There’s something you don’t see every day — a hall-of-famer traded with almost no notice. In case you haven’t noticed, Shaquille O’Neal was traded to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
You’ve got to think this deal is a major coup for Miami and a major blunder for Phoenix.
The Heat save money by shedding the last two years of Shaq’s contract (Marion can opt-out this season) and even if Marion does, they will have the inside track on locking up a far-better player than will hit free agency any time soon. By IPM they trade the 50th best player in the league for the 33rd best – but I have always felt that IPM severely underrates Marion. His numbers are impacted negatively by Phoenix’s furious pace, and IPM can’t account for his defensive prowess or the fact that he is a 40 mpg ironman (as opposed to Shaq, who has been limited to 32 games and 28.5 mpg).
So Phoenix trades a great player who is in his prime for an aging center who does not fit their system. Why?
I can only come up with two reasons — both of them shortsighted panic moves. The Suns’ chemistry has been an issue all season, and apparently it centers around friction between Marion and Amare Stoudemire. Marion is a notoriously hard guy to please (he only has a max contract, plays the most minutes on the team, has been the leading scorer, and is a four-time all-star. And he still feels “disrespected”?) so it was probably the easy decision to ship him out over Stoudemire. But the problems haven’t affected them on the court — they are the third best team in the league, and are actually defending this season!
GM Steve Kerr is under a lot of pressure to win now, since the window is closing on Steve Nash and the Suns have shortsightedly sold most of their draft picks recently in an effort to save money. Now, seeing that his team is 5-9 against Western Conference teams that are over .500, he assumes that they aren’t big enough to stick with the big boys in the West. However, there are two problems with that logic — while the Suns’ style might have had trouble in scattered games here and there against the Spurs, Lakers and Mavs that doesn’t necessarily mean that those teams can keep up with them in a seven game series. So Kerr decides to make a move for more defense and rebounding, and trades his best defender and second best rebounder for a slow, injury prone center who can’t defend or rebound any more. According to Johnny Ludden of Yahoo, via ESPN’s TrueHoop, Shaq just might be far less of a player than people realize — in fact, he might barely be able to dunk.
Meanwhile, Miami instantly becomes a creditable team. With two superstars who are 40 mpg machines when healthy, the spare parts of Udonis Haslem, Ricky Davis and Mark Blount is enough to give this team a chance to win almost any night. They won’t be a great team, and they are too far back to make the playoffs, but they can give any team they run into problems.
Which brings me to how that affects the Bucks: In my treatise about how the Bucks can make the playoffs, I had counted both remaining Miami games as wins. That’s not a sure thing any more. In fact, I can’t really see the Bucks beating a full-strength Miami team in Miami. Also, the Heat don’t play New Jersey any more times this season
Now the Bucks are going to have to steal a couple more games than I thought. Before the trade I could see Milwaukee squeaking into the playoffs with 35 wins. But if those two Miami wins become losses? No way 33 wins is enough.
3 responses so far ↓
1 foolonthehill // Feb 7, 2008 at 5:11 pm
I agree with almost everything you said here. I am not a big Shaq fan by no means but I think that the Suns might have made a good move here. As you said, Nash ain’t getting any younger and they’ve sold their future so they need a championship now.
They’ll be able to have Diaw, Stoudamire, Nash, Bell, Barbosa, Hill(if he isn’t injured) or Skinner (Skinner can move a bit) when they want to run and gun and then when they move to a half court or have to defend Yao or Bynham then they bring Shaq in. Heck, half the time teams run, any team, the centers are plodding behind anyway. That will be no different here cept’ that Shaq won’t even run.
I also believe that Shaquille has quit on the Heat.
I think he might find it cool and interesting to win championships with 3 different teams and I don’t think he’s as washed up as he would have us believe. He’s one of those vet players who bring it when they have to and can be lame and suck or feign injury when you’re playing the Knicks or the Grizzlies.
The real question is for Bucks fans: who are we going to trade to get a real small forward so we can contend? They’ve looked pretty good the past two games. I like Charlie V. starting with Yi coming off the bench. Gadzuric got some clock and looked good. So we trade Redd, have Charlie run the point put Mo at the two and Gerald Wallace as our small forward? haha. later.
2 swilldog // Feb 8, 2008 at 10:28 am
As has been said here and by many others, the Bucks need to seriously try Charlie V at the small forward spot and Yi at power forward. Those two on the floor with Bogut… our front court would pwn the East.
And while definitely not a long term solution, Simmons is an adequate small forward off the bench, as is Mason. If either is healthy, that is.
The back court though… ugh. Mo is only good at shooting guard. Sessions has promise as a future point. Bell is an adequate off-the-bencher at either slot. Not much after that for long term, assuming Redd can be moved to bring in some fresh blood.
What are the odds of finding a taker for Redd and Gadz? I’d like to think pretty good. But have the blockbuster trades that have gone on so far screwed up the market so much that swinging an advantageous deal is no longer likely? Or will it drive other contenders to desperation enough to green light a deal that finally gets the Bucks the pieces they need? And will team management have the guts to pull the trigger?
And really, why have the current roster at all if they’re going to continue to misuse them under the current coaching philosophy?
3 David // Feb 10, 2008 at 1:51 pm
You said the HEAT are too far out to make the playoffs… while it’s a long shot but the East is so bad this year that they are only 11 game out of the playoffs. Golden State was out even more, made a trade, and look where they got. I say the HEAT catch New Jersey, and on the last day of the season make the playoffs, with oh, a 34-48 record.
Then they get swept by Boston!
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