The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

In some ways, it’s a little harsh to give it to a GM who has made some mistakes because that does come with the territory — if you take a risk there is a pretty good chance it will come back to bite you.

There is a consistent theme to Harris’ mistakes, and they point to his major failing that I will mention again and again: he has been way too optimistic about how good his team was. That’s the sort of thinking that leads a GM to discard second round picks in favor of projects and that’s what leads GM’s to mortgage the future on long term “win now, pay later” contracts.

Just because he’s made a couple of colossal errors doesn’t mean that he’s a bad GM or that he wont learn from his past errors, but these moves are the reasons why this team has not been able to improve beyond a .500 team under his watch, and it’s going to take a major leap from the personnel in place for this team to get much better.

Bad Moves

2005: Traded Desmond Mason and a 2006 first round pick to New Orleans for Jamaal Magloire. This trade looked great at the time but would have been a complete disaster had New Orleans not used the pick to select Cedric Simmons. Simmons projected as the sort of tough, rebounding, shot blocking power forward the Bucks would need (and would probably have taken had they kept the pick) but instead has turned out to be an unqualified bust. Other than that, this trade is a perfect example of Harris’ overarching optimism clouding his view of the reality of his team , he felt that the Ford/Redd/Simmons nucleus was ready to make a deep playoff run immediately, and didn’t want a slow rookie season from Andrew Bogut gumming that up. Unfortunately, he failed to realize two things: (1) the team wasn’t that good in the first place and (2) neither was Magloire. It turns out that a slow recovery from a broken finger wasn’t what has dragged Magloire’s play down from “All-Star” level two seasons previously; it was that he had had a fluke good season in a horrible conference with no good centers in it. So all the Bucks got out of the deal was 2 years without Desmond Mason screwing up the offense, 1 season of Bogut’s development being screwed up by playing out of position, and one 8th seed playoff trip. I originally had this trade listed as good because it seemed so benign, but I’ve moved it to bad simply because they may not have taken Cedric Simmons with the pick, or may have pulled off some ridiculous, convoluted trade involving TJ Ford and the pick that would have netted them LaMarcus Aldridge or something like that. But we’ll never know, because despite having Bogut and Gadzuric and the chance to sign Pachulia for $4 million, Larry Harris had to have another center.

2006: Drafted David Noel (2 years/$1 million). I normally wouldn’t crack on a second round pick, but this one deserves it because it was such a wasted opportunity. Harris’ optimism about the team’s prospects got in the way as instead of trying to find a player who could help them immediately he went for a guy who might be good in 3-4 years (which sucks since he’s only signed for two). Noel busted onto the scene at the NBA Draft combine when he graded out as the best athlete there, which if you think about it is really meaningless. He may have played on big-time college teams at North Carolina, but was only good enough to start for one year. Now, before the draft I remember hearing rumors that the Bucks had promised the pick to Craig Smith, which would have been great had he not gotten taken before they got the chance. However, considering Smith shows that Harris wasn’t scared of taking an undersized power forward, and there was another one out there whose college numbers had all the math guys screaming “steal of the draft”: Paul Millsap. A stud at Louisiana Tech who led the NCAA in rebounding for 3 years, Millsap has become a 20 minute per game energy machine for Utah. He’s a dirty work player who shoots a high percentage, rebounds like a maniac and plays solid defense. He’s the sort of difference maker that would mean an extra 3-4 wins a year for the Bucks, and there’s no doubt that he’s the sort of player the Bucks needed to add at the time. But Harris took the guy who did a really good shuttle run.

Very Bad Moves

2005: Bucks do not match Hawks offer sheet for Zaza Pachulia (4 years/$16 million). Harris couldn’t match this offer because it came after he had already wasted his backup center cash on Dan Gazduric (see “Horrendous Move”). The problem isn’t so much that the Bucks kept Gadzuric and let Pachulia go (at the time, Gadzuric looked like the better player), but that the botched negotiations with Gadzuric cost the Bucks a ton of money and two extra years on the contract (to say nothing of losing the better player) and it was all to sign a career backup, considering that Andrew Bogut had just been selected. Meanwhile, Pachulia has played pretty well for Atlanta.

2006: Traded a 2007 second round pick to San Antonio for Damir Markota. I don’t have quite as much a problem with the fact that the Bucks did this trade as I do with the way it was handled. Harris had done well scouring Europe to that point (Bell, Ilyasova) so if he felt Markota had potential, why not take the shot. First of all, the Bucks never even had to bring Markota to the NBA in the first place. They could have let him stay in Europe, get a little older, and develop his game. Once they did bring him in, why let him stagnate on the bench? Why not use him? Why not send him to the D-League? It worked pretty well for Ilyasova the year before. It was just unreal , last season got worse and worse, the pick the Bucks owed to San Antonio got better and better, and Markota still sat on the bench, even in March and April when the season was completely lost. Since he was released this year, it appears to me that Harris figured out early on that he had really screwed this one up — Markota wasn’t that good in the first place and sending him to the NBDL wouldn’t fix that. Adding to the problem, Markota was supposedly 19 years old last year, but was apparently regularly seen in Water Street bars after games. Seems that he used the same birth certificate-fixer as Yi and Ilyasova. Meanwhile, San Antonio wasted the 2007 pick on Marcus Williams, who they cut in training camp. But the Bucks still are looking for that backup power forward who can rebound, and two of the three picks after the Bucks should have picked this year were Glen “Big Baby” Davis (currently seeing important minutes on Boston) and Jemareo Davidson (Charlotte’s 4th best player this year).

Very Very Bad Moves

2005: Traded a 2006 second round pick to Cleveland for Jiri Welsch. This one just didn’t make any sense at all. I mean, everybody already knew that Welsch sucked. He was 25 and on his third team already. Cleveland was being laughed at to no end for blowing a first round pick to bring him in as a designated shooter, only to find that he couldn’t shoot , he was white and slow, so everyone must have just assumed he could shoot. Why would Harris let the Cavs out of their gaffe? I don’t understand the logic of; “if Cleveland gave up a first rounder for him, then we are getting a bargain by only giving up a second rounder for him.” If he’s bad, he’s bad, right? It’s the same sort of logic as; “Hey, the 49ers were going to take Aaron Rodgers #1 overall, but now he’s available at #20, so he must be a great pick here!” If he’s a bust then it doesn’t matter where he was picked , he’s still a bust! Well, once again it must be an indication of Harris’ overwhelming optimism about his team , assuming that they were ready for a deep playoff run, and thus needed a veteran “designated shooter”. Or another Eastern European for Toni Kukoc to talk to. Meanwhile, Cleveland was able to spin that second round pick into another second rounder (actually getting their own pick back that they had traded in another deal) and used it on Daniel Gibson. Nice job, Harris , you took a problem off the hands of a division rival and gave them their starting point guard two years later to boot. Meanwhile, that Bucks second rounder was used by Orlando on Lior Eliyahu, while the next three picks were Alexander Johnson (serviceable backup power forward), Dee Brown (a favorite of mine who wound up getting a tryout with the Bucks this year) and , look! There’s that name again! , Paul Millsap.

2007: Matched Miami offer to Charlie Bell (5 years/$18 million). For a long time, I’ve been meaning to write a post about why matching this contract was really, really, really dumb, but with Bell’s shooting percentage getting closer and closer to 20%, that just seemed like piling on. Here’s the thing , Bell is supposed to back up your best player (Redd) and point guard who just signed a 6 year contract (Mo). He’s never going to start unless something goes seriously wrong. So why would you ever sign a backup , not a 6th man of the year type, a generic backup , to a 5 year deal? Especially one that will pay him until he’s 33, and well past his prime? Don’t get me wrong , Bell played so hard and so much the last two years that there is nothing wrong with him getting paid , even overpaid , for a year or two. But why for five? If Harris found him for the minimum, why wouldn’t he be able to do a little work and find someone else cheap and short-term who would give 85% of Bell’s production? Who knows when the Bucks might actually keep a second rounder and use it on a big guard who can play a little “¦ Ramon Sessions, for example. Never mind that Bell didn’t want to be in Milwaukee anyway , let him go! It’s a FIVE year commitment to him! Until he’s 33 years old! It is guaranteed that you will be able to find another adequate backup guard one way or another! Matching this deal was so incredibly dumb that I wonder if Harris matched the offer out of spite for Bell’s trying to talk his way out of town. And my old posts prove that I felt that way long before Bell came out shooting a scorching 25% this year. Hopefully they can trade him once the restrictions on his contract end (in a couple of weeks).

Horrendous, Colossally Bad Move

2005: Signed Dan Gadzuric (6 years/$36 million). Resigning Danny G wasn’t the worst idea in the world, but the way Harris handled it was. Gadzuric had improved in each of his first three years in the league (and actually played pretty well in the first season of the new contract) but he was already 27 years old in 2005, so he wouldn’t continue improving that much. The thing about the whole negotiations is that Gadzuric , like Pachulia at the same time , was a restricted free agent and the Bucks had Bird rights on both of them. Harris could have waited, let Gadzuric and Pachulia’s agents troll for offers from other teams, and then chosen whether to match whatever came in. Instead, he ran out and offered Gadzuric a 6 year deal. Why do that? Why not wait and see if another team felt he was worth the full midlevel? Harris had already drafted Bogut, so just like the Bell signing, Gadzuric was never, ever going to be a starter under this contract. But he’s getting paid like one , he actually will be making more than Bogut until after next season. Now they are going to be paying him until he is 33, and since his game has completely fallen apart they are stuck with him. It just absolutely blows my mind that Harris would offer Gadzuric that sort of money and a contract of that duration to be a backup without even seeing what the rest of the market would bear for him. Would anyone else really have offererd Gadzuric a full-midlevel deal? Even if they had another team could have only offered him 5 years! It just doesn’t make any sense, and it wound up costing them Pachulia , a player with a cheaper, shorter term contract who wound up being a significantly better player. And by saving a few million on Gadzuric they could have matched Pachulia, not bothered with Magloire, and kept their 2006 first round pick.

Next: The Move That Cannot Be Categorized

Now that Larry Harris has been the GM of the Bucks for 4 full seasons, how good of a job has he done? He has built a young team with little future flexibility, as 8 players are under contract for between 3-6 years and nearly all of them should still be at or near their prime for the entire duration of their contracts. To his credit, Harris has not been afraid to make bold moves but one problem with locking up players to long contracts is that you are bound to reach some bad deals — and his bad ones have had major implications for the future of the franchise.

I think that the problem with Harris that he is either way too optimistic for his job or such a huckster salesman that he believes his own spiel too much. One of the most difficult things for a talent evaluator to do is to bring a guy in and then later admit he has made a mistake, which is something that Harris has had a major problem with. Before last season he was telling everyone who would listen that his team wasn’t just ready to make the playoffs, but to win a round; and even after the team had completely fallen apart he was still making moves as if he intended to make a playoff run once the team got healthy (such as by adding Earl Boykins and risking that Boykins would not opt-out of his contract).

However, this seasons results have shown that last years’ team was nowhere near a playoff contender in the first place. Is this young team a contender down the road? As currently composed, I’m not sure it is. It should get better, but there is no more cap flexibility for the foreseeable future so remaking the roster will get more and more difficult. The only way this team leaps into the Eastern Conference elite is if Yi becomes a star, and it’s still very difficult to predict that.

Many people often claim that Harris has no real power, and all the major decisions are actually made by Herb Kohl. While that may be true to a certain extent, any GM has to work within ownerships parameters, and no matter what the owner wants he does take advice from the GM. So I am going to leave Kohl’s influence out of my analysis, and also not discuss the coaching changes, which clearly were a result of past Herb Kohl relationships.

When Larry Harris was named GM on July 1, 2003, he inherited a complete mess. Ernie Grunfeld and George Karl had completely botched the franchise with a series of “lets win now”/”screw it, I’m outta here” moves that left the Bucks with almost no good, young talent except for Michael Redd and the newly drafted TJ Ford. They had nothing to show for Glenn Robinson, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell except for Toni Kukoc, Joe Smith and Ford (good thing since they threw their own 2003 pick away on Gary Payton).

Much is unfairly made of the Bucks drafting Dirk Nowitzki and trading him, but that’s not fair since it was a pre-arranged draft day trade , if the Bucks hadn’t done that deal then Dallas would have simply taken Nowitzki themselves at #5. But an even worse crime had already been inflicted on the Bucks by Grunfeld and Karl.

In 2001, Grunfeld had traded the Bucks’ 2004 first round pick for nothing in order to clear cap space to sign Anthony Mason. This disastrous signing of an aging, overrated player with a massive attitude problem both tore the team apart and cost them the #17 pick in the 2004 draft, which turned out to be Josh Smith. That’s a bigger crime than the Nowitzki deal. You think the Bucks could use a 6’10″ small forward who is averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks a game? No? Me neither.

Over the next four days I am going to analyze every major player transaction he has made during his tenure. Today I talk about the okay ones (ranging from “Good” to “Bad, but with an asterisk”. Tomorrow will be the seven “Great” to “Very Good” moves. Then the seven “Bad” to “Horrendous”, and, finally, “The One Move That Cannot Be Labeled”.)

Good Moves:

2005: Drafted Ersan Ilyasova. The young Turk was touted as a lottery pick before an ankle injury and rumors that he was in fact an older Uzbek torpedoed his draft stock. The Bucks have been searching for a big small forward ever since they didn’t get the chance to draft Josh Smith, and for a while it looked like they found one. Ilyasova shone in the NBDL his first year and was MVP of the Under-20 World Championships in the summer of 2006. Of course, the fact that he may have been 23 at the time may have something to do with him shining at that level, and his 2006 NBA campaign made him look like he never was an NBA athlete to begin with. He was still a reasonable risk, and Harris’ track record with European players was pretty good up to that point.

2005: Resigned Michael Redd (6 years/$95 million). I put this signing only in the “good” category because any idiot could have offered Redd the max to stay in Milwuakee and of course Redd’s agent (who gets a commission) would counsel him to take the extra money the Bucks could offer him over Cleveland’s deal. However, Harris’ salesman skills may have really shone in this free agency pursuit. Being second banana on a great team worked out just fine for Scottie Pippen, so I’m sure the opportunity to sign with his hometown team and run as LeBron’s wingman was tempting. I’m sure that Harris leaned on Redd pretty hard to show him that by leaving he’d be completely screwing the team that both gave him his big chance and dismantled its roster for him to shine. I’m sure at the time Redd was excited about the chance to lead his own team, but somehow I think that these days he keeps a pile of $100 bills on his nightstand to smack himself in the face with when he thinks about how he could have been in the finals last year.

2006: Signed Lynn Greer (2 yrs/1.5 million). Another European find, he had been a big scorer in Europe ever since the NBA realized that the best product John Chaney had ever put in the NBA was Mark Macon and took a pass on Greer. Unfortunately, Greer’s stay in Milwaukee was tragic, as his fiancée fell ill and passed away during the season. As a result, Greer missed time and never was used until well after the season was wasted. Greer would have been an able replacement for Charlie Bell this year, but after resigning Bell, Harris did Greer a favor and let him out of the final season of his contract in order to return to a better offer in Europe. It was still a good signing, just one that didn’t work out.

2006: Traded Jamaal Magloire for Steve Blake, Brian Skinner and Ha Seung Jin. Credit Harris for realizing that Magloire’s game had turned to crap and he had virtually no value whatsoever. Conventional wisdom would say that Magloire could be traded for a draft pick at the trade deadline, but Harris probably got as much back as he ever would, considering that Portland wasn’t able to move Magloire either. Besides, getting a pick back would probably have required the Bucks to take on some sort of longer salary commitment, which would have hurt them this past offseason.

2006: Traded Steve Blake for Earl Boykins and Julius Hodge. Given the way the Bucks season was going, this was a perfect trade for them. Boykins is the type of player that can sell some tickets, at 5’3″ he’s an inspirational story, and can score a little, but he won’t help you win at all. Because of his height there’s simply no way he can come close to pulling his weight defensively, and his shoot-first mentality leaves his teammates more interested in strangling him than running the offense. Not a bad way to dump games. Fortunately for the Bucks, Boykins opted out of his contract (as expected), saving Milwaukee $3 million and pretty much making it possible to sign Desmond Mason. However, as what must come as a surprise to Boykins, he is still unemployed. Something is wrong with Julius Hodge , you would think that he’d be the perfect guy to have as the backup to Michael Redd for 10 minutes a game (6’7″, can defend a little) but something about him caused the Bucks to release him as quickly as they could.

2007: Resigned Mo Williams (6 years/$52 million). Good move to keep Mo, as he is still only 24 years old and will be a part of the team as he reaches his prime and despite Mo being the only reasonable option for the Bucks, Harris kept the contract offer from getting out of hand. Williams has built himself up into one of the better point guards in the league, and his career trajectory to this point actually looks a lot like Chauncey Billups’. For that to continue, Mo will have to develop two major skills that he currently does not have , namely, becoming a lockdown defender and a foul-drawing machine. However, those were both knocks on Billups as well (as was the “point guard who does nothing but shoot” label), and point guards have a history of peaking later in their careers than other players. Mo is smaller than Billups, so he will probably never reach those All-Star heights, but still this contract should provide fair value with a 5-10% chance of being a real bargain by the time it ends.

2007: Signed Desmond Mason (2 years/$10 million). My feelings about Mason’s game are well documented (way too inefficient offensively to help, overrated defensively, good hustle guy who should get 10-15 minutes a game) but this was a good signing, especially since it has become apparent that Bobby Simmons is not and may never again be the same player he once was. Harris got a great insurance policy at small forward in Mason , a great character guy who won’t complain should he not play much, but if he does, at least he never gives less than maximum effort. There weren’t really any better options available in free agency for that role, and while $5 million a year is a bit much that doesn’t bother me since the contract is only for two years.

2007: Drafted Ramon Sessions. He sure has played well in the NBDL.

Bad Moves (but with an asterisk)

2005: Signed Bobby Simmons (5 years/$47 million). Because of Simmons’ injury problems this deal hasn’t worked out, and it’s starting to look like Simmons might not be the same player any more after surgery on his feet. That’s a tough injury for a basketball player to recover from, and it’s a shame. In 2004 Simmons was the NBA’s most improved player, an award that historically hasn’t meant much, but the 4 previous winners were Zach Randolph, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal and Gilbert Arenas. Heady stuff. There’s no doubt that the Bucks overpaid for Simmons from the get-go, but Harris was under a lot of time pressure to get the deal done. They signed Simmons in the period between reaching an oral agreement with Michael Redd and actually signing him, so they technically used their cap space to get Simmons and then went over the cap to sign their own guy (Redd). Obviously it’s easy to look back now and say they should have offered Simmons’ contract to Gerald Wallace, but they didn’t have the time to sign the RFA Wallace and wait to see if Charlotte would match, and if they did then the Simmons opportunity might have been gone. Also, Harris could have done much, much worse as the rest of the free agent class of 2005 wound up being a complete disaster. It’s too bad that the Simmons signing will probably wind up being a bust, because it was the right move at the time.

2006: Traded TJ Ford for Charlie Villanueva. This is a hard trade to categorize as good or bad. It hasn’t worked out, but that’s not really anybody’s fault. Ford was a long way from being a good player after 3 seasons with the Bucks, but he only had played 1 ½ years due to injury. Mo was cheaper and an equally good player, so it only made sense to trade him, right? But it often takes point guards a long time to reach their potential, and while Ford busted out last season, it seemed to me that the improvement came more from being in a better situation for his game than actually improving. But then this year he definitely improved , and suddenly everybody holds their breath as the neck problem crops up. Clearly Ford will have to change his game to take less contact, but will he be as effective once he does? Charlie Villanueva is even more difficult to figure out. Such a tantalizing talent, but does he play physically enough to be a starting power forward? Is his head in the game consistently enough to be effective off the bench? I’m convinced that TJ has become a better player than he would have in the Bucks system (especially now that Krystkowiak has slowed the game down so much this season) and that ultimately, Charlie V will probably be playing somewhere else. What the Bucks get in that deal will be the final determinant of the quality of this trade.

A very quiet trade passed through last week: New Orleans traded Cedric Simmons to Cleveland for David Wesley and cash. Why is this deal of interest to Bucks fans? It closes the book on the Magloire-Mason trade, and the winner by a nose is Milwaukee.

Lets look back on that deal. The Bucks thought they were getting a solid player in Magloire, but were pretty much wrong. However the trade was necessary for them; Bogut was a rookie and the Bucks truly couldn’t assume they knew what he could deliver, so adding a center (for a player whose role would have been diminished with the addition of Bobby Simmons) made sense. Magloire pretty much sucked in every way but one — he could really rebound. The combination of him and Bogut at power forward (who is a good rebounder for a forward but only an okay one for a center) had Milwaukee actually leading the league in rebound margin for a while and helped propel them to the playoffs.

It can be argued that having Magloire around hurt Bogut’s development, but that can’t really be proven. It certainly didn’t keep Bogut off the floor, and his high-post role in the offense remained pretty much the same last year.

The Hornets thought they were getting a solid player in Mason who would help them sell tickets in their temporary Oklahoma City home. They were also wrong on both counts. If Bucks fans thought Magloire was bad in Milwaukee try Mason’s contribution — career lows in points, awful shooting percentages, more turnovers, playing his way out of the starting lineup by midseason …. and this was with Chris Paul passing to him! Meanwhile, the fan support was so good in Oklahoma City that they didn’t need the former Cowboy to help sell tickets.

Last season the Bucks flipped Magloire into Brian Skinner, Steve Blake, Ha Seung Jin, and later Earl Boykins. Mason had another lousy season and both teams underachieved badly.

But the real problem for Bucks fans was the fact that they included their 2006 first round pick in the deal, which turned into Cedric Simmons (that’s not to say that the Bucks wouldn’t have taken someone else, but I’m just talking about what has actually happened). Should Simmons have become a solid player then this trade would have been a big win for New Orleans, but Simmons was awful.

It’s not really that big a deal that a 21 year old rookie doesn’t play much and has a poor start to his career, but the two stats I like to use to judge young players who haven’t played much scream “bust” in Simmons’ case: rebound rate and free throw percentage. I feel that rebounders are born, not made, and if you shoot free throws well then you have the ability to improve on your shooting overall. Well, Simmons averaged 8 rebounds per 40 minutes (pretty blah) and shot 48% on free throws (yikes!). And now New Orleans has dumped him for a player who is going to retire.

The biggest thing here, though, is that Simmons only had one more guaranteed season on his contract — if the Hornets thought he had any potential then they could have just stashed him on the bench (or in the NBDL) to see what they have or if he could be a part of a better trade later on. But instead they literally dumped him for nothing! A team getting rid of a young player that fast says one thing to me … bad attitude. That’s not just accepting that he was a bad pick, that is separating him from your locker room (that’s just speculation on my part, by the way).

So the final score of the Mason-Magloire trade is:

Bucks – 1 playoff appearance, no players

Hornets – 0 playoff appearances, no players

Your winner: Milwaukee (but just barely)

UPDATE: I looked around on the internet for references to Cedric Simmons’ attitude and couldn’t find anything but positive stories. DraftExpress.com listed his attitude and work ethic as a strength, and other stories mentioned him being a no-nonsense guy. There must be some reason why the Hornets dumped him, but immediately thinking he was a head case may be a rather unpleasant leap on my part.

I’ve been getting emails left and right asking me how I felt about the Bucks chances this year. In fact, someone even stopped me at a keg party last weekend and wanted to know what I thought. The fact that drunk people are asking about the Bucks I think is a good sign that people care about this team and that they honestly are confused about this team (because drunk people generally know everything). Instead of answering those individually I thought I would break it down on here player-by-player.

Let me say something before I start. Lots of people want to say they were terrible for all of last year. Not true, without Bobby Simmons ever playing a game, they were struggled out the gate and then put it together until Michael Redd got hurt on that meaningless dunk. Everything went downhill from there.

Charlie Bell: I’m glad he’s back, we didn’t really have anyone to replace him. I don’t think he’s as great as a defender as everyone says he is, but he’s definitely solid on offense in small doses. He provides a welcome punch off the bench to spell Redd or Mo. His contract is too long, but that’s what happens with restricted free agency. He’s going to produce worse numbers than he did last year, but play a more important role off the bench. Don’t look to see the Bucks use that three-guard lineup much anymore with the return of Bobby Simmons, a healthy Charlie V, and the addition of Yi.

Andrew Bogut: He’s been getting knocked a lot for not contributing enough in terms of numbers, but I don’t think he’s been asked to do a lot. The team was pretty good when he got here. If he was an Atlanta Hawk his numbers would be a lot better right now. That said, I think he improved last year without Jamaal Magloire taking up space. He took the summer off for the first time in a long-time and I hope that will help ease the problem of him looking so tired running up and down the floor late in the season. I think he’s building a hunger for winning and I think he’s going to be a better rebounder and defender this year, but I don’t expect to see huge improvements.

Dan Gadzuric: Most dissappointing player. He hasn’t really gotten any better. He still looks nervous out there with his out of control style. Apparently he doesn’t have any trade value because of his huge contract. At one time looked like he had a huge upside, now he just looks lost on the end of the bench. Could be a great cheer leader in close games. Worst signing of Larry Harris’s tenure.

Royal Ivey: I don’t expect him to play a lot. Upside, he gets some garbage minutes and shows some promise. At least he’s cheap. Downside? He plays a lot because someone is hurt.

Yi Jianlian: Upside? He’s good. Downside? He’s bad. No one really knows what to expect, but I would imagine he’ll look better than he did in those summer league games because he won’t be getting double-teamed and will be surrounded by better players.

Desmond Mason: Understanding the fact that a Ruben Patterson implosion would have been much more likely with a reduced playing time role with the addition of Yi and return of Simmons, I think it was a good move to swap him for D-Mase. I see Desmond being brought off the bench to stop 2′s and 3′s that Redd and Simmons are having trouble containing. Expect to see him score a lot in up-tempo, transition games and put up nothing for numbers in half-court offense games. I consider him a fair swap for Patterson, whose numbers only looked so good because there wasn’t anyone else around to put anything up because of injuries. As long as he brings energy and hustle I’ll be happy.

David Noel: Wouldn’t be shocked to see him spending time in the NBDL putting up good numbers as long as everyone else is healthy. He showed flashes of brilliance last year, but looked lost at other times. I think he’s a diamond in the rough find, that’s going to take another year to get polished.

Michael Redd: Lots of points, lots and lots of points. He needs to improve on his desire and making that desire wear off on teammates, but I don’t think he is far from that.

Michael Ruffin: He’s on the team purely for rebounding. Brett thinks he’s pretty terrible on offense, so my money is on Samaki Walker getting more playing time.

Ramon Sessions: They would be wise to put him in the D-League and let him develop, people from Nevada have been emailing me all summer telling me of his potential and if they’re even 50% right about what they say I think he could develop. You hopefully won’t see him on the court for the Bucks a whole lot this year (which means we have a healthy team).

Bobby Simmons: The most misunderstood of all Bucks players to put on a jersey in recent years. At the start of the 2005-2006 campaign, he was attacking the basket, the team was winning close games, he was playing good defense, and he looked worth every penny. Then he got some weird foot/ankle/joint injury, nagged him, he quit attacking the basket, and the Bucks quit winning close games. That problem led him to having surgery and missing all of last year. If he were to count as an off-season pickup, he’s easily the best one we’ve got and is going to have the biggest impact of any player that didn’t wear a jersey last year. I fully expect him to earn his keep this year, unlike everyone else in Milwaukee.

Awvee Storey: I don’t expect him to play a whole lot since I see D-Mase stealing any minutes that would be his. He gets the award for “Player Most Likely To Be Released When Herb Kohl Gets Mad”. As long as he doesn’t punch Yi in the face and cause an international incident, I’ll be happy.

Charlie Villanueva: He better still have that huge chip on his shoulder that he supposedly had at the start of last year. He seemed to drift all too often last year, most likely due to his nagging injury. When he’s playing the 4 (and I don’t know where he’ll line up with Yi on the court quite yet), he better find himself closer to the basket unless we’re spacing for Bogut to go 1-on-1 or isolating for someone to drive. Jury is still out on him, but if I had to make the TJ Ford trade again I would still do it.

Jake Voskuhl: I don’t know a whole lot about his game, but I dearly hope he has some drive to rebound because we’re going to need it. He’ll get more minutes than Gadzuric, I have no doubt. In fact, I think his signing signifies the end of any faith in Danny G getting better. Look for him to get key minutes in games when Bogut gets in early foul trouble. I don’t think anyone is looking for him to score, and that’s a good thing.

Samaki Walker: He’ll be better than Michael Ruffin, but they’ll both spend their fair share of time on the inactive list. Injury insurance as far as I can tell, better than Jared Reiner last year.

Maurice (Mo) Williams: I think he’ll be better this year than he was last. Everyone keeps talking about him and using the term “All Star”, either that he is or isn’t, but that’s irrelevant as far as I’m concerned. All Star numbers aren’t needed from Mo. Solid, consistent production, fewer turnovers, and a drop in forced shots are what will make him worth his money. He might not make as many stupid mistakes now that he’s not pushing things in a contract year, but he might not play as hard on defense either, which would be hard to swallow for an already bad Bucks defense

Earl Boykins: Isn’t on the team anymore, but a lot of magazines and online articles are missing this fact so I thought you might want to know the truth. Brian Skinner isn’t a Buck anymore either.

Larry Krystkowiak: He’s a huge improvement over Terry Stotts, who never should have been the head coach. Larry got into an actual fight with Shaq, Terry Stotts probably wouldn’t fight the ball boy. I’m not advocating tall men throwing down, but I think it speaks volume about the intensity of the two. Terry Stotts wasn’t to blame for last year’s failure, but might as well fix the steering wheel while the car is in the shop.

Larry Harris: I think he’s done a pretty good job building the team. He’s eliminated all of his mistakes other than Dan Gadzuric. Jamaal Magloire? Gone. Steve Blake? Gone. Earl Boykins? Gone. Yi’s play will going to be the make or break point in his time with the team, but there wasn’t anyone I really would have drafted ahead of him. To his credit he managed the Yi stalemate, talked down Charlie Bell, and made Desmond Mason like him again, and kept Ruben Patterson out of any trouble. I think he would have looked pretty smart last year had everyone stayed healthy, and I think he made a lot of moves this year that should help improve the team. I still think the team needs a bruiser down-low to push the team into true contention. My only complaint is that he seems to spend too much time tinkering with small roster moves for players who might never play a minute, but I guess you have to do something to keep busy.

I would pleased if they made it into second round of the playoffs. I would say they’re playing to expectations if they exited after winning a few games in the first round of the playoffs. If they don’t make the playoffs or are more than a game away from getting that 8th seed? I would say they’re underachieving.

Health is obviously the greatest concern for this team, as last year proved. If Bogut develops into a great post player, I think they’re instantly a contender in the East. If he doesn’t they’re probably stuck in the same mediocrity they’ve endured for the past couple of years.

NOTE: Brett probably thinks something completely different, and he uses numbers to back up his claims. Don’t trust solely what I say.

Jamaal Magloire, who I love to hate, is telling people that he brings “toughness” to the New Jersey Nets that he doesn’t see often in the NBA. Apparently that year with Darius Miles and Zach Randolph in Portland got to his head, the Trail Blazers should trade Miles before he messes with Greg Oden’s head.

Jamaal Magloire should not be allowed to arrive with him any team and talk about improving them after that terrible post-combination he created with him and then rookie Andrew Bogut.