The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

ESPN.com’s Chad Ford is reporting that the Golden State Warriors are trying to get the Bucks to part with Yi Jianlian, and he suggests that a proposed trade might have Brandan Wright and the #14 pick heading to Milwaukee. Apparently, the Warriors made the Jason Richardson-Brandan Wright trade in the first place because they wanted Yi and thought he would still be there at #8.

Note that Ford doesn’t say that is a proposed trade so this is all 1000% speculation, but if G-State was to make an offer, that is pretty much what it would have to be. Technically the Warriors only have five guys under contract right now (not counting Baron Davis who is unlikely to opt out of his contract, and they also hold an option on Andris Biedrins) so Yi-for-Wright is about the only logical trade.

If this trade is offered, from the perspective of wanting a better basketball team in Milwaukee, do I take it? Absolutely yes.

From the perspective of wanting the Bucks to be in Milwaukee a few years from now, do I take it? No way. Not for at least another year.

I’ve pretty much soured on Yi as a player. I’m convinced that he’s at least 24 years old, so he’s not going to get much better. His rebounding ability — while actually better than I feared — doesn’t really scare anyone. He couldn’t guard physical power forwards, leaving that job to Bogut. He couldn’t get his shot off in traffic. He’s got that beautiful jumper, but any defense will let the best shooter in the world take all the 20 footers he wants because he still won’t make more than 45% of them. And forget about Yi eventually becoming a 3-point threat, he shot about 20% from the shorter international 3-point line his last year in China. Also, forget about moving him to small forward — when I think about how players will fare as NBA small forwards I picture them trying to guard LeBron James. Would they just get made to look bad or would they get comically embarrassed? Just think about Yi guarding James for a second.

Meanwhile, Brandan Wright didn’t play very much last season, and as a thin seven-footer with a “toughness” question mark he brings many of the same issues as Yi but without the deadly jumper. However, he posted a better IPM and Defensive IPM than Yi while playing for a team that was fighting for the playoffs all 82 games. Plus there is no doubt about Wright’s age — he’s 21. Wright might be a better player now and is almost certain to be better a few years from now. Not to mention, this draft is pretty deep and having two top-14 picks would be a nice coup.

But then there’s the money question.

After seeing what is going on with the whole Seattle-Oklahoma City debacle, I really worry about the long term viability of the Bucks in Milwaukee. Obviously David Stern doesn’t care about teams moving on their owners’ whim. But instead he looks the other way while the Grizzlies head off to flounder in Memphis, the Bobcats bomb so badly in Charlotte that the owner calls the local newspaper to bitch about local corporations not buying enough boxes, and the Hornets’ move to New Orleans was such a disaster that George Shinn forced the city into a lease that has an attendance-based escape clause two years in. You’d think that since the league hasn’t had a successful move or expansion in a decade Stern would want his teams to stay put, but instead he has been a steady proponent of the Sonics move, despite the fact that it has become crystal clear that the Clay Bennett-faction was negotiating in bad faith (I don’t know if Bennett’s actions make me proud or disgusted to be a CHK shareholder. I guess proud, since I started buying the stock at $3).

In a very insightful post at BlogMaverick, Mark Cuban wrote about why the NFL owners would have opted out of their collective bargaining agreement (he “no longer writes about the business of the NBA” on the blog, but it is easy to see the parallels in his post). His thesis was that the economics of the salary cap — where a huge chunk of revenue comes from the national TV deal, but the big-market teams have an unfair advantage in pursuing local revenue — are squeezing the small market teams to the point where they can no longer compete. Basically, the big market teams can sign lucrative local TV deals, start their own reigonal sports network and — most importantly — finance ridiculous new stadiums. Cuban is talking about the Cowboys’ and Giants/Jets’ new stadium in particular, but it’s pretty clear that the $500 million the Nets have raised for their Brooklyn stadium plays a part in his thinking too.

What happens is that the salary cap keeps going up because these big market teams can expand their local revenues so much that they significantly raise the leagues’ average revenues without the small market teams actually seeing any of that gain. Then the salary cap goes up, and since the cap is supposedly in place to make the small-market teams competetive, they are forced to keep spending up to the cap despite the fact that their costs are going up faster than their revenues. If they didn’t fill their cap then the fans and media would call the owners cheap and attendance would drop.

It all means that eventually the salary cap grows to the point that the small-market teams cannot realistically pay their salaries without running a deficit. Which means there can only be two types of small-market owners — those like Herb Kohl (who have seen their initial investment in the team grow so much that they don’t mind running an annual deficit) and those like Clay Bennett (who know darn well they are going to lose money, but want to own a team simply so they can say they brought professional sports to their backyard).

The problem, as I see it, is that no matter how hard Herb Kohl looks, he might not be able to find another buyer who isn’t like Clay Bennett. And David Stern — who was just recently putting Milwaukee on notice that we had better pony up for a new stadium within five years, or else — has made it clear that he is fine with that.

Which gets us back to the idea of trading Yi. Basically, as the league is currently structured, in order for Kohl to be able to retire and sell the team without all of us sweating them moving they will have to make more money. It will be much easier if this team has positive cash flows. It will be infinitely easier if the brand name Milwaukee Bucks has some international cachet.

I don’t have any insight into the teams’ finances, but I can’t imagine they are making money. I have very good seats at the BC and I don’t pay anywhere close to face value — it would cost me over three times what I pay to get the same seats at the United Center. I have Brewers tickets too, and let me tell you — dealing with the Bucks and Brewers’ reps is like night and day. The Bucks ticket office will bend over backwards to help you out, while the Brewers guys will kind of shrug their shoulders and tell you whether or not what you want to do works for them. It really seems like the Bucks need my money much more than the Brewers do.

Just doing the math, it doesn’t add up. The Bucks make around $30 mil/year from the national media deal. They drew about 600,000 fans last season, and if their profit is $30/ticket, then that is an additional $19 million. That covers their two major sources of revenue, but they paid $62 million in salaries last season. According to Herb Kohl’s personal financial statements, the Bucks’ gross revenue was $79.5 mil. Is that enough to get into the black for the season? Maybe, but it’s close. These numbers don’t take into account any expenses, and that is after Yi arrived this season.

Maybe they could make money — but only because of Yi. Kohl has said that they have taken operating losses in the past few years, and no matter what there is no way the Bucks made more than a couple of million last season.

The Chinese-language advertising makes a difference. Over time, selling a million officially-licensed Bucks jerseys in China might bring back $10 million in royalties (of course, they won’t get paid for probably fifty million unlicensed ones). At the very least, Yi’s effect on the bottom line helps close the revenue gap that simply must exist for the Bucks. The team has to milk that for all it is worth, and if it means passing on a decent prospect and a mid draft pick, that’s fine. John Hammond has to be creative to fix this team, and if keeping Yi is part of the package, then so be it. Just find another way.

But there is one caveat about this — the Chinese aren’t stupid. If Yi doesn’t turn into a good player soon then any interest in him is going to disappear as quickly as it started. His fans don’t want to cheer for him simply because he is in the NBA — they want to cheer for him because he is good. If Yi doesn’t pan out in the next year or two — and maybe even simply if he looks lousy at the Olympics this summer — then his fans are going to be gone, on to the next big-time prospect. There’s always going to be someone else to root for.

Hideki Matsui may still have 50 Japanese journalists following him everywhere he goes, but don’t forget that Kaz Matsui came to New York with almost the same amount of hype. And once Kaz didn’t become a star, he was forgotten.

So my guess is that the whole “Yi as a marketing tool” thing has one more year left unless he really busts out this season. I want to keep him around until the money well runs dry.

The Bucks need him too much to trade him now. As Bucks fans, we need him here for the financial health of the franchise. Hopefully he can hold up his end of the bargain on the court.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6′7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6′11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

Compared to the bustling rest of the Western Conference, the Pacific Division is the sleepy suburb. That is, a suburb run by the producers of “Desperate Housewives.� They may look like five teams with stable rosters and slow offseasons with little change, but behind closed doors there is enough turmoil and drama to make one sometimes wonder how these teams even manage to take the court.

1: Phoenix: Am I the only one who felt that last year was supposed to be Phoenix’s year? They had an incredible run in the regular season, and their series against San Antonio was setting up to be a great one when it was derailed by a brutally officiated game 3 (led by Tim Donaghy – take a look at what ESPN’s Bill Simmons had to say the day after the game) and the game 5 fight which led to the suspension of Amare Stoudemire for game 6.

I want to say two things about the Stoudemire suspension. First, nobody has mentioned the role Steve Nash played in all that – he got bumped for sure, but Horry hit him in an obvious fouling situation and Nash was cutting toward the baseline, so Nash clearly knew he was going to be fouled (otherwise he might have just run right out of bounds). So instead of going down like a soccer player, why not just brace yourself for the contact, keep your mouth shut, go to the line, and ice the game? Now, Nash had been getting hammered all series and getting no calls (thanks again, in part, to Donaghy, plus the nut shot he took from Bruce Bowen), but that was a really bad time to let the frustration boil over – that foul locked the game up for Phoenix. Also, I think the leaving the bench rule should be changed for the playoffs – if a player takes a couple of steps toward the court and then immediately turns back (as Stoudemire and Diaw did) then the suspension should be held over until the next season. Walking onto the court, or even defiantly standing there and staring out, makes the ref’s jobs of defusing the fight more difficult and a suspension is warranted, but the refs didn’t have to blink in their direction in that incident.

Anyway, the Phoenix Suns have been walking a fine line for years now. Despite having 3 max or near-max contracts on the books (Marion, Stoudemire and Nash) owner Robert Sarver has aggressively tried to stay under the luxury tax and gun for a championship at the same time. This has meant that strange things have been going on in the Phoenix front office for years, from outright selling draft picks to attempting to trade their best players.

Team chemistry is a fickle thing, and Phoenix’s has yo-yoed all over the place since Nash arrived. On one hand, having the best distributor in the league has kept everyone happy while things are going well, but there have been constant stories about who Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion have truly been playing for – the team or themselves. Stoudemire’s attitude has bounced back and forth throughout his career. The guy actually nicknamed himself STAT, and there has to be some sort of a red flag raised considering that his own agent fired him after his rookie season – how hard can it be to negotiate a max contract for him and take 10% of $100 million? Last year Jack McCallum’s book “7 Seconds or Less� blew the lid off of Shawn Marion’s personality. Apparently he’s incredibly oversensitive and constantly feels disrespected by the team and everyone else around him, and a lot of the coaching staff’s energy is expended toward keeping him satisfied. All of this comes despite Marion being the highest paid player on the team, playing the most minutes on the team, getting the second most shots, and being a 4-time all-star. Predictably, he didn’t react too well to the rumored trades that had him going to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko or Minnesota for Kevin Garnett (to Stoudemire’s credit, he didn’t seem to care that he was almost exiled to Atlanta) and Marion came to camp feeling unwanted and demanding a trade. That whole issue is supposed to have been defused, but those chemistry problems tend to fester and erupt at the wrong time.

The other problem with the composition of the Phoenix roster is their handling of draft picks. They have spent years amassing picks (particularly from the Joe Johnson and Stephon Marbury deals) but then selling them off as a way to keep down long term payroll obligations. Case in point is the Kurt Thomas deal this offseason – Phoenix sent Thomas and two future firsts to Seattle for a trade exception and a second round pick! Phoenix saves $16 million in the deal (Thomas’ salary plus the luxury tax) but they dumped a pair of valuable picks. These sort of low first rounders are the best way to cost-effectively fill out your bench, so the Suns’ attempts to reduce salary actually hurts their long-term cost structure, because instead of having $1-$2 million contributors on the end of the bench they have to chase free agents – and the decent ones cost 3-4 year guaranteed contracts, but, as Marcus Banks has proved, without the guaranteed performance. If the Suns hadn’t sold the picks that became Luol Deng four years ago or Rajon Rondo last year then how differently would their team look? For $2 million more than they are paying Grant Hill they could have Deng and Rondo, would not have wasted $25 million on Marcus Banks, and could have let Diaw walk instead of giving him his ridiculous $9 million/year. Plus, they could have kept Thomas’ post defense – if nothing else, he’s useful against Tim Duncan – keeping their payroll right where it is now and also having a better team. Lets put it this way – if any other team sold their picks as willfully as the Suns do, their fans would stage a mutiny. I don’t know why the Phoenix fans don’t, either.

With all those negatives taken into account, this is still the most exciting, fun team to watch in the entire NBA. They have 4 incredibly dynamic players in Stoudemire, Marion, Nash and Barbosa and run the league’s most entertaining offense. They can run all over anyone in the league at any time and while their frontcourt isn’t very deep, they do have a solid 7-man rotation (although Mike D’Antoni is often criticized for not using his bench enough and playing his starters far too many minutes).

The Suns are chasing a championship and while they are one of the top 5 contenders I don’t think it’s going to happen for them this season, and I feel that their failure to restock their roster with young talent will cause their window to close soon. They should win over 55 again this season, but I think that the size of teams like San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Denver will end the Suns’ season prematurely once again.

2: Golden State: Boy, was I glad to see that Warrior playoff run come to an end. I couldn’t understand why everybody was acting like they were the most exciting team ever – so they pulled an upset over a team who their coach used to coach and who they had blown out twice at the end of the regular season (and beat a team, Dallas, that was not playing well at all at the end of the year). Big freaking deal. My problem with them was not the way they won, but the way they lost. Nearly every single game was a never-ending stream of complaining at the officials, and three of their seven playoff losses ended with ejections, cheap shots, and questions of whether Steven Jackson would get suspended for the following game.

After creating a roster filled with absolutely ridiculous contracts, Chris Mullin did a good job of digging himself out of a luxury tax-filled hole. Trading away Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy last season was a good start, and sending Jason Richardson to Charlotte for cap relief and Brandan Wright finished the job. Now the Warriors could theoretically drop below the salary cap as soon as next season if Baron Davis opts out and they let him walk (big if, but still).

However, the loss of Richardson will really hurt. Their replacement is rookie Marco Belinelli, who shot the ball extremely well in the summer league, but who’s shooting percentages in Italy suggest that he may have just been on a hot streak. If Belinielli struggles than they will make use of a dual point guard lineup with Baron Davis and Monta Ellis on the floor together. Wright has potential, but needs to gain weight and is probably a year or two away from making much of a difference. That’s a problem because Don Nelson’s run-run-run style requires a deep bench. Even last year in the playoffs, when most teams shorten their bench, Nelson gave big minutes to Matt Barnes, Ellis, and Mickael Pietrus.

The Warriors were better than their regular season record indicated last season because injuries meant that they only played about 15 regular season games with their whole team. They do have a roster made up of players either in their prime – Davis, Jackson – or just entering it – like Ellis and Andris Biedrins – and should be an exciting 45 win team this year. Hopefully they can just shut up and play.

3: LA Lakers: Kobe Bryant is a difficult, headstrong guy who is selfish and trying to quit on his team by forcing his way out of town. But, you know what? He’s right about something. The rest of this roster completely sucks.

The Lakers have managed to put together a borderline luxury tax team while only having 3 guys getting paid over the midlevel – and one of them is Kwame Brown! Of the rest of the roster, only Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher have done anything of note in the league. Most of the Lakers’ personnel moves border on the incomprehensible, but apparently part of the problem is too many cooks in the kitchen. Much has been made of the Lakers passing on a Jason Kidd trade last year because it would have cost them Andrew Bynum. Apparently the trade was kyboshed by the son of owner Jerry Buss, Jim, because he feels he “discovered� Bynum and wanted to keep his pet project around. Well, that’s supposed to be why they have GM’s – to figure out what is in the teams’ best interests. Building for the future with Kobe is not a wise move. John Holllinger had a great point about Bryant a couple of years ago – that even though he is in his prime at 29 years old, he may age faster than some great players. He has played big minutes since he was 19, plus about an extra seasons worth of playoff games. The wear and tear might catch up to Kobe faster than it did many other players. He will still be good for a long time, but his days as a #1 team-carrying leader may be numbered. If you have a chance to get Jason Kidd for Bynum … well, Kobe said it best in the “parking lot video� this summer … “we’re talking about Jason Kidd here!�

But the Lakers have made plenty of other dumb moves that you can’t blame on the owners’ son. Like signing Vladimir Radmanovic to a 5 year deal, for instance. They had a cheaper, better, younger player in Brian Cook who plays the same position and does the same things. Then they extended Cook’s deal too, so the two of them can share the backup power forward role until 2010. Then, when they had the chance to undo their mistake and try to void Radmanovic’s contract because he went snowboarding in the middle of the season (in direct violation of his contract) and separated his shoulder, and then lied to the team about it; they didn’t bother.

On top of this mess, Phil Jackson seems to have sided with Kobe vs. the Lakers management team and wants the rest of the roster to be shaken up. He’s right. The best case scenario for this team is about 44 wins and barely getting into the playoffs, the worst case is Kobe simply mailing it in (which he has done before) and the Lakers completely imploding. A fair Kobe trade would be virtually impossible to dream up, and the downward spiral of the Lakers’ talent level would increase should that occur. I think that all the issues surrounding the team (and the awfulness of the roster) drag them down to 33 wins.

4: Sacramento: Wow, did things get bad here in a hurry. Their roster got old, as they looked that their three former all-stars Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, and Ron Artest as the makings of a playoff-caliber team and filled in the holes with veterans. However, Shareef Abdur-Rahim had a down year and John Salmons predictably wasn’t any good. Miller’s game completely fell apart, and one has to wonder if he has lost a step for good. Since Eric Musselman apparently couldn’t cut it as coach of this bunch, the Maloof’s let him go and brought in Reggie Theus, whose head coaching experience consists of 2 years at New Mexico State and 5 episodes of the “Saved By The Bellâ€? rip-off “Hang Time”.

Regarding Ron Artest, I think the most impressive statistic about him last year would have to be that the Sacramento police responded to 5 different 911 calls from his house between August, 2006 and March, 2007. Less seriously, though, is the fact that he is not the same player he was a few years ago. I remember watching a Bulls at Lakers game about 7 years ago – when the Lakers were winning titles and the Bulls had Khalid El-Amin as their starting point guard – and I knew the Bulls would win because Shaq was out and Chicago had Artest to shut Kobe down, which he did with ease. However, while Artest has a reputation as a great two-way threat, that’s really not the case. He was never a great offensive player – considering that he was great defensive player, he was a pretty good offensive player. There’s a difference. And that difference shows up now that the defensive rules have been changed to eliminate contact on the perimeter. That was Artest’s game right there – lean on guys all night long. Now that he can’t do that he’s just a great post defender but regular defender outside the paint and a pretty decent rebounder for his position, while being a fairly low-percentage shooter who is a kind of black hole with the ball.

The Kings did get a bust-out season from Kevin Martin, who turned in a highly efficient 20 ppg on 47% shooting. The Kings signed him to a sensible 5 year, $55 million contract extension, earning a collective “who?� from most casual NBA fans, who have still never heard of the guy. Sacto also blundered by signing Mikki Moore to a 3 year deal, who’s career season last year at the age of 31 screams “fluke� in about 10 different languages.

It’s going to be a long year in Sacramento, as management has to decide whether this veteran group is coming or going (hint: they are going) and whether or not to blow it up and rebuild (Yes! Rebuild!) . This is a squad that’s not going to win much, nor will it be very interesting doing it. 31 wins will be about right for them.

5: LA Clippers: Well, this is more like it. Bad personnel decisions and even worse luck have brought the Clips back to where they belong, the bottom of the West.

First the tragically bad luck: last season’s gruesome knee injury to Shaun Livingston has put his career in doubt, and Elton Brand will miss half of the season with a ruptured achillies tendon.

Corey Maggette suffered through a season of trade rumors and a lack of playing time either caused by an inability to get along with coach Mike Dunleavy, an inability to buckle down on defense, or a little of both. It seems almost guaranteed that Sam Cassell’s days as a Clipper are numbered, as he is in the final year of his deal and on a team going nowhere, so sending him to a contender that needs a point guard – Denver, Boston or Houston – sounds like a logical move. That pretty much covers it for the Clippers’ best 4 players.

Just to be able to get by, LA will need the same sort of out-of-position yeoman’s work that the Bucks got from Ruben Patterson last year, and for Chris Kaman to seriously upgrade his game. This roster has absolutely no chance before Brand gets back, and even if they still have Cassell in uniform when Brand does return, still isn’t a .500 team. As it is, 25 wins and the most ping pong balls in the lottery is a likely destination.

I’m a few days late, but better late than never.

• Fresh Coast Pistons notes the birthday of Rasheed Wallace.  ‘Sheed is now 33.
• The Bucks matched Charlie Bell’s offer sheet with the Miami Heat.
• Troy Hudson might join the Golden State Warriors according to Golden State of Mind.
• Andrei Kirilenko says he’s going to play in Europea next year.
• Fresh Coast Cavs wants Danny Ferry to bring in Sarunas Jasikevicius.