The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Despite meeting the President yesterday, something which Jodie Meeks was quite excited about, the Bucks were downed by the Washington Wizards in the closing seconds of the game.

More amusing though was Brandon Jennings mocking Joe Alexander on Twitter this morning.  It has to be tough not to be Joe right now, when you know you have almost no chance of being a Buck next year, your words were sort-of twisted to say that you were demanding a trade, and you still have to sit through every game.  Actually life can’t be all that bad, he is getting paid $2,583,360 this season.

That said, getting mocked by this year’s rookie after being the subject of much mockery last year can’t be much fun.  Joe also appears to have a thing for getting photographed sleeping.

In other news, Jennings is excited Obama knows who he is.

The Malik Allen deal makes some sense in that the Bucks save some money. They certainly couldn’t have found some more interesting guys to pick up in the deal.

The Bucks got Sonny Weems and Walter Sharpe in the deal. Weems will likely get bought out — his contract only has $175,000 guaranteed. Weems is a highly athletic guard who apparently could potentially wind up in the NFL should his hoops career peter out. According to his former coach, George Karl, it’s headed that way:

“Sonny is an athletic player that’s got to learn how to play basketball,” Nuggets coach George Karl said. “At times it looks like he’s taking that step, and then at times it doesn’t look like he’s taking that step. He has 10 days here at summer league. He’s going to have to figure out his niche. He’s got the talent to play in the league. The question will be: Does he have the mind to play in the league?

Since the Bucks need to eliminate someone from their roster in order to make room for Brandon Jennings, Weems is clearly as good as gone.

Walter Sharpe is another story.

Despite being a 2-year veteran, he is a total enigma. He is supposed to be a highly athletic 6’9″ power forward who was originally drafted by John Hammond at Detroit. He had been traded to Denver this offseason in a cost-cutting move by the Pistons. Along with Amir Johnson, I’m seeing a trend with Hammond’s player evaluation style — he wants to stockpile athletic big men, hoping to eventually mine a mini-Kevin Garnett.

He’s supposed to have lottery talent. However, to say Sharpe had a checkered college career would be an understatement, as his resume includes:

– Getting kicked off of the Mississippi State team for transgressions that included missing team flights and practices, and being academically ineligible.
– Winding up at UAB.
– Before playing for UAB he was arrested along with 4 teammates for disorderly conduct and, in a really bizarre incident, shot with a small-caliber bullet in the abdomen — an incident which he tried to hide from the police and medical workers.
– Playing half a season for UAB before being declared academically ineligible.
– Being diagnosed with narcolepsy, which actually explains a lot.

As far as I can tell, Sharpe’s contract is guaranteed this season. He is big and athletic with a good handle, and Detroit had been trying to shift him to small forward, a transition that I would expect to continue in Fort Wayne this year. A good look at Sharpe can be found at this Nuggets blog, Roundball Mining Company. The odds are heavily against him ever developing into much of a player, but if he does the rewards could be great.

With these moves in place, the Bucks now find themselves far enough below the luxury tax to be able to match a full midlevel offer sheet to Ramon Sessions. But would they do that?

Despite theoretically having the necessary cap room, I think that if Sessions gets a full midlevel, maximum length (5 year) contract, they will let him walk. They didn’t draft Brandon Jennings to sit him forever, and while having Sessions around for the next two years while Jennings develops would be nice, his presence might cause more problems than it would solve if the two are equal players in 3 years. If Jennings turns out to be good, then Sessions winds up being an overpriced backup.

Honestly, last year I got the feeling that Scott Skiles didn’t really think much of Sessions’ game. He often breaks off plays to penetrate, his jumper is shaky, and his defense was very spotty. If they really thought Sessions was a long-term solution they wouldn’t have drafted Jennings in the first place.

However, this illustrates the problem with drafting a young point guard. You need to take a couple of years to let him develop before you really know what you have, and if the answer is “a total bust” then you might have set your franchise back 5 years before its all said and done.

UPDATE: I notice from Gery Woelfel that Walter Sharpe will be out for the year with a torn ACL. Not often you see an injured player get traded. From what I read, Sharpe’s contract is guaranteed this year but those facts may be incorrect — he may have a buyout. So he wont be stashed in Ft. Wayne this season after all. His is an interesting story, but I doubt we ever see him on the BC court.

ESPN is reporting that Charlie Villanueva will sign a 5 year, $40 million deal with Detroit.

Honestly, I don’t see that working out so well for the Pistons. It might not do much for the Bucks either, but that’s another story.

I just don’t see Villanueva as that valuable a player for a team that needs him for 30+ minutes per game. He can do some great things on the court, don’t get me wrong. But when it comes down to it he is inconsistent and defensively challenged. Sort of like Ben Gordon, who the Pistons also signed tonight.

So the Pistons, who added 190 pound Austin Daye and the next Jud Buechler in Chase Budinger in the draft, just blew their $25 million in cap space and now go into the season with the following rotation:

Rodney Stuckey at point (okay start)
Richard Hamilton and Gordon at the two (Hamilton couldn’t handle having Iverson on his team, now he’s supposed to share the position with a guy who just got a 5 year contract for about the same money?)
Tayshaun Prince at small forward, backed up by Budinger.
Charlie V, Jason Maxiell and Daye
Kwame Brown and, if they resign him, Antonio McDyess?

Yikes! See what I mean about Villanueva being a great $4 million player and a lousy $8 million player? It sucks to lose him for nothing, but seriously, is he worth that?

Considering who the Bucks are — a 35 win team that is a long way away from being a title contender — I’d rather have Johnson given the contract situation.

Even though last year was seen as a sort of disapointment for Amir Johnson — he fouled way too much but he is young, a shot blocking maniac (even though he averaged about 8 fouls per 48 minutes, he also averaged a shot block per foul, compared to Charlie V’s 0.44 blocks per foul). Looking at +/- stats is a little misleading because Villanueva played more meaningful minutes than Johnson last year, but with Johnson on the floor the Pistons outscored their opponents by 5 points per game and were outscored by 2.3 ppg without him. The Bucks were outscored by 2.2 ppg with Charlie V and outscored by 0.8 ppg without him last year. Johnson has a reputation as not really knowing what he is doing on defense but having the athletic ability to make up for it. Charlie V has the reputation of not trying all that hard on defense. There is a difference. Give me the guy who is younger, cheaper and (incrementally) more athletic. Lets face it, it’s not like we are rooting for the Lakers or Cavs here. The Bucks aren’t trying to win the championship next year.

NBA.com is also reporting that Josh Childress will visit the Bucks. He is a restricted free agent who doesn’t want to return to Atlanta and a pretty nice player, and it’s possible that a sign-and-trade could be in the works here (Childress signed to a 5 year/$30 million deal and traded for Luke Ridnour and Mbah a Moute?) Atlanta is not over the salary cap and thus would not have much incentive to make a trade such as that, except that they would get something for Childress.

Childress will be 26 this year, so should be in his prime. I doubt anything will come of it, though, because of the damage that would cause to the efforts to get under the salary cap.

Forget the no-trade of Richard Jefferson, or the injuries to Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd and Luke Ridnour — now Bango managed to ruin his knee by falling through the hoop at an All-Star Weekend event?

This is getting ridiculous! I’m almost scared to go to the game tomorrow now, lest the team try to kill me with a t-shirt again!

(Which reminds me of something I saw earlier this year — you know the t-shirts attatched to parachutes that fall from the rafters during the first quarter? Well, I saw a shirt earlier this year come loose from the parachute when it was released. It fell straight down from the rafters — what’s that, maybe 60 feet? — landing squarely onto the head of a kid who was about 10 years old in the next section over from me. He had no idea what hit him — he almost started fighting with the kid next to him because he thought he had gotten smacked in the head for no reason. To add insult to injury, the jerk sitting behind the kid picked the shirt up on a bounce and kept it.)

Okay, so no more Redd, Bogut or Bango but at least Ridnour is supposed to be coming along well from his broken thumb and by not making a trade on Thursday the Bucks have serious salary cap problems now.

Here’s the issue. The cap this year is $58.6 million, and the luxury tax level is $71.15 million. The Bucks are right at the luxury tax threshold (HoopsHype has them listed at $71.2) but there are a couple of exceptions for minimum players so they shouldn’t be a payer this year. But that’s a lot of money for a borderline-.500 team when healthy, no?

Next year, it gets ugly. Assuming Francisco Elson and Malik Allen invoke their player options, the Bucks owe a little over $65 million to 10 players. That doesn’t include Ramon Sessions, who will be a Gilbert Arenas-clause restricted free agent (which means nobody can offer him a contract starting over the midlevel exception, so the Bucks can match any deal as long as they have not yet used the exception) and Villanueva, who has a $4.6 million qualifying offer. So for the Bucks to bring back the same team next year, it will cost them about $76 million (assuming $5 mil for Sessions and $2 mil for their first round pick).

But the real problem here is that the salary cap, because of the economic state the country is in, will most likely go down next year. This Bucks roster could find themselves $8 million or more into the luxury tax — for a borderline playoff team!

Maybe Portland or Cleveland were the ones to walk away from the Jefferson for either Sczcerbiak or LaFrentz trades, but if John Hammond was the one to turn them down then it was fiscally irresponsible for him to do so.

Now, by waiting until next offseason, there really isn’t anything Hammond can do, except try to make an offseason trade to a team with significant cap room (so the Bucks can take back less salary then they sent out). So who is going to have major cap room this offseason?

Atlanta

Detroit

Oklahoma City

Memphis

The thing is that Oklahoma City, for example, isn’t going to be interested in something like “Dan Gadzuric for Damien Wilkins”. No, they will be thinking more along the lines of “You’ve got luxury tax problems, eh? How about Andrew Bogut and a sign-and-trade of Ramon Sessions for Nenad Kristic and one of the first rounders San Antonio owes us?”

This is bad. Really, really bad. Like Herb Kohl staring a $30 million operating loss next year in the face bad.

ESPN is reporting that the Bucks have a couple of deals in the works to try and dump the salary of Richard Jefferson.

The two potential deals, they report, are Jefferson to Cleveland for Wally Sczcerbiak or to Portland for Raef LaFrentz.

Both of these deals are outright salary dumps, with Sczcerbiak having an expiring $13 million contract and LaFrentz and expiring $12.7 million deal. LaFrentz is injured, and 80% of his salary is being paid for by insurance. Jefferson is owed $29.2 million over the next two years.

If the Bucks pull off one of these trades, they will drop to only $40 million committed to salary for next year, making it easy for them to afford to re-sign either or both of Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva if they choose. They will also be able to withstand the potential drop in the salary cap that may be coming down the pipe next year.

From Cleveland’s perspective, I’m not sure why they would make that trade. Since LeBron James plays 40 minutes per game at Jefferson’s primary position, why bother adding him? Is it really logical to pay two small forwards — James and Jefferson — a combined $30 million next season when one of them is the most dominant player in the game?

Portland, though, might be a more intriguing option. They have been looking for a small forward for some time, and are apparently trying to work out a deal for Gerald Wallace as well. However, Wallace is better, younger, and paid less than Jefferson; so Charlotte is trying to make a trade that would include some of Portland’s younger players. The Bucks could do the trade on simply a 1-for-1 basis (or maybe with one other Portland player thrown in), causing less damage to the Blazer’s core roster. Jefferson also has a reputation as a solid character and would fit in the Portland clubhouse well (not a knock on Wallace, there’s nothing wrong with him either) and would be a good complement for Brandon Roy. Since LaFrentz’s contract is covered by insurance, the Bucks would likely have to chip in some cash to make up the difference between the money the Blazers are not playing LaFrentz and what they would have to pay Jefferson.

Hopefully John Hammond gets one of these trades done. The team has played pretty well without Bogut and Redd, but the writing is on the wall: if Richard Jefferson is your best player, the best you can hope for is to be a really well-coached team that is pretty competitive most nights. The team is that, at least. But there aren’t going to be many more wins this year with Jefferson or without him — certainly not enough to justify the massive (and possibly luxury tax-inflicting) contract he has. The Bucks are better off moving Jefferson and playing Joe Alexander more for the rest of the year.

Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons for nothing. Thanks, Larry Harris.

First of all, I want to thank all of the commentors who have given me crap for not writing much any more. Between work and having two young kids, I don’t have the time to write any more. It’s not so much the writing that is time-consuming — last year I only had one kid and was staying at home with him, so I had plenty of time to think about interesting things to write. This year, it’s totally different — I have responsibilities from about 6:30 am until 8:30 pm every day, and by then it’s all I can do to even watch a basketball game, much less think about something good to write about it. I really enjoyed producing an excellent blog last year (and the amount of writing I did was very helpful in that it kept my skills sharp for when I went back to work). I hate to be letting it go in the way I have, but I’d rather not write than just throw up some crap posts fairly regularly that are no more than glorified twitters.

Anyway, where is this team now?

Screwed in just about every way.

Lets see if I can recap:

– At full strength, this was an exciting team that had an outside shot at maybe the #5 seed and a chance to advance to the second round. Most likely, they were going to wind up with the #6 seed and could hopefully give Orlando a scare (a team which I have been completely wrong about for two years now. They are good).
– Then Michael Redd got hurt. For a well coached team, losing Redd was not a total disaster. Sure, it probably lowered the ceiling of the team from the #5 seed to the #7 (and getting blown away by Boston), but in the games Redd had missed the team had only averaged about 4 points per game less than with him. Most of his scoring could be picked up with relative ease by other players.
– Then Andrew Bogut’s injury turned out to be a stress fracture that will cost him the next two months. To be honest, I consider this diagnosis to be a positive one. I was starting to worry that his back issue might become one of those Tracy McGrady-style trick backs, where the guy is just perpetually questionable for the rest of his career. Fortunately, a stress fracture should heal.

This, however, leaves the team completely screwed. They have no chance at the playoffs with a frontcourt rotation of Gadzuric, Elson, Malik Allen and Villanueva. However, with Bogut and Redd signed to long-term contracts, just trying to dump salary doesn’t really make sense. The team would have no interest in trading away the two players who would likely garner the most interest around the league — Ramon Sessions and LR Mbah a Moute are fairly untouchable, and their contract status means they are both important to the Bucks and hard to include in other trades. Obviously, Dan Gadzuric has no trade value unless the Bucks take back something even worse in exchange.

What do the Bucks do? How do they make a big move without shafting themselves in the long run?

First of all, I would be more than willing to trade this years’ first round pick. The draft looks awful this year, and between Sessions and Moute, the Bucks have a couple of young, inexpensive players to fill out their rotation.

The best option is to try and trade for one of the superstar players who has an expiring contract after next year. Players like Bosh and Stoudemire have recently been rumored to be on the block, and should the Bucks be able to get one of them, they could be poised to make a 1-year run next year.

The deals?

1: Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, Luke Ridnour and Damon Jones for Amare Stoudemire and Jason Richardson. Phoenix would save $5 million on this deal, as Jones’ contract expires and Villanueva could be renounced after the season. Charlie V’s per-40 minute numbers compare pretty favorably with Stoudemire’s this season, and the trade would allow the Bucks to audition Alexander and Moute for the starting small forward position next year. It would also solidify Ramon Sessions as the point guard of the future. A starting lineup next year of Sessions/Redd/Moute/Stoudemire/Bogut with Richardson off the bench would be a nice group. It would likely only be a one-year run, though, as Stoudemire would be a free agent after the season, and with Redd, Richardson and Bogut owed $43 million in 2010/11, it’s unlikely Herb Kohl would be able to pay what it would take to keep him.

However, Stoudemire is pretty much known as a pain in the ass. What about Chris Bosh?

2: Bosh and Kapono for Jefferson, Alexander, Jones and a first round pick. It’s tough to come up with a reasonable deal with Toronto, since should they actually decide to deal Bosh, the Bucks don’t really have what they want. They wouldn’t need Jefferson and wouldn’t get much cap relief on the deal, and Joe Alexander and the likely-#15 pick in the draft isn’t a fair return for a perennial all-star. But if Bosh is going to walk after next year, maybe they would be willing. Not likely, though.

3: Jefferson and Jones for Shawn Marion. If Miami is serious about building around Michael Beasley, maybe they would be willing to turn Marion into a true small forward. This would kill Miami’s cap room after the season and would do nothing for the Bucks after this year, but would make a huge difference in the Bucks’ cap situation for the next two years and would clear up the small forward position as well. Marion is a prima-donna head case, but would probably put up huge numbers for the Bucks as he plays for his next contract with someone else. Losing Marion next year would make it easier to resign Ramon Sessions (and pick up Richard Hendrix out of the D-League. There I go again.)

Three deals that wont happen. But that just illustrates the quandry the Bucks find themselves in right now — they are built to win now, but have an incredibly low ceiling with Bogut and Redd hurt.

Remember in my season preview I made a remark about how the Bucks were sunk if they lost Andrew Bogut for a long time? Well, looks like I was right.

While Bogut’s overall production has been a little disappointing this season, at least he has been a rebounding beast. With 20, 17 and 17 boards in the three games before the injury, Bogut was averaging a rather stellar 0.347 rebounds per minute — the 6th best rate in the league among players averaging over 20 mpg. Of course, the cynic says that Bogut had better rebound like that since he’s the only rebounder the team has. That is a good point.

In the three games he has missed (all losses) the Bucks have been outrebounded by 24. That was a major problem in the loss to Cleveland, which was able to use the triumvirate of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao to simply hammer the Bucks on the boards all night. That game was a hard-fought effort until the Bucks simply ran out of gas (to the best team in the league — 5 straight double digit wins).

It worried me when John Hammond did nothing to bolster the front line behind Bogut, but it is true that dominant rebounders are not all that easy to come by. So what can the Bucks do?

Play Dan Gadzuric until he fouls out every night. It may make you shudder to hear this, but Danny G is a much better player than Francisco Elson. Why would Gadzuric only get enough minutes to pick up a total of two fouls in the last three games?

Free Charlie V! Face it, he is a lousy defender, but he scores in bunches and actually rebounds very well (0.32 per minute). The Bucks need him on the floor. Mbah a Moute is a very effective player, but why have him playing power forward on a regular basis where he gives up 3-7 inches to every opponent?

Go big. Ramon Sessions may be the Bucks most effective point guard, but when you have the chance a lineup of Gadzuric-Villanueva-Moute-Redd-Jefferson may work for a brief stretch. If that team has a hard time getting the ball upcourt (likely) then Sessions will have to come back in, but a big lineup might create some mismatches — and if it doesn’t then it gets Jefferson (38 mpg) a little rest.

Will it work? I don’t know. But Scott Skiles needs to do something to keep the boards clear while Bogut is on the shelf.

It does seem to defy belief — down three with 10 seconds remaining in overtime to Boston, the Bucks need a quick score. Instead of going to Ramon Sessions or Richard Jefferson they wind up running a screen-roll with Joe Alexander and Dan Gadzuric?

Gadzuric would miss a six-foot floater and that ended the game.

It seems ridiculous that Gadzuric and Alexander would even be in a situation to touch the ball in a big moment, but that’s what happened. And I’m fine with it.

With Redd and Villanueva not suiting up, Bogut ejected and Ridnour fouled out; the Bucks were without 4 of their top 6 offensive players. And considering that Richard Jefferson had spent the whole game getting beaten down by Paul Pierce, that left Ramon Sessions as the only viable offensive threat the Bucks could put on the floor.

I knew that. You knew that. Doc Rivers certainly knew that.

So, assuming that Sessions would draw a crowd as soon as he touched the ball, why not run something for the two guys least likely to get the ball? Besides, taking a quick two was the Bucks’ best chance of winning the game at the time. Think about it:

If they make a two, foul, and Boston misses a free throw then they are in a situation where a three can win the game on the last shot.

If they make a three with 10 seconds remaining, then they are tied and the Celtics will have 10 seconds to work for the last shot — where they will most likely get a foul or force a second overtime.

If the game went to a second overtime, the Bucks — with only Jefferson and Sessions remaining of their good offensive players, and both of them with four fouls — would have been toast.

So why was Gadzuric and Alexander in the game? Alexander had to be in, since Tyronn Lue and Francisco Elson were the only other Bucks remaining on the bench after Ridnour fouled out. A good case for Elson being in over Gadzuric can be made, but while I was driving home I figured it out:

Gadzuric deserved to be in the game. He had come in cold and made two big free throws when Bogut was ejected, and had played pretty well for about nine minutes by the end of overtime. Does Elson, who would have been coming in cold, have that much better a chance of making a 6-foot shot than Gadzuric would at that time? Gadzuric still likely had about a 60% chance of making it.

Gadzuric had earned the playing time through his efforts after Bogut was ejected, and Scott Skiles let him keep his spot. Rewarding the guys who are playing hard. Good coaching.

Meanwhile, it’s too bad that the Bucks couldn’t pull out the Boston game, but with the team losing players left and right it’s not too big a surprise that the better team would win at the end. The Celtics simply had more guys on the floor who could get off a good shot whenever they needed it.

The problem, though, is that the NBA is reviewing the bogus call that got Bogut ejected in the first place. Clearly Garnett, who swung at and hit Bogut in the face, deserves a suspension but there seems to be some precedent to suspend Bogut as well, even though all he did was inadvertently hit Garnett in the mouth while getting smothered by KG.

It’s only been a few games, but what are last years’ Bucks doing with their new team?

With one notable exception, not much.

You remember how I used to maintain that Royal Ivey wasn’t much of a defensive player, and even if he was, he was so bad offensively that it doesn’t really matter? Well, he has only played 7 minutes per game for a Philly team that is off to a slow start, and they have been outscored by 8 ppg with him on the floor while outscoring their opponents by 3.5 ppg without him. Ivey was the Bucks’ sixth man for long stretches last season … and he is being used much more effectively now. He is shooting 43%, not bad for him.

After shooting 48% for the Bucks last season, Desmond Mason is back up to his old tricks, only shooting 38% in 27 mpg for the Thunder. He’s also turning the ball over more than last year, rebounding worse, and getting fewer assists. At 31 years old, the athleticism is likely starting to wane, and the Bucks were lucky to have gotten as effective a season out of him as they did.

Mo Williams is off to a slow start with the Cavs, only shooting 40% and seeing his numbers fall off in nearly every other category. However, after going into a new situation in Cleveland, an adjustment period is to be expected and with the ball in LeBron’s hands, a decline in Mo’s numbers can only be expected. As the Bucks-Cavs game showed, the team is doing just fine with Mo.

You thought Bobby Simmons was bad last year? Oh man, look at him now! He’s playing 27 minutes a game and shooting 33%. His rebounds are down to 3.5 per 40 minutes and assists are down to 1 per 40 minutes. At least he’s not turning it over much, but the real problem is he isn’t really doing anything on the court. In my post-season recap last year I wrote that Simmons’ averages last year were almost the same as his previous four years, not counting the big 04-05 season that got him his big contract. Well, he’s underperforming those numbers by a lot. He recently made some comments about needing to do more without the ball, but the real problem is what he does with the ball near the basket — he is shooting 45% on jumpers but only 20% close to the hoop.

Don’t look now, but Yi Jianlian is off to a really nice start for the Nets. He is playing 27 minutes a game and has an IPM of 0.83, making him the #20 forward in the league for this young season. He is shooting a little worse (41%) but is actually rebounding this season — averaging 11.9 boards per 40 minutes! He’s doing everything a little better this season — getting more assists, averaging a block per game, and not turning it over. However, his defense probably still has problems — the Nets aren’t really doing any better with him on the floor. And, just to be sure this is Yi Jianlian we are talking about, he is still getting 25% of his shots close to the basket blocked.

Larry Harris, former general manager of the Milwaukee Bucks, is set to join the Golden State Warriors.  Whether it’s as an assistant coach or personnel assistant is not currently known.

What we do know is this.  Don Nelson is the head coach at Golden State.  Don Nelson is good friends with Chicago Bulls assistant coach Del Harris.  Del Harris is the father of Larry Harris.