The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

I don’t know if John Hammond is paying attention, but after the Yi/RJ trade and the draft, the Bucks’ roster has some pretty big holes. Take a look and see if you know what I mean:

PG: Mo Williams, Ramon Sessions
SG: Michael Redd, Charlie Bell
SF: Richard Jefferson, Desmond Mason, Joe Alexander, Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute, Awvee Storey*
PF: Charlie Villanueva
C: Andrew Bogut, Dan Gadzuric
(*I’m not sure if Storey’s deal is guaranteed)

Am I the only person who thinks that a 12-man roster with three guys taller than 6′8″ is a problem? Especially when one of them is Danny G?

It’s not as though trading for a starting caliber power forward is going to be easy. There simply aren’t many of them out there. I wanted to write one of my “12 potential trades that won’t happen” columns, but it was impossible. I couldn’t really find any decent power forwards who the Bucks would want and who their current teams would be willing to give up. Mo Williams for Udonis Haslem? Mo and Charlie V for Chris Wilcox and Luke Ridnour? Gadzuric, Villanueva, Mason and a #1 for Elton Brand? Those are silly ideas. You could probably get a stopgap power forward from Sacramento, but do you really want one of Kenny Thomas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore or Shelden Williams?

Maybe Hammond is hoping that the Detroit fire sale starts soon. Mo, Mason and a #1 for Chauncey Billups and Amir Johnson or Mason, Villanueva and Bell for Rasheed Wallace would work but neither of those ideas sound like something that Joe Dumars would do.

The more I think about it, the more I think Hammond was taken by surprise in this draft. The Yi-Jefferson trade came out of nowhere, so it probably happened so close to the draft that the Bucks didn’t have much of a plan “B” beyond taking Alexander. Most likely, they made the Yi trade hoping that one of Kevin Love, Eric Gordon or Russell Westbrook would slide to them; but when the player to slip was Jerryd Bayless (who was supposed to go #4 or #6, so the Bucks had not worked him out) they didn’t know what to do.

So what does it all mean? Will Hammond be able to pull off something incredible or are we going to try the Bogut-Villanueva combo again, and hope that it works this time? I’m not really sure.

If the best they can do is sign Brian Skinner to be Villanueva’s backup, I’m going to be mighty upset.

Some other things of note:

Don’t forget that Ersan Ilyasova is still Bucks property. There’s no way they sign him and add him to this years’ roster since they don’t need a small forward, but he could be signed and traded.

Also, the final thing I am going to mention about Richard Hendrix (unless he turns out to be really good or gets released in training camp): according to Draft Express, his draft stock fell because of a knee injury that was uncovered at the predraft camp (despite his apparently playing well there). Draft Express points out that not only were Hendrix’s college numbers almost identical to Carlos Boozer’s, but Boozer also fell in the draft for the same reason.

If you are interested in the NBA Draft, I suggest donating to Draft Express. By making a donation, you will be able to view the site with no pop-up ads, which is well worth it.

After the Richard Jefferson trade, I thought for sure that it meant the Bucks would go in a different direction than Joe Alexander. I was hoping that Kevin Love would slip all the way to 8, and when Jerryd Bayless turned out to be the player to slide, I thought that would be the direction the Bucks would turn.

But now … small forward has become a glut, and suddenly we really need a power forward.

When it’s all said and done, Alexander should turn out to be a good pick. Players like Bayless and Anthony Randolph will slide for one reason — because teams think there is either something wrong with their heads (not a question about either Bayless or Randolph) or their games. My guess is that the Bucks never even had Bayless in for a workout in the first place (since he was supposed to go either #4 or #6). So when the RJ/Yi trade came down the pipe, the Bucks weren’t ready to look in another direction.

Here’s my thoughts about Alexander. He doesn’t grade out all that well in my draft rankings, but the optimist would point out that his numbers improved dramatically as the season went along. He graded out as one of the best athletes and strongest players at the NBA predraft camp. In interviews he sounds like a believer in making himself the best player he can be and in (channeling Larry Brown) playing the “right” way. Scott Skiles and Andrew Bogut should love playing with him.

I’ve said before that when assessing small forwards, I like to think of the answer to: “What would happen if he has to guard LeBron James for a whole game?” Since the best athletes play small forward, in order to be a good one you have to be able to stick the best athletes.

Obviously, you can’t stop LeBron. But would he make you look bad or would he make you look laughably bad?

I can see Alexander, with his combination of size and strength, being able to at least make LeBron work hard. Compare that to Yi — LeBron would score 100 on him.

I hope the Bucks aren’t thinking that Alexander will eventually become a power forward, because that would waste his open-court skills.

Alexander will be 22 years old, so while he may not necessarily have the ceiling to become a star, that may not be a bad thing at all. The Bucks have two cornerstone type of players in Bogut and Redd, so maybe a career dirty-work role player is what they are really looking for here.

I am not excited in the least about Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in the second round. Not at all. His numbers were very poor — a 0.57 IPM is simply pathetic. He’s supposed to be a defensive specialist, but he’s going to have to play small forward at the NBA level, as he only measured out at 6′5 3/4 without shoes at the predraft camp. He is shorter and lighter than Joe Alexander … and he’s going to have to change positions after playing power forward in college.

On the bright side, he is actually a prince in his village in Cameroon, so at least we can say we got Prince Akeem from “Coming to America”.

Oh, and about Richard Hendrix — he is taller than Mbah a Moute and was exactly twice as productive last season. And Hendrix doesn’t play the same position as your first round pick or the guy you just traded for. Unbelieveable.

If you really wanted to draft for defense and didn’t want Hendrix, then why not take Kyle Weaver, who went with the very next pick? For a guy who supposedly is only good for defense, Weaver was efficient enought offensively to rank as my #11 prospect. I see Weaver as a player who has a good chance to become a taller Charlie Bell (but the 04-07 version, not last seasons).

I can’t believe that I’m going to bed tonight angry that the Bucks blew their second round draft pick. What’s wrong with me?

According to CNN-SI, the Bucks have agreed to trade Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons for Richard Jefferson.

Wow.

From a basketball standpoint, I love it.

From a financial standpoint, if the Bucks are willing to do it, then I’m all for it.

What’s most interesting about this move is that it sure does throw the idea of drafting Joe Alexander by the wayside. Does John Hammond have another trade up his sleeve to move up in the draft? Villanueva and the #8 pick for ….. what?

I’ve never been the biggest Richard Jefferson fan, as I’ve always felt he was a little overrated and benefited greatly from playing with Jason Kidd. But even if he falls off by 10% as a member of the Bucks then he’s still better than Yi — and light years better than Bobby Simmons. The Bucks actually take on salary in the trade, as Jefferson is owed $15 million in 2010/11 on a contract that is one year longer than Simmons’.

In my combined offensive/defensive IPM rankings, Jefferson looks like an okay offensive player and a pretty lousy defender. Whether that’s true or not, I don’t quite know, but the Nets were a much better team with Jefferson on the court than not, being out scored by 5 pp/48 with him on the floor and 7.5 with him off, according to 82games.com. Jefferson has an injury-prone reputation, but that’s not true — he has had two major injuries (a broken hand and something else I can’t remember) but in his five other seasons has played at least 78 games. He averaged almost 40 mpg last season.

So long, Simmons, we hardly knew ya.

But the big part of the story is that the Yi phenomenon has petered out, and that’s probably a good thing for Milwaukee. There wasn’t much he did in his rookie season to suggest that he is going to become a great player, as you can’t really expect his ability to get his shot off in traffic to improve much. It’s too bad. Drafting him was probably a good gamble. But I think we saw enough of Yi on the court to know he wasn’t really worth all the hype. When your most devastating skill is a beautiful 22-foot jumper your ceiling is always going to be limited because any defense will let you shoot that shot all night — because you wont make more than 45% of them, even if you are the best shooter in the world. Yi needs more post moves, he needs more quickness, and he needs to hold on to the ball better. Maybe that will come in time, but I think we saw enough to know that the best he will ever become is “okay”.

So who wants Villanueva and the #8? How about Memphis for the #5?

Don’t annoint John Hammond as a hero GM just yet — he may have just added an average player with a brutal cap-killer contract. But he addressed a team weakness, and if this move frees him up to make a big splash with another move, then today might wind up being a great day to be a Bucks fan.

According to Brew Hoop, the Bucks had Richard Hendrix in for a workout along with some other second round potentials. As you probably know, I have been all over Hendrix since he first declared for the draft.

Lets hope this one happens!

(Edit — draft changed to reflect the fact that I forgot that Ty Lawson and Chase Budinger had returned to school)

I’ve been way too busy lately to write much, and I apologize. But I’ve heard enough odd rumors that I’m ready to put together a new draft preview.

My prospect rankings are here, and here we go with the predictions:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. When it’s all said and done, there is no way the Bulls don’t draft and keep Rose.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. I’ve heard all sorts of rumors (including Mo Williams and the #8 for Udonis Haslem and the #2) but I don’t think any of them will come to fruition. Whether Miami takes Beasley for themselves or someone else, they still take Beasley. I think they will wind up keeping him.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Sounds like NBA types are convinced that Mayo is the third-best player in the draft, and someone is likely to try and trade into this spot. Another fairly ridiculous rumor has the Bucks trading Charlie V and the #8 for the #3. Won’t happen.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. One thing about Bayless, his character isn’t in question. He’s the pick here.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. I still think they take him, I just don’t know if they will keep him.

6: New York, Dalino Gallinari. I’m back to thinking he goes to the Knicks. Gallinari, much like Yi, wants to go to a big market and has refused to work out for anyone but the Knicks and Nets. He also has more bargaining power than Yi, since Gallinari can sign a European contract for more than he would make on a rookie NBA contract whenever he wants. So, since he has stayed in the draft, I think he’s gotten a promise from someone.

7: LA Clippers, Russell Westbrook. When push comes to shove, I think they take the local guy.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. For the same reasons I said in mock 3.0. I don’t think Michael Redd will be traded, and I think they wont want to wait for Eric Gordon.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense.

10: New Jersey, Robin Lopez. It doesn’t make much sense, but it looks like Lopez got a promise from the Nets. He canceled his remaining workouts after visiting Jersey.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. I would simply be shocked if the Pacers pass on the local kid.

12: Sacramento, Darrell Arthur. Much like Lopez at #10, apparently Arthur canceled all of his scheduled workouts after meeting with the Kings. I have no idea why they would want him, though.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. Once again, a pick that makes too much sense to happen.

14: Golden State, Anthony Randolph. He’s 6′11″, 197. Doesn’t that seem like a bit of a problem? Randolph has been compared to Chris Bosh many times, but compared to Bosh’s season at Georgia Tech, Bosh had him by 30 pounds, 0.1 IPM (0.93 vs. 0.84) and 10% from the floor (46% vs. 56%). Bosh was also the same age as Randolph in college. Anthony Randolph is no Chris Bosh.

And my guess for the rest of the first (I’m just ignoring the foreign players):

15: Phoenix, Donte Greene
16: Philadelphia, Marreese Speights
17:Toronto, Kosta Koufos
18: Washington, DeAndre Jordan
19: Cleveland, DJ White
20: Denver, Mario Chalmers
21: New Jersey, Courtney Lee
22: Orlando, Brandon Rush
23: Utah, Roy Hibbert
24: Seattle, JJ Hickson
25: Houston, Kyle Weaver
26: San Antonio, Richard Hendrix (because they are geniuses)
27: New Orleans, Joey Dorsey
28: Memphis, JaVale McGee
29: Detroit, Chris Douglas-Roberts
30: Boston, Jamont Gordon

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

ESPN.com’s Chad Ford is reporting that the Golden State Warriors are trying to get the Bucks to part with Yi Jianlian, and he suggests that a proposed trade might have Brandan Wright and the #14 pick heading to Milwaukee. Apparently, the Warriors made the Jason Richardson-Brandan Wright trade in the first place because they wanted Yi and thought he would still be there at #8.

Note that Ford doesn’t say that is a proposed trade so this is all 1000% speculation, but if G-State was to make an offer, that is pretty much what it would have to be. Technically the Warriors only have five guys under contract right now (not counting Baron Davis who is unlikely to opt out of his contract, and they also hold an option on Andris Biedrins) so Yi-for-Wright is about the only logical trade.

If this trade is offered, from the perspective of wanting a better basketball team in Milwaukee, do I take it? Absolutely yes.

From the perspective of wanting the Bucks to be in Milwaukee a few years from now, do I take it? No way. Not for at least another year.

I’ve pretty much soured on Yi as a player. I’m convinced that he’s at least 24 years old, so he’s not going to get much better. His rebounding ability — while actually better than I feared — doesn’t really scare anyone. He couldn’t guard physical power forwards, leaving that job to Bogut. He couldn’t get his shot off in traffic. He’s got that beautiful jumper, but any defense will let the best shooter in the world take all the 20 footers he wants because he still won’t make more than 45% of them. And forget about Yi eventually becoming a 3-point threat, he shot about 20% from the shorter international 3-point line his last year in China. Also, forget about moving him to small forward — when I think about how players will fare as NBA small forwards I picture them trying to guard LeBron James. Would they just get made to look bad or would they get comically embarrassed? Just think about Yi guarding James for a second.

Meanwhile, Brandan Wright didn’t play very much last season, and as a thin seven-footer with a “toughness” question mark he brings many of the same issues as Yi but without the deadly jumper. However, he posted a better IPM and Defensive IPM than Yi while playing for a team that was fighting for the playoffs all 82 games. Plus there is no doubt about Wright’s age — he’s 21. Wright might be a better player now and is almost certain to be better a few years from now. Not to mention, this draft is pretty deep and having two top-14 picks would be a nice coup.

But then there’s the money question.

After seeing what is going on with the whole Seattle-Oklahoma City debacle, I really worry about the long term viability of the Bucks in Milwaukee. Obviously David Stern doesn’t care about teams moving on their owners’ whim. But instead he looks the other way while the Grizzlies head off to flounder in Memphis, the Bobcats bomb so badly in Charlotte that the owner calls the local newspaper to bitch about local corporations not buying enough boxes, and the Hornets’ move to New Orleans was such a disaster that George Shinn forced the city into a lease that has an attendance-based escape clause two years in. You’d think that since the league hasn’t had a successful move or expansion in a decade Stern would want his teams to stay put, but instead he has been a steady proponent of the Sonics move, despite the fact that it has become crystal clear that the Clay Bennett-faction was negotiating in bad faith (I don’t know if Bennett’s actions make me proud or disgusted to be a CHK shareholder. I guess proud, since I started buying the stock at $3).

In a very insightful post at BlogMaverick, Mark Cuban wrote about why the NFL owners would have opted out of their collective bargaining agreement (he “no longer writes about the business of the NBA” on the blog, but it is easy to see the parallels in his post). His thesis was that the economics of the salary cap — where a huge chunk of revenue comes from the national TV deal, but the big-market teams have an unfair advantage in pursuing local revenue — are squeezing the small market teams to the point where they can no longer compete. Basically, the big market teams can sign lucrative local TV deals, start their own reigonal sports network and — most importantly — finance ridiculous new stadiums. Cuban is talking about the Cowboys’ and Giants/Jets’ new stadium in particular, but it’s pretty clear that the $500 million the Nets have raised for their Brooklyn stadium plays a part in his thinking too.

What happens is that the salary cap keeps going up because these big market teams can expand their local revenues so much that they significantly raise the leagues’ average revenues without the small market teams actually seeing any of that gain. Then the salary cap goes up, and since the cap is supposedly in place to make the small-market teams competetive, they are forced to keep spending up to the cap despite the fact that their costs are going up faster than their revenues. If they didn’t fill their cap then the fans and media would call the owners cheap and attendance would drop.

It all means that eventually the salary cap grows to the point that the small-market teams cannot realistically pay their salaries without running a deficit. Which means there can only be two types of small-market owners — those like Herb Kohl (who have seen their initial investment in the team grow so much that they don’t mind running an annual deficit) and those like Clay Bennett (who know darn well they are going to lose money, but want to own a team simply so they can say they brought professional sports to their backyard).

The problem, as I see it, is that no matter how hard Herb Kohl looks, he might not be able to find another buyer who isn’t like Clay Bennett. And David Stern — who was just recently putting Milwaukee on notice that we had better pony up for a new stadium within five years, or else — has made it clear that he is fine with that.

Which gets us back to the idea of trading Yi. Basically, as the league is currently structured, in order for Kohl to be able to retire and sell the team without all of us sweating them moving they will have to make more money. It will be much easier if this team has positive cash flows. It will be infinitely easier if the brand name Milwaukee Bucks has some international cachet.

I don’t have any insight into the teams’ finances, but I can’t imagine they are making money. I have very good seats at the BC and I don’t pay anywhere close to face value — it would cost me over three times what I pay to get the same seats at the United Center. I have Brewers tickets too, and let me tell you — dealing with the Bucks and Brewers’ reps is like night and day. The Bucks ticket office will bend over backwards to help you out, while the Brewers guys will kind of shrug their shoulders and tell you whether or not what you want to do works for them. It really seems like the Bucks need my money much more than the Brewers do.

Just doing the math, it doesn’t add up. The Bucks make around $30 mil/year from the national media deal. They drew about 600,000 fans last season, and if their profit is $30/ticket, then that is an additional $19 million. That covers their two major sources of revenue, but they paid $62 million in salaries last season. According to Herb Kohl’s personal financial statements, the Bucks’ gross revenue was $79.5 mil. Is that enough to get into the black for the season? Maybe, but it’s close. These numbers don’t take into account any expenses, and that is after Yi arrived this season.

Maybe they could make money — but only because of Yi. Kohl has said that they have taken operating losses in the past few years, and no matter what there is no way the Bucks made more than a couple of million last season.

The Chinese-language advertising makes a difference. Over time, selling a million officially-licensed Bucks jerseys in China might bring back $10 million in royalties (of course, they won’t get paid for probably fifty million unlicensed ones). At the very least, Yi’s effect on the bottom line helps close the revenue gap that simply must exist for the Bucks. The team has to milk that for all it is worth, and if it means passing on a decent prospect and a mid draft pick, that’s fine. John Hammond has to be creative to fix this team, and if keeping Yi is part of the package, then so be it. Just find another way.

But there is one caveat about this — the Chinese aren’t stupid. If Yi doesn’t turn into a good player soon then any interest in him is going to disappear as quickly as it started. His fans don’t want to cheer for him simply because he is in the NBA — they want to cheer for him because he is good. If Yi doesn’t pan out in the next year or two — and maybe even simply if he looks lousy at the Olympics this summer — then his fans are going to be gone, on to the next big-time prospect. There’s always going to be someone else to root for.

Hideki Matsui may still have 50 Japanese journalists following him everywhere he goes, but don’t forget that Kaz Matsui came to New York with almost the same amount of hype. And once Kaz didn’t become a star, he was forgotten.

So my guess is that the whole “Yi as a marketing tool” thing has one more year left unless he really busts out this season. I want to keep him around until the money well runs dry.

The Bucks need him too much to trade him now. As Bucks fans, we need him here for the financial health of the franchise. Hopefully he can hold up his end of the bargain on the court.

I am pleased to announce that I have made an upgrade to my IPM rankings — thanks to the geniuses at www.82games.com, they kept track of charges this season and so I was able to add them into the ranking. I’ve been waiting for this. The rankings don’t change much (Andrew Bogut gets a little boost), but I still feel it helps with accuracy a bit. The rankings are available here.

But the real improvement is that I have added a defensive component to IPM, making this ranking truly unique — not only does it include charges, but also defense. I’m mighty proud of it.

The idea for a defensive ranking came from this article by Jon Nichols at 82games.com. His method — called Defensive Composite Score — ranked players by three categories, summed the rankings, and then ranked them by percentage to come up with a 0-100 ranking. His categories were athleticism ratio (if you are familiar with my draft preview, I also used it there. It is blocks+steals/fouls), Dean Oliver’s Defensive Rating (a single number developed and described in the book Basketball on Paper) and on court/off court differential.

I took Nichols’ DCS, tweaked it and took it a step further. First, I added charges to the athleticism ratio (blocks+steals+offensive fouls drawn/fouls committed). After getting the individual ratings, I took my team defensive IPM score in order to add a “team adjustment” to each individual. Then I adjusted for how much each player was responsible for their teams’ defensive IPM, by backing out each player to determine how much better or worse each team would be had he not been on the team. Finally (and I wish I didn’t have to do this, but the data demanded it) I inputted a position adjustment to reflect the fact that big men have much more difficult demands on their defense.

I absolutely hate position adjustments, and feel that if you have to use them then there is a flaw in your methodology because you can then just change a players’ ranking by changing their position — even though they don’t always play the same position. It’s a major flaw that also crops up in the “Wages of Wins” school of thought, but that’s a whole other story.

Anyway, I then had an adjusted score that I could convert to IPM, and by combining IPM with the Defensive IPM I obtained a final, all-around ranking. Because the rules of basketball are slanted toward offense I weighted the combined rankings as 75% IPM and 25% defensive IPM. Basically, I figured that since a 25 ppg scorer would likely score 35 points against the worst defender but about 20 against the best defender, you can’t truly assume the two systems are equal. A great defensive player will still allow enough scoring that he has to at least be able to pick up a little slack at the offensive end.

The ranking are available here.

What does the defensive ranking component tell us?

The most interesting thing is that it says that in the case of top players, they usually bring the goods at both ends of the floor. It makes some sense — logically great players like LeBron, KG and Kobe are so superior athletically that they can dominate at both ends. So the players who don’t have their overall rankings changed very much when defensive IPM is included tend to be the best players (or, like Matt Carroll, they just suck at both offense and defense).

What was also interesting was looking at the players who had their rankings changed the most by adding defensive IPM. It clearly shows that there are some “winning”, “intangible” skills that some players bring and that some lack.

It doesn’t come as much surprise that the players who had their rankings improved the most were the known offensively-challenged defensive specialists: Shane Battier, Ben Wallace, and Anderson Varejao types. But what was interesting was that of the 40 players who had their rankings improved by the most (among those who averaged 20 mpg), 30 of them made the playoffs this season. At the other end of the spectrum, among the 40 20mpg+ offensive specialists who were hurt the most by incorporating defensive rankings (Eddy Curry, Ben Gordon, Hakim Warrick …. Charlie Villanueva) 30 of them missed the playoffs. Coincidence? I think not.

What does this ranking system tell us about some of the Bucks?

Charlie Villanueva must go. While Charlie V’s offensive IPM was decent (0.7756, #116 overall) his team-worst 0.508 defensive IPM dropped his overall ranking 58 spots to #176. Quite simply, Villanueva is a pretty average offensive player who doesn’t defend well enough to make him a net-positive player.

Michael Redd should stay. Redd suffered through an awful offensive season by his standards and had a pretty lousy defensive IPM to boot, but when it was all said and done his overall ranking dropped by 19 spots. However, Redd is good enough offensively to score 25 a night and get to the line 10 times, while attempting to replace him would likely lead to a replacement who is moderately better defensively but much, much worse offensively. And Redd is likely to be better on offense next season.

Mo Williams should go. Mo’s 0.625 defensive IPM lowered his overall ranking by 25 spots, which pretty much negates all of the strides his offensive game has made. Added to that is the way Mo’s decision making seems to make the game harder on his teammates, and he winds up looking like a real drag on the team.

Andrew Bogut should sign that extension. When charges were added, Bogut’s IPM rose to 0.910, which is borderline-all-star level. At his age, there is still plenty of time for Bogut to mature into a solid contributor for a good team. Bogut’s defense was also the best on the team, which suggests that once Scott Skiles beats some defensive responsibility into his teammates, he should be able to become the centerpiece of a pretty good defense.

Yi was … good defensively? I don’t know about this one. Yi’s defensive IPM was pretty good, but I think that Yi gets a big assist from Bogut here. Bogut would always guard the oppositions’ best big, and Yi’s on/off court differential looks a little better than it is because he got hurt a little before the team really cratered. Yi has a lot of work to do next year — and he owes it to Bogut for making his numbers look good this season.

Thank God Royal Ivey is gone. Having a defensive specialist can be a good strategy. However, Ivey was so bad offensively that even great defense couldn’t make him a net-positive player. But Ivey, despite maybe looking good here and there, was lousy defensively as well — his 0.523 DefIPM was the second worst on the team. Charlie Bell’s DefIPM was awful as well, but he gets a pass because he was thrown to the wolves at small forward way too often. How can a 6′3″ player be expected to guard LeBron James straight up?

Ramon Sessions isn’t as good as the numbers say. While Sessions had the best offensive and defensive IPM on the team, don’t forget that his 17 games played amounted to 450 minutes of extended garbage time. Nobody was very serious about guarding him and there wasn’t much incentive for him to play much defense beyond gambling for steals. He’ll be a good backup, but he’s not nearly as good as the numbers think.

And there’s my two cents for John Hammond.

Now that the Orlando predraft camp has concluded, Draftexpress.com has printed a list of the measurements of all the top prospects.

A word about Draft Express — it is a great source of info about all things hoops, and if you donate to them then you can log in and view the site without any pop-up ads. It’s highly worthwhile. Not only is the site well worth paying a little bit for, but the pop-ups make it almost impossible to navigate.

The measurements proved one thing — whenever you see a player’s listed height, assume that it is with shoes on and rounded up. But that’s fine — since every player is listed that way then their measurements are actually pretty accurate. Wrong, but wrong by the same amount.

Anyway, here are some highlights:

The rumors were true about Michael Beasley — he’s 6′7″ without shoes. Word also has it that Miami was put off by Beasley’s casual attitude at the camp, and they may be trying to trade down for a crack at OJ Mayo. Since Beasley is now only 6′8.25″ with shoes, that may make them even more interested in trading down. That would be a mistake, though.

Derrick Rose came in at 6′1.5″, which makes him 6′2.75″ in shoes, which converts to 6′3″ in basketball math. Other point guards (without shoes) included Russell Westbrook (6′2.25″), Ty Lawson (5′10.75″) and DJ Augustin (5′10″!)

OJ Mayo: 6′3.25″ without shoes.

Eric Gordon: 6′2″ without shoes, which is kind of funny because I remember Gordon being listed at 6′5″ when he committed to Illinois as a high school junior. Interestingly enough, Gordon has a 6′9″ wingspan, compared to 6′6″ for Mayo. Gordon’s 40-inch vertical leap was one of the best in camp, tied with Derrick Rose and one inch behind Mayo’s camp-best 41.

Kevin Love checked in at 6′7.75″ without shoes, 6′9.25″ with shoes. He weighed 255, down 15 pounds from his college playing weight. He also registered 12.5% body fat, indicating that he could still lose more. His height may hurt him a bit, as it seems that he will be too short to play much center. It’s pretty obvious Love has been working hard to get into “workout” shape — his 35 inch vertical leap was one of the best measured among big men and his time in the 3/4 court sprint was surprisingly good.

And I’d be remiss to not touch up on my sleeper Richard Hendrix:

Hendrix measured (unsurprisingly) at 6′6.75″ without shoes and 6′7.75″ with. I think that’s what most people expected as I read in several places that there was no way he was 6′9″. However, despite being one of the shorter big men in camp he has exceptionally long arms as his 9′0″ vertical reach was better than most non-centers. Also, while his bench press and 3/4 court sprint time were not that great, his time in the lane agility drill (a sort of shuttle run around the key, meant to measure footwork and lateral movement) was exceptional. He ran the 3rd best drill at the camp, behind two guards, and his time of 10.62 seconds was nearly 1/2 second faster than the second best big man, Beasley. Nothing there to suggest he’s not going to be the steal of the draft.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6′7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6′11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.