The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

• Ramon Sessions on the Wikipedia
• Ramon Sessions on NBA.com
• Ramon Sessions on ESPN.com

I am pleased to announce that I have made an upgrade to my IPM rankings — thanks to the geniuses at www.82games.com, they kept track of charges this season and so I was able to add them into the ranking. I’ve been waiting for this. The rankings don’t change much (Andrew Bogut gets a little boost), but I still feel it helps with accuracy a bit. The rankings are available here.

But the real improvement is that I have added a defensive component to IPM, making this ranking truly unique — not only does it include charges, but also defense. I’m mighty proud of it.

The idea for a defensive ranking came from this article by Jon Nichols at 82games.com. His method — called Defensive Composite Score — ranked players by three categories, summed the rankings, and then ranked them by percentage to come up with a 0-100 ranking. His categories were athleticism ratio (if you are familiar with my draft preview, I also used it there. It is blocks+steals/fouls), Dean Oliver’s Defensive Rating (a single number developed and described in the book Basketball on Paper) and on court/off court differential.

I took Nichols’ DCS, tweaked it and took it a step further. First, I added charges to the athleticism ratio (blocks+steals+offensive fouls drawn/fouls committed). After getting the individual ratings, I took my team defensive IPM score in order to add a “team adjustment” to each individual. Then I adjusted for how much each player was responsible for their teams’ defensive IPM, by backing out each player to determine how much better or worse each team would be had he not been on the team. Finally (and I wish I didn’t have to do this, but the data demanded it) I inputted a position adjustment to reflect the fact that big men have much more difficult demands on their defense.

I absolutely hate position adjustments, and feel that if you have to use them then there is a flaw in your methodology because you can then just change a players’ ranking by changing their position — even though they don’t always play the same position. It’s a major flaw that also crops up in the “Wages of Wins” school of thought, but that’s a whole other story.

Anyway, I then had an adjusted score that I could convert to IPM, and by combining IPM with the Defensive IPM I obtained a final, all-around ranking. Because the rules of basketball are slanted toward offense I weighted the combined rankings as 75% IPM and 25% defensive IPM. Basically, I figured that since a 25 ppg scorer would likely score 35 points against the worst defender but about 20 against the best defender, you can’t truly assume the two systems are equal. A great defensive player will still allow enough scoring that he has to at least be able to pick up a little slack at the offensive end.

The ranking are available here.

What does the defensive ranking component tell us?

The most interesting thing is that it says that in the case of top players, they usually bring the goods at both ends of the floor. It makes some sense — logically great players like LeBron, KG and Kobe are so superior athletically that they can dominate at both ends. So the players who don’t have their overall rankings changed very much when defensive IPM is included tend to be the best players (or, like Matt Carroll, they just suck at both offense and defense).

What was also interesting was looking at the players who had their rankings changed the most by adding defensive IPM. It clearly shows that there are some “winning”, “intangible” skills that some players bring and that some lack.

It doesn’t come as much surprise that the players who had their rankings improved the most were the known offensively-challenged defensive specialists: Shane Battier, Ben Wallace, and Anderson Varejao types. But what was interesting was that of the 40 players who had their rankings improved by the most (among those who averaged 20 mpg), 30 of them made the playoffs this season. At the other end of the spectrum, among the 40 20mpg+ offensive specialists who were hurt the most by incorporating defensive rankings (Eddy Curry, Ben Gordon, Hakim Warrick …. Charlie Villanueva) 30 of them missed the playoffs. Coincidence? I think not.

What does this ranking system tell us about some of the Bucks?

Charlie Villanueva must go. While Charlie V’s offensive IPM was decent (0.7756, #116 overall) his team-worst 0.508 defensive IPM dropped his overall ranking 58 spots to #176. Quite simply, Villanueva is a pretty average offensive player who doesn’t defend well enough to make him a net-positive player.

Michael Redd should stay. Redd suffered through an awful offensive season by his standards and had a pretty lousy defensive IPM to boot, but when it was all said and done his overall ranking dropped by 19 spots. However, Redd is good enough offensively to score 25 a night and get to the line 10 times, while attempting to replace him would likely lead to a replacement who is moderately better defensively but much, much worse offensively. And Redd is likely to be better on offense next season.

Mo Williams should go. Mo’s 0.625 defensive IPM lowered his overall ranking by 25 spots, which pretty much negates all of the strides his offensive game has made. Added to that is the way Mo’s decision making seems to make the game harder on his teammates, and he winds up looking like a real drag on the team.

Andrew Bogut should sign that extension. When charges were added, Bogut’s IPM rose to 0.910, which is borderline-all-star level. At his age, there is still plenty of time for Bogut to mature into a solid contributor for a good team. Bogut’s defense was also the best on the team, which suggests that once Scott Skiles beats some defensive responsibility into his teammates, he should be able to become the centerpiece of a pretty good defense.

Yi was … good defensively? I don’t know about this one. Yi’s defensive IPM was pretty good, but I think that Yi gets a big assist from Bogut here. Bogut would always guard the oppositions’ best big, and Yi’s on/off court differential looks a little better than it is because he got hurt a little before the team really cratered. Yi has a lot of work to do next year — and he owes it to Bogut for making his numbers look good this season.

Thank God Royal Ivey is gone. Having a defensive specialist can be a good strategy. However, Ivey was so bad offensively that even great defense couldn’t make him a net-positive player. But Ivey, despite maybe looking good here and there, was lousy defensively as well — his 0.523 DefIPM was the second worst on the team. Charlie Bell’s DefIPM was awful as well, but he gets a pass because he was thrown to the wolves at small forward way too often. How can a 6′3″ player be expected to guard LeBron James straight up?

Ramon Sessions isn’t as good as the numbers say. While Sessions had the best offensive and defensive IPM on the team, don’t forget that his 17 games played amounted to 450 minutes of extended garbage time. Nobody was very serious about guarding him and there wasn’t much incentive for him to play much defense beyond gambling for steals. He’ll be a good backup, but he’s not nearly as good as the numbers think.

And there’s my two cents for John Hammond.

Now that this season is finally over, it is time to recap the contributions of each player. I’m not a big fan of giving letter grades, especially since when you consider that the Bucks’ record this season was actually worse than last years’ injury-marred one, everybody associated with this team pretty much deserves an “F-“. Except for my season ticket rep, Nick. He has been great this season, always accommodating and helpful.

So I’ve decided to grade each player on how responsible they were for Larry Krystkowiak getting fired.

I’m going to review each player over the course of the next several days in reverse order of their salary, and also am giving their final IPM (data for all players available here). As you may know, typically an IPM greater than 0.9 is borderline all-star level, over 0.8 is that of a solid starter, above 0.7 is a useful player, and below 0.6 means you were probably hurting the team more than helping it. Also, because it is a per-minute measurement, it becomes much more accurate the more minutes you play – so take Ramon Session’s ranking with a grain of salt. He’s not really the 33rd best player in the NBA.

Ramon Sessions ($427K, 0.931 IPM): Thank you Larry Harris for this wonderful parting gift. Sessions was the lone bright spot of the end of the season, as he provided a boost with his pass-first game and eye popping statistics, highlighted by 127 assists vs. only 36 turnovers. The knee-jerk reaction is to jettison Mo Williams and turn the point guard spot over to Sessions, but let’s not get too excited just yet.

The red flag about Sessions is that his impressive play ran counter to his career style. In college and the NBDL, Sessions was a ball-dominating scorer who was hard to keep off of the free throw line, but once coming to the NBA he concentrated on passing first and shooting second. The results, when accompanied by some less-than-intense defense on the part of the Bucks’ opponents, were some excellent box scores (45 points, 38 assists, 15 rebounds and 5 turnovers on 18-29 shooting in the final two games). One has to wonder what will happen next season when he plays against teams that actually want to play defense against him.

The only reason for the Bucks to go into next season with Sessions as the starter is if they win the draft lottery and take Derrick Rose, but Sessions will clearly be a valuable reserve next season. Just think – a bench player who can actually create an offensive set and draw a foul once in a while!

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

David Noel ($687K): Lost for the season to a shoulder injury, we will never get to see what Noel might have brought to the table this season. With the signing of Awvee Storey, Noel would most likely have been in the D-League or wearing a suit on the bench all season, anyway.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Awvee Storey ($770K, 0.647 IPM): I can only see one reason why Storey was given a guaranteed contract in the first place: because Storey’s agent Mark Bartlestein is Mo Williams’ agent as well, and by helping out another client Larry Harris was trying to enlist Bartelstein to persuade Mo to stay in Milwaukee rather than head for Miami. How’d that one work out, Larry?

After an embarrassing 2006-07 season which saw Storey kicked out of the D-League for putting a teammate into a coma (and then breaking an opposing players’ rib while boxing him out in a German League game) it was amazing that Storey simply wasn’t blackballed out of the league in the first place.

The signing sort of made some sense at the time – Storey was veteran insurance in case Bobby Simmons couldn’t go after missing the previous season and/or the Desmond Mason signing turned out to be a bust (which it would have been had Mason played as poorly as he did with the Hornets). But why, then, give Storey a guaranteed contract? By the time his deal would have to be picked up the Bucks would have known what they had in their top two small forwards. They could have then released Storey before his contract became guaranteed and had an open roster spot to audition young players who may have been worth a shot (such as Nick Fazekas, the Mavericks second round pick who became Sessions’ top running mate for the NBDL’s Tulsa 66ers. Fazekas was released by the Mavs, signed by the Clippers, and would put up a 0.88 IPM in 26 games for them). Oh yes, he was given a guaranteed contract because of his agent.

But it seems that Krystkowiak couldn’t stand Storey’s game anyway. After Desmond Mason got hurt and Simmons simply sucked, instead of inserting Storey into the rotation Coach K continued to trot out Charlie Bell and Michael Redd at the small forward position. Storey wound up only seeing action in 26 games, with 90% of that coming after the season was long lost.

Probably the most pathetic thing is that Storey finished the season with the Bucks’ 6th best IPM, behind only Sessions, Bogut, Williams, Redd and Villanueva. The guy doesn’t even belong in the league and he was their best per-minute bench player this season!

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Royal Ivey ($798K, 0.548 IPM): Iveys’ reputation as a great defender sure got him a lot of playing time this season, and what a waste that was. Ivey must have really shut down Dee Brown and Scoonie Penn in his Bucks tryout, because despite all evidence to the contrary, Coach K kept on using Ivey as his “defensive stopper.�

There were two problems with that strategy – even if Ivey’s defense was absolutely awesome, there was no way it would make up for his own putrid offense (he actually finished with the lowest IPM on the team). However, there is no evidence whatsoever that Ivey’s defense was any good, either. According to 82games.com, the production of the player that Ivey was guarding averaged out to double that of what Ivey produced himself.

I don’t understand how any team could expect to win more than about 26 games if they are giving Royal Ivey 20 minutes a night. Yet, Coach K kept going back to him, probably because his “energy in practice� and “defensive intensity� (meaning: he looks really disappointed in himself when he gets beat) were there.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 12%

Michael Ruffin ($1.0M, 0.610 IPM): I really liked the idea of signing Ruffin, because I felt that a team with so much offensive talent on it could use a defensive banger like him. Ruffin is the most inept offensive player in NBA history, but has carved out a nice niche for himself as a guy who comes in, throws his body around, gives some hard fouls, grabs some boards and stays out of the way of the talented players. He’s useful.

The Bucks even played a little better with him on the floor than off, being outscored by 8.4 points per game without him but only 2.2 ppg with him. Ruffin did his job. He won’t help you win, but he doesn’t help you lose, and he makes it all look pretty ugly.

Ruffin, however, was the centerpiece of the Play That Probably Sealed Larry Krystkowiak’s Fate As Bucks Coach. After blowing a 17 point third quarter lead to the New York Knicks, and with the Bucks trailing by one with three seconds remaining, Krystkowiak inexplicably left Ruffin in the game for the final play. Even Isiah Thomas realized this and started coaching long enough to tell the Knicks defense to leave Ruffin open in order to deny everyone else the ball. Ruffin was then left to miss a 6-foot finger roll at the buzzer.

Michael Ruffin has scored 4.2 points per 36 minutes in his nine year NBA career, and Larry Krystkowiak put him into a position to take the final shot in a game. And now Krystkowiak is looking for a new job. Need I say more?

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 3%

Next up: The mysteries known as Charlie V, Jake V, and Yi.

You might think that, given that he has provided the only bright spots for the team in the last few months.

Of course I jest, but I think that even in this brief glimpse of extended minutes for Session, we have all seen enough to be able to say that getting him was a nice going-away present from Larry Harris. A long-term starter … well, let’s hold off on a judgement like that just yet.

Sessions has put up a very solid 0.823 IPM in his first 10 games (just behind Mo’s 0.855), which would rank him about #30 among guards, had he played a whole season. In the four games in which Sessions has played
significant minutes he has played very efficiently, racking up more assists (31) than shots (29). He has also averaged 3 rebounds per game. According to 82games.com, Sessions has consistently outplayed his opponents. While at point guard he has averaged a 21.2 PER while holding his counterpart to a 12.8 (while Mo averages a 19.3 and his counterpart a 19.8). These numbers are very flawed — especially for someone who has played so few minutes and often against backups, but they still give an indication about how efficient Sessions has been.

While Sessions won the Washington game with his last-second jumper, the pessimist must note that Sessions did almost cost the Bucks their two wins this month, with his late foul of Quentin Richardson giving him three free throws to win (he only made two) and his foul of Gilbert Arenas with 15 seconds remaining against the Wizards gave them the lead and set the stage for the game-winner. So it’s not as though the results on the court have been that dramatically better.

One thing that is interesting is that the Bucks’ defense has improved — in a manner of speaking — since Sessions started seeing the court. By IPM Rankings, the Bucks are the 26th best defensive team for the season, but over the last two weeks they are a much more respectable 17th. But a look at the numbers shows that the Bucks haven’t actually improved — they are exactly the same but a bunch of teams around them have packed it in for the season and seen their numbers plummet. But since most teams would tend to fall apart after they are eliminated from the playoffs, I guess that Sessions’ impact cannot be discounted in helping the team keep trying at the same level as before.

I guess the one thing that makes me hold reservations that Sessions can keep playing at this level is that he is playing very differently than he usually does. In college and in the NBDL (where he averaged close to 25/7/7) he has been a scoring point guard who shoots a low percentage but makes up for it by getting to the line. It seems like every single NBDL box score I looked at saw him taking at least 15 free throws.

Sessions is only shooting a pretty typical 36%, but he has been doing a nice job of limiting his shots. This has kept him off of the line, but has also kept his low percentage from hurting the team (better you shoot 2-6 with 8 assists than 6-18 with nine assists). While he is doing a great job so far, I wonder what would happen should he go back to his old ways.

A long-term starter? I don’t really think so.

An excellent backup, strong enough to score and big enough to defend? Definitely.

According to the New York Daily News, the Bucks (and the Knicks) have been pursuing Indiana Pacers CEO Donnie Walsh to join the front office next season.

This would be a good hire, as Walsh was the architect of the Pacers’ run of success dating back to the early 90’s, but considering that there are other teams in the mix and that he is 67 years old, I’d guess that his actually coming to Milwaukee would be a long shot. The more important story is that it signals the end for Larry Harris.

Reading between the lines, it has been pretty obvious that Harris was about done. Their failure to make any moves, the rumors about the ridiculous Zach Randolph, and Kohl’s silence about extending Harris’ contract were signals, but if they are now actively pursuing a replacement, it’s a done deal. And it’s time, too. Harris assembled this team and now it needs changes. Those changes are tough to make if you are emotionally invested in bringing the current pieces in.

I know that money talks and the Knicks can offer far more money than the Bucks can, but honestly Milwaukee would probably be a more appealing destination for Walsh.

Consider the pros and cons:

Knicks

Significantly higher salary.
Seemlingly unlimited roster budget.
Money no object for hiring coaches and assistants.
Ridiculous roster makes it impossible to make major changes until 2009/10.
Roster contains three players who would have any trade value (Lee, Balkman, Robinson).
Walsh is from New York.
Owes a future first round pick to Utah.
Horrible, insular working nvironment and culture at Madison Square Garden.
Owner is completely insane.
Highest paid player is completely insane.

Bucks:

Limited cap manuverability until 2010.
Five potential trade chips in case of a major overhaul (Redd, Williams, Bogut, Yi, Villanueva).
Location is closer to Indianapolis-based family.
Payroll limited to below luxury tax.

Money aside, the Bucks job is far more appealing. Would you honestly want to work for James Dolan? Would you really want to take on a complete organizational housecleaning at 67 years old? Wouldn’t you rather have the Bucks’ relatively inexpensive core to work with over the Knicks’ completely disjointed one?

Anyway, I’m sure that the Knicks checkbook will carry the day in this battle, while the Pacers’ current VP of Basketball Operations, David Morway, might be the Bucks’ consolation prize as their next GM.

Meanwhile, I attended my first Bucks game in a couple of weeks last night against the Heat, and I came away thoroughly perplexed.

It cannot be overstated just how bad the Heat are right now. They dressed nine players. They are missing their three best projected opening night starters (Wade and Haslem out, Shaq gone). Marion was a nonfactor, playing 28 minutes and with the Bucks outscoring the Heat by 10 with him in. They were so starved for wins that their bench was acting like it was game seven of the finals. Jason Williams actually looked interested!

Clearly the Bucks should have won this game going away, but that isn’t the only thing that has me confused. The season is now lost, so at this point shouldn’t learning a little about your team be a goal, instead of tossing out the same old lineups that haven’t worked all season?

Instead, after the game, Krystkowiak talked to the Journal Sentinel and vaguely blamed his players.

“We’ve talked about just about everything,” (Krystkowiak) said. “I’m not afraid to repeat some stuff but it’s frustrating. We need to be self-starters. We’ll look at the plan . . . what broke down as far as the tactical approach. . . . We’ll see as coaches if we can fix that and not put ourselves in the (same) position.

“Players have to take more responsibility. We all have to. Everybody has to step up a little bit here. It’s not a time for speeches and a lot of talk. It’s getting out and playing.”

I don’t really understand what Krystkowiak is trying to say here. I guess he’s decided that his players aren’t doing what he wants them to for whatever reason. But who is that really an indictment of? Doesn’t that reflect back on him?

I think that this was a veiled shot at Mo Williams’ defense, specifically his complete inability to get through picks and keep Jason Williams from getting open 3 after open 3. It got so bad that eventually Krystkowiak switched Mason onto Jason Williams (which didn’t stop Chris Quinn from getting 3 open 3’s himself in the 4th quarter).

But my real problem with Krystkowiak in this game was my usual complaint about him — lack of imagination. It’s time to realize that some new lineups — for a few minutes at a time — are necessary. Just a couple of adjustments might have given a little insight into the team, and maybe even saved the game.

Two examples:

When the Bucks were cruising along with a 13 point lead in the 3rd quarter I turned to my friend and said, “Now’s the time to bring in Yi for Mason.” Yi looks awful right now, and seems to be moving at half speed, but he did an okay job against Marion in the first half and that would have moved Villanueva to the 3. This was a perfect situation to try a big lineup out. How would Villanueva have looked matched up with Ricky Davis? What would Pat Riley have done? If it doesn’t work and Miami runs off a quick 6-0 run, then take Yi out.

In the fourth quarter, when the Bucks were in the process of blowing the game but hadn’t quite lost the lead yet, Krystkowiak gave Mo a rest and trotted out a lineup of Ivey-Bell-Mason-Yi-Ruffin. How, exactly, is that supposed to work? Who is supposed to score? With Yi in such a funk, not one of those players is remotely capable of creating a shot. Not surprisingly, that lineup was on the floor while Miami would take their eventual lead. Why not use Sessions in that situation? You would get a real point guard in there, someone who is bigger who might be able to defend a pick-and-roll a little better, and he would be matched up against a relatively poor defender (either Jason Williams or Chris Quinn). Don’t you want to see what you have in Sessions, even if it’s only for a couple of minutes at a time?

Either way, it is clear: from his actions during the game and his comments after it, Krystkowiak is missing the point: winning is still the goal, but the time has come to accept that what you have done to this point hasn’t worked. It’s time to think up some new options with an eye toward the future. If you are going to lose to Miami anyway, it’s pointless to lose to them by doing the exact same things that have carried you to 43 other losses this season.

In an incredible bit of bad luck, Ramon Sessions fractured his left hand in his first practice with the Bucks on Friday.

He will be out for six weeks.

That’s too bad — his loss means the Bucks will still have to press along with a shorthanded four-person backcourt, even after Michael Redd returns.

In a long, long, long, long overdue move, the Bucks finally decided that having a fifth guard on the active roster is a good idea. They brought up Ramon Sessions from Tulsa.

Sessions had been spectacular in the D-League, averaging 21.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 7.6 apg and 1.6 spg. His IPM was 1.05, which at the NBA level would solidly be that of a superstar, but his numbers will lose a lot in the translation to the big leagues.

The one concern is the 3.5 turnovers per game, which isn’t that big a deal — if you’ve never tried watching an NBDL game, don’t bother. They kind of seem like all-star games made up of bad players. Not much offense except for one-on-one isolations, not much defense except for gambling for steals.

While Sessions isn’t a great 3-point shooter (33%), he appears to have a gift for getting to the line. In his last two D-League games he took 31 free throws (hitting 26). He also shot 50% and racked up 26 assists.

I simply cannot believe that he has spent the entire season in Tulsa to this point, but in the long run getting 37 minutes per game so far this season can only be considered beneficial.

But why call him up now, when Redd and Mason are returning? Why not a week ago?

While the fact that the Bucks have gotten blown out ten times so far this season has been a neverending source of frustration, if there was ever a night where it is no big deal it was Wednesday night in Philadelphia.

Of course, losing by over 40 is never acceptable, but once the Bucks were down by 19 at the half, there was no telling how bad it would get.

After seven games in nine days, and missing Redd as well, it was no surprise that this game would be a problem. Philly is a lousy matchup for a Bucks team with a thin backcourt, as their best players — Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Louis Williams — would be able to stress the Bucks defenders and Samuel Dalembert is a pretty tough matchup for Andrew Bogut. Also, while the Bucks were playing a back-to-back, the Sixers were coming off of a three-day rest.

I do have two questions, though:

Doesn’t it look like Yi needs some rest? Whether it’s hitting the “rookie wall” or just simply being tired from playing constantly since the NBA Draft, Yi Jianlian is playing horribly right now. Less than two weeks after I wrote that the most impressive thing about him has been his consistency, his game has really fallen apart. He has gone through his worst five-game stretch of the season, and he has fallen off in every way. He hasn’t scored in double digits in 8 games, his rebounding has been below average in five of his last six, and his “Curry Ratio” (defined in this post) has been subpar in 7 straight games. He has been awful offensively (IPM of 0.6 or less in 7 straight — below 0.6 is “you are hurting the team more than helping” territory) and his defense has slipped, only blocking two shots in 8 games.

It really seems like the guy is tired, and maybe after the Houston game, Yi should come off of the bench for a couple of games.

With Redd hurt, why wasn’t Sessions called up? The Bucks only have four guards on the roster anyway, but with Redd out and Bell playing some small forward, they only had two full time guards available. Doesn’t it seem like three games in four nights is a little long to go with such a shorthanded backcourt? It’s not as though it was a cost savings move — while in the NBDL, Sessions still gets his NBA paycheck. At the very least, Sessions could have played the fourth quarter against Philadelphia.

The shorthanded backcourt was also a problem against New Jersey as Kidd-Carter-Jefferson gets a big edge over Williams-Ivey-Bell. Not that it’s likely Sessions would have turned one of those losses into wins, but at least he could have helped spell the starters some.

Other than that, I don’t have many other specific complaints about the Philadelphia game. They were screwed from the beginning. The Bucks’ defense was horriffic, but with Yi playing poorly, then Bogut can only do so much to help the guards when they get blown past. Mo has enough trouble guarding point guards his own size, what is he supposed to do against Vince Carter and Andre Iguodala? With Yi doing badly then my master strategy of moving Villanueva to the 3 isn’t an option, and thus his weak interior defense contributes to the problem. I think the only thing I might have done differently would have been to throw in the towel even earlier than Krystkowiak did, and taken Bogut out for good after Philly pushed their third quarter lead to 24.

It’s still an embarrassing loss, and at some point the team isn’t going to keep brushing off the blowouts. Hopefully they get back on track against Houston, a game that is supposed to mark the return of both Michael Redd and Desmond Mason.

Now that Larry Harris has been the GM of the Bucks for 4 full seasons, how good of a job has he done? He has built a young team with little future flexibility, as 8 players are under contract for between 3-6 years and nearly all of them should still be at or near their prime for the entire duration of their contracts. To his credit, Harris has not been afraid to make bold moves but one problem with locking up players to long contracts is that you are bound to reach some bad deals — and his bad ones have had major implications for the future of the franchise.

I think that the problem with Harris that he is either way too optimistic for his job or such a huckster salesman that he believes his own spiel too much. One of the most difficult things for a talent evaluator to do is to bring a guy in and then later admit he has made a mistake, which is something that Harris has had a major problem with. Before last season he was telling everyone who would listen that his team wasn’t just ready to make the playoffs, but to win a round; and even after the team had completely fallen apart he was still making moves as if he intended to make a playoff run once the team got healthy (such as by adding Earl Boykins and risking that Boykins would not opt-out of his contract).

However, this seasons results have shown that last years’ team was nowhere near a playoff contender in the first place. Is this young team a contender down the road? As currently composed, I’m not sure it is. It should get better, but there is no more cap flexibility for the foreseeable future so remaking the roster will get more and more difficult. The only way this team leaps into the Eastern Conference elite is if Yi becomes a star, and it’s still very difficult to predict that.

Many people often claim that Harris has no real power, and all the major decisions are actually made by Herb Kohl. While that may be true to a certain extent, any GM has to work within ownerships parameters, and no matter what the owner wants he does take advice from the GM. So I am going to leave Kohl’s influence out of my analysis, and also not discuss the coaching changes, which clearly were a result of past Herb Kohl relationships.

When Larry Harris was named GM on July 1, 2003, he inherited a complete mess. Ernie Grunfeld and George Karl had completely botched the franchise with a series of “lets win now�/�screw it, I’m outta here� moves that left the Bucks with almost no good, young talent except for Michael Redd and the newly drafted TJ Ford. They had nothing to show for Glenn Robinson, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell except for Toni Kukoc, Joe Smith and Ford (good thing since they threw their own 2003 pick away on Gary Payton).

Much is unfairly made of the Bucks drafting Dirk Nowitzki and trading him, but that’s not fair since it was a pre-arranged draft day trade – if the Bucks hadn’t done that deal then Dallas would have simply taken Nowitzki themselves at #5. But an even worse crime had already been inflicted on the Bucks by Grunfeld and Karl.

In 2001, Grunfeld had traded the Bucks’ 2004 first round pick for nothing in order to clear cap space to sign Anthony Mason. This disastrous signing of an aging, overrated player with a massive attitude problem both tore the team apart and cost them the #17 pick in the 2004 draft, which turned out to be Josh Smith. That’s a bigger crime than the Nowitzki deal. You think the Bucks could use a 6’10� small forward who is averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks a game? No? Me neither.

Over the next four days I am going to analyze every major player transaction he has made during his tenure. Today I talk about the okay ones (ranging from “Good” to “Bad, but with an asterisk”. Tomorrow will be the seven “Great” to “Very Good” moves. Then the seven “Bad” to “Horrendous”, and, finally, “The One Move That Cannot Be Labeled”.)

Good Moves:

2005: Drafted Ersan Ilyasova. The young Turk was touted as a lottery pick before an ankle injury and rumors that he was in fact an older Uzbek torpedoed his draft stock. The Bucks have been searching for a big small forward ever since they didn’t get the chance to draft Josh Smith, and for a while it looked like they found one. Ilyasova shone in the NBDL his first year and was MVP of the Under-20 World Championships in the summer of 2006. Of course, the fact that he may have been 23 at the time may have something to do with him shining at that level, and his 2006 NBA campaign made him look like he never was an NBA athlete to begin with. He was still a reasonable risk, and Harris’ track record with European players was pretty good up to that point.

2005: Resigned Michael Redd (6 years/$95 million). I put this signing only in the “good� category because any idiot could have offered Redd the max to stay in Milwuakee and of course Redd’s agent (who gets a commission) would counsel him to take the extra money the Bucks could offer him over Cleveland’s deal. However, Harris’ salesman skills may have really shone in this free agency pursuit. Being second banana on a great team worked out just fine for Scottie Pippen, so I’m sure the opportunity to sign with his hometown team and run as LeBron’s wingman was tempting. I’m sure that Harris leaned on Redd pretty hard to show him that by leaving he’d be completely screwing the team that both gave him his big chance and dismantled its roster for him to shine. I’m sure at the time Redd was excited about the chance to lead his own team, but somehow I think that these days he keeps a pile of $100 bills on his nightstand to smack himself in the face with when he thinks about how he could have been in the finals last year.

2006: Signed Lynn Greer (2 yrs/1.5 million). Another European find, he had been a big scorer in Europe ever since the NBA realized that the best product John Chaney had ever put in the NBA was Mark Macon and took a pass on Greer. Unfortunately, Greer’s stay in Milwaukee was tragic, as his fiancée fell ill and passed away during the season. As a result, Greer missed time and never was used until well after the season was wasted. Greer would have been an able replacement for Charlie Bell this year, but after resigning Bell, Harris did Greer a favor and let him out of the final season of his contract in order to return to a better offer in Europe. It was still a good signing, just one that didn’t work out.

2006: Traded Jamaal Magloire for Steve Blake, Brian Skinner and Ha Seung Jin. Credit Harris for realizing that Magloire’s game had turned to crap and he had virtually no value whatsoever. Conventional wisdom would say that Magloire could be traded for a draft pick at the trade deadline, but Harris probably got as much back as he ever would, considering that Portland wasn’t able to move Magloire either. Besides, getting a pick back would probably have required the Bucks to take on some sort of longer salary commitment, which would have hurt them this past offseason.

2006: Traded Steve Blake for Earl Boykins and Julius Hodge. Given the way the Bucks season was going, this was a perfect trade for them. Boykins is the type of player that can sell some tickets, at 5’3� he’s an inspirational story, and can score a little, but he won’t help you win at all. Because of his height there’s simply no way he can come close to pulling his weight defensively, and his shoot-first mentality leaves his teammates more interested in strangling him than running the offense. Not a bad way to dump games. Fortunately for the Bucks, Boykins opted out of his contract (as expected), saving Milwaukee $3 million and pretty much making it possible to sign Desmond Mason. However, as what must come as a surprise to Boykins, he is still unemployed. Something is wrong with Julius Hodge – you would think that he’d be the perfect guy to have as the backup to Michael Redd for 10 minutes a game (6’7�, can defend a little) but something about him caused the Bucks to release him as quickly as they could.

2007: Resigned Mo Williams (6 years/$52 million). Good move to keep Mo, as he is still only 24 years old and will be a part of the team as he reaches his prime and despite Mo being the only reasonable option for the Bucks, Harris kept the contract offer from getting out of hand. Williams has built himself up into one of the better point guards in the league, and his career trajectory to this point actually looks a lot like Chauncey Billups’. For that to continue, Mo will have to develop two major skills that he currently does not have – namely, becoming a lockdown defender and a foul-drawing machine. However, those were both knocks on Billups as well (as was the “point guard who does nothing but shoot� label), and point guards have a history of peaking later in their careers than other players. Mo is smaller than Billups, so he will probably never reach those All-Star heights, but still this contract should provide fair value with a 5-10% chance of being a real bargain by the time it ends.

2007: Signed Desmond Mason (2 years/$10 million). My feelings about Mason’s game are well documented (way too inefficient offensively to help, overrated defensively, good hustle guy who should get 10-15 minutes a game) but this was a good signing, especially since it has become apparent that Bobby Simmons is not and may never again be the same player he once was. Harris got a great insurance policy at small forward in Mason – a great character guy who won’t complain should he not play much, but if he does, at least he never gives less than maximum effort. There weren’t really any better options available in free agency for that role, and while $5 million a year is a bit much that doesn’t bother me since the contract is only for two years.

2007: Drafted Ramon Sessions. He sure has played well in the NBDL.

Bad Moves (but with an asterisk)

2005: Signed Bobby Simmons (5 years/$47 million). Because of Simmons’ injury problems this deal hasn’t worked out, and it’s starting to look like Simmons might not be the same player any more after surgery on his feet. That’s a tough injury for a basketball player to recover from, and it’s a shame. In 2004 Simmons was the NBA’s most improved player, an award that historically hasn’t meant much, but the 4 previous winners were Zach Randolph, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal and Gilbert Arenas. Heady stuff. There’s no doubt that the Bucks overpaid for Simmons from the get-go, but Harris was under a lot of time pressure to get the deal done. They signed Simmons in the period between reaching an oral agreement with Michael Redd and actually signing him, so they technically used their cap space to get Simmons and then went over the cap to sign their own guy (Redd). Obviously it’s easy to look back now and say they should have offered Simmons’ contract to Gerald Wallace, but they didn’t have the time to sign the RFA Wallace and wait to see if Charlotte would match, and if they did then the Simmons opportunity might have been gone. Also, Harris could have done much, much worse as the rest of the free agent class of 2005 wound up being a complete disaster. It’s too bad that the Simmons signing will probably wind up being a bust, because it was the right move at the time.

2006: Traded TJ Ford for Charlie Villanueva. This is a hard trade to categorize as good or bad. It hasn’t worked out, but that’s not really anybody’s fault. Ford was a long way from being a good player after 3 seasons with the Bucks, but he only had played 1 ½ years due to injury. Mo was cheaper and an equally good player, so it only made sense to trade him, right? But it often takes point guards a long time to reach their potential, and while Ford busted out last season, it seemed to me that the improvement came more from being in a better situation for his game than actually improving. But then this year he definitely improved – and suddenly everybody holds their breath as the neck problem crops up. Clearly Ford will have to change his game to take less contact, but will he be as effective once he does? Charlie Villanueva is even more difficult to figure out. Such a tantalizing talent, but does he play physically enough to be a starting power forward? Is his head in the game consistently enough to be effective off the bench? I’m convinced that TJ has become a better player than he would have in the Bucks system (especially now that Krystkowiak has slowed the game down so much this season) and that ultimately, Charlie V will probably be playing somewhere else. What the Bucks get in that deal will be the final determinant of the quality of this trade.

Jeebus, has Ramon Sessions gotten off to a hot start for Tulsa.

In his first game he flirted with a triple-double, registering 27 points, 9 rebounds and 8 turnovers while on Saturday he dropped 34/6/6 on Sioux Falls while cutting the turnovers to 4.

He’s shot 18-32 from the field (not bad considering the knock on him coming out of college was that he couldn’t shoot) but most impressively has gone 23-27 from the foul line. Seems like he can get to the rim and draw contact just fine.

I’m not too worried about the turnovers, since NBDL games look like glorified pickup games. Lots of guys out for their own stats.

Maybe we’ll be seeing this guy in Milwaukee sooner rather than later.

It’s a common complaint about NBA GM’s that they don’t have the balls to pull off any big trades and that they would rather do nothing rather than take a risk. There may be something to that attitude, but the truth is that NBA trades are very difficult to consummate with all of the trade restrictions and salary cap considerations. The fact is that a big trade now will often completely hamstring you for the future, and if GM wants to trade a guy the chances are that they want to trade him because something is wrong with him.

But that didn’t stop me from trying to put together some trade scenarios for the Bucks. I came up with 14 possibilities, 3 or 4 of which might be considered by both teams. But, honestly, it’s tough to come up with realistic trades that wouldn’t be rejected immediately by one of the parties. But here we go:

First of all, there are so many restrictions on members of the Bucks roster that there aren’t too many trade pieces available. As newly-signed free agents the following players cannot be traded at least until Mid-December: Bell, Ivey, Mason, Ruffin, Storey, Voskuhl and Williams. The Bucks aren’t going to look to trade Bogut, Yi, or Redd. That leaves only Gadzuric, Noel, Sessions, Simmons and Villanueva as potential trade bait.

The other problem is that except for Villanueva the other players would have almost zero trade value around the league based on their talent. Any GM would probably immediately reject any deal for Bobby Simmons until he has proven he is healthy. Gadzuric’s contract is so long that he would be rejected unless the other team is really desperate for a big man or is sending back an even worse contract.

I ran all of the trade ideas through ESPN’s Trade Machine, and they all would work under the cap. Except for a couple of the trades, I didn’t assume draft picks would be included.

So, with all that in mind, here go the trade proposals:

Charlie Villanueva and Bobby Simmons to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko. The main reason for Utah to do this deal is money — they would save almost $30 million over the next 4 seasons and would have Simmons and (probably) Villanueva off the books by 2010, which is when extensions for Boozer and Deron Williams kick in. Kirilenko had a bad season last year and didn’t fit well in their system, plus he demanded a trade in the offseason. For the Bucks, this would be a sort of “all-in” big money move that would give them a very expensive, inflexible lineup fpr 4 years. Kirilenko would bring Milwaukee exactly what they need — defense — and his shooting shortcomings wouldn’t be a problem. Ultimately, though, Utah would decline this deal — Kirilenko is too important to their team defense to give up.

Dan Gadzuric to Charlotte for Adam Morrison and Jared Dudley. With Sean May out for the year and Primoz Brezec’s game declining to … well … something worse than Gadzuric, it would depend on how close Michael Jordan feels the Bobcats are to prime time. Would Gadzuric be a good player alongside Emeka Okafor? I doubt it, but you never know with MJ’s eye for talent. Morrison’s contract is only guaranteed through this season (so he would probably never play for the Bucks) and Dudley is a rookie making only $1.1 million this year, so the Bucks would save $20 million over the next 4 years. Dudley is an intriguing player, a combo forward who has already shown a solid nose for the ball and could be a good backup at both forward positions. However, I’m sure even Michael Jordan would turn down this trade, as Dudley is already better than Gadzuric and it’s a lot to ask for him to give up on Morrison so soon (although he probably should).

Simmons to Denver for Nene. This would be a dumb bad-contract swap for both teams. The Bucks would be getting the more expensive, more injury prone player who would be a career backup, while Denver would weaken their frontcourt. I only included this deal because it has been rumored in the past.

Villanueva to Golden State for Brandan Wright. This is an intriguing deal. Wright is getting no court time in Golden State, with Don Nelson preferring to play veterans. Villanueva would fit in perfectly in Nelson’s run-and-gun scheme. While Wright would take at least a season to blossom, at the very least he would provide an inexpensive backup to Bogut and Yi for 5 years. I think this would be a fair trade, and would be a huge boost to Villanueva’s career.

Gadzuric and David Noel to Houston for Steve Novak, Rafer Alston, and Luther Head. A good team with an eye on the championship can never have too many big, active bodies and Houston would probably be interested in getting rid of Alston, who was arrested twice in the offseason. Alston insists that neither incident was his fault, but his reputation around the league has dropped to somewhere between “bad guy” and “guy who bad stuff always seems to find” and Houston has Steve Francis available to take Alston’s minutes. Alston has 3 years left on his deal, so the Bucks would save 1 year and about $12 million in this trade. Head is a solid combo guard who can play some point, play good defense, and hit open shots. He would allow the Bucks to pursue trade opportunities for Charlie Bell, as Head does the same things for 1/3 the salary. Novak would sell some tickets. My guess is that the Rockets would jump at this trade if Head was not included and might take it if he was, but the Bucks would probably be very leery at the trail of problems that have followed Alston wherever he has been.

Gadzuric to Houston for Kirk Snyder, Luther Head, Steve Novak, and Carl Landry. Another version of the same trade that the Bucks would most likely jump at. Snyder is in the last year of his deal and is not getting any playing time, while Landry would throw another Milwaukee native into the mix. Would Houston gut the end of their bench and take on an extra $20+ million in long term salary to add a big man who can’t stay on the floor? I’d like to say so, but I doubt it.

Villanueva to Minnesota for Mark Madsen and Craig Smith. Smith was a steal in last season’s draft who is already the T-Wolves’ second best player while Madsen is one of the worst players in the NBA and has 3 years left on his contract. Smith would fit well on the Bucks, though, as he would bring tenacious rebounding and “bruiser” ability to a team that sorely needs it. Smith has a similar skill set as Al Jefferson, so the T-Wolves might be willing to include him if the reward is talent like Villanueva and getting rid of dead weight like Madsen. More likely, though, they would turn down the deal as they probably think they are set at forward for years with Jefferson and Brewer.

Gadzuric and Villanueva to New Jersey for Antoine Wright and Jason Collins. Once again, this is more of a salary dump than a talent upgrade for the Bucks. Wright is a bust who has shown some signs of life early in this season while Collins is a defensive-minded center who is owed $12 million over the next two seasons. This would save the Bucks $13 million in the long run, but the addition of Villanueva would be a big upgrade for New Jersey. This is a trade that I could see New Jersey doing (except that they need Wright with Vince Carter out right now) but the Bucks declining.

Gadzuric to New Orleans for Bobby Jackson. A dumb deal for both teams, except that Jackson only has two years left on his contract instead of 4. Kind of a pointless trade for both teams.

Gadzuric to Orlando for Pat Garrity and JJ Redick. A blatant salary dump by the Bucks, but one which Orlado might consider in their leave-no-stone-unturned efforts to find a power forward. Garrity is awful and Redick has yet to show himself to be remotely close to being an NBA athlete, but this could save the Bucks as much as $20 million. However, with 3 more years of Tony Battie and Howard’s extension starting next year, Orlando would probably rather sign a scrap-heap free agent instead of taking on a long contract.

Simmons and Gadzuric to Washington for Caron Butler and Darius Songalia. I only put this deal in the list because … well … it’s hard to come up with deals. Is Washington serious about blowing up their roster before Arenas opts out? Are the Wizards that anxious to add a big men with Etan Thomas’ season over and career in some doubt? Are they trading an All-Star for two bad contracts? No. Michael Jordan isn’t running the show there anymore.

Simmons to Phoenix for Boris Diaw and Marcus Banks. The Bucks would be adding a lot of salary in this deal and wouldn’t even begin to consider it unless Phoenix threw in lots of cash and multiple draft picks. I think we can write off Diaw’s 2005-06 season that got him his $45 million contract as a huge fluke and Banks has been horrendous for his whole career. The ever-cost sensitive Suns would love this offer, but it would be a bad idea for the Bucks that would send them careening off into luxury tax payment.

Simmons and Villanueva to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Brian Cook and a #1 pick. Would this satisfy Kobe? Probably not, but it would upgrade the Lakers’ talent level without removing much. Odom and Villanueva in the same lineup would be very intriguing, and Simmons’ shooting would help them as well. Imagine a Lakers “big” lineup (Phil Jackson’s favorite) of Bryant-Simmons-Odom-Villanueva-Bynum that would be able to push around and run past most defenses. The Bucks would only have to suffer through one season of Kwame Brown’s act, and while Cook isn’t the same player as Villanueva he would fit in better as a 15-minute backup to Yi than Villanueva does. I think the Lakers do this deal in a hurry, and the $20 million in savings that it gets the Bucks makes them look long and hard at it too.

But if that deal makes the Bucks too thin at small forward then there is Villanueva to the Lakers for Cook, Sasha Vujacic and a #1 pick. There aren’t any major cap ramifications in this trade, as Vujacic’s deal expires and Villanueva and Cook’s contracts are similar. But it gets Villanueva into a much better position to succeed and adds a future draft pick to the Bucks stable. As a favor to Charlie V, I think both teams would do this trade.

So there you have it — 29 teams to trade with, 14 trade scenarios and maybe two deals that would satisfy both teams. No wonder teams don’t make many trades and fans always complain about teams’ inactivity. Between the salary cap restrictions and the fact that an NBA roster is so small compared to other sports, it’s nearly impossible to come up with good trades. But I kind of like the Golden State and Lakers proposals. At the very least it’s fun to come up with these combos, but the moral of the story is … don’t sign lousy backup centers to $40 million deals.