The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Continuing my season review, today I am concentrating on the three mid-priced players that were complete enigmas for the Bucks this season.

Charlie Villanueva ($2.71M, 0.766 IPM): The deck was clearly stacked against Charlie V from the get-go this season. Coach Krystkowiak was telling the media that energy in practice and defensive intensity would determine playing time, but everybody knew that Yi had already been promised the starting power forward position. So even though there was nothing that Charlie V could do to get more playing time (especially since it would take Krystkowiak 60 games to try playing V and Yi together), Krystkowiak’s early position made it look like Villanueva was simply too lazy to earn court time.

On the court, Villanueva make an admirable recovery from last seasons’ shoulder injury to at least regain the form of his first two seasons, but he hasn’t really improved upon his rookie season at all. His game has stayed the same – he shoots too much from outside, rebounds pretty well (nine double-doubles in 31 starts), passes well for a big man, turns it over too much, doesn’t quite get as many blocks and steals as you would like, and is easily overpowered on defense.

Villanueva is wildly inconsistent on the court, simply not showing up every night. Just recently, he followed up a 2 point, 4 board, 1-6 shooting night against Boston with 38 points and 12 boards the next night against Toronto. It’s incredible how often he has a great game followed by a complete head-scratcher.

Often people look at that sort of inconsistency and thing; “Just wait until he figures it all out!� I look at it differently – Charlie Villanueva is the 6’11� version of Jamal Crawford: Half the time he’s awesome, half the time he’s awful and it all averages out to a completely average player. Guys like that don’t change – you don’t just suddenly become “consistent�.

Fortunately Villanueva has the tantalizing talent, relatively low paycheck and track record as former ROY-runner up to make him a reasonable bargaining chip in an offseason trade. It’s very difficult to win with a player like him, as he is such a unique athlete that he creates matchup problems wherever he plays – for both the opponents and his own team – and you never know if All-Star Charlie or Putrid Charlie will show up on any given night.

Villanueva was misused this season by Krystkowiak. He’s much better than a 15-minute bench guy as he was treated early in the season, but he’s not a dependable 35-minute workhorse either. Winning with a guy like Villanueva on your team requires the coach to have a lot of imagination about how to use him, willingness to yank him when he’s doing poorly, and probably a double-standard regarding his practice habits because you need his head in the game. Krystkowiak failed on all counts regarding Charlie V.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 10%

Yi Jianlian ($2.77M, 0.618 IPM): Hope for the best, fear the worst. After a season where Yi’s play got worse and worse and excuses started to mount around him, I worry.

The most enduring image of Yi’s rookie season, besides his picture-perfect jump shot, will have to be that of him flailing his arms after getting his shot blocked. According to 82games.com, he finished the season having 36% of his “in close� shots blocked, and only made 31% of those tries. As the season went on, this inability to convert clearly started to wear on Yi, as he began barking at the officials after every time he got stripped. He simply had a horrible time adjusting to the physicality and athleticism of NBA big men. Despite being a pretty legitimate 250 pounds and having a decent vertical, he is just awful at taking contact.

There’s really no reason to believe that he’s 20 years old any more as baseball’s experience has pretty much proven that once a player is rumored to be older than his listed age then he most likely is. So since we have to assume that he’s more like 24 years old then we have to assume that he’s pretty much not going to change all that much as a player – he’s not going to develop a crossover dribble or gain 30 pounds of muscle. As for the rumors that he has three point range and can do a 360 dunk – well, he shot about 20% from the international 3-point line his last year in China, and I remember hearing rumors when Eddy Curry was in High School that he could do a backflip. I’d pay $100 to see Curry try that now. Just because something is rumored only means it’s a rumor.

So just how good is Yi? Well, in his best month this season he averaged 12 ppg and 6.6 rpg. I think he can beat that for a full season, but I don’t think he will ever play physically enough to be a 20 ppg scorer. However, this could change if the next coach simply does a better job of getting him the ball. It seems that the Bucks should have been running a pick-and-pop play 25 times a game for Yi, but that never seemed to happen. In fact, it seemed to me that Yi rarely even got the ball in the post when he would call for it – almost as though his teammates were freezing him out. Strange.

Young superstars may take some time to blossom, but you almost always get a glimpse at their talent by then end of their rookie season. You can’t say that about Yi – it seems more like he’s got an air of “okay player when things go right� about him instead of “All-Star�.

There is also the issue of the amount of rest he will get in the summer – while much was made over him being tired after playing all of last summer, he will play in the Olympics this summer, the Asian games the year after than and the World Championship after that. Adding to the problem is that Yi’s Chinese handlers see his NBA experience as training for his summer international competition, so it’s not like they will take it easy on him in the summer.

I guess I’ve done a pretty good job of making it sound like Yi was a really bad pick, but that’s not true. For how incredibly deep the 2007 draft was supposed to be, it now appears that there weren’t that many great players available after the top 3. It looks like the only players taken after Yi who the Bucks may one day regret passing on could be Thaddeus Young and Brandan Wright, and even at his advanced age Yi still has about as much upside as them.

Of course, there are also the financial implications of Yi’s presence to consider. Yi caused the Bucks to play several games that were viewed by as many as 1 billion people worldwide this season, and was also the reason for the sale of several prominent ads at the Bradley Center. The money that cam from Yi this season is probably the difference between the Bucks making a losing money this year – and probably the reason that Herb Kohl was willing to spend enough to hire John Hammond away from Detroit and to apparently have a blank check available for the next coach.

However, it’s an open question as to how long the Yi cash flow will continue. He has to be good for anyone back home to care about him much longer. While Hideki Matsui and Ichiro are still superstars in Japan and have dozens of Japanese media still following them, it is long forgotten that Kaz Matsui arrived in New York with similar hype. While there is no way to conceive of potentially trading Yi because of the money he brings in, if he doesn’t start bringing it on the court next season then that cash flow will dry up quickly. One interesting note is that earlier in the season several of my posts about Yi were translated into Chinese and posted on a major message board there. That all stopped around mid-January, so after his struggles maybe the interest in him in China is already starting to wane.

In the end, it was a very disappointing season for Yi as he hit the wall in January and his play got worse and worse from there. After how his season ended with such a whimper it’s hard to even remember that he was a solid enough contributor early in the season. It’s a shame for Larry Krystkowiak that he was essentially forced to give Yi the starting job (compromising his whole “earn playing time through practice� message in the process) only to find Yi unable to carry the load.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 15%

Jake “Invisible Man� Voskuhl ($3M, 0.587 IPM): What a strange season for Voskuhl. He took over as the backup center early on (after Dan Gadzuric got benched and Michael Ruffin got hurt) and played pretty well, posting a 0.69 IPM as of January 6. Suddenly he stopped playing, and when he did play he was awful.

He never went on the injured list but must have been hurt, as he started getting DNP’s even in blowouts. It’s too bad, since once Yi started struggling, Voskuhl was their best offensive big man on the bench. He always dressed for the games, but rarely saw action beyond running onto the court at timeouts telling his teammates to keep their heads up after allowing yet another 12-0 run.

His $3 million expiring contract means that we wont be seeing him in a Bucks uniform again, which is too bad because it means he wont be around for anyone to ask him where he went for the second half of the season.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Up next: the Aussie and the Flintstone

I’ve been looking at recent IPM data (the latest updates of which have been posted), and the analysis shows some ways that the rotations can be changed to help get the Bucks out of this ridiculous slide. There are some things that Coach K can still try.

Here are my thoughts about the Bucks’ players with their IPM’s since December 8th (after the Seattle loss). Remember that an IPM above 1.0 indicates superstar level, above .9 would be about all-star level, .75 indicates a solid starter, .65 is a questionable starter/good reserve and below about .5 is where the player is no longer helping you by being on the floor.

Mo Williams, 0.9536: There isn’t anything bad that can be said about Mo’s play, as he has distributed the ball well along with shooting at a pretty high percentage. The true pessimist might wonder why Mo’s best numbers seem to coincide with him being on a bad team, but from watching him play it doesn’t seem like he’s firing for his own stats at the expense of the team – in the recent spate of blowouts he’s only started gunning away after the games were long lost (you know, mid-first quarter). Mo has been the best player on the team, and according to Charles Gardner, with Redd sidelined, Krystkowiak might be about to move him to shooting guard to give Ivey more time over Bell. I don’t know, this might cause as many defensive problems as it solves, but I guess it’s worth a shot. I’m not going to criticize Krystkowiak for trying something different.

Michael Redd, 0.8020: Redd has been playing at a very poor level (for him) ever since Mason got hurt. His shot selection became awful and the all-around play that highlighted the first 15 games of the season disappeared. I’m convinced that the move to small forward has caused this. He has been forced to play more physical players on defense, tiring him out for his offensive responsibilities. The result has been some awful shots (bizarre, flat-footed attempts that would get a high-schooler benched) and a marked decline in his free throw percentage – both signs that he must be too tired to play correctly. Of course, he can’t guard small forwards, anyway, so the position change has ruined all facets of his game. The whole reason the Bucks got Redd late in the second round was because GM’s felt he wasn’t athletic enough to play small forward. He’s proved them all right. Please, Coach K, when he comes back from the thigh bruise, find someone else to play the 3!

Dan Gadzuric, 0.7474: Danny G has only played 5 games in the last 13 and only gotten 8 minutes per, but the numbers suggest that maybe it’s time to start playing him a little more. The trick isn’t when to play him but where – I think he should play alongside Bogut. 10 minutes a game of Danny G at power forward could help everyone. For one thing, it would get the Bucks’ two best rebounders in the game together. It would give Bogut a reprieve from being hammered all night long by the oppositions’ most physical player (since the Bucks’ other power forwards all hang out on the perimeter). Gadzuric wouldn’t have the responsibility of touching the ball on offense (both reducing his turnovers and opening up more shots for everyone else) and he could just crash the boards and – since 10 minutes is the goal for him – hack away at will whenever he gets beat.

Yi Jianlian, 0.7352: The brightest spot from the last month has definitely been the play of Yi. He is adjusting to the physicality of the NBA, as his percentage of his inside-shots that get blocked has slowly started to come down (to a still-way-too-high 32% for the season, vs. 41% a month ago). The question is can he play the 3 – I don’t really think that’s going to work. He still gets the ball slapped out of his hands way too often (23 “ball handling� turnovers this season) and should he be guarded by smaller, more athletic players that will happen even more often. Also, moving him to the 3 takes away his shot-blocking ability. Maybe he can play there in bursts, but long-term, I don’t think his future is anywhere but power forward. Better improve on that rebounding, bud.

Charlie Villanueva, 0.7179: Time for today’s “Brett wants Charlie V to play the 3� moment. There are two big differences between moving Yi to the 3 vs. V. Villanueva is a much more accomplished ball handler and has the ability to dribble past smaller defenders and get into the lane. Villanueva is also not nearly the shot blocker that Yi is (8 this season? How is that possible? ) and so doesn’t have the value that Yi does being stationed inside. Villanueva at the 3 weakens the teams defense, no question, but brings plenty to the team by allowing Redd to stay in the backcourt and Simmons on the bench.

Andrew Bogut, 0.6944: I was very surprised to see Bogut’s IPM slide so much as I feel he’s actually played fairly well. I’m sure that the problem is he just has too much responsibility to handle every single bit of inside work for his team. It’s got to be exhausting after a while to guard the oppositions best big man, battle the oppositions two biggest players for boards, initiate the offense from the high post, shoot more now that Redd is hurt, and – oh yeah – how about making 55% from the floor while you are at it? No wonder he always looks so pissed on the court. Of course, some blame for his sagging numbers falls squarely on his own shoulders – whatever happed to his free throw form? He was a 70% free throw shooter in college and at one point had a 15-18 foot jump shot, but that is completely gone now. His form has slid to depths of a Shaq-style shotput toss from the free throw line, with the same on-the-way-up release he uses on a jump hook. It’s really ugly. Time to hire a shooting coach.

Desmond Mason, 0.6701: Mason played pretty well in the final 7 games before getting hurt, and with Simmons playing so poorly the Bucks miss him more than they ever thought they would.

Jake Voskuhl, 0.6485: One nice thing about the Gadzuric benching is that it’s pretty clear that Voskuhl can pretty much handle the 11 minute a night job as Bogut’s backup, freeing up Danny G for my master plan of moving him to power forward.

Royal Ivey, 0.5275: I’m not sure that starting him over Bell is much of an improvement, but what else can you do with this screwed up roster that only has four guards? Ivey started for most of the season in Atlanta in 05-06 but only played 13 mpg, compared to 15 now. Oh, by the way, Atlanta went 26-56 in 05-06.

Charlie Bell, 0.5068: You know, take away the putrid shooting (enough said about that) and Bell isn’t really playing all that bad. He gets some steals, has a solid A/TO ratio and rebounds pretty well for his size. However, no matter how well he plays, if he’s starting and playing 20+ minutes for you then you aren’t winning. His defensive effort is great, but that only takes you so far when you are routinely giving up 3-5 inches and 20-40 pounds. He just isn’t big enough to play more than a couple of minutes away from the point guard spot.

Bobby Simmons, 0.3743: He’s putting up Brian Scalabrine-type numbers but playing 20 minutes a game. It’s really getting ugly with Simmons. His shooting and turnover rates have been so poor that he’s hurting the team at both ends of the floor — the Bucks have basically been playing 4-on-6 with him on the court. It’s no coincidence that his only good game in the last month (vs. Miami) was the Bucks’ most recent win – it’s been too much for his teammates to have to overcome his play. I’ve said it so many times but I’ll say it again – something is wrong with him, and he shouldn’t be out there for more than 5-8 minutes a game until he gets it sorted out.

I remember seeing Dallas come into the BC about 4 years ago (when Don Nelson was still their coach). Nowitzki wasn’t at full strength, playing with some nagging injury (ankle, knee, back … something like that). But he was still their best player. Nelson had to get the ball in his hands while still minimizing his effort and keeping him away from contact. So ….

He ran the same damn play about 100 consecutive times. A pick & pop between Jason Terry and Nowitzki. On every single posession. For the entire game. If the Bucks defended it poorly it freed Nowitzki for an open jumper, and when the Bucks defended it well it got Terry into the lane where he could create for everyone else. It was ugly, boring, and quite effective.

Without Redd, the Bucks’ shorthanded offense should do the exact same thing with Williams and Yi. Simplify the offense, get the ball in the hands of their most talented players, and keeps the ball out of the hands of Simmons and Bell.

So there you have it — the rotations and the gameplan that I’d like to see.

I guess any NBA team would completely fall apart if they lose one key player (except San Antonio, apparently), and you would expect that to happen to the Bucks if they lost Redd or Bogut or Williams. But who would have guessed that Desmond Mason was the key to the whole house of cards?

I don’t blame Coach Krystkowiak for getting himself kicked out of the game against Chicago. The season is going down the tubes and it’s time for him to pull the “coach freak out” motivational ploy. He may have felt that the officiating had been bad in the 4th quarter, but I’m not so sure — in addition to the Ivey/Hinrich loose ball call (which the officials probably did blow), he was unhappy about a screen that Aaron Gray set on Ivey (which was hard but legal) and a call that went against Charlie Villanueva even though it appeared he was tripped by Nocioni (replays showed that Charlie V grabbed Nocioni’s jersey first). If Krystkowiak was going to flip out at the officials it should have come a couple of weeks ago in the 2OT loss to Cleveland, when the officials missed LeBron James stepping out of bounds twice at the end of the first overtime. But as a motivational ploy, it was necessary against Chicago.

However, this game was lost because of the rotations, not the officials. While I applaud Krystkowiak for getting away from the “two platoon” rotation strategy, he has not handled the loss of Mason properly.

I grant that he is pretty much being screwed over by Bobby Simmons, who has been absolutely useless. Obviously he can’t play more than 15 minutes, and even that leads you to hold your breath. Something is wrong with him, and it may have to do with the 3 game “personal leave” he took earlier in the month. He hasn’t been the same since, and one hopes it’s not because of a major or tragic personal issue.

I’ve written plenty that I can’t stand using Michael Redd at small forward, but in this situation it’s unavoidable at least a little. But his offense has fallen apart in the last 3 games, coinciding with the injury to Mason. Redd can’t handle the physicality of playing small forward, and doesn’t put enough defensive effort into it. So while 10 minutes a game at the “3″ is probably necessary right now, why not try to limit his time there?

Speaking of Redd, considering that Krystkowiak preaches that defensive effort determines playing time, at what point does spotlight start to shine on Redd? His defense may have cost the Bucks the game on Friday. After the controversial call that got Krystkowiak sent to the showers, the Bucks were only down two and forced a missed shot. But Luol Deng — Redd’s man — came in untouched and slammed home the rebound. How could Redd botch that play so badly? When the shot went up, Redd was standing 3 feet from the basket while Deng was 10 feet away on the baseline. Redd did not put any effort into boxing out, never turned toward Deng, and never even raised his hands above his waist to go after the rebound. He stood there like a spectator, watching his man flush the rebound home. All he had to do was look over his shoulder and box out 10 feet from the hoop and the result of that game might have been different.

Moving on about the rotations, how could Krystkowiak put a lineup on the floor of Williams/Ivey/Bell/Villanueva/Bogut and stick with it for 6 minutes in the 4th quarter? I know he clings to the idea that Bell can play defense, but how can you possibly compete with two total offensive non-factors on the floor? Are you trying to shut the Bulls out? Because that’s how good the D would have to be.

Bell cannot guard small forwards any better than Redd can. Bell gives up 6 inches and 25 pounds to Deng. What is he supposed to do? Meanwhile, Bell continues to seemingly go out of his way to shoot the Bucks out of games. He’s shot 4-28 (14%) in the last 6 games and yet has somehow played 132 minutes. And it’s not like he’s on a 6 game cold streak — he’s down to 28% shooting on the year. At least he hasn’t guarded anyone effectively either. What does this guy have to do to get benched? Check into a game without his shoes on? He should be spelling Williams for 8-10 minutes a night and that is it.

So what should the rotations be? Given that Simmons is only good for 15 a night and we want Redd at small forward for no more than 10, that leaves 23 minutes to be filled. You simply have to start putting Charlie Villanueva there and playing him alongside Yi.

Villanueva isn’t going to do any more damage defensively than Bell or Redd already have, and at least he’s got the length and strength to make opposing small forwards work to get the ball. That would have the added bonus of giving more court time to Yi, and also make room for a few minutes per game from Michael Ruffin (who is back and in uniform). Additionally, it would keep bigger, physical forwards off of Redd and allow him to get his offensive game back, which has really suffered from the pounding at the “3″. When was the last time he went 6-11 from the free throw line? It’s got to be partially attributed to him getting hit more often.

The Bucks can’t win without their best players on the floor and their five best players are Redd, Bogut, Williams, Yi and Villanueva. It’s that simple.

My suggested rotations:

Point guard: Williams (38 mpg), Bell (10)
Shooting guard: Redd (30), Ivey (18)
Small Forward: Simmons (15), Redd (10), Villanueva (23)
Power Forward: Yi (33), Villanueva (12), Ruffin/Gadzuric (3)
Center: Bogut (33), Voskuhl (12), Ruffin/Gadzuric (3)

I don’t see any other way. They can’t win with Bell playing a significant part of the backcourt or Redd being a big part of the frontcourt.

You know, I was watching the Sacramento game, all set to write something positive about Krystkowiak’s coaching, because I really liked the cross-match of having Yi guard Brad Miller and Bogut take the smaller, more active Mikki Moore. Good move, since Moore operates closer to the basket and Yi’s wingspan might help bother Miler’s passing.

But then the fourth quarter started, and apparently Krystkowiak hasn’t learned anything from this losing streak. He’s still starting quarters with pathetic all-bench lineups and just sitting there, watching them get smoked.

Last night the culprit lineup was Ivey/Bell/Villanueva/Voshkul, rounded out — for varietys sake, I guess — with mister corkscrew jump hook himself, Desmond Mason! Bingo, instant 12-0 Sacramento run in only two minutes and the Bucks biggest lead of the night is gone.

Okay, so a similar lineup (Ivey/Bell/Mason/Villanueva/Bogut) had run off a 7-0 run to finish the third, but there is a big difference here. For one, this lineup includes Bogut, the Bucks’ best rebounder. Also, Charlie Bell was a fluke 3-3 from the floor during the last 3 minutes of the third quarter.

The idiocy of the fourth quarter lineup simply astounds me. Mason’s shot selection is consistently horrible, and whenever he creates you can only thing you can depend on is that the ball will come off the rim just as hard as he threw it there. Ivey is in the league solely for his defense, and whenever Voshkul does something well he gets this incredulous “I can’t believe that worked” look on his face. Despite the hot 3rd quarter, Bell is shooting under 30% this year. Is it really fair to expect Charlie V to carry the team as the only offensive option out there?

The only justification for leaving Mason in is that you wanted him to guard Ron Artest, but Artest sat down at the beginning of the fourth quarter, so that’s no excuse.

I tried to look back and see where Krystkowiak got the idea that he doesn’t need starters any more, and while he tried a version of this lineup a couple of times against Portland and it worked well, he did it with either Williams or Redd in at all times. That makes a lot more sense. With Bell this awful and Ivey such a non-factor offensively, you have got to have a backcourt scorer in at all times. It’s that simple.

He didn’t do it against Seattle, but against Golden State a 5 point deficit at the end of the first quarter became 16 with Bell/Ivey/Simmons/Villanueva/Gadzuric on the floor, although to be fair Golden State went on a 12-2 run when the starters came back in that game. It really didn’t matter what Krystkowiak did against the Warriors.

He did not come close to an all-bench lineup against the Clippers and — hey look at that! — the Bucks actually won that one.

Instead of experimenting with lineups composed of your worst players (too bad Damir Markota isn’t on the team any more. He’d probably be starting every 4th quarter under Coach K) I think that the science project du jour should be figuring out how to play Yi and Charlie V together.

There are two ways to do this — either a big lineup of Bogut-Yi-V, or Yi in the middle and Villanueva at power forward.

While Villanueva has had major defensive problems at small forward before, the tantalizing matchup problems that this creates for the opposition are very interesting. Since Yi hangs out on the perimeter so much and Bogut either works in the high post or under the basket on the weak side, a big frontcourt should allow Charlie V plenty of space for good scoring opportunities. This would also be a very good rebounding frontcourt, as while Villanueva and Yi are only average to below average rebounders for power forwards, V is a great rebounder for a small forward. This lineup would hurt their defense if the opposition has the wrong personnel (namely, a high-scoring small forward) but this team can’t stop anybody anyway.

Yi in the middle would be an upgrade over Voshkul (and the demoted Gadzuric) while allowing Villanueva to operate from his more normal position. This frontcourt would be too weak a rebounding group to play well for extended stretches (and would probably have to have Bobby Simmons at the “3″ in order to rebound at all), but at least it would be quick and athletic enough to have the chance to start some transition opportunities for the offense.

The bottom line is that Krystkowiak’s bungling of the second/fourth quarter rotations can be directly attributed as The Main Reason We Lost in three games now — Sacramento, Atlanta, and New York — and they haven’t helped out at all in a couple of other losses. Something has to change immediately, or this season will be as lost as last year, but without the injury excuses.

Oh, one more note regarding Yi and touches in the post — on the Bucks’ final two posessions of the first half Yi had his man sealed on the left block, called for the ball, and the man with the ball on the perimeter (first Williams, then Mason) completely ignored him. What is this? Some sort of freeze-out?

It’s a common complaint about NBA GM’s that they don’t have the balls to pull off any big trades and that they would rather do nothing rather than take a risk. There may be something to that attitude, but the truth is that NBA trades are very difficult to consummate with all of the trade restrictions and salary cap considerations. The fact is that a big trade now will often completely hamstring you for the future, and if GM wants to trade a guy the chances are that they want to trade him because something is wrong with him.

But that didn’t stop me from trying to put together some trade scenarios for the Bucks. I came up with 14 possibilities, 3 or 4 of which might be considered by both teams. But, honestly, it’s tough to come up with realistic trades that wouldn’t be rejected immediately by one of the parties. But here we go:

First of all, there are so many restrictions on members of the Bucks roster that there aren’t too many trade pieces available. As newly-signed free agents the following players cannot be traded at least until Mid-December: Bell, Ivey, Mason, Ruffin, Storey, Voskuhl and Williams. The Bucks aren’t going to look to trade Bogut, Yi, or Redd. That leaves only Gadzuric, Noel, Sessions, Simmons and Villanueva as potential trade bait.

The other problem is that except for Villanueva the other players would have almost zero trade value around the league based on their talent. Any GM would probably immediately reject any deal for Bobby Simmons until he has proven he is healthy. Gadzuric’s contract is so long that he would be rejected unless the other team is really desperate for a big man or is sending back an even worse contract.

I ran all of the trade ideas through ESPN’s Trade Machine, and they all would work under the cap. Except for a couple of the trades, I didn’t assume draft picks would be included.

So, with all that in mind, here go the trade proposals:

Charlie Villanueva and Bobby Simmons to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko. The main reason for Utah to do this deal is money — they would save almost $30 million over the next 4 seasons and would have Simmons and (probably) Villanueva off the books by 2010, which is when extensions for Boozer and Deron Williams kick in. Kirilenko had a bad season last year and didn’t fit well in their system, plus he demanded a trade in the offseason. For the Bucks, this would be a sort of “all-in” big money move that would give them a very expensive, inflexible lineup fpr 4 years. Kirilenko would bring Milwaukee exactly what they need — defense — and his shooting shortcomings wouldn’t be a problem. Ultimately, though, Utah would decline this deal — Kirilenko is too important to their team defense to give up.

Dan Gadzuric to Charlotte for Adam Morrison and Jared Dudley. With Sean May out for the year and Primoz Brezec’s game declining to … well … something worse than Gadzuric, it would depend on how close Michael Jordan feels the Bobcats are to prime time. Would Gadzuric be a good player alongside Emeka Okafor? I doubt it, but you never know with MJ’s eye for talent. Morrison’s contract is only guaranteed through this season (so he would probably never play for the Bucks) and Dudley is a rookie making only $1.1 million this year, so the Bucks would save $20 million over the next 4 years. Dudley is an intriguing player, a combo forward who has already shown a solid nose for the ball and could be a good backup at both forward positions. However, I’m sure even Michael Jordan would turn down this trade, as Dudley is already better than Gadzuric and it’s a lot to ask for him to give up on Morrison so soon (although he probably should).

Simmons to Denver for Nene. This would be a dumb bad-contract swap for both teams. The Bucks would be getting the more expensive, more injury prone player who would be a career backup, while Denver would weaken their frontcourt. I only included this deal because it has been rumored in the past.

Villanueva to Golden State for Brandan Wright. This is an intriguing deal. Wright is getting no court time in Golden State, with Don Nelson preferring to play veterans. Villanueva would fit in perfectly in Nelson’s run-and-gun scheme. While Wright would take at least a season to blossom, at the very least he would provide an inexpensive backup to Bogut and Yi for 5 years. I think this would be a fair trade, and would be a huge boost to Villanueva’s career.

Gadzuric and David Noel to Houston for Steve Novak, Rafer Alston, and Luther Head. A good team with an eye on the championship can never have too many big, active bodies and Houston would probably be interested in getting rid of Alston, who was arrested twice in the offseason. Alston insists that neither incident was his fault, but his reputation around the league has dropped to somewhere between “bad guy” and “guy who bad stuff always seems to find” and Houston has Steve Francis available to take Alston’s minutes. Alston has 3 years left on his deal, so the Bucks would save 1 year and about $12 million in this trade. Head is a solid combo guard who can play some point, play good defense, and hit open shots. He would allow the Bucks to pursue trade opportunities for Charlie Bell, as Head does the same things for 1/3 the salary. Novak would sell some tickets. My guess is that the Rockets would jump at this trade if Head was not included and might take it if he was, but the Bucks would probably be very leery at the trail of problems that have followed Alston wherever he has been.

Gadzuric to Houston for Kirk Snyder, Luther Head, Steve Novak, and Carl Landry. Another version of the same trade that the Bucks would most likely jump at. Snyder is in the last year of his deal and is not getting any playing time, while Landry would throw another Milwaukee native into the mix. Would Houston gut the end of their bench and take on an extra $20+ million in long term salary to add a big man who can’t stay on the floor? I’d like to say so, but I doubt it.

Villanueva to Minnesota for Mark Madsen and Craig Smith. Smith was a steal in last season’s draft who is already the T-Wolves’ second best player while Madsen is one of the worst players in the NBA and has 3 years left on his contract. Smith would fit well on the Bucks, though, as he would bring tenacious rebounding and “bruiser” ability to a team that sorely needs it. Smith has a similar skill set as Al Jefferson, so the T-Wolves might be willing to include him if the reward is talent like Villanueva and getting rid of dead weight like Madsen. More likely, though, they would turn down the deal as they probably think they are set at forward for years with Jefferson and Brewer.

Gadzuric and Villanueva to New Jersey for Antoine Wright and Jason Collins. Once again, this is more of a salary dump than a talent upgrade for the Bucks. Wright is a bust who has shown some signs of life early in this season while Collins is a defensive-minded center who is owed $12 million over the next two seasons. This would save the Bucks $13 million in the long run, but the addition of Villanueva would be a big upgrade for New Jersey. This is a trade that I could see New Jersey doing (except that they need Wright with Vince Carter out right now) but the Bucks declining.

Gadzuric to New Orleans for Bobby Jackson. A dumb deal for both teams, except that Jackson only has two years left on his contract instead of 4. Kind of a pointless trade for both teams.

Gadzuric to Orlando for Pat Garrity and JJ Redick. A blatant salary dump by the Bucks, but one which Orlado might consider in their leave-no-stone-unturned efforts to find a power forward. Garrity is awful and Redick has yet to show himself to be remotely close to being an NBA athlete, but this could save the Bucks as much as $20 million. However, with 3 more years of Tony Battie and Howard’s extension starting next year, Orlando would probably rather sign a scrap-heap free agent instead of taking on a long contract.

Simmons and Gadzuric to Washington for Caron Butler and Darius Songalia. I only put this deal in the list because … well … it’s hard to come up with deals. Is Washington serious about blowing up their roster before Arenas opts out? Are the Wizards that anxious to add a big men with Etan Thomas’ season over and career in some doubt? Are they trading an All-Star for two bad contracts? No. Michael Jordan isn’t running the show there anymore.

Simmons to Phoenix for Boris Diaw and Marcus Banks. The Bucks would be adding a lot of salary in this deal and wouldn’t even begin to consider it unless Phoenix threw in lots of cash and multiple draft picks. I think we can write off Diaw’s 2005-06 season that got him his $45 million contract as a huge fluke and Banks has been horrendous for his whole career. The ever-cost sensitive Suns would love this offer, but it would be a bad idea for the Bucks that would send them careening off into luxury tax payment.

Simmons and Villanueva to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Brian Cook and a #1 pick. Would this satisfy Kobe? Probably not, but it would upgrade the Lakers’ talent level without removing much. Odom and Villanueva in the same lineup would be very intriguing, and Simmons’ shooting would help them as well. Imagine a Lakers “big” lineup (Phil Jackson’s favorite) of Bryant-Simmons-Odom-Villanueva-Bynum that would be able to push around and run past most defenses. The Bucks would only have to suffer through one season of Kwame Brown’s act, and while Cook isn’t the same player as Villanueva he would fit in better as a 15-minute backup to Yi than Villanueva does. I think the Lakers do this deal in a hurry, and the $20 million in savings that it gets the Bucks makes them look long and hard at it too.

But if that deal makes the Bucks too thin at small forward then there is Villanueva to the Lakers for Cook, Sasha Vujacic and a #1 pick. There aren’t any major cap ramifications in this trade, as Vujacic’s deal expires and Villanueva and Cook’s contracts are similar. But it gets Villanueva into a much better position to succeed and adds a future draft pick to the Bucks stable. As a favor to Charlie V, I think both teams would do this trade.

So there you have it — 29 teams to trade with, 14 trade scenarios and maybe two deals that would satisfy both teams. No wonder teams don’t make many trades and fans always complain about teams’ inactivity. Between the salary cap restrictions and the fact that an NBA roster is so small compared to other sports, it’s nearly impossible to come up with good trades. But I kind of like the Golden State and Lakers proposals. At the very least it’s fun to come up with these combos, but the moral of the story is … don’t sign lousy backup centers to $40 million deals.

The Bucks are going to finish in fourth place in the division this year. However, they could be anywhere between the 5th best and 12th best teams in the conference, so there is plenty to think about for this season. Here’s a player-by-player look at what we can expect to see on the court this season (listed in order of salary):

Michael Redd: He is in his prime and has raised his game a little bit every season. Hopefully this is the year that his teammates bring enough offense to allow him to reduce his load a little. Despite his reputation, Redd is more than just a standstill jump shooter — he got to the line very effectively last season, and it would be nice to see him add a wrinkle to his game by dishing the ball off on his drives more often. Redd will never be much of a defensive player, but at least his offense has always been good enough to make his court contribution net-positive unless he has to stick the best opposition (Iverson and Kobe are two guys who have always absolutely killed him). The bottom line is that Michael Redd is a solid star — not someone who can carry you to the championship, but a star nonetheless.

Bobby Simmons: Hopefully the real Simmons finally shows up this season. When healthy, he is a tough, physical defender (think a sane Ron Artest with 80% of the ability) and an excellent three-point shooter. Simmons played hurt for most of his first season with the Bucks and never really got on track, but he’s an important part of the puzzle this year. Simmons is the only starter who can be considered a plus-defender and he is also a good rebounder for his position, so getting him back into the lineup addresses the Bucks’ two major weaknesses.

Mo Williams: I’ve never really bought into the whole “pure point guard” vs. “shoot-first point guard” thing for two reasons: first, the most important thing is for the team to score more points than the opposition and, second, there isnt really any good way to objectively measure how good a passer a player is. Assists, for example, has as much to do with the point guards’ pass as it does with the finishing ability of the recipient and the decision of the official scorer. So does Mo shoot too much? Last season he took the 5th most shots per 40 minutes of all point guards (behind Arenas, Parker, Cassell and Davis) with 16.87, but the difference between him and the #21 point guard (Stephon Marbury) was only 2.81 shots per 40! That’s less than 1 per quarter! Also, Mo had several games where he was the only starter in uniform, so his scoring was necessary. No, his shooting was fine. Mo’s new contract is reasonable given his production and age, and he still has room to improve. Point guards often take years and years to reach their peaks, so while Williams will most likely plateau as a slightly below-all-star level player, there is always the outside chance that he could have a Chanuncey Billups-like career.

Desmond Mason: Don’t expect much production from Mason, as his game has really slipped in the last couple of years and he’s no longer good enough to be a full time starter. However, this signing provides good value for several reasons. He fills an important role as the backup small forward, and may be needed for as much as 25 minutes a night depending on Simmons’ health. He wont complain about not starting and should provide bursts of energy off the bench. Also, his contract is only two years, so he could be a valuable trade asset next season. Finally, he is a quality person who wanted to sign in Milwaukee. As long as the team doesn’t ask him to do too much on the court, this was a good signing. Should they wind up needing for him to start … that’s trouble.

Dan Gadzuric: After being misused by Terry Stotts and suffering through a simply awful season, it was hard to believe that Danny G was even an NBA player at all at times. It seemed like everything he touched bounced off his hands last year (making me wonder if he was playing with some kind of lingering finger injury) contributing to a lousy shooting percentage, high turnover rate, and dropoff in his rebounding. He also fouled too much, but that’s typical for him. I’m glad to see that Coach Krystkowiak is thinking about playing him at power forward, where his rebounding will be a big plus and maybe matching up with players closer to his size will help him rush less and concentrate more on holding onto the ball. He can’t possibly be as bad as he was last season, but he’s never going to play up to his contract, which has 4 years and $25 million remaining.

Andrew Bogut: While it’s pretty clear by now that he will never reach the level of some other young centers like Amare Stoudemire or Dwight Howard, hopefully Bogut will make the leap this year to a sort of “best of the rest” category. Bogut is younger than many people may realize — still 1 year younger than Patrick Ewing was in his rookie season — so there is still time for Bogut to mature physically. He is bigger this season and looked very good in the preseason, and hopefully that will transfer into a more agressive, physical game — because that’s what this team needs. They are depending on him to be their best rebounder, and an extra one per quarter would make a huge difference. I would also like to see Bogut shoot more. He shot 55% from the floor, which for a good offensive player (except for Shaq) means he isn’t shooting enough because he passes up too many difficult shots. At some point, Bogut’s game will have to make a big jump to justify being the #1 pick in the draft, and hopefully that jump comes now. But if he only improves his rebounding, then that will be enough to make him one of the best non-all-star true centers in the game.

Jake Voskuhl: Should Danny G drop the ball again this season then Voskuhl will see some playing time, but hopefully that wont happen. He’s not very good defensively, an okay shooter, not a particularly special rebounder … well, he’s a #3 center. What do you expect.

Charlie Bell: This is the exact opposite of the Desmond Mason signing. His contract is for very reasonable dollars but way too long (some other time I’ll write about why matching his contract was really, really dumb). If anything, Bell deserved even more money up front (considering how well he played the last two years for the minimum) but a 5 year contract to any role player, especially one who is 28 years old, is not a wise move. In the other anti-parallels to the Mason signing; Bell is effective on the court, doesn’t want to be here and showed up to camp out of shape (logically, though, he didn’t work out in the summer lest he injure himself while he had no contract, so that’s not a problem, and he is a quality person who just doesn’t want to be on the Bucks any longer). If Bell plays like he did the last two seasons he will be a valuable backup to both Williams and Redd who pulls his weight on the court and also who’s ability to play multiple positions allows a great deal of roster flexibility. However, I wonder what happens if he struggles on the court and never stops playing this whiny “I hate the Bucks” game. We don’t need the backup guard to be a distraction. I’ve been knocking Bell for a long time now, and I really do want him to succeed, but I just can’t shake the feeling that his head isn’t all here.

Yi Jianlian: Superstar or bust? 19 or 23 years old? The questions don’t end with this guy, and I think that finding out what we have here will cause some major growing pains — and some losses. I’m afraid that Yi’s rookie year will look a lot like Adam Morrison’s: he gets force-fed minutes, he has a few scoring outbursts but is lacking in other facets of the game, and his defense will be so bad that he costs them games. Hopefully Yi shoots better than Morrison. Yi had one 12-rebound preseason game, but also one where he was repeatedly beaten for baskets and boards by Kenyon Martin (he of the microfracture surgery on both knees). Hopefully Yi has enough of a mean streak that he will brush off the bad games, toughen up, take advantage of his size and deliver some punishment. I hope he’s not too soft for that.

Charlie Villanueva: It’s tough to figure out what to do with guys with Charlie V’s skill set. Such a tantalizing combination of shooting and distributing ability but too weak to play power forward and too big/slow to play small forward. Toronto dumped him because they couldn’t use him with Chris Bosh and now they have the same problem with Andrea Bargnani, and Lamar Odom has bounced back and forth between the forward positions with multiple teams. Villanueva is a double-double machine when he’s healthy and motivated, and one wonders if the force-feeding of minutes to Yi will hurt Charlie V’s attitude and intensity. Because of all the question marks — some of which are beyond Villanueva’s control — it’s tough to say that the Bucks can depend on him. hopefully he can play 10 mpg at small forward, get 35 mpg overall, and put to rest the questions about who won the TJ Ford trade.

Michael Ruffin: I’m glad to see the Bucks kept him instead of Samaki Walker. Ruffin is one of the most comically bad offensive players in NBA history, but at least he knows it and stays out of the way. He can rebound and play tough D, and given the amount of offensive talent on the team he fills some needs. Gadzuric will always have those occassional nights where he gets 5 fouls in 4 minutes, and Ruffin can step in as the third power forward or (undersized) center for a few minutes at a time. He’s a good signing as an 11th man.

Royal Ivey, Awvee Storey, David Noel, Ramon Sessions: If any of these guys are playing much than things have gone awry. Ivey will be at the end of the bench for defense at the guard spots, and Storey was signed as a #3 small forward in case Simmons can’t go and Mason is pressed into the starting lineup. David Noel would be best served spending the season in the NBDL trying to fill out his game. The same could probably be said for Sessions, as he would be better off playing 25 minutes a game somewhere else rather than 2 mpg here.

The best-case scenario for this team is that Bogut turns into a big-time rebounder, Yi brings high-percentage scoring and Charlie V becomes a multi-position threat. In terms of overall talent, this team could be the second deepest in the East (behind Chicago), which is exciting because the top 8 players are under 30 years old and under contract for at least 3 years. However, if the rebounding doesn’t sort itself out and Yi struggles, then the team’s lack of defensive presence could cause it all to fall apart. This team can win anywhere from 35 to 45 games. They could even win a playoff series (in a perfect world, I could see them beating Detroit or Cleveland). But they could also really collapse. So, here’s my fearless prediction: 42 wins, 8th seed in the playoffs.