The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

There is some absolutely excellent anti-Lebron James clothing out there. My personal favorite has to be this shirt about “The Decision” on ESPN.

Hat tip to SlideRuleJockey on RealGM for linking me to a whole collection of anti-James shirts.

ESPN is reporting that the Bucks have a couple of deals in the works to try and dump the salary of Richard Jefferson.

The two potential deals, they report, are Jefferson to Cleveland for Wally Sczcerbiak or to Portland for Raef LaFrentz.

Both of these deals are outright salary dumps, with Sczcerbiak having an expiring $13 million contract and LaFrentz and expiring $12.7 million deal. LaFrentz is injured, and 80% of his salary is being paid for by insurance. Jefferson is owed $29.2 million over the next two years.

If the Bucks pull off one of these trades, they will drop to only $40 million committed to salary for next year, making it easy for them to afford to re-sign either or both of Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva if they choose. They will also be able to withstand the potential drop in the salary cap that may be coming down the pipe next year.

From Cleveland’s perspective, I’m not sure why they would make that trade. Since LeBron James plays 40 minutes per game at Jefferson’s primary position, why bother adding him? Is it really logical to pay two small forwards — James and Jefferson — a combined $30 million next season when one of them is the most dominant player in the game?

Portland, though, might be a more intriguing option. They have been looking for a small forward for some time, and are apparently trying to work out a deal for Gerald Wallace as well. However, Wallace is better, younger, and paid less than Jefferson; so Charlotte is trying to make a trade that would include some of Portland’s younger players. The Bucks could do the trade on simply a 1-for-1 basis (or maybe with one other Portland player thrown in), causing less damage to the Blazer’s core roster. Jefferson also has a reputation as a solid character and would fit in the Portland clubhouse well (not a knock on Wallace, there’s nothing wrong with him either) and would be a good complement for Brandon Roy. Since LaFrentz’s contract is covered by insurance, the Bucks would likely have to chip in some cash to make up the difference between the money the Blazers are not playing LaFrentz and what they would have to pay Jefferson.

Hopefully John Hammond gets one of these trades done. The team has played pretty well without Bogut and Redd, but the writing is on the wall: if Richard Jefferson is your best player, the best you can hope for is to be a really well-coached team that is pretty competitive most nights. The team is that, at least. But there aren’t going to be many more wins this year with Jefferson or without him — certainly not enough to justify the massive (and possibly luxury tax-inflicting) contract he has. The Bucks are better off moving Jefferson and playing Joe Alexander more for the rest of the year.

Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons for nothing. Thanks, Larry Harris.

The preview train rolled on into the NBA’s Central Division this week.

Chicago Bulls
Nels: Give Me The Rock
Matt: Blog-a-Bull

Cleveland Cavaliers
Rock: Waiting For Next Year
FTS: Fear The Sword
David Friedman: 20 Second Timeout
Amar Panchmatia: Cavalier Attitude

Detroit Pistons
Brian Spencer: Empty the Bench
Natalie Sitto: Need4Sheed.com
Matt Watson: Detroit Bad Boys

Indiana Pacers
Tom: Indy Cornrows

Milwaukee Bucks
Brett Boyer: The Bratwurst
Frank Madden: BrewHoop

Enough about the Bucks. Time to look at what’s going on among the good teams, and preview the first round of the playoffs.

Instead of thinking about how teams have played throughout the whole season, I’m a little more interested in how they are playing now. So I calculated IPM power rankings for the last six weeks of the season, which gives a good picture of which series’ might be the most competetive, and where potential upsets may lie.

If you are not familiar with IPM (as I recently learned that my friend Mike Headd is not, despite his having read the blog for nearly a year), it is my proprietary player ranking calculation. IPM stands for Impacts Per Minute, and more about the methodology is available here. I update IPM rankings for all players weekly (here) as well as team power rankings (here). All of this information is also avaliable through the links on the right side of the page.

I’m writing the preview under the assumption that the playoff matchups will not change in the next couple of days. If they do then I will update them accordingly.

Listed next to the team names are each team’s power rank for their offense, defense and overall for the last six weeks. The information is also given here.

On to the preview:

Eastern Conference

1 vs 8. Boston (#4 Offense, #1 Defense, #2 Overall) vs. Atlanta (#9 Offense, #18 Defense, #16 Overall): Welcome back to the big time, Hawks. Blink and you will miss it. Obviously the Celtics completely outclass Atlanta in this series, and it looks to be a 4-0 sweep.

4 vs 5. Cleveland (#13 Offense, #9 Defense, #10 Overall) vs. Washington (#12 Offense, #15 Defense, #14 Overall): The Cavs haven’t really jelled as much as I thought they would since their deadline trades, only going 13-12. They have, however, played a little better than their record, as my numbers say they have underachieved by two games. Washington is struggling to reintegrate Gilbert Arenas into their rotation, and the combination of home court advantage and LeBron James should make this series a pretty easy Cleveland win. I say the Cavs in 5.

3 vs. 6. Orlando (#20 Offense, #6 Defense, #13 Overall) vs. Toronto (#10 Offense, #13 Defense, #12 Overall): This is an interesting matchup — I feel that Orlando has overachieved all season and Toronto has underachieved. They come into this series as an even matchup, but I feel that the point guards will decide this series — and I think that Toronto has a huge advantage there. I’m calling the upset here — Raptors in six.

2 vs. 7. Detroit (#8 Offense, #3 Defense, #3 Overall) vs. Philadelphia (#11 Offense, #11 Defense, #9 Overall): The only Eastern Conference matchup that features two top ten teams over the last six weeks, the Sixers could make some noise against Detroit. However, I think that the Pistons’ veteran savvy will carry this one pretty easily. Pistons in 5.

Western Conference

1 vs 8. LA Lakers (#2 Offense, #12 Defense, #4 Overall) vs. Denver (#3 Offense, #29 Defense, #19 Overall): Despite getting the edge over Golden State by beating them this week, the Nuggets are staggering to the finish line. Recent losses to Seattle and Sacramento highlight the absolute defensive collapse that they are suffering as they abandon that end of the floor to concentrate on scoring. Their home court advantage will win them a game or two, but they cannot seriously challenge Kobe and the Lakers. Lakers in six.

4 vs 5. Utah (#1 Offense, #4 Defense, #1 Overall) vs. Houston (#15 Offense, #5 Defense, #7 Overall): Utah has been the best team in the league for several months, but it hasn’t been borne out in their record, as they have underachieved by 5 games in the last six weeks. The problem is that they are simply dominant at home (36-4) but subpar on the road (17-23). That makes home court advantage the deciding factor in this series, which will be up in the air until the final day. Houston has one more game left than Utah, giving them an edge on getting home court. Even without Yao, the Rockets have been one of the best teams of the second half this season, and maybe this finally is the year that T-Mac finally gets out of the first round. My prediction? Lets see who gets home court advantage. Either way this will be the best first round series (which is saying somethng) and whoever is at home for game seven will prevail.

3 vs. 6. San Antonio (#23 Offense, #2 Defense, #6 Overall) vs. Phoenix (#7 Offense, #14 Defense, #11 Overall): Now the playoffs begin and the Spurs turn it on. One reason their numbers look so bad is that they limit Manu Ginobli’s minutes so much in the regular season. Once he starts playing a little more, look for them to get that much better. Meanwhile, I think that the Suns’ acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal will be exposed as a mistake in the playoffs — in the last six weeks their offensive and defensive rankings have all declined from their full season rankings. Spurs in seven.

2 vs. 7. New Orleans (#5 Offense, #7 Defense, #5 Overall) vs. Dallas (#6 Offense, #10 Defense, #8 Overall): After the acquisition of Jason Kidd, this is the worst possible matchup for Dallas. Kidd couldn’t stay in front of Tony Parker in the finals six years ago, what makes Dallas think he can check Chris Paul now? Meanwhile, the Mavs traded away their best matchup against Paul, Devin Harris, and in the process fell from the #3 seed to the #7. This is actually a pretty close matchup with two top-ten teams, but the Hornets are simply a little better at both ends of the court. Hornets in seven.

I’n not going to call the second round, but I guess I should give my finals prediction: Boston over San Antonio.

Without much new Bucks news to report, it’s tim to look at the rest of the league. The trade deadline this season brought several interesting moves that changed the landscape of this NBA season drastically. What happened to the whole “NBA GM’s are afraid to take any risks” label? It sure disappeared this season. But who won and who lost?

To try and put each teams’ moves in perspective, I looked at how the overall IPM’s of each team changed before and after each move. IPM (impacts per minute), in case you are not familiar, is my proprietary statistical player ranking method. It gives a good picture of how a player’s overall game influences his value on the court. The methodology is available here, player performance to date is available here, and team power rankings are available here. This information is always available through the links on the right side of this page, under the heading “IPM Data”.

To calculate the impact that trades had on a team, I averaged the IPM scores for each teams’ top 8 players both before and after the trade deadline. By calculating the percentage change in the data, one can surmise how a team’s prospects have changed. It’s not an absolute judgment, but a very good starting point.

On to the reviews:

The Losers:

Memphis: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.754; Post-deadline IPM, 0.678 (-10.1%).
Traded Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Assorted Beads and Trinkets, and Jason Collins.
While the Gasol trade was a total joke considering how little they got back, it was the right thing to do. They weren’t going anywhere with Gasol, so it was time to start over. Given the unstable situation this team is in, getting cap space and a bunch of draft picks is the best thing for them, since they weren’t in any position to try and win anything for years anyway.

Seattle: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.737; Post-deadline IPM, 0.711 (-3.6%).
Traded Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Kurt Thomas for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, Donyell Marshall, Adrian Griffin, and Ira Newble.
Impressive job by Sam Presti to manage to acquire only one player who would fit into their top 8 (Barry), and he was promptly waived. The interesting thing here is that Presti made deals that he didn’t have to (he doesn’t save significant money and will still have cap room coming) and he received players he didn’t need in order to help out San Antonio and Cleveland , the two NBA teams that have employed him in the past. Remember how Greg Popovich was whining that the league should have a “fairness committee” or something to strike down the Gasol trade? I don’t think he’s complaining any more.

Houston: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.842; Post-deadline IPM, 0.813 (-3.5%).
Traded Kirk Snyder, Mike James and Bonzi Wells for Bobby Jackson and Gerald Green.
I think the numbers lie here. Houston didn’t lose much. Credit Daryl Morey for taking the opportunity to rid his locker room of some headaches, even though the team has been playing exceptionally well. James and Wells were putting up decent per-minute numbers but weren’t playing all that much, and by adding Jackson they roll the dice on yet another backup point guard. Green is a good gamble, especially since he now gets to learn from the player he is most often compared to, Tracy McGrady (the jury is out on whether that turns out to be a good thing).

Phoenix: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.807 (-2.5%).
Traded Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal.
When I first heard of this move I thought it was a mistake for the Suns. Now I’ve seen them play with Shaq, and I’m convinced it was a colossal mistake. A team-killing mistake.
The trade doesn’t work on so many levels. I don’t understand the logic of wanting to improve their defense and rebounding and cut payroll, so their method of doing this was to trade their best defender and second best rebounder for a player who cannot defend or rebound any longer and is paid more and for longer. Meanwhile Shaq has not been able to stay healthy for more than 10 games at a time for years, and he now goes to a team whose coach has been derided for using too shallow a rotation for years? Incredibly, the Suns now only have nine players who average over seven minutes a game! I know Marcus Banks is terrible, but now they have to give his minutes to DJ Strawberry. Is that an improvement?
The whole “Marion is a superior player to O’Neal at this stage” argument aside, there’s another thing: for the Suns to make a deep playoff run they will have to play about 50 more games. In a conference that is so tightly bunched that a 5 game losing streak might knock you out of the playoffs altogether, what are the odds that Shaq will be able to stay healthy and contribute in most of those 50 games? 30%? 40%? To be charitable, 60%? Meanwhile, there’s a 95% chance Marion would be around for whatever the team needed from him.
I understand that Phoenix wasn’t happy with the team chemistry and blamed Marion (which is funny because the problem with Marion is that he blames everyone around him for all kinds of stuff , real and imaginary). But it would not surprise me at all if Phoenix misses the playoffs this season because of this trade.

Teams that Didn’t Change Much:

Chicago: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.765; Post-deadline IPM, 0.751 (-1.4%).
Traded Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Adrian Griffin for Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons.
Sort of like Memphis, the Bulls weren’t going anywhere this season, and long-term this was a good move. The Ben Wallace signing was not working out and by trading his cap-killer contract for Hughes’, at least the Bulls now free up court time for Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas.

New Jersey: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.796; Post-deadline IPM, 0.786 (-1.3%).
Traded Jason Kidd, Antoine Wright and Jason Collins for Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, DeSagna Diop, and Stromile Swift.
Actually, New Jersey did a pretty good job considering they were trading a superstar. While Harris is no Kidd, he’s an up-and-coming player who recently signed a pretty reasonable contract extension. He’s certain to be better than Kidd two years from now. Diop was a nice acquisition, making up for the loss of Collins’ defense. I’m sure that they are pretty disappointed they didn’t move Vince Carter as well, but there has to be something to make their master plan of being under the cap in 2010 (for a run at LeBron James) more difficult.

Atlanta: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.759; Post-deadline IPM, 0.750 (-1.2%).
Traded Shelden Williams and Other Assorted Spare Parts for Mike Bibby.
Hey, look! Atlanta did something! And they got a point guard! This trade only shows up negative in the IPM because Bibby was coming back from thumb surgery a little slowly. This was an excellent move by Atlanta, as they got the player they needed, traded away four guys they didn’t, and dumped a huge draft bust in Williams. This trade should solidify their playoff position and an opportunity to get hammered by Boston in the first round.

Dallas: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.811; Post-deadline IPM, 0.817 (+0.8%).
Traded Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris and DeSagna Diop for Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright.
Between Jerry Stackhouse’s big mouth, Devean George’s obnoxious agent, an unnecessary $10 million in extra luxury tax payment, maybe Mark Cuban should have gotten the message: God thinks this is a bad trade for the Mavericks.
Enough has been written about “Jason Kidd is a great leader, general, blah blah blah” so that everyone forgets that he whined his way out of Dallas 10 years ago because he and Jim Jackson both wanted to date Toni Braxton. He’s fought with every coach he’s ever had and brought his personal problems to every team he’s been affiliated with.
I know that everyone loves playing with him, but Cuban just gave up a lot to acquire a guy who is 35 and was complaining about his contract before the trade. Also, Kidd’s shooting, never a strength, has slipped to 36% this season. He was still rebounding like a maniac (for a point guard), but it remains to be seen how that will hold up now that he’s on a team full of great rebounders.
I have one other question , who is supposed to guard Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chris Paul? Kidd couldn’t keep Parker out of the lane in the finals four years ago!
Honestly, the more I think about this trade the more I think that Jason Kidd offers such a marginal improvement to Dallas that they gave up way too much to get him.

Miami: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.752; Post-deadline IPM, 0.765 (+1.7%).
Traded Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
I thought this move would propel Miami firmly into mediocrity (which is a big improvement from “laughingstock”) but at 0-5 since the trade, that sure hasn’t happened. I’m glad that Miami did this trade because it will give an interesting look at whether Marion truly is a great, underrated player (as most stats analysts have said for years) or just a product of the Phoenix system who was made great by Steve Nash. When you look at the ratio of dollars per minute played, though, this was a great move by Miami, and probably their last chance to get rid of Shaquille O’Neal before he could barely play any longer.

The Winners:

San Antonio: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.828; Post-deadline IPM, 0.850 (+2.7%).
Traded Brent Barry and Francisco Elson for Kurt Thomas.
Got to love Phoenix’s roster management. They trade away Kurt Thomas to get his salary off their books, and then decide they need to make a panic trade because Thomas was the only player they had to match up with Tim Duncan. Meanwhile, the Spurs nab Thomas for themselves, and now they are the ones with a fresh body to throw at Shaq, Yao, Chandler, Bynum and Camby in the playoffs.
The rich get richer.

New Orleans: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.772; Post-deadline IPM, 0.794 (+2.8%).
Traded Bobby Jackson for Bonzi Wells and Mike James.
This was a funny trade for Houston and New Orleans. The Rockets , a division rival — gave the Hornets exactly what they needed (bench scoring from multiple positions) and took what the Hornets don’t need (a backup point guard) in return. You almost have to ask: What’s the catch?
Looks like Houston sure was desperate to rid themselves of those guys, but when a team has a great point guard like Chris Paul to boost everyone else’s stats, that sort of locker room whining probably disappears in a hurry.
With the West so bunched up and every team a 5-game losing streak away from falling out of the playoffs altogether, the Hornets needed to make a move like this to ensure they have enough firepower. The surprise team of the regular season might be ready for a deep playoff run now.

Los Angeles Lakers: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.818; Post-deadline IPM, 0.848 (+3.7%).
Traded Nobody They Wanted and Two Draft Picks That Will be in the Late 20′s for Pau Gasol.
What’s amazing is that Kwame Brown was only the 12th best player on the Lakers in the first place, and they turned him into a multiple-time all-star. What more can be said about this deal? Once Andrew Bynum returns then this team is immediately one of the top two or three in the West. The only thing that should be able to stop the Lakers from at least reaching the Conference Finals would be Kobe Bryant’s injured finger becoming worse.

Cleveland: Pre-deadline IPM, 0.755; Post-deadline IPM, 0.803 (+6.4%).
Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons for Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Sczcerbiak, and Delonte West.
How bad was the non-LeBron portion of the Cavs’ roster before the deadline? Every player they added became one of their top 8 by IPM, and one of those was Ben Wallace!
It’s really incredible how pathetic that team was before the break, and amazing that LeBron was able to carry them to the finals this season. Now, even with Boston and Detroit in the picture, they might be able to get back there this season.
Suddenly their roster has become deep and well-composed. Wallace still has value as a team defender, Smith is a nice all-around player who is a good complement for Varejao, and Delonte West suddenly becomes a valuable piece with the injury to Daniel Gibson.
But Sczcerbiak is the key here , he’s the shooter than the Cavaliers have been seeking for years, and while he can’t guard a chair, he is surrounded by A-level defenders in James, Varejao, Ilgauskas and Wallace.

Thanks to the trade deadline, the Eastern Conference has three powers now.

Look at that, the Bucks showed some heart and soul, fighting back from an early 14 point deficit to pull off a really nice win in Cleveland. They can win on the road!

There are some big positives about this game, namely that Mo seems to be shaking out of his slump. 20 points, 9 assists is a good game for anyone, and he finally got some free throw attempts (although he did only go 5-8). Also, Redd has typically had trouble in games where he has to match up against the games best (LeBron, Bryant, Iverson) and while James put up a typically excellent night (34/7/7), Redd was right there to match him (34/7/6). Possibly the most exciting thing about Redd is that he is still putting up the impressive rebound and assist totals.

There are a couple of questions here, though. Isn’t it a little early for Yi to hit the rookie wall? He has been a non-factor for 3 games now, and his first 6 minute stint in the game coinciding with Cleveland’s 22-8 run to open the game.

Also, I didn’t like one thing about how the Bucks handled the end of the game — when Mo got a rebound off of a Gibson missed free throw with 9 seconds left, why would he call timeout? The shot clock was off, he could have held the ball until one second remained. All he had to do was tuck the ball away like a football and the Cavs would have been forced to foul him. By calling the timeout then the Bucks had to inbound the ball, risking a turnover. Not to mention the Bucks burned their final timeout on that play.

That is either a bad decision by Mo, or a mistake by Krytskowiak. He should have made sure his players knew that if Gibson missed then the rebounder needed to hold the ball and get to the line. Well, it’s a moot point since the Bucks still won, but that timeout still made the Bucks stress an inbound pass that didn’t need to be.

Overall, a good win. Hopefully it carries over into a good showing against the Lakers tonight.

Come one come all to comment on the game tonight between the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bucks go on the road tonight to take on the Cavs, who they have not beat in Cleveland since 2003. To put that in perspective Lebron James was still in high school and the only good Chinese basketball player was Yao Ming when the Bucks last won in Cleveland.

Can Redd, Mason, Bogut and company contain Lebron and a thin Cavs front court tonight? Tune in to FSN Wisconsin at 6:00 P.M. to find out.

Wow, what a demolition of a pretty good team on Tuesday night against Toronto. Any time a team wins by 27, shoots 60 percent and outrebounds their opponent by 13 there isn’t really anything to complain about.

And just look at Desmond Mason, working so hard to prove me wrong about how bad his game has gotten. 10-10 shooting, a couple of highlight dunks, and excellent defensive work to boot. Of course, I’m sure that’s the last 10-10 shooting night we’ll see of him — some of his shots were complete crap that fell in.

And note Yi completely outplaying Chris Bosh. Yi was on the floor for most of Bosh’s rather poor 16 minutes, and made several nice plays on him. One time Yi beat Bosh to a loose rebound and drove back in for a foul, and on another posession took Bosh off the dribble from 18 feet and beat him for a layup. Very, very nice.

But it is Toronto’s coaching that I wanted to talk about — Sam Vincent Mitchell pulled the coaching move that is my biggest pet peeve — pulling his best player early because he got two quick fouls, and then not bringing him back until the game was totally out of hand.

Bosh was removed after his second foul with the Raptors only down 3. They scratched along for a couple of minutes and the Bucks then went on a 14-0 run. Why wouldn’t Vincent Mitchell bring Bosh back after 8- or 10- straight Bucks points? Obviously if Bosh then comes back and gets more fouls then the Raptors are sunk, but what’s the point of leaving him on the bench while the Bucks run out to a 25 point lead? What good is Bosh going to do when you are already down 30?

But Vincent’s Mitchell’s efforts to keep Bosh out of foul trouble were a huge success — Bosh came back in the middle of the second quarter and the Raptors immediately went on a 5-0 run to cut it to 52-36, but the game was already won for Milwaukee by that point. Bosh then played 5 minutes of the second half before packing it in with 16 minutes played, one point scored, and a whole three fouls. So if he had come back in the first quarter he may have picked up a couple of more fouls, but the game might have been closer and the whole second half may have played out differently. But instead, Vincent Mitchell basically gave the Bucks the game only 5 minutes into the first quarter. Fortunately the Bucks were so hot that they grabbed that gift and ran away with it.

My favorite example of “why give them the game just because your star has two fouls” was game 2 of last years’ Finals. LeBron James picked up his second foul less than three minutes into the game. So, this being the Finals and all, not an important game or anything, Mike Brown sat down James for the rest of the quarter. Believe it or not, the Cavs had a hard time executing without James and they finished the first quarter down 11. Game over. And then LeBron came back to start the second quarter and finished with 38 minutes played and a grand total of 3 fouls. Just incredible.

My thanks to popcornmachine.net for the game flows, which are a really interesting tool to keep an eye on. I probably look at their data every single day.

Edit Not trying to make some comment about Sam Vincent; I accidentally got him confused with Sam Mitchell.

The Bucks are going to finish in fourth place in the division this year. However, they could be anywhere between the 5th best and 12th best teams in the conference, so there is plenty to think about for this season. Here’s a player-by-player look at what we can expect to see on the court this season (listed in order of salary):

Michael Redd: He is in his prime and has raised his game a little bit every season. Hopefully this is the year that his teammates bring enough offense to allow him to reduce his load a little. Despite his reputation, Redd is more than just a standstill jump shooter — he got to the line very effectively last season, and it would be nice to see him add a wrinkle to his game by dishing the ball off on his drives more often. Redd will never be much of a defensive player, but at least his offense has always been good enough to make his court contribution net-positive unless he has to stick the best opposition (Iverson and Kobe are two guys who have always absolutely killed him). The bottom line is that Michael Redd is a solid star — not someone who can carry you to the championship, but a star nonetheless.

Bobby Simmons: Hopefully the real Simmons finally shows up this season. When healthy, he is a tough, physical defender (think a sane Ron Artest with 80% of the ability) and an excellent three-point shooter. Simmons played hurt for most of his first season with the Bucks and never really got on track, but he’s an important part of the puzzle this year. Simmons is the only starter who can be considered a plus-defender and he is also a good rebounder for his position, so getting him back into the lineup addresses the Bucks’ two major weaknesses.

Mo Williams: I’ve never really bought into the whole “pure point guard” vs. “shoot-first point guard” thing for two reasons: first, the most important thing is for the team to score more points than the opposition and, second, there isnt really any good way to objectively measure how good a passer a player is. Assists, for example, has as much to do with the point guards’ pass as it does with the finishing ability of the recipient and the decision of the official scorer. So does Mo shoot too much? Last season he took the 5th most shots per 40 minutes of all point guards (behind Arenas, Parker, Cassell and Davis) with 16.87, but the difference between him and the #21 point guard (Stephon Marbury) was only 2.81 shots per 40! That’s less than 1 per quarter! Also, Mo had several games where he was the only starter in uniform, so his scoring was necessary. No, his shooting was fine. Mo’s new contract is reasonable given his production and age, and he still has room to improve. Point guards often take years and years to reach their peaks, so while Williams will most likely plateau as a slightly below-all-star level player, there is always the outside chance that he could have a Chanuncey Billups-like career.

Desmond Mason: Don’t expect much production from Mason, as his game has really slipped in the last couple of years and he’s no longer good enough to be a full time starter. However, this signing provides good value for several reasons. He fills an important role as the backup small forward, and may be needed for as much as 25 minutes a night depending on Simmons’ health. He wont complain about not starting and should provide bursts of energy off the bench. Also, his contract is only two years, so he could be a valuable trade asset next season. Finally, he is a quality person who wanted to sign in Milwaukee. As long as the team doesn’t ask him to do too much on the court, this was a good signing. Should they wind up needing for him to start … that’s trouble.

Dan Gadzuric: After being misused by Terry Stotts and suffering through a simply awful season, it was hard to believe that Danny G was even an NBA player at all at times. It seemed like everything he touched bounced off his hands last year (making me wonder if he was playing with some kind of lingering finger injury) contributing to a lousy shooting percentage, high turnover rate, and dropoff in his rebounding. He also fouled too much, but that’s typical for him. I’m glad to see that Coach Krystkowiak is thinking about playing him at power forward, where his rebounding will be a big plus and maybe matching up with players closer to his size will help him rush less and concentrate more on holding onto the ball. He can’t possibly be as bad as he was last season, but he’s never going to play up to his contract, which has 4 years and $25 million remaining.

Andrew Bogut: While it’s pretty clear by now that he will never reach the level of some other young centers like Amare Stoudemire or Dwight Howard, hopefully Bogut will make the leap this year to a sort of “best of the rest” category. Bogut is younger than many people may realize — still 1 year younger than Patrick Ewing was in his rookie season — so there is still time for Bogut to mature physically. He is bigger this season and looked very good in the preseason, and hopefully that will transfer into a more agressive, physical game — because that’s what this team needs. They are depending on him to be their best rebounder, and an extra one per quarter would make a huge difference. I would also like to see Bogut shoot more. He shot 55% from the floor, which for a good offensive player (except for Shaq) means he isn’t shooting enough because he passes up too many difficult shots. At some point, Bogut’s game will have to make a big jump to justify being the #1 pick in the draft, and hopefully that jump comes now. But if he only improves his rebounding, then that will be enough to make him one of the best non-all-star true centers in the game.

Jake Voskuhl: Should Danny G drop the ball again this season then Voskuhl will see some playing time, but hopefully that wont happen. He’s not very good defensively, an okay shooter, not a particularly special rebounder … well, he’s a #3 center. What do you expect.

Charlie Bell: This is the exact opposite of the Desmond Mason signing. His contract is for very reasonable dollars but way too long (some other time I’ll write about why matching his contract was really, really dumb). If anything, Bell deserved even more money up front (considering how well he played the last two years for the minimum) but a 5 year contract to any role player, especially one who is 28 years old, is not a wise move. In the other anti-parallels to the Mason signing; Bell is effective on the court, doesn’t want to be here and showed up to camp out of shape (logically, though, he didn’t work out in the summer lest he injure himself while he had no contract, so that’s not a problem, and he is a quality person who just doesn’t want to be on the Bucks any longer). If Bell plays like he did the last two seasons he will be a valuable backup to both Williams and Redd who pulls his weight on the court and also who’s ability to play multiple positions allows a great deal of roster flexibility. However, I wonder what happens if he struggles on the court and never stops playing this whiny “I hate the Bucks” game. We don’t need the backup guard to be a distraction. I’ve been knocking Bell for a long time now, and I really do want him to succeed, but I just can’t shake the feeling that his head isn’t all here.

Yi Jianlian: Superstar or bust? 19 or 23 years old? The questions don’t end with this guy, and I think that finding out what we have here will cause some major growing pains — and some losses. I’m afraid that Yi’s rookie year will look a lot like Adam Morrison’s: he gets force-fed minutes, he has a few scoring outbursts but is lacking in other facets of the game, and his defense will be so bad that he costs them games. Hopefully Yi shoots better than Morrison. Yi had one 12-rebound preseason game, but also one where he was repeatedly beaten for baskets and boards by Kenyon Martin (he of the microfracture surgery on both knees). Hopefully Yi has enough of a mean streak that he will brush off the bad games, toughen up, take advantage of his size and deliver some punishment. I hope he’s not too soft for that.

Charlie Villanueva: It’s tough to figure out what to do with guys with Charlie V’s skill set. Such a tantalizing combination of shooting and distributing ability but too weak to play power forward and too big/slow to play small forward. Toronto dumped him because they couldn’t use him with Chris Bosh and now they have the same problem with Andrea Bargnani, and Lamar Odom has bounced back and forth between the forward positions with multiple teams. Villanueva is a double-double machine when he’s healthy and motivated, and one wonders if the force-feeding of minutes to Yi will hurt Charlie V’s attitude and intensity. Because of all the question marks — some of which are beyond Villanueva’s control — it’s tough to say that the Bucks can depend on him. hopefully he can play 10 mpg at small forward, get 35 mpg overall, and put to rest the questions about who won the TJ Ford trade.

Michael Ruffin: I’m glad to see the Bucks kept him instead of Samaki Walker. Ruffin is one of the most comically bad offensive players in NBA history, but at least he knows it and stays out of the way. He can rebound and play tough D, and given the amount of offensive talent on the team he fills some needs. Gadzuric will always have those occassional nights where he gets 5 fouls in 4 minutes, and Ruffin can step in as the third power forward or (undersized) center for a few minutes at a time. He’s a good signing as an 11th man.

Royal Ivey, Awvee Storey, David Noel, Ramon Sessions: If any of these guys are playing much than things have gone awry. Ivey will be at the end of the bench for defense at the guard spots, and Storey was signed as a #3 small forward in case Simmons can’t go and Mason is pressed into the starting lineup. David Noel would be best served spending the season in the NBDL trying to fill out his game. The same could probably be said for Sessions, as he would be better off playing 25 minutes a game somewhere else rather than 2 mpg here.

The best-case scenario for this team is that Bogut turns into a big-time rebounder, Yi brings high-percentage scoring and Charlie V becomes a multi-position threat. In terms of overall talent, this team could be the second deepest in the East (behind Chicago), which is exciting because the top 8 players are under 30 years old and under contract for at least 3 years. However, if the rebounding doesn’t sort itself out and Yi struggles, then the team’s lack of defensive presence could cause it all to fall apart. This team can win anywhere from 35 to 45 games. They could even win a playoff series (in a perfect world, I could see them beating Detroit or Cleveland). But they could also really collapse. So, here’s my fearless prediction: 42 wins, 8th seed in the playoffs.

Back in July I wrote a Central Division preview, and now it’s time for an update. My basic premise is the same: This division has 3 of the 4 best teams in the conference, and in the end the Bulls are going to be the Eastern Conference champions.

This article refers to IPM, which is available here.

1: Chicago: The Bulls survived their first “scare” of the season as Joe Smith finally played in the last 3 games of the preseason. However, that’s about as bad as it gets for them. This team is good, deep, and can match up with anyone.

The question everyone has about the Bulls is, “Where is the low-post scoring going to come from.” I think that is such a tired argument. While the Bulls don’t have an Eddy Curry, their offense is designed around their talent perfectly well. The offense is predicated on movement and doesn’t stagnate around a post player who needs his touches. This is a top-10 offense and will get plenty of inside points from their rotation of big men, plus the ever-expanding game of Luol Deng. The usefulness of Ben Wallace as a post player cannot be underestimated, either. Of course Wallace never shoots on inside plays, but he is an exceptionally good passer who can get touches and quickly get rid of the ball without the offense losing its flow. It’s not like the Bulls offense is simply whipping it around the perimeter. They get post touches, just not shots or points.

In my efforts to pinpoint one “bust out” player this season, all my numbers point to Tyrus Thomas. Thomas amassed an amazing number of rebounds, blocks and steals in his limited minutes last year, and his defense was spectacularly good. Thomas’ defensive IPM ranked as the 9^th best in all of basketball, and his combined IPM was third best on the Bulls last season. Clearly he has the defensive ability and the athleticism to be a star, he just needs the offensive game. Well, he has shot 54% from the field and 72% from the line in the preseason; both major improvements from last year. Watch out.

The one major worry is Ben Wallace , his game has obviously started to slip, as he has seen several years of declines in points, rebounds and blocks. However, some of his skills have remained in full effect , namely his ability to avoid committing fouls. He makes defense so much easier for his teammates because of his ability to challenge and harass shots without fouling, which frees up his teammates to play much tighter on their men , knowing that if they get beat, Wallace has their back. However, that cannot continue forever, and should Wallace suddenly have trouble staying on the floor, that could prove to be the Chicago achillies heel.

The Bulls have a lot going for them, but most of all is the consistency on the coaching staff and in the front office. The end result is a team that is extremely good, well-constructed, and ready to make a run to the finals. I call it a 55 win season.

2: Cleveland: I’m sure that the GM’s of every other NBA team are praying that the Cavs win their stare down with Dan Fegan over Anderson Varejao. Fegan and Varejao are demanding a $10 million/year contract, which would throw the Cavs well into the luxury tax realm and would set a precedent that no other GM wants to see: $10 million/year to a guy who averaged 6 points and 6 rebounds per game. But here’s the thing: in terms of how valuable he is to the Cavs, Varejao is worth that kind of money.

Varejao was the 8^th best defensive player in the game last season, by defensive IPM, and was the key to one of the best team defenses in the league. Defense was the real reason the Cavs made it to the finals last year , LeBron James was the only thing they had going for them on offense. Varejao came off the bench but was always on the court in the 4^th quarter, led the league in charges taken, and was an annoying pest that had a habit of coming up with big loose balls and offensive rebounds. This team needs him badly, because other than LeBron and about 20 good minutes a night from Zydrunas Ilgauskas then this team has nothing. Of course that’s not quite true , Drew Gooden is pretty effective offensively, and Daniel Gibson’s hot playoffs may not have been a fluke, but the overall talent level here is a problem.

I always felt that this team was set to take a step back as their best player had no offseason (yet again) and there’s no help on the roster for him, but without Varejao and (to a lesser extent) Sasha Pavlovic, who is also holding out, the Cavs will be looking at a much worse regular season. They’ll win 50 with Varejao, 45 if they don’t resign him or fail to do something else to bring in some help for LeBron.

3: Detroit: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this team looked old and slow at the end of the year. They hammered Orlando in round 1 of the playoffs, jumped all over the Bulls for 3 games, and then hit the proverbial wall. For a while it looked like the Bulls might be able to get back into the series; and then after 2 close wins, Cleveland lowered the boom on them.

The concern was how run down the Pistons lineup looked at the end of the playoffs. Chauncey Billups had a horrible postseason , which doesn’t bode well as he signed a new contract , and Rasheed Wallace typically had his mind on the officials more than the game, as he shot 5-14 and unsurprisingly got ejected from the season-ending loss after fouling out (in a nice show of team spirit, Richard Hamilton did the same thing). It’s not a good sign for the oldest starting 5 in the league to roll over like that. They also lost Chris Webber, and now depend on a tag-team of Nazr Mohammed and Antonio McDyess to man the middle. So who backs up the other 4 starters?

Joe Dumars is trying to remake the roster while still remaining competitive, so there isn’t much in the way of proven help on the bench. After Lindsey Hunter and Jason Maxiell, the bench is made up of rookies Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo. But the guy to watch out for is Amir Johnson.

Johnson turned pro out of high school a couple of years ago and was a second round pick. He’s a 6’9″, 210 pound forward who put up absolutely sick numbers in the NBDL and in very limited NBA minutes has performed well (he got only 2 games of 20+ minutes last year, but responded with double-doubles in both). He was a free agent this offseason, but the Pistons thought enough of him to resign him to a 3 year, $11 million contract. He’s the guy to watch for — you heard it here first.

I’m so sick of this team , constant whining at the officials, perpetual “we get disrespected by the media/fans/officials/coaching staff/caterers” complaining, and that dammed PA announcer “¦ This starting lineup is too old and the bench is too young, and this is the year that they slide. I hope I’m right. They are still a playoff team, but I don’t think they win more than 44.

4: Milwaukee: I’ll write a longer Bucks preview in a couple of days, but suffice it to say that this team is pretty much guaranteed the 4^th spot in the division. They could be anywhere from the 5^th to the 12^th best team in the conference, but they are sandwiched between three playoff teams and one rebuilding job. Anywhere from 32 to 42 wins will leave the Bucks in this spot.

5: Indiana: Larry Bird, are you still around here somewhere? The Pacers are stuck with the payroll of a team in a 3-year championship contention window ($52 million committed for 2009/10) but the talent level of a lottery team. It’s tough to rebuild when you owe over $100 million over the next 4 years to 3 players that nobody else would want , Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley.

The result of having a front office that either doesn’t know what it is doing or doesn’t know what it wants to do is this team: their best player is going around saying he wants to be traded, their big free agent signing is Travis Diener, and they brought 3 guys off their bench in their last preseason game that I have never heard of.

This team is going nowhere, and I think they will spend the season trying to figure out how good their young guys are (Danny Granger, Ike Diogu, and Shawne Williams) and how to get rid of everyone else.
My guess is that they remain somewhat competitive for a couple of months, pull the trigger on a Jermaine O’Neal trade, and crater after that. I’m looking for 32 wins this year.