The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

What if LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh formed a boy band instead of a basketball team (the minimum-salaried vets would sing backup of course)? It would probably look just like this.

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6’7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6’11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

Drew Olson at OnMilwaukee.com managed to find the clip of Andrew Bogut high-fiving the air after a made free-throw in Atlanta on Wednesday. I had watched it during the game and assumed I would never get to relive the moment, but thankfully someone caught it and put it up on YouTube and I’ll watch right after I bet online.

What does it mean? Well it’s amusing to say the least. A lot of OMC commenters went back and tried to say it was because of Bogut’s remarks about NBA players over the summer. I don’t think that’s it. We would have seen that all season long if that were the case.

What could it be? How about the idea that Charlie V and Player X (I’m not sure who the player on the other side was) had simply zoned out? Isn’t it possible that after losing twice to the Heat in a week, having to go on the road to Atlanta, and falling behind early that the players had mentally checked out?

If you watch the video closely, you can see Charlie V turn his head as Bogut makes the free throw to watch Zaza run out of the game. Possibly some sound over the speaker system snapped him back to life, but not in time to high-five Bogut.

In short, I really don’t think this is as big of a deal as everyone seems to want to make it out to be. It wasn’t a personal dig against Bogut. It simply was just a case of a losing team losing on the road resulting in players not paying attention.

Players are going to do a lot of things on auto-pilot as a season goes along, I think this was one of them that just happened to be caught on camera.

According to the New York Daily News, the Bucks (and the Knicks) have been pursuing Indiana Pacers CEO Donnie Walsh to join the front office next season.

This would be a good hire, as Walsh was the architect of the Pacers’ run of success dating back to the early 90′s, but considering that there are other teams in the mix and that he is 67 years old, I’d guess that his actually coming to Milwaukee would be a long shot. The more important story is that it signals the end for Larry Harris.

Reading between the lines, it has been pretty obvious that Harris was about done. Their failure to make any moves, the rumors about the ridiculous Zach Randolph, and Kohl’s silence about extending Harris’ contract were signals, but if they are now actively pursuing a replacement, it’s a done deal. And it’s time, too. Harris assembled this team and now it needs changes. Those changes are tough to make if you are emotionally invested in bringing the current pieces in.

I know that money talks and the Knicks can offer far more money than the Bucks can, but honestly Milwaukee would probably be a more appealing destination for Walsh.

Consider the pros and cons:

Knicks

Significantly higher salary.
Seemlingly unlimited roster budget.
Money no object for hiring coaches and assistants.
Ridiculous roster makes it impossible to make major changes until 2009/10.
Roster contains three players who would have any trade value (Lee, Balkman, Robinson).
Walsh is from New York.
Owes a future first round pick to Utah.
Horrible, insular working nvironment and culture at Madison Square Garden.
Owner is completely insane.
Highest paid player is completely insane.

Bucks:

Limited cap manuverability until 2010.
Five potential trade chips in case of a major overhaul (Redd, Williams, Bogut, Yi, Villanueva).
Location is closer to Indianapolis-based family.
Payroll limited to below luxury tax.

Money aside, the Bucks job is far more appealing. Would you honestly want to work for James Dolan? Would you really want to take on a complete organizational housecleaning at 67 years old? Wouldn’t you rather have the Bucks’ relatively inexpensive core to work with over the Knicks’ completely disjointed one?

Anyway, I’m sure that the Knicks checkbook will carry the day in this battle, while the Pacers’ current VP of Basketball Operations, David Morway, might be the Bucks’ consolation prize as their next GM.

Meanwhile, I attended my first Bucks game in a couple of weeks last night against the Heat, and I came away thoroughly perplexed.

It cannot be overstated just how bad the Heat are right now. They dressed nine players. They are missing their three best projected opening night starters (Wade and Haslem out, Shaq gone). Marion was a nonfactor, playing 28 minutes and with the Bucks outscoring the Heat by 10 with him in. They were so starved for wins that their bench was acting like it was game seven of the finals. Jason Williams actually looked interested!

Clearly the Bucks should have won this game going away, but that isn’t the only thing that has me confused. The season is now lost, so at this point shouldn’t learning a little about your team be a goal, instead of tossing out the same old lineups that haven’t worked all season?

Instead, after the game, Krystkowiak talked to the Journal Sentinel and vaguely blamed his players.

“We’ve talked about just about everything,” (Krystkowiak) said. “I’m not afraid to repeat some stuff but it’s frustrating. We need to be self-starters. We’ll look at the plan . . . what broke down as far as the tactical approach. . . . We’ll see as coaches if we can fix that and not put ourselves in the (same) position.

“Players have to take more responsibility. We all have to. Everybody has to step up a little bit here. It’s not a time for speeches and a lot of talk. It’s getting out and playing.”

I don’t really understand what Krystkowiak is trying to say here. I guess he’s decided that his players aren’t doing what he wants them to for whatever reason. But who is that really an indictment of? Doesn’t that reflect back on him?

I think that this was a veiled shot at Mo Williams’ defense, specifically his complete inability to get through picks and keep Jason Williams from getting open 3 after open 3. It got so bad that eventually Krystkowiak switched Mason onto Jason Williams (which didn’t stop Chris Quinn from getting 3 open 3′s himself in the 4th quarter).

But my real problem with Krystkowiak in this game was my usual complaint about him — lack of imagination. It’s time to realize that some new lineups — for a few minutes at a time — are necessary. Just a couple of adjustments might have given a little insight into the team, and maybe even saved the game.

Two examples:

When the Bucks were cruising along with a 13 point lead in the 3rd quarter I turned to my friend and said, “Now’s the time to bring in Yi for Mason.” Yi looks awful right now, and seems to be moving at half speed, but he did an okay job against Marion in the first half and that would have moved Villanueva to the 3. This was a perfect situation to try a big lineup out. How would Villanueva have looked matched up with Ricky Davis? What would Pat Riley have done? If it doesn’t work and Miami runs off a quick 6-0 run, then take Yi out.

In the fourth quarter, when the Bucks were in the process of blowing the game but hadn’t quite lost the lead yet, Krystkowiak gave Mo a rest and trotted out a lineup of Ivey-Bell-Mason-Yi-Ruffin. How, exactly, is that supposed to work? Who is supposed to score? With Yi in such a funk, not one of those players is remotely capable of creating a shot. Not surprisingly, that lineup was on the floor while Miami would take their eventual lead. Why not use Sessions in that situation? You would get a real point guard in there, someone who is bigger who might be able to defend a pick-and-roll a little better, and he would be matched up against a relatively poor defender (either Jason Williams or Chris Quinn). Don’t you want to see what you have in Sessions, even if it’s only for a couple of minutes at a time?

Either way, it is clear: from his actions during the game and his comments after it, Krystkowiak is missing the point: winning is still the goal, but the time has come to accept that what you have done to this point hasn’t worked. It’s time to think up some new options with an eye toward the future. If you are going to lose to Miami anyway, it’s pointless to lose to them by doing the exact same things that have carried you to 43 other losses this season.

Without much new Bucks news to report, it’s tim to look at the rest of the league. The trade deadline this season brought several interesting moves that changed the landscape of this NBA season drastically. What happened to the whole “NBA GM’s are afraid to take any risks” label? It sure disappeared this season. But who won and who lost?

To try and put each teams’ moves in perspective, I looked at how the overall IPM’s of each team changed before and after each move. IPM (impacts per minute), in case you are not familiar, is my proprietary statistical player ranking method. It gives a good picture of how a player’s overall game influences his value on the court. The methodology is available here, player performance to date is available here, and team power rankings are available here. This information is always available through the links on the right side of this page, under the heading “IPM Data”.

To calculate the impact that trades had on a team, I averaged the IPM scores for each teams’ top 8 players both before and after the trade deadline. By calculating the percentage change in the data, one can surmise how a team’s prospects have changed. It’s not an absolute judgment, but a very good starting point.

On to the reviews:

The Losers:

Memphis: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.754; Post-deadline IPM, 0.678 (-10.1%).
Traded Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Assorted Beads and Trinkets, and Jason Collins.
While the Gasol trade was a total joke considering how little they got back, it was the right thing to do. They weren’t going anywhere with Gasol, so it was time to start over. Given the unstable situation this team is in, getting cap space and a bunch of draft picks is the best thing for them, since they weren’t in any position to try and win anything for years anyway.

Seattle: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.737; Post-deadline IPM, 0.711 (-3.6%).
Traded Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Kurt Thomas for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Donyell Marshall, Adrian Griffin, and Ira Newble.
Impressive job by Sam Presti to manage to acquire only one player who would fit into their top 8 (Barry), and he was promptly waived. The interesting thing here is that Presti made deals that he didn’t have to (he doesn’t save significant money and will still have cap room coming) and he received players he didn’t need in order to help out San Antonio and Cleveland , the two NBA teams that have employed him in the past. Remember how Greg Popovich was whining that the league should have a “fairness committee” or something to strike down the Gasol trade? I don’t think he’s complaining any more.

Houston: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.842; Post-deadline IPM, 0.813 (-3.5%).
Traded Kirk Snyder, Mike James and Bonzi Wells for Bobby Jackson and Gerald Green.
I think the numbers lie here. Houston didn’t lose much. Credit Daryl Morey for taking the opportunity to rid his locker room of some headaches, even though the team has been playing exceptionally well. James and Wells were putting up decent per-minute numbers but weren’t playing all that much, and by adding Jackson they roll the dice on yet another backup point guard. Green is a good gamble, especially since he now gets to learn from the player he is most often compared to, Tracy McGrady (the jury is out on whether that turns out to be a good thing).

Phoenix: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.807 (-2.5%).
Traded Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.
When I first heard of this move I thought it was a mistake for the Suns. Now I’ve seen them play with Shaq, and I’m convinced it was a colossal mistake. A team-killing mistake.
The trade doesn’t work on so many levels. I don’t understand the logic of wanting to improve their defense and rebounding and cut payroll, so their method of doing this was to trade their best defender and second best rebounder for a player who cannot defend or rebound any longer and is paid more and for longer. Meanwhile Shaq has not been able to stay healthy for more than 10 games at a time for years, and he now goes to a team whose coach has been derided for using too shallow a rotation for years? Incredibly, the Suns now only have nine players who average over seven minutes a game! I know Marcus Banks is terrible, but now they have to give his minutes to DJ Strawberry. Is that an improvement?
The whole “Marion is a superior player to O’Neal at this stage” argument aside, there’s another thing: for the Suns to make a deep playoff run they will have to play about 50 more games. In a conference that is so tightly bunched that a 5 game losing streak might knock you out of the playoffs altogether, what are the odds that Shaq will be able to stay healthy and contribute in most of those 50 games? 30%? 40%? To be charitable, 60%? Meanwhile, there’s a 95% chance Marion would be around for whatever the team needed from him.
I understand that Phoenix wasn’t happy with the team chemistry and blamed Marion (which is funny because the problem with Marion is that he blames everyone around him for all kinds of stuff , real and imaginary). But it would not surprise me at all if Phoenix misses the playoffs this season because of this trade.

Teams that Didn’t Change Much:

Chicago: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.765; Post-deadline IPM, 0.751 (-1.4%).
Traded Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin for Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons.
Sort of like Memphis, the Bulls weren’t going anywhere this season, and long-term this was a good move. The Ben Wallace signing was not working out and by trading his cap-killer contract for Hughes’, at least the Bulls now free up court time for Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas.

New Jersey: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.796; Post-deadline IPM, 0.786 (-1.3%).
Traded Jason Kidd, Antoine Wright and Jason Collins for Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, DeSagna Diop, and Stromile Swift.
Actually, New Jersey did a pretty good job considering they were trading a superstar. While Harris is no Kidd, he’s an up-and-coming player who recently signed a pretty reasonable contract extension. He’s certain to be better than Kidd two years from now. Diop was a nice acquisition, making up for the loss of Collins’ defense. I’m sure that they are pretty disappointed they didn’t move Vince Carter as well, but there has to be something to make their master plan of being under the cap in 2010 (for a run at LeBron James) more difficult.

Atlanta: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.759; Post-deadline IPM, 0.750 (-1.2%).
Traded Shelden Williams and Other Assorted Spare Parts for Mike Bibby.
Hey, look! Atlanta did something! And they got a point guard! This trade only shows up negative in the IPM because Bibby was coming back from thumb surgery a little slowly. This was an excellent move by Atlanta, as they got the player they needed, traded away four guys they didn’t, and dumped a huge draft bust in Williams. This trade should solidify their playoff position and an opportunity to get hammered by Boston in the first round.

Dallas: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.811; Post-deadline IPM, 0.817 (+0.8%).
Traded Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris and DeSagna Diop for Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright.
Between Jerry Stackhouse’s big mouth, Devean George’s obnoxious agent, an unnecessary $10 million in extra luxury tax payment, maybe Mark Cuban should have gotten the message: God thinks this is a bad trade for the Mavericks.
Enough has been written about “Jason Kidd is a great leader, general, blah blah blah” so that everyone forgets that he whined his way out of Dallas 10 years ago because he and Jim Jackson both wanted to date Toni Braxton. He’s fought with every coach he’s ever had and brought his personal problems to every team he’s been affiliated with.
I know that everyone loves playing with him, but Cuban just gave up a lot to acquire a guy who is 35 and was complaining about his contract before the trade. Also, Kidd’s shooting, never a strength, has slipped to 36% this season. He was still rebounding like a maniac (for a point guard), but it remains to be seen how that will hold up now that he’s on a team full of great rebounders.
I have one other question , who is supposed to guard Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chris Paul? Kidd couldn’t keep Parker out of the lane in the finals four years ago!
Honestly, the more I think about this trade the more I think that Jason Kidd offers such a marginal improvement to Dallas that they gave up way too much to get him.

Miami: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.752; Post-deadline IPM, 0.765 (+1.7%).
Traded Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
I thought this move would propel Miami firmly into mediocrity (which is a big improvement from “laughingstock”) but at 0-5 since the trade, that sure hasn’t happened. I’m glad that Miami did this trade because it will give an interesting look at whether Marion truly is a great, underrated player (as most stats analysts have said for years) or just a product of the Phoenix system who was made great by Steve Nash. When you look at the ratio of dollars per minute played, though, this was a great move by Miami, and probably their last chance to get rid of Shaquille O’Neal before he could barely play any longer.

The Winners:

San Antonio: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.850 (+2.7%).
Traded Brent Barry and Francisco Elson for Kurt Thomas.
Got to love Phoenix’s roster management. They trade away Kurt Thomas to get his salary off their books, and then decide they need to make a panic trade because Thomas was the only player they had to match up with Tim Duncan. Meanwhile, the Spurs nab Thomas for themselves, and now they are the ones with a fresh body to throw at Shaq, Yao, Chandler, Bynum and Camby in the playoffs.
The rich get richer.

New Orleans: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.772; Post-deadline IPM, 0.794 (+2.8%).
Traded Bobby Jackson for Bonzi Wells and Mike James.
This was a funny trade for Houston and New Orleans. The Rockets , a division rival — gave the Hornets exactly what they needed (bench scoring from multiple positions) and took what the Hornets don’t need (a backup point guard) in return. You almost have to ask: What’s the catch?
Looks like Houston sure was desperate to rid themselves of those guys, but when a team has a great point guard like Chris Paul to boost everyone else’s stats, that sort of locker room whining probably disappears in a hurry.
With the West so bunched up and every team a 5-game losing streak away from falling out of the playoffs altogether, the Hornets needed to make a move like this to ensure they have enough firepower. The surprise team of the regular season might be ready for a deep playoff run now.

Los Angeles Lakers: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.818; Post-deadline IPM, 0.848 (+3.7%).
Traded Nobody They Wanted and Two Draft Picks That Will be in the Late 20′s for Pau Gasol.
What’s amazing is that Kwame Brown was only the 12th best player on the Lakers in the first place, and they turned him into a multiple-time all-star. What more can be said about this deal? Once Andrew Bynum returns then this team is immediately one of the top two or three in the West. The only thing that should be able to stop the Lakers from at least reaching the Conference Finals would be Kobe Bryant’s injured finger becoming worse.

Cleveland: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.755; Post-deadline IPM, 0.803 (+6.4%).
Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons for Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Sczcerbiak, and Delonte West.
How bad was the non-LeBron portion of the Cavs’ roster before the deadline? Every player they added became one of their top 8 by IPM, and one of those was Ben Wallace!
It’s really incredible how pathetic that team was before the break, and amazing that LeBron was able to carry them to the finals this season. Now, even with Boston and Detroit in the picture, they might be able to get back there this season.
Suddenly their roster has become deep and well-composed. Wallace still has value as a team defender, Smith is a nice all-around player who is a good complement for Varejao, and Delonte West suddenly becomes a valuable piece with the injury to Daniel Gibson.
But Sczcerbiak is the key here , he’s the shooter than the Cavaliers have been seeking for years, and while he can’t guard a chair, he is surrounded by A-level defenders in James, Varejao, Ilgauskas and Wallace.

Thanks to the trade deadline, the Eastern Conference has three powers now.

There’s something you don’t see every day — a hall-of-famer traded with almost no notice. In case you haven’t noticed, Shaquille O’Neal was traded to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.

You’ve got to think this deal is a major coup for Miami and a major blunder for Phoenix.

The Heat save money by shedding the last two years of Shaq’s contract (Marion can opt-out this season) and even if Marion does, they will have the inside track on locking up a far-better player than will hit free agency any time soon. By IPM they trade the 50th best player in the league for the 33rd best – but I have always felt that IPM severely underrates Marion. His numbers are impacted negatively by Phoenix’s furious pace, and IPM can’t account for his defensive prowess or the fact that he is a 40 mpg ironman (as opposed to Shaq, who has been limited to 32 games and 28.5 mpg).

So Phoenix trades a great player who is in his prime for an aging center who does not fit their system. Why?

I can only come up with two reasons — both of them shortsighted panic moves. The Suns’ chemistry has been an issue all season, and apparently it centers around friction between Marion and Amare Stoudemire. Marion is a notoriously hard guy to please (he only has a max contract, plays the most minutes on the team, has been the leading scorer, and is a four-time all-star. And he still feels “disrespected”?) so it was probably the easy decision to ship him out over Stoudemire. But the problems haven’t affected them on the court — they are the third best team in the league, and are actually defending this season!

GM Steve Kerr is under a lot of pressure to win now, since the window is closing on Steve Nash and the Suns have shortsightedly sold most of their draft picks recently in an effort to save money. Now, seeing that his team is 5-9 against Western Conference teams that are over .500, he assumes that they aren’t big enough to stick with the big boys in the West. However, there are two problems with that logic — while the Suns’ style might have had trouble in scattered games here and there against the Spurs, Lakers and Mavs that doesn’t necessarily mean that those teams can keep up with them in a seven game series. So Kerr decides to make a move for more defense and rebounding, and trades his best defender and second best rebounder for a slow, injury prone center who can’t defend or rebound any more. According to Johnny Ludden of Yahoo, via ESPN’s TrueHoop, Shaq just might be far less of a player than people realize — in fact, he might barely be able to dunk.

Meanwhile, Miami instantly becomes a creditable team. With two superstars who are 40 mpg machines when healthy, the spare parts of Udonis Haslem, Ricky Davis and Mark Blount is enough to give this team a chance to win almost any night. They won’t be a great team, and they are too far back to make the playoffs, but they can give any team they run into problems.

Which brings me to how that affects the Bucks: In my treatise about how the Bucks can make the playoffs, I had counted both remaining Miami games as wins. That’s not a sure thing any more. In fact, I can’t really see the Bucks beating a full-strength Miami team in Miami. Also, the Heat don’t play New Jersey any more times this season

Now the Bucks are going to have to steal a couple more games than I thought. Before the trade I could see Milwaukee squeaking into the playoffs with 35 wins. But if those two Miami wins become losses? No way 33 wins is enough.

Oh, was it nice to watch the Bucks head into Miami and control the second half of a game for once.

And was it satisfying to see Charlie Bell and Bobby Simmons play well.

Lets not forget that it was only the Heat that the Bucks took down. Miami has the second worst home record in the league, Wade is not quite back to the level where he was, and the Heat, without Shaquille O’Neal and Alonzo Mourning, were down to only 3 frontcourt players (Udonis Haslem, Mark Blount, and Earl Barron). But it was still nice to see the Bucks win a road game that they really should have won; especially since the failures in Denver, Chicago and Detroit are still in recent memory.

Finally the Bucks weren’t killed by Simmons and Bell.

I think it’s pretty clear now that Simmons must not be 100% healthy and only can handle 15-20 minutes a game, because if there was ever a night when he should have played more it was last night. Miami spent a good portion of the 4th quarter using a 4-guard lineup, and Redd had already taken a seat, so I have to assume that the only reason Simmons wasn’t still in is because he was tapped out. Simmons shot well and while it kind of looked like he was struggling defensively, I think a closer review shows that most of the breakdowns around him weren’t his fault.

For example, Ricky Davis blew by him for one layup, and Krystkowiak immediately called a timeout to chew out Yi for not rotating. Then Davis got another layup on a play where Simmons left Davis to cover Bogut’s man under the basket, because Bogut had left to double Wade. Great pass by Wade, not a bad play by Simmons.

Charlie Bell was even better than Simmons, as he shot well (5-9) and also added 5 rebounds (3 offensive). During the game broadcast last night, Craig Cashun related some quotes from Bell about the difficulty of getting out of his shooting slump because practice time is so limited once the season starts. While this is a very valid point, it also illustrates how Bell should have been benched a long time ago. If he was coming to the arena every night knowing that he would only play 5 minutes a game instead of 30, then it gives him the time to use his energy practicing his shot pre-game, rather than needing to conserve himself for the game. Hopefully last night’s game will prove to be a turning point for him. If he shoots 50% the rest of the season then his totals will wind up right around his career averages, and this disasterous first third of the season can be forgotten.

Another point from the broadcast last night was that Redd — who only scored 8 points and left the game after the 3rd quarter with the Bucks only up 4 — has been fighting a bad cold since Christmas. This coincides with some pretty poor games from him, and could also explain why his game — shot selection and energy level — seems to have regressed in a big way since the Denver game.

Of course, this has led to some people thinking that the Bucks are better without Redd (read the comments section in the Journal-Sentinel Bucks Blog). This is ridiculous.

The reason the Bucks won last night was that they simply dominated the glass — a 41-28 rebounding edge — and everybody except Redd (and Ivey) had a good night shooting the ball. You can’t count on 7 of the 9 players who took a shot to make 50% or more every night. The Bucks offense looked so great in the 4th quarter because nobody was missing shots — 71% shooting in the 4th — but they were still turning the ball over as ferociously as with Redd in earlier (5 times in the quarter, 20 times in the game) and when it was all done they had only outscored Miami by one point in the 4th. Without Redd’s ability to draw fouls they had a hard time slowing down Miami’s furious run to end the game. The Bucks need Michael Redd to take a lead role in the offense — a bad stretch of 5 games doesn’t change that.

It was only Miami, but at least it was a win. There was some good stuff happening on the court on Wednesday, and hopefully it continues.

I’m watching the Miami Heat play the Boston Celtics right now on ESPN and two minutes into the first quarter there are more empty seats in each of the visible rows than full seats.

With Boston being the hottest team in the league right now and the shiny, new attraction that is drawing the fans in, it’s hard to believe that this game isn’t sold out. Why don’t Heat fans feel it necessary to show up on time?

When the Celtics roll into Milwaukee on March 15th you have to believe that nearly every seat will be full before the first point is scored.

Ah, the Southeast. Warm, sunny weather. Laid back people. Several average basketball teams, each with major flaws , especially at power forward. Except for Atlanta, who lacks pretty much everything except a ton of power forwards. This is a funny division — the only one without a good championship contender, but Atlanta might be the best “worst” team in any division. There should be plenty of entertaining games in this division, but no hardware come June.

1: Washington: You know the old saying, “The best defense is a good offense”? Well, last year the Wizards proved that one true until the injuries piled up. Washington had the 6^th best offense in the league (by IPM) last year, but the 26^th best defense. It all seemed to be working as the Wiz cruised into mid-March at 34-25 and were thinking about the #1 seed in the East. However, injuries to Caron Butler and then Gilbert Arenas sent the team into a tailspin. They finished with a 6-13 face plant, with all 6 wins coming against non-playoff teams. The hobbled Wizards were then crushed in the playoffs by Cleveland.

Washington’s identity was built around the eye-popping play of Gilbert Arenas, who might be the deadliest late-game player currently in the league. However, Caron Butler may have actually been their most important player, as he raised his offensive game to All-Star level and was also one of their best perimeter defenders (but that’s all relative to his teammates. Butler’s defense was pretty average). The whole no-defense policy will continue for at least another year as defense-allergic Antwan Jamison and limited Brendan Haywood make up the starting frontcourt. Tragically, co-starting center (and frequent wrestling opponent of Haywood) Etan Thomas’ career is in doubt after requiring surgery to repair a heart defect, which will press first round pick Oleksiy Pecherov into action sooner than expected.

The Wiz didn’t do anything of note with their roster, mostly because they were already right at the luxury tax line and they will also have to break the bank next offseason to extend Arenas’ contract. They let bust Jarvis Hayes go and resigned DeShawn Stevenson and Andray Blatche, so their 8 man rotation returns virtually unchanged.

The Wizards had a system that worked last year , score enough to keep it close until the 4^th quarter, then give it to Gilbert and get out of the way , and they are going to try it again. Assuming that Arenas comes back at full strength (and there is no reason to believe he wont) then this team is the class of the division. They should win 50, but that shaky defense makes them ripe for a first-round playoff upset.

2: Orlando: A couple of months ago I wrote that if the Magic wanted a scoring small forward then they should have tried to trade for Corey Maggette instead of signing Rashard Lewis. I still think that is true, and if they hadn’t committed so much money to Lewis then they might have been one of the few teams able to put together a somewhat reasonable offer for Kobe Bryant. Oh well, we’ll never know. Instead the Magic used all their cap room on Lewis and failed to address their real needs , power forward and shooting guard.

Last year Orlando had a very oddly-composed roster. Their top seven players were either centers (Howard and Darko Milicic), small forwards (Hidyaet Turkoglu, Grant Hill and Trevor Ariza) or point guards (Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson). This made it very difficult for them to field a balanced team , they never could find the right player to pair with Howard, couldn’t use their small forwards together because none of them shot well enough or was quick enough to play the 2, and couldn’t use Arroyo and Nelson together because they were too small for the 2. It resulted in a team that was awful offensively, but at least because of the emergence of Howard played very well defensively. However, that roster imbalance caught up to them eventually, and they were dispatched with ease by Detroit in the first round.

After losing Milicic because they elected to sign Rashard Lewis (to a totally ridiculous contract) they still have a logjam at small forward and completely failed to address the gap at power forward. They signed Adonal Foyle intending for him to tag-team with Tony Battie at the 4, only to learn that Battie will miss the season with a torn rotator cuff. They also did nothing to fill in the shooting guard spot, apparently assuming that JJ Redick will be ready to step in as the starter. However, it appears that the college knock on Redick , that he’s not athletic enough , has carried over into the pros. While Redick shot okay his rookie year, his numbers of rebounds, blocks and steals were sorely lacking , which is a good indicator of ones athleticism.

By adding a 20 point per game scorer in Lewis, the Magic did address their most pressing need , scoring ability. This should not be one of the worst offenses in the league any more. However, they are so thin at power forward that Dwight Howard will have to pretty much do all the work himself, which probably won’t lead to many more wins or get the team any farther than it did last season , an improvement to 45 wins this year and another first round playoff exit.

3: Charlotte: For a short while, it appeared that the Bobcats were ready to make their big splash, fill up their salary cap, and make their move for the playoffs this season. But they made one big misstep , and now an early injury has short circuited their season before it began.

Michael Jordan showed he was serious about spending some money on draft night when they traded Brandan Wright for Jason Richardson. This was a big move because it allowed Gerald Wallace (who they would resign to a very reasonable contract) to concentrate on his natural small forward position and would banish Adam Morrison deep on the bench. But here is where Charlotte screwed up , before resigning Wallace, they should have jumped all over Anderson Varejao and tried offering him a contract in the 4 yr/$40 million range. Cleveland is right up against the luxury tax and should they have let Varejao go, he would have given Charlotte great depth at power forward , a defensive specialist alongside the offensive minded, defense-impaired Sean May and Walter Herrmann. However, Charlotte took the easy route , resigning Wallace and then using the remainder of the cap lavishing a bizarre 6 year, $27 million contract on shooting specialist Matt Carroll (think Charlie Bell without the ballhandling ability or defense , no wonder Bell is pissed) and trusting that May and Herrmann could handle the power forward position.

That plan lasted 1 week into training camp. May tore up his knee and will miss the season, so Herrmann becomes the de-facto starter. That puts tons of pressure on defensive maven Emeka Okafor and, an even bigger problem, will make Gerald Wallace spend some time at the 4. But now Charlotte is saying that Adam Morrison will likely miss the season with a knee injury. Morrison was so bad last season that he was on the short list of answers to the question “who was the worst player in the NBA last year who saw regular playing time?” (with the answer being either Morrison, Antonie Walker or Brian Scalabrine). For a shooting specialist, Morrison showed no shooting ability, putting up a lovely 37% from the field and unremarkable 71% from the line. He couldn’t rebound or pass either, averaging 3.9 rebounds per 40 minutes and 2.8 assists/40. At least his defense was comically bad, though. He was awful in every sense of the word, and can already pretty much be written off as a bust. On the bright side, Charlotte’s insistence on playing him nearly 30 mpg cost them several losses , so at least the team was better than their record last season. However, now that he is hurt, Charlotte has to wonder who will replace his meager production.

Charlotte was poised to make a big leap this season, but the injury bug has already started to hit them and unless they can get a solid 35 mpg from Walter Herrmann they will have to settle for a little hop. They now have a nice starting 5 , a developing point guard, an established 2 guard, a near-star at small forward and a dominant defender in the middle. A little turn of good luck somewhere could propel them to 40 wins and keep them in the mix for the playoffs.

4: Miami: The Heat put together the lamest championship defense since the 1999 Bulls. On one hand it wasn’t their entire fault as injuries claimed most of the roster. On the other hand, though, the roster was fatally flawed, and it seemed like motivation was a problem , other than Dwyane Wade and Alonzo Mourning, the whole team seemed content to half-ass it until the playoffs. You could sort of tell on opening night that Miami wouldn’t be around in the end when they started their title defense by losing 108-66 to the Bulls.

Predictably, Shaquille O’Neal promptly hit the DL to rest up for the playoffs, and the rest of the roster was on cruise control as well. Jason Williams always seems to be disinterested, and Antoine Walker was simply unconscious all season , but I don’t mean that in a good way. Walker’s game completely collapsed, as he set career lows in points and rebounds, and only shot 25% from 3 point range but still managed to fire up 4 per game. How many bricks can you lay before you give it up?

The one bright spot was Dwyane Wade, who simply did everything for this injury- and motivation-plagued team. He was the best player in the league until a shoulder injury ended his season, and he is not supposed to be back until mid-November at the earliest (ESPN recently reported that Wade would be unavailable until January, which Pat Riley denies). Honestly, probably the most amazing thing about Wade’s season was that he lasted as long as he did, given the constant punishment he takes with his all-out playing style. I thought it was interesting that Miami used their first round pick on a shooting guard this season , maybe they are thinking that the only way to keep Wade in one piece is to eventually reduce his minutes?

The luxury tax-strapped Heat had an oddball offseason as they tried to use the midlevel exception and the star power of Shaq and Wade to raid the Bucks’ roster, but would up being played like suckers instead. First Mo Williams made noise about loving Miami until the Bucks raised their contract offer, and then Charlie Bell inked a deal that was eventually matched by Milwaukee (much to Bell’s chagrin). Miami wound up doing little more than signing Smush Parker and sensibly picking up Alexander Johnson to be their backup power forward. Other than that, this team is about as shallow behind it’s superstars as Boston.

It makes me laugh how media types keep referring to Miami as a place to go “to compete for a championship.” While in a perfect world , everybody healthy, motivated and in shape , the Heat can throw out an imposing lineup, in reality they are so full of holes that “¦ there are more holes than solid sections. Because of the “I’ll be there for the playoffs” mentality Shaq is becoming less and less of a factor in the regular season, plus this year has the distraction of an increasingly bitter divorce. When Wade will be at full strength is an open question, and behind Udonis Haslem and Mourning the roster is made up of a bunch of has-beens and never-will-be’s. I can’t imagine them getting Shaq and Wade together more than 50 times this season, and those other 30 games will be rough. I don’t think they win more than 37.

5: Atlanta: You’ve got to love a team whose idea of adding veteran leadership is drafting Shelden Williams and Al Horford. The continuing front office mess in Atlanta hamstrung yet another offseason for the Hawks, as their warring ownership group is court-ordered to agree amongst themselves on any player moves that involves anything more complex (or expensive) than draft picks and minimum-salary signings. As a result, the Hawks wont agree on anything and so were forced to shoot down a 3-way Kevin Garnett trade that would have netted Atlanta Amare Stoudamire. Oh well, so much for that.

So that means the only thing that GM Billy “who needs Chris Paul?” Knight could do is draft Horford and Acie Law. Horford is supposed to be as close to a sure-thing contributor at power forward as can be, which Atlanta needs since it appears that Marvin Williams is never going to be able to fill the bill and that Shelden Williams is already as good as he is going to get. I don’t like players like Law, though , point guards who spring onto the scene based on one good college season and people say things like; “he’s more of a born leader than a point guard” and “he’s got a habit of hitting big shots.” Last guy I heard described like this who got taken around the 10^th pick in the draft was Reece Gaines. Remember him?

The Hawks better hope I’m wrong about Law, because he’s pretty much all they’ve got at the position. Speedy Claxton’s game fell apart, and Tyronn Lue won’t bring home many wins. The rest of the roster is theoretically pretty talented , at least, they have a ton of guys who were high draft picks there. Joe Johnson had a mildly disappointing, injury-plagued season after his bust out the season before, and Josh Smith asserted himself as one of the most talented and most immature players in the league, as Smith put up all-star numbers but also got a 2-game suspension from his team for throwing a temper tantrum on the bench. As far as bench talent, Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, and Josh Childress were all between the #2 and #15 picks in the draft, and the quietly effective Zaza Pachulia holds down the center position.

But this is still a roster of talented guys who have never done anything. And if the Hawks don’t get their management/front office situation settled, they never will. It’s going to be yet another 32 win season in the peach state.