The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

The preview train rolled on into the NBA’s Central Division this week.

Chicago Bulls
Nels: Give Me The Rock
Matt: Blog-a-Bull

Cleveland Cavaliers
Rock: Waiting For Next Year
FTS: Fear The Sword
David Friedman: 20 Second Timeout
Amar Panchmatia: Cavalier Attitude

Detroit Pistons
Brian Spencer: Empty the Bench
Natalie Sitto: Need4Sheed.com
Matt Watson: Detroit Bad Boys

Indiana Pacers
Tom: Indy Cornrows

Milwaukee Bucks
Brett Boyer: The Bratwurst
Frank Madden: BrewHoop

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6′7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6′11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

It’s funny how in all the major sports the balance of power has shifted so dramatically away from the conferences and leagues that the teams we root for in Wisconsin. The American League makes the National League look like AAA. The AFC thoroughly dominates the NFC (well, until it really matters). And the Eastern Conference is so ridiculously bad compared to the Western Conference that a 35 win team will make the playoffs this season.

And that team will be the Milwaukee Bucks.

Laugh if you must. Say “homer!” if you will. But it’s highly likely. Of the seven teams scrambling for the final two playoff spots in the East, the Bucks have three advantages. They have the most favorable schedule. They have the most home games. And they have the best home-court record.

The Bucks have 20 home games remaining and 14 road games. To this point in the season they have won 62% of their home games and 18% of their road games, so that projects to 33 wins for the season. If every other team’s home/road percentages remain constant then the Bucks would tie with Indiana for the ninth spot, missing out on the playoffs by two games.
How can the Bucks get from 18 to 35 wins in the season’s final 34 games?

I looked at the remaining schedule and divided each game into four categories: games the Bucks will definitely get blown out in, the games they should lose, the “winnable” games, games they absolutely should win, and games I can’t figure out.

Blowout losses: at Dallas, Detroit, at Detroit, San Antonio, Utah, Boston (2), at Boston, at Toronto

Should lose: New Orleans, Denver, at New Jersey, at Washington (2), Orlando, at Chicago

Winnable: at Indiana (2), at Atlanta, New York (2), Indiana, Chicago

Should Win: at Memphis, LA Clippers, Seattle, at Miami, Miami, at Minnesota

I’m not sure: Cleveland (2), Portland, Philadelphia, New Jersey

So if the Bucks win the games they should win and lose the games they should lose that puts them at 31 wins with 5 “not sure” games. So figure they lose two of the games they should win, steal two games they should lose and go 3-2 in the five toss-up games. That’s 34 wins.

Now, will that be enough?

One thing the Bucks have going for them is that they are done with their West coast trips. They only have two games remaining West of the Mississippi (at Dallas and at Minnesota) so they don’t have much travel remaining. How do the other challengers for the last spots stack up?

Atlanta: Currently holding the #8 spot, they have the inside track at finishing at #7. They have one more road game than home remaining, and have a road trip coming up next week that sees them with six west coast games (and a home game sprinkled in there). This team actually seems to be maturing into something halfway decent, and they should hold on to a playoff spot , as long as they can muster up the six road wins they need.

New Jersey: A recent nine game losing streak has this team is circling the drain. It now appears that Jason Kidd won’t get traded (as Dallas has backed out of the bidding) and that Vince Carter has already decided that with a new contract it isn’t worth it to him to try very hard. They also have a five game west coast trip coming up in March. While I could see this team collapsing, they have always given the Bucks fits , and the April 12 Bucks-Nets game could be the final determinant of which of these teams gets the 8 seed.

Indiana: The Pacers have a favorable schedule , 20 home games to 15 road games, and their only west coast run is a quick jaunt to lose at Houston and San Antonio. But the difference between them and the Bucks is that the Pacers have been lousy at home this season (43%). They have been playing at the second highest pace in the league all season but use a short bench (only six players average 20+ minutes, but does Kareem Rush really count as a player?). A late season fade would not be a surprise as exhaustion catches up to Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley and injury fells Jermaine O’Neal. The Pacers are currently on a 1-8 streak in games without O’Neal.

Chicago: The one team of the bunch that I’d worry about being able to “turn it on” and get hot, but they haven’t shown any sort of ability to do that thus far. They have a balanced home/away schedule the rest of the year, but have been poor both at home and on the road all season (43%/35%). I thought this team was a title contender, so obviously I am the last person to pass judgment on their prospects, but I feel that if any team out of this group might be able to get hot and make a run, this is it.

Philadelphia: How is it possible to win 39% of your home games? Despite the fact the Bucks have made them look like world-beaters twice, this Sixers team is awful.

Charlotte: They have an absolutely brutal schedule. 8 more road games than home, and they essentially spend all of March on an extended west coast trip that has a couple of random day trips back East for home games sprinkled in. The Bobcats have no chance with their schedule.

Doesn’t it make sense that the Bucks can catch either Atlanta or New Jersey and hold off the rest of the East? The Bucks might not be the best team, but they have a very realistic shot against the other contenders. For all the complaining about the Bucks roster, most of these other teams have it much worse.

Of course the only problem is that should the Bucks get the 8 seed, they will be the answer of a trivia question for a long time: “Who was the worst team (by record) to ever get a playoff spot in the NBA?”

As far as I’m concerned, I hope the Bucks get the 8 seed instead of the 7. I’d rather see them get blown out by Boston twice than by Detroit.

So that’s it , I’m a believer. I have one more flare of optimism left in me. Barring a run of injuries, this team will be in the playoffs come April. That makes Tuesday night’s game against Memphis extremely important. Blow it against the Grizzlies and all bets are off.

Back in July I wrote a Central Division preview, and now it’s time for an update. My basic premise is the same: This division has 3 of the 4 best teams in the conference, and in the end the Bulls are going to be the Eastern Conference champions.

This article refers to IPM, which is available here.

1: Chicago: The Bulls survived their first “scare” of the season as Joe Smith finally played in the last 3 games of the preseason. However, that’s about as bad as it gets for them. This team is good, deep, and can match up with anyone.

The question everyone has about the Bulls is, “Where is the low-post scoring going to come from.” I think that is such a tired argument. While the Bulls don’t have an Eddy Curry, their offense is designed around their talent perfectly well. The offense is predicated on movement and doesn’t stagnate around a post player who needs his touches. This is a top-10 offense and will get plenty of inside points from their rotation of big men, plus the ever-expanding game of Luol Deng. The usefulness of Ben Wallace as a post player cannot be underestimated, either. Of course Wallace never shoots on inside plays, but he is an exceptionally good passer who can get touches and quickly get rid of the ball without the offense losing its flow. It’s not like the Bulls offense is simply whipping it around the perimeter. They get post touches, just not shots or points.

In my efforts to pinpoint one “bust out” player this season, all my numbers point to Tyrus Thomas. Thomas amassed an amazing number of rebounds, blocks and steals in his limited minutes last year, and his defense was spectacularly good. Thomas’ defensive IPM ranked as the 9^th best in all of basketball, and his combined IPM was third best on the Bulls last season. Clearly he has the defensive ability and the athleticism to be a star, he just needs the offensive game. Well, he has shot 54% from the field and 72% from the line in the preseason; both major improvements from last year. Watch out.

The one major worry is Ben Wallace , his game has obviously started to slip, as he has seen several years of declines in points, rebounds and blocks. However, some of his skills have remained in full effect , namely his ability to avoid committing fouls. He makes defense so much easier for his teammates because of his ability to challenge and harass shots without fouling, which frees up his teammates to play much tighter on their men , knowing that if they get beat, Wallace has their back. However, that cannot continue forever, and should Wallace suddenly have trouble staying on the floor, that could prove to be the Chicago achillies heel.

The Bulls have a lot going for them, but most of all is the consistency on the coaching staff and in the front office. The end result is a team that is extremely good, well-constructed, and ready to make a run to the finals. I call it a 55 win season.

2: Cleveland: I’m sure that the GM’s of every other NBA team are praying that the Cavs win their stare down with Dan Fegan over Anderson Varejao. Fegan and Varejao are demanding a $10 million/year contract, which would throw the Cavs well into the luxury tax realm and would set a precedent that no other GM wants to see: $10 million/year to a guy who averaged 6 points and 6 rebounds per game. But here’s the thing: in terms of how valuable he is to the Cavs, Varejao is worth that kind of money.

Varejao was the 8^th best defensive player in the game last season, by defensive IPM, and was the key to one of the best team defenses in the league. Defense was the real reason the Cavs made it to the finals last year , LeBron James was the only thing they had going for them on offense. Varejao came off the bench but was always on the court in the 4^th quarter, led the league in charges taken, and was an annoying pest that had a habit of coming up with big loose balls and offensive rebounds. This team needs him badly, because other than LeBron and about 20 good minutes a night from Zydrunas Ilgauskas then this team has nothing. Of course that’s not quite true , Drew Gooden is pretty effective offensively, and Daniel Gibson’s hot playoffs may not have been a fluke, but the overall talent level here is a problem.

I always felt that this team was set to take a step back as their best player had no offseason (yet again) and there’s no help on the roster for him, but without Varejao and (to a lesser extent) Sasha Pavlovic, who is also holding out, the Cavs will be looking at a much worse regular season. They’ll win 50 with Varejao, 45 if they don’t resign him or fail to do something else to bring in some help for LeBron.

3: Detroit: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this team looked old and slow at the end of the year. They hammered Orlando in round 1 of the playoffs, jumped all over the Bulls for 3 games, and then hit the proverbial wall. For a while it looked like the Bulls might be able to get back into the series; and then after 2 close wins, Cleveland lowered the boom on them.

The concern was how run down the Pistons lineup looked at the end of the playoffs. Chauncey Billups had a horrible postseason , which doesn’t bode well as he signed a new contract , and Rasheed Wallace typically had his mind on the officials more than the game, as he shot 5-14 and unsurprisingly got ejected from the season-ending loss after fouling out (in a nice show of team spirit, Richard Hamilton did the same thing). It’s not a good sign for the oldest starting 5 in the league to roll over like that. They also lost Chris Webber, and now depend on a tag-team of Nazr Mohammed and Antonio McDyess to man the middle. So who backs up the other 4 starters?

Joe Dumars is trying to remake the roster while still remaining competitive, so there isn’t much in the way of proven help on the bench. After Lindsey Hunter and Jason Maxiell, the bench is made up of rookies Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo. But the guy to watch out for is Amir Johnson.

Johnson turned pro out of high school a couple of years ago and was a second round pick. He’s a 6′9″, 210 pound forward who put up absolutely sick numbers in the NBDL and in very limited NBA minutes has performed well (he got only 2 games of 20+ minutes last year, but responded with double-doubles in both). He was a free agent this offseason, but the Pistons thought enough of him to resign him to a 3 year, $11 million contract. He’s the guy to watch for — you heard it here first.

I’m so sick of this team , constant whining at the officials, perpetual “we get disrespected by the media/fans/officials/coaching staff/caterers” complaining, and that dammed PA announcer “¦ This starting lineup is too old and the bench is too young, and this is the year that they slide. I hope I’m right. They are still a playoff team, but I don’t think they win more than 44.

4: Milwaukee: I’ll write a longer Bucks preview in a couple of days, but suffice it to say that this team is pretty much guaranteed the 4^th spot in the division. They could be anywhere from the 5^th to the 12^th best team in the conference, but they are sandwiched between three playoff teams and one rebuilding job. Anywhere from 32 to 42 wins will leave the Bucks in this spot.

5: Indiana: Larry Bird, are you still around here somewhere? The Pacers are stuck with the payroll of a team in a 3-year championship contention window ($52 million committed for 2009/10) but the talent level of a lottery team. It’s tough to rebuild when you owe over $100 million over the next 4 years to 3 players that nobody else would want , Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley.

The result of having a front office that either doesn’t know what it is doing or doesn’t know what it wants to do is this team: their best player is going around saying he wants to be traded, their big free agent signing is Travis Diener, and they brought 3 guys off their bench in their last preseason game that I have never heard of.

This team is going nowhere, and I think they will spend the season trying to figure out how good their young guys are (Danny Granger, Ike Diogu, and Shawne Williams) and how to get rid of everyone else.
My guess is that they remain somewhat competitive for a couple of months, pull the trigger on a Jermaine O’Neal trade, and crater after that. I’m looking for 32 wins this year.