The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

A roundup of the blogger previews on the net for the NBA’s Southwest Division.

Dallas Mavericks
Jake Kerr: Mavs Moneyball

Houston Rockets
grungedave and UofTOrange: The Dream Shake

Memphis Grizzlies
Joshua Coleman: 3 Shades of Blue

New Orleans Hornets
Rohan: At the Hive
ticktock6 & mW: Hornets Hype
Ryan Schwan & Ron Hitley: Hornets247.com

San Antonio Spurs
Graydon Gordian: 48 Minutes of Hell

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6’7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6’11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

Without much new Bucks news to report, it’s tim to look at the rest of the league. The trade deadline this season brought several interesting moves that changed the landscape of this NBA season drastically. What happened to the whole “NBA GM’s are afraid to take any risks” label? It sure disappeared this season. But who won and who lost?

To try and put each teams’ moves in perspective, I looked at how the overall IPM’s of each team changed before and after each move. IPM (impacts per minute), in case you are not familiar, is my proprietary statistical player ranking method. It gives a good picture of how a player’s overall game influences his value on the court. The methodology is available here, player performance to date is available here, and team power rankings are available here. This information is always available through the links on the right side of this page, under the heading “IPM Data”.

To calculate the impact that trades had on a team, I averaged the IPM scores for each teams’ top 8 players both before and after the trade deadline. By calculating the percentage change in the data, one can surmise how a team’s prospects have changed. It’s not an absolute judgment, but a very good starting point.

On to the reviews:

The Losers:

Memphis: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.754; Post-deadline IPM, 0.678 (-10.1%).
Traded Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Assorted Beads and Trinkets, and Jason Collins.
While the Gasol trade was a total joke considering how little they got back, it was the right thing to do. They weren’t going anywhere with Gasol, so it was time to start over. Given the unstable situation this team is in, getting cap space and a bunch of draft picks is the best thing for them, since they weren’t in any position to try and win anything for years anyway.

Seattle: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.737; Post-deadline IPM, 0.711 (-3.6%).
Traded Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Kurt Thomas for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Donyell Marshall, Adrian Griffin, and Ira Newble.
Impressive job by Sam Presti to manage to acquire only one player who would fit into their top 8 (Barry), and he was promptly waived. The interesting thing here is that Presti made deals that he didn’t have to (he doesn’t save significant money and will still have cap room coming) and he received players he didn’t need in order to help out San Antonio and Cleveland , the two NBA teams that have employed him in the past. Remember how Greg Popovich was whining that the league should have a “fairness committee” or something to strike down the Gasol trade? I don’t think he’s complaining any more.

Houston: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.842; Post-deadline IPM, 0.813 (-3.5%).
Traded Kirk Snyder, Mike James and Bonzi Wells for Bobby Jackson and Gerald Green.
I think the numbers lie here. Houston didn’t lose much. Credit Daryl Morey for taking the opportunity to rid his locker room of some headaches, even though the team has been playing exceptionally well. James and Wells were putting up decent per-minute numbers but weren’t playing all that much, and by adding Jackson they roll the dice on yet another backup point guard. Green is a good gamble, especially since he now gets to learn from the player he is most often compared to, Tracy McGrady (the jury is out on whether that turns out to be a good thing).

Phoenix: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.807 (-2.5%).
Traded Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.
When I first heard of this move I thought it was a mistake for the Suns. Now I’ve seen them play with Shaq, and I’m convinced it was a colossal mistake. A team-killing mistake.
The trade doesn’t work on so many levels. I don’t understand the logic of wanting to improve their defense and rebounding and cut payroll, so their method of doing this was to trade their best defender and second best rebounder for a player who cannot defend or rebound any longer and is paid more and for longer. Meanwhile Shaq has not been able to stay healthy for more than 10 games at a time for years, and he now goes to a team whose coach has been derided for using too shallow a rotation for years? Incredibly, the Suns now only have nine players who average over seven minutes a game! I know Marcus Banks is terrible, but now they have to give his minutes to DJ Strawberry. Is that an improvement?
The whole “Marion is a superior player to O’Neal at this stage” argument aside, there’s another thing: for the Suns to make a deep playoff run they will have to play about 50 more games. In a conference that is so tightly bunched that a 5 game losing streak might knock you out of the playoffs altogether, what are the odds that Shaq will be able to stay healthy and contribute in most of those 50 games? 30%? 40%? To be charitable, 60%? Meanwhile, there’s a 95% chance Marion would be around for whatever the team needed from him.
I understand that Phoenix wasn’t happy with the team chemistry and blamed Marion (which is funny because the problem with Marion is that he blames everyone around him for all kinds of stuff , real and imaginary). But it would not surprise me at all if Phoenix misses the playoffs this season because of this trade.

Teams that Didn’t Change Much:

Chicago: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.765; Post-deadline IPM, 0.751 (-1.4%).
Traded Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin for Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons.
Sort of like Memphis, the Bulls weren’t going anywhere this season, and long-term this was a good move. The Ben Wallace signing was not working out and by trading his cap-killer contract for Hughes’, at least the Bulls now free up court time for Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas.

New Jersey: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.796; Post-deadline IPM, 0.786 (-1.3%).
Traded Jason Kidd, Antoine Wright and Jason Collins for Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, DeSagna Diop, and Stromile Swift.
Actually, New Jersey did a pretty good job considering they were trading a superstar. While Harris is no Kidd, he’s an up-and-coming player who recently signed a pretty reasonable contract extension. He’s certain to be better than Kidd two years from now. Diop was a nice acquisition, making up for the loss of Collins’ defense. I’m sure that they are pretty disappointed they didn’t move Vince Carter as well, but there has to be something to make their master plan of being under the cap in 2010 (for a run at LeBron James) more difficult.

Atlanta: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.759; Post-deadline IPM, 0.750 (-1.2%).
Traded Shelden Williams and Other Assorted Spare Parts for Mike Bibby.
Hey, look! Atlanta did something! And they got a point guard! This trade only shows up negative in the IPM because Bibby was coming back from thumb surgery a little slowly. This was an excellent move by Atlanta, as they got the player they needed, traded away four guys they didn’t, and dumped a huge draft bust in Williams. This trade should solidify their playoff position and an opportunity to get hammered by Boston in the first round.

Dallas: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.811; Post-deadline IPM, 0.817 (+0.8%).
Traded Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris and DeSagna Diop for Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright.
Between Jerry Stackhouse’s big mouth, Devean George’s obnoxious agent, an unnecessary $10 million in extra luxury tax payment, maybe Mark Cuban should have gotten the message: God thinks this is a bad trade for the Mavericks.
Enough has been written about “Jason Kidd is a great leader, general, blah blah blah” so that everyone forgets that he whined his way out of Dallas 10 years ago because he and Jim Jackson both wanted to date Toni Braxton. He’s fought with every coach he’s ever had and brought his personal problems to every team he’s been affiliated with.
I know that everyone loves playing with him, but Cuban just gave up a lot to acquire a guy who is 35 and was complaining about his contract before the trade. Also, Kidd’s shooting, never a strength, has slipped to 36% this season. He was still rebounding like a maniac (for a point guard), but it remains to be seen how that will hold up now that he’s on a team full of great rebounders.
I have one other question , who is supposed to guard Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chris Paul? Kidd couldn’t keep Parker out of the lane in the finals four years ago!
Honestly, the more I think about this trade the more I think that Jason Kidd offers such a marginal improvement to Dallas that they gave up way too much to get him.

Miami: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.752; Post-deadline IPM, 0.765 (+1.7%).
Traded Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
I thought this move would propel Miami firmly into mediocrity (which is a big improvement from “laughingstock”) but at 0-5 since the trade, that sure hasn’t happened. I’m glad that Miami did this trade because it will give an interesting look at whether Marion truly is a great, underrated player (as most stats analysts have said for years) or just a product of the Phoenix system who was made great by Steve Nash. When you look at the ratio of dollars per minute played, though, this was a great move by Miami, and probably their last chance to get rid of Shaquille O’Neal before he could barely play any longer.

The Winners:

San Antonio: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.850 (+2.7%).
Traded Brent Barry and Francisco Elson for Kurt Thomas.
Got to love Phoenix’s roster management. They trade away Kurt Thomas to get his salary off their books, and then decide they need to make a panic trade because Thomas was the only player they had to match up with Tim Duncan. Meanwhile, the Spurs nab Thomas for themselves, and now they are the ones with a fresh body to throw at Shaq, Yao, Chandler, Bynum and Camby in the playoffs.
The rich get richer.

New Orleans: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.772; Post-deadline IPM, 0.794 (+2.8%).
Traded Bobby Jackson for Bonzi Wells and Mike James.
This was a funny trade for Houston and New Orleans. The Rockets , a division rival — gave the Hornets exactly what they needed (bench scoring from multiple positions) and took what the Hornets don’t need (a backup point guard) in return. You almost have to ask: What’s the catch?
Looks like Houston sure was desperate to rid themselves of those guys, but when a team has a great point guard like Chris Paul to boost everyone else’s stats, that sort of locker room whining probably disappears in a hurry.
With the West so bunched up and every team a 5-game losing streak away from falling out of the playoffs altogether, the Hornets needed to make a move like this to ensure they have enough firepower. The surprise team of the regular season might be ready for a deep playoff run now.

Los Angeles Lakers: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.818; Post-deadline IPM, 0.848 (+3.7%).
Traded Nobody They Wanted and Two Draft Picks That Will be in the Late 20′s for Pau Gasol.
What’s amazing is that Kwame Brown was only the 12th best player on the Lakers in the first place, and they turned him into a multiple-time all-star. What more can be said about this deal? Once Andrew Bynum returns then this team is immediately one of the top two or three in the West. The only thing that should be able to stop the Lakers from at least reaching the Conference Finals would be Kobe Bryant’s injured finger becoming worse.

Cleveland: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.755; Post-deadline IPM, 0.803 (+6.4%).
Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons for Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Sczcerbiak, and Delonte West.
How bad was the non-LeBron portion of the Cavs’ roster before the deadline? Every player they added became one of their top 8 by IPM, and one of those was Ben Wallace!
It’s really incredible how pathetic that team was before the break, and amazing that LeBron was able to carry them to the finals this season. Now, even with Boston and Detroit in the picture, they might be able to get back there this season.
Suddenly their roster has become deep and well-composed. Wallace still has value as a team defender, Smith is a nice all-around player who is a good complement for Varejao, and Delonte West suddenly becomes a valuable piece with the injury to Daniel Gibson.
But Sczcerbiak is the key here , he’s the shooter than the Cavaliers have been seeking for years, and while he can’t guard a chair, he is surrounded by A-level defenders in James, Varejao, Ilgauskas and Wallace.

Thanks to the trade deadline, the Eastern Conference has three powers now.

I watched most of the Bucks-Grizzlies games simply feeling bad for just about everyone involved in the game. There must have been 800 fans in the building at tipoff because of the weather. Bogut started out getting schooled by Darko Milicic of all people. Mike Miller was getting open jumpers whenever he wanted. The game even marked the arrival of the Kwame Brown “I just don’t really care all that much” tour to Memphis (great line by Jon McGlocklin when Brown was called for a foul on Gadzuric despite not coming within about a foot of him: “Brown didn’t even say a word! He just sort of shrugged his shoulders like, ‘okay’.”)Krystkowiak even started Bell and Ivey (giving up a total of 10 inches to Mike Miller and Rudy Gay), but I can’t complain about it because he didn’t have a choice.

Without Yi available, then Simmons had to play backup power forward (no word on why Voskuhl and Michael Ruffin are now apparently benched). So with Mason only in his second game back then Bell had to start at small forward, and without Redd that leaves only two more guards on the active roster. Is Harris planning on doing anything about this thin backcourt? I can’t wait for Mo to need to take a game off to rest his injured thumb (which will need surgery after the season). Then does Bell and Ivey play 48 minutes each?

Lets just say that this game didn’t give me much confidence in my playoff prediction. Thank you Mo for the personal 10-0 run to seal the game.

Meanwhile, can we finally put to bed the myth of Royal Ivey as a good defensive player?

Mike Miller went for 32 points (14 above his average) on 12-21 shooting. Especially in the first half he was able to get wide open looks almost whenever he wanted, ostensibly while on Ivey’s watch. The only thing that stopped him all night was getting clubbed in the face a couple of times by Villanueva.

Of course, Ivey has a reputation as a good defender and he must always bring the energy in practice, because he sure does play a lot. However, as I wrote a couple of weeks ago, I’m convinced that in order to get a good defensive reputation all you have to do is look good in your defensive stance and look annoyed when you get beat. Since the rules of basketball are slanted toward the offensive player, it is very difficult to actually judge just how “good” a defender someone is. I think that there are generally two types of great defensive players — people with the “whole package” (elite athletes with size/strength advantages who bring the effort all the time) and cheap shot artists (who make up for their lack of athleticism with a lack of morality). Just because a guy tries to fight through screens doesn’t make him a good defender — just someone who tries hard. In reality, though, a good defender is someone who holds his opponent to less production than he himself produces offensively. Talent always wins out in basketball — if you aren’t big, strong or fast enough that will get exploited, no matter how hard you try (although lack of effort will get exploited, too. Just ask Kwame Brown).

The trouble is that Ivey is nowhere near an average offensive player, so even if he could hold the people he defends to average production then he would still be a net-negative player.

The myth of Ivey’s defense is borne out in the stats, thanks to 82games.com. Ivey has played 37% of the time and the Bucks have been outscored by 11.1 points per 48 minutes with him on the court and by 5.3 pp/48 without him. They rebound slightly better without him, committ one more foul/48 with him and draw one fewer foul/48 without him.

82games.com also breaks down each players’ performance by the position they are playing, as well as the performance of their counterparts while in the game. The story is told by PER (Player Efficiency Rating — very similar to IPM). An average player will have a PER of 15, while a 20 PER is close to all-star level. Ivey is a poor offensive player (PER of 11.9 at point guard and 11.2 at shooting guard) while he turns the people he defends into studs (opposing point guards have a 22.3 PER against him and shooting guards run up a 19.4). On average he scores 14 points per 48 minutes and the guys he guards score 23.

Of course, with the thin backcourt it is all a moot point — Ivey has to play. But this just shows what a mistake it is to add a player to a team because his lack of offense makes you believe his defense is good.

And, while I’m bringing up statistics and love to go on and on about how Charlie Villanueva should play more, I just wanted to point out one more thing:

Yi Jianlian: 48 starts, 1 double-double
Desmond Mason: 25 starts, 1 double-double
Bobby Simmons: 20 starts, no double-doubles
Charlie Villanueva: 1 start, 2 double-doubles

Just saying.

All in all, while it was a truly uninspiring win against Memphis, it was a win. Considering that the Bucks were down three starters (and only had one should-be starter to plug in) they deserve some credit for withstanding the Grizzlies’ early run and hanging around until the end.

Now it’s off to Dallas, where a blowout loss wont really matter much. At least they split the road trip.

I had an exam, so I’m a little late to this (my bad), but it’s time to open up the site for in-game comments. As a reminder, anyone and everyone is welcome to jump in and discuss the game.

(This article refers to IPM, which is available here. IPM is described in the file, “What is IPM” and the article references “06-07 Team Predicted Wins”)

It’s time to start previewing the season! I’m going to cover one division every few days for the next month, and I’m starting with the toughest neighborhood in town (and home of the champs), the Southwest.

1: San Antonio: It’s becoming difficult to write about the Spurs , it seems like all they do every offseason is tinker a little with their bench, add 1 or 2 veterans who take less money than they could have gotten elsewhere, and add a European import that only they were smart enough to take a chance on. Well, that sums up this offseason as well.
They added Ime Udoka to spell and eventually replace the rapidly declining Bruce Bowen and traded Luis Scola for Vassilis Spanoulis, who was a highly effective guard in Greece before clashing badly with Jeff Van Gundy in Houston. The problem for the Spurs in this deal is that adding Scola to the Rockets makes them much better, but Spanoulis should fit in well as a backup to Tony Parker.

San Antonio may have only had the third best record in the league last year but they were the best team. According to my statistical measure, IPM, San Antonio underachieved by 3 games last year while both Phoenix and Dallas overachieved. (On a side note, I would guess that the Bucks were the only team to sweep the Spurs last year). It should be more of the same for San Antonio this year.

Typical boring old excellent Spurs. This is the best team and the best run organization in the NBA. The only thing they have to worry about is the age of their bench and the only thing they couldn’t withstand would be a serious injury to Tim Duncan. They return their top 9 players from last year (not counting Robert Horry, who returns but whose role has significantly diminished) and added a couple of potentially valuable parts. The Spurs should cruise to a 60 win season and I think they will win the championship again.

2: Dallas: The whole “Nowitzki shouldn’t have won the MVP because of his poor playoffs” argument drives me nuts. First of all, why does the perception of 6 poor games nullify the achievements of the previous 82? Secondly, Dirk wasn’t that bad , he averaged 20 ppg and 11.5 rpg in that series, and single-handedly won game 5 for the Mavs (down 9 with 3 minutes to go, a 3 possession stretch went Dirk 3-Dirk blocks a layup-Dirk 3-Dirk assist to Harris, and then Nowitzki made 4 free throws down the stretch to ice the game). The perception of Nowitzki having a bad series is masked by the fact that Avery Johnson’s coaching job was completely overmatched by Don Nelson. Nowitzki had 2 bad games in that series , game 1, when Nelson’s D was designed to keep the ball away from Dirk and Johnson never reacted, and game 6 when Dallas had no chance from the opening tip, losing by 25. Dirk was the MVP last year. Period.

The Nowitzki-blame game masked the real problem for Dallas last season , they weren’t nearly as good as their record. They overachieved by 10 games last season and, more importantly, seriously let up on defense at the end of the season. For the season I rank Dallas with the 10^th best offense and 2^nd best defense, but for the final couple of weeks of the season they fell off to the #26 offense and #7 defense. Part of this is normal energy conservation for a team heading into the playoffs, but the bottom line is that they weren’t playing hard (but still winning a bunch of close games) entering the playoffs and couldn’t get it going once they got there. That’s bad coaching.

What does it mean for this year? The Mavs did the right thing and didn’t shake things up, resigning Stackhouse and adding Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell when Minnesota bought him out. They are expecting a breakout season from Devin Harris, indicated by the fact that they signed him to a contract extension despite their long commitment to Jason Terry. The team has a lot of dead weight on the payroll ($23 million to Michael Finley and Shawn Bradley this season) but a good rotation that has 10 solid, established veterans. Avery Johnson has gotten the Mavs to play serious defense for him, and that fact combined with the urge to remove the stain of last seasons’ playoffs should keep this team playing hard all season.

However, they won’t win 67 again , you can’t overachieve like that two years in a row, especially while playing a schedule that is heavy on games with San Antonio and Houston. I’ll guess 59 wins.

3: Houston: Many people seem to have the Rockets as the sexy pick to topple the Spurs this year, but I have my doubts. I thought they could make a run last season, but this roster has lots of problems , namely too many variables for a championship contender. Of course, starting with Yao and McGrady is a great start, two of the top ten players in the game when they are healthy. However, Yao has never made it through a whole season, and McGrady’s chronic back problems make him day-to-day every single night. Shane Battier has locked down the small forward position, playing his usual excellent defense but suffered through a fairly poor year offensively. But the other two positions are huge question marks.

The Rockets added Luis Scola, who has been one of the best players in Europe for several years and have turned over the starting power forward position to him. He projects to be a solid addition, but honestly, who knows? Can you really depend on any rookie to contribute? Point guard is an even bigger mess. They have clearly tired of Rafer Alston, and brought in a truckload of potential replacements. Steve Francis and Mike James , who have only found success chucking up gobs of shots for bad teams , and Bob Sura (???) are the leading candidates to replace Alston, as well as first round pick Aaron Brooks.

Just for the heck of it, the Rockets primary bench scorer Bonzi Wells also returns, and presumably he intends to play this season instead of just sitting around because he can’t get along with his coach. Oh, one other change; Jeff Van Gundy gave up on the team and they brought in Rick Adleman to replace him.

So Houston begins this season with championship aspirations but only two “sure things” among its top 8 players , Battier and backup power forward Chuck Hayes (well, 3 if you include Dikembe Mutombo elbowing someone in the face) , while the starting lineup contains questions about the health of its best players, the ability of its power forward, the identity of its point guard, and the motivation of its bench scorer. At least when they changed coaches they went to Adleman, who runs a system that is completely different than Van Gundy’s both offensively and defensively. They will be more entertaining than they were last year, but I don’t think they will be better. 48 wins.

4: New Orleans: After two years in the friendly confines of Oklahoma City, the Hornets lose their incredible home-court advantage and return to the Big Easy, which greeted the team with a collective yawn when they were there before Hurricane Katrina. I think this team might be in for a shock , they aren’t as good as they looked the last couple of years.

They quickly lost Peja Stojakovic last season, but that may not have actually hurt them all that much , his game has really slipped, and he is massively overpaid. He has back problems and has reached an age where injuries and declining athleticism take their toll. They signed Morris Peterson to play alongside Peja, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that becomes more a signing to replace him. The frontcourt is a strength, where David West has established himself as an underrated, solid player and Tyson Chandler busted out in a big way.

However, I think that Tyson Chandler’s breakout was more about Chris Paul than Chandler himself. Chandler has always been a spectacular rebounder (averaging between 13.5 and 14.5 per 40 minutes ever since be turned 21) and dunker but is so clumsy with his hands and footwork that he could never create enough to improve his offensive game. That all changed with Paul dishing to him. Suddenly Chandler was getting free for 3-4 alley-oops per game, and his shooting percentage skyrocketed to almost 63%. But it’s not like Chandler was doing anything different (besides staying on the floor more than he had with the Bulls), he just had a point guard that could see scoring opportunities better than anyone else could.

Chris Paul is one of the best players in the game , a case could be made that he is the best pure point guard in the league right now , but I don’t think his greatness is enough to improve this teams prospects much. The rest of the roster behind Paul, West and Chandler is pretty blah, and they have to deal with the double whammy of playing in a new city before uncertain fan support and having to play the toughest schedule in the NBA with a steady diet of San Antonio, Dallas and Houston coming to town. But Paul alone is enough to keep them competitive on most nights. 37 wins.

5: Memphis: Is Memphis much better than it was last year? They got outrebounded by 20 in a preseason game against a Spanish League team the other day. So I’m thinking they’ve got a ways to go.

The Grizzlies spent their cap room this summer obtaining two players who have never seen any success in the NBA , Darko Milicic and Juan Carlos Navarro. Navarro has been a solid guard in Europe for several years and, even more importantly, is very close friends with Pau Gasol. However, at 6’3″ Navarro is a tweener, and Memphis has a glut of point guards already. It appears that Darko’s chance at stardom was washed away while he was buried on the bench in Detroit, as questions about his motivation and attitude have crept up on him. He’s only 22 and you can’t teach 7’1″, so it must be worth the 3 yr/$20 million risk that he will figure it out eventually, right? Just ask the Lakers how that’s worked out for them with Kwame Brown.

The Grizzlies have been roundly praised for drafting Mike Conley Jr, but I have my doubts about this signing. Point guards , Chris Paul and Magic Johnson excepted , always struggle their rookie year, so it’s a little unfair to expect a 20 year old Conley to pay dividends for a while anyway. But Conley has to drastically improve his shooting to reach his potential and I’m not so sure he can “¦ because he shoots left handed but he is actually not left handed! It’s no big deal for athletes to use their non-dominant hand to gain an advantage , switch-hitters do it all the time, and Phil Mickelson is right handed but learned the golf swing by standing opposite his father and doing the mirror image of his swing , but Conley’s left handed shooting is terrible. He was a 30% 3-point shooter in college. So why make the game harder on himself by shooting with his off hand? Complicating matters is the presence of Kyle Lowry , he started his rookie season on a hot streak before getting hurt after 10 games so the Grizzlies owe it to themselves to try and see what they got in their 2006 first round pick.

The Grizzlies’ other big move this season was the signing of Marc Ivaroni as head coach. He’s got a lot of work to do to help this team move up in this division. I’d say their goal would be 33 wins , if they avoid a 50 loss season then it will have been a success.