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Bucks trade Charlie Villanueva for Amir Johnson

July 1st, 2009 by Brett Boyer · No Comments

ESPN is reporting that Charlie Villanueva will sign a 5 year, $40 million deal with Detroit.

Honestly, I don’t see that working out so well for the Pistons. It might not do much for the Bucks either, but that’s another story.

I just don’t see Villanueva as that valuable a player for a team that needs him for 30+ minutes per game. He can do some great things on the court, don’t get me wrong. But when it comes down to it he is inconsistent and defensively challenged. Sort of like Ben Gordon, who the Pistons also signed tonight.

So the Pistons, who added 190 pound Austin Daye and the next Jud Buechler in Chase Budinger in the draft, just blew their $25 million in cap space and now go into the season with the following rotation:

Rodney Stuckey at point (okay start)
Richard Hamilton and Gordon at the two (Hamilton couldn’t handle having Iverson on his team, now he’s supposed to share the position with a guy who just got a 5 year contract for about the same money?)
Tayshaun Prince at small forward, backed up by Budinger.
Charlie V, Jason Maxiell and Daye
Kwame Brown and, if they resign him, Antonio McDyess?

Yikes! See what I mean about Villanueva being a great $4 million player and a lousy $8 million player? It sucks to lose him for nothing, but seriously, is he worth that?

Considering who the Bucks are — a 35 win team that is a long way away from being a title contender — I’d rather have Johnson given the contract situation.

Even though last year was seen as a sort of disapointment for Amir Johnson — he fouled way too much but he is young, a shot blocking maniac (even though he averaged about 8 fouls per 48 minutes, he also averaged a shot block per foul, compared to Charlie V’s 0.44 blocks per foul). Looking at +/- stats is a little misleading because Villanueva played more meaningful minutes than Johnson last year, but with Johnson on the floor the Pistons outscored their opponents by 5 points per game and were outscored by 2.3 ppg without him. The Bucks were outscored by 2.2 ppg with Charlie V and outscored by 0.8 ppg without him last year. Johnson has a reputation as not really knowing what he is doing on defense but having the athletic ability to make up for it. Charlie V has the reputation of not trying all that hard on defense. There is a difference. Give me the guy who is younger, cheaper and (incrementally) more athletic. Lets face it, it’s not like we are rooting for the Lakers or Cavs here. The Bucks aren’t trying to win the championship next year.

NBA.com is also reporting that Josh Childress will visit the Bucks. He is a restricted free agent who doesn’t want to return to Atlanta and a pretty nice player, and it’s possible that a sign-and-trade could be in the works here (Childress signed to a 5 year/$30 million deal and traded for Luke Ridnour and Mbah a Moute?) Atlanta is not over the salary cap and thus would not have much incentive to make a trade such as that, except that they would get something for Childress.

Childress will be 26 this year, so should be in his prime. I doubt anything will come of it, though, because of the damage that would cause to the efforts to get under the salary cap.

→ No CommentsTags: Atlanta Hawks · Charlie Villanueva · Detroit Pistons · Luc Mbah a Moute · Luke Ridnour


Why Charlie V Had To Go

June 30th, 2009 by Brett Boyer · No Comments

It wasn’t the luxury tax.

The Bucks could have offered a qualifying offer to Villanueva for about $4.5 million this year — a 1 year deal that would have allowed him to be a restricted free agent this year or made him a free agent next year. However, instead they let him walk now. Why?

As a favor to his agent. It would be sort of a dick move to try and force Charlie V to play out one more year with the Bucks when they don’t have any intention of signing him to a long term deal. As I’ve mentioned before, I never thought they felt he was worth a big raise, considering Scott Skiles couldn’t see fit to give him over 30 mpg last season, even though he was their best player the second half of the season. Honestly, I agree with that assessment.

By the numbers, Villanueva had his best season as a pro last year, but he did it in the same way that Zach Randolph looked great in his final season with Portland. Villanueva took more shots this past year than he ever has in the past. Because he’s a pretty efficient scorer that makes his overall numbers look great compared with his past body of work. But put him on a good team (or a team with several other efficient scorers) and he will get fewer shots and his numbers will drop. He’s a great $4 million/year player, but a lousy $10 million/year player.

Meanwhile the Bucks needed to clear the roster spot. Assuming Bruce Bowen gets bought out and adding Brandon Jennings and Jodie Meeks, the Bucks would have 16 guaranteed contracts if Villanueva is included (and assuming that Elson and Allen pick up their options). But they would need to get the roster down to 15. They could have released (but still paid) Salim Stoudamire, but they might have to do that anyway should Ersan Ilyasova decide to come back to Milwaukee (and is not included in a trade). This also assumes Meeks makes the team. The last roster spot might come down to Stoudamire’s guaranteed contract vs. Meeks’ non-guaranteed one.

So why do a favor for Villanueva’s agent, Jeff Schwartz by allowing him to negotiate a new contract for Charlie V without the threat that the Bucks would match any offers? Because his firm, Excel Sports, represents another member of the team, one that management likely has a sweet spot for. Somebody who they will want to resign in a couple of years, but someone who they will try to avoid breaking the bank for.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

→ No CommentsTags: Milwaukee Bucks

The Brandon Jennings Circus Begins

June 29th, 2009 by Jeramey Jannene · No Comments

Brandon Jennings has delivered his first gem to the Milwaukee media.  Talking to rapper Joe Budden, Jennings delivered exactly what he has managed to avoid during the past year in Italy, a profanity-laced tirade directed at teammates and opposing players.

To be fair, I think there is a good chance Jennings didn’t know he was on the air, but a player still has to have some self-awareness.  I had a flash back to the Todd Day “damn Milwakee” video.

I provide you the link to the dialogue with a full disclaimer that it’s at a “not safe for work (NSFW)” language level.  SportingNews has the story and the dialogue between Jennings and Budden.

As a positive from the conversation, Jennings did not rip on Milwaukee or Scott Skiles.  That’s a good sign.

→ No CommentsTags: Brandon Jennings

Bye Bye RJ, We hardly Knew Ya …. Draft Time Now!

June 24th, 2009 by Brett Boyer · No Comments

Hi everybody! If there’s anyone left to say hi to, since I haven’t written anything in several months, then I really appreciate your coming around. I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts about the Jefferson trade and the NBA Draft.

The Jefferson trade salary dump was the sort of thing the Bucks were going to have to do. There is simply no reason to have a luxury tax-level team if you are only going to win 38 games. RJ is a nice enough player, but he’s totally overpaid at $14 million per. I only wish they had managed to trade him at the deadline last year instead of waiting until now, because then the cost savings for next year would be even greater.

But the real key to the deal was Hammond swinging a trade of Oberto for Amir Johnson.

Johnson was the last high school player taken in the draft, a 2nd round pick that was likely John Hammond’s pet project. He’s only 22 and is an incredible athlete who has played very little but has always put up plenty of blocks and steals, while managing a poster dunk just about every time on the floor. He struggled last year in his first year as a contributor for the Pistons, but in previous years had killed the D-League (to the tune of 25/10). It could be that he had a hard time playing alongside Rasheed Wallace, it could be that he developed some attitude problems after signing his second contract (3/$11, expires after the 09/10 season), and it could be that he just had a bad season last year. He’s not really a Scott Skiles player (no offensive game beyond the dunk, but he shot 59% last year, trouble with defensive positioning and help) but clearly Hammond loves him. He actually could bust out this year into something special. It’s like getting another first round pick.

As far as what this means for resigning Villanueva and Sessions:

The new rumors are that the Bucks are looking to trade Ridnour as well, which sounds like a clear sign that they want to sign Sessions whether or not they draft a point guard this year. Which is fine — if they get a point guard like Jrue Holliday, once Michael Redd’s contract expires, they would have a similar back court to the Hinrich/Gordon combo the Bulls used under Skiles. It’s wasy to forget that combo was pretty successful for a couple of years.

I’d be wary of signing Villanueva to a long term deal. Even though his numbers were great last year, Skiles still didn’t see fit to play him over 30 minutes per game. I get the feeling that part of the reason his overall numbers were so good was that Skiles played him perfectly — leave him out there when he’s playing well, yank him as soon as it appears his concentration is starting to drift. I don’t think Charlie V will ever be consistent enough to be a great 35+ MPG player, although he’s a really good 30 MPG guy. That means he’s reasonably paid at $4 mil a year, but would be grossly overpaid at $10+. I would extend Villanueva the 1 year tender offer and let him be an unrestricted free agent after the season. Besides, with the collective bargaining agreement expiring after this year, there is a good chance that the next CBA will change free agency enough that Villanueva would have little choice but to return to the Bucks for pretty reasonable money.

The Jefferson trade means that the Bucks now go into next season (not including the draft picks) looking like this:

Sessions/Ridnour
Redd/Bell
Mbah a Moute/Alexander
Villanueva/Johnson
Bogut/Thomas/Gadzuric/Elson

That’s not a team poised to make a huge leap forward. But by trading Jefferson to free up room for Moute, Alexander and Johnson at least there is a little more hope for the future. This team will still be lucky to win 42 games next year.

On to the draft. Which sucks.

My Draft Preview, which uses the same methodology as last year, is available here.

Thoughts on a few players:

Ricky Rubio: He’s #1. Not only did he put up solid numbers for a good team in the world’s 2nd toughest league (the Spanish League), he did it by shooting only 38%. However, he also had a wrist injury that caused him to miss some time and when he did come back, made it nearly impossible for him to shoot the ball for a large part of the season. He’s going to be a star, no matter what Brandon Jennings says.

Nick Calathes: I know you are saying, “Who does he have rated #2?” But Calathes put up great number with Florida last year and can really take care of the ball. He’s draft eligible but will be playing in Greece this season and possibly next year as well. Which actually makes drafting him a nice cost saving move for some team, because they will retain his rights but not have to pay him for a while.

Hasheem Thabeet: Bust. I’ve never been impressed with his athleticism at all. He just looks clumsy when grabbing rebounds and seems to have trouble holding them in traffic. He also has no offensive game. It is often said that he hasn’t played basketball that long, but he will be turning 22 this year — he’s not all that young either.

What should the Bucks do?

Since Rubio will obviously be gone, I would target Jrue Holliday first. Big and quick, he has the skill set to eventually combine with Sessions in a dual scoring guard role. He takes defense seriously. He’s from a solid family. Even though his season at UCLA was termed “disapointing”, he still showed enough to rank #9 in my rankings, and he did a good job of racking up the assists, steals and blocks while keeping his turnover rate low.

Johnny Flynn also intrigues me, but is likely to be gone. I’m not a big fan of Stephen Curry (for reasons I can’t exactly put my finger on, but I guess I don’t like small shooting specialists that much. Seems like those sort of players have a hard time scoring enough to make up for what they give up at the other end) and Brandon Jennings doesn’t excite me either (no frontin’).

If Hammond panics and decides he has to take a small forward, like Gerald Henderson or Chase Budinger, I will break my television. If he absolutely has to take a SF, though, Terrence Williams has the necessary track record. Without age as a consideration, Williams rates as my #1 prospect. he takes care of the ball and was an exceptionally good rebounder for someone who played a lot of shooting guard.

Looking in another direction, DeJuan Blair has some serious “Paul Millsap” potential in him, as he was an absolutely amazing rebounder at Pitt. That’s a skill that should transfer well to the NBA. I’m not as excited about Jordan Hill — he put up decent scoring and rebounding numbers at Arizona, but did little else and needs to gain weight.

James Harden could also be an intriguing prospect should he fall (which is unlikely). He is only my #10 prospect, but had he come out last year would have been in my top 5. He just had a worse sophomore season than his freshman year at Arizona State.

So there you have it. I’m hoping for Jrue Holliday. And for the second round … you heard it here first: either Victor Claver or Leo Lyons.

→ No CommentsTags: Milwaukee Bucks

NBA on Twitter

March 16th, 2009 by Jeramey Jannene · 2 Comments

If you’re on Twitter and reading this site, undoubtedly you’re probably interested in who else in the NBA might be on Twitter.

We’ve attempted to put all of those accounts for you in one place, NBAonTwitter.com.  Use it, abuse it, and share it with your friends, we would really appreciate it.

→ 2 CommentsTags: Milwaukee Bucks

No deals at the deadline … and now this?

February 19th, 2009 by Brett Boyer · 1 Comment

Forget the no-trade of Richard Jefferson, or the injuries to Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd and Luke Ridnour — now Bango managed to ruin his knee by falling through the hoop at an All-Star Weekend event?

This is getting ridiculous! I’m almost scared to go to the game tomorrow now, lest the team try to kill me with a t-shirt again!

(Which reminds me of something I saw earlier this year — you know the t-shirts attatched to parachutes that fall from the rafters during the first quarter? Well, I saw a shirt earlier this year come loose from the parachute when it was released. It fell straight down from the rafters — what’s that, maybe 60 feet? — landing squarely onto the head of a kid who was about 10 years old in the next section over from me. He had no idea what hit him — he almost started fighting with the kid next to him because he thought he had gotten smacked in the head for no reason. To add insult to injury, the jerk sitting behind the kid picked the shirt up on a bounce and kept it.)

Okay, so no more Redd, Bogut or Bango but at least Ridnour is supposed to be coming along well from his broken thumb and by not making a trade on Thursday the Bucks have serious salary cap problems now.

Here’s the issue. The cap this year is $58.6 million, and the luxury tax level is $71.15 million. The Bucks are right at the luxury tax threshold (HoopsHype has them listed at $71.2) but there are a couple of exceptions for minimum players so they shouldn’t be a payer this year. But that’s a lot of money for a borderline-.500 team when healthy, no?

Next year, it gets ugly. Assuming Francisco Elson and Malik Allen invoke their player options, the Bucks owe a little over $65 million to 10 players. That doesn’t include Ramon Sessions, who will be a Gilbert Arenas-clause restricted free agent (which means nobody can offer him a contract starting over the midlevel exception, so the Bucks can match any deal as long as they have not yet used the exception) and Villanueva, who has a $4.6 million qualifying offer. So for the Bucks to bring back the same team next year, it will cost them about $76 million (assuming $5 mil for Sessions and $2 mil for their first round pick).

But the real problem here is that the salary cap, because of the economic state the country is in, will most likely go down next year. This Bucks roster could find themselves $8 million or more into the luxury tax — for a borderline playoff team!

Maybe Portland or Cleveland were the ones to walk away from the Jefferson for either Sczcerbiak or LaFrentz trades, but if John Hammond was the one to turn them down then it was fiscally irresponsible for him to do so.

Now, by waiting until next offseason, there really isn’t anything Hammond can do, except try to make an offseason trade to a team with significant cap room (so the Bucks can take back less salary then they sent out). So who is going to have major cap room this offseason?

Atlanta

Detroit

Oklahoma City

Memphis

The thing is that Oklahoma City, for example, isn’t going to be interested in something like “Dan Gadzuric for Damien Wilkins”. No, they will be thinking more along the lines of “You’ve got luxury tax problems, eh? How about Andrew Bogut and a sign-and-trade of Ramon Sessions for Nenad Kristic and one of the first rounders San Antonio owes us?”

This is bad. Really, really bad. Like Herb Kohl staring a $30 million operating loss next year in the face bad.

→ 1 CommentTags: Andrew Bogut · John Hammond · Ramon Sessions · Richard Jefferson

Jefferson to be moved out today?

February 19th, 2009 by Brett Boyer · No Comments

ESPN is reporting that the Bucks have a couple of deals in the works to try and dump the salary of Richard Jefferson.

The two potential deals, they report, are Jefferson to Cleveland for Wally Sczcerbiak or to Portland for Raef LaFrentz.

Both of these deals are outright salary dumps, with Sczcerbiak having an expiring $13 million contract and LaFrentz and expiring $12.7 million deal. LaFrentz is injured, and 80% of his salary is being paid for by insurance. Jefferson is owed $29.2 million over the next two years.

If the Bucks pull off one of these trades, they will drop to only $40 million committed to salary for next year, making it easy for them to afford to re-sign either or both of Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva if they choose. They will also be able to withstand the potential drop in the salary cap that may be coming down the pipe next year.

From Cleveland’s perspective, I’m not sure why they would make that trade. Since LeBron James plays 40 minutes per game at Jefferson’s primary position, why bother adding him? Is it really logical to pay two small forwards — James and Jefferson — a combined $30 million next season when one of them is the most dominant player in the game?

Portland, though, might be a more intriguing option. They have been looking for a small forward for some time, and are apparently trying to work out a deal for Gerald Wallace as well. However, Wallace is better, younger, and paid less than Jefferson; so Charlotte is trying to make a trade that would include some of Portland’s younger players. The Bucks could do the trade on simply a 1-for-1 basis (or maybe with one other Portland player thrown in), causing less damage to the Blazer’s core roster. Jefferson also has a reputation as a solid character and would fit in the Portland clubhouse well (not a knock on Wallace, there’s nothing wrong with him either) and would be a good complement for Brandon Roy. Since LaFrentz’s contract is covered by insurance, the Bucks would likely have to chip in some cash to make up the difference between the money the Blazers are not playing LaFrentz and what they would have to pay Jefferson.

Hopefully John Hammond gets one of these trades done. The team has played pretty well without Bogut and Redd, but the writing is on the wall: if Richard Jefferson is your best player, the best you can hope for is to be a really well-coached team that is pretty competitive most nights. The team is that, at least. But there aren’t going to be many more wins this year with Jefferson or without him — certainly not enough to justify the massive (and possibly luxury tax-inflicting) contract he has. The Bucks are better off moving Jefferson and playing Joe Alexander more for the rest of the year.

Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons for nothing. Thanks, Larry Harris.

→ No CommentsTags: Cleveland Cavaliers · Portland Trail Blazers · Richard Jefferson

Oh Man, What Now?

February 4th, 2009 by Brett Boyer · 2 Comments

First of all, I want to thank all of the commentors who have given me crap for not writing much any more. Between work and having two young kids, I don’t have the time to write any more. It’s not so much the writing that is time-consuming — last year I only had one kid and was staying at home with him, so I had plenty of time to think about interesting things to write. This year, it’s totally different — I have responsibilities from about 6:30 am until 8:30 pm every day, and by then it’s all I can do to even watch a basketball game, much less think about something good to write about it. I really enjoyed producing an excellent blog last year (and the amount of writing I did was very helpful in that it kept my skills sharp for when I went back to work). I hate to be letting it go in the way I have, but I’d rather not write than just throw up some crap posts fairly regularly that are no more than glorified twitters.

Anyway, where is this team now?

Screwed in just about every way.

Lets see if I can recap:

– At full strength, this was an exciting team that had an outside shot at maybe the #5 seed and a chance to advance to the second round. Most likely, they were going to wind up with the #6 seed and could hopefully give Orlando a scare (a team which I have been completely wrong about for two years now. They are good).
– Then Michael Redd got hurt. For a well coached team, losing Redd was not a total disaster. Sure, it probably lowered the ceiling of the team from the #5 seed to the #7 (and getting blown away by Boston), but in the games Redd had missed the team had only averaged about 4 points per game less than with him. Most of his scoring could be picked up with relative ease by other players.
– Then Andrew Bogut’s injury turned out to be a stress fracture that will cost him the next two months. To be honest, I consider this diagnosis to be a positive one. I was starting to worry that his back issue might become one of those Tracy McGrady-style trick backs, where the guy is just perpetually questionable for the rest of his career. Fortunately, a stress fracture should heal.

This, however, leaves the team completely screwed. They have no chance at the playoffs with a frontcourt rotation of Gadzuric, Elson, Malik Allen and Villanueva. However, with Bogut and Redd signed to long-term contracts, just trying to dump salary doesn’t really make sense. The team would have no interest in trading away the two players who would likely garner the most interest around the league — Ramon Sessions and LR Mbah a Moute are fairly untouchable, and their contract status means they are both important to the Bucks and hard to include in other trades. Obviously, Dan Gadzuric has no trade value unless the Bucks take back something even worse in exchange.

What do the Bucks do? How do they make a big move without shafting themselves in the long run?

First of all, I would be more than willing to trade this years’ first round pick. The draft looks awful this year, and between Sessions and Moute, the Bucks have a couple of young, inexpensive players to fill out their rotation.

The best option is to try and trade for one of the superstar players who has an expiring contract after next year. Players like Bosh and Stoudemire have recently been rumored to be on the block, and should the Bucks be able to get one of them, they could be poised to make a 1-year run next year.

The deals?

1: Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, Luke Ridnour and Damon Jones for Amare Stoudemire and Jason Richardson. Phoenix would save $5 million on this deal, as Jones’ contract expires and Villanueva could be renounced after the season. Charlie V’s per-40 minute numbers compare pretty favorably with Stoudemire’s this season, and the trade would allow the Bucks to audition Alexander and Moute for the starting small forward position next year. It would also solidify Ramon Sessions as the point guard of the future. A starting lineup next year of Sessions/Redd/Moute/Stoudemire/Bogut with Richardson off the bench would be a nice group. It would likely only be a one-year run, though, as Stoudemire would be a free agent after the season, and with Redd, Richardson and Bogut owed $43 million in 2010/11, it’s unlikely Herb Kohl would be able to pay what it would take to keep him.

However, Stoudemire is pretty much known as a pain in the ass. What about Chris Bosh?

2: Bosh and Kapono for Jefferson, Alexander, Jones and a first round pick. It’s tough to come up with a reasonable deal with Toronto, since should they actually decide to deal Bosh, the Bucks don’t really have what they want. They wouldn’t need Jefferson and wouldn’t get much cap relief on the deal, and Joe Alexander and the likely-#15 pick in the draft isn’t a fair return for a perennial all-star. But if Bosh is going to walk after next year, maybe they would be willing. Not likely, though.

3: Jefferson and Jones for Shawn Marion. If Miami is serious about building around Michael Beasley, maybe they would be willing to turn Marion into a true small forward. This would kill Miami’s cap room after the season and would do nothing for the Bucks after this year, but would make a huge difference in the Bucks’ cap situation for the next two years and would clear up the small forward position as well. Marion is a prima-donna head case, but would probably put up huge numbers for the Bucks as he plays for his next contract with someone else. Losing Marion next year would make it easier to resign Ramon Sessions (and pick up Richard Hendrix out of the D-League. There I go again.)

Three deals that wont happen. But that just illustrates the quandry the Bucks find themselves in right now — they are built to win now, but have an incredibly low ceiling with Bogut and Redd hurt.

→ 2 CommentsTags: Charlie Villanueva · John Hammond · Milwaukee Bucks · Richard Jefferson

Larry Harris: Still screwing the Bucks

January 11th, 2009 by Brett Boyer · 6 Comments

A couple of stories floating around the newswires this weekend suggest that the Bucks may be on the verge of making a trade, with the Boston Globe saying that other teams have shown interest in Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions, with the Memphis Commercial Appeal saying that the Bucks have talked with the Grizzlies about a Mike Conley for Sessions and Joe Alexander trade.

In the Commercial Appeal, Ronald Tillery writes that the Bucks would be willing to do the trade because “Some” think that Alexander is a bust and that the Bucks won’t be able to resign Sessions when he is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Meanwhile, he seems to think the Bucks would want Conley despite the fact that he sucks and apparently doesn’t care that he lost his starting job. Personally, I’ve never thought much about Conley’s game. Think TJ Ford without the instincts, Mo Williams without the jump shot and Ramon Sessions without the ability to get to the line. That about sums it up. Plus, he’s a horrible shooter who for some reason shoots lefty despite not being left handed. How can he possibly improve his shot if he insists on using his off hand?

Once again, Tillery proves that apparently the main requirement for being an NBA beat writer is to not know anything about the game.

Sessions will not be an unrestricted free agent. Under the Gilbert Arenas clause (the simple explanation), teams offering Sessions a deal will have to structure it so that the first year’s salary is equal to the midlevel exception, before ballooning to the full value of the contract in later seasons. This means that as long as the team holding the players’ rights has not already used its midlevel they will retain the ability to match regardless of whether or not they are over the cap.

However, Tillery does have a point — the Bucks do need to do something or they might be screwed by the luxury tax next year whether they retain Sessions and Villanueva or not.

The salary cap this year is $58.68 million and the luxury tax level this season is $71.15 million. The Bucks are currently hard up against that at $70.61 million. The Bucks currently have $63.5 million committed to 9 players next year (assuming Malik Allen and Francisco Elson activate their player options), plus the Bucks have to allow for a first round pick and hold a $4.6 million qualifying offer on Charlie V. This also doesn’t include the terms of Mbah a Moute’s second year, but one would assume that is about 800K. So if they don’t do anything at all the Bucks would be right at $70 million already for next year, and that doesn’t include Sessions.

That’s no problem if the salary cap and luxury tax go up by their typical 5% next year. But what if the cap stays the same or even goes down next year?

The cap is set as a percentage of the previous seasons’ basketball related income (currently 51%). Attendance and TV ratings have slid this year, and with the state of the economy, one has to assume that things like luxury box revenues and season ticket rolls are down. I would not be surprised at all to see the cap drop next year. Meaning the Bucks may already be looking at themselves as a tax paying team next year.

This situation is all Larry Harris’ fault. Why? Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell.

This illustrates perfectly why you should never sign guys who are not going to be starters for you to long term deals. Backup centers and swing men are a dime a dozen. Signing them to long deals ruins your roster and cap flexibility, and if you found those guys for cheap in the first place then there are more players like them out there. I pounded the Bell contract at the time and now, just one year later, here it is hurting them.

What do the Bucks do now? It’s tricky. And trading Sessions might be the only answer.

Villanueva is very difficult to trade because he is eligible for a contract extension next season, meaning that the team that gets him has to either be ready to win now and/or really want him for the long term.

The only teams that I could see wanting to take on Gadzuric in exchange for getting Villanueva and sending back expiring deals would be a team that thinks they can win a title right now. And that means Cleveland, Boston or the Lakers.

Boston might actually be interested in getting an offensive boost from Villanueva and some extra fouls to give in Gadzuric, but they don’t have any contracts to send back.

Villanueva, Gadzuric and either Elson or Allen for Wally Sczcerbiak would also work and would make some sense for Cleveland, but they are rolling along so well right now that they probably don’t need to make a trade like that.

Lamar Odom has been a complete enigma for the Lakers, who cannot figure out where or how to use him alongside Gasol and Bynum. Odom has an expiring $11.4 million contract, so Gadzuric and Villanueva would work, but that would actually add salary to the Bucks and would push them into the luxury tax this season. Also, there is no guarantee that the Lakers would have any less trouble fitting Villanueva into the system as they do Odom.

So you see? There probably isn’t much of a market for Charlie V right now considering that the Bucks would likely insist that the contract of Gadzuric be included in the deal.

So maybe the only answer is to trade Sessions.

→ 6 CommentsTags: Milwaukee Bucks

What we can all learn from the Trail Blazers

January 9th, 2009 by Brett Boyer · 4 Comments

The Darius Miles saga has been running in the background this NBA season, but it has some major implications for the league over the next couple of year. Basically, Miles is under contract to the Trail Blazers for two more seasons at $9 million per. Miles had not played for a couple of years, both because he was battling back from a major knee injury and because the Blazers didn’t want him around.

Since Portland couldn’t get out from under his contract by trading him while he was hurt, they instead tried to claim that he was retired due to his medical condition. This way, even though he would still get paid his money, his contract would fall off of the Blazer’s salary cap, pushing them well under the cap after this season.

The problem here is that Miles can play. Maybe he’s not good enough to actually play a significant role in the NBA any more, but he is healthy enough to get on the court. He played 6 preseason games with Boston and 2 games with Memphis. He only played 9 regular season minutes total, but registered two blocked shots and made no trips to the hospital, showing that his knee is at least healthy enough to allow him to play in a game. Unlike the conditions of, say, Sean Elliott or Alonzo Mourning a few years back, where the exertion of playing in a basketball game with their kidney conditions could have caused a potentially fatal complication.

NBA rules state that the Blazers will be able to claim the medical retirement clause on Miles if he plays fewer than 10 games this year. It turns out that the rule includes both preseason and regular season games, so Miles is now only 2 games away from having his salary go back on the Blazers’ books.

The Trail Blazers’ front office doesn’t like that, and so they have decided to try and keep Miles off of the court in the true American Way: by threatening litigation.

According to Yahoo! Sports and other media outlets, the Blazers sent an email to the front offices of the other NBA teams, stating:

Team Presidents and General Managers,

The Portland Trail Blazers are aware that certain teams may be contemplating signing Darius Miles to a contract for the purpose of adversely impacting the Portland Trail Blazers Salary Cap and tax positions. Such conduct from a team would violate its fiduciary duty as an NBA joint venturer. In addition, persons or entities involved in such conduct may be individually liable to the Portland Trail Blazers for tortuously interfering with the Portland Trail Blazers’ contract rights and perspective economic opportunities.

Please be aware that if a team engages in such conduct, the Portland Trail Blazers will take all necessary steps to safeguard its rights, including, without limitation, litigation.

Needless to say, the NBA is already not very happy about one team trying to strong-arm the others into shunning a player, and if I was Darius Miles’ agent, I would have been calling labor law lawyers first thing this morning. in fact, the Blazers are already backing off on their stance, sending out another statement saying that Miles has cleared waivers and can sign with another team.

Now, what should the Bucks do about this? What would I have done if I was in John Hammond’s shoes?

Simple. I would have immediately sent out an email to the other teams, telling them all that if the Bucks lose another game this season then Herb Kohl would crush them all like a bug:

Dear (NBA GM or Owner, especially you, Paul Allen):

The Milwaukee Bucks are aware that certain teams are spending the duration of most games against us in a systematic effort to score more points than us, adversely impacting our ability to win games. The addition of losses to our record has a significant negative impact on our financial standing through revenue loss from such sources including but not limited to playoff ticket sales, arena signage during national television appearances, and local television and radio ratings. Such conduct from said opponents violates their fiduciary duty as an NBA joint venturer. In addition, persons or entities involved in such conduct may be individually liable to the Milwaukee Bucks for tortuously interfering with the Milwaukee Bucks’ contract rights and perspective economic opportunities.

Please be aware that if a team engages in such conduct that results in a Milwaukee Bucks opponent scoring more points than the Milwaukee Bucks and the Milwaukee Bucks incurring a loss, the Milwaukee Bucks will take all necessary steps to safeguard its rights, including, without limitation, litigation, and our owner, who is only a freaking Senator, making sure that whatever business your teams’ primary owner is involved in is legislated out of existence.

Starting today, that’s how the Milwaukee Bucks roll.

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