The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6′7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6′11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

Reality check.

In my recent post about the value of Andrew Bogut’s contract extension, I pointed out that the realities of the salary cap means that the Bucks are going to have to do something this offseason to avoid a likely luxury tax bill in the 2009/10 season, the first year of Bogut’s extension.

The failure to plan around Bogut’s extension will wind up being the biggest mistake the Larry Harris ever made. He always seemed to believe that he had a much better team than he did, and now the new GM will have to make moves to avoid the cash crunch that Harris created.

I’m not talking about the Bobby Simmons signing, but signing Gadzuric and Bell. At least Simmons was supposed to be a starter.

After drafting Bogut, Harris signed Gadzuric (who was a restricted free agent) to a six-year contract extension that exceeded the midlevel. Of course, even if a team had come to Gadzuric and offered him a near-max deal the Bucks could have afforded to let him go since they not only had Bogut but Pachulia was a restricted free agent as well. Instead, Harris signed Gadzuric to a contract that has paid him more than Bogut up to this point, when Gadzuric was signed to be a full-time backup, and lasts past the point where Bogut is eligible for an extension.

The same disastrous mistake was made with Charlie Bell. Maybe Bell had been a valuable contributor to the Bucks in 2006/07, but he was a contributor to a 25 win team! How much can he possibly be worth? Then, after Bell tried to talk his way out of Milwaukee and got a ridiculous offer from Miami, why wouldn’t the Bucks let him go in order to not pay him $3.5 million in Bogut’s extension year? I have no problem with Charlie Bell getting paid, but why should the Bucks be the ones to pay him?

Anyway, as I showed with this chart, should the salary cap keep growing at the same pace that it has averaged (5% a year) then the Bucks, should they not do anything, would find themselves at the luxury tax in the 2009/10 season with only 11 players on the roster. Assuming that the cap will expand at that rate, however, is a big if, as the economy is doing so poorly and attendance and league revenues are down this season. It is conceivable that the luxury tax in 09/10 could be closer to $67 million, while the Bucks (assuming $11 million to Bogut that year) are already on the hook for $68.

This means that the Bucks are going to have to make a move right now to ensure that a big chunk of salary will fall by the wayside next offseason. The team right now has a painful collection of good players that don’t work very well together. But it’s a fact of life that in order to get better you sometimes have to make trades that make you worse. Let me make one thing clear – these trade proposals that I am writing about now are not supposed to propel the Bucks deep into the playoffs – they are meant to be the first step in rebuilding the roster into a more compatible group of talent.

Obviously, if you want to cut salary then you could trade Michael Redd for a similar, shorter contract. I’m not looking in that direction, since you could never get anything close to fair value back, and you wouldn’t be able to rid yourself of one of the bad contracts (Gadzuric or Simmons) in the process.

For the purposes of this post, I’ve also given up on moving Gadzuric. Since Simmons has a shorter contract with a larger salary, he will have more value than Danny G in a cap-move trade. Basically, the team acquiring Simmons would get a useless player but still have a nice-sized expiring contract to look forward to the following season.

One might say that the Bucks would be better off keeping Simmons instead of dumping him, paying a small luxury tax bill in 09/10 and reaping the cap room when his $10 million contract expires in the summer of 2010. The problem with this is that most of the cap room created by Simmons’ exit will immediately be absorbed by the six players that we do know for sure will still be on the team — $1 million to Redd and Yi, a likely $1 million to Bogut, about $500,000 apiece to the 2008 and 2009 first round picks, and $1-$3 million to the 2010 first round pick. If the Bucks are a near-luxury tax team in the summer of 2010, Simmons’ exit will likely only result in a $3-$5 million savings.

Of course you have to give something up to get something back, and that means it is time for Mo Williams to go. Williams has blossomed into a very, very nice player and efficient scorer, but I don’t think that the combination of him and Redd will ever be good enough defensively to win consistently. Mo has a reasonable, if sizable, contract and could be moved to several teams that are looking for a point guard, and when his contract is combined with Simmons’, it would equal the value of some of the large expiring contracts out there.

So here are four trade scenarios that would serve the purpose of shedding salary. I have not included how draft picks might be included in these deals, but since the Bucks are always giving up the best player in the proposal, one would assume that they should get back something:

The trades and how they affect the Bucks’ projected salary cap situation are available here.

#1: Mo Williams and Bobby Simmons to New York for Stephon Marbury and Renaldo Balkman (Bucks save $19 million in 2009/10): I hate everything about Marbury, both on and off the court, but I like his $22 million expiring contract. Obviously, in this scenario the Bucks would have to draft a point guard with the idea of turning the reins over to him after Marbury leaves. Since Marbury has gone completely nuts, the Bucks would have to bring him in and tell him: “Look, any incident and you are gone, bought out, we never see you again.� But never underestimate the power of the expiring contract to make a player bring his “A� game on the court and keep his mouth shut off of it (see Patterson, Ruben). Balkman would be an excellent addition as a small forward who can defend and rebound, and would have to be included to make up for the fact that the Knicks don’t have any draft picks to trade to make this proposal more equitable for the Bucks. No doubt, though, that the Bucks had better have a plan “B� in place for point guard if they do get Marbury – there are no guarantees he even is capable of running a team any more.

#2: Williams and Simmons to Portland for Raef LaFrentz, Travis Outlaw, and Sergio Rodriguez (Bucks save $13.5 million in 2009/10): It’s a shame that LaFrentz’s knees gave out on him, and he’s good for nothing more than $12.7 million of expiring contract. Outlaw is a talented player who inexplicably spent most of the season out of position and losing minutes to Martell Webster, despite dramatically outplaying him. He is a big, athletic, slashing small forward – exactly what the Bucks need – and has a reasonable 3 years/$12 million remaining on his contract. Rodriguez is a talented, young player who might be the most exciting passer since Jason Williams, but the attendant turnover ration has kept “Spanish Chocolate� on the bench. He’s a worthwhile risk. The Bucks would save money, but would need to find a starting point guard from another source for next season. Portland has been searching for a point guard, and were a rumored participant in the Jason Kidd sweepstakes at the trade deadline.

#3: Williams and Simmons to Seattle for Chris Wilcox, Luke Ridnour, and Donyell Marshall (Bucks save $13 million in 09/10): Seattle gets two things from this deal – they clear part of their point guard logjam by adding a definite starter in Williams and also clear their power forward logjam for Durant, Jeff Green and possibly Michael Beasley. The Bucks, who get three useless players, would need draft picks back in this scenario. But Seattle is a good team to chat with for that – they have five first round picks in the next three seasons — their own, plus Phoenix’s 2008 (lottery protected) and 2010 (unprotected) picks. Also, Seattle will be about $7 million under the salary cap this offseason, so they could theoretically take back more salary than they send out. This means that this trade could be completed without Wilcox.

#4: Williams, Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric to Seattle for Chris Wilcox, Luke Ridnour, and Donyell Marshall (Bucks save $13 million in 09/10): I only include this because it is another scenario with Seattle that most likely wouldn’t require the Bucks to get valuable picks back – not only would they lose two awful contracts, but would retain the Simmons bargaining chip, who could be paired with Villanueva in another deal. Both of these Seattle proposals still leave the Bucks in a tough spot regarding a starting point guard – Ridnour doesn’t really fill the role. There is one reason that Seattle may actually want Gadzuric instead of Simmons – Danny G’s contract has an extra year on it, so it will expire right when Kevin Durant becomes eligible for an extension. Sam Presti may actually want a longer contract in order to postpone some of his cap space (potentially $30 million in the summer of 2009) until then.

So there you have it – these are the sort of trades that the new GM is going to have to pursue in order to try and rebuild this team around Andrew Bogut. The good thing is that they would clear salary space to use their one other tradable player – Villanueva – to bring back something that they can actually use. Besides, as much as we love Mo, the facts are clear – he has turned into a terrific player who was only capable of leading this team to less than 60 wins in the past two seasons. It’s time to rebuild, and awful deals like these are where it starts.

How in the world can you blow a 17 point lead with 14 minutes remaining?

First of all, I don’t care that Mo Williams was out. Everybody has to deal with losing starters, and the Knicks were also playing without Nate Robinson (as well as the addition-by-subtraction loss of Stephon Marbury).

Isiah Thomas even threw in the towel in the third quarter — after the Bucks extended their lead to 81-64, Thomas brought in Malik Rose and Renaldo Balkman, to go with David Lee, Jamal Crawford and Fred Jones, and didn’t make a single substitution for the rest of the game! He stopped coaching for 10 minutes (basically just telling his guys; “just do whatever you want and see what happens”), not calling a timeout until the Knicks had made a game of it at 93-86.

The “Wages of Wins” believers will try to say that David Lee was the reason the Knicks came back and won the game, but Lee didn’t really do anything out of the ordinary. His 8-12 shooting and 9 rebounds (4 offensive) looks great, but that’s just typical sneaky David Lee stuff — he shoots 55% anyway, so a 7-12 game would be average for him, and in his normal 32 minute outing he averages 10 boards (3 offensive). So he had a pretty typical game for hin — just your standard, underrated scrappy stuff that has carried the Knicks a 13-36 record against teams other than the Bucks this season.

Jamal Crawford was on fire, making all sorts of crazy stuff on his way to 30 points. That can happen with Crawford — he’s an average player overall but he either looks like a world-beater or the worst player in the league on any given night. The Knicks had good Jamal on Saturday, and their record is pretty respectable when he springs for 28+ points. This is a perfect example of how using a player “because he’s a good defender” is stupid. Crawford was making everything, and there really wasn’t much Ivey could do (within the rules, anyway) to stop him. Guys like Crawford will get hot sometimes and that’s life. So Ivey couldn’t do anything to stop Crawford early, and by shooting 2-9 and scoring 4 points, Ivey didn’t help out offensively as well. So Crawford isn’t really the reason the Knicks won the game — he helped, but even with him putting up big numbers this game was winnable.

No, it comes down to coaching. Larry Krystkowiak, I have a few questions for you. Specifically:

When you have a 17 point lead, why would you wait until the Knicks have run off 15 unanswered points before calling a timeout? I can see the logic that Krystkowiak wanted to let the quarter run out and then things got out of hand, but this is the second time this season that the Bucks have blown a big 3rd quarter lead to the Knicks. After they got two or three consecutive baskets, why would you not call timeout to break the Knicks’ rhythm and remind the guys that the Bucks have been in this situation against New York before?

How does Charlie Villanueva get one shot in the fourth quarter? He shot 10-22 for the game and didn’t see the ball in seven minutes of work in the fourth. He shot 6-12 and grabbed 6 rebounds in the third quarter. Is anyone calling plays here? Did anyone realize that the Knicks went small, were using a 6′7″ and 6′9″ frontcourt, and Isiah wasn’t bothering with substitutes?

How does Bogut get two shots in the fourth quarter? He made one and then got called for his sixth foul on the second. Once again, he was being guarded by 6′7 Malik Rose.

Why would you not go big with Gadzuric in the fourth quarter? Krytkowiak used Gadzuric at power forward a little against Dallas and it worked quite well. The Knicks were charging back into the game with their small lineup so why wouldn’t you try to force the Knicks out of it? Get Ivey out of the game, let Bell play point guard, and move Villanueva to small forward so that Redd will be guarded by Crawford instead of Balkman. Then Gadzuric’s athleticism can at least try to match Lee’s, Villanueva has a big height advantage over Balkman, and Redd gets to pick on the worst defender in the league.

Why in the world was Michael Ruffin in the game on the final posession? Michael Ruffin is the WORST OFFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA! In a nine year career he has averaged 4.2 points per 36 minutes. He is a nice enough player, and his strengths in other areas makes up for his lack of scoring. But you cannot have him in the game in a situation where you have to get a basket.

I’m no NBA coach, but I know for certain that if I was in Isiah Thomas’ shoes drawing up my defense for the final play I’m doubling Redd hard with Ruffin’s man (Lee or Rose) and hoping to force the ball into Ruffin or Ivey’s (2-9 shooting) hands. Wouldn’t you know that’s exactly what Isiah did — when the Bucks first ran their inbounds play, Redd was doubled as soon as he caught the inbounds pass and fouled (the Knicks had a foul to give). As Redd was fouled, he passed the ball to Ivey, who would have had an open 20-footer for the win (which would have been option #2 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Instead, the Knicks denied Redd the ball on the second try, leaving Bell with multiple defenders running at him and no choice but to dump it off to an open Ruffin (#1 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Incredibly, the Knicks were able to double team two guys on the final play, because the Bucks were using two players (Ivey and Ruffin) that Isiah didn’t mind being open.

You needed a shot from a decent scorer. Why wasn’t Yi in for Ruffin? If it was me, I’d have had Simmons inbounding instead of Ivey, but that’s nitpicking — it’s not like Simmons was any good last night, either. But Michael Ruffin? Michael Ruffin. In a situation where he might take the last shot. Michael Ruffin. He’s 6′8. He’s taken 19 shots this season. When you have a 7-foot shooter on your bench. Really. Michael Ruffin.

Well, anyhow, another day another loss. This was on the list of “games the Bucks need to win if they are going to make the playoffs”, so one more bad loss and they need to start beating good teams to make up ground. The door is closing. If they lose Monday to the Clippers, then it will slam shut.

The Knicks have lost 8 straight. They are coming into the Bradley Center on the second game of a back-to-back. They are 4-19 on the road. They are awful.

So why am I worried?

Is it because the Knicks always seem to play the Bucks fairly tough? Is it because the Bucks loss at New York in November was the game that led us all to say, “Umm, Maybe these Bucks aren’t that great after all?”

No, I think that the thing that has me worried is the fact that this is a must win game for the Bucks, and the Knicks can cause a bunch of tough matchups with their athleticism.

Also, the Knicks haven’t been playing all that badly in this losing streak. It coincided with a 5 game west coast trip, and in addition to an OT loss to San Antonio the streak includes losses by 1, 2 and 3 points.

Meanwhile, the Bucks concluded a pretty successful 1-1 road trip with a competetive loss in Dallas. Hey, after how often this team has gotten blown out, just making a game of it with so many players out was impressive.

You know what I really liked to see in the Dallas game? Apparently Larry Krystkowiak has been reading The Bratwurst and is taking my advice (well, okay, so I know that isn’t true) by using Dan Gadzuric at power forward and playing him alongside Andrew Bogut. The results were solid — 4 points, 4 rebounds and no turnovers in 16 minutes. It’s a great idea — get Danny G on the floor where his rebounding can make a difference, but have Bogut out there too so that Gadzuric gets no touches and his offensive ineptness isn’t a problem.

Another positive note is that Michael Redd is returning against New York, and I believe that the combination of a couple of weeks of rest and a chance to face Jamal Crawford’s interpretation of “defense” will lead to a big night for number 22.

I just hope it results in a win. Why am I so worried?

Last night the Knicks tried their hardest to set basketball back a few years. The team has clearly pretty much given up on themselves and their coach, and needed a last-second, 37 foot 3 pointer to reach 59 points and avoid setting a team records for the lowest scoring output in a game. It was so bad that Boston had pulled Garnett, Pierce and Allen by the beginning of the 4th quarter, and the Knicks still got ouscored in the 4th by an 22-18 margin.

They didin’t play any offense, shooting 30%; or defense considering they forced a whopping six Celtic turnovers. At one point the Celtics had 20 assists and zero turnovers.

So after that display, what do the Bucks have to worry about?

I’m really afraid of a sort of “a wounded dog comes out fighting” thing tonight.

The problem is that the Knicks’ collection of talent dovetails right into the Bucks’ weaknesses. Specifically, Zach Randolph and David Lee are the sort of power forwards that give the Bucks fits. While Randolph will probably be gunning for his own stats, you never know when he will gun his way to a 35 point night. David Lee does all the “dirty work” plays that keeps teams in games. Both of these guys will be tough covers for Yi.

The other key is that Andrew Bogut has to stay out of foul trouble. If Eddy Curry gets that ball in the post, then let him score. For all their weaknesses, the Knicks are actually a pretty good rebounding team and in order to keep guys like Lee and Balkman from cleaning up on the glass, the Bucks need to have Bogut in there.

The other matchups tonight:

Mo Williams vs. Stephon Marbury: Marbury’s game — and possibly his sanity — have seriously slipped in the last couple or years. He has lost a step and some of his court vision, and with his personal conflict with Isiah Thomas at the forefront he a pretty much given up on running their offense as well. He has also stopped trying on defense. All Mo needs to do to stop Marbury is sag off of him and keep him out of the lane.

Michael Redd vs. Jamal Crawford: I think the “Craford as budding superstar” can finally stop now. He hasn’t improved at all in 6 years now, and has settled into a reputation as an incredibly streaky player who either looks like a hall-of-famer or 12th man. It all averages out to an incredibly average player, albeit one who is way too thin to do anything against the new, well-rounded Redd. When matched up against Crawford, Redd should be able to get into the lane and to the foul line whenever he wants.

Desmond Mason/Bobby Simmons vs. Quentin Richardson: Knicks fans are blaming Richardson for the Boston loss, something about Richardson making some remarks about the Celtics not being very good beyond their big 3. Blaming a 45 point loss on one guy? Talk about struggling to find a scapegoat. Simmons vs. Richardson matchups are always fun, since they were high school friends and teammates at DePaul and with the Clippers. Richardson has chronic back problems and was never that great an athlete to begin with, so he’s become little more than a 3-point gunner and a pretty good, instinctive rebounder. Keep him off the boards and he’s nothing to worry about.

Andrew Bogut vs. Eddy Curry: A solid all-around game vs. one dominant skill. Curry is lazy, overweight, slow, and a beast within 2 feet of the basket. Bogut has to stay out of foul trouble against him, because other than scoring Curry offers so little that the Bucks are probably better off without him. I just love how Curry is too slow to get back on defense and yet routinely beats his man downcourt on offense. I don’t care how many points Curry scores, he still doesn’t scare me at all.

Yi Jianlian vs. Zach Randolph: Randolph is way too physical for Yi to stop him offensively, and way too lazy to chase Yi around the perimeter. It’s no surprise to me at all that the Curry/Randolph frontcourt hasn’t worked out and that both of their numbers are down. This matchup concerns me the most of all, because if Randolph is on his game — hitting jumers and throwing his body around — and Yi can’t handle him, Charlie V doesn’t really offer a much different look to try and stop him. The good thing, though, is that if Randolph is playing well then it keeps the Knicks best player — the pesky David Lee — off of the floor.

The bottom line: the Bucks really should win this game handily, and send Isiah Thomas off the home floor to yet another chorus of boos. The Knicks have quit on their coach, so the only thing that can win this game for them is a bunch of great individual efforts.

So this game is right there for the Bucks to take. Hopefully they grab the opportunity and get their second blowout win of the year.

After enjoying my Saturday afternoon by watching the Bulls and Knicks trip all over each other, I started thinking of a few of the things I’ve noticed in the league so far:

Why is Dallas on fire? Avery Johnson has changed the starting lineup for the Mavs this season, and it is paying dividends already. He’s gone “defense”, starting DeSagna Diop and Brandon Bass along with Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. The result has been very interesting — by giving significant minutes to two defensive-minded players (Bass is averaging 22 mpg and Diop 28) it has essentially made the offensive workload easier for the other starters by reducing some of the defensive responsibilities they have. It helps that Jason Terry has responded by playing spectacular ball, shooting 53% to start the season. Nowitzki, Howard, Terry and Harris are all posting .95+ IPM’s, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team with 4 players putting up numbers like that. Lucky the Bucks catch Dallas in the second game of a back-to-back, because that’s how you want to face the best teams.

What’s wrong with the Bulls? They are horrible right now. Just awful. I mean, if you lose to the Knicks then something just isn’t right. I don’t buy into the idea that the Kobe story is bugging the team, but the whole Deng/Gordon contract thing might be. More importantly, though, is that the Bulls frontcourt isn’t pulling its weight. Maybe it’s the ankle injury from the preseason, but Ben Wallace isn’t staying on the court long enough (down to 28 mpg) or rebounding well at all (#81 in the league, down from #26). But I think the real problem is that the miss PJ Brown more than people realize. Tyrus Thomas is a nice enough player, but he isn’t offensively skilled enough that you can run an offense through him. Since they don’t have any penetrators, they simply can’t draw any fouls, and their offense has regressed into a helter-skelter “fire it around the perimeter and throw up the first uncontested shot” instead of a patient series of entry passes and kick-outs. At least Brown could take a shot in the paint once in a while and keep defenders somewhat honest. The Bulls have started slowly each of the last 3 seasons, but this season looks like a real problem — you can’t shoot better as a team if there aren’t any good shots to take.

Is Seattle mis-handling Kevin Durant? I don’t really understand the logic of using Durant at shooting guard. I get it that he isn’t physically ready to guard 260-pound power forwards, but why would the Sonics expect him to be able to stay in front of other shooting guards on the defensive end? Using him at the “2″ pulls him away from the basket, and has just turned him into a high-volume, low-percentage jump shooter. His rebounding numbers are awful, and he’s not getting to the basket at all. Wouldn’t the learning experince of this season be better if he is actually playing the same position that he will in the future> Maybe his numbers this season would be a little worse if he was playing small forward, but in the long term, I think that playing him at shooting guard right now is a waste.

Oh, and I’d say it’s pretty clear that the Sonics are planning on leaving town, since they didn’t take Yi over Jeff Green at #5. It’s not like Ichiro hasn’t worked out okay for the Mariners.

Now let’s see what the Bucks can do against the Mavs!

After 2 years of questions such as, “if you win a division at under .500, are you still eligible for the lottery?”, the Atlantic got all shook up the day that KG arrived. It went from a division most notable for what a colossal screwup most of the teams were to the home of the most interesting story in the Eastern Conference: What will happen in Boston?

1: Boston: What can I really say about the Celtics that hasn’t been written already? They made the biggest, most visible moves in the offseason, transforming themselves into a powerhouse with a 3-4 year window to gun for a title. But the trade came at a cost – the team has almost no bench whatsoever and should injuries short-circuit them then all they will have to show for it will be no draft pick and a $76 million payroll.

Most of the “What if one of the big 3 gets hurt� questions center around Ray Allen, as he is the oldest member of the Garnett/Pierce/Alen triumvirate, and has already had injury problems (including offseason surgery on both of his ankles). Allen is also at an age where most big shooting guards just mystifyingly “lose it� (remember when Mitch Richmond went to Washington?), but he has always depended less on his athleticism and more on his sweet jumper, which won’t desert him. Obviously, if Garnett gets hurt then this team is sunk, but the same can be said for most title contenders about their best player.

After putting together the Big 3, Boston had solid pieces left to fill out their starting 5 (serviceable Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, a first round revelation who provides excellent defense). However, the rest of their roster is a mess – partially because they didn’t have any money to spend to make it better, but part because they made some big mistakes. First of all, they used the midlevel exception on James Posey and Eddie House. House is a decent, if one-dimensional, player who has one of the highest shots-per-minute rates in NBA history. But why not go after Charlie Bell, instead? I know the Bucks would probably have matched an offer to Bell, but his ability to score would make him a perfect counterpart at point guard to Rondo, and his defense would fill in well behind Allen. Posey is terrible – he has gotten worse and worse in the last couple of years, and was even suspended by the Heat last year for not being in shape. So why not sign Ruben Patterson instead? Nobody wanted Patterson, and he wound up signing with the Clippers. Their other signings, Dahntay Jones and Scot Pollard were pretty awful as well, but the C’s only had the minimum available to get them.

I’m going to assume that the Big 3 stays relatively healthy, and that should propel this team pretty deep into the playoffs. They do have the schedule advantage of being in a weak division, so have a good shot at the #1 seed. I think that in the end the Bulls’ youth and depth will overwhelm the Boston star power, but it should be a very exciting fight. The Celtics win 57 and cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals.

2: Toronto: Funny roster. Besides Chris Bosh, the Raptors don’t have a single player who makes you say; “Oh yeah, he’s good.� But they have about 10 guys who make you say, “You know, he’s not bad.� While they won an extremely weak division last year, this team is good enough that it wasn’t a fluke.

Bryan Coangelo has completely remade the roster in the past season, and was most lauded for his acquisition of TJ Ford as the key to the Raptors’ rise. I’m not so sure that was truly his best move, though – as I wrote in this post, Ford wasn’t so much better last season as he had been with the Bucks except that his assist rate went way up – remarkably coinciding with him playing with better finishers than the Bucks had. No, it was the same TJ, just in a much better offensive system for his game.

The real genius of Coangelo is what he did with the roster beyond Bosh and Ford – every single player is a pretty nice pickup (except for Kris Humphries). Anthony Parker and Jorge Garbajosa were terrific European imports, and Jose Calderon has Toronto fans calling for TJ to be benched. I really liked the acquisitions of Juan Dixon and especially Carlos Delfino, and Radoslav Nesterovic even chipped in with a solid year. Jason Kapono got a ridiculous contract that they will regret in 4 years, but he should be pretty valuable next season.

One difficulty for this team will be trying to figure out what to do with Andrea Bargnani. While his sweet shot needs to be on the floor, trying to figure out where is a problem – it’s kind of like the same issue they had with Charlie Villanueva. Obviously he can’t play power forward with Bosh cemented there. His shooting is plenty good to play the 3, but his size/speed combination leads to a lot of defensive problems there. He is big enough to play center, and would create offensive mismatches there, but he cannot rebound at all. Seriously – he only got 6.3 rebounds per 40 minutes last season. I always complain about the Bucks’ lack of rebounding, but their entire frontcourt – Bogut, Villanueva, Gadzuric, and Voskhul – all averaged between 9.5 and 11 rebounds per 40 last year. Bargnani at center will make the coaching job much more difficult. One interesting thing to look at is Bargnani’s 82games.com page – when he played power forward his PER was equal to that of his counterpart but when he moved to small forward or center, this opponent went to town on him. This all probably means more minutes in the middle for Bosh than the team would really prefer.

But the Bargnani question is a minor one, and the Raptors will be just fine this season. They should be back in the playoffs, with a minor improvement on last years’ record. I’m looking for 47 wins.

3: New Jersey: When you have a hall-of-fame point guard, your team can only get so bad. Last season they suffered through the loss of Nenad Kristic, and survived using a patchwork frontcourt featuring guys like the immortal (sarcasm) Mikki Moore and the immortal (not sarcasm) Cliff Robinson. Richard Jefferson had an injury plagued year, and was awful when he wasn’t hurt. Lawrence Frank wouldn’t let things get too bad, though, and Vince Carter and Jason Kidd carried the load. Eventually this roster isn’t going to be able to get it done any more, and I think that decline starts now.

The aging of the roster can be seen in the decline of the team’s defense. People seem to think that with Kidd-Carter-Jefferson that the Nets are a run-and-gun bunch, but they actually have been one of the slowest paced, defensive-oriented teams around. That started to change last year as they were pretty much average in both offense and defense (I had them as the #14 offense and #18 defense). No doubt part of this was because of the frontcourt injuries, but some of it may be due to a general slowing down of the rest of the team’s talent base.
The Nets get Kristic back, which will help them on both ends of the floor, but nevertheless they spent the offseason trying to upgrade their big men. Futilely, I might add. After years of using no-offense, tough defense Jason Collins in the middle they decided to back him up with Jamaal Magloire, who is an upgrade in no way except rebounding. Then they drafted Boston College center Sean Williams, already a well-known head case who finished his college career by getting kicked off the team. Why take a risk on a guy like that?

The Nets find themselves at a kind of lousy crossroads. Not good enough to make much noise in the postseason, too much talent to get bad enough to go young and play for the draft. I think they slump to 38 wins and fall out of the playoffs, which would probably unfairly cost Lawrence Frank his job.

4: New York: I just love this team.

Once again, the highest payroll in the NBA couldn’t result in any more than another lottery pick for the Bulls. Isiah Thomas’ plan for rebuilding the Knicks with expensive superstars has only resulted in a roster filled with expensive players. He even wussed out on his theory about accumulating expiring contracts as trade bait, waiting until Jalen Rose and Anfernee Hardaway were in the final seasons of their contracts and buying them out instead of trying to trade them. Glass-half-full Knicks fans trumpeted Eddy Curry’s “break out� season as one bright spot, but actually Curry did nothing different than in previous years other than stay on the court longer – he scored at the same rate as before but played 7 more minutes per game than his career average. He shot a career high percentage from the field (but a career low from the line) and contributed his usual lousy rebounding, mind-bogglingly weak passing, and nonexistent defense. He played 35% more minutes per game than the season before and scored 43% more points per game. Not exactly an amazing jump in his production.

To Isiah’s credit, he has drafted a pretty good frontcourt to surround Curry – David Lee and Renaldo Balkman are high energy, dirty work players who are spectacular rebounders and, in the case of Balkman, a shockingly good defender. Lee and Balkman were a large factor in the Knicks leading the league in rebounding – strong praise, especially considering how weak a rebounder Curry is. The rest of the lineup has problems, particularly with the decline of Stephon Marbury. In addition to his game slipping, Marbury seems to be descending into some sort of delusional egomania (last year’s “The way how this world is right now, we need more people like me� quote, saying that he would like to finish his career in Italy, and his bizarre series of television interviews this offseason).
So of course the Knicks added Zach Randolph, an acquisition which I cast my doubts upon earlier this season. I think that Curry paired with Randolph will make for such a poor defensive unit that they will have a hard time staying on the court and that there wont be enough shots to go around to keep either of them happy.

The circus continues in Madison Square Garden, as the front office mayhem continues to make as many headlines as the players. I think that James Dolan has an ulterior motive at work in the way he has run this team, and I will write a longer post about it later this week (hint: on Thursday, Cablevision shareholders will vote on the Dolan family’s buyout bid to take the company private). But I think that the overall talent level of this team is debatable, and the distractions far too many to overcome. This team will not be any better than it was last year, even with Zach Randolph. They win 35.

5: Philadelphia: Normally when you trade away a superstar you get screwed in the deal. The Sixers, however, did pretty well on the Iverson trade. Not for the quality of players they got back, but for the roster flexibility they get next season. As for what that means for this year, though … well, it will be a long season in Philly.

Billy King’s reign of error has one more season in luxury tax land, but after this season they will drop well below the salary cap as Chris Webber, Aaron McKie and Kevin Ollie’s contracts finally expire. What that does mean, however, is that Philadelphia will probably just cruise along without making much noise this season, just waiting until after the season to remake the roster.

After Iverson left, Andre Iguodala was a revelation in more ways than one – he showed off a much more varied offensive game than people knew he had, and it became clear that you can only go so far with Andre Iguodala leading the way. Samuel Dalembert has the center position locked up and Andre Miller provides a steady hand at point guard. The forward positions are in a state of flux. Thaddeus Young will probably get the nod at small forward (and has a chance to be a really good player in a couple of years) and power forward is pretty much an open competition between Shavlik Randolph, Reggie Evans and draftees Jason Smith and Herbert Hill.

Well, a $72 million roster doesn’t get you much these days, does it. The Sixers have a long road ahead of them. To their credit, they didn’t fold last season after the Iverson trade, and hopefully they will keep fighting this year, knowing that the roster should get a big influx of talent this offseason. However, the roster has way too many holes and this season they will struggle to win 30 games. If they are serious about rebuilding, though, hopefully it starts with getting a new GM.

Well, while I was writing that headline I realized that I already used that “The Jerk” reference before this summer, but I don’t care — I love that movie. And I will use that reference until cat juggling is eradicated forever.

ESPN’s John Hollinger has published his team forecasts for the upcoming season, and they are always very interesting reads. He’s not too positive about the Bucks, but he is realistic.

If you are not familiar with Hollinger, he is a statistics-centric writer who developed PER as a player measurement tool. He is often criticized for being too stats-centric, but that is an unfair assessment — he gets a bad rap because he is prone to (1) making strong comments that look kind of idiotic when he is wrong (after Eddy Curry was traded to the Knicks he claimed that Michael Sweetney was a better player) and (2) using so many numbers that editing mistakes show up way too often (in his Curry vs. Sweetney argument he was pointing out that Sweetney had a higher FG% than Curry the season before, but the accompanying graphic said otherwise). But Hollinger actually has a very strong basketball mind, uses his statistics to back up his observations (rather than the other way around, as is sometimes claimed), and is a very engaging writer.

He is already on record as not being very enthused with Yi’s prospects (he is convinced that he is older than advertised, too soft to become a solid player, and simply ran up good stats in a vastly weak Chinese league), so that is one thing that tempers his enthusiasm for the Bucks’ prospects this season. He also bases most of his analysis, though, on last seasons’ incredibly weak performance while forgetting that much of the statistical collapse was attributable to the injuries and the fact that the Bucks weren’t trying very hard at the end of the season.

He has plenty of interesting things to say about the Bucks’ rebounding difficulties, and while his overall analysis is not terribly upbeat, he makes some very valid points about the team.

If you want to check his previews out, you had better do so soon — most of his writing falls under the ESPN Insider banner, and I believe these previews are only available to everyone for a limited time.

It’s Thursday and that means it’s time for “NBA At A Glance” on the Fresh Coast Sports Network, covering the comings and goings of the NBA.

• Isiah Thomas is getting lit up, but it’s in court instead of on the court.  I would imagine the Knicks are going to feel the hurt next year when it comes to corporate sponsorships.  Stephon Marbury is in the mix too, with an intern.
• Now that easy Yi is a Buck, the Charlie Bell saga is hitting full swing.  Will he stay or will he go?
• Greg Oden is going to miss the entire season.
• Former Cavaliers owner Ted Stepien has passed away at 82.
• The Bucks signed second round pick Ramon Sessions.
• Allan Houston looks to be back as a New Jersey Net.
• Devin Harris got a huge $43 million extension from Mark Cuban.