The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

The Lakers just finished off the Bucks on a last second shot by Kobe Bryant in overtime, and as one could predict, the Bucks hashtag on Twitter is a alive with allegations at the NBA is rigged, or at least Bryant is heavily favored. The call the anger is centered around is a blocking foul called on Andrew Bogut that turned into a three-point play for Kobe Bryant putting the Lakers down one.

So the question stands, is the NBA rigged against Milwaukee? I have to say no. I just can’t believe it.  Maybe it’s denial because I simply love the NBA too much, but I think there is also plenty of evidence to support that the NBA is not rigged against Milwaukee.

The Lakers in Milwaukee routinely brings out a large number of casual fans. Enough that it annoys Andrew Bogut (a tweet from last year that I believe started his progression towards making Squad Six). Those casual fans are going to judge a book by its cover, and tonight was the night for which they’ll likely base their opinion of the NBA for the year (with the exception of watching highlights of Jennings’ 55). Regardless if that’s right or wrong, there are a few things they will certainly miss.

1. The Bucks routinely give up more free throws than they take. Yes the spread was a lot tonight, but the Lakers are good team that can get to the line. The Bucks, as a product of their Scott Skiles style of defense, are a team that commits a lot of fouls. The stats on 82games confirm that through 22 games the Bucks have committed 100 more shooting fouls than their opponents which results in at least a 200 free throw deficiency.  The Lakers taking 16 more free throws than the Bucks isn’t that astounding, considering that usually give teams at least 9 more free throws a game. Not to mention how many times the Bucks get in the penalty early in a quarter, turning non-shooting fouls into free throws. No sign of the game being rigged because of the free throw discrepancy.
2. The Bucks had chances to win, despite any rigging by the refs. Bogut could have made the free throw near the end of regulation. Michael Redd could have had a better shot selection. Ersan Illyasova could have made at least one of his free throws in the closing minute.
3. The block/charge call is the hardest call for a ref to make.  It just has to be. It’s often enough a split second decision, not to mention a call that quickly result in a five-point swing (two points the other way vs the three point play). It’s simply not a call you can make correctly every time down the court.

I think the ref made the wrong call on the play, but I don’t think the game is rigged. It’s simply a call refs get wrong, frequently.

But does the casual fan care? Probably not. It’s easy to pass off that the game is rigged in the post-Donaghy era. It’s easy to hate the NBA if you live in Milwaukee right now, the Bucks haven’t been a great team for a lot of reasons since 2001. And famous ESPN writers are suggesting the series against Philadelphia to get to the NBA Finals might not have been completely honest.

Brandon Jennings gave the casual fan in Milwaukee a reason to care this year, just enough of a push to finally leave home on a frigid night and see the Bucks take on the defending champs. With that, the Bucks still couldn’t fill up the arena, drawing only 16,309. The casual fan in Milwaukee has been so put off by the team’s struggles of the past few years that the Bucks couldn’t manage to sell out the arena against either of the game’s biggest stars (drawing 16,625 against Lebron). Disheartening for a team that has given fans so many reasons to care this year. So many reasons to believe things are headed in the right direction.

Unfortunately the casual fans that came out for their first game of the year tonight were treated to what had to be the nightmare scenario for Bucks’ management, a closing seconds lost after a couple close calls. One has to assume it would have be better for future sales had the Bucks been blown out by 20, but Brandon Jennings matched Kobe basket-for-basket.

The complaining about the refs and the NBA playing favorites on Twitter are pale compared to the choice words I heard on my way out of the stadium tonight. Fans vowing never to come back, and asking themselves why they paid attention to the NBA at all this year seemed to be everywhere to be found. This depressed attitude amplified by the fact that they live in a city where it’s a Wednesday night with a temperature below 20 degrees, nearing the end of a Christmas shopping season where more people than ever in my lifetime don’t have the financial wherewithal to buy something for their loved ones.

And it’s a shame that there is a good chance they won’t come back. Now more than any season since Andrew Bogut was drafted, the Bucks are holding up their end of the bargain. Night-after-night they’re playing hard, looking more and more like a complete team, and giving fans a reason to come to the Bradley Center. In a city that can’t seem to get its act together around schools, transit, or jobs, the Bucks are finally providing a welcome escape. In a city that’s bitterly cold every winter, the Bucks are providing a welcome distraction.

It would be a shame for the casual fan to miss this year’s Bucks team because of a bad call. The game surely wasn’t officiated at a level that is the pinnacle of the profession, but it’s certainly not the world Tim Donaghy says it is.

See you at the Bradley Center.

The Pacific Division is probably the most interesting one in the NBA. With the Lakers returning to prominence and the Suns slowly mismanaging themselves into oblivion, this division is a lot of fun to watch. But it’s only interesting for the off-court stuff – this division shouldn’t be all that competitive this season.

1- LA Lakers: Am I the only person who isn’t sold on Andrew Bynum? Since most prognosticators seem to think he is the difference makers who is about to send the Lakers on a 2-3 year run of titles, apparently so. But I don’t like all of the conflicting stories that constantly surround him about his attitude and work ethic. For every story you hear about his personal big man camp with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar there is another one about how the Lakers want him in better shape and working harder on defense. First his knee injury was supposed to be a month, then the season, then it turns out he was never consulting the Lakers doctors in the first place – on the advice of Jim Buss (who had “discovered” and drafted Bynum, and considers him something of a personal project), Bynum was working with his own doctors all along. It all sounds like he is kind of going through his own little career path separate from the experience of the rest of his team. Does that sound like a way to build a winner? What happens when Kobe Bryant gets all over him in a big game? Bynum is big, young and talented; but it all makes me think that he is a little farther away from realizing that talent than people like to think. He’s still really good, but I’m still skeptical of him as a superstar.

Meanwhile, my guess is that the Lakers – who enter this season as the prohibitive favorite in the division instead of being seen as a team who might challenge for a playoff spot if Kobe decides to play hard – will cruise through the regular season, resting their two stars who played big minutes in the Olympics (and trying to ease the stress on Kobe’s injured finger). But for this team to cruise through the regular season likely makes them no less than a 3-seed. Their bench is unlikely to be as strong as it was last season (Ronny Turiaf is gone and Sasha Vujacic’s success was likely a bit of a fluke, but Jordan Farmar is for real and improving) but it will be about enough.

Last season: won 57 games.

-5 wins from Kobe pacing himself through the regular season.
-3 wins from the loss of Ronny Turiaf and a regression from Sasha Vujacic.
+2 wins from the return of Andrew Bynum.
+3 wins from having Pau Gasol for a whole season.

This season: 54-28.

2- Phoenix: Only in Robert Sarver’s twisted world can trading Shawn Marion (1 year, $17 million contract) and Marcus Banks (3 yrs/$15 million) for Shaquille O’Neal (2 yrs/$40 million) be seen as “saving” money (the Suns cut about $3 million in salary last season in the deal). Just about the only justification for having Shaq around now is that he will be a better locker room fit with the emotional Amare Stoudemire than the high-maintenance Marion was (in his book Can I Keep My Jersey, Paul Shirley related a great story about Stoudemire and Marion almost getting into a locker room brawl during training camp over who got to sit in a nicer chair). The big “last dash” at a title that the Suns tried last year was a failure and now the Suns are forced to waste 2 years of Stoudemire’s prime and most likely the beginning of the end of Nash’s career while waiting for Shaq’s millstone contract to expire. It’s not that Shaq is awful now, but he’s nowhere near the player he once was. He can barely dunk, is too slow to reliably stay out of foul trouble, and cannot be counted on for more than 15-20 minutes a game nowadays. He might still throw up the occasional 25-12 night, but the bad games will outnumber the good so often that it’s barely worth it to leave him on the court long enough to find out if he’s “got it” any particular night.

It’s good that Terry Porter is getting another chance as a head coach, but he’s got his work cut out for him if a title is the goal for this team. A more realistic goal is to try and let Nash and O’Neal cruise into the sunset and to start planning for rebuilding the team around Stoudemire in a couple of years.

Last year: Won 55 games.

-8 wins with Mike D’Antoni’s system gone.
-2 wins from Shaq continuing to slow down.
-2 wins from losing the offensive system that was absolutely perfect for Steve Nash.
+2 wins from Leandro Barbosa taking a larger role.
+2 wins from Amare Stoudemire officially being “the man”.

This year: 47-35.

3- Golden State: In a game of dueling free agent signings, the Warriors essentially traded Baron Davis for Corey Maggette. Just try to spin that one. Okay … Maggette sounds like the perfect Don Nelson player: big, fast, athletic, and doesn’t play any defense. Yeah, that’s not working for me, either. By stockpiling players like Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph in the last couple of drafts and resigning Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis, the Warriors may be set up well for three years down the road but it’s going to get a little ugly this year. At least Ellis seems to be dependable and ready to assert himself as a go-to team leading star. Oh, wait ….

Last year: Won 48 games.

-8 wins from the loss of Baron Davis.
-3 wins from the loss of Monta Ellis for half the season.
+2 wins from the arrival of Andris Biedrins.
+1 win from improvement from Brandan Wright.
-1 win because Steven Jackson (who might have been one of the top five players in the league for a 10-12 game stretch early last year) overachieved.

This year: 39-43.

4- Sacramento: Let’s face it, the Kings are the Bucks of the Western Conference. Small market, not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to be comical, not interesting enough for anyone to care about them except their fans. After several years of weaseling their way out from under the remnants of Chris Webber’s contract, the Kings have wound up with a strange roster that contains Kevin Martin and every conceivable type of big man (except for a good one). You’ve got an unqualified bust (Shelden Williams), a total mystery rookie (Jason Thompson), a once-effective big man who completely lost it two years ago (Brad Miller), a moderately effective player who is on the “league’s most overpaid” short list (Kenny Thomas), and a big man who is so brittle he refused to do the mandatory training camp fitness tests (Spencer Hawes – he hurt his knee running suicides in camp last year, so he refuses to to them this year). And I almost forgot the ultimate example of a fluke season in a contract year getting a midlevel deal (Mikki Moore)Unfortunately, Shareef Abdur-Rahim (“good guy, consummate pro who has the reverse Midas Touch – whenever he arrives on a new team they immediately go to hell”) had to retire this offseason. Reggie Theus and Larry Krystkowiak seemed to have similar problems relating with their players in their rookie seasons as head coaches, but Theus managed to stick around for year two. I don’t think there will be any improvement.

Last year: won 38 games.

-4 wins from the combination of too old and too young frontcourt players.
+1 win from Kevin Martin’s improvement.
-5 wins from the loss of Ron Artest.
+3 wins from the offense running better than with Ron Artest going one-on-one all night.

This year: 33-49.

5- LA Clippers: At first glance, it looks like Elton Brand really screwed over the Clippers. After adding Baron Davis and getting a breakout season from Chris Kaman, it appeared the Clippers were a healthy Brand away from making a run at 50 wins. But then Brand spurned the Clippers and headed off to Philly for less money. However, we might not know the whole story. Everyone knows the Clippers are still the Clippers – which means having the most screwed up front office in the game. For everything we hear about involving Donald Sterling and Elgin Baylor, there are probably a dozen things we don’t – but Brand would know about them all. He had probably had enough of depending on that crew to put together a winner. Meanwhile, I get the feeling that without much of a chance to win and being back at home in LA, Baron Davis (who is interested in getting into film production) won’t be paying much attention on the court within half a season. One bright note? Since Brand was hurt all last season, losing him won’t hurt their record this year compared to last.

Last year: 23 wins.

+6 wins from Baron Davis.
-2 wins from the mismatched Camby/Kaman combo (and the fact that Kaman likely overachieved last year).
-2 wins because they might as well give minutes to Eric Gordon even if he isn’t ready.
-2 wins because they added professional team-killer Ricky Davis.

This year: 23-59.

Enough about the Bucks. Time to look at what’s going on among the good teams, and preview the first round of the playoffs.

Instead of thinking about how teams have played throughout the whole season, I’m a little more interested in how they are playing now. So I calculated IPM power rankings for the last six weeks of the season, which gives a good picture of which series’ might be the most competetive, and where potential upsets may lie.

If you are not familiar with IPM (as I recently learned that my friend Mike Headd is not, despite his having read the blog for nearly a year), it is my proprietary player ranking calculation. IPM stands for Impacts Per Minute, and more about the methodology is available here. I update IPM rankings for all players weekly (here) as well as team power rankings (here). All of this information is also avaliable through the links on the right side of the page.

I’m writing the preview under the assumption that the playoff matchups will not change in the next couple of days. If they do then I will update them accordingly.

Listed next to the team names are each team’s power rank for their offense, defense and overall for the last six weeks. The information is also given here.

On to the preview:

Eastern Conference

1 vs 8. Boston (#4 Offense, #1 Defense, #2 Overall) vs. Atlanta (#9 Offense, #18 Defense, #16 Overall): Welcome back to the big time, Hawks. Blink and you will miss it. Obviously the Celtics completely outclass Atlanta in this series, and it looks to be a 4-0 sweep.

4 vs 5. Cleveland (#13 Offense, #9 Defense, #10 Overall) vs. Washington (#12 Offense, #15 Defense, #14 Overall): The Cavs haven’t really jelled as much as I thought they would since their deadline trades, only going 13-12. They have, however, played a little better than their record, as my numbers say they have underachieved by two games. Washington is struggling to reintegrate Gilbert Arenas into their rotation, and the combination of home court advantage and LeBron James should make this series a pretty easy Cleveland win. I say the Cavs in 5.

3 vs. 6. Orlando (#20 Offense, #6 Defense, #13 Overall) vs. Toronto (#10 Offense, #13 Defense, #12 Overall): This is an interesting matchup — I feel that Orlando has overachieved all season and Toronto has underachieved. They come into this series as an even matchup, but I feel that the point guards will decide this series — and I think that Toronto has a huge advantage there. I’m calling the upset here — Raptors in six.

2 vs. 7. Detroit (#8 Offense, #3 Defense, #3 Overall) vs. Philadelphia (#11 Offense, #11 Defense, #9 Overall): The only Eastern Conference matchup that features two top ten teams over the last six weeks, the Sixers could make some noise against Detroit. However, I think that the Pistons’ veteran savvy will carry this one pretty easily. Pistons in 5.

Western Conference

1 vs 8. LA Lakers (#2 Offense, #12 Defense, #4 Overall) vs. Denver (#3 Offense, #29 Defense, #19 Overall): Despite getting the edge over Golden State by beating them this week, the Nuggets are staggering to the finish line. Recent losses to Seattle and Sacramento highlight the absolute defensive collapse that they are suffering as they abandon that end of the floor to concentrate on scoring. Their home court advantage will win them a game or two, but they cannot seriously challenge Kobe and the Lakers. Lakers in six.

4 vs 5. Utah (#1 Offense, #4 Defense, #1 Overall) vs. Houston (#15 Offense, #5 Defense, #7 Overall): Utah has been the best team in the league for several months, but it hasn’t been borne out in their record, as they have underachieved by 5 games in the last six weeks. The problem is that they are simply dominant at home (36-4) but subpar on the road (17-23). That makes home court advantage the deciding factor in this series, which will be up in the air until the final day. Houston has one more game left than Utah, giving them an edge on getting home court. Even without Yao, the Rockets have been one of the best teams of the second half this season, and maybe this finally is the year that T-Mac finally gets out of the first round. My prediction? Lets see who gets home court advantage. Either way this will be the best first round series (which is saying somethng) and whoever is at home for game seven will prevail.

3 vs. 6. San Antonio (#23 Offense, #2 Defense, #6 Overall) vs. Phoenix (#7 Offense, #14 Defense, #11 Overall): Now the playoffs begin and the Spurs turn it on. One reason their numbers look so bad is that they limit Manu Ginobli’s minutes so much in the regular season. Once he starts playing a little more, look for them to get that much better. Meanwhile, I think that the Suns’ acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal will be exposed as a mistake in the playoffs — in the last six weeks their offensive and defensive rankings have all declined from their full season rankings. Spurs in seven.

2 vs. 7. New Orleans (#5 Offense, #7 Defense, #5 Overall) vs. Dallas (#6 Offense, #10 Defense, #8 Overall): After the acquisition of Jason Kidd, this is the worst possible matchup for Dallas. Kidd couldn’t stay in front of Tony Parker in the finals six years ago, what makes Dallas think he can check Chris Paul now? Meanwhile, the Mavs traded away their best matchup against Paul, Devin Harris, and in the process fell from the #3 seed to the #7. This is actually a pretty close matchup with two top-ten teams, but the Hornets are simply a little better at both ends of the court. Hornets in seven.

I’n not going to call the second round, but I guess I should give my finals prediction: Boston over San Antonio.

Without much new Bucks news to report, it’s tim to look at the rest of the league. The trade deadline this season brought several interesting moves that changed the landscape of this NBA season drastically. What happened to the whole “NBA GM’s are afraid to take any risks” label? It sure disappeared this season. But who won and who lost?

To try and put each teams’ moves in perspective, I looked at how the overall IPM’s of each team changed before and after each move. IPM (impacts per minute), in case you are not familiar, is my proprietary statistical player ranking method. It gives a good picture of how a player’s overall game influences his value on the court. The methodology is available here, player performance to date is available here, and team power rankings are available here. This information is always available through the links on the right side of this page, under the heading “IPM Data”.

To calculate the impact that trades had on a team, I averaged the IPM scores for each teams’ top 8 players both before and after the trade deadline. By calculating the percentage change in the data, one can surmise how a team’s prospects have changed. It’s not an absolute judgment, but a very good starting point.

On to the reviews:

The Losers:

Memphis: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.754; Post-deadline IPM, 0.678 (-10.1%).
Traded Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Assorted Beads and Trinkets, and Jason Collins.
While the Gasol trade was a total joke considering how little they got back, it was the right thing to do. They weren’t going anywhere with Gasol, so it was time to start over. Given the unstable situation this team is in, getting cap space and a bunch of draft picks is the best thing for them, since they weren’t in any position to try and win anything for years anyway.

Seattle: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.737; Post-deadline IPM, 0.711 (-3.6%).
Traded Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Kurt Thomas for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Donyell Marshall, Adrian Griffin, and Ira Newble.
Impressive job by Sam Presti to manage to acquire only one player who would fit into their top 8 (Barry), and he was promptly waived. The interesting thing here is that Presti made deals that he didn’t have to (he doesn’t save significant money and will still have cap room coming) and he received players he didn’t need in order to help out San Antonio and Cleveland , the two NBA teams that have employed him in the past. Remember how Greg Popovich was whining that the league should have a “fairness committee” or something to strike down the Gasol trade? I don’t think he’s complaining any more.

Houston: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.842; Post-deadline IPM, 0.813 (-3.5%).
Traded Kirk Snyder, Mike James and Bonzi Wells for Bobby Jackson and Gerald Green.
I think the numbers lie here. Houston didn’t lose much. Credit Daryl Morey for taking the opportunity to rid his locker room of some headaches, even though the team has been playing exceptionally well. James and Wells were putting up decent per-minute numbers but weren’t playing all that much, and by adding Jackson they roll the dice on yet another backup point guard. Green is a good gamble, especially since he now gets to learn from the player he is most often compared to, Tracy McGrady (the jury is out on whether that turns out to be a good thing).

Phoenix: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.807 (-2.5%).
Traded Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.
When I first heard of this move I thought it was a mistake for the Suns. Now I’ve seen them play with Shaq, and I’m convinced it was a colossal mistake. A team-killing mistake.
The trade doesn’t work on so many levels. I don’t understand the logic of wanting to improve their defense and rebounding and cut payroll, so their method of doing this was to trade their best defender and second best rebounder for a player who cannot defend or rebound any longer and is paid more and for longer. Meanwhile Shaq has not been able to stay healthy for more than 10 games at a time for years, and he now goes to a team whose coach has been derided for using too shallow a rotation for years? Incredibly, the Suns now only have nine players who average over seven minutes a game! I know Marcus Banks is terrible, but now they have to give his minutes to DJ Strawberry. Is that an improvement?
The whole “Marion is a superior player to O’Neal at this stage” argument aside, there’s another thing: for the Suns to make a deep playoff run they will have to play about 50 more games. In a conference that is so tightly bunched that a 5 game losing streak might knock you out of the playoffs altogether, what are the odds that Shaq will be able to stay healthy and contribute in most of those 50 games? 30%? 40%? To be charitable, 60%? Meanwhile, there’s a 95% chance Marion would be around for whatever the team needed from him.
I understand that Phoenix wasn’t happy with the team chemistry and blamed Marion (which is funny because the problem with Marion is that he blames everyone around him for all kinds of stuff , real and imaginary). But it would not surprise me at all if Phoenix misses the playoffs this season because of this trade.

Teams that Didn’t Change Much:

Chicago: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.765; Post-deadline IPM, 0.751 (-1.4%).
Traded Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin for Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons.
Sort of like Memphis, the Bulls weren’t going anywhere this season, and long-term this was a good move. The Ben Wallace signing was not working out and by trading his cap-killer contract for Hughes’, at least the Bulls now free up court time for Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas.

New Jersey: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.796; Post-deadline IPM, 0.786 (-1.3%).
Traded Jason Kidd, Antoine Wright and Jason Collins for Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, DeSagna Diop, and Stromile Swift.
Actually, New Jersey did a pretty good job considering they were trading a superstar. While Harris is no Kidd, he’s an up-and-coming player who recently signed a pretty reasonable contract extension. He’s certain to be better than Kidd two years from now. Diop was a nice acquisition, making up for the loss of Collins’ defense. I’m sure that they are pretty disappointed they didn’t move Vince Carter as well, but there has to be something to make their master plan of being under the cap in 2010 (for a run at LeBron James) more difficult.

Atlanta: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.759; Post-deadline IPM, 0.750 (-1.2%).
Traded Shelden Williams and Other Assorted Spare Parts for Mike Bibby.
Hey, look! Atlanta did something! And they got a point guard! This trade only shows up negative in the IPM because Bibby was coming back from thumb surgery a little slowly. This was an excellent move by Atlanta, as they got the player they needed, traded away four guys they didn’t, and dumped a huge draft bust in Williams. This trade should solidify their playoff position and an opportunity to get hammered by Boston in the first round.

Dallas: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.811; Post-deadline IPM, 0.817 (+0.8%).
Traded Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris and DeSagna Diop for Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright.
Between Jerry Stackhouse’s big mouth, Devean George’s obnoxious agent, an unnecessary $10 million in extra luxury tax payment, maybe Mark Cuban should have gotten the message: God thinks this is a bad trade for the Mavericks.
Enough has been written about “Jason Kidd is a great leader, general, blah blah blah” so that everyone forgets that he whined his way out of Dallas 10 years ago because he and Jim Jackson both wanted to date Toni Braxton. He’s fought with every coach he’s ever had and brought his personal problems to every team he’s been affiliated with.
I know that everyone loves playing with him, but Cuban just gave up a lot to acquire a guy who is 35 and was complaining about his contract before the trade. Also, Kidd’s shooting, never a strength, has slipped to 36% this season. He was still rebounding like a maniac (for a point guard), but it remains to be seen how that will hold up now that he’s on a team full of great rebounders.
I have one other question , who is supposed to guard Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chris Paul? Kidd couldn’t keep Parker out of the lane in the finals four years ago!
Honestly, the more I think about this trade the more I think that Jason Kidd offers such a marginal improvement to Dallas that they gave up way too much to get him.

Miami: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.752; Post-deadline IPM, 0.765 (+1.7%).
Traded Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
I thought this move would propel Miami firmly into mediocrity (which is a big improvement from “laughingstock”) but at 0-5 since the trade, that sure hasn’t happened. I’m glad that Miami did this trade because it will give an interesting look at whether Marion truly is a great, underrated player (as most stats analysts have said for years) or just a product of the Phoenix system who was made great by Steve Nash. When you look at the ratio of dollars per minute played, though, this was a great move by Miami, and probably their last chance to get rid of Shaquille O’Neal before he could barely play any longer.

The Winners:

San Antonio: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.850 (+2.7%).
Traded Brent Barry and Francisco Elson for Kurt Thomas.
Got to love Phoenix’s roster management. They trade away Kurt Thomas to get his salary off their books, and then decide they need to make a panic trade because Thomas was the only player they had to match up with Tim Duncan. Meanwhile, the Spurs nab Thomas for themselves, and now they are the ones with a fresh body to throw at Shaq, Yao, Chandler, Bynum and Camby in the playoffs.
The rich get richer.

New Orleans: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.772; Post-deadline IPM, 0.794 (+2.8%).
Traded Bobby Jackson for Bonzi Wells and Mike James.
This was a funny trade for Houston and New Orleans. The Rockets , a division rival — gave the Hornets exactly what they needed (bench scoring from multiple positions) and took what the Hornets don’t need (a backup point guard) in return. You almost have to ask: What’s the catch?
Looks like Houston sure was desperate to rid themselves of those guys, but when a team has a great point guard like Chris Paul to boost everyone else’s stats, that sort of locker room whining probably disappears in a hurry.
With the West so bunched up and every team a 5-game losing streak away from falling out of the playoffs altogether, the Hornets needed to make a move like this to ensure they have enough firepower. The surprise team of the regular season might be ready for a deep playoff run now.

Los Angeles Lakers: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.818; Post-deadline IPM, 0.848 (+3.7%).
Traded Nobody They Wanted and Two Draft Picks That Will be in the Late 20′s for Pau Gasol.
What’s amazing is that Kwame Brown was only the 12th best player on the Lakers in the first place, and they turned him into a multiple-time all-star. What more can be said about this deal? Once Andrew Bynum returns then this team is immediately one of the top two or three in the West. The only thing that should be able to stop the Lakers from at least reaching the Conference Finals would be Kobe Bryant’s injured finger becoming worse.

Cleveland: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.755; Post-deadline IPM, 0.803 (+6.4%).
Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons for Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Sczcerbiak, and Delonte West.
How bad was the non-LeBron portion of the Cavs’ roster before the deadline? Every player they added became one of their top 8 by IPM, and one of those was Ben Wallace!
It’s really incredible how pathetic that team was before the break, and amazing that LeBron was able to carry them to the finals this season. Now, even with Boston and Detroit in the picture, they might be able to get back there this season.
Suddenly their roster has become deep and well-composed. Wallace still has value as a team defender, Smith is a nice all-around player who is a good complement for Varejao, and Delonte West suddenly becomes a valuable piece with the injury to Daniel Gibson.
But Sczcerbiak is the key here , he’s the shooter than the Cavaliers have been seeking for years, and while he can’t guard a chair, he is surrounded by A-level defenders in James, Varejao, Ilgauskas and Wallace.

Thanks to the trade deadline, the Eastern Conference has three powers now.

Compared to the bustling rest of the Western Conference, the Pacific Division is the sleepy suburb. That is, a suburb run by the producers of “Desperate Housewives.” They may look like five teams with stable rosters and slow offseasons with little change, but behind closed doors there is enough turmoil and drama to make one sometimes wonder how these teams even manage to take the court.

1: Phoenix: Am I the only one who felt that last year was supposed to be Phoenix’s year? They had an incredible run in the regular season, and their series against San Antonio was setting up to be a great one when it was derailed by a brutally officiated game 3 (led by Tim Donaghy , take a look at what ESPN’s Bill Simmons had to say the day after the game) and the game 5 fight which led to the suspension of Amare Stoudemire for game 6.

I want to say two things about the Stoudemire suspension. First, nobody has mentioned the role Steve Nash played in all that , he got bumped for sure, but Horry hit him in an obvious fouling situation and Nash was cutting toward the baseline, so Nash clearly knew he was going to be fouled (otherwise he might have just run right out of bounds). So instead of going down like a soccer player, why not just brace yourself for the contact, keep your mouth shut, go to the line, and ice the game? Now, Nash had been getting hammered all series and getting no calls (thanks again, in part, to Donaghy, plus the nut shot he took from Bruce Bowen), but that was a really bad time to let the frustration boil over , that foul locked the game up for Phoenix. Also, I think the leaving the bench rule should be changed for the playoffs , if a player takes a couple of steps toward the court and then immediately turns back (as Stoudemire and Diaw did) then the suspension should be held over until the next season. Walking onto the court, or even defiantly standing there and staring out, makes the ref’s jobs of defusing the fight more difficult and a suspension is warranted, but the refs didn’t have to blink in their direction in that incident.

Anyway, the Phoenix Suns have been walking a fine line for years now. Despite having 3 max or near-max contracts on the books (Marion, Stoudemire and Nash) owner Robert Sarver has aggressively tried to stay under the luxury tax and gun for a championship at the same time. This has meant that strange things have been going on in the Phoenix front office for years, from outright selling draft picks to attempting to trade their best players.

Team chemistry is a fickle thing, and Phoenix’s has yo-yoed all over the place since Nash arrived. On one hand, having the best distributor in the league has kept everyone happy while things are going well, but there have been constant stories about who Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion have truly been playing for , the team or themselves. Stoudemire’s attitude has bounced back and forth throughout his career. The guy actually nicknamed himself STAT, and there has to be some sort of a red flag raised considering that his own agent fired him after his rookie season , how hard can it be to negotiate a max contract for him and take 10% of $100 million? Last year Jack McCallum’s book “7 Seconds or Less” blew the lid off of Shawn Marion’s personality. Apparently he’s incredibly oversensitive and constantly feels disrespected by the team and everyone else around him, and a lot of the coaching staff’s energy is expended toward keeping him satisfied. All of this comes despite Marion being the highest paid player on the team, playing the most minutes on the team, getting the second most shots, and being a 4-time all-star. Predictably, he didn’t react too well to the rumored trades that had him going to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko or Minnesota for Kevin Garnett (to Stoudemire’s credit, he didn’t seem to care that he was almost exiled to Atlanta) and Marion came to camp feeling unwanted and demanding a trade. That whole issue is supposed to have been defused, but those chemistry problems tend to fester and erupt at the wrong time.

The other problem with the composition of the Phoenix roster is their handling of draft picks. They have spent years amassing picks (particularly from the Joe Johnson and Stephon Marbury deals) but then selling them off as a way to keep down long term payroll obligations. Case in point is the Kurt Thomas deal this offseason , Phoenix sent Thomas and two future firsts to Seattle for a trade exception and a second round pick! Phoenix saves $16 million in the deal (Thomas’ salary plus the luxury tax) but they dumped a pair of valuable picks. These sort of low first rounders are the best way to cost-effectively fill out your bench, so the Suns’ attempts to reduce salary actually hurts their long-term cost structure, because instead of having $1-$2 million contributors on the end of the bench they have to chase free agents , and the decent ones cost 3-4 year guaranteed contracts, but, as Marcus Banks has proved, without the guaranteed performance. If the Suns hadn’t sold the picks that became Luol Deng four years ago or Rajon Rondo last year then how differently would their team look? For $2 million more than they are paying Grant Hill they could have Deng and Rondo, would not have wasted $25 million on Marcus Banks, and could have let Diaw walk instead of giving him his ridiculous $9 million/year. Plus, they could have kept Thomas’ post defense , if nothing else, he’s useful against Tim Duncan , keeping their payroll right where it is now and also having a better team. Lets put it this way , if any other team sold their picks as willfully as the Suns do, their fans would stage a mutiny. I don’t know why the Phoenix fans don’t, either.

With all those negatives taken into account, this is still the most exciting, fun team to watch in the entire NBA. They have 4 incredibly dynamic players in Stoudemire, Marion, Nash and Barbosa and run the league’s most entertaining offense. They can run all over anyone in the league at any time and while their frontcourt isn’t very deep, they do have a solid 7-man rotation (although Mike D’Antoni is often criticized for not using his bench enough and playing his starters far too many minutes).

The Suns are chasing a championship and while they are one of the top 5 contenders I don’t think it’s going to happen for them this season, and I feel that their failure to restock their roster with young talent will cause their window to close soon. They should win over 55 again this season, but I think that the size of teams like San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Denver will end the Suns’ season prematurely once again.

2: Golden State: Boy, was I glad to see that Warrior playoff run come to an end. I couldn’t understand why everybody was acting like they were the most exciting team ever , so they pulled an upset over a team who their coach used to coach and who they had blown out twice at the end of the regular season (and beat a team, Dallas, that was not playing well at all at the end of the year). Big freaking deal. My problem with them was not the way they won, but the way they lost. Nearly every single game was a never-ending stream of complaining at the officials, and three of their seven playoff losses ended with ejections, cheap shots, and questions of whether Steven Jackson would get suspended for the following game.

After creating a roster filled with absolutely ridiculous contracts, Chris Mullin did a good job of digging himself out of a luxury tax-filled hole. Trading away Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy last season was a good start, and sending Jason Richardson to Charlotte for cap relief and Brandan Wright finished the job. Now the Warriors could theoretically drop below the salary cap as soon as next season if Baron Davis opts out and they let him walk (big if, but still).

However, the loss of Richardson will really hurt. Their replacement is rookie Marco Belinelli, who shot the ball extremely well in the summer league, but who’s shooting percentages in Italy suggest that he may have just been on a hot streak. If Belinielli struggles than they will make use of a dual point guard lineup with Baron Davis and Monta Ellis on the floor together. Wright has potential, but needs to gain weight and is probably a year or two away from making much of a difference. That’s a problem because Don Nelson’s run-run-run style requires a deep bench. Even last year in the playoffs, when most teams shorten their bench, Nelson gave big minutes to Matt Barnes, Ellis, and Mickael Pietrus.

The Warriors were better than their regular season record indicated last season because injuries meant that they only played about 15 regular season games with their whole team. They do have a roster made up of players either in their prime , Davis, Jackson , or just entering it , like Ellis and Andris Biedrins , and should be an exciting 45 win team this year. Hopefully they can just shut up and play.

3: LA Lakers: Kobe Bryant is a difficult, headstrong guy who is selfish and trying to quit on his team by forcing his way out of town. But, you know what? He’s right about something. The rest of this roster completely sucks.

The Lakers have managed to put together a borderline luxury tax team while only having 3 guys getting paid over the midlevel , and one of them is Kwame Brown! Of the rest of the roster, only Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher have done anything of note in the league. Most of the Lakers’ personnel moves border on the incomprehensible, but apparently part of the problem is too many cooks in the kitchen. Much has been made of the Lakers passing on a Jason Kidd trade last year because it would have cost them Andrew Bynum. Apparently the trade was kyboshed by the son of owner Jerry Buss, Jim, because he feels he “discovered” Bynum and wanted to keep his pet project around. Well, that’s supposed to be why they have GM’s , to figure out what is in the teams’ best interests. Building for the future with Kobe is not a wise move. John Holllinger had a great point about Bryant a couple of years ago , that even though he is in his prime at 29 years old, he may age faster than some great players. He has played big minutes since he was 19, plus about an extra seasons worth of playoff games. The wear and tear might catch up to Kobe faster than it did many other players. He will still be good for a long time, but his days as a #1 team-carrying leader may be numbered. If you have a chance to get Jason Kidd for Bynum “¦ well, Kobe said it best in the “parking lot video” this summer “¦ “we’re talking about Jason Kidd here!”

But the Lakers have made plenty of other dumb moves that you can’t blame on the owners’ son. Like signing Vladimir Radmanovic to a 5 year deal, for instance. They had a cheaper, better, younger player in Brian Cook who plays the same position and does the same things. Then they extended Cook’s deal too, so the two of them can share the backup power forward role until 2010. Then, when they had the chance to undo their mistake and try to void Radmanovic’s contract because he went snowboarding in the middle of the season (in direct violation of his contract) and separated his shoulder, and then lied to the team about it; they didn’t bother.

On top of this mess, Phil Jackson seems to have sided with Kobe vs. the Lakers management team and wants the rest of the roster to be shaken up. He’s right. The best case scenario for this team is about 44 wins and barely getting into the playoffs, the worst case is Kobe simply mailing it in (which he has done before) and the Lakers completely imploding. A fair Kobe trade would be virtually impossible to dream up, and the downward spiral of the Lakers’ talent level would increase should that occur. I think that all the issues surrounding the team (and the awfulness of the roster) drag them down to 33 wins.

4: Sacramento: Wow, did things get bad here in a hurry. Their roster got old, as they looked that their three former all-stars Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, and Ron Artest as the makings of a playoff-caliber team and filled in the holes with veterans. However, Shareef Abdur-Rahim had a down year and John Salmons predictably wasn’t any good. Miller’s game completely fell apart, and one has to wonder if he has lost a step for good. Since Eric Musselman apparently couldn’t cut it as coach of this bunch, the Maloof’s let him go and brought in Reggie Theus, whose head coaching experience consists of 2 years at New Mexico State and 5 episodes of the “Saved By The Bell” rip-off “Hang Time”.

Regarding Ron Artest, I think the most impressive statistic about him last year would have to be that the Sacramento police responded to 5 different 911 calls from his house between August, 2006 and March, 2007. Less seriously, though, is the fact that he is not the same player he was a few years ago. I remember watching a Bulls at Lakers game about 7 years ago , when the Lakers were winning titles and the Bulls had Khalid El-Amin as their starting point guard , and I knew the Bulls would win because Shaq was out and Chicago had Artest to shut Kobe down, which he did with ease. However, while Artest has a reputation as a great two-way threat, that’s really not the case. He was never a great offensive player , considering that he was great defensive player, he was a pretty good offensive player. There’s a difference. And that difference shows up now that the defensive rules have been changed to eliminate contact on the perimeter. That was Artest’s game right there , lean on guys all night long. Now that he can’t do that he’s just a great post defender but regular defender outside the paint and a pretty decent rebounder for his position, while being a fairly low-percentage shooter who is a kind of black hole with the ball.

The Kings did get a bust-out season from Kevin Martin, who turned in a highly efficient 20 ppg on 47% shooting. The Kings signed him to a sensible 5 year, $55 million contract extension, earning a collective “who?” from most casual NBA fans, who have still never heard of the guy. Sacto also blundered by signing Mikki Moore to a 3 year deal, who’s career season last year at the age of 31 screams “fluke” in about 10 different languages.

It’s going to be a long year in Sacramento, as management has to decide whether this veteran group is coming or going (hint: they are going) and whether or not to blow it up and rebuild (Yes! Rebuild!) . This is a squad that’s not going to win much, nor will it be very interesting doing it. 31 wins will be about right for them.

5: LA Clippers: Well, this is more like it. Bad personnel decisions and even worse luck have brought the Clips back to where they belong, the bottom of the West.

First the tragically bad luck: last season’s gruesome knee injury to Shaun Livingston has put his career in doubt, and Elton Brand will miss half of the season with a ruptured achillies tendon.

Corey Maggette suffered through a season of trade rumors and a lack of playing time either caused by an inability to get along with coach Mike Dunleavy, an inability to buckle down on defense, or a little of both. It seems almost guaranteed that Sam Cassell’s days as a Clipper are numbered, as he is in the final year of his deal and on a team going nowhere, so sending him to a contender that needs a point guard , Denver, Boston or Houston , sounds like a logical move. That pretty much covers it for the Clippers’ best 4 players.

Just to be able to get by, LA will need the same sort of out-of-position yeoman’s work that the Bucks got from Ruben Patterson last year, and for Chris Kaman to seriously upgrade his game. This roster has absolutely no chance before Brand gets back, and even if they still have Cassell in uniform when Brand does return, still isn’t a .500 team. As it is, 25 wins and the most ping pong balls in the lottery is a likely destination.

• My dream of seeing Ray Allen and Allen Ray play on the court at the same time won’t happen. Allen Ray has taken a contract with a team in Europe.
• Gilbert Arenas is on a crazy quest to make 100,000 shots.
• Smush Parker has gone to Miami. Lakers fans actually seem happy about this.
• Caron Butler owns a Burger King now. Make that 18 of them between a group of pro athletes.
• Matt Geiger wants to build a helicopter pad on his house, his neighbors don’t want him to.
• Advice on how to cover a point spread if you’re a ref.