The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Is that they are boring.

And I mean that in a good way.

Last year I had so much to write about. The team was such a colossal mess that it was really fun to come up with all sorts of things. The coaching was awful. The team had some of the worst on-court chemistry imaginable. Larry Harris had collected some of the worst contracts imaginable. It was a complete train wreck. It was painful to watch. And so much fun to write about.

This year, it’s a lot harder.

Some of that is me. Last year I had one child and was a stay-at-home dad. This year I have two children and a job as well. So I don’t have as much time to think about interesting things to say, but there isn’t that much going on to complain about, make fun of, or point out as unexpected.

This year the Bucks have won every game they should have and lost every one they should have. Now, compared to last year that is a huge improvement. I’m sure that with Larry Krystkowiak at the helm they would have found a way to lose on November 5th against Washington and on Saturday night at Charlotte, and probably would have managed to lose to the 7-man Knick crew on Friday (considering that the Bucks blew 17-point third quarter leads to the Knicks twice last year).

To build their 7-8 record they have beaten 6 bad teams and it is debatable just how good San Antonio is right now without Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker (according to me and to IPM: not good at all). They have lost to 7 good teams, plus Chicago on opening night, which was a justifiable loss in my book. Going 1-3 in the at Boston – Phoenix – at Cleveland – San Antonio stretch? Justifiable. Looking awful in Denver and Utah without Redd or Villanueva? No big deal — those two high-altitude teams have the biggest home court advantage in the league.

This team is a heck of a lot better this year than it was last year. The chemistry is better, the defense is better, the coaching is better, the expectations are more realistic. You know, once they get Michael Redd back then they will add the scoring they have been lacking. Maybe this team will be capable of playing .500 ball all year with one hot 10-of-13 win streak in there, and that will propel them to 47 wins and a 6 seed. It’s nice to know that you can go to the Bradley Center and know that you will either see the Bucks play a competitive game against a good team or soundly beat a bad one.

But they sure aren’t as much fun to write about.

Meanwhile, I’ve updated my IPM rankings and Team Power Rankings, which are available at these links and always on the links on the right hand side of the page.

A couple of other random, general NBA thoughts:

I’m not surprised the Thunder fired PJ Carliesimo on Saturday. I watched most of the Friday night Thunder-Hornets game and thought that the Thunder looked like the worst NBA team I have ever seen. There was no semblance of a team concept on either end of the floor. I don’t think there was a single interior defensive rotation all night — I couldn’t believe how many open layups and uncontested follow up baskets the Hornets got. Meanwhile, I think I saw Kevin Durant touch the ball no more than three times in the entire time I watched. You can justify being awful if the cornerstone of your franchise is active in the game, but he was just floating along out there. Add to that the game was on ESPN and was against the Hornets — a team that many people in Oklahoma City most likely identify with more closely than the Thunder given the way the team wound up in OKC — and I can imagine that the Thunder owners were just embarrassed by Friday night’s performance. They suck, and with all of the shenanigans involved in stealing the team from Seattle, I’m glad.

Greg Oden is dominant. Yes, that’s right. After his career got off to a problematic start with the sprained foot in his first game, Oden has managed to average a 0.927 IPM in 19.5 minutes per game. Basically, his per-minute performance has him as the 8th best center in the game and within shouting distance of 5th best. As expected, Oden has been a rebounding machine (over 15 per 40 minutes) and shot-blocking threat (about 4 per 40 minutes) while he has shot 51% from the floor and has not turned it over much (zero turnovers in three of the five games where he has played over 16 minutes). Basically, he hasn’t hurt his team on offense (taking care of the ball and not shooting poorly) while stepping on to the floor as one of the best per-minute rebounders in the league. He might not start all season because of his health issues, but he could be the most important player in the league who averages less than 30 minutes per game this year.

The Knicks appear to know what they are doing (shudder). It hurts me to say it, but the Knicks made two great trades last week. Not only did they dump enough long-term salary to make a run at LeBron James in two years, but I think they actually improved themselves right now. Jamal Crawford may have been their leading scorer, but his game is so full of holes it’s pathetic. He scores and that’s it — no defense, no conscience about taking bad shots, nothing that helps you win. I once read a quote from Crawford where he said he always played in the Rucker Park tournament in the summer because “that’s where you work on your game.” That’s Crawford’s idea of how to play basketball? Streetball?

Meanwhile, the subtraction of black-hole Zach Randolph should help as well. Randolph puts up great scoring and rebounding numbers but is one of the laziest defenders around and screws up any sort of offensive flow with his need to get the ball in “his” spots on the floor to be effective.

The Knicks won’t be able to get a rebound any longer but by adding Al Harrington and Cuttino Mobely will actually be able to run Mike D’Antoni’s offense properly.

Now, will they actually sign LeBron James in two years … you know, I don’t think so. The whole LeBron pursuit thing has been so played up and will only be a bigger and bigger story over the next two years. I can’t help but feel that LeBron will risk so much bad press should he switch teams (and assuming that Cleveland remains highly competitive) that his marketing people will tell him that his image as an endorser could suffer. So much is made of how much “more money” he can make playing in New York, but if the consumer’s image of him becomes that of a disloyal, spotlight-hungry slut the potential losses would be huge. I’m not saying that Nike would drop him, but there is nothing to say that the endorsement rewards would be as large as one might think. Backlashes can be funny things.

The play by play went like this:

12:00 – Start of the first quarter
11:49- Andrew Bogut fouled by David Lee

That’s all she wrote. Game over. I even said so at the time.

With David Lee picking up a foul on the first possession of the game then he had to dial his hustle/energy game back to stay out of foul trouble. Then, when he picked up foul #2 six minutes later then he was on the bench for the rest of the quarter.

Mike D’Antoni fell into my favorite coaching blunder of all time at that point — He sat Lee until the end of the quarter and then yanked him five minutes into the second when Lee picked up his third foul. D’Antoni played the matchups in the second half, using Lee for a total of 9 minutes, generally only keeping him on the floor when Charlie V was also in the game.

The result for Lee, a player who had averaged 14.5 points, 11 boards and 2 steals in the Knicks first two games? 3 points, 2 boards and 2 turnovers in 19 minutes. And only three fouls.

So by yanking Lee with two fouls, D’Antoni moved his best player to the bench — his only player who makes a living through hustle and rebounding; his only player who makes his living doing the things that help teams win basketball games. This meant that not only was he not on the floor helping his team, but he was also successfully staying out of foul trouble. He finished with 3 fouls! He wasn’t even in foul trouble at the end of the game!

When D’Antoni yanked Lee in the second quarter after picking up his third foul the Knicks had just concluded a 10-4 run that saw them take their final lead of the night at 37-35. As soon as Lee checked out the Bucks went on a 12-3 run to essentially salt the game away (the Bucks made no substitutions immediately before or during the run, except to take out Bell and insert Redd at the end of it). If D’Antoni had left Lee in he might have possibly played out the half without picking up any more fouls and potentially helped keep his team in the game.

Even if he had picked up 1 or even two more fouls in the half, he still would have been available for at least some second half duty. And then the second half might have actually been a game instead of about 22 minutes of garbage time. Lee only played 19 minutes last night. If he had been left in the game with three fouls after playing 10 minutes is it really likely that he would foul out in less than 19 minutes? Instead, D’Antoni did the Bucks a favor my keeping his own player off of the offensive glass — which was probably the Bucks’ #1 priority in last nights game plan.

Of course, the whole point is moot because of what the Bucks did at the start of the second half — roaring out of the gate with a 12-0 run. Good coaching! Good halftime adjustments! It feels so good to say that the team seems to be hitting the floor ready to roll in the third quarter this season!

Now, hopefully Michael Redd’s sprained ankle gets better very quickly.

A roundup of the Atlantic Division blogger previews from around the blogosphere.  Brett’s look at the entire division was posted earlier.

Boston Celtics
Jeff Clark: CelticsBlog.com
Jim Weeks: Green Bandwagon
FLCeltsFan: LOY’s Place
John Karalis: Red’s Army
Dustin Chapman: Celtics 24/7

New Jersey Nets
Dennis Velasco: About Basketball

New York Knicks
Joey: Straight Bangin’
Seth Rosenthal: Posting and Toasting

Philadelphia 76ers
Dannie & Pete: Recliner GM
Jon Burkett: Passion and Pride

Toronto Raptors
Franchise: RaptorsHQ.com
Ryan McNeill: Hoops Addict
Cuzzy: Cuzoogle

Sure, I know training camp hasn’t even started yet. But you know what? It’s still time to bring forth my thumbnail preview of the 08/09 season. I kind of liked how I projected the Bucks’ record a few posts ago, so I did it for the rest of the league. Today, I’m going to cover the Atlantic Division.

1 – Boston: After ending a career of frustration for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, one has to wonder just how aggressively they will go at it this season. It’s only natural – you bust your ass to reach the top of the mountain and realize that, hey, it’s the NBA, we could have won 20 fewer games and still made the playoffs. Shaquille O’Neal’s teams were well known for using the regular season as an extended playoff warm-up, and a little of that attitude will cause the same thing for the Celtics this year. However, barring injury, they will still be really, really good.

Last year: won 66 games.

This year:
-4 wins from a general “I got mine”-itis.
-2 wins from age-related declines for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.
-3 wins from Ray Allen’s decline. Nobody seemed to notice last season that Allen had really dropped off last season, and at his age he is not going to get any better. Eddie House is Allen’s only backup.
+2 wins from continued improvement from Rajon Rondo.
-2 wins from the loss of James Posey. The Celtics bench still has Big Baby and Leon Powe, but after losing the valuable Posey (who played big minutes when Allen had to sit) they took flyers on Patrick O‘Bryant and Darius Miles. Yuck.

Celtics final record in 08/09: 57-25.

2 – Philadelphia: According to my numbers last year, the Sixers were for real last season, and actually underachieved a little. They didn’t lose anyone and added Elton Brand, a perfect complement for their roster. They need shooting, but have plenty of athleticism to make up for it.

Last year: won 40 games.

This year:
+6 wins from the addition of Elton Brand.
+2 wins from budding stud Thaddeus Young.
-1 win for signing Royal Ivey.
+1 win because they underachieved last year.

Sixers’ final record this year: 48-34.

3 – Toronto: While TJ Ford blossomed with the Raptors, Jose Calderon will make them forget about him in a hurry. Overall I like the Ford-O’Neal trade for the Raptors, with the assumption that O’Neal will be able to play at least 70 games and will be healthy for the playoffs. Other than that the Raptors pretty much stood pat this offseason.

Last year: won 41 games.

This year:
+5 wins from a full season of Jermaine O’Neal (and the corresponding banishment of Andrea Bargnani to the bench).
-3 wins since the odds that O’Neal wont get hurt and miss at least 20 games are about 50:1.
+1 win because the TJ Ford/Jose Calderon sideshow has finally been decided.
+3 wins because Chris Bosh is continuing to get better and better.

Raptors final record this year: 47-35.

4 – New York: Lost in all of the “Mike D’Antoni is a coaching genius” hype is this little fact: in the two seasons that D’Antoni has not had Steve Nash as his point guard, he has a 35-76 career record (0.315) which would rank as the 17th worst career record among coaches with over 100 games of experience (one spot ahead of Larry Krystkowiak, incidentally). I have my doubts about D’Antoni’s system without the unique collection of talent he had as his disposal. He simply ignores defense, so the only way the Suns were able to stop anyone was through the incredible athleticism of Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion. The Knicks roster is pretty much the worst possible collection of “talent” that D’Antoni could find for his system – slow, lazy plodders like Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry and, even worse, shot-happy chuckers like Jamal Crawford and Nate Robinson. I can just see Crawford telling D’Antoni: “You want a shot in seven seconds or less? I can get one up in three seconds, no problem!” I foresee Crawford firing up 500 pull-up three pointers with 20+ on the shot clock this season. It’s going to be ugly in NY. On the bright side, at least D’Antoni will actually try to coach the Knicks this season, unlike what Isiah Thomas did last year.

Last year: won 23 games.

+14 wins by having a coach that cares.
-8 wins from having the worst imaginable collection of talent for D’Antoni’s system.
+2 wins from the nights that Jamal Crawford is hot.
-6 wins from the nights that Jamal Crawford is ice cold – but that’s never stopped him from firing away before.

Knicks final record this year: 25-57.

5 – New Jersey: Don’t you just feel bad for everyone involved here? The organization is obviously trying to clear cap room for their 2010 run at LeBron, meaning that most of the players (everyone except for Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Sean Williams and maybe Yi Jianlian) know that they are only there as salary cap-filling bookmarks. Vince Carter is sure to either be traded or pull his “Half Man/Half Invisible” act he perfected in Toronto. Devin Harris is blossoming into an excellent player, but the Nets are going to be completely irrelevant for a couple of more years.

Last year: won 34 games.

-6 wins by not having Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, or Vince Carter (whether he is on the court or not).
+2 wins from the growth of Devin Harris.
-4 wins from “trying to develop the youngsters and/or 25 year olds masquerading as youngsters” as Lopez and Yi get minutes they don’t deserve in the name of “player development”.
-4 wins from most of the team realizing that there is absolutely no “team concept” ‘at work here that includes them, so they may as well just gun for their own stats.

Nets final record this year: 22-60.

It’s an interesting division. Boston clearly remains one of the top four teams in the conference (assuming the big three, and particularly Garnett, stays healthy) while Philadelphia and Toronto should be interesting for all the right reasons. The Knicks should remain a sideshow (but not quite the comical one they have been).

Up next: the Southeast.

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6′7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6′11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

Reality check.

In my recent post about the value of Andrew Bogut’s contract extension, I pointed out that the realities of the salary cap means that the Bucks are going to have to do something this offseason to avoid a likely luxury tax bill in the 2009/10 season, the first year of Bogut’s extension.

The failure to plan around Bogut’s extension will wind up being the biggest mistake the Larry Harris ever made. He always seemed to believe that he had a much better team than he did, and now the new GM will have to make moves to avoid the cash crunch that Harris created.

I’m not talking about the Bobby Simmons signing, but signing Gadzuric and Bell. At least Simmons was supposed to be a starter.

After drafting Bogut, Harris signed Gadzuric (who was a restricted free agent) to a six-year contract extension that exceeded the midlevel. Of course, even if a team had come to Gadzuric and offered him a near-max deal the Bucks could have afforded to let him go since they not only had Bogut but Pachulia was a restricted free agent as well. Instead, Harris signed Gadzuric to a contract that has paid him more than Bogut up to this point, when Gadzuric was signed to be a full-time backup, and lasts past the point where Bogut is eligible for an extension.

The same disastrous mistake was made with Charlie Bell. Maybe Bell had been a valuable contributor to the Bucks in 2006/07, but he was a contributor to a 25 win team! How much can he possibly be worth? Then, after Bell tried to talk his way out of Milwaukee and got a ridiculous offer from Miami, why wouldn’t the Bucks let him go in order to not pay him $3.5 million in Bogut’s extension year? I have no problem with Charlie Bell getting paid, but why should the Bucks be the ones to pay him?

Anyway, as I showed with this chart, should the salary cap keep growing at the same pace that it has averaged (5% a year) then the Bucks, should they not do anything, would find themselves at the luxury tax in the 2009/10 season with only 11 players on the roster. Assuming that the cap will expand at that rate, however, is a big if, as the economy is doing so poorly and attendance and league revenues are down this season. It is conceivable that the luxury tax in 09/10 could be closer to $67 million, while the Bucks (assuming $11 million to Bogut that year) are already on the hook for $68.

This means that the Bucks are going to have to make a move right now to ensure that a big chunk of salary will fall by the wayside next offseason. The team right now has a painful collection of good players that don’t work very well together. But it’s a fact of life that in order to get better you sometimes have to make trades that make you worse. Let me make one thing clear , these trade proposals that I am writing about now are not supposed to propel the Bucks deep into the playoffs , they are meant to be the first step in rebuilding the roster into a more compatible group of talent.

Obviously, if you want to cut salary then you could trade Michael Redd for a similar, shorter contract. I’m not looking in that direction, since you could never get anything close to fair value back, and you wouldn’t be able to rid yourself of one of the bad contracts (Gadzuric or Simmons) in the process.

For the purposes of this post, I’ve also given up on moving Gadzuric. Since Simmons has a shorter contract with a larger salary, he will have more value than Danny G in a cap-move trade. Basically, the team acquiring Simmons would get a useless player but still have a nice-sized expiring contract to look forward to the following season.

One might say that the Bucks would be better off keeping Simmons instead of dumping him, paying a small luxury tax bill in 09/10 and reaping the cap room when his $10 million contract expires in the summer of 2010. The problem with this is that most of the cap room created by Simmons’ exit will immediately be absorbed by the six players that we do know for sure will still be on the team — $1 million to Redd and Yi, a likely $1 million to Bogut, about $500,000 apiece to the 2008 and 2009 first round picks, and $1-$3 million to the 2010 first round pick. If the Bucks are a near-luxury tax team in the summer of 2010, Simmons’ exit will likely only result in a $3-$5 million savings.

Of course you have to give something up to get something back, and that means it is time for Mo Williams to go. Williams has blossomed into a very, very nice player and efficient scorer, but I don’t think that the combination of him and Redd will ever be good enough defensively to win consistently. Mo has a reasonable, if sizable, contract and could be moved to several teams that are looking for a point guard, and when his contract is combined with Simmons’, it would equal the value of some of the large expiring contracts out there.

So here are four trade scenarios that would serve the purpose of shedding salary. I have not included how draft picks might be included in these deals, but since the Bucks are always giving up the best player in the proposal, one would assume that they should get back something:

The trades and how they affect the Bucks’ projected salary cap situation are available here.

#1: Mo Williams and Bobby Simmons to New York for Stephon Marbury and Renaldo Balkman (Bucks save $19 million in 2009/10): I hate everything about Marbury, both on and off the court, but I like his $22 million expiring contract. Obviously, in this scenario the Bucks would have to draft a point guard with the idea of turning the reins over to him after Marbury leaves. Since Marbury has gone completely nuts, the Bucks would have to bring him in and tell him: “Look, any incident and you are gone, bought out, we never see you again.” But never underestimate the power of the expiring contract to make a player bring his “A” game on the court and keep his mouth shut off of it (see Patterson, Ruben). Balkman would be an excellent addition as a small forward who can defend and rebound, and would have to be included to make up for the fact that the Knicks don’t have any draft picks to trade to make this proposal more equitable for the Bucks. No doubt, though, that the Bucks had better have a plan “B” in place for point guard if they do get Marbury , there are no guarantees he even is capable of running a team any more.

#2: Williams and Simmons to Portland for Raef LaFrentz, Travis Outlaw, and Sergio Rodriguez (Bucks save $13.5 million in 2009/10): It’s a shame that LaFrentz’s knees gave out on him, and he’s good for nothing more than $12.7 million of expiring contract. Outlaw is a talented player who inexplicably spent most of the season out of position and losing minutes to Martell Webster, despite dramatically outplaying him. He is a big, athletic, slashing small forward , exactly what the Bucks need , and has a reasonable 3 years/$12 million remaining on his contract. Rodriguez is a talented, young player who might be the most exciting passer since Jason Williams, but the attendant turnover ration has kept “Spanish Chocolate” on the bench. He’s a worthwhile risk. The Bucks would save money, but would need to find a starting point guard from another source for next season. Portland has been searching for a point guard, and were a rumored participant in the Jason Kidd sweepstakes at the trade deadline.

#3: Williams and Simmons to Seattle for Chris Wilcox, Luke Ridnour, and Donyell Marshall (Bucks save $13 million in 09/10): Seattle gets two things from this deal , they clear part of their point guard logjam by adding a definite starter in Williams and also clear their power forward logjam for Durant, Jeff Green and possibly Michael Beasley. The Bucks, who get three useless players, would need draft picks back in this scenario. But Seattle is a good team to chat with for that , they have five first round picks in the next three seasons — their own, plus Phoenix’s 2008 (lottery protected) and 2010 (unprotected) picks. Also, Seattle will be about $7 million under the salary cap this offseason, so they could theoretically take back more salary than they send out. This means that this trade could be completed without Wilcox.

#4: Williams, Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric to Seattle for Chris Wilcox, Luke Ridnour, and Donyell Marshall (Bucks save $13 million in 09/10): I only include this because it is another scenario with Seattle that most likely wouldn’t require the Bucks to get valuable picks back , not only would they lose two awful contracts, but would retain the Simmons bargaining chip, who could be paired with Villanueva in another deal. Both of these Seattle proposals still leave the Bucks in a tough spot regarding a starting point guard , Ridnour doesn’t really fill the role. There is one reason that Seattle may actually want Gadzuric instead of Simmons , Danny G’s contract has an extra year on it, so it will expire right when Kevin Durant becomes eligible for an extension. Sam Presti may actually want a longer contract in order to postpone some of his cap space (potentially $30 million in the summer of 2009) until then.

So there you have it , these are the sort of trades that the new GM is going to have to pursue in order to try and rebuild this team around Andrew Bogut. The good thing is that they would clear salary space to use their one other tradable player , Villanueva , to bring back something that they can actually use. Besides, as much as we love Mo, the facts are clear , he has turned into a terrific player who was only capable of leading this team to less than 60 wins in the past two seasons. It’s time to rebuild, and awful deals like these are where it starts.

How in the world can you blow a 17 point lead with 14 minutes remaining?

First of all, I don’t care that Mo Williams was out. Everybody has to deal with losing starters, and the Knicks were also playing without Nate Robinson (as well as the addition-by-subtraction loss of Stephon Marbury).

Isiah Thomas even threw in the towel in the third quarter — after the Bucks extended their lead to 81-64, Thomas brought in Malik Rose and Renaldo Balkman, to go with David Lee, Jamal Crawford and Fred Jones, and didn’t make a single substitution for the rest of the game! He stopped coaching for 10 minutes (basically just telling his guys; “just do whatever you want and see what happens”), not calling a timeout until the Knicks had made a game of it at 93-86.

The “Wages of Wins” believers will try to say that David Lee was the reason the Knicks came back and won the game, but Lee didn’t really do anything out of the ordinary. His 8-12 shooting and 9 rebounds (4 offensive) looks great, but that’s just typical sneaky David Lee stuff — he shoots 55% anyway, so a 7-12 game would be average for him, and in his normal 32 minute outing he averages 10 boards (3 offensive). So he had a pretty typical game for hin — just your standard, underrated scrappy stuff that has carried the Knicks a 13-36 record against teams other than the Bucks this season.

Jamal Crawford was on fire, making all sorts of crazy stuff on his way to 30 points. That can happen with Crawford — he’s an average player overall but he either looks like a world-beater or the worst player in the league on any given night. The Knicks had good Jamal on Saturday, and their record is pretty respectable when he springs for 28+ points. This is a perfect example of how using a player “because he’s a good defender” is stupid. Crawford was making everything, and there really wasn’t much Ivey could do (within the rules, anyway) to stop him. Guys like Crawford will get hot sometimes and that’s life. So Ivey couldn’t do anything to stop Crawford early, and by shooting 2-9 and scoring 4 points, Ivey didn’t help out offensively as well. So Crawford isn’t really the reason the Knicks won the game — he helped, but even with him putting up big numbers this game was winnable.

No, it comes down to coaching. Larry Krystkowiak, I have a few questions for you. Specifically:

When you have a 17 point lead, why would you wait until the Knicks have run off 15 unanswered points before calling a timeout? I can see the logic that Krystkowiak wanted to let the quarter run out and then things got out of hand, but this is the second time this season that the Bucks have blown a big 3rd quarter lead to the Knicks. After they got two or three consecutive baskets, why would you not call timeout to break the Knicks’ rhythm and remind the guys that the Bucks have been in this situation against New York before?

How does Charlie Villanueva get one shot in the fourth quarter? He shot 10-22 for the game and didn’t see the ball in seven minutes of work in the fourth. He shot 6-12 and grabbed 6 rebounds in the third quarter. Is anyone calling plays here? Did anyone realize that the Knicks went small, were using a 6′7″ and 6′9″ frontcourt, and Isiah wasn’t bothering with substitutes?

How does Bogut get two shots in the fourth quarter? He made one and then got called for his sixth foul on the second. Once again, he was being guarded by 6′7 Malik Rose.

Why would you not go big with Gadzuric in the fourth quarter? Krytkowiak used Gadzuric at power forward a little against Dallas and it worked quite well. The Knicks were charging back into the game with their small lineup so why wouldn’t you try to force the Knicks out of it? Get Ivey out of the game, let Bell play point guard, and move Villanueva to small forward so that Redd will be guarded by Crawford instead of Balkman. Then Gadzuric’s athleticism can at least try to match Lee’s, Villanueva has a big height advantage over Balkman, and Redd gets to pick on the worst defender in the league.

Why in the world was Michael Ruffin in the game on the final posession? Michael Ruffin is the WORST OFFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA! In a nine year career he has averaged 4.2 points per 36 minutes. He is a nice enough player, and his strengths in other areas makes up for his lack of scoring. But you cannot have him in the game in a situation where you have to get a basket.

I’m no NBA coach, but I know for certain that if I was in Isiah Thomas’ shoes drawing up my defense for the final play I’m doubling Redd hard with Ruffin’s man (Lee or Rose) and hoping to force the ball into Ruffin or Ivey’s (2-9 shooting) hands. Wouldn’t you know that’s exactly what Isiah did — when the Bucks first ran their inbounds play, Redd was doubled as soon as he caught the inbounds pass and fouled (the Knicks had a foul to give). As Redd was fouled, he passed the ball to Ivey, who would have had an open 20-footer for the win (which would have been option #2 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Instead, the Knicks denied Redd the ball on the second try, leaving Bell with multiple defenders running at him and no choice but to dump it off to an open Ruffin (#1 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Incredibly, the Knicks were able to double team two guys on the final play, because the Bucks were using two players (Ivey and Ruffin) that Isiah didn’t mind being open.

You needed a shot from a decent scorer. Why wasn’t Yi in for Ruffin? If it was me, I’d have had Simmons inbounding instead of Ivey, but that’s nitpicking — it’s not like Simmons was any good last night, either. But Michael Ruffin? Michael Ruffin. In a situation where he might take the last shot. Michael Ruffin. He’s 6′8. He’s taken 19 shots this season. When you have a 7-foot shooter on your bench. Really. Michael Ruffin.

Well, anyhow, another day another loss. This was on the list of “games the Bucks need to win if they are going to make the playoffs”, so one more bad loss and they need to start beating good teams to make up ground. The door is closing. If they lose Monday to the Clippers, then it will slam shut.

The Knicks have lost 8 straight. They are coming into the Bradley Center on the second game of a back-to-back. They are 4-19 on the road. They are awful.

So why am I worried?

Is it because the Knicks always seem to play the Bucks fairly tough? Is it because the Bucks loss at New York in November was the game that led us all to say, “Umm, Maybe these Bucks aren’t that great after all?”

No, I think that the thing that has me worried is the fact that this is a must win game for the Bucks, and the Knicks can cause a bunch of tough matchups with their athleticism.

Also, the Knicks haven’t been playing all that badly in this losing streak. It coincided with a 5 game west coast trip, and in addition to an OT loss to San Antonio the streak includes losses by 1, 2 and 3 points.

Meanwhile, the Bucks concluded a pretty successful 1-1 road trip with a competetive loss in Dallas. Hey, after how often this team has gotten blown out, just making a game of it with so many players out was impressive.

You know what I really liked to see in the Dallas game? Apparently Larry Krystkowiak has been reading The Bratwurst and is taking my advice (well, okay, so I know that isn’t true) by using Dan Gadzuric at power forward and playing him alongside Andrew Bogut. The results were solid — 4 points, 4 rebounds and no turnovers in 16 minutes. It’s a great idea — get Danny G on the floor where his rebounding can make a difference, but have Bogut out there too so that Gadzuric gets no touches and his offensive ineptness isn’t a problem.

Another positive note is that Michael Redd is returning against New York, and I believe that the combination of a couple of weeks of rest and a chance to face Jamal Crawford’s interpretation of “defense” will lead to a big night for number 22.

I just hope it results in a win. Why am I so worried?

Last night the Knicks tried their hardest to set basketball back a few years. The team has clearly pretty much given up on themselves and their coach, and needed a last-second, 37 foot 3 pointer to reach 59 points and avoid setting a team records for the lowest scoring output in a game. It was so bad that Boston had pulled Garnett, Pierce and Allen by the beginning of the 4th quarter, and the Knicks still got ouscored in the 4th by an 22-18 margin.

They didin’t play any offense, shooting 30%; or defense considering they forced a whopping six Celtic turnovers. At one point the Celtics had 20 assists and zero turnovers.

So after that display, what do the Bucks have to worry about?

I’m really afraid of a sort of “a wounded dog comes out fighting” thing tonight.

The problem is that the Knicks’ collection of talent dovetails right into the Bucks’ weaknesses. Specifically, Zach Randolph and David Lee are the sort of power forwards that give the Bucks fits. While Randolph will probably be gunning for his own stats, you never know when he will gun his way to a 35 point night. David Lee does all the “dirty work” plays that keeps teams in games. Both of these guys will be tough covers for Yi.

The other key is that Andrew Bogut has to stay out of foul trouble. If Eddy Curry gets that ball in the post, then let him score. For all their weaknesses, the Knicks are actually a pretty good rebounding team and in order to keep guys like Lee and Balkman from cleaning up on the glass, the Bucks need to have Bogut in there.

The other matchups tonight:

Mo Williams vs. Stephon Marbury: Marbury’s game — and possibly his sanity — have seriously slipped in the last couple or years. He has lost a step and some of his court vision, and with his personal conflict with Isiah Thomas at the forefront he a pretty much given up on running their offense as well. He has also stopped trying on defense. All Mo needs to do to stop Marbury is sag off of him and keep him out of the lane.

Michael Redd vs. Jamal Crawford: I think the “Craford as budding superstar” can finally stop now. He hasn’t improved at all in 6 years now, and has settled into a reputation as an incredibly streaky player who either looks like a hall-of-famer or 12th man. It all averages out to an incredibly average player, albeit one who is way too thin to do anything against the new, well-rounded Redd. When matched up against Crawford, Redd should be able to get into the lane and to the foul line whenever he wants.

Desmond Mason/Bobby Simmons vs. Quentin Richardson: Knicks fans are blaming Richardson for the Boston loss, something about Richardson making some remarks about the Celtics not being very good beyond their big 3. Blaming a 45 point loss on one guy? Talk about struggling to find a scapegoat. Simmons vs. Richardson matchups are always fun, since they were high school friends and teammates at DePaul and with the Clippers. Richardson has chronic back problems and was never that great an athlete to begin with, so he’s become little more than a 3-point gunner and a pretty good, instinctive rebounder. Keep him off the boards and he’s nothing to worry about.

Andrew Bogut vs. Eddy Curry: A solid all-around game vs. one dominant skill. Curry is lazy, overweight, slow, and a beast within 2 feet of the basket. Bogut has to stay out of foul trouble against him, because other than scoring Curry offers so little that the Bucks are probably better off without him. I just love how Curry is too slow to get back on defense and yet routinely beats his man downcourt on offense. I don’t care how many points Curry scores, he still doesn’t scare me at all.

Yi Jianlian vs. Zach Randolph: Randolph is way too physical for Yi to stop him offensively, and way too lazy to chase Yi around the perimeter. It’s no surprise to me at all that the Curry/Randolph frontcourt hasn’t worked out and that both of their numbers are down. This matchup concerns me the most of all, because if Randolph is on his game — hitting jumers and throwing his body around — and Yi can’t handle him, Charlie V doesn’t really offer a much different look to try and stop him. The good thing, though, is that if Randolph is playing well then it keeps the Knicks best player — the pesky David Lee — off of the floor.

The bottom line: the Bucks really should win this game handily, and send Isiah Thomas off the home floor to yet another chorus of boos. The Knicks have quit on their coach, so the only thing that can win this game for them is a bunch of great individual efforts.

So this game is right there for the Bucks to take. Hopefully they grab the opportunity and get their second blowout win of the year.