The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

A roundup of the blogger previews on the net for the NBA’s Southwest Division.

Dallas Mavericks
Jake Kerr: Mavs Moneyball

Houston Rockets
grungedave and UofTOrange: The Dream Shake

Memphis Grizzlies
Joshua Coleman: 3 Shades of Blue

New Orleans Hornets
Rohan: At the Hive
ticktock6 & mW: Hornets Hype
Ryan Schwan & Ron Hitley: Hornets247.com

San Antonio Spurs
Graydon Gordian: 48 Minutes of Hell

Enough about the Bucks. Time to look at what’s going on among the good teams, and preview the first round of the playoffs.

Instead of thinking about how teams have played throughout the whole season, I’m a little more interested in how they are playing now. So I calculated IPM power rankings for the last six weeks of the season, which gives a good picture of which series’ might be the most competetive, and where potential upsets may lie.

If you are not familiar with IPM (as I recently learned that my friend Mike Headd is not, despite his having read the blog for nearly a year), it is my proprietary player ranking calculation. IPM stands for Impacts Per Minute, and more about the methodology is available here. I update IPM rankings for all players weekly (here) as well as team power rankings (here). All of this information is also avaliable through the links on the right side of the page.

I’m writing the preview under the assumption that the playoff matchups will not change in the next couple of days. If they do then I will update them accordingly.

Listed next to the team names are each team’s power rank for their offense, defense and overall for the last six weeks. The information is also given here.

On to the preview:

Eastern Conference

1 vs 8. Boston (#4 Offense, #1 Defense, #2 Overall) vs. Atlanta (#9 Offense, #18 Defense, #16 Overall): Welcome back to the big time, Hawks. Blink and you will miss it. Obviously the Celtics completely outclass Atlanta in this series, and it looks to be a 4-0 sweep.

4 vs 5. Cleveland (#13 Offense, #9 Defense, #10 Overall) vs. Washington (#12 Offense, #15 Defense, #14 Overall): The Cavs haven’t really jelled as much as I thought they would since their deadline trades, only going 13-12. They have, however, played a little better than their record, as my numbers say they have underachieved by two games. Washington is struggling to reintegrate Gilbert Arenas into their rotation, and the combination of home court advantage and LeBron James should make this series a pretty easy Cleveland win. I say the Cavs in 5.

3 vs. 6. Orlando (#20 Offense, #6 Defense, #13 Overall) vs. Toronto (#10 Offense, #13 Defense, #12 Overall): This is an interesting matchup — I feel that Orlando has overachieved all season and Toronto has underachieved. They come into this series as an even matchup, but I feel that the point guards will decide this series — and I think that Toronto has a huge advantage there. I’m calling the upset here — Raptors in six.

2 vs. 7. Detroit (#8 Offense, #3 Defense, #3 Overall) vs. Philadelphia (#11 Offense, #11 Defense, #9 Overall): The only Eastern Conference matchup that features two top ten teams over the last six weeks, the Sixers could make some noise against Detroit. However, I think that the Pistons’ veteran savvy will carry this one pretty easily. Pistons in 5.

Western Conference

1 vs 8. LA Lakers (#2 Offense, #12 Defense, #4 Overall) vs. Denver (#3 Offense, #29 Defense, #19 Overall): Despite getting the edge over Golden State by beating them this week, the Nuggets are staggering to the finish line. Recent losses to Seattle and Sacramento highlight the absolute defensive collapse that they are suffering as they abandon that end of the floor to concentrate on scoring. Their home court advantage will win them a game or two, but they cannot seriously challenge Kobe and the Lakers. Lakers in six.

4 vs 5. Utah (#1 Offense, #4 Defense, #1 Overall) vs. Houston (#15 Offense, #5 Defense, #7 Overall): Utah has been the best team in the league for several months, but it hasn’t been borne out in their record, as they have underachieved by 5 games in the last six weeks. The problem is that they are simply dominant at home (36-4) but subpar on the road (17-23). That makes home court advantage the deciding factor in this series, which will be up in the air until the final day. Houston has one more game left than Utah, giving them an edge on getting home court. Even without Yao, the Rockets have been one of the best teams of the second half this season, and maybe this finally is the year that T-Mac finally gets out of the first round. My prediction? Lets see who gets home court advantage. Either way this will be the best first round series (which is saying somethng) and whoever is at home for game seven will prevail.

3 vs. 6. San Antonio (#23 Offense, #2 Defense, #6 Overall) vs. Phoenix (#7 Offense, #14 Defense, #11 Overall): Now the playoffs begin and the Spurs turn it on. One reason their numbers look so bad is that they limit Manu Ginobli’s minutes so much in the regular season. Once he starts playing a little more, look for them to get that much better. Meanwhile, I think that the Suns’ acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal will be exposed as a mistake in the playoffs — in the last six weeks their offensive and defensive rankings have all declined from their full season rankings. Spurs in seven.

2 vs. 7. New Orleans (#5 Offense, #7 Defense, #5 Overall) vs. Dallas (#6 Offense, #10 Defense, #8 Overall): After the acquisition of Jason Kidd, this is the worst possible matchup for Dallas. Kidd couldn’t stay in front of Tony Parker in the finals six years ago, what makes Dallas think he can check Chris Paul now? Meanwhile, the Mavs traded away their best matchup against Paul, Devin Harris, and in the process fell from the #3 seed to the #7. This is actually a pretty close matchup with two top-ten teams, but the Hornets are simply a little better at both ends of the court. Hornets in seven.

I’n not going to call the second round, but I guess I should give my finals prediction: Boston over San Antonio.

Well the potential for the windfall profits from Yi Jianlian’s successes are highly documented, what effect has he had so far?

We’ve heard stories about the millions upon millions of viewers watching Bucks games in China. What kind of influence has it had locally?

At a recent game I took photos of the Chinese influence on advertising in the Bradley Center. The side of the court that is displayed during televised games (on the table with the announcers and rotating ads) is definitely targeting a much broader audience than the Bucks fan actually inside the Bradley Center.

Most of these are simply rewritten ads to include Mandarin, has their been an increase in advertisers or simply an increase in audience? Peak answered that question when they started advertising all over the Bradley Center this year after announcing a deal with the NBA and hiring Shane Battier as their spokesperson.

Peak ad

Briggs and Stratton ad

Kohler ad

There was a Rockwell Automation ad that I didn’t get a picture of, thankfully the Journal Sentinel did. They also indicated that for a minute of cumulative display time advertisers can expect to pay into six-figures.

Without much new Bucks news to report, it’s tim to look at the rest of the league. The trade deadline this season brought several interesting moves that changed the landscape of this NBA season drastically. What happened to the whole “NBA GM’s are afraid to take any risks” label? It sure disappeared this season. But who won and who lost?

To try and put each teams’ moves in perspective, I looked at how the overall IPM’s of each team changed before and after each move. IPM (impacts per minute), in case you are not familiar, is my proprietary statistical player ranking method. It gives a good picture of how a player’s overall game influences his value on the court. The methodology is available here, player performance to date is available here, and team power rankings are available here. This information is always available through the links on the right side of this page, under the heading “IPM Data”.

To calculate the impact that trades had on a team, I averaged the IPM scores for each teams’ top 8 players both before and after the trade deadline. By calculating the percentage change in the data, one can surmise how a team’s prospects have changed. It’s not an absolute judgment, but a very good starting point.

On to the reviews:

The Losers:

Memphis: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.754; Post-deadline IPM, 0.678 (-10.1%).
Traded Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Assorted Beads and Trinkets, and Jason Collins.
While the Gasol trade was a total joke considering how little they got back, it was the right thing to do. They weren’t going anywhere with Gasol, so it was time to start over. Given the unstable situation this team is in, getting cap space and a bunch of draft picks is the best thing for them, since they weren’t in any position to try and win anything for years anyway.

Seattle: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.737; Post-deadline IPM, 0.711 (-3.6%).
Traded Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Kurt Thomas for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Donyell Marshall, Adrian Griffin, and Ira Newble.
Impressive job by Sam Presti to manage to acquire only one player who would fit into their top 8 (Barry), and he was promptly waived. The interesting thing here is that Presti made deals that he didn’t have to (he doesn’t save significant money and will still have cap room coming) and he received players he didn’t need in order to help out San Antonio and Cleveland , the two NBA teams that have employed him in the past. Remember how Greg Popovich was whining that the league should have a “fairness committee” or something to strike down the Gasol trade? I don’t think he’s complaining any more.

Houston: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.842; Post-deadline IPM, 0.813 (-3.5%).
Traded Kirk Snyder, Mike James and Bonzi Wells for Bobby Jackson and Gerald Green.
I think the numbers lie here. Houston didn’t lose much. Credit Daryl Morey for taking the opportunity to rid his locker room of some headaches, even though the team has been playing exceptionally well. James and Wells were putting up decent per-minute numbers but weren’t playing all that much, and by adding Jackson they roll the dice on yet another backup point guard. Green is a good gamble, especially since he now gets to learn from the player he is most often compared to, Tracy McGrady (the jury is out on whether that turns out to be a good thing).

Phoenix: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.807 (-2.5%).
Traded Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.
When I first heard of this move I thought it was a mistake for the Suns. Now I’ve seen them play with Shaq, and I’m convinced it was a colossal mistake. A team-killing mistake.
The trade doesn’t work on so many levels. I don’t understand the logic of wanting to improve their defense and rebounding and cut payroll, so their method of doing this was to trade their best defender and second best rebounder for a player who cannot defend or rebound any longer and is paid more and for longer. Meanwhile Shaq has not been able to stay healthy for more than 10 games at a time for years, and he now goes to a team whose coach has been derided for using too shallow a rotation for years? Incredibly, the Suns now only have nine players who average over seven minutes a game! I know Marcus Banks is terrible, but now they have to give his minutes to DJ Strawberry. Is that an improvement?
The whole “Marion is a superior player to O’Neal at this stage” argument aside, there’s another thing: for the Suns to make a deep playoff run they will have to play about 50 more games. In a conference that is so tightly bunched that a 5 game losing streak might knock you out of the playoffs altogether, what are the odds that Shaq will be able to stay healthy and contribute in most of those 50 games? 30%? 40%? To be charitable, 60%? Meanwhile, there’s a 95% chance Marion would be around for whatever the team needed from him.
I understand that Phoenix wasn’t happy with the team chemistry and blamed Marion (which is funny because the problem with Marion is that he blames everyone around him for all kinds of stuff , real and imaginary). But it would not surprise me at all if Phoenix misses the playoffs this season because of this trade.

Teams that Didn’t Change Much:

Chicago: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.765; Post-deadline IPM, 0.751 (-1.4%).
Traded Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin for Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons.
Sort of like Memphis, the Bulls weren’t going anywhere this season, and long-term this was a good move. The Ben Wallace signing was not working out and by trading his cap-killer contract for Hughes’, at least the Bulls now free up court time for Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas.

New Jersey: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.796; Post-deadline IPM, 0.786 (-1.3%).
Traded Jason Kidd, Antoine Wright and Jason Collins for Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, DeSagna Diop, and Stromile Swift.
Actually, New Jersey did a pretty good job considering they were trading a superstar. While Harris is no Kidd, he’s an up-and-coming player who recently signed a pretty reasonable contract extension. He’s certain to be better than Kidd two years from now. Diop was a nice acquisition, making up for the loss of Collins’ defense. I’m sure that they are pretty disappointed they didn’t move Vince Carter as well, but there has to be something to make their master plan of being under the cap in 2010 (for a run at LeBron James) more difficult.

Atlanta: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.759; Post-deadline IPM, 0.750 (-1.2%).
Traded Shelden Williams and Other Assorted Spare Parts for Mike Bibby.
Hey, look! Atlanta did something! And they got a point guard! This trade only shows up negative in the IPM because Bibby was coming back from thumb surgery a little slowly. This was an excellent move by Atlanta, as they got the player they needed, traded away four guys they didn’t, and dumped a huge draft bust in Williams. This trade should solidify their playoff position and an opportunity to get hammered by Boston in the first round.

Dallas: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.811; Post-deadline IPM, 0.817 (+0.8%).
Traded Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris and DeSagna Diop for Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright.
Between Jerry Stackhouse’s big mouth, Devean George’s obnoxious agent, an unnecessary $10 million in extra luxury tax payment, maybe Mark Cuban should have gotten the message: God thinks this is a bad trade for the Mavericks.
Enough has been written about “Jason Kidd is a great leader, general, blah blah blah” so that everyone forgets that he whined his way out of Dallas 10 years ago because he and Jim Jackson both wanted to date Toni Braxton. He’s fought with every coach he’s ever had and brought his personal problems to every team he’s been affiliated with.
I know that everyone loves playing with him, but Cuban just gave up a lot to acquire a guy who is 35 and was complaining about his contract before the trade. Also, Kidd’s shooting, never a strength, has slipped to 36% this season. He was still rebounding like a maniac (for a point guard), but it remains to be seen how that will hold up now that he’s on a team full of great rebounders.
I have one other question , who is supposed to guard Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chris Paul? Kidd couldn’t keep Parker out of the lane in the finals four years ago!
Honestly, the more I think about this trade the more I think that Jason Kidd offers such a marginal improvement to Dallas that they gave up way too much to get him.

Miami: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.752; Post-deadline IPM, 0.765 (+1.7%).
Traded Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
I thought this move would propel Miami firmly into mediocrity (which is a big improvement from “laughingstock”) but at 0-5 since the trade, that sure hasn’t happened. I’m glad that Miami did this trade because it will give an interesting look at whether Marion truly is a great, underrated player (as most stats analysts have said for years) or just a product of the Phoenix system who was made great by Steve Nash. When you look at the ratio of dollars per minute played, though, this was a great move by Miami, and probably their last chance to get rid of Shaquille O’Neal before he could barely play any longer.

The Winners:

San Antonio: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.850 (+2.7%).
Traded Brent Barry and Francisco Elson for Kurt Thomas.
Got to love Phoenix’s roster management. They trade away Kurt Thomas to get his salary off their books, and then decide they need to make a panic trade because Thomas was the only player they had to match up with Tim Duncan. Meanwhile, the Spurs nab Thomas for themselves, and now they are the ones with a fresh body to throw at Shaq, Yao, Chandler, Bynum and Camby in the playoffs.
The rich get richer.

New Orleans: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.772; Post-deadline IPM, 0.794 (+2.8%).
Traded Bobby Jackson for Bonzi Wells and Mike James.
This was a funny trade for Houston and New Orleans. The Rockets , a division rival — gave the Hornets exactly what they needed (bench scoring from multiple positions) and took what the Hornets don’t need (a backup point guard) in return. You almost have to ask: What’s the catch?
Looks like Houston sure was desperate to rid themselves of those guys, but when a team has a great point guard like Chris Paul to boost everyone else’s stats, that sort of locker room whining probably disappears in a hurry.
With the West so bunched up and every team a 5-game losing streak away from falling out of the playoffs altogether, the Hornets needed to make a move like this to ensure they have enough firepower. The surprise team of the regular season might be ready for a deep playoff run now.

Los Angeles Lakers: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.818; Post-deadline IPM, 0.848 (+3.7%).
Traded Nobody They Wanted and Two Draft Picks That Will be in the Late 20′s for Pau Gasol.
What’s amazing is that Kwame Brown was only the 12th best player on the Lakers in the first place, and they turned him into a multiple-time all-star. What more can be said about this deal? Once Andrew Bynum returns then this team is immediately one of the top two or three in the West. The only thing that should be able to stop the Lakers from at least reaching the Conference Finals would be Kobe Bryant’s injured finger becoming worse.

Cleveland: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.755; Post-deadline IPM, 0.803 (+6.4%).
Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons for Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Sczcerbiak, and Delonte West.
How bad was the non-LeBron portion of the Cavs’ roster before the deadline? Every player they added became one of their top 8 by IPM, and one of those was Ben Wallace!
It’s really incredible how pathetic that team was before the break, and amazing that LeBron was able to carry them to the finals this season. Now, even with Boston and Detroit in the picture, they might be able to get back there this season.
Suddenly their roster has become deep and well-composed. Wallace still has value as a team defender, Smith is a nice all-around player who is a good complement for Varejao, and Delonte West suddenly becomes a valuable piece with the injury to Daniel Gibson.
But Sczcerbiak is the key here , he’s the shooter than the Cavaliers have been seeking for years, and while he can’t guard a chair, he is surrounded by A-level defenders in James, Varejao, Ilgauskas and Wallace.

Thanks to the trade deadline, the Eastern Conference has three powers now.

Well, the year’s most hotly anticipated sporting event in the world took place in Milwaukee on Saturday night. And it was kind of a bust. Yao wasn’t particularly effective, Yi was pretty bad, and both of them got dinged up in the game (Yao tweaking his ankle and Yi hurting his shoulder a little bit).

There might be a silver lining to the Yi injury, though — while it doesn’t seem to be anything serious, maybe it will give the Bucks an excuse to rest him for a couple of games, as his play has become worse and worse over the last few weeks (1-10 shooting last night, posting a miserable, team-killing 0.4504 IPM over his last 8 games).

The Rockets game should finally put to rest the idea that the Bucks are better without Michael Redd. Redd is just as capable of allowing 33 points to Tracy McGrady as Royal Ivey proved to be, but at least Redd wouldn’t only score two points himself. One thing I couldn’t understand was why Krystkowiak kept putting progressively smaller defenders on McGrady. Yi had him for a couple of posessions, then Ivey, then Williams, then Bell. Even when they doubled him I kept seeing what seemed like a steady stream of midgets running at T-Mac. Meanwhile, bigger players like Simmons and Mason were cruising along after Shane Battier. I realize that Battier is a perfectly good player who can kill you with his 3-point shooting and ability to crash the boards, but don’t you have to try to make him beat you instead of McGrady? Without Redd the McGrady matchup was a no-win situation, but it sure looked bad to see McGrady getting 4-6 inches on his defenders all night.

All things considered, this wasn’t that bad a game for the Bucks. Houston is a better team and came in on an 11-3 winning streak. For all my complaining, the Bucks really had no good option as far as trying to stop McGrady, so that was a big Rockets advantage. Considering that the Bucks shot 39%, allowed 50% shooting, were outrebounded by 13 and had to counter McGrady/Battier with Ivey/Bell/Simmons/Mason — losing by eight isn’t all that bad. At least Andrew Bogut slightly outplayed Yao.

Come one come all to comment on the game tonight between the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bucks go on the road tonight to take on the Cavs, who they have not beat in Cleveland since 2003. To put that in perspective Lebron James was still in high school and the only good Chinese basketball player was Yao Ming when the Bucks last won in Cleveland.

Can Redd, Mason, Bogut and company contain Lebron and a thin Cavs front court tonight? Tune in to FSN Wisconsin at 6:00 P.M. to find out.

Easy Yi visits Houston to play Yao Ming in a Rockets jersey for the first time tonight.

Comment and discuss the game as it happens right here.

The most hotly anticipated game in China in … I don’t know … a week tips off tonight as the Bucks take on Houston. Bucks fans might want to cover their eyes for this one — Houston is off to a really good 4-1 start, already having beaten San Antonio and also winning at Utah. Their only loss was at Dallas.

The one positive note is that Houston is using a sort of revolving door at power forward, mostly featuring Chuck Hayes and Luis Scola at the 4, so there’s a good chance that Yi will be able to loook good tonight.

In other Bucks news, Ramon Sessions has been sent down to the NBDL. No big surprise there. Wow, he’s going to be coached by Joey Meyer. There’s a name I haven’t heard in a while.

(This article refers to IPM, which is available here. IPM is described in the file, “What is IPM” and the article references “06-07 Team Predicted Wins”)

It’s time to start previewing the season! I’m going to cover one division every few days for the next month, and I’m starting with the toughest neighborhood in town (and home of the champs), the Southwest.

1: San Antonio: It’s becoming difficult to write about the Spurs , it seems like all they do every offseason is tinker a little with their bench, add 1 or 2 veterans who take less money than they could have gotten elsewhere, and add a European import that only they were smart enough to take a chance on. Well, that sums up this offseason as well.
They added Ime Udoka to spell and eventually replace the rapidly declining Bruce Bowen and traded Luis Scola for Vassilis Spanoulis, who was a highly effective guard in Greece before clashing badly with Jeff Van Gundy in Houston. The problem for the Spurs in this deal is that adding Scola to the Rockets makes them much better, but Spanoulis should fit in well as a backup to Tony Parker.

San Antonio may have only had the third best record in the league last year but they were the best team. According to my statistical measure, IPM, San Antonio underachieved by 3 games last year while both Phoenix and Dallas overachieved. (On a side note, I would guess that the Bucks were the only team to sweep the Spurs last year). It should be more of the same for San Antonio this year.

Typical boring old excellent Spurs. This is the best team and the best run organization in the NBA. The only thing they have to worry about is the age of their bench and the only thing they couldn’t withstand would be a serious injury to Tim Duncan. They return their top 9 players from last year (not counting Robert Horry, who returns but whose role has significantly diminished) and added a couple of potentially valuable parts. The Spurs should cruise to a 60 win season and I think they will win the championship again.

2: Dallas: The whole “Nowitzki shouldn’t have won the MVP because of his poor playoffs” argument drives me nuts. First of all, why does the perception of 6 poor games nullify the achievements of the previous 82? Secondly, Dirk wasn’t that bad , he averaged 20 ppg and 11.5 rpg in that series, and single-handedly won game 5 for the Mavs (down 9 with 3 minutes to go, a 3 possession stretch went Dirk 3-Dirk blocks a layup-Dirk 3-Dirk assist to Harris, and then Nowitzki made 4 free throws down the stretch to ice the game). The perception of Nowitzki having a bad series is masked by the fact that Avery Johnson’s coaching job was completely overmatched by Don Nelson. Nowitzki had 2 bad games in that series , game 1, when Nelson’s D was designed to keep the ball away from Dirk and Johnson never reacted, and game 6 when Dallas had no chance from the opening tip, losing by 25. Dirk was the MVP last year. Period.

The Nowitzki-blame game masked the real problem for Dallas last season , they weren’t nearly as good as their record. They overachieved by 10 games last season and, more importantly, seriously let up on defense at the end of the season. For the season I rank Dallas with the 10^th best offense and 2^nd best defense, but for the final couple of weeks of the season they fell off to the #26 offense and #7 defense. Part of this is normal energy conservation for a team heading into the playoffs, but the bottom line is that they weren’t playing hard (but still winning a bunch of close games) entering the playoffs and couldn’t get it going once they got there. That’s bad coaching.

What does it mean for this year? The Mavs did the right thing and didn’t shake things up, resigning Stackhouse and adding Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell when Minnesota bought him out. They are expecting a breakout season from Devin Harris, indicated by the fact that they signed him to a contract extension despite their long commitment to Jason Terry. The team has a lot of dead weight on the payroll ($23 million to Michael Finley and Shawn Bradley this season) but a good rotation that has 10 solid, established veterans. Avery Johnson has gotten the Mavs to play serious defense for him, and that fact combined with the urge to remove the stain of last seasons’ playoffs should keep this team playing hard all season.

However, they won’t win 67 again , you can’t overachieve like that two years in a row, especially while playing a schedule that is heavy on games with San Antonio and Houston. I’ll guess 59 wins.

3: Houston: Many people seem to have the Rockets as the sexy pick to topple the Spurs this year, but I have my doubts. I thought they could make a run last season, but this roster has lots of problems , namely too many variables for a championship contender. Of course, starting with Yao and McGrady is a great start, two of the top ten players in the game when they are healthy. However, Yao has never made it through a whole season, and McGrady’s chronic back problems make him day-to-day every single night. Shane Battier has locked down the small forward position, playing his usual excellent defense but suffered through a fairly poor year offensively. But the other two positions are huge question marks.

The Rockets added Luis Scola, who has been one of the best players in Europe for several years and have turned over the starting power forward position to him. He projects to be a solid addition, but honestly, who knows? Can you really depend on any rookie to contribute? Point guard is an even bigger mess. They have clearly tired of Rafer Alston, and brought in a truckload of potential replacements. Steve Francis and Mike James , who have only found success chucking up gobs of shots for bad teams , and Bob Sura (???) are the leading candidates to replace Alston, as well as first round pick Aaron Brooks.

Just for the heck of it, the Rockets primary bench scorer Bonzi Wells also returns, and presumably he intends to play this season instead of just sitting around because he can’t get along with his coach. Oh, one other change; Jeff Van Gundy gave up on the team and they brought in Rick Adleman to replace him.

So Houston begins this season with championship aspirations but only two “sure things” among its top 8 players , Battier and backup power forward Chuck Hayes (well, 3 if you include Dikembe Mutombo elbowing someone in the face) , while the starting lineup contains questions about the health of its best players, the ability of its power forward, the identity of its point guard, and the motivation of its bench scorer. At least when they changed coaches they went to Adleman, who runs a system that is completely different than Van Gundy’s both offensively and defensively. They will be more entertaining than they were last year, but I don’t think they will be better. 48 wins.

4: New Orleans: After two years in the friendly confines of Oklahoma City, the Hornets lose their incredible home-court advantage and return to the Big Easy, which greeted the team with a collective yawn when they were there before Hurricane Katrina. I think this team might be in for a shock , they aren’t as good as they looked the last couple of years.

They quickly lost Peja Stojakovic last season, but that may not have actually hurt them all that much , his game has really slipped, and he is massively overpaid. He has back problems and has reached an age where injuries and declining athleticism take their toll. They signed Morris Peterson to play alongside Peja, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that becomes more a signing to replace him. The frontcourt is a strength, where David West has established himself as an underrated, solid player and Tyson Chandler busted out in a big way.

However, I think that Tyson Chandler’s breakout was more about Chris Paul than Chandler himself. Chandler has always been a spectacular rebounder (averaging between 13.5 and 14.5 per 40 minutes ever since be turned 21) and dunker but is so clumsy with his hands and footwork that he could never create enough to improve his offensive game. That all changed with Paul dishing to him. Suddenly Chandler was getting free for 3-4 alley-oops per game, and his shooting percentage skyrocketed to almost 63%. But it’s not like Chandler was doing anything different (besides staying on the floor more than he had with the Bulls), he just had a point guard that could see scoring opportunities better than anyone else could.

Chris Paul is one of the best players in the game , a case could be made that he is the best pure point guard in the league right now , but I don’t think his greatness is enough to improve this teams prospects much. The rest of the roster behind Paul, West and Chandler is pretty blah, and they have to deal with the double whammy of playing in a new city before uncertain fan support and having to play the toughest schedule in the NBA with a steady diet of San Antonio, Dallas and Houston coming to town. But Paul alone is enough to keep them competitive on most nights. 37 wins.

5: Memphis: Is Memphis much better than it was last year? They got outrebounded by 20 in a preseason game against a Spanish League team the other day. So I’m thinking they’ve got a ways to go.

The Grizzlies spent their cap room this summer obtaining two players who have never seen any success in the NBA , Darko Milicic and Juan Carlos Navarro. Navarro has been a solid guard in Europe for several years and, even more importantly, is very close friends with Pau Gasol. However, at 6’3″ Navarro is a tweener, and Memphis has a glut of point guards already. It appears that Darko’s chance at stardom was washed away while he was buried on the bench in Detroit, as questions about his motivation and attitude have crept up on him. He’s only 22 and you can’t teach 7’1″, so it must be worth the 3 yr/$20 million risk that he will figure it out eventually, right? Just ask the Lakers how that’s worked out for them with Kwame Brown.

The Grizzlies have been roundly praised for drafting Mike Conley Jr, but I have my doubts about this signing. Point guards , Chris Paul and Magic Johnson excepted , always struggle their rookie year, so it’s a little unfair to expect a 20 year old Conley to pay dividends for a while anyway. But Conley has to drastically improve his shooting to reach his potential and I’m not so sure he can “¦ because he shoots left handed but he is actually not left handed! It’s no big deal for athletes to use their non-dominant hand to gain an advantage , switch-hitters do it all the time, and Phil Mickelson is right handed but learned the golf swing by standing opposite his father and doing the mirror image of his swing , but Conley’s left handed shooting is terrible. He was a 30% 3-point shooter in college. So why make the game harder on himself by shooting with his off hand? Complicating matters is the presence of Kyle Lowry , he started his rookie season on a hot streak before getting hurt after 10 games so the Grizzlies owe it to themselves to try and see what they got in their 2006 first round pick.

The Grizzlies’ other big move this season was the signing of Marc Ivaroni as head coach. He’s got a lot of work to do to help this team move up in this division. I’d say their goal would be 33 wins , if they avoid a 50 loss season then it will have been a success.

The Chinese Government is out of control. They recently complained publicly about Yao Ming attending Special Olympics events and planning his wedding.

The Houston Rockets’ star was faulted for taking too much time off to recover from his last NBA season, as well spending too much time planning his wedding and making appearances for the Special Olympics and 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.

“No matter how lofty public welfare activities are, they can’t be allowed to take first place in a player’s life,” the China Sports Daily, a newspaper owned by the government’s All-China Sports Federation, said in an article Tuesday.

“No matter how sweet personal life is, it can’t be compared to the exultation of capturing glory for one’s nation,” the article said.

If I’m an NBA General Manager I don’t know if I draft a Chinese player ever again.