The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

All too often I encounter NBA-related clothing on the internet, frequently in the style of t-shirts.  It’s time to give that clothing its due and spotlight it.  Here’s the first of what hopefully will be many t-shirts you will almost consider buying.

Zombie Sonics

Remember the Seattle Supersonics?  That team that used to feature the Glove and the Reign Man before Clay Bennett whisked them away to Oklahoma City?  They’re back, at least on this t-shirt.

Now led by Kevin Durant, the team plays on the youngest team in the league in OKC.  Some sportswriters refuse to refer to them by they’re new name (the Oklahoma City Thunder) and instead prefer different incarnations, Zombie Sonics apparently being a favorite of Tree & Leaf Clothing.

Enjoy yourself, starting at $23.99.

Is that they are boring.

And I mean that in a good way.

Last year I had so much to write about. The team was such a colossal mess that it was really fun to come up with all sorts of things. The coaching was awful. The team had some of the worst on-court chemistry imaginable. Larry Harris had collected some of the worst contracts imaginable. It was a complete train wreck. It was painful to watch. And so much fun to write about.

This year, it’s a lot harder.

Some of that is me. Last year I had one child and was a stay-at-home dad. This year I have two children and a job as well. So I don’t have as much time to think about interesting things to say, but there isn’t that much going on to complain about, make fun of, or point out as unexpected.

This year the Bucks have won every game they should have and lost every one they should have. Now, compared to last year that is a huge improvement. I’m sure that with Larry Krystkowiak at the helm they would have found a way to lose on November 5th against Washington and on Saturday night at Charlotte, and probably would have managed to lose to the 7-man Knick crew on Friday (considering that the Bucks blew 17-point third quarter leads to the Knicks twice last year).

To build their 7-8 record they have beaten 6 bad teams and it is debatable just how good San Antonio is right now without Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker (according to me and to IPM: not good at all). They have lost to 7 good teams, plus Chicago on opening night, which was a justifiable loss in my book. Going 1-3 in the at Boston – Phoenix – at Cleveland – San Antonio stretch? Justifiable. Looking awful in Denver and Utah without Redd or Villanueva? No big deal — those two high-altitude teams have the biggest home court advantage in the league.

This team is a heck of a lot better this year than it was last year. The chemistry is better, the defense is better, the coaching is better, the expectations are more realistic. You know, once they get Michael Redd back then they will add the scoring they have been lacking. Maybe this team will be capable of playing .500 ball all year with one hot 10-of-13 win streak in there, and that will propel them to 47 wins and a 6 seed. It’s nice to know that you can go to the Bradley Center and know that you will either see the Bucks play a competitive game against a good team or soundly beat a bad one.

But they sure aren’t as much fun to write about.

Meanwhile, I’ve updated my IPM rankings and Team Power Rankings, which are available at these links and always on the links on the right hand side of the page.

A couple of other random, general NBA thoughts:

I’m not surprised the Thunder fired PJ Carliesimo on Saturday. I watched most of the Friday night Thunder-Hornets game and thought that the Thunder looked like the worst NBA team I have ever seen. There was no semblance of a team concept on either end of the floor. I don’t think there was a single interior defensive rotation all night — I couldn’t believe how many open layups and uncontested follow up baskets the Hornets got. Meanwhile, I think I saw Kevin Durant touch the ball no more than three times in the entire time I watched. You can justify being awful if the cornerstone of your franchise is active in the game, but he was just floating along out there. Add to that the game was on ESPN and was against the Hornets — a team that many people in Oklahoma City most likely identify with more closely than the Thunder given the way the team wound up in OKC — and I can imagine that the Thunder owners were just embarrassed by Friday night’s performance. They suck, and with all of the shenanigans involved in stealing the team from Seattle, I’m glad.

Greg Oden is dominant. Yes, that’s right. After his career got off to a problematic start with the sprained foot in his first game, Oden has managed to average a 0.927 IPM in 19.5 minutes per game. Basically, his per-minute performance has him as the 8th best center in the game and within shouting distance of 5th best. As expected, Oden has been a rebounding machine (over 15 per 40 minutes) and shot-blocking threat (about 4 per 40 minutes) while he has shot 51% from the floor and has not turned it over much (zero turnovers in three of the five games where he has played over 16 minutes). Basically, he hasn’t hurt his team on offense (taking care of the ball and not shooting poorly) while stepping on to the floor as one of the best per-minute rebounders in the league. He might not start all season because of his health issues, but he could be the most important player in the league who averages less than 30 minutes per game this year.

The Knicks appear to know what they are doing (shudder). It hurts me to say it, but the Knicks made two great trades last week. Not only did they dump enough long-term salary to make a run at LeBron James in two years, but I think they actually improved themselves right now. Jamal Crawford may have been their leading scorer, but his game is so full of holes it’s pathetic. He scores and that’s it — no defense, no conscience about taking bad shots, nothing that helps you win. I once read a quote from Crawford where he said he always played in the Rucker Park tournament in the summer because “that’s where you work on your game.” That’s Crawford’s idea of how to play basketball? Streetball?

Meanwhile, the subtraction of black-hole Zach Randolph should help as well. Randolph puts up great scoring and rebounding numbers but is one of the laziest defenders around and screws up any sort of offensive flow with his need to get the ball in “his” spots on the floor to be effective.

The Knicks won’t be able to get a rebound any longer but by adding Al Harrington and Cuttino Mobely will actually be able to run Mike D’Antoni’s offense properly.

Now, will they actually sign LeBron James in two years … you know, I don’t think so. The whole LeBron pursuit thing has been so played up and will only be a bigger and bigger story over the next two years. I can’t help but feel that LeBron will risk so much bad press should he switch teams (and assuming that Cleveland remains highly competitive) that his marketing people will tell him that his image as an endorser could suffer. So much is made of how much “more money” he can make playing in New York, but if the consumer’s image of him becomes that of a disloyal, spotlight-hungry slut the potential losses would be huge. I’m not saying that Nike would drop him, but there is nothing to say that the endorsement rewards would be as large as one might think. Backlashes can be funny things.

Boy, has this division seen some changes this offseason. One team bolts town, another trades one of their best players for a second round pick, and another adds the #1 pick from last year. But one thing doesn’t change: Jerry Sloan is still on top.

1-Utah: After winning 54 games and seeing Deron Williams blossom into one of the top 4 point guards on the planet, there isn’t much reason for Utah to make changes. And change the didn’t. They seem to have given up on the idea of trading Andrei Kirilenko (probably a good idea) and are sticking with the plan that between CJ Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Morris Almond they must have one decent shooting guard in there (Miles might surprise some people this year). One thing about the Jazz’ record that makes last year seem as though it was no fluke was that they were a pretty mediocre 17-24 on the road — their dominance at home is pretty much a given and with a couple of lucky breaks there is room for improvement on the road as well.

Last year: won 54 games.

+2 wins because they will be better on the road this year.
+1 win from the “Carlos Boozer contract year” effect (he can opt-out after the season, but apparently the Jazz are trying to sign him to an extension).
+1 win from the continued dominance of Deron Williams.

This year: 58-24.

2-Portland: No offense to John Hammond, but I wish Kevin Pritchard was my GM. He has built one of the most talented teams in the league and is set to drop $35 million under the salary cap this offseason. Meanwhile, he adds last years’ #1 pick, Greg Oden, to the team this year and stole Jerryd Bayless from Larry Bird as well. I’m not much of a Bayless fan — I don’t see how his helter-skelter style fits in with the organized system Roy, Aldridge and Oden are suited for and it seems like dominating summer league like he did is usually correlates with not doing anything at the NBA level. That said, Jarret Jack is a nice player who doesn’t do a whole lot for me and I don’t think much of Brandon Rush at all. The Bayless trade was a good risk for the Blazers — they didn’t give much up and just because I don’t like him doesn’t mean anything. I’ve been wrong before. Meanwhile, I think Greg Oden will prove to be very similar to Dikembe Mutombo early in his career — capable of dominating games with his rebounding and shot blocking, despite being a little raw offensively. You add a defensive anchor to this team and a year of improvement and you get a big jump this year and most likely 60 wins and a title three years from now.

Last year: won 41 games.

+6 wins from the arrival of Greg Oden.
+2 wins from the improvement of the Roy/Outlaw/Aldridge nucleus.
-2 wins from weakness at point guard and difficulty integrating Bayless into the system.

This year: 47-35.

3- Denver: George Karl has never struck me as much of a coach. He pretty much rolls the balls out onto the floor and lets the guys do what they want. He needs a dominant personality on his team to be on the same page as him, and it’s no coincidence that he had success with Gary Payton in Seattle and then mortgaged the Bucks’ future by pushing to get him again. Meanwhile, financial concerns are all set to blow up this Denver team. Allen Iverson is starting to show his age, and it seems pretty much settled that Carmelo Anthony doesn’t have the game or attention span (He is well known as one of the biggest partiers in the league. OJ Mayo got in trouble with the NCAA for accepting tickets from Anthony, after Mayo joked around with him that he was staying out too late the night before a Lakers game) to get through a whole NBA season, and is better suited for short, Olympic-style tournaments. The Nuggets are hamstrung with horrible contracts to Kenyon Martin and Nene, and this offseason’s trade of Marcus Camby for nothing is a clear indication that the team is all set to give up, let Iverson’s contract expire after the season, and start over. George Karl has no chance to motivate this bunch.

Last year: won 50 games.

-5 games from the loss of their only defender, Marcus Camby.
-2 games from the decline of Allen Iverson.
+1 game from the theft of Renaldo Balkman from the Knicks.
-2 games from the inevitable breakdown from the $25.7 million combo of Nene and Kenyon Martin.
-6 games from the fact that George Karl is a horrible coach for motivating a bad team.

This year: 36-46.

4-Minnesota: Give Kevin McHale some credit — he found the only GM in the league who is worse than him in Chris Wallace and stole Kevin Love and Mike Miller in exchange for the next Larry Hughes in OJ Mayo. This all came after McHale spent the pre-draft period talking about how badly he wanted a center so that Al Jefferson could go back to power forward and Ryan Gomes to small forward because as a center and power forward the two of them were the worst defensive tandem in the league. Then McHale did the smart thing and got the best player available instead of messing around with drafting for need. And he stole Mike Miller. And got rid of Antoine Walker and Marko Jaric in the deal. Nice move. However, the whole plan almost fell apart two weeks ago when Blake Ahearn fell into Al Jefferson’s knee. They say he will be back in two weeks and I’m basing my projection on this being true. But I hate to make assumptions like that about knee injuries.

Last year: won 22 games.

+4 games from Al Jefferson’s improvement.
+3 games from Kevin Love’s presence, who should pay immediate dividends.
-3 games from Al Jefferson being forced to play center. He’s as bad as Eddy Curry defensively at that position, but at least it’s not from lack of effort.
+3 games from Mike Miller’s presence, which really says more about how he will keep other T-Wolves (particularly Rashad McCants) off of the court than what Miller will do on it.

This year: 29-53. Still not good, but an improvement.

5- Oklahoma City: There isn’t much to say about this team. They don’t care about their record, only about amassing draft picks and cap room. They should concentrate on the picks, since they can have all the cap room in the world but wont be able to sign anyone of note in the sprawling metropolis of Oklahoma City. The team has a budding star in Kevin Durant and a couple of interesting players in Russell Westbrook and Saer Sene (not too excited about Jeff Green, though) but not much interest in anyone else on their own roster. The fans are excited for NBA basketball and all, but they aren’t going to see much of it from their own team.

Last year: 20 wins.

+3 wins from the improvement of Kevin Durant.
+3 wins from moving from the angry fans of Seattle to the college atmosphere in OKC

This year: 26-56.

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6′7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6′11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

Reality check.

In my recent post about the value of Andrew Bogut’s contract extension, I pointed out that the realities of the salary cap means that the Bucks are going to have to do something this offseason to avoid a likely luxury tax bill in the 2009/10 season, the first year of Bogut’s extension.

The failure to plan around Bogut’s extension will wind up being the biggest mistake the Larry Harris ever made. He always seemed to believe that he had a much better team than he did, and now the new GM will have to make moves to avoid the cash crunch that Harris created.

I’m not talking about the Bobby Simmons signing, but signing Gadzuric and Bell. At least Simmons was supposed to be a starter.

After drafting Bogut, Harris signed Gadzuric (who was a restricted free agent) to a six-year contract extension that exceeded the midlevel. Of course, even if a team had come to Gadzuric and offered him a near-max deal the Bucks could have afforded to let him go since they not only had Bogut but Pachulia was a restricted free agent as well. Instead, Harris signed Gadzuric to a contract that has paid him more than Bogut up to this point, when Gadzuric was signed to be a full-time backup, and lasts past the point where Bogut is eligible for an extension.

The same disastrous mistake was made with Charlie Bell. Maybe Bell had been a valuable contributor to the Bucks in 2006/07, but he was a contributor to a 25 win team! How much can he possibly be worth? Then, after Bell tried to talk his way out of Milwaukee and got a ridiculous offer from Miami, why wouldn’t the Bucks let him go in order to not pay him $3.5 million in Bogut’s extension year? I have no problem with Charlie Bell getting paid, but why should the Bucks be the ones to pay him?

Anyway, as I showed with this chart, should the salary cap keep growing at the same pace that it has averaged (5% a year) then the Bucks, should they not do anything, would find themselves at the luxury tax in the 2009/10 season with only 11 players on the roster. Assuming that the cap will expand at that rate, however, is a big if, as the economy is doing so poorly and attendance and league revenues are down this season. It is conceivable that the luxury tax in 09/10 could be closer to $67 million, while the Bucks (assuming $11 million to Bogut that year) are already on the hook for $68.

This means that the Bucks are going to have to make a move right now to ensure that a big chunk of salary will fall by the wayside next offseason. The team right now has a painful collection of good players that don’t work very well together. But it’s a fact of life that in order to get better you sometimes have to make trades that make you worse. Let me make one thing clear , these trade proposals that I am writing about now are not supposed to propel the Bucks deep into the playoffs , they are meant to be the first step in rebuilding the roster into a more compatible group of talent.

Obviously, if you want to cut salary then you could trade Michael Redd for a similar, shorter contract. I’m not looking in that direction, since you could never get anything close to fair value back, and you wouldn’t be able to rid yourself of one of the bad contracts (Gadzuric or Simmons) in the process.

For the purposes of this post, I’ve also given up on moving Gadzuric. Since Simmons has a shorter contract with a larger salary, he will have more value than Danny G in a cap-move trade. Basically, the team acquiring Simmons would get a useless player but still have a nice-sized expiring contract to look forward to the following season.

One might say that the Bucks would be better off keeping Simmons instead of dumping him, paying a small luxury tax bill in 09/10 and reaping the cap room when his $10 million contract expires in the summer of 2010. The problem with this is that most of the cap room created by Simmons’ exit will immediately be absorbed by the six players that we do know for sure will still be on the team — $1 million to Redd and Yi, a likely $1 million to Bogut, about $500,000 apiece to the 2008 and 2009 first round picks, and $1-$3 million to the 2010 first round pick. If the Bucks are a near-luxury tax team in the summer of 2010, Simmons’ exit will likely only result in a $3-$5 million savings.

Of course you have to give something up to get something back, and that means it is time for Mo Williams to go. Williams has blossomed into a very, very nice player and efficient scorer, but I don’t think that the combination of him and Redd will ever be good enough defensively to win consistently. Mo has a reasonable, if sizable, contract and could be moved to several teams that are looking for a point guard, and when his contract is combined with Simmons’, it would equal the value of some of the large expiring contracts out there.

So here are four trade scenarios that would serve the purpose of shedding salary. I have not included how draft picks might be included in these deals, but since the Bucks are always giving up the best player in the proposal, one would assume that they should get back something:

The trades and how they affect the Bucks’ projected salary cap situation are available here.

#1: Mo Williams and Bobby Simmons to New York for Stephon Marbury and Renaldo Balkman (Bucks save $19 million in 2009/10): I hate everything about Marbury, both on and off the court, but I like his $22 million expiring contract. Obviously, in this scenario the Bucks would have to draft a point guard with the idea of turning the reins over to him after Marbury leaves. Since Marbury has gone completely nuts, the Bucks would have to bring him in and tell him: “Look, any incident and you are gone, bought out, we never see you again.” But never underestimate the power of the expiring contract to make a player bring his “A” game on the court and keep his mouth shut off of it (see Patterson, Ruben). Balkman would be an excellent addition as a small forward who can defend and rebound, and would have to be included to make up for the fact that the Knicks don’t have any draft picks to trade to make this proposal more equitable for the Bucks. No doubt, though, that the Bucks had better have a plan “B” in place for point guard if they do get Marbury , there are no guarantees he even is capable of running a team any more.

#2: Williams and Simmons to Portland for Raef LaFrentz, Travis Outlaw, and Sergio Rodriguez (Bucks save $13.5 million in 2009/10): It’s a shame that LaFrentz’s knees gave out on him, and he’s good for nothing more than $12.7 million of expiring contract. Outlaw is a talented player who inexplicably spent most of the season out of position and losing minutes to Martell Webster, despite dramatically outplaying him. He is a big, athletic, slashing small forward , exactly what the Bucks need , and has a reasonable 3 years/$12 million remaining on his contract. Rodriguez is a talented, young player who might be the most exciting passer since Jason Williams, but the attendant turnover ration has kept “Spanish Chocolate” on the bench. He’s a worthwhile risk. The Bucks would save money, but would need to find a starting point guard from another source for next season. Portland has been searching for a point guard, and were a rumored participant in the Jason Kidd sweepstakes at the trade deadline.

#3: Williams and Simmons to Seattle for Chris Wilcox, Luke Ridnour, and Donyell Marshall (Bucks save $13 million in 09/10): Seattle gets two things from this deal , they clear part of their point guard logjam by adding a definite starter in Williams and also clear their power forward logjam for Durant, Jeff Green and possibly Michael Beasley. The Bucks, who get three useless players, would need draft picks back in this scenario. But Seattle is a good team to chat with for that , they have five first round picks in the next three seasons — their own, plus Phoenix’s 2008 (lottery protected) and 2010 (unprotected) picks. Also, Seattle will be about $7 million under the salary cap this offseason, so they could theoretically take back more salary than they send out. This means that this trade could be completed without Wilcox.

#4: Williams, Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric to Seattle for Chris Wilcox, Luke Ridnour, and Donyell Marshall (Bucks save $13 million in 09/10): I only include this because it is another scenario with Seattle that most likely wouldn’t require the Bucks to get valuable picks back , not only would they lose two awful contracts, but would retain the Simmons bargaining chip, who could be paired with Villanueva in another deal. Both of these Seattle proposals still leave the Bucks in a tough spot regarding a starting point guard , Ridnour doesn’t really fill the role. There is one reason that Seattle may actually want Gadzuric instead of Simmons , Danny G’s contract has an extra year on it, so it will expire right when Kevin Durant becomes eligible for an extension. Sam Presti may actually want a longer contract in order to postpone some of his cap space (potentially $30 million in the summer of 2009) until then.

So there you have it , these are the sort of trades that the new GM is going to have to pursue in order to try and rebuild this team around Andrew Bogut. The good thing is that they would clear salary space to use their one other tradable player , Villanueva , to bring back something that they can actually use. Besides, as much as we love Mo, the facts are clear , he has turned into a terrific player who was only capable of leading this team to less than 60 wins in the past two seasons. It’s time to rebuild, and awful deals like these are where it starts.

Without much new Bucks news to report, it’s tim to look at the rest of the league. The trade deadline this season brought several interesting moves that changed the landscape of this NBA season drastically. What happened to the whole “NBA GM’s are afraid to take any risks” label? It sure disappeared this season. But who won and who lost?

To try and put each teams’ moves in perspective, I looked at how the overall IPM’s of each team changed before and after each move. IPM (impacts per minute), in case you are not familiar, is my proprietary statistical player ranking method. It gives a good picture of how a player’s overall game influences his value on the court. The methodology is available here, player performance to date is available here, and team power rankings are available here. This information is always available through the links on the right side of this page, under the heading “IPM Data”.

To calculate the impact that trades had on a team, I averaged the IPM scores for each teams’ top 8 players both before and after the trade deadline. By calculating the percentage change in the data, one can surmise how a team’s prospects have changed. It’s not an absolute judgment, but a very good starting point.

On to the reviews:

The Losers:

Memphis: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.754; Post-deadline IPM, 0.678 (-10.1%).
Traded Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Assorted Beads and Trinkets, and Jason Collins.
While the Gasol trade was a total joke considering how little they got back, it was the right thing to do. They weren’t going anywhere with Gasol, so it was time to start over. Given the unstable situation this team is in, getting cap space and a bunch of draft picks is the best thing for them, since they weren’t in any position to try and win anything for years anyway.

Seattle: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.737; Post-deadline IPM, 0.711 (-3.6%).
Traded Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Kurt Thomas for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Donyell Marshall, Adrian Griffin, and Ira Newble.
Impressive job by Sam Presti to manage to acquire only one player who would fit into their top 8 (Barry), and he was promptly waived. The interesting thing here is that Presti made deals that he didn’t have to (he doesn’t save significant money and will still have cap room coming) and he received players he didn’t need in order to help out San Antonio and Cleveland , the two NBA teams that have employed him in the past. Remember how Greg Popovich was whining that the league should have a “fairness committee” or something to strike down the Gasol trade? I don’t think he’s complaining any more.

Houston: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.842; Post-deadline IPM, 0.813 (-3.5%).
Traded Kirk Snyder, Mike James and Bonzi Wells for Bobby Jackson and Gerald Green.
I think the numbers lie here. Houston didn’t lose much. Credit Daryl Morey for taking the opportunity to rid his locker room of some headaches, even though the team has been playing exceptionally well. James and Wells were putting up decent per-minute numbers but weren’t playing all that much, and by adding Jackson they roll the dice on yet another backup point guard. Green is a good gamble, especially since he now gets to learn from the player he is most often compared to, Tracy McGrady (the jury is out on whether that turns out to be a good thing).

Phoenix: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.807 (-2.5%).
Traded Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.
When I first heard of this move I thought it was a mistake for the Suns. Now I’ve seen them play with Shaq, and I’m convinced it was a colossal mistake. A team-killing mistake.
The trade doesn’t work on so many levels. I don’t understand the logic of wanting to improve their defense and rebounding and cut payroll, so their method of doing this was to trade their best defender and second best rebounder for a player who cannot defend or rebound any longer and is paid more and for longer. Meanwhile Shaq has not been able to stay healthy for more than 10 games at a time for years, and he now goes to a team whose coach has been derided for using too shallow a rotation for years? Incredibly, the Suns now only have nine players who average over seven minutes a game! I know Marcus Banks is terrible, but now they have to give his minutes to DJ Strawberry. Is that an improvement?
The whole “Marion is a superior player to O’Neal at this stage” argument aside, there’s another thing: for the Suns to make a deep playoff run they will have to play about 50 more games. In a conference that is so tightly bunched that a 5 game losing streak might knock you out of the playoffs altogether, what are the odds that Shaq will be able to stay healthy and contribute in most of those 50 games? 30%? 40%? To be charitable, 60%? Meanwhile, there’s a 95% chance Marion would be around for whatever the team needed from him.
I understand that Phoenix wasn’t happy with the team chemistry and blamed Marion (which is funny because the problem with Marion is that he blames everyone around him for all kinds of stuff , real and imaginary). But it would not surprise me at all if Phoenix misses the playoffs this season because of this trade.

Teams that Didn’t Change Much:

Chicago: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.765; Post-deadline IPM, 0.751 (-1.4%).
Traded Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin for Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons.
Sort of like Memphis, the Bulls weren’t going anywhere this season, and long-term this was a good move. The Ben Wallace signing was not working out and by trading his cap-killer contract for Hughes’, at least the Bulls now free up court time for Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas.

New Jersey: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.796; Post-deadline IPM, 0.786 (-1.3%).
Traded Jason Kidd, Antoine Wright and Jason Collins for Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, DeSagna Diop, and Stromile Swift.
Actually, New Jersey did a pretty good job considering they were trading a superstar. While Harris is no Kidd, he’s an up-and-coming player who recently signed a pretty reasonable contract extension. He’s certain to be better than Kidd two years from now. Diop was a nice acquisition, making up for the loss of Collins’ defense. I’m sure that they are pretty disappointed they didn’t move Vince Carter as well, but there has to be something to make their master plan of being under the cap in 2010 (for a run at LeBron James) more difficult.

Atlanta: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.759; Post-deadline IPM, 0.750 (-1.2%).
Traded Shelden Williams and Other Assorted Spare Parts for Mike Bibby.
Hey, look! Atlanta did something! And they got a point guard! This trade only shows up negative in the IPM because Bibby was coming back from thumb surgery a little slowly. This was an excellent move by Atlanta, as they got the player they needed, traded away four guys they didn’t, and dumped a huge draft bust in Williams. This trade should solidify their playoff position and an opportunity to get hammered by Boston in the first round.

Dallas: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.811; Post-deadline IPM, 0.817 (+0.8%).
Traded Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris and DeSagna Diop for Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright.
Between Jerry Stackhouse’s big mouth, Devean George’s obnoxious agent, an unnecessary $10 million in extra luxury tax payment, maybe Mark Cuban should have gotten the message: God thinks this is a bad trade for the Mavericks.
Enough has been written about “Jason Kidd is a great leader, general, blah blah blah” so that everyone forgets that he whined his way out of Dallas 10 years ago because he and Jim Jackson both wanted to date Toni Braxton. He’s fought with every coach he’s ever had and brought his personal problems to every team he’s been affiliated with.
I know that everyone loves playing with him, but Cuban just gave up a lot to acquire a guy who is 35 and was complaining about his contract before the trade. Also, Kidd’s shooting, never a strength, has slipped to 36% this season. He was still rebounding like a maniac (for a point guard), but it remains to be seen how that will hold up now that he’s on a team full of great rebounders.
I have one other question , who is supposed to guard Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chris Paul? Kidd couldn’t keep Parker out of the lane in the finals four years ago!
Honestly, the more I think about this trade the more I think that Jason Kidd offers such a marginal improvement to Dallas that they gave up way too much to get him.

Miami: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.752; Post-deadline IPM, 0.765 (+1.7%).
Traded Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
I thought this move would propel Miami firmly into mediocrity (which is a big improvement from “laughingstock”) but at 0-5 since the trade, that sure hasn’t happened. I’m glad that Miami did this trade because it will give an interesting look at whether Marion truly is a great, underrated player (as most stats analysts have said for years) or just a product of the Phoenix system who was made great by Steve Nash. When you look at the ratio of dollars per minute played, though, this was a great move by Miami, and probably their last chance to get rid of Shaquille O’Neal before he could barely play any longer.

The Winners:

San Antonio: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.850 (+2.7%).
Traded Brent Barry and Francisco Elson for Kurt Thomas.
Got to love Phoenix’s roster management. They trade away Kurt Thomas to get his salary off their books, and then decide they need to make a panic trade because Thomas was the only player they had to match up with Tim Duncan. Meanwhile, the Spurs nab Thomas for themselves, and now they are the ones with a fresh body to throw at Shaq, Yao, Chandler, Bynum and Camby in the playoffs.
The rich get richer.

New Orleans: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.772; Post-deadline IPM, 0.794 (+2.8%).
Traded Bobby Jackson for Bonzi Wells and Mike James.
This was a funny trade for Houston and New Orleans. The Rockets , a division rival — gave the Hornets exactly what they needed (bench scoring from multiple positions) and took what the Hornets don’t need (a backup point guard) in return. You almost have to ask: What’s the catch?
Looks like Houston sure was desperate to rid themselves of those guys, but when a team has a great point guard like Chris Paul to boost everyone else’s stats, that sort of locker room whining probably disappears in a hurry.
With the West so bunched up and every team a 5-game losing streak away from falling out of the playoffs altogether, the Hornets needed to make a move like this to ensure they have enough firepower. The surprise team of the regular season might be ready for a deep playoff run now.

Los Angeles Lakers: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.818; Post-deadline IPM, 0.848 (+3.7%).
Traded Nobody They Wanted and Two Draft Picks That Will be in the Late 20’s for Pau Gasol.
What’s amazing is that Kwame Brown was only the 12th best player on the Lakers in the first place, and they turned him into a multiple-time all-star. What more can be said about this deal? Once Andrew Bynum returns then this team is immediately one of the top two or three in the West. The only thing that should be able to stop the Lakers from at least reaching the Conference Finals would be Kobe Bryant’s injured finger becoming worse.

Cleveland: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.755; Post-deadline IPM, 0.803 (+6.4%).
Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons for Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Sczcerbiak, and Delonte West.
How bad was the non-LeBron portion of the Cavs’ roster before the deadline? Every player they added became one of their top 8 by IPM, and one of those was Ben Wallace!
It’s really incredible how pathetic that team was before the break, and amazing that LeBron was able to carry them to the finals this season. Now, even with Boston and Detroit in the picture, they might be able to get back there this season.
Suddenly their roster has become deep and well-composed. Wallace still has value as a team defender, Smith is a nice all-around player who is a good complement for Varejao, and Delonte West suddenly becomes a valuable piece with the injury to Daniel Gibson.
But Sczcerbiak is the key here , he’s the shooter than the Cavaliers have been seeking for years, and while he can’t guard a chair, he is surrounded by A-level defenders in James, Varejao, Ilgauskas and Wallace.

Thanks to the trade deadline, the Eastern Conference has three powers now.

After enjoying my Saturday afternoon by watching the Bulls and Knicks trip all over each other, I started thinking of a few of the things I’ve noticed in the league so far:

Why is Dallas on fire? Avery Johnson has changed the starting lineup for the Mavs this season, and it is paying dividends already. He’s gone “defense”, starting DeSagna Diop and Brandon Bass along with Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. The result has been very interesting — by giving significant minutes to two defensive-minded players (Bass is averaging 22 mpg and Diop 28) it has essentially made the offensive workload easier for the other starters by reducing some of the defensive responsibilities they have. It helps that Jason Terry has responded by playing spectacular ball, shooting 53% to start the season. Nowitzki, Howard, Terry and Harris are all posting .95+ IPM’s, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team with 4 players putting up numbers like that. Lucky the Bucks catch Dallas in the second game of a back-to-back, because that’s how you want to face the best teams.

What’s wrong with the Bulls? They are horrible right now. Just awful. I mean, if you lose to the Knicks then something just isn’t right. I don’t buy into the idea that the Kobe story is bugging the team, but the whole Deng/Gordon contract thing might be. More importantly, though, is that the Bulls frontcourt isn’t pulling its weight. Maybe it’s the ankle injury from the preseason, but Ben Wallace isn’t staying on the court long enough (down to 28 mpg) or rebounding well at all (#81 in the league, down from #26). But I think the real problem is that the miss PJ Brown more than people realize. Tyrus Thomas is a nice enough player, but he isn’t offensively skilled enough that you can run an offense through him. Since they don’t have any penetrators, they simply can’t draw any fouls, and their offense has regressed into a helter-skelter “fire it around the perimeter and throw up the first uncontested shot” instead of a patient series of entry passes and kick-outs. At least Brown could take a shot in the paint once in a while and keep defenders somewhat honest. The Bulls have started slowly each of the last 3 seasons, but this season looks like a real problem — you can’t shoot better as a team if there aren’t any good shots to take.

Is Seattle mis-handling Kevin Durant? I don’t really understand the logic of using Durant at shooting guard. I get it that he isn’t physically ready to guard 260-pound power forwards, but why would the Sonics expect him to be able to stay in front of other shooting guards on the defensive end? Using him at the “2″ pulls him away from the basket, and has just turned him into a high-volume, low-percentage jump shooter. His rebounding numbers are awful, and he’s not getting to the basket at all. Wouldn’t the learning experince of this season be better if he is actually playing the same position that he will in the future> Maybe his numbers this season would be a little worse if he was playing small forward, but in the long term, I think that playing him at shooting guard right now is a waste.

Oh, and I’d say it’s pretty clear that the Sonics are planning on leaving town, since they didn’t take Yi over Jeff Green at #5. It’s not like Ichiro hasn’t worked out okay for the Mariners.

Now let’s see what the Bucks can do against the Mavs!

The Northwest division contains all the elements of a fine Victorian-era tragedy. Wealthy, volatile favorites. A whiny Russian. A potential superstar. Another potential superstar facing adversity. And a chorus of snowbound alley-dwellers hailing from the upper Midwest. This season this division will contain 3 of the worst teams in the NBA , albeit two with exceptionally bright futures , and my dark-horse contender for the championship.

1: Denver: First of all, I hate everything about Allen Iverson’s game. I’ve always felt he was overrated, made the game harder on his teammates, and was such a low-percentage scorer that all of his machinations made it that much harder for his teams to win. That said, Denver is the perfect place for him because they play at such a high pace that there are more quick shots to go around. Given some time for his game to meld with Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the Denver bunch, this team can give anybody trouble , and I feel that this team will be one of the final 4 standing in April, because the thin air of Denver should give the Nuggets an almost insurmountable edge in a playoff series.

The Nuggets have a deep roster, but the one question mark is injuries. While their frontcourt of Camby and Nene is active and excellent defensively, neither player has been able to play a whole season in years and despite their best efforts to increase depth, the loss of either of these rebounding machines late in the season could torpedo their year.

I never could understand all the noise about JR Smith’s “breakout season” last year , he seemed like little more than a defensively-challenged standstill shooter to me, and one with a well documented bad attitude at that. The Nuggets seemed to agree with me, signing Chucky Atkins to provide a point guard who is a three-point threat, moving Iverson to shooting guard and Smith to the bench. The Nuggets don’t have a backup point guard of note (and since Iverson plays 40+ minutes a night, probably intend to use him at that position), but other than that Denver has good depth in Smith, Eduardo Najera, Steven Hunter and Linas Kleiza.

Questions abound about this team , particularly regarding team chemistry , but George Karl has succeeded in this situation (in Seattle) before, and at the end of the year last season was seeing pretty good results (after squeaking into the playoffs as the 7 seed, they had a tough series with San Antonio). I foresee a team that gets up and down the floor, scores lots of points, and keeps the egos in check enough to make the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs. 52 wins this year

2: Utah: Don’t you kind of get the feeling that everything went too perfectly for the Jazz last season? Deron Williams busted out as a bona-fide star, Carlos Boozer had his first healthy season in his third with the Jazz and finally justified his contract, and Paul Millsap turned out to be the steal of the draft. The Jazz rode the wave to the Western Conference finals, looked like they were a couple of players away from taking a shot at the championship “¦ and then were silent this offseason.

It actually makes some sense , I think the Jazz looked at their payroll and the competition and realized that no matter what they did they aren’t ready for a championship run , but if they play their cards right, the window may open for them in two or three years. So why break the bank now? In 2 years, Williams, Boozer and Okur will all be eligible for extensions, so while Utah’s big hole last season was at shooting guard (exacerbated by the loss of Derek Fisher), they are addressing the position this season by throwing out a rookie (Morris Almond), a second year player (Ronnie Brewer) and a 2005 second round pick (CJ Miles). This sounds to me like a 2-year open audition: “Hey, we are going to have 3 starters making big money in 2009-10, who wants to play shooting guard for $1-$3 million?” Honestly, it’s not all that illogical a maneuver , to compete for a championship right now, Utah would have needed to add a Kobe Bryant-caliber player. That wasn’t going to happen, so now they try to position themselves to make a run after the Nowitzki/Duncan/Nash era fades past its prime.

Which leads us to the Kirilenko issue. Lost in the whole Kirilenko “my-wife-says-I-can-sleep-with-someone-else-once-a-year-I-hate-Jerry-Sloan” complaining, was the fact that Andrei was awful last year. The problem is that while Kirilenko is a matchup nightmare at power forward, slithering around defenders for baskets and blocking shots from the weak side at will, he had a hard time playing small forward with the emergence of Boozer. Offensively, he doesn’t shoot well enough to carry his weight at the “3″ and defensively he gets pulled away from the basket, making it harder to rebound and freelance for blocks and steals. Kirilenko makes tons of money and doesn’t want to be in Utah any more, so trade him, right? Maybe not , his contract has 4 years left, so for the Jazz to trade him for expiring contracts (in order to extend Williams, Boozer and Okur) to have cap room in the 2009 offseason then they need to make that move next year, not now.

I feel that Utah will spend this season in a sort of holding pattern , good enough to cruise into the playoffs, not good enough to make much noise. Denver should be improved, shutting the Jazz out of home-court advantage in the playoffs, but the rest of the division is too weak for Utah to fall all that far. It’s too bad, too, because it was fun to see the Jazz emerge with their deep playoff run last season. My guess is about 43 wins.

3 (tie): Seattle: The Sonics took second prize in the draft lottery and won sure-fire star Kevin Durant, but other than his presence this team is a complete mess. The ownership situation is a major problem that will cause a distraction all season and the roster is filled with almost nothing but role players. It appears that Seattle’s great season three years ago made management believe that the Allen-Lewis show was ready for prime time and just needed some bit parts around them. That wasn’t the case, and now three years of mismanagement won them Durant and a golden opportunity to start over.

Apparently from 2004-2006 the Sonics were getting draft advice from Matt Millen, taking flyers on project big men three years straight. To the surprise of pretty much nobody, all three have been colossal busts with Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Saer Sene barely ever seeing the floor. The Sonics claim that losing Swift to a preseason knee injury was a blow to their season, but that just begs the question , if he was showing talent, then why bother with using picks on Petro and Sene in subsequent years? Anyway, Seattle entered the draft this year almost completely devoid of useful young talent, and going nowhere except to rebuild around Durant. So they made the entirely sensible decision to cut bait with Ray Allen and work out a sign-and-trade for the ridiculous contract that Orlando offered Rashard Lewis.

The Sonics will see significant roster turnover over the upcoming seasons, and that is partially a function of needing to wait to see what Kevin Durant’s game will be like when his body matures. Right now he is a 6′10″ stringbean, understandable for a 19 year old, but will he become a 250 pound inside force or top out at 230 and depend on his long- and midrange game? Will he be a power forward or a small forward? Right now he is so explosively athletic but so physically weak that PJ Carlesimo is talking about starting him at shooting guard this year. Durant’s growth will have a major effect on the roles of the other power forwards , Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison , and Jeff Green, the only small forward on the roster after 2-year rental Wally Szczerbiak.

Seattle is kind of the anti-Portland , a roster filled with blah talent but a guaranteed end-game killer in Durant (word from the US national team was that he was sometimes the best player on the court), which should mean lots of blowout losses but a pretty good chance to win the close ones. Still, this team will be down this season and will spend most of the year shopping for new players and a new home. I’d guess that they win 30. Hopefully the fans of Seattle will still have a team when this bunch matures.

3 (tie): Boston’s AAA franchise: I think that by now it is common knowledge that the real problem in Minnesota is the owner, Glen Taylor, and the GM, Kevin McHale. After years of brutally bad management, they finally heeded the call from Boston and let them heist Kevin Garnett, while receiving Al Jefferson, Gerald Green and assorted other shiny beads and trinkets. This was the second major trade McHale has completed with his friend and former teammate Danny Ainge, and gives Minnesota an incredible 7 former Celtics on their current roster.

The T-Wolves now will rebuild around Jefferson, who put together a great 20 game streak to end last season, but the Celtics were tanking games then and finished the season on something like a 3-17 run. I guess I have to remain skeptical about a player until he does it in games that matter, but there is no doubt that Jefferson has offensive talent. His defense has been spotty, but it may come around for him. The Wolves have 3 other interesting young players , Randy Foye becomes the point guard after a spotty, injury-plagued rookie year while Gerald Green and Corey Brewer will try to make something of the small forward position. Green is a 3^rd year man who has done nothing of note beyond winning the slam dunk contest, while Brewer was widely regarded as a steal with the #8 pick in the draft. I have my doubts, however, as at 6′8″, 185 pounds Brewer desperately needs to put on some weight. He’s a defensive specialist, but how that skill will translate from guarding 19-year-old college players to 240 pound men is a question mark in my mind.

Other than that, Minnesota is made up of inexpensive veterans of dubious quality (except for Craig Smith, who was a steal in the second round last season). They made up for one mistake last season by swapping Mike James for Juwan Howard (saving several years of James’ contract in the process) and are apparently looking to trade Howard. And now their best veteran player is the famously me-first Ricky Davis, who will be gunning for his own stats in a contract year. What does it say about the Minnesota roster when the late Eddie Griffin ($2.9 million) will be their 8^th highest paid player this season? It says that they have a long way to go, and wins are a long way off. They’ll be lucky to win 30 games.

5: Portland: Even without Greg Oden this year, my God do the Trail Blazers have a lot of young talent! They have 7 former first round picks who are still in their rookie contracts, and they just extended Travis Outlaw, who is all of 23 years old. Unfortunately the future is probably two years away, as Oden will miss this season and will have to undergo his rookie trials next season, but that future is incredibly bright.

At least they have a somewhat adequate replacement for Oden in the starting lineup in Joel Pryzbilla, but he’s not much more than adequate. The rest of the starting 5 (Jarret Jack, Brandon Roy, Outlaw and LaMarcus Aldridge) is young and athletic and should keep the Blazers in a lot of games. However, finishing them will be a problem, as Portland traded away their entire offense in Zach Randolph. Randolph was heralded for his great season last year, but he really wasn’t much greater than he had been before his knee surgery. However, Randolph touched the ball on seemingly every possession last year , as often as noted ball-hogs Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas. Not a single player on this Blazers roster has experience as a go-to guy (although Roy and Aldridge are on a track to become such a player) and as the Wizards showed last playoffs when Arenas went out, that if you have a one-man offense then losing your main man is a bitter pill.

I cannot help but think that Portland will take a step back this year. Even with Randolph, the Blazers had , by my metrics , the worst offense in the league last season. They are going to be young, they are going to be exciting. But they are going to go through a lot of 4^th quarters with a hard time executing well. I don’t think they top 28 wins, but fear not , with this core, they should win 60 in 3 or 4 years.

You can watch David Noel and the Bucks Summer League team for free tonight on NBA.com, game starts at 7:30 CST. They’re taking on the Kevin Durant and the Seattle Supersonics.

Update: This is just painful to watch. I’m not talking about the playing, but it appears the only audio we’re going to get tonight is from the stadium announcers mic, no sneaker sounds, no player grunts, no actual commentary. Painful, just painful. Hopefully Easy Yi’s game will be a little more exciting to watch.

Update: No Durant tonight, I forgot he’s at the ESPYs.  Damir Markota actually looked like an NBA player tonight.  His body moved well.

Update: Bucks win, 92-85.