The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Now that this season is finally over, it is time to recap the contributions of each player. I’m not a big fan of giving letter grades, especially since when you consider that the Bucks’ record this season was actually worse than last years’ injury-marred one, everybody associated with this team pretty much deserves an “F-“. Except for my season ticket rep, Nick. He has been great this season, always accommodating and helpful.

So I’ve decided to grade each player on how responsible they were for Larry Krystkowiak getting fired.

I’m going to review each player over the course of the next several days in reverse order of their salary, and also am giving their final IPM (data for all players available here). As you may know, typically an IPM greater than 0.9 is borderline all-star level, over 0.8 is that of a solid starter, above 0.7 is a useful player, and below 0.6 means you were probably hurting the team more than helping it. Also, because it is a per-minute measurement, it becomes much more accurate the more minutes you play – so take Ramon Session’s ranking with a grain of salt. He’s not really the 33rd best player in the NBA.

Ramon Sessions ($427K, 0.931 IPM): Thank you Larry Harris for this wonderful parting gift. Sessions was the lone bright spot of the end of the season, as he provided a boost with his pass-first game and eye popping statistics, highlighted by 127 assists vs. only 36 turnovers. The knee-jerk reaction is to jettison Mo Williams and turn the point guard spot over to Sessions, but let’s not get too excited just yet.

The red flag about Sessions is that his impressive play ran counter to his career style. In college and the NBDL, Sessions was a ball-dominating scorer who was hard to keep off of the free throw line, but once coming to the NBA he concentrated on passing first and shooting second. The results, when accompanied by some less-than-intense defense on the part of the Bucks’ opponents, were some excellent box scores (45 points, 38 assists, 15 rebounds and 5 turnovers on 18-29 shooting in the final two games). One has to wonder what will happen next season when he plays against teams that actually want to play defense against him.

The only reason for the Bucks to go into next season with Sessions as the starter is if they win the draft lottery and take Derrick Rose, but Sessions will clearly be a valuable reserve next season. Just think – a bench player who can actually create an offensive set and draw a foul once in a while!

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

David Noel ($687K): Lost for the season to a shoulder injury, we will never get to see what Noel might have brought to the table this season. With the signing of Awvee Storey, Noel would most likely have been in the D-League or wearing a suit on the bench all season, anyway.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Awvee Storey ($770K, 0.647 IPM): I can only see one reason why Storey was given a guaranteed contract in the first place: because Storey’s agent Mark Bartlestein is Mo Williams’ agent as well, and by helping out another client Larry Harris was trying to enlist Bartelstein to persuade Mo to stay in Milwaukee rather than head for Miami. How’d that one work out, Larry?

After an embarrassing 2006-07 season which saw Storey kicked out of the D-League for putting a teammate into a coma (and then breaking an opposing players’ rib while boxing him out in a German League game) it was amazing that Storey simply wasn’t blackballed out of the league in the first place.

The signing sort of made some sense at the time – Storey was veteran insurance in case Bobby Simmons couldn’t go after missing the previous season and/or the Desmond Mason signing turned out to be a bust (which it would have been had Mason played as poorly as he did with the Hornets). But why, then, give Storey a guaranteed contract? By the time his deal would have to be picked up the Bucks would have known what they had in their top two small forwards. They could have then released Storey before his contract became guaranteed and had an open roster spot to audition young players who may have been worth a shot (such as Nick Fazekas, the Mavericks second round pick who became Sessions’ top running mate for the NBDL’s Tulsa 66ers. Fazekas was released by the Mavs, signed by the Clippers, and would put up a 0.88 IPM in 26 games for them). Oh yes, he was given a guaranteed contract because of his agent.

But it seems that Krystkowiak couldn’t stand Storey’s game anyway. After Desmond Mason got hurt and Simmons simply sucked, instead of inserting Storey into the rotation Coach K continued to trot out Charlie Bell and Michael Redd at the small forward position. Storey wound up only seeing action in 26 games, with 90% of that coming after the season was long lost.

Probably the most pathetic thing is that Storey finished the season with the Bucks’ 6th best IPM, behind only Sessions, Bogut, Williams, Redd and Villanueva. The guy doesn’t even belong in the league and he was their best per-minute bench player this season!

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 0%

Royal Ivey ($798K, 0.548 IPM): Iveys’ reputation as a great defender sure got him a lot of playing time this season, and what a waste that was. Ivey must have really shut down Dee Brown and Scoonie Penn in his Bucks tryout, because despite all evidence to the contrary, Coach K kept on using Ivey as his “defensive stopper.�

There were two problems with that strategy – even if Ivey’s defense was absolutely awesome, there was no way it would make up for his own putrid offense (he actually finished with the lowest IPM on the team). However, there is no evidence whatsoever that Ivey’s defense was any good, either. According to 82games.com, the production of the player that Ivey was guarding averaged out to double that of what Ivey produced himself.

I don’t understand how any team could expect to win more than about 26 games if they are giving Royal Ivey 20 minutes a night. Yet, Coach K kept going back to him, probably because his “energy in practice� and “defensive intensity� (meaning: he looks really disappointed in himself when he gets beat) were there.

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 12%

Michael Ruffin ($1.0M, 0.610 IPM): I really liked the idea of signing Ruffin, because I felt that a team with so much offensive talent on it could use a defensive banger like him. Ruffin is the most inept offensive player in NBA history, but has carved out a nice niche for himself as a guy who comes in, throws his body around, gives some hard fouls, grabs some boards and stays out of the way of the talented players. He’s useful.

The Bucks even played a little better with him on the floor than off, being outscored by 8.4 points per game without him but only 2.2 ppg with him. Ruffin did his job. He won’t help you win, but he doesn’t help you lose, and he makes it all look pretty ugly.

Ruffin, however, was the centerpiece of the Play That Probably Sealed Larry Krystkowiak’s Fate As Bucks Coach. After blowing a 17 point third quarter lead to the New York Knicks, and with the Bucks trailing by one with three seconds remaining, Krystkowiak inexplicably left Ruffin in the game for the final play. Even Isiah Thomas realized this and started coaching long enough to tell the Knicks defense to leave Ruffin open in order to deny everyone else the ball. Ruffin was then left to miss a 6-foot finger roll at the buzzer.

Michael Ruffin has scored 4.2 points per 36 minutes in his nine year NBA career, and Larry Krystkowiak put him into a position to take the final shot in a game. And now Krystkowiak is looking for a new job. Need I say more?

Responsibility for Coach K’s dismissal: 3%

Next up: The mysteries known as Charlie V, Jake V, and Yi.

Timing is a funny thing. Larry Harris is fired on the same day that my season ticket renewal package arrives in the mail (printed on the envelope: “Important renewal information: No price increase for 08-09!�). Last season the renewal package arrived a couple of days after Terry Stotts was fired. Coincidence? I think not.

Anyway, it means that now is the time to say goodbye to Larry Harris. History will remember his tenure as a failure, and while that is true when looking at the results on the court, it is unfair as well. I’d prefer that his period as Bucks GM be remembered as one where he consistently did the right things only to see them work out poorly.

2008 is a lousy year to decide to run for President. The country is sliding into a recession caused by a credit implosion, skyrocketing commodity prices threaten a horrible period of stagflation and we are stuck fighting a war that has no easy outcome in sight. I often wonder why Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain would choose now to run, rather than wait until 2012.

The answer is that some jobs must be filled. Sometimes the luck of the draw means that winning a coveted job means you are doomed to failure because of the circumstances around them.

This happened to Larry Harris.

He inherited a Bucks team that had been completely mortgaged by Ernie Grunfeld and George Karl’s shortsighted mismanagement. Grunfeld had already traded away the Bucks’ 2003 and 2004 first round picks (but had added Atlanta’s 2003 pick) and had turned Sam Cassell, Glenn Robinson and Ray Allen into little more than Joe Smith, Desmond Mason and TJ Ford (making the Cassell trade three days before leaving the Bucks job and four days before taking the Washington job). Harris took over a team with no bargaining power and no draft picks. He was set up for failure from the beginning.

NBA GM’s sometimes get a bad rap as sit-on-your-hands types who are afraid to make big moves. That is unfair. For all the great trade proposals you can come up with, the other team has to agree to them in order for them to be consummated. For all the scouting you do to find undervalued players, the days of a Manu Ginobli or Tony Parker slipping through the cracks is gone. The way an NBA GM succeeds has to do with one thing: luck. You can do all the right things, but it can all still go awry. Harris made bold moves throughout his tenure (until the reigns were clearly slapped on him this season) with his signing of Bobby Simmons and trades for Jamaal Magloire and Charlie Villanueva. Good moves at the time, but they turned out to be players who couldn’t live up to their billing.

Harris had one opportunity to change the direction of the franchise and he missed, by selecting Andrew Bogut over Chris Paul. No matter how good Bogut is or will become, he will never be a top-5 player like Paul is now. But can you really knock Harris for taking Bogut? Just by saying “I liked Paul more at the time� (which it’s funny how everyone now says they felt) is different than actually being the GM and making the choice. It’s a lot easier to find decent point guards than it is good big men. What were the odds that Paul would become a superstar so quickly? If Harris had kept Ford would people still be complaining?

Regardless, Harris’ biggest failing as a GM was his undying optimism about his players. He clearly felt that his core of very good players was ready to become a great team, as he said before the 2005-06 season that they were ready to make the second round of the playoffs. But that’s the funny thing about basketball – collecting good players doesn’t automatically mean you have a good team. The parts have to fit together. The group needs chemistry and a collectively well-rounded skill set. They need one leader and plenty of other pieces who are happy with their roles. Harris never learned that.

This team needs major changes. Harris was the person that assembled the group, but now it will take a new person to assess what the team has and how to turn those incompatible pieces into a real team.

Larry Harris tried to build a winner in a lousy situation. But at least he leaves the team in better shape than he got it – no better on the floor, but with more young talent and all their upcoming draft picks. At least they are in a better position to build for the future than they were in 2003.

————–

My five part series “Grading Larry Harris” is available here:
Part One: The Okay Moves
Part Two: The Winners
Part Three: The Losers
Part Four: The Move That Cannot Be Categorized (Bogut over Paul)
The Conclusion

The Bucks announced today that Larry Harris’ contract will not be renewed and he is leaving the team immediately.

After being told that the team would allow his contract to expire, the team and Harris decided to part ways now.

This makes sense on all parts. With the story breaking that the Bucks had been in contact with Donnie Walsh (and past rumors about Doug Collins and Rick Sund), it was clear that Harris would not be retained.

So who will the new guy be?

What does this mean for Larry Krystkowiak?

All questions to explore in the coming days.

According to the New York Daily News, the Bucks (and the Knicks) have been pursuing Indiana Pacers CEO Donnie Walsh to join the front office next season.

This would be a good hire, as Walsh was the architect of the Pacers’ run of success dating back to the early 90’s, but considering that there are other teams in the mix and that he is 67 years old, I’d guess that his actually coming to Milwaukee would be a long shot. The more important story is that it signals the end for Larry Harris.

Reading between the lines, it has been pretty obvious that Harris was about done. Their failure to make any moves, the rumors about the ridiculous Zach Randolph, and Kohl’s silence about extending Harris’ contract were signals, but if they are now actively pursuing a replacement, it’s a done deal. And it’s time, too. Harris assembled this team and now it needs changes. Those changes are tough to make if you are emotionally invested in bringing the current pieces in.

I know that money talks and the Knicks can offer far more money than the Bucks can, but honestly Milwaukee would probably be a more appealing destination for Walsh.

Consider the pros and cons:

Knicks

Significantly higher salary.
Seemlingly unlimited roster budget.
Money no object for hiring coaches and assistants.
Ridiculous roster makes it impossible to make major changes until 2009/10.
Roster contains three players who would have any trade value (Lee, Balkman, Robinson).
Walsh is from New York.
Owes a future first round pick to Utah.
Horrible, insular working nvironment and culture at Madison Square Garden.
Owner is completely insane.
Highest paid player is completely insane.

Bucks:

Limited cap manuverability until 2010.
Five potential trade chips in case of a major overhaul (Redd, Williams, Bogut, Yi, Villanueva).
Location is closer to Indianapolis-based family.
Payroll limited to below luxury tax.

Money aside, the Bucks job is far more appealing. Would you honestly want to work for James Dolan? Would you really want to take on a complete organizational housecleaning at 67 years old? Wouldn’t you rather have the Bucks’ relatively inexpensive core to work with over the Knicks’ completely disjointed one?

Anyway, I’m sure that the Knicks checkbook will carry the day in this battle, while the Pacers’ current VP of Basketball Operations, David Morway, might be the Bucks’ consolation prize as their next GM.

Meanwhile, I attended my first Bucks game in a couple of weeks last night against the Heat, and I came away thoroughly perplexed.

It cannot be overstated just how bad the Heat are right now. They dressed nine players. They are missing their three best projected opening night starters (Wade and Haslem out, Shaq gone). Marion was a nonfactor, playing 28 minutes and with the Bucks outscoring the Heat by 10 with him in. They were so starved for wins that their bench was acting like it was game seven of the finals. Jason Williams actually looked interested!

Clearly the Bucks should have won this game going away, but that isn’t the only thing that has me confused. The season is now lost, so at this point shouldn’t learning a little about your team be a goal, instead of tossing out the same old lineups that haven’t worked all season?

Instead, after the game, Krystkowiak talked to the Journal Sentinel and vaguely blamed his players.

“We’ve talked about just about everything,” (Krystkowiak) said. “I’m not afraid to repeat some stuff but it’s frustrating. We need to be self-starters. We’ll look at the plan . . . what broke down as far as the tactical approach. . . . We’ll see as coaches if we can fix that and not put ourselves in the (same) position.

“Players have to take more responsibility. We all have to. Everybody has to step up a little bit here. It’s not a time for speeches and a lot of talk. It’s getting out and playing.”

I don’t really understand what Krystkowiak is trying to say here. I guess he’s decided that his players aren’t doing what he wants them to for whatever reason. But who is that really an indictment of? Doesn’t that reflect back on him?

I think that this was a veiled shot at Mo Williams’ defense, specifically his complete inability to get through picks and keep Jason Williams from getting open 3 after open 3. It got so bad that eventually Krystkowiak switched Mason onto Jason Williams (which didn’t stop Chris Quinn from getting 3 open 3’s himself in the 4th quarter).

But my real problem with Krystkowiak in this game was my usual complaint about him — lack of imagination. It’s time to realize that some new lineups — for a few minutes at a time — are necessary. Just a couple of adjustments might have given a little insight into the team, and maybe even saved the game.

Two examples:

When the Bucks were cruising along with a 13 point lead in the 3rd quarter I turned to my friend and said, “Now’s the time to bring in Yi for Mason.” Yi looks awful right now, and seems to be moving at half speed, but he did an okay job against Marion in the first half and that would have moved Villanueva to the 3. This was a perfect situation to try a big lineup out. How would Villanueva have looked matched up with Ricky Davis? What would Pat Riley have done? If it doesn’t work and Miami runs off a quick 6-0 run, then take Yi out.

In the fourth quarter, when the Bucks were in the process of blowing the game but hadn’t quite lost the lead yet, Krystkowiak gave Mo a rest and trotted out a lineup of Ivey-Bell-Mason-Yi-Ruffin. How, exactly, is that supposed to work? Who is supposed to score? With Yi in such a funk, not one of those players is remotely capable of creating a shot. Not surprisingly, that lineup was on the floor while Miami would take their eventual lead. Why not use Sessions in that situation? You would get a real point guard in there, someone who is bigger who might be able to defend a pick-and-roll a little better, and he would be matched up against a relatively poor defender (either Jason Williams or Chris Quinn). Don’t you want to see what you have in Sessions, even if it’s only for a couple of minutes at a time?

Either way, it is clear: from his actions during the game and his comments after it, Krystkowiak is missing the point: winning is still the goal, but the time has come to accept that what you have done to this point hasn’t worked. It’s time to think up some new options with an eye toward the future. If you are going to lose to Miami anyway, it’s pointless to lose to them by doing the exact same things that have carried you to 43 other losses this season.

It was almost exactly one year ago when Larry Krystkowiak had his home debut as head coach of the Bucks. They played the Spurs and after Mo Williams got kicked out of the game for arguing calls, Lynn Greer came in and inspired a rally which propelled them to a win over — and season sweep of — the eventual NBA champions.

Last night, though, was different. The Bucks had a 7-point lead when Mo blew his top, arguing a foul call against him (which was an accurate call, by the way) until he got one technical. Exactly why he got the second one is an open question, but the fact remains that Mo was still standing near the offical at the time. Ime Udoka makes both free throws, the lead is cut to five, and the next thing you know the Bucks lose by two.

After Mo went out, credit the Spurs for adjusting. Bell replaced Mo and the Spurs turned up the defensive heat, pressing the Bucks into submission. Milwaukee went several minutes barely able to get the ball across half court and the ensuing 15-0 Spurs run would wind up giving them the game.

So how is the loss to be blamed on Larry Harris?

Because he’s the one who put together a team with only four guards on it. You’ve got to hand it to the Spurs — Popovich realized that once Mo was out, he wanted to force the Bucks to go small. So he gave Duncan a rest and moved Oberto to center alongside Parker, Ginobli, Finley and Udoka. Instant 8-0 run against Bogut, Villanueva, Mason, Redd and Bell. When Krystkowiak had to rest Redd and go small by pulling Villanueva he had to get significantly weaker by bringing in Simmons and Ivey. The Spurs extended that run to 15.

Statistically, the Bucks have had the worst bench in the entire league this season. A large part of that is that they get no offense from their backcourt. At least last season they had Greer on the bench behind Blake/Boykins. Between Ivey and Bell, there just isn’t enough help on the bench. So as soon as Mo takes a seat, a good defensive team realizes they are easy pickings.

Sorry I haven’t posted much recently — in addition to some family obligations, I’ve been starting my NBA Draft preview. I have, however, found time to update IPM and Power Rankings. The surprise of the rankings: I had no idea the Sixers had been playing so well over the last month (7th best Eastern team). Maybe they are the team that wants to jump up and grab the #8 playoff spot.

According to the New York Daily News, Larry Harris is trying — he can’t give up pining for Zach Randolph, but Herb Kohl isn’t buying it.

“…a league source told The News that the Bucks’ owner, Milwaukee Sen.Herb Kohl, yesterday rejected a trade that would have sent Randolph and either Fred Jones or Jared Jeffries to Milwaukee for a package including Bobby Simmons, Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric, who all have long-term contracts.

Milwaukee GM Larry Harris, who may be let go at season’s end, is eager to make a deal to help his struggling team and presented a similar package to Kohl in January. However, Kohl is reluctant to approve any trades Harris brings to him.”

Looks like Harris is pretty desperate. Granted, that deal would rid the Bucks of their three worst contracts and open a backup guard spot for Ramon Sessions, but they wouldn’t gain any cap flexibility because Randolph’s contract has one more year on it than Simmons’ (and if the deal included Jefferies, they would be actually adding salary and taking back a contract as bad as Gadzuric’s). Also, why would you bring in Randolph if Yi is your power forward of the future?

This proposed deal shows what happens when GM’s know they are headed out of the door. Harris is proposing a trade that might shake up the roster enough to boost their performance this year, but most likely it will just cause more problems than it would solve. And, because it would involve the Bucks taking on a huge long-term contract, if it doesn’t work it will have negative reprecussions on the franchise for years to come. But Harris doesn’t care about that any more — because if he doesn’t make any trades he’s gone anyway and if he tries this trade and it doesn’t work he knows he wont be around to clean up the mess.

Herb Kohl is doing the right thing by not allowing Harris to make this trade.

Of course, this does beg the question: if Harris is as good as gone then why is he still around? Hopefully, it is because Kohl wants to take a pragmatic approach to finding a new GM, and might be interested in someone who currently has another job. I pray that this doesn’t mean he wants Doug Collins. I hope he’s planning on actually looking outside of the organization and his immediate circle of friends.

Does Larry Harris have any power left in the front office? Is he as good as gone? The answer will come today when the trade deadline passes, and if the Bucks are quiet then it’s a pretty strong sign that the Bucks’ front office will look very different right after this season ends.

With 29 games remaining, Bucks fans can pretty much forget about a playoff run, especially now that Atlanta has brought in a real point guard in Mike Bibby and it appears that the Jason Kidd trade has fallen apart for New Jersey. I suppose that it’s possible for this team to run off a long home winning streak (they do have 18 home games left), but to think that they can leap over four teams is a bit of a long shot.

So what else would I like to see over the rest of the season?

Choose an offensive identity and stick with it. All season long, I have expressed my frustration with Krystkowiak’s strategy of slowing the game down in an effort to improve the team’s defense. Of course, the net result is that the Bucks’ offense has gotten worse while their defense has stayed equally bad. There are indications that Krystkowiak now wants to open up the offense more, leading to more shots for Mo and Redd at the expense of Bogut. As far as I’m concerned, the faster a pace the Bucks play the better — if they are blessed with anything it is several high-percentage scorers, as their top five players all shoot better than 43.5% (and Redd is uncharacteristically low at that number). I’d much rather see this team trying to outscore teams rather than beat them with defense.

Rest Yi. Yi Jianlian has clearly hit the “rookie wall” and needs a break. The problem is that with Olympic duties looming this summer, Yi isn’t going to get much rest this summer. I wouldn’t mind if Yi comes up with a “sprained ankle” or “sprained shoulder” that keeps him out of a few games. Let him get some rest now, because the last thing we need to hear in training camp next season is how he’s tired from the summer.

Lots of playing time for Charlie Villanueva. Either at power forward or small forward, Villanueva needs to be in the starting lineup, playing big minutes, and showcasing himself for an offseason trade. Not counting the game in which he sprained his ankle, Charlie V averaged 17.6 points and 12 rebounds in his three starts. He is never going to start at power forward for this team (Yi is too important to the financial future of the franchise to ever be moved) so either we have to see if he can play small forward or move him. He’s about the most desirable trade chip this team has, so if he puts up big numbers in the final two months of the season he should garner some interest around the league.

Get Michael Redd some better shots. For any number of reasons, Redd has been suffering through a poor shooting season by his standards. To the casual observer it looks like he takes a ton of bad shots, but I think the problem is that he has been having trouble getting open. I believe that part of this is that he has been spending far to much time at small forward — where his size is negated by his lack of strength and quickness. But the rest of the offensive strategy has to bear some blame for not getting him open as well. You would think that the Bucks would run a steady diet of pick-and-rolls with Redd and Yi (only with Yi fading for a jumper than rolling to the basket).

But this brings me to something else I have noticed all season — is it possible that Redd is freezing out Yi? While Yi does not post up enough, I don’t think that I’ve seen Redd toss a post entry pass to Yi all year, and I’ve definitely seen Redd pass up on feeding Yi several times. I hate to think something like this about somebody like Redd, but could he be refusing to involve Yi because of jealousy over Yi’s profile in the recognition? Does Redd have a problem with not being the face of the franchise as he used to?

I’ve noticed this all season, but really started to wonder after the December 22 game against Charlotte, when Yi scored 29 points on 14-17 shooting. Yi had 25 after 3 quarters, and suddenly Redd started firing up shots from anywhere in the fourth, taking nine shots to Yi’s four. You could almost hear Redd saying, “No way this guy’s leading us in scoring tonight.” And while the Bucks led that game by 22 late in the third quarter, Redd’s decisions to pull the trigger early in the shot clock so many times contributed to the final victory margin only being four points.

It pains me to suggest this, but it does remind me of the 2002 Bulls when Jalen Rose openly refused to pass to Jay Williams. There’s absolutely no evidence to support what I’m saying, but it bears watching — I think that Redd’s next post entry pass to Yi will be his first.

Either extend Larry Harris’ contract — or don’t. For all of the complaints about how Harris has done as GM, the truth is that he has done about as well as he could in running a franchise that had been short-circuted by the mismanagement of Ernie Grunfeld (as he had traded away the Bucks’ 2004 first round pick in 2000 and had somehow managed to trade their 2003 pick along with Ray Allen for a two month rental of Gary Payton). Now Herb Kohl has a decision to make — either let Harris try to continue building the team, or to hand the reigns to someone else. My guess is that the answer will be someone else — and if the Bucks are silent on the trade front between now and the deadline, it will be a stong sign that Kohl has tied Harris’ hands and that he will be gone before the NBA draft.

Stop getting blown out by good teams! As the Dallas and New Orleans game showed, there was no reason for the incredible early-season run of 20+ point blowout losses to good teams. This is probably the single biggest indictment of Larry Krystkowiak’s coaching philosophy — good teams have chewed up his gameplans in minutes. This team may not be a championship contender, but it also has no business getting blown out at a pace similar to that of the worst teams in NBA history.

I don’t think it’s too much to ask for. I don’t want them to tank games for draft position (this years’ draft looks to be full of busts to me). I just want this team to play hard, not to quit on their coach, and to be competitive through the end of the year.

The last grasp for a playoff spot slipped through the Bucks’ fingers on Monday night as they dropped their second straight home game to a team they should have beaten. Incredibly, this team is now 19-33 and has the exact same record they did at this point of last season. Last year the excuse was injuries. Now, according to Coach Krystkowiak in Tom Enlund’s Journal-Sentinel story, this season’s excuse is that some of his players don’t care.

“…. We’ve been talking about together. It’s really easy right now to start separating. And it’s happening.

‘It’s happening and we need to put an end to it and we need to figure out which guys want to be a part of it, which guys are in, and we’re going to go down swinging with guys that are going to play hard. ….. it’s not about individuals. It’s about us surviving. We’ve got a nucleus of guys in that room that are interested in doing that and some others I’m not so sure about”

Oh, that’s nice. So not only do you just blatantly blast all of your players by saying that “some of them” are quitting (but by not naming names then you basically bring that speculation upon all of them) but you also set up playing time for the remainder of the season as the ultimate arbiter of who cares and who doesn’t — at least in the eyes of the fans.

So I guess that means that a player who is 100% committed to team ball and cares about winning will play 48 minutes a night, right? So by that logic, then against the Clippers:

Charlie Villanueva cared 33% about winning (if he cared more he wouldn’t have sprained his ankle).
Mo Williams cared 81%.
Michael Redd cared 80%.
Desmond Mason cared 78%.
Andrew Bogut cared 70%.
Royal Ivey, who cared 80%+ about winning while Redd was hurt, only cares 23% on Monday.
Yi Jianlian cared 56%, but would have cared less had Villanueva stayed in the game.
Michael Ruffin cared 23%, even after having a game ending play drawn up for him two days previously.
Charlie Bell, apparently still wishing he was on the Heat, cared 36%.
Jake Voskuhl cares 6%.
Bobby Simmons cares 10%.
Dan Gadzuric doesn’t care at all.
Awvee Storey doesn’t care.
Neither do David Noel or Ramon Sessions. Even if they are hurt.

Yet again, Larry Krystkowiak proves why college coaches don’t succeed in the pros. In college you can get away with the “you are with me or you aren’t” garbage for several reasons. The talent pool isn’t all that deep, so as long as you play your best couple of guys you can get away with benching someone else now and again to prove a point and not ruin the results on the court in the process. College coaches are in control of their players’ scholarships, and so could actually run off a player if he won’t get on point. College coaches are coaching kids who are growing into adults, so they can improve and change.

The pros are different. The players are adults. They already have maximized their talents, otherwise they wouldn’t be in the NBA in the first place. They have more money than the coaches. The coach is much easier to replace than the players. The players have all the power. The professional coach has to make the best out of what he has.

Instead Krystkowiak went to the media and dared his players to quit on him.

Not a smart thing to do when five of his players have contracts longer than his and three (including Bogut) players have contracts of the same length.

To be sure, some of this isn’t Krystkowiak’s fault. How many games could his coaching have cost them to this point in the season, five or six? That would still leave the Bucks at 25-27, in the sixth spot in the playoffs but only three games from falling out. This team simply isn’t that good.

It’s not Krystkowiak’s fault that the small forward position has been an open sore all season (for all of my harping about Villanueva playing the 3, it probably wouldn’t have worked very well). Or that he was given a roster with only four guards. We will never know the truth about playing time being promised to Yi, but that’s become another problem when Yi started playing so poorly in January.

For all of Krystkowiak’s blustering about “team ball” and eliminating personal agendas, it seems like Phoenix was doing okay while dealing with those sorts of problems involving their two best players (Stoudemire and Marion), running up a 36-15 record. Seems like it doesn’t matter just how self-centered a player is, so long as he is good.

And, by the way, are Larry Harris and Krystkowiak on the same page? During a season ticketholder function this past weekend, Harris said that he is committed to building with the nucleus of the team that is in place (specifically mentioning Redd, Bogut, Yi and Williams). Just two days later Krystkowiak is throwing out the blanket, “some of these guys don’t care” statement? Harris also said that he’s more interested in building through free agency rather than the draft, which leaves me shaking my head despondently. While what he meant was that he’s not interested in blowing up the team for draft picks and cap space, his statement also says that he still thinks this team, as currently constructed, is good. That’s wrong.

You should always be looking to build through the draft. Chasing free agents is fools gold. Take a look at the list of 2005 free agents – besides Michael Redd, Zaza Pachulia and DeSagna Diop, every single player who hit the open market has been a nonfactor or a bust (yes, including Bobby Simmons). Basically, free agents are such an expensive proposition that the odds that they will be worthwhile investments is extremely long.

The answer is the draft. They are going to have yet another high lottery pick this season, and hopefully Harris can make a deadline deal to turn Villanueva into another pick.

Because goodness knows this team isn’t going to win much the rest of the way. Krystkowiak made sure of that when he spouted off to the newspaper last night.

Now we know where that “Randolph to the Bucks” story came from. In the New York Post, Peter Vecsey is reporting that Knicks GM Glen Grunwald proposed a Randolph trade to Larry Harris, and Harris called the Blazers’ management to guage their opinion of Randolph. Someone in the Blazers front office leaked word that the Bucks were considering adding Randolph to the Portland Oregonian.

The proposed trade was Zach Randolph and Renaldo Balkman for Dan Gadzuric, Bobby Simmons and Charlie Villanueva.

Boy, that really shows how low Randolph’s reputation around the league is if the Bucks would turn that one down — and they are 100% correct to have done so.

It’s funny. The Knicks come calling with an offer of a young power forward who has a history of putting up great numbers and a young small forward who is an upgrade over Simmons or Mason in every way except shooting ability — athleticism, age, price tag, rebounding, defense … you name it. And all it would have cost them was one talent who the Bucks can’t figure out how to use, one backup center who is nailed to the bench, and one small forward who has been extremely underwhelming.

It sounds like a ridiculously unfair trade in favor of the Bucks. Which means there is something seriously wrong with the offer — what could make the Knicks that desperate to get rid of Randolph?

You can hear Larry Harris’ thought process; “You actually want to take Gadzuric and Simmons off of my hands? And you’ll give me a better small forward and a 26-year old who was 20/10 last season? That’s just too good to be true! Of course I’ll do …. Waaaaait a minute … What are you trying to pull here?”

Here’s what’s wrong with the trade: Zach Randolph simply isn’t nearly as good as his numbers indicate. Everybody already knows that Randolph is a horrible defender and a constant PR headache. His personality is already showing through in New York with battles with the press, Isiah Thomas, and the referees. Not to mention Portland has blossomed without him, while the Knicks are an even bigger train wreck than they were before. The only thing Randolph has going for him is his ability to stuff a box score.

And here’s the kicker — Randolph’s numbers aren’t even that good.

Randolph is sporting a 0.8236 IPM this season. That makes him the 28th best forward and while that is the highest ranking on the Knicks, it would place him fourth on the Bucks. Yes, he had a 0.9965 (8th best forward) last season, but that was a mirage, courtesy of something called usage rate.

Usage rate is the average number of team posessions per 40 minutes that end with something a player does — when he takes a shot, gets fouled, gets an assist, or turns it over. Players that shoot a ton have very high usage rates (Kobe Bryant uses about 30 posessions a game) so it is a stat that sort of measures how big of a gunner a player is.

Randolph was much praised for raising his scoring last season, averaging 26.5 pp/40, over a previous career high of 21.7. People also thought that he was a pretty efficient scorer, as he shot 46.7% from the floor and 81% from the line, both much improved over the previous two seasons.

However, his shooting percentage was artificially low the previous two seasons because he had and was recovering from microfracture knee surgery. Before the knee injury he had been a 50% shooter. His shooting percentages in 2006-07 weren’t that good, just good compared to when he was hurt.

So why the increase in scoring? Usage rate. As the only offensive option on Portland, he used 30 posessions/40 min last season, compared to a previous high of 25. He played about 40 mpg, so getting 5 more shots per game and converting them at 47% means an extra 5 more points per game. Bingo, there’s the whole scoring increase explained right there — he wasn’t playing better, he was shooting more.

Not surprisingly, this season his usage rate, shooting percentage, and scoring average is all down. His former team is better without him, his new team is worse with him. He’s a average player who gets his numbers at the expense of his teammates.

It’s a shame that the Bucks couldn’t pull off a deal to get Balkman, but at the cost of obtaining a millstone like Randolph, it’s not even close to worth it. Good thing Larry Harris passed on this deal.

John Canzano of the Portland Oregonian is reporting that “an NBA source” tells him that Zach Randolph is about to be traded to the Bucks. Come on, now. That’s ridiculous.

Besides not fitting on the Bucks, besides not being the type of player the Bucks need, besides being a major character risk and potential PR nightmare, Randolph’s salary makes it almost impossible to come up with a trade.

There isn’t much positive to say about Randolph’s game except that he scores and rebounds. He is a legitimate 20/10 guy, and there aren’t too many of those around. However, he is one of the worst defensive players in the league, an awful passer, and not much of a shot blocker.

And then there’s the Marbury factor — Randolph carried the Blazers to the number one pick in the draft last season, and this year somehow the Knicks are actually worse for having acquired him while Portland is suddenly the hottest team in the league. Randolph is the type of player who puts up big numbers but doesn’t help a team win all that much — you can get scoring from almost anyone, but it takes a really special player to give up as many points on defense as he does and still stay on the floor.

Of course when you bring up Randolph, there’s always the matter of his entourage — the “Hoops Family” made up of hometown friends and hangers-on and the variety of legal issues he has had in the past. Suffice it to say that Randolph is the sort of potential PR risk that Kohl would not want to be a part of.

Now, how exactly are the Bucks supposed to work a trade? Randolph makes $13 million this year and has four years remaining on his contract. Gadzuric and Simmons for Randolph works, but they also have 3-4 years left on their contracts. So why would either team make that trade? The Knicks already have about 5 small forwards so Simmons doesn’t really fit and Gadzuric is just a role player, and they would be stuck with those players for years. The Bucks wouldn’t save any money and would add a player at the position currently manned by Yi — who is the financial future of the franchise. Michael Redd straight up for Randolph? No freaking way. If you are trading for Randolph then you are suffering under the delusion that you are ready to win now. You wouldn’t then trade away your best perimeter player as well.

Maybe the Bucks are thinking they could move Yi to small forward. If that was true, then why hasn’t he played any small forward in the last few weeks with Mason out and Simmons ineffective?

This is a rumor that has no legs, no matter what Canzano’s “NBA source” has to say about it. It’s just a chance for him to make a snappy Laverne & Shirley reference in his column.

But if the Bucks do get Randolph, I’m not renewing my tickets next season.