The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6’7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6’11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

It’s funny how in all the major sports the balance of power has shifted so dramatically away from the conferences and leagues that the teams we root for in Wisconsin. The American League makes the National League look like AAA. The AFC thoroughly dominates the NFC (well, until it really matters). And the Eastern Conference is so ridiculously bad compared to the Western Conference that a 35 win team will make the playoffs this season.

And that team will be the Milwaukee Bucks.

Laugh if you must. Say “homer!” if you will. But it’s highly likely. Of the seven teams scrambling for the final two playoff spots in the East, the Bucks have three advantages. They have the most favorable schedule. They have the most home games. And they have the best home-court record.

The Bucks have 20 home games remaining and 14 road games. To this point in the season they have won 62% of their home games and 18% of their road games, so that projects to 33 wins for the season. If every other team’s home/road percentages remain constant then the Bucks would tie with Indiana for the ninth spot, missing out on the playoffs by two games.
How can the Bucks get from 18 to 35 wins in the season’s final 34 games?

I looked at the remaining schedule and divided each game into four categories: games the Bucks will definitely get blown out in, the games they should lose, the “winnable” games, games they absolutely should win, and games I can’t figure out.

Blowout losses: at Dallas, Detroit, at Detroit, San Antonio, Utah, Boston (2), at Boston, at Toronto

Should lose: New Orleans, Denver, at New Jersey, at Washington (2), Orlando, at Chicago

Winnable: at Indiana (2), at Atlanta, New York (2), Indiana, Chicago

Should Win: at Memphis, LA Clippers, Seattle, at Miami, Miami, at Minnesota

I’m not sure: Cleveland (2), Portland, Philadelphia, New Jersey

So if the Bucks win the games they should win and lose the games they should lose that puts them at 31 wins with 5 “not sure” games. So figure they lose two of the games they should win, steal two games they should lose and go 3-2 in the five toss-up games. That’s 34 wins.

Now, will that be enough?

One thing the Bucks have going for them is that they are done with their West coast trips. They only have two games remaining West of the Mississippi (at Dallas and at Minnesota) so they don’t have much travel remaining. How do the other challengers for the last spots stack up?

Atlanta: Currently holding the #8 spot, they have the inside track at finishing at #7. They have one more road game than home remaining, and have a road trip coming up next week that sees them with six west coast games (and a home game sprinkled in there). This team actually seems to be maturing into something halfway decent, and they should hold on to a playoff spot , as long as they can muster up the six road wins they need.

New Jersey: A recent nine game losing streak has this team is circling the drain. It now appears that Jason Kidd won’t get traded (as Dallas has backed out of the bidding) and that Vince Carter has already decided that with a new contract it isn’t worth it to him to try very hard. They also have a five game west coast trip coming up in March. While I could see this team collapsing, they have always given the Bucks fits , and the April 12 Bucks-Nets game could be the final determinant of which of these teams gets the 8 seed.

Indiana: The Pacers have a favorable schedule , 20 home games to 15 road games, and their only west coast run is a quick jaunt to lose at Houston and San Antonio. But the difference between them and the Bucks is that the Pacers have been lousy at home this season (43%). They have been playing at the second highest pace in the league all season but use a short bench (only six players average 20+ minutes, but does Kareem Rush really count as a player?). A late season fade would not be a surprise as exhaustion catches up to Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley and injury fells Jermaine O’Neal. The Pacers are currently on a 1-8 streak in games without O’Neal.

Chicago: The one team of the bunch that I’d worry about being able to “turn it on” and get hot, but they haven’t shown any sort of ability to do that thus far. They have a balanced home/away schedule the rest of the year, but have been poor both at home and on the road all season (43%/35%). I thought this team was a title contender, so obviously I am the last person to pass judgment on their prospects, but I feel that if any team out of this group might be able to get hot and make a run, this is it.

Philadelphia: How is it possible to win 39% of your home games? Despite the fact the Bucks have made them look like world-beaters twice, this Sixers team is awful.

Charlotte: They have an absolutely brutal schedule. 8 more road games than home, and they essentially spend all of March on an extended west coast trip that has a couple of random day trips back East for home games sprinkled in. The Bobcats have no chance with their schedule.

Doesn’t it make sense that the Bucks can catch either Atlanta or New Jersey and hold off the rest of the East? The Bucks might not be the best team, but they have a very realistic shot against the other contenders. For all the complaining about the Bucks roster, most of these other teams have it much worse.

Of course the only problem is that should the Bucks get the 8 seed, they will be the answer of a trivia question for a long time: “Who was the worst team (by record) to ever get a playoff spot in the NBA?”

As far as I’m concerned, I hope the Bucks get the 8 seed instead of the 7. I’d rather see them get blown out by Boston twice than by Detroit.

So that’s it , I’m a believer. I have one more flare of optimism left in me. Barring a run of injuries, this team will be in the playoffs come April. That makes Tuesday night’s game against Memphis extremely important. Blow it against the Grizzlies and all bets are off.

Down three with two seconds remaining, Mo Williams blows by Walter Herrmann and draws a goaltending violation on a layup to end the game. But Mo would later admit he thought they were only down two at the time.

How is that possible? BAD COACHING!

Beyond the fact that the Bucks went three straight posessions between 1:40 and 1:00 remaining without even getting a shot up, Krystkowiak completely botched the end of this game. Let me count the ways:

1) Why is Desmond Mason in the game instead of Simmons for the final 30 seconds? You need a 3 — should the ball wind up in one of their hands, who would you rather see shooting it from deep? Or, if you really want Mason in for size and rebounding, why not have Simmons in for Bell? You only need one point guard in at a time, and Simmons could box out Gerald Wallace better than Redd can (allowing Redd to guard McInnis).

2) The Bucks were out of timeouts with 18 seconds remaining, but while Felton took his free throws Krystkowiak could have called Mo over to the bench and called a game ending play. The shot clock was off and the Bucks were going to be down no more than three (actually two after Felton missed one free throw). Whenever you are on the road and have a chance to run out the clock on a final shot you hold the ball and do it. Williams was an idiot for taking a jumper with 9 seconds remaining — not only was it way too early, but Walter Herrmann had switched onto him. No way he keeps Mo away from the rim — but with 9 seconds left, Mo should have still been holding the ball at midcourt, wating to initiate a screen-roll play with either Redd or Bell.

3) Even though it is Mo’s fault for forgetting the score at the end, it’s still on Krystkowiak to make sure he does know. Charlotte was shooting free throws in front of the Milwaukee bench. So why is Mo in the lane during the free throws instead of by the bench talking to the coach?

Horrendous end-game execution. Just awful.

In other news, the Bucks did outrebound Charlotte. Congratulations to Andrew Bogut, grabbing 17 boards in a game where he was matched up against Emeka Okafor, who was the 11th best per minute rebounder in the league last season.

Ah, the Southeast. Warm, sunny weather. Laid back people. Several average basketball teams, each with major flaws , especially at power forward. Except for Atlanta, who lacks pretty much everything except a ton of power forwards. This is a funny division — the only one without a good championship contender, but Atlanta might be the best “worst” team in any division. There should be plenty of entertaining games in this division, but no hardware come June.

1: Washington: You know the old saying, “The best defense is a good offense”? Well, last year the Wizards proved that one true until the injuries piled up. Washington had the 6^th best offense in the league (by IPM) last year, but the 26^th best defense. It all seemed to be working as the Wiz cruised into mid-March at 34-25 and were thinking about the #1 seed in the East. However, injuries to Caron Butler and then Gilbert Arenas sent the team into a tailspin. They finished with a 6-13 face plant, with all 6 wins coming against non-playoff teams. The hobbled Wizards were then crushed in the playoffs by Cleveland.

Washington’s identity was built around the eye-popping play of Gilbert Arenas, who might be the deadliest late-game player currently in the league. However, Caron Butler may have actually been their most important player, as he raised his offensive game to All-Star level and was also one of their best perimeter defenders (but that’s all relative to his teammates. Butler’s defense was pretty average). The whole no-defense policy will continue for at least another year as defense-allergic Antwan Jamison and limited Brendan Haywood make up the starting frontcourt. Tragically, co-starting center (and frequent wrestling opponent of Haywood) Etan Thomas’ career is in doubt after requiring surgery to repair a heart defect, which will press first round pick Oleksiy Pecherov into action sooner than expected.

The Wiz didn’t do anything of note with their roster, mostly because they were already right at the luxury tax line and they will also have to break the bank next offseason to extend Arenas’ contract. They let bust Jarvis Hayes go and resigned DeShawn Stevenson and Andray Blatche, so their 8 man rotation returns virtually unchanged.

The Wizards had a system that worked last year , score enough to keep it close until the 4^th quarter, then give it to Gilbert and get out of the way , and they are going to try it again. Assuming that Arenas comes back at full strength (and there is no reason to believe he wont) then this team is the class of the division. They should win 50, but that shaky defense makes them ripe for a first-round playoff upset.

2: Orlando: A couple of months ago I wrote that if the Magic wanted a scoring small forward then they should have tried to trade for Corey Maggette instead of signing Rashard Lewis. I still think that is true, and if they hadn’t committed so much money to Lewis then they might have been one of the few teams able to put together a somewhat reasonable offer for Kobe Bryant. Oh well, we’ll never know. Instead the Magic used all their cap room on Lewis and failed to address their real needs , power forward and shooting guard.

Last year Orlando had a very oddly-composed roster. Their top seven players were either centers (Howard and Darko Milicic), small forwards (Hidyaet Turkoglu, Grant Hill and Trevor Ariza) or point guards (Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson). This made it very difficult for them to field a balanced team , they never could find the right player to pair with Howard, couldn’t use their small forwards together because none of them shot well enough or was quick enough to play the 2, and couldn’t use Arroyo and Nelson together because they were too small for the 2. It resulted in a team that was awful offensively, but at least because of the emergence of Howard played very well defensively. However, that roster imbalance caught up to them eventually, and they were dispatched with ease by Detroit in the first round.

After losing Milicic because they elected to sign Rashard Lewis (to a totally ridiculous contract) they still have a logjam at small forward and completely failed to address the gap at power forward. They signed Adonal Foyle intending for him to tag-team with Tony Battie at the 4, only to learn that Battie will miss the season with a torn rotator cuff. They also did nothing to fill in the shooting guard spot, apparently assuming that JJ Redick will be ready to step in as the starter. However, it appears that the college knock on Redick , that he’s not athletic enough , has carried over into the pros. While Redick shot okay his rookie year, his numbers of rebounds, blocks and steals were sorely lacking , which is a good indicator of ones athleticism.

By adding a 20 point per game scorer in Lewis, the Magic did address their most pressing need , scoring ability. This should not be one of the worst offenses in the league any more. However, they are so thin at power forward that Dwight Howard will have to pretty much do all the work himself, which probably won’t lead to many more wins or get the team any farther than it did last season , an improvement to 45 wins this year and another first round playoff exit.

3: Charlotte: For a short while, it appeared that the Bobcats were ready to make their big splash, fill up their salary cap, and make their move for the playoffs this season. But they made one big misstep , and now an early injury has short circuited their season before it began.

Michael Jordan showed he was serious about spending some money on draft night when they traded Brandan Wright for Jason Richardson. This was a big move because it allowed Gerald Wallace (who they would resign to a very reasonable contract) to concentrate on his natural small forward position and would banish Adam Morrison deep on the bench. But here is where Charlotte screwed up , before resigning Wallace, they should have jumped all over Anderson Varejao and tried offering him a contract in the 4 yr/$40 million range. Cleveland is right up against the luxury tax and should they have let Varejao go, he would have given Charlotte great depth at power forward , a defensive specialist alongside the offensive minded, defense-impaired Sean May and Walter Herrmann. However, Charlotte took the easy route , resigning Wallace and then using the remainder of the cap lavishing a bizarre 6 year, $27 million contract on shooting specialist Matt Carroll (think Charlie Bell without the ballhandling ability or defense , no wonder Bell is pissed) and trusting that May and Herrmann could handle the power forward position.

That plan lasted 1 week into training camp. May tore up his knee and will miss the season, so Herrmann becomes the de-facto starter. That puts tons of pressure on defensive maven Emeka Okafor and, an even bigger problem, will make Gerald Wallace spend some time at the 4. But now Charlotte is saying that Adam Morrison will likely miss the season with a knee injury. Morrison was so bad last season that he was on the short list of answers to the question “who was the worst player in the NBA last year who saw regular playing time?” (with the answer being either Morrison, Antonie Walker or Brian Scalabrine). For a shooting specialist, Morrison showed no shooting ability, putting up a lovely 37% from the field and unremarkable 71% from the line. He couldn’t rebound or pass either, averaging 3.9 rebounds per 40 minutes and 2.8 assists/40. At least his defense was comically bad, though. He was awful in every sense of the word, and can already pretty much be written off as a bust. On the bright side, Charlotte’s insistence on playing him nearly 30 mpg cost them several losses , so at least the team was better than their record last season. However, now that he is hurt, Charlotte has to wonder who will replace his meager production.

Charlotte was poised to make a big leap this season, but the injury bug has already started to hit them and unless they can get a solid 35 mpg from Walter Herrmann they will have to settle for a little hop. They now have a nice starting 5 , a developing point guard, an established 2 guard, a near-star at small forward and a dominant defender in the middle. A little turn of good luck somewhere could propel them to 40 wins and keep them in the mix for the playoffs.

4: Miami: The Heat put together the lamest championship defense since the 1999 Bulls. On one hand it wasn’t their entire fault as injuries claimed most of the roster. On the other hand, though, the roster was fatally flawed, and it seemed like motivation was a problem , other than Dwyane Wade and Alonzo Mourning, the whole team seemed content to half-ass it until the playoffs. You could sort of tell on opening night that Miami wouldn’t be around in the end when they started their title defense by losing 108-66 to the Bulls.

Predictably, Shaquille O’Neal promptly hit the DL to rest up for the playoffs, and the rest of the roster was on cruise control as well. Jason Williams always seems to be disinterested, and Antoine Walker was simply unconscious all season , but I don’t mean that in a good way. Walker’s game completely collapsed, as he set career lows in points and rebounds, and only shot 25% from 3 point range but still managed to fire up 4 per game. How many bricks can you lay before you give it up?

The one bright spot was Dwyane Wade, who simply did everything for this injury- and motivation-plagued team. He was the best player in the league until a shoulder injury ended his season, and he is not supposed to be back until mid-November at the earliest (ESPN recently reported that Wade would be unavailable until January, which Pat Riley denies). Honestly, probably the most amazing thing about Wade’s season was that he lasted as long as he did, given the constant punishment he takes with his all-out playing style. I thought it was interesting that Miami used their first round pick on a shooting guard this season , maybe they are thinking that the only way to keep Wade in one piece is to eventually reduce his minutes?

The luxury tax-strapped Heat had an oddball offseason as they tried to use the midlevel exception and the star power of Shaq and Wade to raid the Bucks’ roster, but would up being played like suckers instead. First Mo Williams made noise about loving Miami until the Bucks raised their contract offer, and then Charlie Bell inked a deal that was eventually matched by Milwaukee (much to Bell’s chagrin). Miami wound up doing little more than signing Smush Parker and sensibly picking up Alexander Johnson to be their backup power forward. Other than that, this team is about as shallow behind it’s superstars as Boston.

It makes me laugh how media types keep referring to Miami as a place to go “to compete for a championship.” While in a perfect world , everybody healthy, motivated and in shape , the Heat can throw out an imposing lineup, in reality they are so full of holes that “¦ there are more holes than solid sections. Because of the “I’ll be there for the playoffs” mentality Shaq is becoming less and less of a factor in the regular season, plus this year has the distraction of an increasingly bitter divorce. When Wade will be at full strength is an open question, and behind Udonis Haslem and Mourning the roster is made up of a bunch of has-beens and never-will-be’s. I can’t imagine them getting Shaq and Wade together more than 50 times this season, and those other 30 games will be rough. I don’t think they win more than 37.

5: Atlanta: You’ve got to love a team whose idea of adding veteran leadership is drafting Shelden Williams and Al Horford. The continuing front office mess in Atlanta hamstrung yet another offseason for the Hawks, as their warring ownership group is court-ordered to agree amongst themselves on any player moves that involves anything more complex (or expensive) than draft picks and minimum-salary signings. As a result, the Hawks wont agree on anything and so were forced to shoot down a 3-way Kevin Garnett trade that would have netted Atlanta Amare Stoudamire. Oh well, so much for that.

So that means the only thing that GM Billy “who needs Chris Paul?” Knight could do is draft Horford and Acie Law. Horford is supposed to be as close to a sure-thing contributor at power forward as can be, which Atlanta needs since it appears that Marvin Williams is never going to be able to fill the bill and that Shelden Williams is already as good as he is going to get. I don’t like players like Law, though , point guards who spring onto the scene based on one good college season and people say things like; “he’s more of a born leader than a point guard” and “he’s got a habit of hitting big shots.” Last guy I heard described like this who got taken around the 10^th pick in the draft was Reece Gaines. Remember him?

The Hawks better hope I’m wrong about Law, because he’s pretty much all they’ve got at the position. Speedy Claxton’s game fell apart, and Tyronn Lue won’t bring home many wins. The rest of the roster is theoretically pretty talented , at least, they have a ton of guys who were high draft picks there. Joe Johnson had a mildly disappointing, injury-plagued season after his bust out the season before, and Josh Smith asserted himself as one of the most talented and most immature players in the league, as Smith put up all-star numbers but also got a 2-game suspension from his team for throwing a temper tantrum on the bench. As far as bench talent, Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, and Josh Childress were all between the #2 and #15 picks in the draft, and the quietly effective Zaza Pachulia holds down the center position.

But this is still a roster of talented guys who have never done anything. And if the Hawks don’t get their management/front office situation settled, they never will. It’s going to be yet another 32 win season in the peach state.