When the Bucks had the #1 pick in 2005, they spent the entire run-up to the draft debating between Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams, apparently not giving much thought to taking Chris Paul. Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, this turned out to be a mistake, even though Bogut has become one of the better big men in the league.
In December I wrote that even though Paul has turned out to be better, at the time taking Bogut was still most likely the best move, simply because big men who are worthy of being the #1 pick simply don’t come along that often. Since then Bogut has lived up to expectations, while Paul has exceeded them. My draft ranking methodology doesn’t solve the issue, either, as it ranked Paul as the #1 prospect by the thinnest of margins over Bogut.
But don’t you wonder what would have happened had Larry Harris made a different choice on draft night 2005?
Maybe the ensuing three years would look something like this:
Draft night, 2005: Despite having the 6-foot TJ Ford and 6-1 Mo Williams on the roster, Larry Harris makes the bold move of selecting the 6-foot point guard Chris Paul with the #1 overall pick. The choice is immediately lambasted by every commentator within reach of a microphone or keyboard, as they all immediately point out that Paul is too short to even reach the top shelf at the supermarket. “Larry Harris is an Earl Boykins signing away from cornering the market on midget point guards,� ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons would write. Harris defends himself, saying that the goal was to take the best player available and that the Bucks now have several talented trade chips if TJ Ford is healthy, and a good backup plan if he is not.
2005 Offseason: Larry Harris solidifies his frontcourt by signing Dan Gadzuric (fresh off of a season in which he started 81 games and helped propel the Bucks to 30 wins) to a 6 year, $36 million contract. Asked why he would offer a six year deal to a player who was about to turn 27 years old, Harris said, “Because the 9-year deal he actually signed was rejected by the league office.� When pressed further on why he would commit so much money to a player who had never averaged fewer than 6 fouls per 40 minutes, Harris replied, “What do you mean? $36 million? It’s $3.6 million! It was supposed to be $3.6 million!� before a glazed look came over his eyes, and he frantically ran out of the room while dialing his cell phone.
In July, the Bucks hire Terry Stotts as their new head coach. When reached at the Terry Porter Point Guard Camp for his reaction to the hiring, former head coach Terry Porter said, “That sounds like a good move. After playing in the NBA for 15 years I would obviously have nothing to offer these guys.�
Still patting himself on the back for signing Bobby Simmons and Dan Gadzuric, Larry Harris realizes that he completely forgot that both Gadzuric and Zaza Pachulia were both restricted free agents, so he never actually had to offer Gadzuric anything in the first place. He declines to match an offer to Pachulia from Atlanta for 4 years/$16 million.
Forced to move to Oklahoma City and attempting to clear space for their first round draft pick, Andrew Bogut, get a point guard, and drum up local interest, the Hornets trade Jamaal Magloire and a lottery-protected first round pick to Milwaukee for Desmond Mason and Mo Williams. Three years later, the Bucks have yet to collect on this pick, as New Orleans has not won more than 35 games in a season.
2005 Season: The Bucks debut the season with a starting lineup of TJ Ford, Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Joe Smith and Jamaal Magloire. First round pick Chris Paul shows potential but is incredibly turnover prone, as for some inexplicable reason he is seemingly incapable of throwing an entry pass that Magloire or Gadzuric can catch. It is obviously a weakness in Paul’s game, and one which he simply must rectify. Many columns are written about how taking a small, turnover prone point guard with the #1 pick is always a horrible idea – especially with a perfectly good big man available. However, the Bucks’ record on the court is pretty good, and by New Years, they sit a surprising third in the division.
By March, the Bucks’ record has cooled off a bit, mostly because after Joe Smith’s annual 25-game injury, the team was forced to move Dan Gadzuric into the starting lineup at power forward. That really wasn’t so much a problem, as he actually played pretty well when on the floor, but he averaged seven fouls per 36 minutes played, meaning that it was impossible to keep him on the floor for more than 20 minutes a night.
Meanwhile, a minor point guard controversy was developing, as while TJ Ford’s statistics were a little better than Chris Paul’s, the team “just seems to play better� with Paul on the court.
By the end of the season, Chris Paul supplanted TJ Ford as the starting point guard, and the Bucks would finish on a 6-4 run to win 43 games and take the #5 spot in the playoffs. Despite Paul’s averaging 27 points and 14 assists in the playoffs, the Bucks would lose in seven games to the New Jersey Nets, as the veteran savvy of Jason Kidd carries the day.
Chris Paul would finish second in the rookie of the year balloting to Andrew Bogut, who would be credited with helping the Hornets overcome the horrors of Hurricane Katrina and the paltry fan support in Oklahoma City, and propelling them to 27 wins.
Many media members, however, had tabbed Chris Paul as a savvy draft pick and a future star, with most columnists and pundits saying, “I was right all along about him.�
2006 Offseason: As soon as the season is over, Larry Harris decides that the time is right to commit to Chris Paul as the starting point guard and trades TJ Ford to Toronto for Charlie Villanueva. On draft night, picking at #19, Harris takes the highest-rated small forward still available on my draft scoreboard, Renaldo Balkman.
With Villanueva given the starting power forward job, the Bucks would require one more season of the services of Jamaal Magloire for his only apparent NBA skill – rebounding.
2006 Season: Despite starting the season on a down note with the loss of Bobby Simmons, the Bucks do surprisingly well thanks to the stellar play of Chris Paul (and the surprising defensive tenacity of Balkman). Paul and Villanueva instantly develop fantastic on-court chemistry, as Charlie V seemingly completes three alley-oop plays a game. However, despite Magloire’s best efforts, the Bucks are constantly pounded on the glass, which keeps their record from become anything superlative.
The season would take a turn for the worse with an injury to Charlie Villanueva in November, a sprained ankle in December that would cost Chris Paul 20 games, and a knee injury in January to Michael Redd, and eventually an injury to Joe Smith. In a desperate bid to remain in contention, Larry Harris trades Magloire to Portland for Brian Skinner and Steve Blake, but it does not work. It gets so bad that in one game the Bucks are forced to start Lynn Greer, Steve Blake, Ersan Illyasova, the “19-year-old� Damir Markota, and Gadzuric; a game that would see the Bucks set two NBA records by scoring only 40 points on 9% shooting. Without Chris Paul in the lineup, the Bucks would go 1-19 and on nights when neither Paul or Redd are available, they will go 1-26.
By the time Chris Paul and Michael Redd return from injury the season is long lost, and there are rumors that Terry Stotts’ job security is tenuous. Chris Paul refutes these rumors, saying; “I’m going to make Stotts ‘coach of the year’, and if he’s not here than neither am I.�
In March, assistant coach Larry Krystkowiak would leave the team to take the head coaching position at the University of Utah.
The Bucks would finish the disappointing, injury-riddled season with 32 wins (31-24 when Paul and Redd both suit up), tied with the Portland Trail Blazers for the 6th worst record in the league. In a coin flip for lottery position, the Bucks would take the #6 spot and the Blazers #7.
2006 Off-Season: Incredibly, the Bucks would win the NBA Draft Lottery for the second time in 3 years, and would select Ohio State center Greg Oden.
With the Bucks sitting about $10 million under the salary cap, Larry Harris considers offering a max contract to Rashard Lewis and creating a sign-and-trade with Seattle, before realizing that would be stupid, and also makes a serious offer to Gerald Wallace, who rebuffs the Bucks to resign with Charlotte for slightly more. It seems quite silly for Harris to pursue these options, since Balkman is a considerably less expensive option for the small forward position, but is probably equally as good. What the Bucks need now, since Charlie Villanueva is coming off of a major injury, is a power forward, but they feel confident that Oden will at the very least anchor their defense.
But there are no good power forwards on the free agent marketplace. Harris is seriously considering going into the season well under the salary cap until he hears that the Atlanta Spirit Group, owners of the Atlanta Hawks, had nixed a three-way, pre-draft trade that would have sent Kevin Garnett to Phoenix, the #3 and #11 draft picks (Al Horford and Acie Law), players and a huge trade exception from the Hawks to Minnesota (the Hawks being under the cap, they could take in more salary then they sent out, and the excess is sent back out as a trade exception – essentially “free� cap room for the team receiving it to do with as they see fit) and Amare Stoudemire to Atlanta (note: this offer really did happen, and Atlanta really did shoot it down).
Harris immediately resurrected the trade talks, and eventually brokered a trade sending Kevin Garnett to Phoenix, Amare Stoudemire, Raja Bell and DJ Strawberry to Milwaukee, while Minnesota received Greg Oden, Dan Gadzuric, a $10 million trade exception, and three first round picks (the Bucks’ 2008 pick, and two of Phoenix’s picks). Harris would then quickly resign Joe Smith to back up Villanueva. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Kevin McHale would personally perform Greg Oden’s team physical, and not notice that he needed microfracture knee surgery and would miss the season.
2007 Season: Moving Stoudemire to center and utilizing the offensive skills of Paul, Redd, Villanueva and Stoudemire, Terry Stotts opened up the offense and tried to run everyone else off of the court. After winning 18 of their first 25 games and running an offense that had them nicknamed, “Phoenix East�, the Bucks were the toast of the NBA. Stoudemire and Redd would both average over 25 points per game, both of them and Chris Paul would become All-Stars, and the Bucks would be hailed as the best, most exciting, and best-managed team in the East.
But the true strength of this team would come from its chemistry. It’s funny how often chemistry in basketball has to do with people feeling they are getting enough shots, but considering that the Bucks played at a very fast pace and also started one non-offensively inclined player in Balkman, getting enough shots for Paul, Redd, Villanueva and Stoudemire was not too difficult, minus a few hiccups along the way. At one point, when Redd complained about only getting 22 shots in a game against the Heat, Paul dragged a stool across the locker room, stood on it to see eye-to-eye to Redd and said something along the lines of : “%&@* %$*(^#^%* ($(*%$ ^%*@(^%*(%$#^ *#$%^)(*A%()^ you�.
This established once and for all just who the team leader really was, and Redd responded by averaging over 30 points per game for the next 8, all Bucks wins.
By the end of the season, the Bucks had compiled a 58-24 regular season record, were the #2 seed in the East behind Detroit. The well-read blog, www.thebratwurst.com, nearly folded due to the lack of material to complain about.
Terry Stotts is named coach of the year, and Larry Harris is named executive of the year. He signs a nine year … no, make that six year … contract extension.
Chris Paul would be named prominently in MVP conversation all season, but would eventually finish second behind Kobe Bryant.
In the first round of the playoffs, the young and athletic Bucks have no trouble with the similarly young, but less talented, Philadelphia 76ers, while the #1 seed Pistons were pushed to game seven by the Atlanta Hawks. Things were looking good for this Milwaukee Bucks team to make a return to the finals in …a long, long time. Where they would likely meet the Steve Nash/Kevin Garnett led Phoenix Suns.
2038 Offseason: After 31 seasons as the head coach at the University of Utah, Coach Larry Krystkowiak announces his retirement. Best known for his mantra of “defense, hustling, and playing as a team�, his legacy includes over 800 wins, nine final fours, and four national championships. He would never coach a single player who goes on to play in the NBA.
7 responses so far ↓
1 Brian // May 10, 2008 at 12:38 pm
So I’m not quite sure how you dreamt this one up, but it was quite the entertaining read. I don’t think Larry Harris had the gall to pull off a trade of epic proportions such as the one you mentioned, but I can only dream of a Bucks team featuring Paul and Stoudamire. Thanks for the fiction!
2 Devin // May 10, 2008 at 6:30 pm
That Little Story Was Very Very Interesting….You Should Do Another One…I Would Read Another One If U Do It
3 Jay // May 10, 2008 at 6:31 pm
If only……………….
4 Matthew // May 10, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Haha, I love this blog, just discovered it recently… nice to know there are actually Bucks fans still out there. Anyway, in regards to this post, there are so many bad moves the Harris Era has brought upon itself.. personally I believe the move of selecting Bogut is its least bonehead. You should do an article ranking the most bonehead moves of the Harris Era. My vote would be for the Gadurich signing. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!
5 Brett Boyer // May 11, 2008 at 4:16 am
Matthew, thanks for reading. Here’s a link to a the first part of a series that I did in December about the moves that Harris made.
http://thebratwurst.com/2007/12/19/grading-larry-harris-a-four-part-series/
6 Biz Markie // May 11, 2008 at 8:13 pm
That was brilliant.
7 Darkdude // May 12, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Your logic was ok for some of the stuff, but why would the Bucks trade the first overall draft pick (Greg Oden) who would be 21 in his “first” year in the league, for an older player, considering how young their team would be with Paul, Balkman, Charlie V, and Redd? (23, 25, 24, 29)
And even if they did trade Oden, which they wouldn’t they wouldn’t trade him for Amare, and Minnesotta wouldn’t accept Oden (This is just in my opinion) because Minnesotta would be trading their franchise, the guy who’s led the team to its best years, for an untested and unproven rookie + draft picks. Al Jefferson had a few years under his belt before he was traded, and he was also a more complete player.
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