The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Enough about the Bucks. Time to look at what’s going on among the good teams, and preview the first round of the playoffs.

Instead of thinking about how teams have played throughout the whole season, I’m a little more interested in how they are playing now. So I calculated IPM power rankings for the last six weeks of the season, which gives a good picture of which series’ might be the most competetive, and where potential upsets may lie.

If you are not familiar with IPM (as I recently learned that my friend Mike Headd is not, despite his having read the blog for nearly a year), it is my proprietary player ranking calculation. IPM stands for Impacts Per Minute, and more about the methodology is available here. I update IPM rankings for all players weekly (here) as well as team power rankings (here). All of this information is also avaliable through the links on the right side of the page.

I’m writing the preview under the assumption that the playoff matchups will not change in the next couple of days. If they do then I will update them accordingly.

Listed next to the team names are each team’s power rank for their offense, defense and overall for the last six weeks. The information is also given here.

On to the preview:

Eastern Conference

1 vs 8. Boston (#4 Offense, #1 Defense, #2 Overall) vs. Atlanta (#9 Offense, #18 Defense, #16 Overall): Welcome back to the big time, Hawks. Blink and you will miss it. Obviously the Celtics completely outclass Atlanta in this series, and it looks to be a 4-0 sweep.

4 vs 5. Cleveland (#13 Offense, #9 Defense, #10 Overall) vs. Washington (#12 Offense, #15 Defense, #14 Overall): The Cavs haven’t really jelled as much as I thought they would since their deadline trades, only going 13-12. They have, however, played a little better than their record, as my numbers say they have underachieved by two games. Washington is struggling to reintegrate Gilbert Arenas into their rotation, and the combination of home court advantage and LeBron James should make this series a pretty easy Cleveland win. I say the Cavs in 5.

3 vs. 6. Orlando (#20 Offense, #6 Defense, #13 Overall) vs. Toronto (#10 Offense, #13 Defense, #12 Overall): This is an interesting matchup — I feel that Orlando has overachieved all season and Toronto has underachieved. They come into this series as an even matchup, but I feel that the point guards will decide this series — and I think that Toronto has a huge advantage there. I’m calling the upset here — Raptors in six.

2 vs. 7. Detroit (#8 Offense, #3 Defense, #3 Overall) vs. Philadelphia (#11 Offense, #11 Defense, #9 Overall): The only Eastern Conference matchup that features two top ten teams over the last six weeks, the Sixers could make some noise against Detroit. However, I think that the Pistons’ veteran savvy will carry this one pretty easily. Pistons in 5.

Western Conference

1 vs 8. LA Lakers (#2 Offense, #12 Defense, #4 Overall) vs. Denver (#3 Offense, #29 Defense, #19 Overall): Despite getting the edge over Golden State by beating them this week, the Nuggets are staggering to the finish line. Recent losses to Seattle and Sacramento highlight the absolute defensive collapse that they are suffering as they abandon that end of the floor to concentrate on scoring. Their home court advantage will win them a game or two, but they cannot seriously challenge Kobe and the Lakers. Lakers in six.

4 vs 5. Utah (#1 Offense, #4 Defense, #1 Overall) vs. Houston (#15 Offense, #5 Defense, #7 Overall): Utah has been the best team in the league for several months, but it hasn’t been borne out in their record, as they have underachieved by 5 games in the last six weeks. The problem is that they are simply dominant at home (36-4) but subpar on the road (17-23). That makes home court advantage the deciding factor in this series, which will be up in the air until the final day. Houston has one more game left than Utah, giving them an edge on getting home court. Even without Yao, the Rockets have been one of the best teams of the second half this season, and maybe this finally is the year that T-Mac finally gets out of the first round. My prediction? Lets see who gets home court advantage. Either way this will be the best first round series (which is saying somethng) and whoever is at home for game seven will prevail.

3 vs. 6. San Antonio (#23 Offense, #2 Defense, #6 Overall) vs. Phoenix (#7 Offense, #14 Defense, #11 Overall): Now the playoffs begin and the Spurs turn it on. One reason their numbers look so bad is that they limit Manu Ginobli’s minutes so much in the regular season. Once he starts playing a little more, look for them to get that much better. Meanwhile, I think that the Suns’ acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal will be exposed as a mistake in the playoffs — in the last six weeks their offensive and defensive rankings have all declined from their full season rankings. Spurs in seven.

2 vs. 7. New Orleans (#5 Offense, #7 Defense, #5 Overall) vs. Dallas (#6 Offense, #10 Defense, #8 Overall): After the acquisition of Jason Kidd, this is the worst possible matchup for Dallas. Kidd couldn’t stay in front of Tony Parker in the finals six years ago, what makes Dallas think he can check Chris Paul now? Meanwhile, the Mavs traded away their best matchup against Paul, Devin Harris, and in the process fell from the #3 seed to the #7. This is actually a pretty close matchup with two top-ten teams, but the Hornets are simply a little better at both ends of the court. Hornets in seven.

I’n not going to call the second round, but I guess I should give my finals prediction: Boston over San Antonio.

It’s funny how in all the major sports the balance of power has shifted so dramatically away from the conferences and leagues that the teams we root for in Wisconsin. The American League makes the National League look like AAA. The AFC thoroughly dominates the NFC (well, until it really matters). And the Eastern Conference is so ridiculously bad compared to the Western Conference that a 35 win team will make the playoffs this season.

And that team will be the Milwaukee Bucks.

Laugh if you must. Say “homer!� if you will. But it’s highly likely. Of the seven teams scrambling for the final two playoff spots in the East, the Bucks have three advantages. They have the most favorable schedule. They have the most home games. And they have the best home-court record.

The Bucks have 20 home games remaining and 14 road games. To this point in the season they have won 62% of their home games and 18% of their road games, so that projects to 33 wins for the season. If every other team’s home/road percentages remain constant then the Bucks would tie with Indiana for the ninth spot, missing out on the playoffs by two games.
How can the Bucks get from 18 to 35 wins in the season’s final 34 games?

I looked at the remaining schedule and divided each game into four categories: games the Bucks will definitely get blown out in, the games they should lose, the “winnable� games, games they absolutely should win, and games I can’t figure out.

Blowout losses: at Dallas, Detroit, at Detroit, San Antonio, Utah, Boston (2), at Boston, at Toronto

Should lose: New Orleans, Denver, at New Jersey, at Washington (2), Orlando, at Chicago

Winnable: at Indiana (2), at Atlanta, New York (2), Indiana, Chicago

Should Win: at Memphis, LA Clippers, Seattle, at Miami, Miami, at Minnesota

I’m not sure: Cleveland (2), Portland, Philadelphia, New Jersey

So if the Bucks win the games they should win and lose the games they should lose that puts them at 31 wins with 5 “not sure� games. So figure they lose two of the games they should win, steal two games they should lose and go 3-2 in the five toss-up games. That’s 34 wins.

Now, will that be enough?

One thing the Bucks have going for them is that they are done with their West coast trips. They only have two games remaining West of the Mississippi (at Dallas and at Minnesota) so they don’t have much travel remaining. How do the other challengers for the last spots stack up?

Atlanta: Currently holding the #8 spot, they have the inside track at finishing at #7. They have one more road game than home remaining, and have a road trip coming up next week that sees them with six west coast games (and a home game sprinkled in there). This team actually seems to be maturing into something halfway decent, and they should hold on to a playoff spot – as long as they can muster up the six road wins they need.

New Jersey: A recent nine game losing streak has this team is circling the drain. It now appears that Jason Kidd won’t get traded (as Dallas has backed out of the bidding) and that Vince Carter has already decided that with a new contract it isn’t worth it to him to try very hard. They also have a five game west coast trip coming up in March. While I could see this team collapsing, they have always given the Bucks fits – and the April 12 Bucks-Nets game could be the final determinant of which of these teams gets the 8 seed.

Indiana: The Pacers have a favorable schedule – 20 home games to 15 road games, and their only west coast run is a quick jaunt to lose at Houston and San Antonio. But the difference between them and the Bucks is that the Pacers have been lousy at home this season (43%). They have been playing at the second highest pace in the league all season but use a short bench (only six players average 20+ minutes, but does Kareem Rush really count as a player?). A late season fade would not be a surprise as exhaustion catches up to Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley and injury fells Jermaine O’Neal. The Pacers are currently on a 1-8 streak in games without O’Neal.

Chicago: The one team of the bunch that I’d worry about being able to “turn it on� and get hot, but they haven’t shown any sort of ability to do that thus far. They have a balanced home/away schedule the rest of the year, but have been poor both at home and on the road all season (43%/35%). I thought this team was a title contender, so obviously I am the last person to pass judgment on their prospects, but I feel that if any team out of this group might be able to get hot and make a run, this is it.

Philadelphia: How is it possible to win 39% of your home games? Despite the fact the Bucks have made them look like world-beaters twice, this Sixers team is awful.

Charlotte: They have an absolutely brutal schedule. 8 more road games than home, and they essentially spend all of March on an extended west coast trip that has a couple of random day trips back East for home games sprinkled in. The Bobcats have no chance with their schedule.

Doesn’t it make sense that the Bucks can catch either Atlanta or New Jersey and hold off the rest of the East? The Bucks might not be the best team, but they have a very realistic shot against the other contenders. For all the complaining about the Bucks roster, most of these other teams have it much worse.

Of course the only problem is that should the Bucks get the 8 seed, they will be the answer of a trivia question for a long time: “Who was the worst team (by record) to ever get a playoff spot in the NBA?�

As far as I’m concerned, I hope the Bucks get the 8 seed instead of the 7. I’d rather see them get blown out by Boston twice than by Detroit.

So that’s it – I’m a believer. I have one more flare of optimism left in me. Barring a run of injuries, this team will be in the playoffs come April. That makes Tuesday night’s game against Memphis extremely important. Blow it against the Grizzlies and all bets are off.

Several years ago, I was on a co-ed rec league flag football team. As many of you have probably experienced, most good football players wont play in a co-ed league, so the key to a good team is (1) organization and (2) having at least one really good female player, since typically the rules state that a girl has to touch the ball once every four downs. Our team was pretty much lacking in female talent (except for one who was deceptively quick but had awful hands. She was a great edge rusher. Sort of a female Lawrence Taylor without the coke habit), but we were really well organized.

So after getting smoked in the first two games we came out in a zone. It worked great for the entire regular season, as no other team seemed to know what hit them. Next thing you know we were picking off passes left and right, winning games we had no business winning, and even won one game on forefit when the opposing QB — frustrated because we were in the process of returning his fifth interception for our third defensive touchdown — tackled the returner, touching off a brawl.

It worked great until the second round of the playoffs, when we ran into a team with a good quarterback.

It took him two posessions to figure us out. Because we had to use guys at the safety positions and middle linebacker, at least one of our edge players had to be female (and there was usually a second gap, because LT pretty much did nothing but count to five and rush the QB). Soon enough they were running quick outs one after another, flooding whichever zone a weaker girl was covering. We couldn’t cover the holes fast enough. 30-0, season over.

And that, dear reader, is why the Bucks should never, ever play zone.

I remember years ago, when zones weren’t allowed in the NBA, commentators saying that nobody would ever use them because NBA players shoot too well and would just bomb away over them. Well, the Bucks have certainly been proving that one true over the last couple of games.

It’s one thing if you have Kevin Garnett covering the baseline. It’s another if you have big, physical perimeter defenders who can sag inside to cover their zones and then close out fast enough to reach the shooters and contest outside shots. But the Bucks don’t have anybody like that. Bogut may have blocked some shots recently but he’s not an eraser or even exceptionally quick. Redd has spent seven years proving that he’s not much of a defender — he doesn’t have enough lift to deny an open shooter in a zone. What is Mo or Bell going to do in that situation? How are they going to close out on guys who are consistently 4-6 inches taller than them?

But despite having completely the wrong personnel for a zone that hasn’t stopped Krystkowiak from whipping it out over the last two games. And, what do you know, the Bucks zone defense has gotten shredded by the likes of Joe Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Kyle Korver and even Andre Iguodala.

It’s one thing to look at the box scores and say, “well, they just had a hot shooting night.” It’s another to watch open shot after open shot after open shot. If you never contest a shot then any NBA players’ shooting percentage is going to go up by 20%. And when the Bucks play zone, the opponents should always be able to get an uncontested shot. And that will turn plenty of 6 point deficits into 15 in a hurry, just like it has the last two nights.

That sure was a strange drubbing the Bucks took at the hands of the Sixers last night, and it makes one wonder how the team will respond tonight in Atlanta.

It seemed like the Bucks defense just fell apart against Philly, with slow rotations allowing open shot after open shot. That’s going to happen some nights since Redd and Williams are going to have horrible defensive nights, but it really highlights the big problem with this Bucks team:

They can’t blow anybody out unless they have a ridiculously good night shooting the ball, but if their perimeter defense slacks off a little then they can get blown out at any time.

That’s a real problem because blowout victories are what separates good teams from bad in all sports. People love to say that the good teams win the close ones, but that’s not true — over time, close wins and losses even themselves out because when a win or loss is determined by a couple of bounces of the ball then luck plays a huge factor. But the best teams get dominant wins with regularity. For the Bucks, however, that isn’t the case.

They now have one blowout win (Toronto) against four 15+ point losses. In the 5 game win streak, the victory margins were 9 (Atlanta), 7 (Lakers), 4 (Cleveland), 3 (Memphis) and 2 (Dallas). Most disconcerting is the Memphis win — you really should hammer a team like that at home. These margins of victory underscore the truth about this Bucks team: they are pretty good, but since you can’t count on winning 5-point games with regularity, until they start winning blowouts then they aren’t much more than a .500 team at best.

Which brings us to tonights Atlanta game. One would think that this will be a run-and-gun affair, with the Bucks all offense/no defense reputation and all of the high-flying athletes the Hawks have collected. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Atlanta is actually playing at the slowest pace in the league this year and the Bucks are the 8th slowest paced team. As bad a game as the Bucks played last night, the Hawks are actually coming off of an even more pathetic effort, a 90-78 loss at Chicago in which they were outrebounded by 23 and only managed 30 points in the first half.

But the funny thing is that the teams that play at slow paces are usually the good defensive teams. Neither of these teams defend well, with the Bucks ranking #21 and the Hawks #27 by IPM.

So it appears that the victor tonight will be the one that can push the pace a little and overwhelm the opposition’s defensive weaknesses. Here is where the Bucks need a big rebounding game from Andrew Bogut. Control the boards against the Hawks and Atlanta has problems.

Tonight is a big game for the Bucks to see how they handle the disapointment of the Sixers loss. Hopefully one bad loss doesn’t snowball into a bad slide.

After 2 years of questions such as, “if you win a division at under .500, are you still eligible for the lottery?”, the Atlantic got all shook up the day that KG arrived. It went from a division most notable for what a colossal screwup most of the teams were to the home of the most interesting story in the Eastern Conference: What will happen in Boston?

1: Boston: What can I really say about the Celtics that hasn’t been written already? They made the biggest, most visible moves in the offseason, transforming themselves into a powerhouse with a 3-4 year window to gun for a title. But the trade came at a cost – the team has almost no bench whatsoever and should injuries short-circuit them then all they will have to show for it will be no draft pick and a $76 million payroll.

Most of the “What if one of the big 3 gets hurt� questions center around Ray Allen, as he is the oldest member of the Garnett/Pierce/Alen triumvirate, and has already had injury problems (including offseason surgery on both of his ankles). Allen is also at an age where most big shooting guards just mystifyingly “lose it� (remember when Mitch Richmond went to Washington?), but he has always depended less on his athleticism and more on his sweet jumper, which won’t desert him. Obviously, if Garnett gets hurt then this team is sunk, but the same can be said for most title contenders about their best player.

After putting together the Big 3, Boston had solid pieces left to fill out their starting 5 (serviceable Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, a first round revelation who provides excellent defense). However, the rest of their roster is a mess – partially because they didn’t have any money to spend to make it better, but part because they made some big mistakes. First of all, they used the midlevel exception on James Posey and Eddie House. House is a decent, if one-dimensional, player who has one of the highest shots-per-minute rates in NBA history. But why not go after Charlie Bell, instead? I know the Bucks would probably have matched an offer to Bell, but his ability to score would make him a perfect counterpart at point guard to Rondo, and his defense would fill in well behind Allen. Posey is terrible – he has gotten worse and worse in the last couple of years, and was even suspended by the Heat last year for not being in shape. So why not sign Ruben Patterson instead? Nobody wanted Patterson, and he wound up signing with the Clippers. Their other signings, Dahntay Jones and Scot Pollard were pretty awful as well, but the C’s only had the minimum available to get them.

I’m going to assume that the Big 3 stays relatively healthy, and that should propel this team pretty deep into the playoffs. They do have the schedule advantage of being in a weak division, so have a good shot at the #1 seed. I think that in the end the Bulls’ youth and depth will overwhelm the Boston star power, but it should be a very exciting fight. The Celtics win 57 and cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals.

2: Toronto: Funny roster. Besides Chris Bosh, the Raptors don’t have a single player who makes you say; “Oh yeah, he’s good.� But they have about 10 guys who make you say, “You know, he’s not bad.� While they won an extremely weak division last year, this team is good enough that it wasn’t a fluke.

Bryan Coangelo has completely remade the roster in the past season, and was most lauded for his acquisition of TJ Ford as the key to the Raptors’ rise. I’m not so sure that was truly his best move, though – as I wrote in this post, Ford wasn’t so much better last season as he had been with the Bucks except that his assist rate went way up – remarkably coinciding with him playing with better finishers than the Bucks had. No, it was the same TJ, just in a much better offensive system for his game.

The real genius of Coangelo is what he did with the roster beyond Bosh and Ford – every single player is a pretty nice pickup (except for Kris Humphries). Anthony Parker and Jorge Garbajosa were terrific European imports, and Jose Calderon has Toronto fans calling for TJ to be benched. I really liked the acquisitions of Juan Dixon and especially Carlos Delfino, and Radoslav Nesterovic even chipped in with a solid year. Jason Kapono got a ridiculous contract that they will regret in 4 years, but he should be pretty valuable next season.

One difficulty for this team will be trying to figure out what to do with Andrea Bargnani. While his sweet shot needs to be on the floor, trying to figure out where is a problem – it’s kind of like the same issue they had with Charlie Villanueva. Obviously he can’t play power forward with Bosh cemented there. His shooting is plenty good to play the 3, but his size/speed combination leads to a lot of defensive problems there. He is big enough to play center, and would create offensive mismatches there, but he cannot rebound at all. Seriously – he only got 6.3 rebounds per 40 minutes last season. I always complain about the Bucks’ lack of rebounding, but their entire frontcourt – Bogut, Villanueva, Gadzuric, and Voskhul – all averaged between 9.5 and 11 rebounds per 40 last year. Bargnani at center will make the coaching job much more difficult. One interesting thing to look at is Bargnani’s 82games.com page – when he played power forward his PER was equal to that of his counterpart but when he moved to small forward or center, this opponent went to town on him. This all probably means more minutes in the middle for Bosh than the team would really prefer.

But the Bargnani question is a minor one, and the Raptors will be just fine this season. They should be back in the playoffs, with a minor improvement on last years’ record. I’m looking for 47 wins.

3: New Jersey: When you have a hall-of-fame point guard, your team can only get so bad. Last season they suffered through the loss of Nenad Kristic, and survived using a patchwork frontcourt featuring guys like the immortal (sarcasm) Mikki Moore and the immortal (not sarcasm) Cliff Robinson. Richard Jefferson had an injury plagued year, and was awful when he wasn’t hurt. Lawrence Frank wouldn’t let things get too bad, though, and Vince Carter and Jason Kidd carried the load. Eventually this roster isn’t going to be able to get it done any more, and I think that decline starts now.

The aging of the roster can be seen in the decline of the team’s defense. People seem to think that with Kidd-Carter-Jefferson that the Nets are a run-and-gun bunch, but they actually have been one of the slowest paced, defensive-oriented teams around. That started to change last year as they were pretty much average in both offense and defense (I had them as the #14 offense and #18 defense). No doubt part of this was because of the frontcourt injuries, but some of it may be due to a general slowing down of the rest of the team’s talent base.
The Nets get Kristic back, which will help them on both ends of the floor, but nevertheless they spent the offseason trying to upgrade their big men. Futilely, I might add. After years of using no-offense, tough defense Jason Collins in the middle they decided to back him up with Jamaal Magloire, who is an upgrade in no way except rebounding. Then they drafted Boston College center Sean Williams, already a well-known head case who finished his college career by getting kicked off the team. Why take a risk on a guy like that?

The Nets find themselves at a kind of lousy crossroads. Not good enough to make much noise in the postseason, too much talent to get bad enough to go young and play for the draft. I think they slump to 38 wins and fall out of the playoffs, which would probably unfairly cost Lawrence Frank his job.

4: New York: I just love this team.

Once again, the highest payroll in the NBA couldn’t result in any more than another lottery pick for the Bulls. Isiah Thomas’ plan for rebuilding the Knicks with expensive superstars has only resulted in a roster filled with expensive players. He even wussed out on his theory about accumulating expiring contracts as trade bait, waiting until Jalen Rose and Anfernee Hardaway were in the final seasons of their contracts and buying them out instead of trying to trade them. Glass-half-full Knicks fans trumpeted Eddy Curry’s “break out� season as one bright spot, but actually Curry did nothing different than in previous years other than stay on the court longer – he scored at the same rate as before but played 7 more minutes per game than his career average. He shot a career high percentage from the field (but a career low from the line) and contributed his usual lousy rebounding, mind-bogglingly weak passing, and nonexistent defense. He played 35% more minutes per game than the season before and scored 43% more points per game. Not exactly an amazing jump in his production.

To Isiah’s credit, he has drafted a pretty good frontcourt to surround Curry – David Lee and Renaldo Balkman are high energy, dirty work players who are spectacular rebounders and, in the case of Balkman, a shockingly good defender. Lee and Balkman were a large factor in the Knicks leading the league in rebounding – strong praise, especially considering how weak a rebounder Curry is. The rest of the lineup has problems, particularly with the decline of Stephon Marbury. In addition to his game slipping, Marbury seems to be descending into some sort of delusional egomania (last year’s “The way how this world is right now, we need more people like me� quote, saying that he would like to finish his career in Italy, and his bizarre series of television interviews this offseason).
So of course the Knicks added Zach Randolph, an acquisition which I cast my doubts upon earlier this season. I think that Curry paired with Randolph will make for such a poor defensive unit that they will have a hard time staying on the court and that there wont be enough shots to go around to keep either of them happy.

The circus continues in Madison Square Garden, as the front office mayhem continues to make as many headlines as the players. I think that James Dolan has an ulterior motive at work in the way he has run this team, and I will write a longer post about it later this week (hint: on Thursday, Cablevision shareholders will vote on the Dolan family’s buyout bid to take the company private). But I think that the overall talent level of this team is debatable, and the distractions far too many to overcome. This team will not be any better than it was last year, even with Zach Randolph. They win 35.

5: Philadelphia: Normally when you trade away a superstar you get screwed in the deal. The Sixers, however, did pretty well on the Iverson trade. Not for the quality of players they got back, but for the roster flexibility they get next season. As for what that means for this year, though … well, it will be a long season in Philly.

Billy King’s reign of error has one more season in luxury tax land, but after this season they will drop well below the salary cap as Chris Webber, Aaron McKie and Kevin Ollie’s contracts finally expire. What that does mean, however, is that Philadelphia will probably just cruise along without making much noise this season, just waiting until after the season to remake the roster.

After Iverson left, Andre Iguodala was a revelation in more ways than one – he showed off a much more varied offensive game than people knew he had, and it became clear that you can only go so far with Andre Iguodala leading the way. Samuel Dalembert has the center position locked up and Andre Miller provides a steady hand at point guard. The forward positions are in a state of flux. Thaddeus Young will probably get the nod at small forward (and has a chance to be a really good player in a couple of years) and power forward is pretty much an open competition between Shavlik Randolph, Reggie Evans and draftees Jason Smith and Herbert Hill.

Well, a $72 million roster doesn’t get you much these days, does it. The Sixers have a long road ahead of them. To their credit, they didn’t fold last season after the Iverson trade, and hopefully they will keep fighting this year, knowing that the roster should get a big influx of talent this offseason. However, the roster has way too many holes and this season they will struggle to win 30 games. If they are serious about rebuilding, though, hopefully it starts with getting a new GM.