The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

I am pleased to announce that I have made an upgrade to my IPM rankings — thanks to the geniuses at www.82games.com, they kept track of charges this season and so I was able to add them into the ranking. I’ve been waiting for this. The rankings don’t change much (Andrew Bogut gets a little boost), but I still feel it helps with accuracy a bit. The rankings are available here.

But the real improvement is that I have added a defensive component to IPM, making this ranking truly unique — not only does it include charges, but also defense. I’m mighty proud of it.

The idea for a defensive ranking came from this article by Jon Nichols at 82games.com. His method — called Defensive Composite Score — ranked players by three categories, summed the rankings, and then ranked them by percentage to come up with a 0-100 ranking. His categories were athleticism ratio (if you are familiar with my draft preview, I also used it there. It is blocks+steals/fouls), Dean Oliver’s Defensive Rating (a single number developed and described in the book Basketball on Paper) and on court/off court differential.

I took Nichols’ DCS, tweaked it and took it a step further. First, I added charges to the athleticism ratio (blocks+steals+offensive fouls drawn/fouls committed). After getting the individual ratings, I took my team defensive IPM score in order to add a “team adjustment” to each individual. Then I adjusted for how much each player was responsible for their teams’ defensive IPM, by backing out each player to determine how much better or worse each team would be had he not been on the team. Finally (and I wish I didn’t have to do this, but the data demanded it) I inputted a position adjustment to reflect the fact that big men have much more difficult demands on their defense.

I absolutely hate position adjustments, and feel that if you have to use them then there is a flaw in your methodology because you can then just change a players’ ranking by changing their position — even though they don’t always play the same position. It’s a major flaw that also crops up in the “Wages of Wins” school of thought, but that’s a whole other story.

Anyway, I then had an adjusted score that I could convert to IPM, and by combining IPM with the Defensive IPM I obtained a final, all-around ranking. Because the rules of basketball are slanted toward offense I weighted the combined rankings as 75% IPM and 25% defensive IPM. Basically, I figured that since a 25 ppg scorer would likely score 35 points against the worst defender but about 20 against the best defender, you can’t truly assume the two systems are equal. A great defensive player will still allow enough scoring that he has to at least be able to pick up a little slack at the offensive end.

The ranking are available here.

What does the defensive ranking component tell us?

The most interesting thing is that it says that in the case of top players, they usually bring the goods at both ends of the floor. It makes some sense — logically great players like LeBron, KG and Kobe are so superior athletically that they can dominate at both ends. So the players who don’t have their overall rankings changed very much when defensive IPM is included tend to be the best players (or, like Matt Carroll, they just suck at both offense and defense).

What was also interesting was looking at the players who had their rankings changed the most by adding defensive IPM. It clearly shows that there are some “winning”, “intangible” skills that some players bring and that some lack.

It doesn’t come as much surprise that the players who had their rankings improved the most were the known offensively-challenged defensive specialists: Shane Battier, Ben Wallace, and Anderson Varejao types. But what was interesting was that of the 40 players who had their rankings improved by the most (among those who averaged 20 mpg), 30 of them made the playoffs this season. At the other end of the spectrum, among the 40 20mpg+ offensive specialists who were hurt the most by incorporating defensive rankings (Eddy Curry, Ben Gordon, Hakim Warrick …. Charlie Villanueva) 30 of them missed the playoffs. Coincidence? I think not.

What does this ranking system tell us about some of the Bucks?

Charlie Villanueva must go. While Charlie V’s offensive IPM was decent (0.7756, #116 overall) his team-worst 0.508 defensive IPM dropped his overall ranking 58 spots to #176. Quite simply, Villanueva is a pretty average offensive player who doesn’t defend well enough to make him a net-positive player.

Michael Redd should stay. Redd suffered through an awful offensive season by his standards and had a pretty lousy defensive IPM to boot, but when it was all said and done his overall ranking dropped by 19 spots. However, Redd is good enough offensively to score 25 a night and get to the line 10 times, while attempting to replace him would likely lead to a replacement who is moderately better defensively but much, much worse offensively. And Redd is likely to be better on offense next season.

Mo Williams should go. Mo’s 0.625 defensive IPM lowered his overall ranking by 25 spots, which pretty much negates all of the strides his offensive game has made. Added to that is the way Mo’s decision making seems to make the game harder on his teammates, and he winds up looking like a real drag on the team.

Andrew Bogut should sign that extension. When charges were added, Bogut’s IPM rose to 0.910, which is borderline-all-star level. At his age, there is still plenty of time for Bogut to mature into a solid contributor for a good team. Bogut’s defense was also the best on the team, which suggests that once Scott Skiles beats some defensive responsibility into his teammates, he should be able to become the centerpiece of a pretty good defense.

Yi was … good defensively? I don’t know about this one. Yi’s defensive IPM was pretty good, but I think that Yi gets a big assist from Bogut here. Bogut would always guard the oppositions’ best big, and Yi’s on/off court differential looks a little better than it is because he got hurt a little before the team really cratered. Yi has a lot of work to do next year — and he owes it to Bogut for making his numbers look good this season.

Thank God Royal Ivey is gone. Having a defensive specialist can be a good strategy. However, Ivey was so bad offensively that even great defense couldn’t make him a net-positive player. But Ivey, despite maybe looking good here and there, was lousy defensively as well — his 0.523 DefIPM was the second worst on the team. Charlie Bell’s DefIPM was awful as well, but he gets a pass because he was thrown to the wolves at small forward way too often. How can a 6′3″ player be expected to guard LeBron James straight up?

Ramon Sessions isn’t as good as the numbers say. While Sessions had the best offensive and defensive IPM on the team, don’t forget that his 17 games played amounted to 450 minutes of extended garbage time. Nobody was very serious about guarding him and there wasn’t much incentive for him to play much defense beyond gambling for steals. He’ll be a good backup, but he’s not nearly as good as the numbers think.

And there’s my two cents for John Hammond.

In an interview with the Journal-Sentinel, Charlie Villanueva says that he feels that he’s the odd man out with the Bucks and will probably be traded soon. No big news there, it seems pretty obvious that he would be on the trading block.

But what can the Bucks get for him? It’s actually kind of tough to come up with good Villanueva trades because of his salary. Basically, he can only be traded for players who make a similar amount of money to his $3.5 million, which means that most of the people he could be traded for are either overpaid benchwarmers or valuable young players who would never be traded by their current teams.

So I went through the league and came up with 12 potential trades. Most of them are highly unrealistic, a couple of them are just plain dumb, and most of them aren’t really what you would call “blockbusters”. But it just goes to show you how difficult it is to actually come up with a good trade that both teams might do.

Here they are, in reverse order of how realistic they are:

REALLY DUMB IDEAS:

Phoenix: Shaquille O’Neal and the #15 pick for Redd and Villanueva. I only include this because in Phoenix’s twisted world of luxury tax avoidance they would see this trade as saving them money. Phoenix loses the 2yrs/$20 mil on Shaq’s deal, saves $1 million next year and $1-$5 mil the following season if they let Villanueva walk. However they then pick up Redd’s $18 mil 2010/11 contract – it makes no sense but that’s the same financial logic they used in the Shaq-Marion trade. Shaq’s game has slipped to the point that the Bucks would laugh at a proposal like this, and I’m sure that he would come to Milwaukee and instantly get “hurtâ€? anyway, so it’s pointless to continue speculating. But it’s kind of fun to imagine the in-his-prime 1999 version of Shaq on this team.

Indiana: Danny Granger and Travis Diener for Villanueva and the #8 pick. Strange deal that doesn’t really work for either team. Granger is the Pacers’ best player (so no reason for them to trade him away) but he’s eligible for an extension soon (so the Bucks would be grabbing the right to give him $12 mil a season). And it costs the Bucks a top 10 pick. Just an all-around bad idea. I only included this trade because having 12 trade ideas sounds better than just 11.

Chicago: S&T Luol Deng + Kirk Hinrich for Redd, Villanueva and the #8 pick. No way on earth this trade happens – both because it is inside the division and John Paxson isn’t going to trade Deng and Hinrich to Scott Skiles – but it makes some sense if the Bulls take Derrick Rose.

Toronto: TJ Ford and the #17 pick for Mason and Villanueva. Talk about irony – Villanueva and Ford traded for each other again? This trade would clear room for Toronto to commit to Jose Calderon as their starter and would save them money once Mason’s contract expires. Obviously, if Toronto wanted Villanueva they wouldn’t have traded him away in the first place, though.

PRETTY DUMB IDEA:

Denver: Carmelo Anthony for Williams, Villanueva and the #8 pick. While rumor has it that Denver would entertain offers for Anthony, if they were to take an offer like this then you’d have to wonder what is so wrong with Anthony that Denver would accept it. Anthony has spent years replacing his reputation as a clean-cut kid who makes the players around him better with that of a sullen, me-first scorer who doesn’t play defense, is known as one of the league’s hardest partiers, and recently picked up a DUI at 4am. This trade also leaves Denver with the smallest backcourt in the league in Mo and Iverson.

NOT ALL THAT DUMB, BUT STILL WOULD NEVER HAPPEN:

Atlanta: S&T Josh Smith for Simmons, Villanueva and the #8 pick. It seems unlikely that the Hawks would let Smith get away, but you never really know with them. There have been stories that they don’t want to pay him big money because of his personality and they may want to get a top 10 pick (their pick this year goes to Phoenix) but it’s very unlikely that anyone would let a player that talented get away.

Philadelphia: The #16 pick for Villanueva. The Sixers are $15-$20 mil under the salary cap, and if they like what they currently have then they may be more interested in adding a player than in risking a bust in the draft. It’s unlikely, though. This trade would have to be consumated after the draft.

Cleveland: Wally Szczerbiak for Simmons and Villanueva. Interesting trade – not for the on-court ramifications, but the off-court ones. Szczerbiak has one year on his contract ($13 mil) and Simmons and Villanueva two ($15 mil in 09/10 if Villanueva signs the 1 year qualifying offer). Basically this trade would allow Cleveland to postpone a big salary coming off of their cap next offseason until the following year, when LeBron will be a free agent. The Bucks would save $10-$14 million in 09/10.

MAKES A LITTLE SENSE:

Dallas: Josh Howard for Mason, Villanueva and the #8 pick. Just how serious is Dallas about making wholesale changes? Howard’s contract is relatively low risk (2 years plus a team option) and I’m sure the Bucks would jump at this deal. The Mavs would have to be seriously disillusioned about Howard (after his stoner comments and poor playoffs) to consider a deal like this, but if there’s a player in the draft who they really want they may be willing to make the splashy move.

Memphis: Brian Cardinal, Hakim Warrick and the #5 pick for Mason, Villanueva and the #8. This trade would give Memphis some cap relief (Cardinal has 2 years remaining on his contract, and Mason only one) and keeps them in the top 10 in the draft, while pretty much assuring the Bucks a shot at Kevin Love. If Memphis is interested in trading down, this would be fair.

New Jersey: Stromile Swift and the #10 pick for Charlie Bell, Charlie Villanueva and the #8. If New Jersey sees a player they want they may be interested in moving up a couple of spots to get him. Swift’s contract has one year left, and should the Nets then resign Villanueva to a 1 year qualifying offer, then he would be gone the following year and this trade would help New Jersey’s master plan of being under the cap when LeBron opts out of his contract in 2 years.

Orlando: Brian Cook and the #22 pick for Villanueva. While Cook is pretty much useless, this trade should land the Bucks in the perfect spot to get Richard Hendrix while still allowing them to keep their other two picks. Orlando gets a player who can help them now (instead of risking that their draft pick doesn’t pan out) and the ability to move Rashard Lewis back to small forward without losing a key contributor.

What does this show you? While Villanueva has talent, he’s not exactly going to command much of a premium around the league. He’s not so good that he can command a valuable, inexpensive player in return; nor is he so valuable that he would be much of an incentive in packaging him with one of the Bucks’ bad contracts for a really good player.

John Hammond has his work cut out for him. Of all of these trades, the only one I could see the other party likely to do is the one with Orlando, and I’m sure Hammond thinks he can get more than the #22 pick for a guy who was the runner-up ROY a couple of years ago.

In the Racine Journal-Times, Gery Woelfel wrote an interesting piece about his asking around the Bucks locker room before Scott Skiles was hired to get the players’ opinions on him. He said that one player was definitely not enamored of the idea of playing for a coach that actually insists on running an offensive system and playing hard on defense.

“There was one player, however, whose face began to cringe almost in a painful manner when I mentioned Skiles. His look spoke volumes.

It was amply apparent he wasn’t a Skiles’ guy, and it was equally apparent he wasn’t looking forward to playing for him.

The player went on to say that he had conversations with several members of the Chicago Bulls, whom Skiles coached until being fired last December — on Christmas Eve, of all times.

What this particular player heard from some of the Bulls about Skiles was anything but complimentary. To some Bulls, Skiles was condescending, egotistical and insensitive. And, no, they weren’t sad to see him fired.

First of all, Skiles wasn’t fired — he resigned. But that’s semantics.

So who is the mystery source? Lets speculate:

With the NBA being a fairly small fraternity, most players would have some familiarity with each other regardless of whether or not they have played together, so my speculation is pretty thin. But lets see what connections the Bucks players might have with the Bulls players.

The only Bull (as of Christmas, when Skiles left) with a recent history with the Bucks is Joe Smith, but he was only with the Bulls for a few months, and doesn’t seem like much of a complainer.

I doubt Woelfel’s source was Jake Voskuhl, Michael Ruffin, Royal Ivey or David Noel, as their contracts expire and they most likely wont be on the team next year. Awvee Storey is a Chicago native, but also won’t be here. It wouldn’t make sense for Ramon Sessions or Yi Jianlian to be the source.

One would think that Andrew Bogut would welcome Skiles, and since everyone already knows that he can’t stand NBA players, there’s no reason for him to talk to members of the Bulls.

Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell have spent their entire careers with the Bucks, and neither of them seem like the sort of player to object to Skiles.

Desmond Mason’s connection with the Bulls would be that he was teammates with PJ Brown for one year in New Orleans, who played with Chicago in 06-07. But Brown was on the Bulls were winning, and I’m sure everyone got along just fine then. It certainly doesn’t sound like Mason to complain about a coach he doesn’t know.

I can’t think of any connection between Mo Williams and any Bulls players, but I could be wrong.

This sort of reaction doesn’t seem like something Michael Redd would do, although apparently he and Smith had a pretty good relationship. Redd was also an Olympic Trials teammate with Kirk Hinrich. Still, it doesn’t sound right for Redd to say something like that, even if that’s what he was thinking. He’s a little more media savvy than that.

That leaves Bobby Simmons and Charlie Villanueva.

Simmons is a Chicagoan who most likely spends time with the Bulls players that stay in the area in the summer (many NBA players work out at Tim Grover’s gym, and the South Side summer pickup games are legendary). Simmons also was traded to Detroit in the Jerry Stackhouse-Richard Hamilton trade (and was cut before the season started), so he was a teammate of Ben Wallace for a short time. Wallace and Skiles did not get along from the beginning. Simmons has complained in the past about the Bucks’ coaching turnover.

Villanueva went to college with Ben Gordon, another player who always chafed under Skiles. Gordon had an issue with his minutes and never liked coming off of the bench, while Skiles had an issue with Gordon’s defense and shot selection. One could say that every coach would have the same issues with Villanueva.

So it seems most likely that Woelfel’s mystery “Skiles hater” is either Villanueva or Simmons. That’s convenient, since those are the two guys least likely to still be on the team next season.

Sounds to me like a non-issue.

Continuing my season review, today I am concentrating on the three mid-priced players that were complete enigmas for the Bucks this season.

Charlie Villanueva ($2.71M, 0.766 IPM): The deck was clearly stacked against Charlie V from the get-go this season. Coach Krystkowiak was telling the media that energy in practice and defensive intensity would determine playing time, but everybody knew that Yi had already been promised the starting power forward position. So even though there was nothing that Charlie V could do to get more playing time (especially since it would take Krystkowiak 60 games to try playing V and Yi together), Krystkowiak’s early position made it look like Villanueva was simply too lazy to earn court time.

On the court, Villanueva make an admirable recovery from last seasons’ shoulder injury to at least regain the form of his first two seasons, but he hasn’t really improved upon his rookie season at all. His game has stayed the same – he shoots too much from outside, rebounds pretty well (nine double-doubles in 31 starts), passes well for a big man, turns it over too much, doesn’t quite get as many blocks and steals as you would like, and is easily overpowered on defense.

Villanueva is wildly inconsistent on the court, simply not showing up every night. Just recently, he followed up a 2 point, 4 board, 1-6 shooting night against Boston with 38 points and 12 boards the next night against Toronto. It’s incredible how often he has a great game followed by a complete head-scratcher.

Often people look at that sort of inconsistency and thing; “Just wait until he figures it all out!� I look at it differently – Charlie Villanueva is the 6’11� version of Jamal Crawford: Half the time he’s awesome, half the time he’s awful and it all averages out to a completely average player. Guys like that don’t change – you don’t just suddenly become “consistent�.

Fortunately Villanueva has the tantalizing talent, relatively low paycheck and track record as former ROY-runner up to make him a reasonable bargaining chip in an offseason trade. It’s very difficult to win with a player like him, as he is such a unique athlete that he creates matchup problems wherever he plays – for both the opponents and his own team – and you never know if All-Star Charlie or Putrid Charlie will show up on any given night.

Villanueva was misused this season by Krystkowiak. He’s much better than a 15-minute bench guy as he was treated early in the season, but he’s not a dependable 35-minute workhorse either. Winning with a guy like Villanueva on your team requires the coach to have a lot of imagination about how to use him, willingness to yank him when he’s doing poorly, and probably a double-standard regarding his practice habits because you need his head in the game. Krystkowiak failed on all counts regarding Charlie V.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 10%

Yi Jianlian ($2.77M, 0.618 IPM): Hope for the best, fear the worst. After a season where Yi’s play got worse and worse and excuses started to mount around him, I worry.

The most enduring image of Yi’s rookie season, besides his picture-perfect jump shot, will have to be that of him flailing his arms after getting his shot blocked. According to 82games.com, he finished the season having 36% of his “in close� shots blocked, and only made 31% of those tries. As the season went on, this inability to convert clearly started to wear on Yi, as he began barking at the officials after every time he got stripped. He simply had a horrible time adjusting to the physicality and athleticism of NBA big men. Despite being a pretty legitimate 250 pounds and having a decent vertical, he is just awful at taking contact.

There’s really no reason to believe that he’s 20 years old any more as baseball’s experience has pretty much proven that once a player is rumored to be older than his listed age then he most likely is. So since we have to assume that he’s more like 24 years old then we have to assume that he’s pretty much not going to change all that much as a player – he’s not going to develop a crossover dribble or gain 30 pounds of muscle. As for the rumors that he has three point range and can do a 360 dunk – well, he shot about 20% from the international 3-point line his last year in China, and I remember hearing rumors when Eddy Curry was in High School that he could do a backflip. I’d pay $100 to see Curry try that now. Just because something is rumored only means it’s a rumor.

So just how good is Yi? Well, in his best month this season he averaged 12 ppg and 6.6 rpg. I think he can beat that for a full season, but I don’t think he will ever play physically enough to be a 20 ppg scorer. However, this could change if the next coach simply does a better job of getting him the ball. It seems that the Bucks should have been running a pick-and-pop play 25 times a game for Yi, but that never seemed to happen. In fact, it seemed to me that Yi rarely even got the ball in the post when he would call for it – almost as though his teammates were freezing him out. Strange.

Young superstars may take some time to blossom, but you almost always get a glimpse at their talent by then end of their rookie season. You can’t say that about Yi – it seems more like he’s got an air of “okay player when things go right� about him instead of “All-Star�.

There is also the issue of the amount of rest he will get in the summer – while much was made over him being tired after playing all of last summer, he will play in the Olympics this summer, the Asian games the year after than and the World Championship after that. Adding to the problem is that Yi’s Chinese handlers see his NBA experience as training for his summer international competition, so it’s not like they will take it easy on him in the summer.

I guess I’ve done a pretty good job of making it sound like Yi was a really bad pick, but that’s not true. For how incredibly deep the 2007 draft was supposed to be, it now appears that there weren’t that many great players available after the top 3. It looks like the only players taken after Yi who the Bucks may one day regret passing on could be Thaddeus Young and Brandan Wright, and even at his advanced age Yi still has about as much upside as them.

Of course, there are also the financial implications of Yi’s presence to consider. Yi caused the Bucks to play several games that were viewed by as many as 1 billion people worldwide this season, and was also the reason for the sale of several prominent ads at the Bradley Center. The money that cam from Yi this season is probably the difference between the Bucks making a losing money this year – and probably the reason that Herb Kohl was willing to spend enough to hire John Hammond away from Detroit and to apparently have a blank check available for the next coach.

However, it’s an open question as to how long the Yi cash flow will continue. He has to be good for anyone back home to care about him much longer. While Hideki Matsui and Ichiro are still superstars in Japan and have dozens of Japanese media still following them, it is long forgotten that Kaz Matsui arrived in New York with similar hype. While there is no way to conceive of potentially trading Yi because of the money he brings in, if he doesn’t start bringing it on the court next season then that cash flow will dry up quickly. One interesting note is that earlier in the season several of my posts about Yi were translated into Chinese and posted on a major message board there. That all stopped around mid-January, so after his struggles maybe the interest in him in China is already starting to wane.

In the end, it was a very disappointing season for Yi as he hit the wall in January and his play got worse and worse from there. After how his season ended with such a whimper it’s hard to even remember that he was a solid enough contributor early in the season. It’s a shame for Larry Krystkowiak that he was essentially forced to give Yi the starting job (compromising his whole “earn playing time through practice� message in the process) only to find Yi unable to carry the load.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 15%

Jake “Invisible Man� Voskuhl ($3M, 0.587 IPM): What a strange season for Voskuhl. He took over as the backup center early on (after Dan Gadzuric got benched and Michael Ruffin got hurt) and played pretty well, posting a 0.69 IPM as of January 6. Suddenly he stopped playing, and when he did play he was awful.

He never went on the injured list but must have been hurt, as he started getting DNP’s even in blowouts. It’s too bad, since once Yi started struggling, Voskuhl was their best offensive big man on the bench. He always dressed for the games, but rarely saw action beyond running onto the court at timeouts telling his teammates to keep their heads up after allowing yet another 12-0 run.

His $3 million expiring contract means that we wont be seeing him in a Bucks uniform again, which is too bad because it means he wont be around for anyone to ask him where he went for the second half of the season.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Up next: the Aussie and the Flintstone

Drew Olson at OnMilwaukee.com managed to find the clip of Andrew Bogut high-fiving the air after a made free-throw in Atlanta on Wednesday. I had watched it during the game and assumed I would never get to relive the moment, but thankfully someone caught it and put it up on YouTube.

What does it mean? Well it’s amusing to say the least. A lot of OMC commenters went back and tried to say it was because of Bogut’s remarks about NBA players over the summer. I don’t think that’s it. We would have seen that all season long if that were the case.

What could it be? How about the idea that Charlie V and Player X (I’m not sure who the player on the other side was) had simply zoned out? Isn’t it possible that after losing twice to the Heat in a week, having to go on the road to Atlanta, and falling behind early that the players had mentally checked out?

If you watch the video closely, you can see Charlie V turn his head as Bogut makes the free throw to watch Zaza run out of the game. Possibly some sound over the speaker system snapped him back to life, but not in time to high-five Bogut.

In short, I really don’t think this is as big of a deal as everyone seems to want to make it out to be. It wasn’t a personal dig against Bogut. It simply was just a case of a losing team losing on the road resulting in players not paying attention.

Players are going to do a lot of things on auto-pilot as a season goes along, I think this was one of them that just happened to be caught on camera.

According to the New York Daily News, the Bucks (and the Knicks) have been pursuing Indiana Pacers CEO Donnie Walsh to join the front office next season.

This would be a good hire, as Walsh was the architect of the Pacers’ run of success dating back to the early 90’s, but considering that there are other teams in the mix and that he is 67 years old, I’d guess that his actually coming to Milwaukee would be a long shot. The more important story is that it signals the end for Larry Harris.

Reading between the lines, it has been pretty obvious that Harris was about done. Their failure to make any moves, the rumors about the ridiculous Zach Randolph, and Kohl’s silence about extending Harris’ contract were signals, but if they are now actively pursuing a replacement, it’s a done deal. And it’s time, too. Harris assembled this team and now it needs changes. Those changes are tough to make if you are emotionally invested in bringing the current pieces in.

I know that money talks and the Knicks can offer far more money than the Bucks can, but honestly Milwaukee would probably be a more appealing destination for Walsh.

Consider the pros and cons:

Knicks

Significantly higher salary.
Seemlingly unlimited roster budget.
Money no object for hiring coaches and assistants.
Ridiculous roster makes it impossible to make major changes until 2009/10.
Roster contains three players who would have any trade value (Lee, Balkman, Robinson).
Walsh is from New York.
Owes a future first round pick to Utah.
Horrible, insular working nvironment and culture at Madison Square Garden.
Owner is completely insane.
Highest paid player is completely insane.

Bucks:

Limited cap manuverability until 2010.
Five potential trade chips in case of a major overhaul (Redd, Williams, Bogut, Yi, Villanueva).
Location is closer to Indianapolis-based family.
Payroll limited to below luxury tax.

Money aside, the Bucks job is far more appealing. Would you honestly want to work for James Dolan? Would you really want to take on a complete organizational housecleaning at 67 years old? Wouldn’t you rather have the Bucks’ relatively inexpensive core to work with over the Knicks’ completely disjointed one?

Anyway, I’m sure that the Knicks checkbook will carry the day in this battle, while the Pacers’ current VP of Basketball Operations, David Morway, might be the Bucks’ consolation prize as their next GM.

Meanwhile, I attended my first Bucks game in a couple of weeks last night against the Heat, and I came away thoroughly perplexed.

It cannot be overstated just how bad the Heat are right now. They dressed nine players. They are missing their three best projected opening night starters (Wade and Haslem out, Shaq gone). Marion was a nonfactor, playing 28 minutes and with the Bucks outscoring the Heat by 10 with him in. They were so starved for wins that their bench was acting like it was game seven of the finals. Jason Williams actually looked interested!

Clearly the Bucks should have won this game going away, but that isn’t the only thing that has me confused. The season is now lost, so at this point shouldn’t learning a little about your team be a goal, instead of tossing out the same old lineups that haven’t worked all season?

Instead, after the game, Krystkowiak talked to the Journal Sentinel and vaguely blamed his players.

“We’ve talked about just about everything,” (Krystkowiak) said. “I’m not afraid to repeat some stuff but it’s frustrating. We need to be self-starters. We’ll look at the plan . . . what broke down as far as the tactical approach. . . . We’ll see as coaches if we can fix that and not put ourselves in the (same) position.

“Players have to take more responsibility. We all have to. Everybody has to step up a little bit here. It’s not a time for speeches and a lot of talk. It’s getting out and playing.”

I don’t really understand what Krystkowiak is trying to say here. I guess he’s decided that his players aren’t doing what he wants them to for whatever reason. But who is that really an indictment of? Doesn’t that reflect back on him?

I think that this was a veiled shot at Mo Williams’ defense, specifically his complete inability to get through picks and keep Jason Williams from getting open 3 after open 3. It got so bad that eventually Krystkowiak switched Mason onto Jason Williams (which didn’t stop Chris Quinn from getting 3 open 3’s himself in the 4th quarter).

But my real problem with Krystkowiak in this game was my usual complaint about him — lack of imagination. It’s time to realize that some new lineups — for a few minutes at a time — are necessary. Just a couple of adjustments might have given a little insight into the team, and maybe even saved the game.

Two examples:

When the Bucks were cruising along with a 13 point lead in the 3rd quarter I turned to my friend and said, “Now’s the time to bring in Yi for Mason.” Yi looks awful right now, and seems to be moving at half speed, but he did an okay job against Marion in the first half and that would have moved Villanueva to the 3. This was a perfect situation to try a big lineup out. How would Villanueva have looked matched up with Ricky Davis? What would Pat Riley have done? If it doesn’t work and Miami runs off a quick 6-0 run, then take Yi out.

In the fourth quarter, when the Bucks were in the process of blowing the game but hadn’t quite lost the lead yet, Krystkowiak gave Mo a rest and trotted out a lineup of Ivey-Bell-Mason-Yi-Ruffin. How, exactly, is that supposed to work? Who is supposed to score? With Yi in such a funk, not one of those players is remotely capable of creating a shot. Not surprisingly, that lineup was on the floor while Miami would take their eventual lead. Why not use Sessions in that situation? You would get a real point guard in there, someone who is bigger who might be able to defend a pick-and-roll a little better, and he would be matched up against a relatively poor defender (either Jason Williams or Chris Quinn). Don’t you want to see what you have in Sessions, even if it’s only for a couple of minutes at a time?

Either way, it is clear: from his actions during the game and his comments after it, Krystkowiak is missing the point: winning is still the goal, but the time has come to accept that what you have done to this point hasn’t worked. It’s time to think up some new options with an eye toward the future. If you are going to lose to Miami anyway, it’s pointless to lose to them by doing the exact same things that have carried you to 43 other losses this season.

Now that the Bucks have run off a 3-1 stretch against playoff teams, capped by the spectacular ending to the Cleveland game, you have to wonder — has this team actually underachieved all year? Should this team actually be closer to 35 wins right now than 25?

Well, that’s pushing it — they are getting kind of lucky.

Going back to the New Orleans game before the all-star break, the Bucks have caught some favors from the schedule makers. The Hornets, Pistons and Nuggets were all coming into the Bradley Center in the second games of back-to-backs, while the Cavaliers were using only one player (LeBron James) who had been a starter for them just one week prior. With Ilgauskas out sick and Daniel Gibson injured, the rest of their starting lineup was made up of two new players (Ben Wallace and Delonte West) and two bench players (Anderson Varejao and Devin Brown — although Brown was quickly replaced with Wally Sczcerbiak). Lets just say that the Cavs weren’t very familiar with each other, kind of like a pickup team.

The good thing about this run is that they are now back on pace to grab a playoff spot, as I wrote earlier this month. After blowing two easy wins (Knicks and Clippers) I wrote them off for dead, but they have come back to win two games I had marked as losses and won one “toss up” game (five games which I felt they needed to go 3-2 in). Meanwhile Atlanta has slumped despite adding Mike Bibby and New Jersey and Chicago are struggling. The Bucks still have a shot at 34 wins, and that still might be good enough to get in.

If there is one huge compliment I can give Larry Krystkowiak it is this: after all the blowout losses early and after after the supposedly-contentious team meeting before the New Orleans game, this team has not given up.

But is Krystkowiak doing anything differently?

The first thing I thought is that Redd and Williams are getting more shots and the Bucks are playing at a faster pace. That’s not true at all. Redd and Williams may be getting a few more shots but they are playing more minutes as well — as a whole, the backcourt is still putting up about 40-45 shots per night. The Bucks haven’t picked up the pace, either. Their pace seems to be pretty consistently dictated by the team they play — not surprisingly the Denver game was the highest-paced Bucks game of the season, and the Cleveland and New Orleans games were relatively slow.

The biggest difference is that he seems to have said, “screw the front office, I’m not playing Yi any more.” It was as plain as day that Yi’s prolonged slump since New Years had been killing them, and the team is much better with Charlie Villanueva starting and paying attention for 35 mpg than floating through 20. I’m sure Yi isn’t complaining, either — with Yao out for the season and unlikely to be full strength for the Olympics, Yi will now be the centerpiece of Team China this summer. He’s going to have to work harder this summer than he ever would in the NBA — the rest of the Chinese National Team started practice for the Olympics a full three weeks ago. The only way Yi gets rest before next season is to get it now.

Krystkowiak has also decided to go for broke and bury his entire bench. This is an excellent move. There is plenty of statistical evidence to show that the Bucks’ bench has been the worst in the entire NBA this season, and remarkably as players like Bell, Ivey, Gadzuric and Simmons play less the Bucks record improves. Against Cleveland the entire bench played only 45 minutes and took three shots.

However, this no-bench strategy begs one question — how long can they go before exhaustion takes over and Redd or Williams’ shooting arm comes flying off? That’s why I’m still nervous about their playoff chances. Don’t get me wrong, I think that riding Redd, Williams and Bogut as far as they can take you is the right thing to do (since everyone else has proven that they can’t shoulder the load). But I don’t know how long you can go by playing Redd, Williams, Mason and Bogut between 37 and 47 minutes a night.

The bottom line, though, is I’d rather they lose by running and gunning with their best players on the floor, not by using “defenders” who can’t defend. And if they can keep shooting themselves into games and steal a few more wins this way, all the better.

With 29 games remaining, Bucks fans can pretty much forget about a playoff run, especially now that Atlanta has brought in a real point guard in Mike Bibby and it appears that the Jason Kidd trade has fallen apart for New Jersey. I suppose that it’s possible for this team to run off a long home winning streak (they do have 18 home games left), but to think that they can leap over four teams is a bit of a long shot.

So what else would I like to see over the rest of the season?

Choose an offensive identity and stick with it. All season long, I have expressed my frustration with Krystkowiak’s strategy of slowing the game down in an effort to improve the team’s defense. Of course, the net result is that the Bucks’ offense has gotten worse while their defense has stayed equally bad. There are indications that Krystkowiak now wants to open up the offense more, leading to more shots for Mo and Redd at the expense of Bogut. As far as I’m concerned, the faster a pace the Bucks play the better — if they are blessed with anything it is several high-percentage scorers, as their top five players all shoot better than 43.5% (and Redd is uncharacteristically low at that number). I’d much rather see this team trying to outscore teams rather than beat them with defense.

Rest Yi. Yi Jianlian has clearly hit the “rookie wall” and needs a break. The problem is that with Olympic duties looming this summer, Yi isn’t going to get much rest this summer. I wouldn’t mind if Yi comes up with a “sprained ankle” or “sprained shoulder” that keeps him out of a few games. Let him get some rest now, because the last thing we need to hear in training camp next season is how he’s tired from the summer.

Lots of playing time for Charlie Villanueva. Either at power forward or small forward, Villanueva needs to be in the starting lineup, playing big minutes, and showcasing himself for an offseason trade. Not counting the game in which he sprained his ankle, Charlie V averaged 17.6 points and 12 rebounds in his three starts. He is never going to start at power forward for this team (Yi is too important to the financial future of the franchise to ever be moved) so either we have to see if he can play small forward or move him. He’s about the most desirable trade chip this team has, so if he puts up big numbers in the final two months of the season he should garner some interest around the league.

Get Michael Redd some better shots. For any number of reasons, Redd has been suffering through a poor shooting season by his standards. To the casual observer it looks like he takes a ton of bad shots, but I think the problem is that he has been having trouble getting open. I believe that part of this is that he has been spending far to much time at small forward — where his size is negated by his lack of strength and quickness. But the rest of the offensive strategy has to bear some blame for not getting him open as well. You would think that the Bucks would run a steady diet of pick-and-rolls with Redd and Yi (only with Yi fading for a jumper than rolling to the basket).

But this brings me to something else I have noticed all season — is it possible that Redd is freezing out Yi? While Yi does not post up enough, I don’t think that I’ve seen Redd toss a post entry pass to Yi all year, and I’ve definitely seen Redd pass up on feeding Yi several times. I hate to think something like this about somebody like Redd, but could he be refusing to involve Yi because of jealousy over Yi’s profile in the recognition? Does Redd have a problem with not being the face of the franchise as he used to?

I’ve noticed this all season, but really started to wonder after the December 22 game against Charlotte, when Yi scored 29 points on 14-17 shooting. Yi had 25 after 3 quarters, and suddenly Redd started firing up shots from anywhere in the fourth, taking nine shots to Yi’s four. You could almost hear Redd saying, “No way this guy’s leading us in scoring tonight.” And while the Bucks led that game by 22 late in the third quarter, Redd’s decisions to pull the trigger early in the shot clock so many times contributed to the final victory margin only being four points.

It pains me to suggest this, but it does remind me of the 2002 Bulls when Jalen Rose openly refused to pass to Jay Williams. There’s absolutely no evidence to support what I’m saying, but it bears watching — I think that Redd’s next post entry pass to Yi will be his first.

Either extend Larry Harris’ contract — or don’t. For all of the complaints about how Harris has done as GM, the truth is that he has done about as well as he could in running a franchise that had been short-circuted by the mismanagement of Ernie Grunfeld (as he had traded away the Bucks’ 2004 first round pick in 2000 and had somehow managed to trade their 2003 pick along with Ray Allen for a two month rental of Gary Payton). Now Herb Kohl has a decision to make — either let Harris try to continue building the team, or to hand the reigns to someone else. My guess is that the answer will be someone else — and if the Bucks are silent on the trade front between now and the deadline, it will be a stong sign that Kohl has tied Harris’ hands and that he will be gone before the NBA draft.

Stop getting blown out by good teams! As the Dallas and New Orleans game showed, there was no reason for the incredible early-season run of 20+ point blowout losses to good teams. This is probably the single biggest indictment of Larry Krystkowiak’s coaching philosophy — good teams have chewed up his gameplans in minutes. This team may not be a championship contender, but it also has no business getting blown out at a pace similar to that of the worst teams in NBA history.

I don’t think it’s too much to ask for. I don’t want them to tank games for draft position (this years’ draft looks to be full of busts to me). I just want this team to play hard, not to quit on their coach, and to be competitive through the end of the year.

How in the world can you blow a 17 point lead with 14 minutes remaining?

First of all, I don’t care that Mo Williams was out. Everybody has to deal with losing starters, and the Knicks were also playing without Nate Robinson (as well as the addition-by-subtraction loss of Stephon Marbury).

Isiah Thomas even threw in the towel in the third quarter — after the Bucks extended their lead to 81-64, Thomas brought in Malik Rose and Renaldo Balkman, to go with David Lee, Jamal Crawford and Fred Jones, and didn’t make a single substitution for the rest of the game! He stopped coaching for 10 minutes (basically just telling his guys; “just do whatever you want and see what happens”), not calling a timeout until the Knicks had made a game of it at 93-86.

The “Wages of Wins” believers will try to say that David Lee was the reason the Knicks came back and won the game, but Lee didn’t really do anything out of the ordinary. His 8-12 shooting and 9 rebounds (4 offensive) looks great, but that’s just typical sneaky David Lee stuff — he shoots 55% anyway, so a 7-12 game would be average for him, and in his normal 32 minute outing he averages 10 boards (3 offensive). So he had a pretty typical game for hin — just your standard, underrated scrappy stuff that has carried the Knicks a 13-36 record against teams other than the Bucks this season.

Jamal Crawford was on fire, making all sorts of crazy stuff on his way to 30 points. That can happen with Crawford — he’s an average player overall but he either looks like a world-beater or the worst player in the league on any given night. The Knicks had good Jamal on Saturday, and their record is pretty respectable when he springs for 28+ points. This is a perfect example of how using a player “because he’s a good defender” is stupid. Crawford was making everything, and there really wasn’t much Ivey could do (within the rules, anyway) to stop him. Guys like Crawford will get hot sometimes and that’s life. So Ivey couldn’t do anything to stop Crawford early, and by shooting 2-9 and scoring 4 points, Ivey didn’t help out offensively as well. So Crawford isn’t really the reason the Knicks won the game — he helped, but even with him putting up big numbers this game was winnable.

No, it comes down to coaching. Larry Krystkowiak, I have a few questions for you. Specifically:

When you have a 17 point lead, why would you wait until the Knicks have run off 15 unanswered points before calling a timeout? I can see the logic that Krystkowiak wanted to let the quarter run out and then things got out of hand, but this is the second time this season that the Bucks have blown a big 3rd quarter lead to the Knicks. After they got two or three consecutive baskets, why would you not call timeout to break the Knicks’ rhythm and remind the guys that the Bucks have been in this situation against New York before?

How does Charlie Villanueva get one shot in the fourth quarter? He shot 10-22 for the game and didn’t see the ball in seven minutes of work in the fourth. He shot 6-12 and grabbed 6 rebounds in the third quarter. Is anyone calling plays here? Did anyone realize that the Knicks went small, were using a 6′7″ and 6′9″ frontcourt, and Isiah wasn’t bothering with substitutes?

How does Bogut get two shots in the fourth quarter? He made one and then got called for his sixth foul on the second. Once again, he was being guarded by 6′7 Malik Rose.

Why would you not go big with Gadzuric in the fourth quarter? Krytkowiak used Gadzuric at power forward a little against Dallas and it worked quite well. The Knicks were charging back into the game with their small lineup so why wouldn’t you try to force the Knicks out of it? Get Ivey out of the game, let Bell play point guard, and move Villanueva to small forward so that Redd will be guarded by Crawford instead of Balkman. Then Gadzuric’s athleticism can at least try to match Lee’s, Villanueva has a big height advantage over Balkman, and Redd gets to pick on the worst defender in the league.

Why in the world was Michael Ruffin in the game on the final posession? Michael Ruffin is the WORST OFFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA! In a nine year career he has averaged 4.2 points per 36 minutes. He is a nice enough player, and his strengths in other areas makes up for his lack of scoring. But you cannot have him in the game in a situation where you have to get a basket.

I’m no NBA coach, but I know for certain that if I was in Isiah Thomas’ shoes drawing up my defense for the final play I’m doubling Redd hard with Ruffin’s man (Lee or Rose) and hoping to force the ball into Ruffin or Ivey’s (2-9 shooting) hands. Wouldn’t you know that’s exactly what Isiah did — when the Bucks first ran their inbounds play, Redd was doubled as soon as he caught the inbounds pass and fouled (the Knicks had a foul to give). As Redd was fouled, he passed the ball to Ivey, who would have had an open 20-footer for the win (which would have been option #2 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Instead, the Knicks denied Redd the ball on the second try, leaving Bell with multiple defenders running at him and no choice but to dump it off to an open Ruffin (#1 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Incredibly, the Knicks were able to double team two guys on the final play, because the Bucks were using two players (Ivey and Ruffin) that Isiah didn’t mind being open.

You needed a shot from a decent scorer. Why wasn’t Yi in for Ruffin? If it was me, I’d have had Simmons inbounding instead of Ivey, but that’s nitpicking — it’s not like Simmons was any good last night, either. But Michael Ruffin? Michael Ruffin. In a situation where he might take the last shot. Michael Ruffin. He’s 6′8. He’s taken 19 shots this season. When you have a 7-foot shooter on your bench. Really. Michael Ruffin.

Well, anyhow, another day another loss. This was on the list of “games the Bucks need to win if they are going to make the playoffs”, so one more bad loss and they need to start beating good teams to make up ground. The door is closing. If they lose Monday to the Clippers, then it will slam shut.

I watched most of the Bucks-Grizzlies games simply feeling bad for just about everyone involved in the game. There must have been 800 fans in the building at tipoff because of the weather. Bogut started out getting schooled by Darko Milicic of all people. Mike Miller was getting open jumpers whenever he wanted. The game even marked the arrival of the Kwame Brown “I just don’t really care all that much” tour to Memphis (great line by Jon McGlocklin when Brown was called for a foul on Gadzuric despite not coming within about a foot of him: “Brown didn’t even say a word! He just sort of shrugged his shoulders like, ‘okay’.”)Krystkowiak even started Bell and Ivey (giving up a total of 10 inches to Mike Miller and Rudy Gay), but I can’t complain about it because he didn’t have a choice.

Without Yi available, then Simmons had to play backup power forward (no word on why Voskuhl and Michael Ruffin are now apparently benched). So with Mason only in his second game back then Bell had to start at small forward, and without Redd that leaves only two more guards on the active roster. Is Harris planning on doing anything about this thin backcourt? I can’t wait for Mo to need to take a game off to rest his injured thumb (which will need surgery after the season). Then does Bell and Ivey play 48 minutes each?

Lets just say that this game didn’t give me much confidence in my playoff prediction. Thank you Mo for the personal 10-0 run to seal the game.

Meanwhile, can we finally put to bed the myth of Royal Ivey as a good defensive player?

Mike Miller went for 32 points (14 above his average) on 12-21 shooting. Especially in the first half he was able to get wide open looks almost whenever he wanted, ostensibly while on Ivey’s watch. The only thing that stopped him all night was getting clubbed in the face a couple of times by Villanueva.

Of course, Ivey has a reputation as a good defender and he must always bring the energy in practice, because he sure does play a lot. However, as I wrote a couple of weeks ago, I’m convinced that in order to get a good defensive reputation all you have to do is look good in your defensive stance and look annoyed when you get beat. Since the rules of basketball are slanted toward the offensive player, it is very difficult to actually judge just how “good” a defender someone is. I think that there are generally two types of great defensive players — people with the “whole package” (elite athletes with size/strength advantages who bring the effort all the time) and cheap shot artists (who make up for their lack of athleticism with a lack of morality). Just because a guy tries to fight through screens doesn’t make him a good defender — just someone who tries hard. In reality, though, a good defender is someone who holds his opponent to less production than he himself produces offensively. Talent always wins out in basketball — if you aren’t big, strong or fast enough that will get exploited, no matter how hard you try (although lack of effort will get exploited, too. Just ask Kwame Brown).

The trouble is that Ivey is nowhere near an average offensive player, so even if he could hold the people he defends to average production then he would still be a net-negative player.

The myth of Ivey’s defense is borne out in the stats, thanks to 82games.com. Ivey has played 37% of the time and the Bucks have been outscored by 11.1 points per 48 minutes with him on the court and by 5.3 pp/48 without him. They rebound slightly better without him, committ one more foul/48 with him and draw one fewer foul/48 without him.

82games.com also breaks down each players’ performance by the position they are playing, as well as the performance of their counterparts while in the game. The story is told by PER (Player Efficiency Rating — very similar to IPM). An average player will have a PER of 15, while a 20 PER is close to all-star level. Ivey is a poor offensive player (PER of 11.9 at point guard and 11.2 at shooting guard) while he turns the people he defends into studs (opposing point guards have a 22.3 PER against him and shooting guards run up a 19.4). On average he scores 14 points per 48 minutes and the guys he guards score 23.

Of course, with the thin backcourt it is all a moot point — Ivey has to play. But this just shows what a mistake it is to add a player to a team because his lack of offense makes you believe his defense is good.

And, while I’m bringing up statistics and love to go on and on about how Charlie Villanueva should play more, I just wanted to point out one more thing:

Yi Jianlian: 48 starts, 1 double-double
Desmond Mason: 25 starts, 1 double-double
Bobby Simmons: 20 starts, no double-doubles
Charlie Villanueva: 1 start, 2 double-doubles

Just saying.

All in all, while it was a truly uninspiring win against Memphis, it was a win. Considering that the Bucks were down three starters (and only had one should-be starter to plug in) they deserve some credit for withstanding the Grizzlies’ early run and hanging around until the end.

Now it’s off to Dallas, where a blowout loss wont really matter much. At least they split the road trip.