The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

It’s only been a few games, but what are last years’ Bucks doing with their new team?

With one notable exception, not much.

You remember how I used to maintain that Royal Ivey wasn’t much of a defensive player, and even if he was, he was so bad offensively that it doesn’t really matter? Well, he has only played 7 minutes per game for a Philly team that is off to a slow start, and they have been outscored by 8 ppg with him on the floor while outscoring their opponents by 3.5 ppg without him. Ivey was the Bucks’ sixth man for long stretches last season … and he is being used much more effectively now. He is shooting 43%, not bad for him.

After shooting 48% for the Bucks last season, Desmond Mason is back up to his old tricks, only shooting 38% in 27 mpg for the Thunder. He’s also turning the ball over more than last year, rebounding worse, and getting fewer assists. At 31 years old, the athleticism is likely starting to wane, and the Bucks were lucky to have gotten as effective a season out of him as they did.

Mo Williams is off to a slow start with the Cavs, only shooting 40% and seeing his numbers fall off in nearly every other category. However, after going into a new situation in Cleveland, an adjustment period is to be expected and with the ball in LeBron’s hands, a decline in Mo’s numbers can only be expected. As the Bucks-Cavs game showed, the team is doing just fine with Mo.

You thought Bobby Simmons was bad last year? Oh man, look at him now! He’s playing 27 minutes a game and shooting 33%. His rebounds are down to 3.5 per 40 minutes and assists are down to 1 per 40 minutes. At least he’s not turning it over much, but the real problem is he isn’t really doing anything on the court. In my post-season recap last year I wrote that Simmons’ averages last year were almost the same as his previous four years, not counting the big 04-05 season that got him his big contract. Well, he’s underperforming those numbers by a lot. He recently made some comments about needing to do more without the ball, but the real problem is what he does with the ball near the basket — he is shooting 45% on jumpers but only 20% close to the hoop.

Don’t look now, but Yi Jianlian is off to a really nice start for the Nets. He is playing 27 minutes a game and has an IPM of 0.83, making him the #20 forward in the league for this young season. He is shooting a little worse (41%) but is actually rebounding this season — averaging 11.9 boards per 40 minutes! He’s doing everything a little better this season — getting more assists, averaging a block per game, and not turning it over. However, his defense probably still has problems — the Nets aren’t really doing any better with him on the floor. And, just to be sure this is Yi Jianlian we are talking about, he is still getting 25% of his shots close to the basket blocked.

I started watching the USA-China game when it was 35-32, so all I saw was a US romp, but I was most interested to see if it looks like Yi would look any more authoritative on the court than he did on the Bradley Center floor last season.

Nope.

Aside from a nice follow dunk, Yi was pretty bad. And according to ESPN.com’s Chris sheridan, I missed the worst of Yi’s game. 4-13 shooting, 3 rebounds, two turnovers. Nine points. Non-factor.

Sheridan’s description:

Remember that rookie wall he hit back in February? Back before the Milwaukee Bucks got rid of him?

He’s still hitting it.

But the best line of all, from Sheridan’s artice, was from Michael Redd, when asked who got the better end of the Yi-Richard Jefferson trade:

We did, oh we did, we did, we did, we did. We’re happy, no question.”

Sounds about right.

According to CNN-SI, the Bucks have agreed to trade Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons for Richard Jefferson.

Wow.

From a basketball standpoint, I love it.

From a financial standpoint, if the Bucks are willing to do it, then I’m all for it.

What’s most interesting about this move is that it sure does throw the idea of drafting Joe Alexander by the wayside. Does John Hammond have another trade up his sleeve to move up in the draft? Villanueva and the #8 pick for ….. what?

I’ve never been the biggest Richard Jefferson fan, as I’ve always felt he was a little overrated and benefited greatly from playing with Jason Kidd. But even if he falls off by 10% as a member of the Bucks then he’s still better than Yi — and light years better than Bobby Simmons. The Bucks actually take on salary in the trade, as Jefferson is owed $15 million in 2010/11 on a contract that is one year longer than Simmons’.

In my combined offensive/defensive IPM rankings, Jefferson looks like an okay offensive player and a pretty lousy defender. Whether that’s true or not, I don’t quite know, but the Nets were a much better team with Jefferson on the court than not, being out scored by 5 pp/48 with him on the floor and 7.5 with him off, according to 82games.com. Jefferson has an injury-prone reputation, but that’s not true — he has had two major injuries (a broken hand and something else I can’t remember) but in his five other seasons has played at least 78 games. He averaged almost 40 mpg last season.

So long, Simmons, we hardly knew ya.

But the big part of the story is that the Yi phenomenon has petered out, and that’s probably a good thing for Milwaukee. There wasn’t much he did in his rookie season to suggest that he is going to become a great player, as you can’t really expect his ability to get his shot off in traffic to improve much. It’s too bad. Drafting him was probably a good gamble. But I think we saw enough of Yi on the court to know he wasn’t really worth all the hype. When your most devastating skill is a beautiful 22-foot jumper your ceiling is always going to be limited because any defense will let you shoot that shot all night — because you wont make more than 45% of them, even if you are the best shooter in the world. Yi needs more post moves, he needs more quickness, and he needs to hold on to the ball better. Maybe that will come in time, but I think we saw enough to know that the best he will ever become is “okay”.

So who wants Villanueva and the #8? How about Memphis for the #5?

Don’t annoint John Hammond as a hero GM just yet — he may have just added an average player with a brutal cap-killer contract. But he addressed a team weakness, and if this move frees him up to make a big splash with another move, then today might wind up being a great day to be a Bucks fan.

ESPN.com’s Chad Ford is reporting that the Golden State Warriors are trying to get the Bucks to part with Yi Jianlian, and he suggests that a proposed trade might have Brandan Wright and the #14 pick heading to Milwaukee. Apparently, the Warriors made the Jason Richardson-Brandan Wright trade in the first place because they wanted Yi and thought he would still be there at #8.

Note that Ford doesn’t say that is a proposed trade so this is all 1000% speculation, but if G-State was to make an offer, that is pretty much what it would have to be. Technically the Warriors only have five guys under contract right now (not counting Baron Davis who is unlikely to opt out of his contract, and they also hold an option on Andris Biedrins) so Yi-for-Wright is about the only logical trade.

If this trade is offered, from the perspective of wanting a better basketball team in Milwaukee, do I take it? Absolutely yes.

From the perspective of wanting the Bucks to be in Milwaukee a few years from now, do I take it? No way. Not for at least another year.

I’ve pretty much soured on Yi as a player. I’m convinced that he’s at least 24 years old, so he’s not going to get much better. His rebounding ability — while actually better than I feared — doesn’t really scare anyone. He couldn’t guard physical power forwards, leaving that job to Bogut. He couldn’t get his shot off in traffic. He’s got that beautiful jumper, but any defense will let the best shooter in the world take all the 20 footers he wants because he still won’t make more than 45% of them. And forget about Yi eventually becoming a 3-point threat, he shot about 20% from the shorter international 3-point line his last year in China. Also, forget about moving him to small forward — when I think about how players will fare as NBA small forwards I picture them trying to guard LeBron James. Would they just get made to look bad or would they get comically embarrassed? Just think about Yi guarding James for a second.

Meanwhile, Brandan Wright didn’t play very much last season, and as a thin seven-footer with a “toughness” question mark he brings many of the same issues as Yi but without the deadly jumper. However, he posted a better IPM and Defensive IPM than Yi while playing for a team that was fighting for the playoffs all 82 games. Plus there is no doubt about Wright’s age — he’s 21. Wright might be a better player now and is almost certain to be better a few years from now. Not to mention, this draft is pretty deep and having two top-14 picks would be a nice coup.

But then there’s the money question.

After seeing what is going on with the whole Seattle-Oklahoma City debacle, I really worry about the long term viability of the Bucks in Milwaukee. Obviously David Stern doesn’t care about teams moving on their owners’ whim. But instead he looks the other way while the Grizzlies head off to flounder in Memphis, the Bobcats bomb so badly in Charlotte that the owner calls the local newspaper to bitch about local corporations not buying enough boxes, and the Hornets’ move to New Orleans was such a disaster that George Shinn forced the city into a lease that has an attendance-based escape clause two years in. You’d think that since the league hasn’t had a successful move or expansion in a decade Stern would want his teams to stay put, but instead he has been a steady proponent of the Sonics move, despite the fact that it has become crystal clear that the Clay Bennett-faction was negotiating in bad faith (I don’t know if Bennett’s actions make me proud or disgusted to be a CHK shareholder. I guess proud, since I started buying the stock at $3).

In a very insightful post at BlogMaverick, Mark Cuban wrote about why the NFL owners would have opted out of their collective bargaining agreement (he “no longer writes about the business of the NBA” on the blog, but it is easy to see the parallels in his post). His thesis was that the economics of the salary cap — where a huge chunk of revenue comes from the national TV deal, but the big-market teams have an unfair advantage in pursuing local revenue — are squeezing the small market teams to the point where they can no longer compete. Basically, the big market teams can sign lucrative local TV deals, start their own reigonal sports network and — most importantly — finance ridiculous new stadiums. Cuban is talking about the Cowboys’ and Giants/Jets’ new stadium in particular, but it’s pretty clear that the $500 million the Nets have raised for their Brooklyn stadium plays a part in his thinking too.

What happens is that the salary cap keeps going up because these big market teams can expand their local revenues so much that they significantly raise the leagues’ average revenues without the small market teams actually seeing any of that gain. Then the salary cap goes up, and since the cap is supposedly in place to make the small-market teams competetive, they are forced to keep spending up to the cap despite the fact that their costs are going up faster than their revenues. If they didn’t fill their cap then the fans and media would call the owners cheap and attendance would drop.

It all means that eventually the salary cap grows to the point that the small-market teams cannot realistically pay their salaries without running a deficit. Which means there can only be two types of small-market owners — those like Herb Kohl (who have seen their initial investment in the team grow so much that they don’t mind running an annual deficit) and those like Clay Bennett (who know darn well they are going to lose money, but want to own a team simply so they can say they brought professional sports to their backyard).

The problem, as I see it, is that no matter how hard Herb Kohl looks, he might not be able to find another buyer who isn’t like Clay Bennett. And David Stern — who was just recently putting Milwaukee on notice that we had better pony up for a new stadium within five years, or else — has made it clear that he is fine with that.

Which gets us back to the idea of trading Yi. Basically, as the league is currently structured, in order for Kohl to be able to retire and sell the team without all of us sweating them moving they will have to make more money. It will be much easier if this team has positive cash flows. It will be infinitely easier if the brand name Milwaukee Bucks has some international cachet.

I don’t have any insight into the teams’ finances, but I can’t imagine they are making money. I have very good seats at the BC and I don’t pay anywhere close to face value — it would cost me over three times what I pay to get the same seats at the United Center. I have Brewers tickets too, and let me tell you — dealing with the Bucks and Brewers’ reps is like night and day. The Bucks ticket office will bend over backwards to help you out, while the Brewers guys will kind of shrug their shoulders and tell you whether or not what you want to do works for them. It really seems like the Bucks need my money much more than the Brewers do.

Just doing the math, it doesn’t add up. The Bucks make around $30 mil/year from the national media deal. They drew about 600,000 fans last season, and if their profit is $30/ticket, then that is an additional $19 million. That covers their two major sources of revenue, but they paid $62 million in salaries last season. According to Herb Kohl’s personal financial statements, the Bucks’ gross revenue was $79.5 mil. Is that enough to get into the black for the season? Maybe, but it’s close. These numbers don’t take into account any expenses, and that is after Yi arrived this season.

Maybe they could make money — but only because of Yi. Kohl has said that they have taken operating losses in the past few years, and no matter what there is no way the Bucks made more than a couple of million last season.

The Chinese-language advertising makes a difference. Over time, selling a million officially-licensed Bucks jerseys in China might bring back $10 million in royalties (of course, they won’t get paid for probably fifty million unlicensed ones). At the very least, Yi’s effect on the bottom line helps close the revenue gap that simply must exist for the Bucks. The team has to milk that for all it is worth, and if it means passing on a decent prospect and a mid draft pick, that’s fine. John Hammond has to be creative to fix this team, and if keeping Yi is part of the package, then so be it. Just find another way.

But there is one caveat about this — the Chinese aren’t stupid. If Yi doesn’t turn into a good player soon then any interest in him is going to disappear as quickly as it started. His fans don’t want to cheer for him simply because he is in the NBA — they want to cheer for him because he is good. If Yi doesn’t pan out in the next year or two — and maybe even simply if he looks lousy at the Olympics this summer — then his fans are going to be gone, on to the next big-time prospect. There’s always going to be someone else to root for.

Hideki Matsui may still have 50 Japanese journalists following him everywhere he goes, but don’t forget that Kaz Matsui came to New York with almost the same amount of hype. And once Kaz didn’t become a star, he was forgotten.

So my guess is that the whole “Yi as a marketing tool” thing has one more year left unless he really busts out this season. I want to keep him around until the money well runs dry.

The Bucks need him too much to trade him now. As Bucks fans, we need him here for the financial health of the franchise. Hopefully he can hold up his end of the bargain on the court.

Continuing my season review, today I am concentrating on the three mid-priced players that were complete enigmas for the Bucks this season.

Charlie Villanueva ($2.71M, 0.766 IPM): The deck was clearly stacked against Charlie V from the get-go this season. Coach Krystkowiak was telling the media that energy in practice and defensive intensity would determine playing time, but everybody knew that Yi had already been promised the starting power forward position. So even though there was nothing that Charlie V could do to get more playing time (especially since it would take Krystkowiak 60 games to try playing V and Yi together), Krystkowiak’s early position made it look like Villanueva was simply too lazy to earn court time.

On the court, Villanueva make an admirable recovery from last seasons’ shoulder injury to at least regain the form of his first two seasons, but he hasn’t really improved upon his rookie season at all. His game has stayed the same , he shoots too much from outside, rebounds pretty well (nine double-doubles in 31 starts), passes well for a big man, turns it over too much, doesn’t quite get as many blocks and steals as you would like, and is easily overpowered on defense.

Villanueva is wildly inconsistent on the court, simply not showing up every night. Just recently, he followed up a 2 point, 4 board, 1-6 shooting night against Boston with 38 points and 12 boards the next night against Toronto. It’s incredible how often he has a great game followed by a complete head-scratcher.

Often people look at that sort of inconsistency and thing; “Just wait until he figures it all out!” I look at it differently , Charlie Villanueva is the 6′11″ version of Jamal Crawford: Half the time he’s awesome, half the time he’s awful and it all averages out to a completely average player. Guys like that don’t change , you don’t just suddenly become “consistent”.

Fortunately Villanueva has the tantalizing talent, relatively low paycheck and track record as former ROY-runner up to make him a reasonable bargaining chip in an offseason trade. It’s very difficult to win with a player like him, as he is such a unique athlete that he creates matchup problems wherever he plays , for both the opponents and his own team , and you never know if All-Star Charlie or Putrid Charlie will show up on any given night.

Villanueva was misused this season by Krystkowiak. He’s much better than a 15-minute bench guy as he was treated early in the season, but he’s not a dependable 35-minute workhorse either. Winning with a guy like Villanueva on your team requires the coach to have a lot of imagination about how to use him, willingness to yank him when he’s doing poorly, and probably a double-standard regarding his practice habits because you need his head in the game. Krystkowiak failed on all counts regarding Charlie V.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 10%

Yi Jianlian ($2.77M, 0.618 IPM): Hope for the best, fear the worst. After a season where Yi’s play got worse and worse and excuses started to mount around him, I worry.

The most enduring image of Yi’s rookie season, besides his picture-perfect jump shot, will have to be that of him flailing his arms after getting his shot blocked. According to 82games.com, he finished the season having 36% of his “in close” shots blocked, and only made 31% of those tries. As the season went on, this inability to convert clearly started to wear on Yi, as he began barking at the officials after every time he got stripped. He simply had a horrible time adjusting to the physicality and athleticism of NBA big men. Despite being a pretty legitimate 250 pounds and having a decent vertical, he is just awful at taking contact.

There’s really no reason to believe that he’s 20 years old any more as baseball’s experience has pretty much proven that once a player is rumored to be older than his listed age then he most likely is. So since we have to assume that he’s more like 24 years old then we have to assume that he’s pretty much not going to change all that much as a player , he’s not going to develop a crossover dribble or gain 30 pounds of muscle. As for the rumors that he has three point range and can do a 360 dunk , well, he shot about 20% from the international 3-point line his last year in China, and I remember hearing rumors when Eddy Curry was in High School that he could do a backflip. I’d pay $100 to see Curry try that now. Just because something is rumored only means it’s a rumor.

So just how good is Yi? Well, in his best month this season he averaged 12 ppg and 6.6 rpg. I think he can beat that for a full season, but I don’t think he will ever play physically enough to be a 20 ppg scorer. However, this could change if the next coach simply does a better job of getting him the ball. It seems that the Bucks should have been running a pick-and-pop play 25 times a game for Yi, but that never seemed to happen. In fact, it seemed to me that Yi rarely even got the ball in the post when he would call for it , almost as though his teammates were freezing him out. Strange.

Young superstars may take some time to blossom, but you almost always get a glimpse at their talent by then end of their rookie season. You can’t say that about Yi , it seems more like he’s got an air of “okay player when things go right” about him instead of “All-Star”.

There is also the issue of the amount of rest he will get in the summer , while much was made over him being tired after playing all of last summer, he will play in the Olympics this summer, the Asian games the year after than and the World Championship after that. Adding to the problem is that Yi’s Chinese handlers see his NBA experience as training for his summer international competition, so it’s not like they will take it easy on him in the summer.

I guess I’ve done a pretty good job of making it sound like Yi was a really bad pick, but that’s not true. For how incredibly deep the 2007 draft was supposed to be, it now appears that there weren’t that many great players available after the top 3. It looks like the only players taken after Yi who the Bucks may one day regret passing on could be Thaddeus Young and Brandan Wright, and even at his advanced age Yi still has about as much upside as them.

Of course, there are also the financial implications of Yi’s presence to consider. Yi caused the Bucks to play several games that were viewed by as many as 1 billion people worldwide this season, and was also the reason for the sale of several prominent ads at the Bradley Center. The money that cam from Yi this season is probably the difference between the Bucks making a losing money this year , and probably the reason that Herb Kohl was willing to spend enough to hire John Hammond away from Detroit and to apparently have a blank check available for the next coach.

However, it’s an open question as to how long the Yi cash flow will continue. He has to be good for anyone back home to care about him much longer. While Hideki Matsui and Ichiro are still superstars in Japan and have dozens of Japanese media still following them, it is long forgotten that Kaz Matsui arrived in New York with similar hype. While there is no way to conceive of potentially trading Yi because of the money he brings in, if he doesn’t start bringing it on the court next season then that cash flow will dry up quickly. One interesting note is that earlier in the season several of my posts about Yi were translated into Chinese and posted on a major message board there. That all stopped around mid-January, so after his struggles maybe the interest in him in China is already starting to wane.

In the end, it was a very disappointing season for Yi as he hit the wall in January and his play got worse and worse from there. After how his season ended with such a whimper it’s hard to even remember that he was a solid enough contributor early in the season. It’s a shame for Larry Krystkowiak that he was essentially forced to give Yi the starting job (compromising his whole “earn playing time through practice” message in the process) only to find Yi unable to carry the load.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 15%

Jake “Invisible Man” Voskuhl ($3M, 0.587 IPM): What a strange season for Voskuhl. He took over as the backup center early on (after Dan Gadzuric got benched and Michael Ruffin got hurt) and played pretty well, posting a 0.69 IPM as of January 6. Suddenly he stopped playing, and when he did play he was awful.

He never went on the injured list but must have been hurt, as he started getting DNP’s even in blowouts. It’s too bad, since once Yi started struggling, Voskuhl was their best offensive big man on the bench. He always dressed for the games, but rarely saw action beyond running onto the court at timeouts telling his teammates to keep their heads up after allowing yet another 12-0 run.

His $3 million expiring contract means that we wont be seeing him in a Bucks uniform again, which is too bad because it means he wont be around for anyone to ask him where he went for the second half of the season.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Up next: the Aussie and the Flintstone

With the news that Yi Jianlian’s season is over due to a sprained knee (fortunately, nothing so serious as to put his Summer Olympics plans in jeopardy) it is time to ask the question: Do we know any more about the guy than we did in October?

I’m not so sure we do.

After a pretty encouraging start to the season, Yi’s game fell apart in a very disturbing way after the New Year. He finishes the season with a 0.610 IPM, good for #272 in the league and #108 among forwards. Most disturbingly, he only ranked as the eighth best Milwaukee Buck, right there with Michael Ruffin.

First the good: at the outset of the season, Yi appeared to be a much better rebounder and shot-blocker than expected. His jump shot seemed to legitimize the “Dirk Nowitzki clone” comparisons.

But then we saw Yi try to finish inside. He got his shots blocked again and again … and again. According to 82games.com, Yi finishes his rookie year having gotten 36% of his “in close” shot attempts, and 11% of his dunk attempts, stuffed. His shooting percentage from “in close” was 31% (compared to 47% for Villanueva and 52% for Bogut). He is simply awful at finishing or drawing fouls.

The excuse of Yi hitting the “rookie wall” and getting tired doesn’t really carry much weight with me. It is true that Yi played a lot of ball last summer and never got a rest, but that is a fact of life for international players. Yi, much like Yao Ming, is never going to get a summer off. After the 2008 Olympics, next summer he will play in the 2009 East Asian Games, and following that the 2010 FIBA World Championship. I just hope that this “Yi is tired” excuse doesn’t pop up every season. Summer ball is a fact of life for him and he has to be able to handle it.

Most great players show glimpses of their impending stardom by the end of their rookie season — and we didn’t see that from Yi. Even when he was playing well early in the season he seemed more like a solid player with a good all-around game. But other than the form on his jump shot, there wasn’t much “greatness”.

Thin, athletic seven-footers like him are tough to figure out. Does he have the post game to play center? Is he strong enough to play power forward? Is he quick enough to defend small forwards? Does he handle the ball well enough to play the 3? Even a season in, not so sure about the answer to any of those questions — the answer might prove to be “yes” — or “no” — to all of them!

But honestly, he strikes me as someone who might be best suited as a fantastic sixth man, considering his ability to play multiple positions and create mismatches. But I think I might want a more physical power forward as my starter.

As an average rebounder and with an offensive game that seems restricted to 14-20 feet from the basket, he has a long way to go to become a valuable starter on a good team.

Well the potential for the windfall profits from Yi Jianlian’s successes are highly documented, what effect has he had so far?

We’ve heard stories about the millions upon millions of viewers watching Bucks games in China. What kind of influence has it had locally?

At a recent game I took photos of the Chinese influence on advertising in the Bradley Center. The side of the court that is displayed during televised games (on the table with the announcers and rotating ads) is definitely targeting a much broader audience than the Bucks fan actually inside the Bradley Center.

Most of these are simply rewritten ads to include Mandarin, has their been an increase in advertisers or simply an increase in audience? Peak answered that question when they started advertising all over the Bradley Center this year after announcing a deal with the NBA and hiring Shane Battier as their spokesperson.

Peak ad

Briggs and Stratton ad

Kohler ad

There was a Rockwell Automation ad that I didn’t get a picture of, thankfully the Journal Sentinel did. They also indicated that for a minute of cumulative display time advertisers can expect to pay into six-figures.

According to the New York Daily News, the Bucks (and the Knicks) have been pursuing Indiana Pacers CEO Donnie Walsh to join the front office next season.

This would be a good hire, as Walsh was the architect of the Pacers’ run of success dating back to the early 90’s, but considering that there are other teams in the mix and that he is 67 years old, I’d guess that his actually coming to Milwaukee would be a long shot. The more important story is that it signals the end for Larry Harris.

Reading between the lines, it has been pretty obvious that Harris was about done. Their failure to make any moves, the rumors about the ridiculous Zach Randolph, and Kohl’s silence about extending Harris’ contract were signals, but if they are now actively pursuing a replacement, it’s a done deal. And it’s time, too. Harris assembled this team and now it needs changes. Those changes are tough to make if you are emotionally invested in bringing the current pieces in.

I know that money talks and the Knicks can offer far more money than the Bucks can, but honestly Milwaukee would probably be a more appealing destination for Walsh.

Consider the pros and cons:

Knicks

Significantly higher salary.
Seemlingly unlimited roster budget.
Money no object for hiring coaches and assistants.
Ridiculous roster makes it impossible to make major changes until 2009/10.
Roster contains three players who would have any trade value (Lee, Balkman, Robinson).
Walsh is from New York.
Owes a future first round pick to Utah.
Horrible, insular working nvironment and culture at Madison Square Garden.
Owner is completely insane.
Highest paid player is completely insane.

Bucks:

Limited cap manuverability until 2010.
Five potential trade chips in case of a major overhaul (Redd, Williams, Bogut, Yi, Villanueva).
Location is closer to Indianapolis-based family.
Payroll limited to below luxury tax.

Money aside, the Bucks job is far more appealing. Would you honestly want to work for James Dolan? Would you really want to take on a complete organizational housecleaning at 67 years old? Wouldn’t you rather have the Bucks’ relatively inexpensive core to work with over the Knicks’ completely disjointed one?

Anyway, I’m sure that the Knicks checkbook will carry the day in this battle, while the Pacers’ current VP of Basketball Operations, David Morway, might be the Bucks’ consolation prize as their next GM.

Meanwhile, I attended my first Bucks game in a couple of weeks last night against the Heat, and I came away thoroughly perplexed.

It cannot be overstated just how bad the Heat are right now. They dressed nine players. They are missing their three best projected opening night starters (Wade and Haslem out, Shaq gone). Marion was a nonfactor, playing 28 minutes and with the Bucks outscoring the Heat by 10 with him in. They were so starved for wins that their bench was acting like it was game seven of the finals. Jason Williams actually looked interested!

Clearly the Bucks should have won this game going away, but that isn’t the only thing that has me confused. The season is now lost, so at this point shouldn’t learning a little about your team be a goal, instead of tossing out the same old lineups that haven’t worked all season?

Instead, after the game, Krystkowiak talked to the Journal Sentinel and vaguely blamed his players.

“We’ve talked about just about everything,” (Krystkowiak) said. “I’m not afraid to repeat some stuff but it’s frustrating. We need to be self-starters. We’ll look at the plan . . . what broke down as far as the tactical approach. . . . We’ll see as coaches if we can fix that and not put ourselves in the (same) position.

“Players have to take more responsibility. We all have to. Everybody has to step up a little bit here. It’s not a time for speeches and a lot of talk. It’s getting out and playing.”

I don’t really understand what Krystkowiak is trying to say here. I guess he’s decided that his players aren’t doing what he wants them to for whatever reason. But who is that really an indictment of? Doesn’t that reflect back on him?

I think that this was a veiled shot at Mo Williams’ defense, specifically his complete inability to get through picks and keep Jason Williams from getting open 3 after open 3. It got so bad that eventually Krystkowiak switched Mason onto Jason Williams (which didn’t stop Chris Quinn from getting 3 open 3’s himself in the 4th quarter).

But my real problem with Krystkowiak in this game was my usual complaint about him — lack of imagination. It’s time to realize that some new lineups — for a few minutes at a time — are necessary. Just a couple of adjustments might have given a little insight into the team, and maybe even saved the game.

Two examples:

When the Bucks were cruising along with a 13 point lead in the 3rd quarter I turned to my friend and said, “Now’s the time to bring in Yi for Mason.” Yi looks awful right now, and seems to be moving at half speed, but he did an okay job against Marion in the first half and that would have moved Villanueva to the 3. This was a perfect situation to try a big lineup out. How would Villanueva have looked matched up with Ricky Davis? What would Pat Riley have done? If it doesn’t work and Miami runs off a quick 6-0 run, then take Yi out.

In the fourth quarter, when the Bucks were in the process of blowing the game but hadn’t quite lost the lead yet, Krystkowiak gave Mo a rest and trotted out a lineup of Ivey-Bell-Mason-Yi-Ruffin. How, exactly, is that supposed to work? Who is supposed to score? With Yi in such a funk, not one of those players is remotely capable of creating a shot. Not surprisingly, that lineup was on the floor while Miami would take their eventual lead. Why not use Sessions in that situation? You would get a real point guard in there, someone who is bigger who might be able to defend a pick-and-roll a little better, and he would be matched up against a relatively poor defender (either Jason Williams or Chris Quinn). Don’t you want to see what you have in Sessions, even if it’s only for a couple of minutes at a time?

Either way, it is clear: from his actions during the game and his comments after it, Krystkowiak is missing the point: winning is still the goal, but the time has come to accept that what you have done to this point hasn’t worked. It’s time to think up some new options with an eye toward the future. If you are going to lose to Miami anyway, it’s pointless to lose to them by doing the exact same things that have carried you to 43 other losses this season.

Now that the Bucks have run off a 3-1 stretch against playoff teams, capped by the spectacular ending to the Cleveland game, you have to wonder — has this team actually underachieved all year? Should this team actually be closer to 35 wins right now than 25?

Well, that’s pushing it — they are getting kind of lucky.

Going back to the New Orleans game before the all-star break, the Bucks have caught some favors from the schedule makers. The Hornets, Pistons and Nuggets were all coming into the Bradley Center in the second games of back-to-backs, while the Cavaliers were using only one player (LeBron James) who had been a starter for them just one week prior. With Ilgauskas out sick and Daniel Gibson injured, the rest of their starting lineup was made up of two new players (Ben Wallace and Delonte West) and two bench players (Anderson Varejao and Devin Brown — although Brown was quickly replaced with Wally Sczcerbiak). Lets just say that the Cavs weren’t very familiar with each other, kind of like a pickup team.

The good thing about this run is that they are now back on pace to grab a playoff spot, as I wrote earlier this month. After blowing two easy wins (Knicks and Clippers) I wrote them off for dead, but they have come back to win two games I had marked as losses and won one “toss up” game (five games which I felt they needed to go 3-2 in). Meanwhile Atlanta has slumped despite adding Mike Bibby and New Jersey and Chicago are struggling. The Bucks still have a shot at 34 wins, and that still might be good enough to get in.

If there is one huge compliment I can give Larry Krystkowiak it is this: after all the blowout losses early and after after the supposedly-contentious team meeting before the New Orleans game, this team has not given up.

But is Krystkowiak doing anything differently?

The first thing I thought is that Redd and Williams are getting more shots and the Bucks are playing at a faster pace. That’s not true at all. Redd and Williams may be getting a few more shots but they are playing more minutes as well — as a whole, the backcourt is still putting up about 40-45 shots per night. The Bucks haven’t picked up the pace, either. Their pace seems to be pretty consistently dictated by the team they play — not surprisingly the Denver game was the highest-paced Bucks game of the season, and the Cleveland and New Orleans games were relatively slow.

The biggest difference is that he seems to have said, “screw the front office, I’m not playing Yi any more.” It was as plain as day that Yi’s prolonged slump since New Years had been killing them, and the team is much better with Charlie Villanueva starting and paying attention for 35 mpg than floating through 20. I’m sure Yi isn’t complaining, either — with Yao out for the season and unlikely to be full strength for the Olympics, Yi will now be the centerpiece of Team China this summer. He’s going to have to work harder this summer than he ever would in the NBA — the rest of the Chinese National Team started practice for the Olympics a full three weeks ago. The only way Yi gets rest before next season is to get it now.

Krystkowiak has also decided to go for broke and bury his entire bench. This is an excellent move. There is plenty of statistical evidence to show that the Bucks’ bench has been the worst in the entire NBA this season, and remarkably as players like Bell, Ivey, Gadzuric and Simmons play less the Bucks record improves. Against Cleveland the entire bench played only 45 minutes and took three shots.

However, this no-bench strategy begs one question — how long can they go before exhaustion takes over and Redd or Williams’ shooting arm comes flying off? That’s why I’m still nervous about their playoff chances. Don’t get me wrong, I think that riding Redd, Williams and Bogut as far as they can take you is the right thing to do (since everyone else has proven that they can’t shoulder the load). But I don’t know how long you can go by playing Redd, Williams, Mason and Bogut between 37 and 47 minutes a night.

The bottom line, though, is I’d rather they lose by running and gunning with their best players on the floor, not by using “defenders” who can’t defend. And if they can keep shooting themselves into games and steal a few more wins this way, all the better.

With 29 games remaining, Bucks fans can pretty much forget about a playoff run, especially now that Atlanta has brought in a real point guard in Mike Bibby and it appears that the Jason Kidd trade has fallen apart for New Jersey. I suppose that it’s possible for this team to run off a long home winning streak (they do have 18 home games left), but to think that they can leap over four teams is a bit of a long shot.

So what else would I like to see over the rest of the season?

Choose an offensive identity and stick with it. All season long, I have expressed my frustration with Krystkowiak’s strategy of slowing the game down in an effort to improve the team’s defense. Of course, the net result is that the Bucks’ offense has gotten worse while their defense has stayed equally bad. There are indications that Krystkowiak now wants to open up the offense more, leading to more shots for Mo and Redd at the expense of Bogut. As far as I’m concerned, the faster a pace the Bucks play the better — if they are blessed with anything it is several high-percentage scorers, as their top five players all shoot better than 43.5% (and Redd is uncharacteristically low at that number). I’d much rather see this team trying to outscore teams rather than beat them with defense.

Rest Yi. Yi Jianlian has clearly hit the “rookie wall” and needs a break. The problem is that with Olympic duties looming this summer, Yi isn’t going to get much rest this summer. I wouldn’t mind if Yi comes up with a “sprained ankle” or “sprained shoulder” that keeps him out of a few games. Let him get some rest now, because the last thing we need to hear in training camp next season is how he’s tired from the summer.

Lots of playing time for Charlie Villanueva. Either at power forward or small forward, Villanueva needs to be in the starting lineup, playing big minutes, and showcasing himself for an offseason trade. Not counting the game in which he sprained his ankle, Charlie V averaged 17.6 points and 12 rebounds in his three starts. He is never going to start at power forward for this team (Yi is too important to the financial future of the franchise to ever be moved) so either we have to see if he can play small forward or move him. He’s about the most desirable trade chip this team has, so if he puts up big numbers in the final two months of the season he should garner some interest around the league.

Get Michael Redd some better shots. For any number of reasons, Redd has been suffering through a poor shooting season by his standards. To the casual observer it looks like he takes a ton of bad shots, but I think the problem is that he has been having trouble getting open. I believe that part of this is that he has been spending far to much time at small forward — where his size is negated by his lack of strength and quickness. But the rest of the offensive strategy has to bear some blame for not getting him open as well. You would think that the Bucks would run a steady diet of pick-and-rolls with Redd and Yi (only with Yi fading for a jumper than rolling to the basket).

But this brings me to something else I have noticed all season — is it possible that Redd is freezing out Yi? While Yi does not post up enough, I don’t think that I’ve seen Redd toss a post entry pass to Yi all year, and I’ve definitely seen Redd pass up on feeding Yi several times. I hate to think something like this about somebody like Redd, but could he be refusing to involve Yi because of jealousy over Yi’s profile in the recognition? Does Redd have a problem with not being the face of the franchise as he used to?

I’ve noticed this all season, but really started to wonder after the December 22 game against Charlotte, when Yi scored 29 points on 14-17 shooting. Yi had 25 after 3 quarters, and suddenly Redd started firing up shots from anywhere in the fourth, taking nine shots to Yi’s four. You could almost hear Redd saying, “No way this guy’s leading us in scoring tonight.” And while the Bucks led that game by 22 late in the third quarter, Redd’s decisions to pull the trigger early in the shot clock so many times contributed to the final victory margin only being four points.

It pains me to suggest this, but it does remind me of the 2002 Bulls when Jalen Rose openly refused to pass to Jay Williams. There’s absolutely no evidence to support what I’m saying, but it bears watching — I think that Redd’s next post entry pass to Yi will be his first.

Either extend Larry Harris’ contract — or don’t. For all of the complaints about how Harris has done as GM, the truth is that he has done about as well as he could in running a franchise that had been short-circuted by the mismanagement of Ernie Grunfeld (as he had traded away the Bucks’ 2004 first round pick in 2000 and had somehow managed to trade their 2003 pick along with Ray Allen for a two month rental of Gary Payton). Now Herb Kohl has a decision to make — either let Harris try to continue building the team, or to hand the reigns to someone else. My guess is that the answer will be someone else — and if the Bucks are silent on the trade front between now and the deadline, it will be a stong sign that Kohl has tied Harris’ hands and that he will be gone before the NBA draft.

Stop getting blown out by good teams! As the Dallas and New Orleans game showed, there was no reason for the incredible early-season run of 20+ point blowout losses to good teams. This is probably the single biggest indictment of Larry Krystkowiak’s coaching philosophy — good teams have chewed up his gameplans in minutes. This team may not be a championship contender, but it also has no business getting blown out at a pace similar to that of the worst teams in NBA history.

I don’t think it’s too much to ask for. I don’t want them to tank games for draft position (this years’ draft looks to be full of busts to me). I just want this team to play hard, not to quit on their coach, and to be competitive through the end of the year.