The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

According to CNN-SI, the Bucks have agreed to trade Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons for Richard Jefferson.

Wow.

From a basketball standpoint, I love it.

From a financial standpoint, if the Bucks are willing to do it, then I’m all for it.

What’s most interesting about this move is that it sure does throw the idea of drafting Joe Alexander by the wayside. Does John Hammond have another trade up his sleeve to move up in the draft? Villanueva and the #8 pick for ….. what?

I’ve never been the biggest Richard Jefferson fan, as I’ve always felt he was a little overrated and benefited greatly from playing with Jason Kidd. But even if he falls off by 10% as a member of the Bucks then he’s still better than Yi — and light years better than Bobby Simmons. The Bucks actually take on salary in the trade, as Jefferson is owed $15 million in 2010/11 on a contract that is one year longer than Simmons’.

In my combined offensive/defensive IPM rankings, Jefferson looks like an okay offensive player and a pretty lousy defender. Whether that’s true or not, I don’t quite know, but the Nets were a much better team with Jefferson on the court than not, being out scored by 5 pp/48 with him on the floor and 7.5 with him off, according to 82games.com. Jefferson has an injury-prone reputation, but that’s not true — he has had two major injuries (a broken hand and something else I can’t remember) but in his five other seasons has played at least 78 games. He averaged almost 40 mpg last season.

So long, Simmons, we hardly knew ya.

But the big part of the story is that the Yi phenomenon has petered out, and that’s probably a good thing for Milwaukee. There wasn’t much he did in his rookie season to suggest that he is going to become a great player, as you can’t really expect his ability to get his shot off in traffic to improve much. It’s too bad. Drafting him was probably a good gamble. But I think we saw enough of Yi on the court to know he wasn’t really worth all the hype. When your most devastating skill is a beautiful 22-foot jumper your ceiling is always going to be limited because any defense will let you shoot that shot all night — because you wont make more than 45% of them, even if you are the best shooter in the world. Yi needs more post moves, he needs more quickness, and he needs to hold on to the ball better. Maybe that will come in time, but I think we saw enough to know that the best he will ever become is “okay”.

So who wants Villanueva and the #8? How about Memphis for the #5?

Don’t annoint John Hammond as a hero GM just yet — he may have just added an average player with a brutal cap-killer contract. But he addressed a team weakness, and if this move frees him up to make a big splash with another move, then today might wind up being a great day to be a Bucks fan.

(Edit — draft changed to reflect the fact that I forgot that Ty Lawson and Chase Budinger had returned to school)

I’ve been way too busy lately to write much, and I apologize. But I’ve heard enough odd rumors that I’m ready to put together a new draft preview.

My prospect rankings are here, and here we go with the predictions:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. When it’s all said and done, there is no way the Bulls don’t draft and keep Rose.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. I’ve heard all sorts of rumors (including Mo Williams and the #8 for Udonis Haslem and the #2) but I don’t think any of them will come to fruition. Whether Miami takes Beasley for themselves or someone else, they still take Beasley. I think they will wind up keeping him.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Sounds like NBA types are convinced that Mayo is the third-best player in the draft, and someone is likely to try and trade into this spot. Another fairly ridiculous rumor has the Bucks trading Charlie V and the #8 for the #3. Won’t happen.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. One thing about Bayless, his character isn’t in question. He’s the pick here.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. I still think they take him, I just don’t know if they will keep him.

6: New York, Dalino Gallinari. I’m back to thinking he goes to the Knicks. Gallinari, much like Yi, wants to go to a big market and has refused to work out for anyone but the Knicks and Nets. He also has more bargaining power than Yi, since Gallinari can sign a European contract for more than he would make on a rookie NBA contract whenever he wants. So, since he has stayed in the draft, I think he’s gotten a promise from someone.

7: LA Clippers, Russell Westbrook. When push comes to shove, I think they take the local guy.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. For the same reasons I said in mock 3.0. I don’t think Michael Redd will be traded, and I think they wont want to wait for Eric Gordon.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense.

10: New Jersey, Robin Lopez. It doesn’t make much sense, but it looks like Lopez got a promise from the Nets. He canceled his remaining workouts after visiting Jersey.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. I would simply be shocked if the Pacers pass on the local kid.

12: Sacramento, Darrell Arthur. Much like Lopez at #10, apparently Arthur canceled all of his scheduled workouts after meeting with the Kings. I have no idea why they would want him, though.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. Once again, a pick that makes too much sense to happen.

14: Golden State, Anthony Randolph. He’s 6′11″, 197. Doesn’t that seem like a bit of a problem? Randolph has been compared to Chris Bosh many times, but compared to Bosh’s season at Georgia Tech, Bosh had him by 30 pounds, 0.1 IPM (0.93 vs. 0.84) and 10% from the floor (46% vs. 56%). Bosh was also the same age as Randolph in college. Anthony Randolph is no Chris Bosh.

And my guess for the rest of the first (I’m just ignoring the foreign players):

15: Phoenix, Donte Greene
16: Philadelphia, Marreese Speights
17:Toronto, Kosta Koufos
18: Washington, DeAndre Jordan
19: Cleveland, DJ White
20: Denver, Mario Chalmers
21: New Jersey, Courtney Lee
22: Orlando, Brandon Rush
23: Utah, Roy Hibbert
24: Seattle, JJ Hickson
25: Houston, Kyle Weaver
26: San Antonio, Richard Hendrix (because they are geniuses)
27: New Orleans, Joey Dorsey
28: Memphis, JaVale McGee
29: Detroit, Chris Douglas-Roberts
30: Boston, Jamont Gordon

Let’s take a look at what has changed regarding the top of the draft, if anything.

My projection:

1: Chicago, Derrick Rose. Now that they finished completely botching their coaching search, the Bulls can now move on to trying to get the draft right. Despite all the stories about the Bulls trying to trade out of the #1 pick, I doubt it will actually happen.

2: Miami, Michael Beasley. Stories continue to bounce around that the Heat don’t like Beasley and want OJ Mayo, which makes absolutely no sense. How would Wade and Mayo be able to play together? I think all of the rumors are from Miami trying to get someone else to try and trade up.

3: Minnesota, OJ Mayo. Despite the early stories that Brook Lopez was the Minnesota pick, now it appears that the T-Wolves are more interested in taking the best player rather than a big man for the sake of getting a big man. That’s a good move, but I’m not so sure Mayo is the best player available. Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Mayo will be a bust (he just might not be all that great) and he will be better than Rashad McCants from day one.

4: Seattle, Jerryd Bayless. It appears that, for better or worse, the Sonics have had Bayless tabbed here from day one.

5: Memphis, Kevin Love. Whether they keep him or trade him, Love is the right pick here. He would fit in well next to the athletic Rudy Gay to make a nice frontcourt for the Grizzlies, or some GM would love a chance to trade for him.

6: New York, Anthony Randolph. Conventional wisdom has Gallinari or Augustin going here, but I can’t really see Mike D’Antoni’s offense running with a rookie point guard; and I also hear that D’Antoni isn’t all that interested in Gallinari. Since Randolph is a couple of years away he could develop while the Knicks embark on their multi-year project to cut away the dead weight on their salary cap.

7: LA Clippers, Danilo Gallinari. Most people have Eric Gordon tabbed here, but I think the Gallinari would be a more likely pick. He would have trade value (perhaps in a TJ Ford swap), or would plug in well should the Clippers finally trade Corey Maggette.

8: Milwaukee, Joe Alexander. Seeing as how the Bucks had Alexander and Donte Greene in for workouts, it’s pretty obvious that they are thinking “small forward”. Whether or not Alexander is that great a pick …. I’m not so sure. He’s clearly a workout warrior whose athletic numbers at the draft camp were off the charts, but as for how that translates into game action is questionable. According to my draft rankings, Alexander wasn’t that great a rebounder and his “athleticism ratio” (blocks+steals/fouls) was pedestrian, so he has probably gotten himself into better shape for the draft. Alexander is a heady player (10th best Curry ratio among prospects) who has a nice mid-range jumper. The main problem with Alexander is that he doesn’t have all that much upside — he only ranks as my #28 prospect, and if you are taking a player who is going to be 22 next year then I’d like to see his college numbers be better because he probably isn’t going to improve all that much. Either way, he should be a relatively low-risk pick who should be good-but-not-great.

9: Charlotte, Brook Lopez. It makes too much sense, so I’m sure Michael Jordan will do something stupid like take DeAndre Jordan instead. But there is room on the Bobcats’ roster for a soft center who can score and block the occassional shot, since they already have a power forward who can rebound in Okafor.

10: New Jersey, DeAndre Jordan. He’s big, he’s raw, he might be good in 3 years but probably wont. Since the Nets don’t care about anything that happens on the court until they move to Brooklyn then Jordan makes sense. He might help them win some games in 2010 but will cost them games from now until then, giving them higher draft spots next year and the year after.

11: Indiana, Eric Gordon. If he’s available, the Pacers would get run out of town if they pass on him. They were last in the league in attendance last season and have needs at just about every position.

12: Sacramento, Russell Westbrook. Much like Indiana, the Kings need pretty much everything and a high-profile scoring point guard would fill the bill.

13: Portland, DJ Augustin. About the only thing the Blazers need is a backup point guard, and should Augustin fall in their lap, I’m sure they would be estactic. The only problem is Augustin’s size — he’s shorter than Ty Lawson.

14: Golden State, Courtney Lee. I have no idea what the Warriors will do, so I’m picking a surprise — Western Kentucky’s Lee. He’s a big guard who put up great numbers and apparently had a strong pre-draft camp.

ESPN.com’s Chad Ford is reporting that the Golden State Warriors are trying to get the Bucks to part with Yi Jianlian, and he suggests that a proposed trade might have Brandan Wright and the #14 pick heading to Milwaukee. Apparently, the Warriors made the Jason Richardson-Brandan Wright trade in the first place because they wanted Yi and thought he would still be there at #8.

Note that Ford doesn’t say that is a proposed trade so this is all 1000% speculation, but if G-State was to make an offer, that is pretty much what it would have to be. Technically the Warriors only have five guys under contract right now (not counting Baron Davis who is unlikely to opt out of his contract, and they also hold an option on Andris Biedrins) so Yi-for-Wright is about the only logical trade.

If this trade is offered, from the perspective of wanting a better basketball team in Milwaukee, do I take it? Absolutely yes.

From the perspective of wanting the Bucks to be in Milwaukee a few years from now, do I take it? No way. Not for at least another year.

I’ve pretty much soured on Yi as a player. I’m convinced that he’s at least 24 years old, so he’s not going to get much better. His rebounding ability — while actually better than I feared — doesn’t really scare anyone. He couldn’t guard physical power forwards, leaving that job to Bogut. He couldn’t get his shot off in traffic. He’s got that beautiful jumper, but any defense will let the best shooter in the world take all the 20 footers he wants because he still won’t make more than 45% of them. And forget about Yi eventually becoming a 3-point threat, he shot about 20% from the shorter international 3-point line his last year in China. Also, forget about moving him to small forward — when I think about how players will fare as NBA small forwards I picture them trying to guard LeBron James. Would they just get made to look bad or would they get comically embarrassed? Just think about Yi guarding James for a second.

Meanwhile, Brandan Wright didn’t play very much last season, and as a thin seven-footer with a “toughness” question mark he brings many of the same issues as Yi but without the deadly jumper. However, he posted a better IPM and Defensive IPM than Yi while playing for a team that was fighting for the playoffs all 82 games. Plus there is no doubt about Wright’s age — he’s 21. Wright might be a better player now and is almost certain to be better a few years from now. Not to mention, this draft is pretty deep and having two top-14 picks would be a nice coup.

But then there’s the money question.

After seeing what is going on with the whole Seattle-Oklahoma City debacle, I really worry about the long term viability of the Bucks in Milwaukee. Obviously David Stern doesn’t care about teams moving on their owners’ whim. But instead he looks the other way while the Grizzlies head off to flounder in Memphis, the Bobcats bomb so badly in Charlotte that the owner calls the local newspaper to bitch about local corporations not buying enough boxes, and the Hornets’ move to New Orleans was such a disaster that George Shinn forced the city into a lease that has an attendance-based escape clause two years in. You’d think that since the league hasn’t had a successful move or expansion in a decade Stern would want his teams to stay put, but instead he has been a steady proponent of the Sonics move, despite the fact that it has become crystal clear that the Clay Bennett-faction was negotiating in bad faith (I don’t know if Bennett’s actions make me proud or disgusted to be a CHK shareholder. I guess proud, since I started buying the stock at $3).

In a very insightful post at BlogMaverick, Mark Cuban wrote about why the NFL owners would have opted out of their collective bargaining agreement (he “no longer writes about the business of the NBA” on the blog, but it is easy to see the parallels in his post). His thesis was that the economics of the salary cap — where a huge chunk of revenue comes from the national TV deal, but the big-market teams have an unfair advantage in pursuing local revenue — are squeezing the small market teams to the point where they can no longer compete. Basically, the big market teams can sign lucrative local TV deals, start their own reigonal sports network and — most importantly — finance ridiculous new stadiums. Cuban is talking about the Cowboys’ and Giants/Jets’ new stadium in particular, but it’s pretty clear that the $500 million the Nets have raised for their Brooklyn stadium plays a part in his thinking too.

What happens is that the salary cap keeps going up because these big market teams can expand their local revenues so much that they significantly raise the leagues’ average revenues without the small market teams actually seeing any of that gain. Then the salary cap goes up, and since the cap is supposedly in place to make the small-market teams competetive, they are forced to keep spending up to the cap despite the fact that their costs are going up faster than their revenues. If they didn’t fill their cap then the fans and media would call the owners cheap and attendance would drop.

It all means that eventually the salary cap grows to the point that the small-market teams cannot realistically pay their salaries without running a deficit. Which means there can only be two types of small-market owners — those like Herb Kohl (who have seen their initial investment in the team grow so much that they don’t mind running an annual deficit) and those like Clay Bennett (who know darn well they are going to lose money, but want to own a team simply so they can say they brought professional sports to their backyard).

The problem, as I see it, is that no matter how hard Herb Kohl looks, he might not be able to find another buyer who isn’t like Clay Bennett. And David Stern — who was just recently putting Milwaukee on notice that we had better pony up for a new stadium within five years, or else — has made it clear that he is fine with that.

Which gets us back to the idea of trading Yi. Basically, as the league is currently structured, in order for Kohl to be able to retire and sell the team without all of us sweating them moving they will have to make more money. It will be much easier if this team has positive cash flows. It will be infinitely easier if the brand name Milwaukee Bucks has some international cachet.

I don’t have any insight into the teams’ finances, but I can’t imagine they are making money. I have very good seats at the BC and I don’t pay anywhere close to face value — it would cost me over three times what I pay to get the same seats at the United Center. I have Brewers tickets too, and let me tell you — dealing with the Bucks and Brewers’ reps is like night and day. The Bucks ticket office will bend over backwards to help you out, while the Brewers guys will kind of shrug their shoulders and tell you whether or not what you want to do works for them. It really seems like the Bucks need my money much more than the Brewers do.

Just doing the math, it doesn’t add up. The Bucks make around $30 mil/year from the national media deal. They drew about 600,000 fans last season, and if their profit is $30/ticket, then that is an additional $19 million. That covers their two major sources of revenue, but they paid $62 million in salaries last season. According to Herb Kohl’s personal financial statements, the Bucks’ gross revenue was $79.5 mil. Is that enough to get into the black for the season? Maybe, but it’s close. These numbers don’t take into account any expenses, and that is after Yi arrived this season.

Maybe they could make money — but only because of Yi. Kohl has said that they have taken operating losses in the past few years, and no matter what there is no way the Bucks made more than a couple of million last season.

The Chinese-language advertising makes a difference. Over time, selling a million officially-licensed Bucks jerseys in China might bring back $10 million in royalties (of course, they won’t get paid for probably fifty million unlicensed ones). At the very least, Yi’s effect on the bottom line helps close the revenue gap that simply must exist for the Bucks. The team has to milk that for all it is worth, and if it means passing on a decent prospect and a mid draft pick, that’s fine. John Hammond has to be creative to fix this team, and if keeping Yi is part of the package, then so be it. Just find another way.

But there is one caveat about this — the Chinese aren’t stupid. If Yi doesn’t turn into a good player soon then any interest in him is going to disappear as quickly as it started. His fans don’t want to cheer for him simply because he is in the NBA — they want to cheer for him because he is good. If Yi doesn’t pan out in the next year or two — and maybe even simply if he looks lousy at the Olympics this summer — then his fans are going to be gone, on to the next big-time prospect. There’s always going to be someone else to root for.

Hideki Matsui may still have 50 Japanese journalists following him everywhere he goes, but don’t forget that Kaz Matsui came to New York with almost the same amount of hype. And once Kaz didn’t become a star, he was forgotten.

So my guess is that the whole “Yi as a marketing tool” thing has one more year left unless he really busts out this season. I want to keep him around until the money well runs dry.

The Bucks need him too much to trade him now. As Bucks fans, we need him here for the financial health of the franchise. Hopefully he can hold up his end of the bargain on the court.

Now that the dust from the lottery has settled, it’s time to take another look at the mock draft.

First of all, I heard a third-hand rumor (from a pretty good source) that the Bulls are considering an offer from Memphis to exchange the #1 pick for Mike Conley and the #5. Apparently John Paxson really wants Kevin Love, and is considering taking the trade. Obviously the Grizzlies — desperate for a draw in Memphis — would take Derrick Rose.

When it’s all said and done, I highly doubt the Bulls would accept that trade. This is the NBA — you simply don’t trade the #1 pick. Also, taking Love would basically mean that Paxson is admitting that drafting Tyrus Thomas (and trading LaMarcus Aldridge in the process) was a mistake. Trading away a chance at a local kid who might become a superstar — Paxson would be absolutely destroyed in the media for pulling that one.

Anyway, I’m going to do another projection of the top 14 picks in the draft, thinking more about team needs than my prospect rankings. There are a few changes from version 1.0.

1: Chicago: Derrick Rose. No way the Bulls accept that Memphis trade.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this trade has already been rejected and is only one of about 50 similar proposals that the Bulls will receive. The information came to me through a casual conversation, and I doubt that the source would have revealed anything important. What is most interesting is that John Paxson would actually be thinking about ways to get Kevin Love. Now that Love has lost some weight his draft stock must really be rising — I also saw an article on draftexpress.com saying that Kevin McHale wants him too. It all makes it sound like Love will not be around when the Bucks go on the clock at #8.

2: Miami: Michael Beasley. There are some rumors going around that Beasley may measure closer to 6′7″ at the Orlando predraft camp, and other rumors that Miami is interested in OJ Mayo. Why would they want Mayo unless they fear that Dwyane Wade will never be the same player? Hmmm. Anyway, I still think they take Beasley.

3: Minnesota: OJ Mayo. Everything that I read makes it sound like GM’s are starting to believe that Mayo’s poor season at USC was a product of Tim Floyd’s offense than Mayo’s game. Whatever, I still don’t buy it, I still think he’s a young Larry Hughes. No matter how good he looks in workouts or against high school students, if he was that good then his game should have shone in college as well. One interesting tidbit I learned about him this week — Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT. You would assume that since he changed high schools so many times he would have been a lackluster student, but apparently that is not the case. Apparently Kevin McHale (like John Paxson) also wants Kevin Love, and so may try to trade down.

4: Seattle: Jerryd Bayless. Despite what I wrote about Kevin Love being a good partner for Kevin Durant, now I feel that the Sonics will look to boost their backcourt instead. It’s a mistake, but still ….

5: Memphis: Kevin Love. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make this pick for someone else, but Love would be a good fit alongside the athletic Rudy Gay in Memphis’ frontcourt. Hopefully Love has 9,000 friends in Memphis to help fill their stadium.

6: New York: Danilo Gallinari. When I wrote version 1.0 I completely forgot that Mike D’Antoni has known Gallinari since he was a child. D’Antoni played with Gallinari’s father in Italy and apparently has been keeping tabs on him ever since.

7: LA Clippers: Eric Gordon. Yikes, if the draft falls this way then Gordon is the only top prospect left who would fit the Clippers’ roster.

8: Milwaukee: Russell Westbrook. Since the Bucks don’t need Brook Lopez they probably go for the best avalilable player (if the draft shakes out like this — I trust that Minnesota, Memphis or LA will screw it up), and at this point it is between Westbrook and Anthony Randolph. They sure don’t need another soft, skinny 6′11″ player, so Westbrook is the choice.

9: Charlotte: Brook Lopez. They can’t really take Roy Hibbert, right?

10: New Jersey: Anthony Randolph. Good situation for Randolph, as he gets two years to fine-tune his game before LeBron comes to town.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. I still think they want to have a replacement for Jamaal Tinsley ready to go should they finally manage to trade him.

12: Sacramento: Darrell Arthur. They need anything but a shooting guard and a center, and Arthur would probably be considered the best player available.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. I’m not changing my opinion about this pick. Portland is probably trying to trade down.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. I still think that Don Nelson — should he still be afilliated with the team — would salivate at a chance to coach Lawson.

How well did the Bucks fare this year when it comes to television viewers?  Not that well, if you exclude China.

Curious how the Bucks fared on television this year?  If you rule out China, not that well.
The Milwaukee Bucks’ dismal 26-56 season translated to unremarkable local TV ratings for their games.

FSN Wisconsin’s 70 Bucks telecasts averaged a 2.0 rating, an estimated 17,820 households.

The highest-rated game of the season came Saturday, Nov. 3, the Bucks’ third game, at home against Chicago. It had a 4.3 rating, or 38,313 households.

The season before, Bucks telecasts had a lower rating, 1.3, but because of a problem with Nielsen Media Research, that rating could have been under-reported by as much as 40%. Under-reporting by Nielsen was a problem in this market from April 2005 until April 17, 2007.

The last season a clean rating is available is the 2003-’04 season, when 35 Bucks games on WCGV-TV (Channel 24) averaged a 3.9 rating and the 40 games on FSN averaged 2.2.

Fans sitting at home clearly weren’t all that interested in the Bucks last year.  It’ll be interesting once the Brewers final numbers are available this year to compare the two.

Enough about the Bucks. Time to look at what’s going on among the good teams, and preview the first round of the playoffs.

Instead of thinking about how teams have played throughout the whole season, I’m a little more interested in how they are playing now. So I calculated IPM power rankings for the last six weeks of the season, which gives a good picture of which series’ might be the most competetive, and where potential upsets may lie.

If you are not familiar with IPM (as I recently learned that my friend Mike Headd is not, despite his having read the blog for nearly a year), it is my proprietary player ranking calculation. IPM stands for Impacts Per Minute, and more about the methodology is available here. I update IPM rankings for all players weekly (here) as well as team power rankings (here). All of this information is also avaliable through the links on the right side of the page.

I’m writing the preview under the assumption that the playoff matchups will not change in the next couple of days. If they do then I will update them accordingly.

Listed next to the team names are each team’s power rank for their offense, defense and overall for the last six weeks. The information is also given here.

On to the preview:

Eastern Conference

1 vs 8. Boston (#4 Offense, #1 Defense, #2 Overall) vs. Atlanta (#9 Offense, #18 Defense, #16 Overall): Welcome back to the big time, Hawks. Blink and you will miss it. Obviously the Celtics completely outclass Atlanta in this series, and it looks to be a 4-0 sweep.

4 vs 5. Cleveland (#13 Offense, #9 Defense, #10 Overall) vs. Washington (#12 Offense, #15 Defense, #14 Overall): The Cavs haven’t really jelled as much as I thought they would since their deadline trades, only going 13-12. They have, however, played a little better than their record, as my numbers say they have underachieved by two games. Washington is struggling to reintegrate Gilbert Arenas into their rotation, and the combination of home court advantage and LeBron James should make this series a pretty easy Cleveland win. I say the Cavs in 5.

3 vs. 6. Orlando (#20 Offense, #6 Defense, #13 Overall) vs. Toronto (#10 Offense, #13 Defense, #12 Overall): This is an interesting matchup — I feel that Orlando has overachieved all season and Toronto has underachieved. They come into this series as an even matchup, but I feel that the point guards will decide this series — and I think that Toronto has a huge advantage there. I’m calling the upset here — Raptors in six.

2 vs. 7. Detroit (#8 Offense, #3 Defense, #3 Overall) vs. Philadelphia (#11 Offense, #11 Defense, #9 Overall): The only Eastern Conference matchup that features two top ten teams over the last six weeks, the Sixers could make some noise against Detroit. However, I think that the Pistons’ veteran savvy will carry this one pretty easily. Pistons in 5.

Western Conference

1 vs 8. LA Lakers (#2 Offense, #12 Defense, #4 Overall) vs. Denver (#3 Offense, #29 Defense, #19 Overall): Despite getting the edge over Golden State by beating them this week, the Nuggets are staggering to the finish line. Recent losses to Seattle and Sacramento highlight the absolute defensive collapse that they are suffering as they abandon that end of the floor to concentrate on scoring. Their home court advantage will win them a game or two, but they cannot seriously challenge Kobe and the Lakers. Lakers in six.

4 vs 5. Utah (#1 Offense, #4 Defense, #1 Overall) vs. Houston (#15 Offense, #5 Defense, #7 Overall): Utah has been the best team in the league for several months, but it hasn’t been borne out in their record, as they have underachieved by 5 games in the last six weeks. The problem is that they are simply dominant at home (36-4) but subpar on the road (17-23). That makes home court advantage the deciding factor in this series, which will be up in the air until the final day. Houston has one more game left than Utah, giving them an edge on getting home court. Even without Yao, the Rockets have been one of the best teams of the second half this season, and maybe this finally is the year that T-Mac finally gets out of the first round. My prediction? Lets see who gets home court advantage. Either way this will be the best first round series (which is saying somethng) and whoever is at home for game seven will prevail.

3 vs. 6. San Antonio (#23 Offense, #2 Defense, #6 Overall) vs. Phoenix (#7 Offense, #14 Defense, #11 Overall): Now the playoffs begin and the Spurs turn it on. One reason their numbers look so bad is that they limit Manu Ginobli’s minutes so much in the regular season. Once he starts playing a little more, look for them to get that much better. Meanwhile, I think that the Suns’ acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal will be exposed as a mistake in the playoffs — in the last six weeks their offensive and defensive rankings have all declined from their full season rankings. Spurs in seven.

2 vs. 7. New Orleans (#5 Offense, #7 Defense, #5 Overall) vs. Dallas (#6 Offense, #10 Defense, #8 Overall): After the acquisition of Jason Kidd, this is the worst possible matchup for Dallas. Kidd couldn’t stay in front of Tony Parker in the finals six years ago, what makes Dallas think he can check Chris Paul now? Meanwhile, the Mavs traded away their best matchup against Paul, Devin Harris, and in the process fell from the #3 seed to the #7. This is actually a pretty close matchup with two top-ten teams, but the Hornets are simply a little better at both ends of the court. Hornets in seven.

I’n not going to call the second round, but I guess I should give my finals prediction: Boston over San Antonio.

ESPN is reporting that the Bucks will announce (possibly as soon as Monday) that Pistons VP of Basketball Operations John Hammond will become the new General Manager in Milwaukee.

The news gets even better: apparently his #1 target to replace Larry Krystkowiak has head coach will be Rick Carlisle.

Hammond has been with the Pistons’ front office since 2001-02 (Carlisle’s frist season in Detroit). Hammond was also an assistant coach for the Pistons and Clippers from 1997-2001, working under Alvin Gentry in both locations.

Some moves the Pistons made during Hammond’s tenure:
– Signed Chauncey Billups
– Traded Jerry Stackhouse for Richard Hamilton
– Drafted Tayshaun Prince
– Traded for Rasheed Wallace
– Drafted Darko Millicic ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade (Yikes!)

Well, the Milicic draft aside, Hammond has had his hand in plenty of great moves. Considering they have only had one high draft pick in that time, they have done a pretty good job in filling out their bench with draftees (Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, Rodney Stuckey). They also did a nice job of letting Ben Wallace walk at the right time, and also turned Carlos Delfino into two future second round picks from Toronto. Basically, the Pistons have been the poster children for responsible roster and salary cap management.

What does this all mean for the current Bucks players? Open season on anyone not named “Bogut”.

If they do in fact hire Carlisle, he likes a slow-paced game that centers around defense. We can pretty much kiss Mo Williams goodbye then, and no matter how much money Yi brings to the franchise, if he can’t either become a rebounding force or move to small forward then he’s coming off of the bench.

Today, I am happy.

UPDATE: The Bucks.com press release.

There are a couple of interesting tidbits floating around here, not the least is the story that the Bucks are seriously considering hiring Phoenix Suns’ Director of Player Personnel David Griffin to be the next GM.

It is a little tough to judge Griffin on what he has done since taking his current position since the Suns have one of the most impossible owners in the league to work with in Robert Sarver. Since buying the team, Sarver has mandated that the Suns compete for a championship while still keeping under the luxury tax with a roster that includes three max- or near-max contracts. As a result, Sarver has short-circuited the teams present and future by forcing them to sell picks for cap space. This has served the purpose of weakening their current team (you think having Rajon Rondo and Luol Deng would help them now?), destroying their salary structure (by their math, trading Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaq actually saves them money) and mortgaging their future (no Deng, Rondo, or their first rounders in 2008 or 2010).

But what Griffin did — or, at least was a part of — from 2001 to 2005 was a thing of beauty.

Griffin has been with the Suns for 11 years and was promoted to his current position in August of 2004 after three years as the assistant director of player personnel. His job description as the assistant “included player evaluation for the draft and free agency”, which is a positive thing because in that time the Suns made a series of truly ingenious moves — and one can only assume that came with his input:

2001: Traded for Joe Johnson.
2002: Drafted Amare Stoudemire, a very ballsy pick considering the character and maturity questions surrounding Stoudemire, and the availability of Caron Butler at the time.
2004: Traded Stephon Marbury to New York (which doesn’t really qualify as “ingenious”), collecting a ton of draft picks.
2004: Signed Steve Nash (”ingenious”).
2005: Worked out sign-and-trade for Joe Johnson, netting Boris Diaw and three first round picks.

The Suns have made a series of blunders, some of which may reflect poorly on Griffin (drafting Zarko Cabarkapa, signing Marcus Banks) and some which probably don’t (re-signing Boris Diaw, selling every draft pick they can).

It’s impossible to pass judgement on any GM candidate without actually knowing him, but based on the evidence, David Griffin looks like a solid candidate.

Another name that has been bouncing around a little is that of Raptors assistant GM Maurizio Gherardini. To tell you the truth, I don’t think this rumor has any legs. Apparently Gery Woefel mentioned his name on WSSP, and this got back to the Toronto Sun. The Sun then reported (in my favorite lazy-reporter trick) that “Well-respected Raptors assistant general manager Maurizio Gherardini has been linked to the vacant GM post in Milwaukee” in a story that includes nothing attributing it to any source. My guess is that the reporter read about Woefel’s comments on a message board and ran with it.

Gherardini has a reputation as one of the finest basketball minds in Europe, with a front office career that dates back to 1975. His sterling record as the GM of Benneton Treviso from 1992 to 2006 (seven Italian Cups and three Italian Supercups, which sounds really cool) is where his reputation was really made.

However, Gherardini has only worked for the Raptors for two seasons, and thus has spent relatively little time actually involved with American players (besides those who weren’t quite good enough for the NBA and were looking to play in Italy). Also, being successful as the GM of a team like Benneton isn’t all that impressive — most European leagues are set up so that the teams with the most free-spending owners are able to set up Yankees-style juggernaunts that result in championships usually being distributed among the same three or four teams every year.

Maybe my ugly-American bias is showing, but I can’t really see how Gherardini would have the familiarity with American players or the connections with other front-office members to be an effective GM. I’m sure he’s a great guy to have around for his insights on European players, though.

Much love for everyone in Bucks Nation who was alert enough to spy Herb Kohl interviewing Suns VP of Basketball Operations David Griffin.

A big thanks to Frank at Brew Hoop who appears to have put the initial story together with some help from others on RealGM.

As far as Griffin as a GM goes, I have no idea how good he would be.  I’ll let Brett dissect that at some point if it happens.