The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

I don’t know if John Hammond is paying attention, but after the Yi/RJ trade and the draft, the Bucks’ roster has some pretty big holes. Take a look and see if you know what I mean:

PG: Mo Williams, Ramon Sessions
SG: Michael Redd, Charlie Bell
SF: Richard Jefferson, Desmond Mason, Joe Alexander, Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute, Awvee Storey*
PF: Charlie Villanueva
C: Andrew Bogut, Dan Gadzuric
(*I’m not sure if Storey’s deal is guaranteed)

Am I the only person who thinks that a 12-man roster with three guys taller than 6′8″ is a problem? Especially when one of them is Danny G?

It’s not as though trading for a starting caliber power forward is going to be easy. There simply aren’t many of them out there. I wanted to write one of my “12 potential trades that won’t happen” columns, but it was impossible. I couldn’t really find any decent power forwards who the Bucks would want and who their current teams would be willing to give up. Mo Williams for Udonis Haslem? Mo and Charlie V for Chris Wilcox and Luke Ridnour? Gadzuric, Villanueva, Mason and a #1 for Elton Brand? Those are silly ideas. You could probably get a stopgap power forward from Sacramento, but do you really want one of Kenny Thomas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore or Shelden Williams?

Maybe Hammond is hoping that the Detroit fire sale starts soon. Mo, Mason and a #1 for Chauncey Billups and Amir Johnson or Mason, Villanueva and Bell for Rasheed Wallace would work but neither of those ideas sound like something that Joe Dumars would do.

The more I think about it, the more I think Hammond was taken by surprise in this draft. The Yi-Jefferson trade came out of nowhere, so it probably happened so close to the draft that the Bucks didn’t have much of a plan “B” beyond taking Alexander. Most likely, they made the Yi trade hoping that one of Kevin Love, Eric Gordon or Russell Westbrook would slide to them; but when the player to slip was Jerryd Bayless (who was supposed to go #4 or #6, so the Bucks had not worked him out) they didn’t know what to do.

So what does it all mean? Will Hammond be able to pull off something incredible or are we going to try the Bogut-Villanueva combo again, and hope that it works this time? I’m not really sure.

If the best they can do is sign Brian Skinner to be Villanueva’s backup, I’m going to be mighty upset.

Some other things of note:

Don’t forget that Ersan Ilyasova is still Bucks property. There’s no way they sign him and add him to this years’ roster since they don’t need a small forward, but he could be signed and traded.

Also, the final thing I am going to mention about Richard Hendrix (unless he turns out to be really good or gets released in training camp): according to Draft Express, his draft stock fell because of a knee injury that was uncovered at the predraft camp (despite his apparently playing well there). Draft Express points out that not only were Hendrix’s college numbers almost identical to Carlos Boozer’s, but Boozer also fell in the draft for the same reason.

If you are interested in the NBA Draft, I suggest donating to Draft Express. By making a donation, you will be able to view the site with no pop-up ads, which is well worth it.

Now that Larry Harris has been the GM of the Bucks for 4 full seasons, how good of a job has he done? He has built a young team with little future flexibility, as 8 players are under contract for between 3-6 years and nearly all of them should still be at or near their prime for the entire duration of their contracts. To his credit, Harris has not been afraid to make bold moves but one problem with locking up players to long contracts is that you are bound to reach some bad deals — and his bad ones have had major implications for the future of the franchise.

I think that the problem with Harris that he is either way too optimistic for his job or such a huckster salesman that he believes his own spiel too much. One of the most difficult things for a talent evaluator to do is to bring a guy in and then later admit he has made a mistake, which is something that Harris has had a major problem with. Before last season he was telling everyone who would listen that his team wasn’t just ready to make the playoffs, but to win a round; and even after the team had completely fallen apart he was still making moves as if he intended to make a playoff run once the team got healthy (such as by adding Earl Boykins and risking that Boykins would not opt-out of his contract).

However, this seasons results have shown that last years’ team was nowhere near a playoff contender in the first place. Is this young team a contender down the road? As currently composed, I’m not sure it is. It should get better, but there is no more cap flexibility for the foreseeable future so remaking the roster will get more and more difficult. The only way this team leaps into the Eastern Conference elite is if Yi becomes a star, and it’s still very difficult to predict that.

Many people often claim that Harris has no real power, and all the major decisions are actually made by Herb Kohl. While that may be true to a certain extent, any GM has to work within ownerships parameters, and no matter what the owner wants he does take advice from the GM. So I am going to leave Kohl’s influence out of my analysis, and also not discuss the coaching changes, which clearly were a result of past Herb Kohl relationships.

When Larry Harris was named GM on July 1, 2003, he inherited a complete mess. Ernie Grunfeld and George Karl had completely botched the franchise with a series of “lets win now�/�screw it, I’m outta here� moves that left the Bucks with almost no good, young talent except for Michael Redd and the newly drafted TJ Ford. They had nothing to show for Glenn Robinson, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell except for Toni Kukoc, Joe Smith and Ford (good thing since they threw their own 2003 pick away on Gary Payton).

Much is unfairly made of the Bucks drafting Dirk Nowitzki and trading him, but that’s not fair since it was a pre-arranged draft day trade – if the Bucks hadn’t done that deal then Dallas would have simply taken Nowitzki themselves at #5. But an even worse crime had already been inflicted on the Bucks by Grunfeld and Karl.

In 2001, Grunfeld had traded the Bucks’ 2004 first round pick for nothing in order to clear cap space to sign Anthony Mason. This disastrous signing of an aging, overrated player with a massive attitude problem both tore the team apart and cost them the #17 pick in the 2004 draft, which turned out to be Josh Smith. That’s a bigger crime than the Nowitzki deal. You think the Bucks could use a 6’10� small forward who is averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks a game? No? Me neither.

Over the next four days I am going to analyze every major player transaction he has made during his tenure. Today I talk about the okay ones (ranging from “Good” to “Bad, but with an asterisk”. Tomorrow will be the seven “Great” to “Very Good” moves. Then the seven “Bad” to “Horrendous”, and, finally, “The One Move That Cannot Be Labeled”.)

Good Moves:

2005: Drafted Ersan Ilyasova. The young Turk was touted as a lottery pick before an ankle injury and rumors that he was in fact an older Uzbek torpedoed his draft stock. The Bucks have been searching for a big small forward ever since they didn’t get the chance to draft Josh Smith, and for a while it looked like they found one. Ilyasova shone in the NBDL his first year and was MVP of the Under-20 World Championships in the summer of 2006. Of course, the fact that he may have been 23 at the time may have something to do with him shining at that level, and his 2006 NBA campaign made him look like he never was an NBA athlete to begin with. He was still a reasonable risk, and Harris’ track record with European players was pretty good up to that point.

2005: Resigned Michael Redd (6 years/$95 million). I put this signing only in the “good� category because any idiot could have offered Redd the max to stay in Milwuakee and of course Redd’s agent (who gets a commission) would counsel him to take the extra money the Bucks could offer him over Cleveland’s deal. However, Harris’ salesman skills may have really shone in this free agency pursuit. Being second banana on a great team worked out just fine for Scottie Pippen, so I’m sure the opportunity to sign with his hometown team and run as LeBron’s wingman was tempting. I’m sure that Harris leaned on Redd pretty hard to show him that by leaving he’d be completely screwing the team that both gave him his big chance and dismantled its roster for him to shine. I’m sure at the time Redd was excited about the chance to lead his own team, but somehow I think that these days he keeps a pile of $100 bills on his nightstand to smack himself in the face with when he thinks about how he could have been in the finals last year.

2006: Signed Lynn Greer (2 yrs/1.5 million). Another European find, he had been a big scorer in Europe ever since the NBA realized that the best product John Chaney had ever put in the NBA was Mark Macon and took a pass on Greer. Unfortunately, Greer’s stay in Milwaukee was tragic, as his fiancée fell ill and passed away during the season. As a result, Greer missed time and never was used until well after the season was wasted. Greer would have been an able replacement for Charlie Bell this year, but after resigning Bell, Harris did Greer a favor and let him out of the final season of his contract in order to return to a better offer in Europe. It was still a good signing, just one that didn’t work out.

2006: Traded Jamaal Magloire for Steve Blake, Brian Skinner and Ha Seung Jin. Credit Harris for realizing that Magloire’s game had turned to crap and he had virtually no value whatsoever. Conventional wisdom would say that Magloire could be traded for a draft pick at the trade deadline, but Harris probably got as much back as he ever would, considering that Portland wasn’t able to move Magloire either. Besides, getting a pick back would probably have required the Bucks to take on some sort of longer salary commitment, which would have hurt them this past offseason.

2006: Traded Steve Blake for Earl Boykins and Julius Hodge. Given the way the Bucks season was going, this was a perfect trade for them. Boykins is the type of player that can sell some tickets, at 5’3� he’s an inspirational story, and can score a little, but he won’t help you win at all. Because of his height there’s simply no way he can come close to pulling his weight defensively, and his shoot-first mentality leaves his teammates more interested in strangling him than running the offense. Not a bad way to dump games. Fortunately for the Bucks, Boykins opted out of his contract (as expected), saving Milwaukee $3 million and pretty much making it possible to sign Desmond Mason. However, as what must come as a surprise to Boykins, he is still unemployed. Something is wrong with Julius Hodge – you would think that he’d be the perfect guy to have as the backup to Michael Redd for 10 minutes a game (6’7�, can defend a little) but something about him caused the Bucks to release him as quickly as they could.

2007: Resigned Mo Williams (6 years/$52 million). Good move to keep Mo, as he is still only 24 years old and will be a part of the team as he reaches his prime and despite Mo being the only reasonable option for the Bucks, Harris kept the contract offer from getting out of hand. Williams has built himself up into one of the better point guards in the league, and his career trajectory to this point actually looks a lot like Chauncey Billups’. For that to continue, Mo will have to develop two major skills that he currently does not have – namely, becoming a lockdown defender and a foul-drawing machine. However, those were both knocks on Billups as well (as was the “point guard who does nothing but shoot� label), and point guards have a history of peaking later in their careers than other players. Mo is smaller than Billups, so he will probably never reach those All-Star heights, but still this contract should provide fair value with a 5-10% chance of being a real bargain by the time it ends.

2007: Signed Desmond Mason (2 years/$10 million). My feelings about Mason’s game are well documented (way too inefficient offensively to help, overrated defensively, good hustle guy who should get 10-15 minutes a game) but this was a good signing, especially since it has become apparent that Bobby Simmons is not and may never again be the same player he once was. Harris got a great insurance policy at small forward in Mason – a great character guy who won’t complain should he not play much, but if he does, at least he never gives less than maximum effort. There weren’t really any better options available in free agency for that role, and while $5 million a year is a bit much that doesn’t bother me since the contract is only for two years.

2007: Drafted Ramon Sessions. He sure has played well in the NBDL.

Bad Moves (but with an asterisk)

2005: Signed Bobby Simmons (5 years/$47 million). Because of Simmons’ injury problems this deal hasn’t worked out, and it’s starting to look like Simmons might not be the same player any more after surgery on his feet. That’s a tough injury for a basketball player to recover from, and it’s a shame. In 2004 Simmons was the NBA’s most improved player, an award that historically hasn’t meant much, but the 4 previous winners were Zach Randolph, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal and Gilbert Arenas. Heady stuff. There’s no doubt that the Bucks overpaid for Simmons from the get-go, but Harris was under a lot of time pressure to get the deal done. They signed Simmons in the period between reaching an oral agreement with Michael Redd and actually signing him, so they technically used their cap space to get Simmons and then went over the cap to sign their own guy (Redd). Obviously it’s easy to look back now and say they should have offered Simmons’ contract to Gerald Wallace, but they didn’t have the time to sign the RFA Wallace and wait to see if Charlotte would match, and if they did then the Simmons opportunity might have been gone. Also, Harris could have done much, much worse as the rest of the free agent class of 2005 wound up being a complete disaster. It’s too bad that the Simmons signing will probably wind up being a bust, because it was the right move at the time.

2006: Traded TJ Ford for Charlie Villanueva. This is a hard trade to categorize as good or bad. It hasn’t worked out, but that’s not really anybody’s fault. Ford was a long way from being a good player after 3 seasons with the Bucks, but he only had played 1 ½ years due to injury. Mo was cheaper and an equally good player, so it only made sense to trade him, right? But it often takes point guards a long time to reach their potential, and while Ford busted out last season, it seemed to me that the improvement came more from being in a better situation for his game than actually improving. But then this year he definitely improved – and suddenly everybody holds their breath as the neck problem crops up. Clearly Ford will have to change his game to take less contact, but will he be as effective once he does? Charlie Villanueva is even more difficult to figure out. Such a tantalizing talent, but does he play physically enough to be a starting power forward? Is his head in the game consistently enough to be effective off the bench? I’m convinced that TJ has become a better player than he would have in the Bucks system (especially now that Krystkowiak has slowed the game down so much this season) and that ultimately, Charlie V will probably be playing somewhere else. What the Bucks get in that deal will be the final determinant of the quality of this trade.

Well, the great Ersan Ilyasova experiment is over. He is signing with AXA Barcelona (link to La Vanguardia, sorry, it’s in Spanish) for a 2 year deal rumored to be around $5 million, which is far more than he would be worth in an NBA uniform.

(Courtesy of Freetranslation.com):

Barcelona. (EFE).- The Turkish one Ersan Ilyasova, that the last season played in Milwaukee Bucks, has become the first acquisition of the AXA Barcelona for the two next seasons, has confirmed today the Catalonian club.

Ilyasova (2.08 meters and 20 years) is a capable, polyvalent player to play in exterior positions, in spite of his height. According to the reports that have of him, is a basketball player that runs very well in the transition, with a good launch exterior, large bases and good rebounder, especially in attack.

(Well, I guess you get what you pay for)

Good move for Ersan. His game will probably fit well in the slower, smaller, more physical Euroleague game where he might actually be able to play as a gigantic 2-guard.

So we will never know what Ersan actually was capable of. A solid NBDL season and MVP of the European Under-20 Championships made it look like the Bucks had found a diamond in the rough, but he had a real problem with defense at the NBA level (the Bucks were outscored by 11 ppg with him on the floor, but by 4 with him off). Compounding the problem was the fact that injuries forced him to start far more games than he should (and into tougher matchups) and to play a good portion out of position at power forward. Also there was some question about his long term potential, as ankle injuries before coming to the NBA had slowed him somewhat and his age had come under suspicion.

Best of luck to you Ersan. The Bucks have enough polyvalent players, anyway.

*Merriam-Webster’s dictionary defines “polyvalent” as:

Function: adjective
Etymology: International Scientific Vocabulary
1 : having a chemical valence greater usually than two
2 : effective against, sensitive toward, or counteracting more than one toxin, microorganism, or antigen <polyvalent vaccines>

Now that the Bucks have at least cemented the return of their starting five and are nearly certain that they’re getting a few players back, I figure it’s time for me to offer my advice up to Coach K on how I would run things.

Center: Andrew Bogut starts, Gadzuric backs him up. Occasional action can be seen at this position by Brian Skinner (assuming he comes back).

Power Forward: Charlie Villanueva starts, Bobby Simmons backs him up (see Small Forward) or Brian Skinner on a match-up by match-up basis.

Small Forward: Desmond Mason starts (with the goal of having him lock down the other team’s best perimeter player early) and doesn’t log serious minutes unless he is playing well, Bobby Simmons comes in as the 6th man for whoever is playing the worst (Charlie Villanueva or Desmond Mason). David Noel logs minutes when Simmons is in the game already and Mason needs a break.

Shooting Guard: Welcome to the Michael Redd show. Charlie Bell (assuming he returns) gets action at this position for about 8 minutes a game.

Point Guard: Mo Williams starts obviously, playing the majority of the minutes. Charlie Bell is the first off the bench to replace him, with Lynn Greer getting action when Bell is already on the floor.

Question Marks? Yi, obviously, let’s assume he won’t be playing and that he’ll be traded. Obviously we need to get something in return, but what I don’t know. Ersan Illyasova (one of my favorite players) is reportedly going back to Europe to play. Ramon Sessions will probably be in the D League (it’s a great resource to develop players). I have no idea what their intentions are for Damir Markota, but he looked pretty good in Summer League play. Does he start to compete with Gadz or Skinner for minutes?

The Milwaukee Bucks have exercised the options on Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut to keep them under contract until 2008-2009, no surprise.

More importantly, they tendered offers to both Charlie Bell and Ersan Illyasova, meaning any offers they may get the Bucks can match.  Bell wants to be here, and Larry Harris has indicated they want him here, so I think it’s safe to say he’s going to be a Buck.

The Bucks have been terrible in crunch time this year.  I have a few thoughts as to why.

• Terry Stotts never makes any line-up changes to interject fresh legs in the final minutes unless he has to because of foul trouble.  If your team ain’t scoring Terry you need to change something. 
• Mo Williams always plays regardless of the situation.  Steve Blake needs to play when the team is ahead, he has the right mentality for playing with the lead.  He is a pass first player that is well-suited to look for Bogut and Redd in crunch time.  He can’t score like Williams, but I have more faith in him as a decision-maker.
• Michael Redd dribbles way too much.  They need to develop crunch time plays, not crunch time time 1-on-5 situations like happened tonight vs the Pacers.  Both on-the-ball picks should be happening for Redd and off-the-ball picks by Andrew Bogut so that he can role to the basket.  This is not street basketball and Michael Redd is not Kobe Bryant.  Terry Stotts needs to teach and preach X’s and O’s.
• Ruben Patterson often doesn’t play in the final minutes in favor of Charlie Bell.  If the Bucks are winning Patterson should be on the floor.  He is the Original Gangsta and plays like a mad man on defense.  It should be made clear to him that on offense he only shoots if it is a dunk and that on defense he is needed on the court so that he can assault the opposing players with his  Jermaine-O’Neil-jacking-the-fan-on-the-court type anger.  It is far too often that players get easy layups on the Bucks late in games.
• No one should score against the Bucks on an easy layup.  You do not get to dunk or lay the ball in against the Bucks.  This is the NBA.  You will to get fouled and you will get fouled hard.  This is how good teams control the tempo late in games.  Fear.  Right now it’s a cake walk, and it’s sickening.
• Dan Gadzuric should never touch the ball on offense in a close game.  Come to think of it, why isn’t Brian Skinner on the court?
• Ersan does not in any circumstance belong on the court late in a close game.  In the event that he would need to come into the game a random fan shall be selected from the crowd to take his place.  He does not have pressure experience in the NBA yet and this isn’t the time for him to learn it.  He needs a good 1,000 minutes of regular season experience before I would even consider putting him in late in games.

In summary when the Bucks are winning they need Steve Blake and Ruben Patterson.  They also need to tighten up the defense and foul people hard if they try to lay the ball in.  They either dunk it over Andrew Bogut’s head or settle for jump shots.  Bucks defenders need to develop the “Over My Dead Body” mentality in the final minutes of a close game, because right now they are a pathetic basketball team in the closing minutes.

The Bucks defeated the Charlotte Bobcats 104-100. Redd against paced the team with 21 points. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has my favorite recap where the highlight how Charlie Villanueva fouled out the first two games. I wasn’t able to watch this game, so I don’t have any legitimate insight to add other than Dan Gadzuric still had another terrible shooting outing, even though he didn’t start.

Tonight the Bucks continued rolling and stomped on a bunch of guys wearing Dallas Mavericks jerseys. Dallas didn’t play Dirk Nowitzki, Greg Buckner, Devin Harris, D.J. Mbenga, Jerry Stackhouse or Jason Terry, which creates an easy win for the Bucks.

If this was the regular season and Dallas didn’t play those players, the Bucks would have used their starters to destroy them. Unfortunately, it’s still the preseason and the Bucks are missing now two starters. Bobby Simmons is going to be out for a month now with a heel injury, a downgrade in status from his previous “day-to-day” (which I previously believed meant I would be seeing him tonight).

So out of a starting lineup that included Andrew Bogut, Villanueva, Simmons, Michael Redd, and Mo Williams, we’re now looking at Dan Gadzuric, Villanueva, Ruben Patterson, Michael Redd, and Mo Williams. I don’t buy into the starting point guard debate at all (despite the national’s media attention to a non-existent issue), Steve Blake will not start, Mo will.

The loss of Bobby Simmons won’t hurt nearly as much as the loss of Bogut. Ruben Patterson, an off-season acquisition (the defensive stopper I said we needed), has played very well so far. What is more surprising though is the emergence David Noel. He has already shown that he has quite the desire to prove himself in the L and has the skills to back it up. Without knowledge of the long-term Simmons issue, I sat at the game tonight wondering what Stotts/Harris would do with Noel, whether they would let him ride the pine all season or send him to the D-League to develop. That won’t be an issue to start the season, he’s going to get action right away. The development of David Noel is the second most important storyline to watch on the Bucks now, number one being how the Bucks fair without Bogut.

Observations from tonight’s game…

• Mo Williams takes far too many bad outside shots. If he takes better shots his shooting percentage is going to go through the roof.
• The Dan Gadzuric/Brian Skinner storyline was mute in my mind tonight. What they do against a bunch of second-tier players doesn’t matter to me. I want real game situations.
• Terry Stotts did the right thing by keeping Michael Redd on the bench for much of the game, while the Bucks had the lead.
• What’s wrong with Ha Seung-Jin? I want to see him play.
• I was impressed with Steve Blake’s hustle. He will push Mo this year for playing time in the clutch.
• Charlie Villanueva avoided foul trouble tonight. I’m going to guess he fouled out of the first two games because he just came out with a huge chip on his shoulder from the off-season knacks on his defense. Once he calms down and learns how to be effective, he’ll be fine. Again like Gadzuric and Skinner, it’s a wait and see against better players issue.
• In my first time seeing Ersan Ilyasova play in the NBA he looked pretty good. He looked like he belonged. He’ll get minutes in the wake of Simmons being gone. David Noel will really push him.
• Damir Markota won’t make the team, just a guess. He doesn’t seem to get any minutes and looks a little loss when he is on the court.

Milwaukee 91, Mavericks 78 - JS Recap, NBA Recap, ESPN Recap

It’s time to pay a little love to our second round draft pick from last season. I’ve done a lot of talking about first round pick Andrew Bogut, but Ersan Ilyasova played real well in the international tourney. He really improved his game and showcased that he’s on the path to be a solid NBA player.

With that in mind, here are a couple nice highlights of his work.

I can’t wait for him to return to Milwaukee for training camp, because I miss seeing him and Andrew Bogut in the grocery store. Your life is never the same after you’ve stood behind a 7-footer in the checkout line.