The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Now that this season is finally over, it is time to recap the contributions of each player. I’m not a big fan of giving letter grades, especially since when you consider that the Bucks’ record this season was actually worse than last years’ injury-marred one, everybody associated with this team pretty much deserves an “F-”. Except for my season ticket rep, Nick. He has been great this season, always accommodating and helpful.

So I’ve decided to grade each player on how responsible they were for Larry Krystkowiak getting fired.

I’m going to review each player over the course of the next several days in reverse order of their salary, and also am giving their final IPM (data for all players available here). As you may know, typically an IPM greater than 0.9 is borderline all-star level, over 0.8 is that of a solid starter, above 0.7 is a useful player, and below 0.6 means you were probably hurting the team more than helping it. Also, because it is a per-minute measurement, it becomes much more accurate the more minutes you play , so take Ramon Session’s ranking with a grain of salt. He’s not really the 33rd best player in the NBA.

Ramon Sessions ($427K, 0.931 IPM): Thank you Larry Harris for this wonderful parting gift. Sessions was the lone bright spot of the end of the season, as he provided a boost with his pass-first game and eye popping statistics, highlighted by 127 assists vs. only 36 turnovers. The knee-jerk reaction is to jettison Mo Williams and turn the point guard spot over to Sessions, but let’s not get too excited just yet.

The red flag about Sessions is that his impressive play ran counter to his career style. In college and the NBDL, Sessions was a ball-dominating scorer who was hard to keep off of the free throw line, but once coming to the NBA he concentrated on passing first and shooting second. The results, when accompanied by some less-than-intense defense on the part of the Bucks’ opponents, were some excellent box scores (45 points, 38 assists, 15 rebounds and 5 turnovers on 18-29 shooting in the final two games). One has to wonder what will happen next season when he plays against teams that actually want to play defense against him.

The only reason for the Bucks to go into next season with Sessions as the starter is if they win the draft lottery and take Derrick Rose, but Sessions will clearly be a valuable reserve next season. Just think , a bench player who can actually create an offensive set and draw a foul once in a while!

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

David Noel ($687K): Lost for the season to a shoulder injury, we will never get to see what Noel might have brought to the table this season. With the signing of Awvee Storey, Noel would most likely have been in the D-League or wearing a suit on the bench all season, anyway.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Awvee Storey ($770K, 0.647 IPM): I can only see one reason why Storey was given a guaranteed contract in the first place: because Storey’s agent Mark Bartlestein is Mo Williams’ agent as well, and by helping out another client Larry Harris was trying to enlist Bartelstein to persuade Mo to stay in Milwaukee rather than head for Miami. How’d that one work out, Larry?

After an embarrassing 2006-07 season which saw Storey kicked out of the D-League for putting a teammate into a coma (and then breaking an opposing players’ rib while boxing him out in a German League game) it was amazing that Storey simply wasn’t blackballed out of the league in the first place.

The signing sort of made some sense at the time , Storey was veteran insurance in case Bobby Simmons couldn’t go after missing the previous season and/or the Desmond Mason signing turned out to be a bust (which it would have been had Mason played as poorly as he did with the Hornets). But why, then, give Storey a guaranteed contract? By the time his deal would have to be picked up the Bucks would have known what they had in their top two small forwards. They could have then released Storey before his contract became guaranteed and had an open roster spot to audition young players who may have been worth a shot (such as Nick Fazekas, the Mavericks second round pick who became Sessions’ top running mate for the NBDL’s Tulsa 66ers. Fazekas was released by the Mavs, signed by the Clippers, and would put up a 0.88 IPM in 26 games for them). Oh yes, he was given a guaranteed contract because of his agent.

But it seems that Krystkowiak couldn’t stand Storey’s game anyway. After Desmond Mason got hurt and Simmons simply sucked, instead of inserting Storey into the rotation Coach K continued to trot out Charlie Bell and Michael Redd at the small forward position. Storey wound up only seeing action in 26 games, with 90% of that coming after the season was long lost.

Probably the most pathetic thing is that Storey finished the season with the Bucks’ 6th best IPM, behind only Sessions, Bogut, Williams, Redd and Villanueva. The guy doesn’t even belong in the league and he was their best per-minute bench player this season!

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Royal Ivey ($798K, 0.548 IPM): Iveys’ reputation as a great defender sure got him a lot of playing time this season, and what a waste that was. Ivey must have really shut down Dee Brown and Scoonie Penn in his Bucks tryout, because despite all evidence to the contrary, Coach K kept on using Ivey as his “defensive stopper.”

There were two problems with that strategy , even if Ivey’s defense was absolutely awesome, there was no way it would make up for his own putrid offense (he actually finished with the lowest IPM on the team). However, there is no evidence whatsoever that Ivey’s defense was any good, either. According to 82games.com, the production of the player that Ivey was guarding averaged out to double that of what Ivey produced himself.

I don’t understand how any team could expect to win more than about 26 games if they are giving Royal Ivey 20 minutes a night. Yet, Coach K kept going back to him, probably because his “energy in practice” and “defensive intensity” (meaning: he looks really disappointed in himself when he gets beat) were there.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 12%

Michael Ruffin ($1.0M, 0.610 IPM): I really liked the idea of signing Ruffin, because I felt that a team with so much offensive talent on it could use a defensive banger like him. Ruffin is the most inept offensive player in NBA history, but has carved out a nice niche for himself as a guy who comes in, throws his body around, gives some hard fouls, grabs some boards and stays out of the way of the talented players. He’s useful.

The Bucks even played a little better with him on the floor than off, being outscored by 8.4 points per game without him but only 2.2 ppg with him. Ruffin did his job. He won’t help you win, but he doesn’t help you lose, and he makes it all look pretty ugly.

Ruffin, however, was the centerpiece of the Play That Probably Sealed Larry Krystkowiak’s Fate As Bucks Coach. After blowing a 17 point third quarter lead to the New York Knicks, and with the Bucks trailing by one with three seconds remaining, Krystkowiak inexplicably left Ruffin in the game for the final play. Even Isiah Thomas realized this and started coaching long enough to tell the Knicks defense to leave Ruffin open in order to deny everyone else the ball. Ruffin was then left to miss a 6-foot finger roll at the buzzer.

Michael Ruffin has scored 4.2 points per 36 minutes in his nine year NBA career, and Larry Krystkowiak put him into a position to take the final shot in a game. And now Krystkowiak is looking for a new job. Need I say more?

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 3%

Next up: The mysteries known as Charlie V, Jake V, and Yi.

How in the world can you blow a 17 point lead with 14 minutes remaining?

First of all, I don’t care that Mo Williams was out. Everybody has to deal with losing starters, and the Knicks were also playing without Nate Robinson (as well as the addition-by-subtraction loss of Stephon Marbury).

Isiah Thomas even threw in the towel in the third quarter — after the Bucks extended their lead to 81-64, Thomas brought in Malik Rose and Renaldo Balkman, to go with David Lee, Jamal Crawford and Fred Jones, and didn’t make a single substitution for the rest of the game! He stopped coaching for 10 minutes (basically just telling his guys; “just do whatever you want and see what happens”), not calling a timeout until the Knicks had made a game of it at 93-86.

The “Wages of Wins” believers will try to say that David Lee was the reason the Knicks came back and won the game, but Lee didn’t really do anything out of the ordinary. His 8-12 shooting and 9 rebounds (4 offensive) looks great, but that’s just typical sneaky David Lee stuff — he shoots 55% anyway, so a 7-12 game would be average for him, and in his normal 32 minute outing he averages 10 boards (3 offensive). So he had a pretty typical game for hin — just your standard, underrated scrappy stuff that has carried the Knicks a 13-36 record against teams other than the Bucks this season.

Jamal Crawford was on fire, making all sorts of crazy stuff on his way to 30 points. That can happen with Crawford — he’s an average player overall but he either looks like a world-beater or the worst player in the league on any given night. The Knicks had good Jamal on Saturday, and their record is pretty respectable when he springs for 28+ points. This is a perfect example of how using a player “because he’s a good defender” is stupid. Crawford was making everything, and there really wasn’t much Ivey could do (within the rules, anyway) to stop him. Guys like Crawford will get hot sometimes and that’s life. So Ivey couldn’t do anything to stop Crawford early, and by shooting 2-9 and scoring 4 points, Ivey didn’t help out offensively as well. So Crawford isn’t really the reason the Knicks won the game — he helped, but even with him putting up big numbers this game was winnable.

No, it comes down to coaching. Larry Krystkowiak, I have a few questions for you. Specifically:

When you have a 17 point lead, why would you wait until the Knicks have run off 15 unanswered points before calling a timeout? I can see the logic that Krystkowiak wanted to let the quarter run out and then things got out of hand, but this is the second time this season that the Bucks have blown a big 3rd quarter lead to the Knicks. After they got two or three consecutive baskets, why would you not call timeout to break the Knicks’ rhythm and remind the guys that the Bucks have been in this situation against New York before?

How does Charlie Villanueva get one shot in the fourth quarter? He shot 10-22 for the game and didn’t see the ball in seven minutes of work in the fourth. He shot 6-12 and grabbed 6 rebounds in the third quarter. Is anyone calling plays here? Did anyone realize that the Knicks went small, were using a 6′7″ and 6′9″ frontcourt, and Isiah wasn’t bothering with substitutes?

How does Bogut get two shots in the fourth quarter? He made one and then got called for his sixth foul on the second. Once again, he was being guarded by 6′7 Malik Rose.

Why would you not go big with Gadzuric in the fourth quarter? Krytkowiak used Gadzuric at power forward a little against Dallas and it worked quite well. The Knicks were charging back into the game with their small lineup so why wouldn’t you try to force the Knicks out of it? Get Ivey out of the game, let Bell play point guard, and move Villanueva to small forward so that Redd will be guarded by Crawford instead of Balkman. Then Gadzuric’s athleticism can at least try to match Lee’s, Villanueva has a big height advantage over Balkman, and Redd gets to pick on the worst defender in the league.

Why in the world was Michael Ruffin in the game on the final posession? Michael Ruffin is the WORST OFFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA! In a nine year career he has averaged 4.2 points per 36 minutes. He is a nice enough player, and his strengths in other areas makes up for his lack of scoring. But you cannot have him in the game in a situation where you have to get a basket.

I’m no NBA coach, but I know for certain that if I was in Isiah Thomas’ shoes drawing up my defense for the final play I’m doubling Redd hard with Ruffin’s man (Lee or Rose) and hoping to force the ball into Ruffin or Ivey’s (2-9 shooting) hands. Wouldn’t you know that’s exactly what Isiah did — when the Bucks first ran their inbounds play, Redd was doubled as soon as he caught the inbounds pass and fouled (the Knicks had a foul to give). As Redd was fouled, he passed the ball to Ivey, who would have had an open 20-footer for the win (which would have been option #2 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Instead, the Knicks denied Redd the ball on the second try, leaving Bell with multiple defenders running at him and no choice but to dump it off to an open Ruffin (#1 on the list of “likely good outcomes for the Knicks”). Incredibly, the Knicks were able to double team two guys on the final play, because the Bucks were using two players (Ivey and Ruffin) that Isiah didn’t mind being open.

You needed a shot from a decent scorer. Why wasn’t Yi in for Ruffin? If it was me, I’d have had Simmons inbounding instead of Ivey, but that’s nitpicking — it’s not like Simmons was any good last night, either. But Michael Ruffin? Michael Ruffin. In a situation where he might take the last shot. Michael Ruffin. He’s 6′8. He’s taken 19 shots this season. When you have a 7-foot shooter on your bench. Really. Michael Ruffin.

Well, anyhow, another day another loss. This was on the list of “games the Bucks need to win if they are going to make the playoffs”, so one more bad loss and they need to start beating good teams to make up ground. The door is closing. If they lose Monday to the Clippers, then it will slam shut.

A few weeks ago I wrote a post about 14 potential trades the Bucks could do, but that most likely wouldn’t happen. I’m going to try that exercise again.

I figure that everybody is fair game except for Bogut, Williams and Yi. Williams, as a newly resigned free agent, is almost impossible to trade; as a somewhat productive, moderately paid big man Bogut would be impossible to replace; and Yi is too important to the health of the franchise to let go.

It has become much more difficult to figure out semi-reasonable trades, as Simmons and Gadzuric have played so poorly that I can’t imagine anyone taking on their contracts. There is one exception, though , a title contender might be willing to take on Gadzuric as “an energetic big guy to crash the boards and use his fouls” but that’s about it.

Additionally, salary cap rules make it well nigh impossible to trade Charlie Bell this season. As a newly resigned free agent, he (and Mo) falls under base year compensation (BYC) rules. Basically, should he get traded then his outgoing salary would only count for half of his actual salary. This was instituted to prevent teams from overpaying guys simply to fit them into trades. The thing that makes it so prohibitive, though, is that if the Bucks traded away Bell for a player who made between $1.55 mil and $2.03 mil (half of Bell’s $3.1 times 125%+$100,000) then Bell’s return $3.1 million salary would mean the other team is taking back too much money. Therefore Bell can only be traded to a team who is at least $1.07 million under the cap, and nobody is. One other caveat , in the first year of a BYC contract, the player can refuse to be included in any trade.

There are two loopholes in the BYC rules that would make it possible to trade Bell. One would be if a team has a trade exception (generated when they make a trade in which they take back less salary than they gave). However, I’m not sure who has them except for Phoenix, and as a luxury tax payee they did the Kurt Thomas deal in order to obtain the exception so that they can save the money. So I’m not considering exceptions in any proposals, which means that there may be some attractive potential deals out there that I wouldn’t figure out. The other loophole is that I believe that Bell could be traded for another BYC player who makes a similar amount of money as he does.

One other thing that makes this much more difficult , ESPN’s Trade Machine isn’t working correctly. Somehow it thinks the Bucks are under the cap, so it accepts nearly any moronic trade you stick in there. Simmons and Gadzuric for Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo? Sure! Want a side order of Paul Pierce with that? So I’m just going by my own math and understanding of the salary cap here , there is a chance that I might propose a trade that couldn’t actually work. Sorry.

And on to the ideas:

Dan Gadzuric to Boston for Brian Scalabrine and Scot Pollard: Scalabrine is one of the only players in the NBA who is significantly worse than Gadzuric. He can’t score, can’t rebound, can’t pass, doesn’t play good defense “¦ and yet he’s got 3 years/$10+ million left on his contract. Apparently he is a good teammate, though, and has a sort of cult “human victory cigar” following in Boston. Pollard has a one year contract and is a shade worse than Gadzuric in every area except for turnovers. The Bucks would save about $10 million and 1 year on this deal, and Gadzuric would be an occasionally useful 12th man for Boston. Is Boston willing to take on the extra salary in 2010 to make this trade happen? You never know when having Gadzuric to foul Duncan 5 times and grab a couple of boards in the finals might make the difference in a championship game. This is a fair trade. But Boston wouldn’t do it , there are a surprising number of “Scalabrine” jerseys walking around Beantown.

Royal Ivey to Cleveland for Shannon Brown: A sort of “why the heck not” proposal for both teams. The Cavs have soured on Brown, thinking they had drafted an eventual starter to run the floor with LeBron, but he’s turned out to be too small and not enough of a ball handler to start at either backcourt spot. Ivey’s defense would help them make a playoff run this season. With the Bucks, Brown might be able to back up both guard spots effectively in a sort of Charlie Bell role. Both contracts expire after this season, so it’s a low risk trade for both parties. Also one which wouldn’t have any effect on the W/L record.

Charlie Bell and Charlie Villanueva to Golden State for Mickael Pietrus, Patrick O’Bryant and a first round pick: The one trade that I can come up with that fits in with Bell , both he and Pietrus are BYC players so this trade would work. I can’t help but think that Villanueva would shine in Don Nelson’s system, and the only power forward he has is Al Harrington. While taking on a long contract like Bell would seem to be detrimental to them, it actually may not be because Monta Ellis is a free agent after this season and Baron Davis can opt-out. They could possibly lose one of those players (likely Ellis), and as Marco Belinelli hasn’t shown much, they might need Bell to come off the bench for the next few years. O’Bryant is a bust who is in the last year of his contract, but Pietrus would be an interesting addition to the Bucks. He’s going to be a free agent, so the Bucks would get Ruben Patterson-style maximum effort from him. He’d be an immediate starter for the next 6 weeks while Mason is out, and still would get almost 30 mpg backing up Mason and Redd the rest of the year. It’s a big improvement on the 19 mpg he’s currently getting and would allow him to showcase himself for his upcoming free agency. That’s an important incentive to get him in Milwaukee since both he and Bell would have to approve this trade. The Bucks would save a lot of money on this deal (or they resign Pietrus and hope that he fills the void at small forward) and clear a logjam at power forward, while the Warriors would get two useful players (provided they are confident that Bell will find his shot eventually).

Michael Redd and Michael Ruffin (or Jake Voskuhl) to Houston for Tracy McGrady: This one looks like the sort of deal that would be good for both teams but that neither one would actually do. Apparently McGrady has been making noise about not being happy in Houston (wow, when has he ever done that?). Rockets management might like the idea of trading him for a player who, while only being 80% the player McGrady is, at least isn’t perpetually questionable due to a trick back, and should be a much better running mate for Yao Ming. One has to worry about McGrady not wanting to be in Milwaukee and suddenly his back “acts up” almost every single night. When he’s on, though, he still can be one of the top 3 players in the game. Financially this would be a push for both teams, but the Bucks would save one year on McGrady’s contract. Neither team would do this because “¦. trades like this never happen. But it’s an interesting idea.

Charlie Villanueva and Dan Gadzuric to the Lakers for Kwame Brown: An outright salary dump by the Bucks as Brown’s contract expires this year, but Brown hasn’t offered anything to the Lakers in what has otherwise been an excellent season for them. I still think the idea of Odom and Villanueva on the same team is intriguing, and the growth of Andrew Bynum means they don’t lose much without Brown’s size. Much like the Boston proposal, Gadzuric could be a useful (albeit expensive) 12th man for a good team.

Charlie Villanueva to Memphis for Hakim Warrick and Kyle Lowry: As long as Memphis has Pau Gasol they will be searching for someone to play alongside him. A bruising big guy? A finesse power forward? We just don’t know any more! Meanwhile, Lowry doesn’t have a spot any more with the arrival of Mike Conley and Warrick has been squeezed down to 14 mpg. Another deal where the Bucks get two inexpensive players and have a couple of years to figure out exactly what they got, while Memphis tries the same with Charlie V. Lowry could probably be spun off in another deal for salary filler and a draft pick.

Charlie Villanueva and Royal Ivey to New Orleans for Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong: The Hornets bench has really, really really sucked this year (but not destroyed the rest of the team like it has for a certain other city) and recent stories in the New Orleans Times-Picayune say that they are desperately seeking backup help for Chris Paul and David West. Armstrong is awful but inexpensive and Wright has a lot of potential but hasn’t seen the floor behind Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson. If the Hornets are serious about making noise in the playoffs this season this is a good deal for them, while Wright will likely be the best player involved in this trade 3 years down the road.

Charlie Villanueva and Desmond Mason to New York for Quentin Richardson and David Lee: Even Isiah Thomas can’t be so stupid as to not realize what he has in Lee “¦ right? Lee is a rebounding, energy machine that is the sort of guy that keeps plays alive and doesn’t need the ball to succeed. He’s a winner on a team of losers. Should Yi be able to eventually move to small forward, Lee would be the perfect complement to Yi and Bogut. There are those who say he’s been the most underrated player in the game for a couple of years, but I don’t know how underrated you can be when you start for, are the leading scorer for, and MVP of the Rookie-Sophomore game at All-Star Weekend last season. Anyway, I include this proposal because “¦ well “¦ only Isiah Thomas might do it. Realistically, there’s no way it happens.

And there we go. Eight proposals, most of which are fairly realistic. It’s interesting how few decent bargaining chips the Bucks actually have, but it’s also interesting how difficult it is to figure out just who would help the Bucks. The Bucks need a small forward, that is clear. But all of their best bargaining chips have spent this season killing their trade value.

The chance that any of these trades will actually be consummated is approximately zero, but it’s an interesting exercise because it kind of highlights what the Bucks’ biggest problem is: it’s not the starters, it’s the bench. Specifically, the expensive members of the bench. Those guys simply don’t have much value.

I guess any NBA team would completely fall apart if they lose one key player (except San Antonio, apparently), and you would expect that to happen to the Bucks if they lost Redd or Bogut or Williams. But who would have guessed that Desmond Mason was the key to the whole house of cards?

I don’t blame Coach Krystkowiak for getting himself kicked out of the game against Chicago. The season is going down the tubes and it’s time for him to pull the “coach freak out” motivational ploy. He may have felt that the officiating had been bad in the 4th quarter, but I’m not so sure — in addition to the Ivey/Hinrich loose ball call (which the officials probably did blow), he was unhappy about a screen that Aaron Gray set on Ivey (which was hard but legal) and a call that went against Charlie Villanueva even though it appeared he was tripped by Nocioni (replays showed that Charlie V grabbed Nocioni’s jersey first). If Krystkowiak was going to flip out at the officials it should have come a couple of weeks ago in the 2OT loss to Cleveland, when the officials missed LeBron James stepping out of bounds twice at the end of the first overtime. But as a motivational ploy, it was necessary against Chicago.

However, this game was lost because of the rotations, not the officials. While I applaud Krystkowiak for getting away from the “two platoon” rotation strategy, he has not handled the loss of Mason properly.

I grant that he is pretty much being screwed over by Bobby Simmons, who has been absolutely useless. Obviously he can’t play more than 15 minutes, and even that leads you to hold your breath. Something is wrong with him, and it may have to do with the 3 game “personal leave” he took earlier in the month. He hasn’t been the same since, and one hopes it’s not because of a major or tragic personal issue.

I’ve written plenty that I can’t stand using Michael Redd at small forward, but in this situation it’s unavoidable at least a little. But his offense has fallen apart in the last 3 games, coinciding with the injury to Mason. Redd can’t handle the physicality of playing small forward, and doesn’t put enough defensive effort into it. So while 10 minutes a game at the “3″ is probably necessary right now, why not try to limit his time there?

Speaking of Redd, considering that Krystkowiak preaches that defensive effort determines playing time, at what point does spotlight start to shine on Redd? His defense may have cost the Bucks the game on Friday. After the controversial call that got Krystkowiak sent to the showers, the Bucks were only down two and forced a missed shot. But Luol Deng — Redd’s man — came in untouched and slammed home the rebound. How could Redd botch that play so badly? When the shot went up, Redd was standing 3 feet from the basket while Deng was 10 feet away on the baseline. Redd did not put any effort into boxing out, never turned toward Deng, and never even raised his hands above his waist to go after the rebound. He stood there like a spectator, watching his man flush the rebound home. All he had to do was look over his shoulder and box out 10 feet from the hoop and the result of that game might have been different.

Moving on about the rotations, how could Krystkowiak put a lineup on the floor of Williams/Ivey/Bell/Villanueva/Bogut and stick with it for 6 minutes in the 4th quarter? I know he clings to the idea that Bell can play defense, but how can you possibly compete with two total offensive non-factors on the floor? Are you trying to shut the Bulls out? Because that’s how good the D would have to be.

Bell cannot guard small forwards any better than Redd can. Bell gives up 6 inches and 25 pounds to Deng. What is he supposed to do? Meanwhile, Bell continues to seemingly go out of his way to shoot the Bucks out of games. He’s shot 4-28 (14%) in the last 6 games and yet has somehow played 132 minutes. And it’s not like he’s on a 6 game cold streak — he’s down to 28% shooting on the year. At least he hasn’t guarded anyone effectively either. What does this guy have to do to get benched? Check into a game without his shoes on? He should be spelling Williams for 8-10 minutes a night and that is it.

So what should the rotations be? Given that Simmons is only good for 15 a night and we want Redd at small forward for no more than 10, that leaves 23 minutes to be filled. You simply have to start putting Charlie Villanueva there and playing him alongside Yi.

Villanueva isn’t going to do any more damage defensively than Bell or Redd already have, and at least he’s got the length and strength to make opposing small forwards work to get the ball. That would have the added bonus of giving more court time to Yi, and also make room for a few minutes per game from Michael Ruffin (who is back and in uniform). Additionally, it would keep bigger, physical forwards off of Redd and allow him to get his offensive game back, which has really suffered from the pounding at the “3″. When was the last time he went 6-11 from the free throw line? It’s got to be partially attributed to him getting hit more often.

The Bucks can’t win without their best players on the floor and their five best players are Redd, Bogut, Williams, Yi and Villanueva. It’s that simple.

My suggested rotations:

Point guard: Williams (38 mpg), Bell (10)
Shooting guard: Redd (30), Ivey (18)
Small Forward: Simmons (15), Redd (10), Villanueva (23)
Power Forward: Yi (33), Villanueva (12), Ruffin/Gadzuric (3)
Center: Bogut (33), Voskuhl (12), Ruffin/Gadzuric (3)

I don’t see any other way. They can’t win with Bell playing a significant part of the backcourt or Redd being a big part of the frontcourt.

ESPN is reporting that Michael Ruffin will be out 4-6 weeks with a broken wrist, a casualty of Saturday night’s disasterous loss against San Antonio.

That’s too bad. Ruffin handled the last couple of games pretty well, playing fairly okay as the backup center against Yao Ming and chasing around Tim Duncan for a few minutes. He had vaulted Dan Gadzuric into the #2 center spot, who now gets another chance to prove that he actually has fingers on his hands instead of ten thumbs.

The injury also scotches my research into a later post about trade possibilities for Gadzuric. Oh well.

(This article refers to IPM, which is available here. IPM data for all NBA players and team power rankings are available in the file “2007-08 IPM Data Through Nov 12″)

Six games down, and how has this team done? Well, I guess that a 2-4 start isn’t all that surprising, considering the Bucks have had to play two of the best teams in the league and one other playoff team on the road. They did get two good wins at home, and were in their other game — Charlotte — until the end. By my calculations the Bucks have played like the 20th best team in the league so far, which is a little biased downward because of the difficulty of the schedule. There are some major problems here which need to be worked out, but I don’t see why this team could not reach the playoffs and a .500 record.

With back-to-back blowout losses (although the Houston game wasn’t really a blowout; that was close until the Bucks ran out of gas in the last 4 minutes) it may appear that this whole “committment to defense” thing is a total mirage, but the numbers say otherwise. Buoyed by the 72 points allowed to Chicago, I have the Bucks with the 17th best defense in the league thus far — a big improvement over last season. Clearly the addition of Mason, return of Simmons and assistance of Michael Ruffin have helped. However the offense has been a disaster, ranking 24th in the league. The arrival of Yi and the early heroics of Mason have been more than offset by the mistifyingly slow starts from Mo and Bogut, and a rash of turnover-itis that seems to have infected every single player.

Working my way through the roster (in order of salary, after Krystkowiak):

Larry Krystkowiak: There are several positives in the job Krystkowiak has done. His committment to Yi has paid off extremely well, and I think that most of the weaker player performances are not the coach’s responsibility. While his defensive schemes have not held up to better teams, part of that can be blamed on the pretty lousy job of team D that Yi has done so far as he tries to fit in. In the case of the San Antonio collapse, there was nothing the Bucks could have done — it seemed like after every single double team they would recover fast enough to force multiple passes around the perimeter until someone like Francisco Elson would bang in an 18-footer. What are you going to do?

I also like how Krystkowiak seems to be willing to cut his losses. After touting Gadzuric all training camp, he has already banished him to the end of the bench. Now if he would only give more time to Bobby Simmons.

However, on the offensive end, several important players seem pretty much lost, and it’s up to the coach to fix that. Krystowiak should take a stronger role in the offense, calling plays from the bench more often. Mo Williams has been completely out of sorts so far and would probably benefit from some structure for a while. After the Houston game, Tracy McGrady made an interesting comment about Yi, talking about how he needs to improve his basketball IQ: “If I was 7 feet tall and was being guarded by a 6′8″ guy (meaning himself), I’d take him into the post all night.” McGrady is correct, but only 6 games into his career it is not Yi’s place to start demanding the ball — it’s up to the coach to make sure he gets it.

Michael Redd (0.944 IPM, #37 overall, #21 guard): It’s very impressive that Redd’s overall numbers have stayed the same as last seasons’, because he has shot the ball very poorly (41%) thus far. However, his rebounding and assist numbers have been well above his career norms. This newfound well-roundedness have gotten him through this early shooting slump and has him on pace for another excellent season. As for his defense … well .. he’s still a great offensive player.

Bobby Simmons (0.554 IPM, #235 overall, #104 forward): After missing a whole season it is not that surprising that Simmons is off to a cold start. However, Desmond Mason’s IPM is only slightly better while Mason has been playing above his head, making the case that Simmons should be playing more now with an eye toward working back into game shape later in the season. Simmons has shot the ball well (48%), plays solid defense and has historically proven to be a much better rebounder than Mason, so he should very quickly surpass Mason’s production.

Mo Williams (0.717 IPM, #132 overall, #55 guard): Something has gone seriously wrong with Mo, and it’s one of three things: either his shoulder is more messed up than anyone is letting on, he is having a hard time living up to his contract, or he is being poorly coached. I’m going with the second option. Mo never has drawn enough fouls, but he somehow made it to the 6th game of the season without attempting a single free throw. He drives plenty often, so the only way for him to do that is to do nothing but kick the ball out. He has even regressed to the point of pulling the TJ Ford special — driving the lane, getting under the basket with no idea what to do, dribbling to the baseline and turning away and pulling the ball out. He is being completely indecisive with the ball, and it is severely hurting the team.

It appears that the problem — and I think this stems from feeling like he has to change his game to live up to his contract — is that he is deciding what to do at the beginning of each posession. He either looks to shoot (50% of his shots have come in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock) or drive and dish, instead of letting the game come to him. Either he’s changing his game or he’s being told to change his game, and it’s not working.

Lost in all this is the fact that he has actually shot the ball exceptionally well, hitting 48% of his shots while taking almost no layups. His assist ratio is also close to what it was last season, so it’s not like he has totally fallen off, he’s just not quite clicking.

It’s up to Krystkowiak to straighten him out, and that may be a challenge.

Desmond Mason (0.625 IPM, #193 overall, #87 forward): Mason has overachieved in just about every way at the start of this season, so I wouldn’t expect this performance to continue. He has shot 58% thus far and is turning the ball over at about 1/3 the rate he did the previous 4 seasons.

His high shooting percentage is directly attributable to his 10-10 game against Toronto, and he hit a bunch of lucky shots that night. I’m talking about the 6 foot, baseline, corkscrew jump hooks that never go in. So he’s been playing way above his head, and I’m sure his shooting and turnover rate will come back to earth soon.

Dan Gadzuric (0.519 IPM, #257 overall, #40 center): It’s hard to believe, but Danny G has actually started this season significantly worse than he played last year. His stone-hands problem has gotten worse as his shooting percentage continues to slide and he commits fouls and turns the ball over at a simply dizzying pace.

He is averaging 5.5 turnovers per 40 minutes, but we’ll never see that happen in a game becauses he would never stick around that long — he also averages 9.5 fouls per 40. Maybe he plays good defense but he simply can’t see the floor any longer because with him in the game the Bucks never have the ball because he turns it over on seemingly every single touch.

Two words: trade bait.

Andrew Bogut (0.732 IPM, #121 overall, #18 center): Bogut has gotten a lot of heat for his slow start, but there are several mitigating circumstances around his performance. He has shot the ball very poorly — all the way down to 40% — , but his preseason sprained left wrist may be affecting his shot, as it takes away his best weapon, the running lefty hook. The Bucks schedule hasn’t done him any favors, either, as he has already had to face three of the best big men in the NBA — Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, and Tim Duncan — plus a rebounding machine in Emeka Okafor. And it’s not like Bogut has it easy in these matchups — he doesn’t have any teammates who offer much in the way of physical help, and his backup has already played his way out of the lineup.

Lost in all of the shooting struggles is the fact that Bogut has rebounded the ball extremely well. He has improved from the 70th best rebounder in the game to 33rd (in pace adjusted rebounds per minute) and is now averaging 12.5 per 40 minutes. That is a pretty impressive number considering the players he has had to face this season and the lack of help he gets underneath the boards.

The thing that bothers me the most about Bogut, though, is his body language. He constantly has an expression on his face that looks like the guy in a pickup game who, about 4 posessions into a game, decides he wants different teammates. I’ve seen Bogut arguing with his teammates on the floor several times, and I’m thinking that maybe he worries about their screwups so much that he puts too much pressure on his own game.

Maybe what Bogut needs most of all is simply to lighten up a little.

Charlie Bell (0.640 IPM, #185 overall, #76 guard): I’m satisfied that Bell is playing hard. He has shot the ball horriffically (32%) but has raised his rebounding and passing numbers well enough to make up for it. He’s going to shoot much better as the season goes along and will be fine.

Yi Jianlian (0.780 IPM, #100 overall, #44 forward): First the bad: Yi has had some trouble with team defense, getting lost on switches sometimes and he has turned the ball over too much. That’s it.

Yi has been very impressive, outperforming all rookies thus far (even Kevin Durant, who has an IPM of 0.728). I have been very pleasantly surprised with how well he has rebounded the ball, averaging 8.2 per 40 minutes. His shooting has been excellent, and he has even showed a little ability to put the ball on the floor (taking Chris Bosh to the rack from 15 feet once). Athletically he has done well, averaging two blocks and a steal. It’s a little early to predict superstardom, but all he needs to easily average 20 ppg is to be a little more assertive and start demanding the ball.

It’s early in the season, but not to early to see that he was a great draft pick.

Charlie Villanueva (0.545 IPM, #241 overall, #106 forward): I feel bad for Charlie V. It’s not too surprising that he has struggled, as he had six months away from basketball following shoulder surgery and returned to a role that was in a state of flux with the arrival of Yi. However, it now seems that if he is ever to fully realize his potential it wont be in Milwaukee. His season has mirrored everybody else’s so far — he has rebounded the ball better than expected, shot very poorly, and committed more turnovers than expected. But he’s much better than a 0.55 IPM guy, and should he be able to keep himself motivated in his reserve role, he will put up much better numbers soon.

However, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see his name coming up in trade rumors before the year is finished.

So, to sum up the first six games of the year: a slow start, but theres nothing here to suggest that the playoffs are not a reasonable goal.

The Bucks are going to finish in fourth place in the division this year. However, they could be anywhere between the 5th best and 12th best teams in the conference, so there is plenty to think about for this season. Here’s a player-by-player look at what we can expect to see on the court this season (listed in order of salary):

Michael Redd: He is in his prime and has raised his game a little bit every season. Hopefully this is the year that his teammates bring enough offense to allow him to reduce his load a little. Despite his reputation, Redd is more than just a standstill jump shooter — he got to the line very effectively last season, and it would be nice to see him add a wrinkle to his game by dishing the ball off on his drives more often. Redd will never be much of a defensive player, but at least his offense has always been good enough to make his court contribution net-positive unless he has to stick the best opposition (Iverson and Kobe are two guys who have always absolutely killed him). The bottom line is that Michael Redd is a solid star — not someone who can carry you to the championship, but a star nonetheless.

Bobby Simmons: Hopefully the real Simmons finally shows up this season. When healthy, he is a tough, physical defender (think a sane Ron Artest with 80% of the ability) and an excellent three-point shooter. Simmons played hurt for most of his first season with the Bucks and never really got on track, but he’s an important part of the puzzle this year. Simmons is the only starter who can be considered a plus-defender and he is also a good rebounder for his position, so getting him back into the lineup addresses the Bucks’ two major weaknesses.

Mo Williams: I’ve never really bought into the whole “pure point guard” vs. “shoot-first point guard” thing for two reasons: first, the most important thing is for the team to score more points than the opposition and, second, there isnt really any good way to objectively measure how good a passer a player is. Assists, for example, has as much to do with the point guards’ pass as it does with the finishing ability of the recipient and the decision of the official scorer. So does Mo shoot too much? Last season he took the 5th most shots per 40 minutes of all point guards (behind Arenas, Parker, Cassell and Davis) with 16.87, but the difference between him and the #21 point guard (Stephon Marbury) was only 2.81 shots per 40! That’s less than 1 per quarter! Also, Mo had several games where he was the only starter in uniform, so his scoring was necessary. No, his shooting was fine. Mo’s new contract is reasonable given his production and age, and he still has room to improve. Point guards often take years and years to reach their peaks, so while Williams will most likely plateau as a slightly below-all-star level player, there is always the outside chance that he could have a Chanuncey Billups-like career.

Desmond Mason: Don’t expect much production from Mason, as his game has really slipped in the last couple of years and he’s no longer good enough to be a full time starter. However, this signing provides good value for several reasons. He fills an important role as the backup small forward, and may be needed for as much as 25 minutes a night depending on Simmons’ health. He wont complain about not starting and should provide bursts of energy off the bench. Also, his contract is only two years, so he could be a valuable trade asset next season. Finally, he is a quality person who wanted to sign in Milwaukee. As long as the team doesn’t ask him to do too much on the court, this was a good signing. Should they wind up needing for him to start … that’s trouble.

Dan Gadzuric: After being misused by Terry Stotts and suffering through a simply awful season, it was hard to believe that Danny G was even an NBA player at all at times. It seemed like everything he touched bounced off his hands last year (making me wonder if he was playing with some kind of lingering finger injury) contributing to a lousy shooting percentage, high turnover rate, and dropoff in his rebounding. He also fouled too much, but that’s typical for him. I’m glad to see that Coach Krystkowiak is thinking about playing him at power forward, where his rebounding will be a big plus and maybe matching up with players closer to his size will help him rush less and concentrate more on holding onto the ball. He can’t possibly be as bad as he was last season, but he’s never going to play up to his contract, which has 4 years and $25 million remaining.

Andrew Bogut: While it’s pretty clear by now that he will never reach the level of some other young centers like Amare Stoudemire or Dwight Howard, hopefully Bogut will make the leap this year to a sort of “best of the rest” category. Bogut is younger than many people may realize — still 1 year younger than Patrick Ewing was in his rookie season — so there is still time for Bogut to mature physically. He is bigger this season and looked very good in the preseason, and hopefully that will transfer into a more agressive, physical game — because that’s what this team needs. They are depending on him to be their best rebounder, and an extra one per quarter would make a huge difference. I would also like to see Bogut shoot more. He shot 55% from the floor, which for a good offensive player (except for Shaq) means he isn’t shooting enough because he passes up too many difficult shots. At some point, Bogut’s game will have to make a big jump to justify being the #1 pick in the draft, and hopefully that jump comes now. But if he only improves his rebounding, then that will be enough to make him one of the best non-all-star true centers in the game.

Jake Voskuhl: Should Danny G drop the ball again this season then Voskuhl will see some playing time, but hopefully that wont happen. He’s not very good defensively, an okay shooter, not a particularly special rebounder … well, he’s a #3 center. What do you expect.

Charlie Bell: This is the exact opposite of the Desmond Mason signing. His contract is for very reasonable dollars but way too long (some other time I’ll write about why matching his contract was really, really dumb). If anything, Bell deserved even more money up front (considering how well he played the last two years for the minimum) but a 5 year contract to any role player, especially one who is 28 years old, is not a wise move. In the other anti-parallels to the Mason signing; Bell is effective on the court, doesn’t want to be here and showed up to camp out of shape (logically, though, he didn’t work out in the summer lest he injure himself while he had no contract, so that’s not a problem, and he is a quality person who just doesn’t want to be on the Bucks any longer). If Bell plays like he did the last two seasons he will be a valuable backup to both Williams and Redd who pulls his weight on the court and also who’s ability to play multiple positions allows a great deal of roster flexibility. However, I wonder what happens if he struggles on the court and never stops playing this whiny “I hate the Bucks” game. We don’t need the backup guard to be a distraction. I’ve been knocking Bell for a long time now, and I really do want him to succeed, but I just can’t shake the feeling that his head isn’t all here.

Yi Jianlian: Superstar or bust? 19 or 23 years old? The questions don’t end with this guy, and I think that finding out what we have here will cause some major growing pains — and some losses. I’m afraid that Yi’s rookie year will look a lot like Adam Morrison’s: he gets force-fed minutes, he has a few scoring outbursts but is lacking in other facets of the game, and his defense will be so bad that he costs them games. Hopefully Yi shoots better than Morrison. Yi had one 12-rebound preseason game, but also one where he was repeatedly beaten for baskets and boards by Kenyon Martin (he of the microfracture surgery on both knees). Hopefully Yi has enough of a mean streak that he will brush off the bad games, toughen up, take advantage of his size and deliver some punishment. I hope he’s not too soft for that.

Charlie Villanueva: It’s tough to figure out what to do with guys with Charlie V’s skill set. Such a tantalizing combination of shooting and distributing ability but too weak to play power forward and too big/slow to play small forward. Toronto dumped him because they couldn’t use him with Chris Bosh and now they have the same problem with Andrea Bargnani, and Lamar Odom has bounced back and forth between the forward positions with multiple teams. Villanueva is a double-double machine when he’s healthy and motivated, and one wonders if the force-feeding of minutes to Yi will hurt Charlie V’s attitude and intensity. Because of all the question marks — some of which are beyond Villanueva’s control — it’s tough to say that the Bucks can depend on him. hopefully he can play 10 mpg at small forward, get 35 mpg overall, and put to rest the questions about who won the TJ Ford trade.

Michael Ruffin: I’m glad to see the Bucks kept him instead of Samaki Walker. Ruffin is one of the most comically bad offensive players in NBA history, but at least he knows it and stays out of the way. He can rebound and play tough D, and given the amount of offensive talent on the team he fills some needs. Gadzuric will always have those occassional nights where he gets 5 fouls in 4 minutes, and Ruffin can step in as the third power forward or (undersized) center for a few minutes at a time. He’s a good signing as an 11th man.

Royal Ivey, Awvee Storey, David Noel, Ramon Sessions: If any of these guys are playing much than things have gone awry. Ivey will be at the end of the bench for defense at the guard spots, and Storey was signed as a #3 small forward in case Simmons can’t go and Mason is pressed into the starting lineup. David Noel would be best served spending the season in the NBDL trying to fill out his game. The same could probably be said for Sessions, as he would be better off playing 25 minutes a game somewhere else rather than 2 mpg here.

The best-case scenario for this team is that Bogut turns into a big-time rebounder, Yi brings high-percentage scoring and Charlie V becomes a multi-position threat. In terms of overall talent, this team could be the second deepest in the East (behind Chicago), which is exciting because the top 8 players are under 30 years old and under contract for at least 3 years. However, if the rebounding doesn’t sort itself out and Yi struggles, then the team’s lack of defensive presence could cause it all to fall apart. This team can win anywhere from 35 to 45 games. They could even win a playoff series (in a perfect world, I could see them beating Detroit or Cleveland). But they could also really collapse. So, here’s my fearless prediction: 42 wins, 8th seed in the playoffs.

Well, look at that … the NBA season is underway! In LaCrosse the Bucks beat the Bulls 93-88 last night, and there are a couple of interesting items to take from this game.

The first, not-so-interesting and not terribly worrying, either, is that Yi played 11 minutes, scoring 3 points, getting no rebounds and fouling out. Just the first of many nights that will be a struggle for him.

However, the rest of the frontcourt is another story. From what I heard on the radio it sounded like Andrew Bogut was very active offensively, and I’m glad to see him hit 6-8 free throws. The thing about Bogut is that for him to reach his potential he just needs to improve a little in every facet of the game (as opposed to, say, Eddy Curry), and should he get his free throw percentage up to the 75% range it will be a big help.

The Bucks started Dan Gadzuric alongside Bogut, which continues a trend from the open scrimmage. I always wondered why Terry Stotts was so resistant to playing Gadzuric at the 4, where his rebounding ablilty would be even more of a plus and he would defend players closer to his own size. Of course, Gadzuric had such a miserable year last season that he wasn’t very useful at any position, but it’s good to see that Kryskowiak is willing to take a look at some different personnel options. The stated reason was that he started Gadzuric and Mason because of the amount of energy they showed in practice, but lets hope that Mason-over-Simmons doesn’t become a habit.

There is some word going around that the Bucks are tinkering with installing the triangle into their offensive sets, which could actually work very well given the Bucks’ personell. It’s worth noting that the triangle-as-primary-offense has never succeeded in the NBA — the Jordan-era Bulls ran it early in games to conserve energy and always abandoned it in the 4th quarter, and the Shaq-Kobe Lakers almost never ran it for more than a couple of minutes, and often with Shaq on the bench. However, as an energy-conserving change of pace, it could make for a very efficient offense.

To run the triangle you need:

1) A center who can pass and hit the 15 foot jumper. Bogut’s passing is superior to his jumper, of course, but his passing is so good that it may make up for the fact that he doesn’t shoot from 15 feet very often.

2) A spot-up shooter. Typically in the triangle this is the role of the point guard, who initiates the sequence by getting the ball into the high post and fading to the corner. Mo can fulfill this role well, but his skills are better put to use as one of the primary scorers in the offense, but Bobby Simmons is deadly from the corners.

3) Two penetrators who can shoot and score off the dribble. Lost in the story of last season was the fact that Michael Redd started getting to the line a lot. He has really raised his ability to drive and, obviously his shooting is not a question mark. He almost never passes when he drives, which is a problem, but the beauty of the triangle is that it spreads the floor so much that double teaming is very difficult. Mo can also blow by most people guarding them, and shoots well enough to keep defenders honest. His driving ability is kind of the opposite of Redd’s; Mo passes out of the drive better but doesn’t get fouled often enough. However, Mo getting into the paint is generally a positive for the Bucks.

4) A “dirty work” power forward who rebounds and keeps his mouth shut. Here’s where it gets tough. Power forward is the most miserable position in the triangle, because you do nothing but stay out of the way and crash the boards. The only time you score is on the occassional back door cut and usually you spend most of the posession standing far away from the action to make it more difficult for your man to double team a penetrator. Charlie V and Yi are very poorly suited for this role and Danny G plays so out of control I can visualize him committing an over-the-back foul on every single posession. However, this is where signing Michael Ruffin makes a lot of sense. He doesn’t need, want or know what to do with the ball on offense, he rebounds hard, and plays good defense. He’s actually an almost perfect triangle offense power forward.

10 minutes a game of the triangle with a lineup of Williams-Redd-Simmons-Ruffin-Bogut? That might work.

The Bucks have given one year minimum deals to a pair of veteran, limited power forwards. They added Samaki Walker and Michael Ruffin.

Walker’s career has had two highlights. One was being the number 9 pick in the 1996 draft, taken ahead of Kobe Bryant, Peja Stojakovic, Steve Nash and Jermaine O’Neal. The other was the fact that he wore one of the greatest draft-night suits ever. Every so often I like to attend a black-tie function, but I have yet to find one where a white bowler hat is appropriate. Walker is on his 8th different NBA team and was out of the league last year.

Ruffin is, quite simply, one of the most unbelieveably inept offensive players in NBA history. Seriously. In his 7 year career, Ruffin has averaged 1.7 PPG while playing 14.8 minutes per game! Prorated out to 40 minutes per game, he would average under 5 PPG. He is also a very entertaining 46% career free throw shooter. He is, however, a somewhat decent rebounder (10.8 rebounds per 40 minutes for his career) and has a reputation as a pretty solid defender. We’ll see.

These signings bring the Bucks up to 16 players on the roster, so I have to think that between Ramon Sessions, Awvee Storey, and David Noel, one of them will not be with the team at the end of camp. My money is on Sessions, who will probably be in the NBDL working out the kinks in his jumper.