It wasn’t the luxury tax.
The Bucks could have offered a qualifying offer to Villanueva for about $4.5 million this year — a 1 year deal that would have allowed him to be a restricted free agent this year or made him a free agent next year. However, instead they let him walk now. Why?
As a favor to his agent. It would be sort of a dick move to try and force Charlie V to play out one more year with the Bucks when they don’t have any intention of signing him to a long term deal. As I’ve mentioned before, I never thought they felt he was worth a big raise, considering Scott Skiles couldn’t see fit to give him over 30 mpg last season, even though he was their best player the second half of the season. Honestly, I agree with that assessment.
By the numbers, Villanueva had his best season as a pro last year, but he did it in the same way that Zach Randolph looked great in his final season with Portland. Villanueva took more shots this past year than he ever has in the past. Because he’s a pretty efficient scorer that makes his overall numbers look great compared with his past body of work. But put him on a good team (or a team with several other efficient scorers) and he will get fewer shots and his numbers will drop. He’s a great $4 million/year player, but a lousy $10 million/year player.
Meanwhile the Bucks needed to clear the roster spot. Assuming Bruce Bowen gets bought out and adding Brandon Jennings and Jodie Meeks, the Bucks would have 16 guaranteed contracts if Villanueva is included (and assuming that Elson and Allen pick up their options). But they would need to get the roster down to 15. They could have released (but still paid) Salim Stoudamire, but they might have to do that anyway should Ersan Ilyasova decide to come back to Milwaukee (and is not included in a trade). This also assumes Meeks makes the team. The last roster spot might come down to Stoudamire’s guaranteed contract vs. Meeks’ non-guaranteed one.
So why do a favor for Villanueva’s agent, Jeff Schwartz by allowing him to negotiate a new contract for Charlie V without the threat that the Bucks would match any offers? Because his firm, Excel Sports, represents another member of the team, one that management likely has a sweet spot for. Somebody who they will want to resign in a couple of years, but someone who they will try to avoid breaking the bank for.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.
Brandon Jennings has delivered his first gem to the Milwaukee media. Talking to rapper Joe Budden, Jennings delivered exactly what he has managed to avoid during the past year in Italy, a profanity-laced tirade directed at teammates and opposing players.
To be fair, I think there is a good chance Jennings didn’t know he was on the air, but a player still has to have some self-awareness. I had a flash back to the Todd Day “damn Milwakee” video.
I provide you the link to the dialogue with a full disclaimer that it’s at a “not safe for work (NSFW)” language level. SportingNews has the story and the dialogue between Jennings and Budden.
As a positive from the conversation, Jennings did not rip on Milwaukee or Scott Skiles. That’s a good sign.
Hi everybody! If there’s anyone left to say hi to, since I haven’t written anything in several months, then I really appreciate your coming around. I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts about the Jefferson trade and the NBA Draft.
The Jefferson trade salary dump was the sort of thing the Bucks were going to have to do. There is simply no reason to have a luxury tax-level team if you are only going to win 38 games. RJ is a nice enough player, but he’s totally overpaid at $14 million per. I only wish they had managed to trade him at the deadline last year instead of waiting until now, because then the cost savings for next year would be even greater.
But the real key to the deal was Hammond swinging a trade of Oberto for Amir Johnson.
Johnson was the last high school player taken in the draft, a 2nd round pick that was likely John Hammond’s pet project. He’s only 22 and is an incredible athlete who has played very little but has always put up plenty of blocks and steals, while managing a poster dunk just about every time on the floor. He struggled last year in his first year as a contributor for the Pistons, but in previous years had killed the D-League (to the tune of 25/10). It could be that he had a hard time playing alongside Rasheed Wallace, it could be that he developed some attitude problems after signing his second contract (3/$11, expires after the 09/10 season), and it could be that he just had a bad season last year. He’s not really a Scott Skiles player (no offensive game beyond the dunk, but he shot 59% last year, trouble with defensive positioning and help) but clearly Hammond loves him. He actually could bust out this year into something special. It’s like getting another first round pick.
As far as what this means for resigning Villanueva and Sessions:
The new rumors are that the Bucks are looking to trade Ridnour as well, which sounds like a clear sign that they want to sign Sessions whether or not they draft a point guard this year. Which is fine — if they get a point guard like Jrue Holliday, once Michael Redd’s contract expires, they would have a similar back court to the Hinrich/Gordon combo the Bulls used under Skiles. It’s wasy to forget that combo was pretty successful for a couple of years.
I’d be wary of signing Villanueva to a long term deal. Even though his numbers were great last year, Skiles still didn’t see fit to play him over 30 minutes per game. I get the feeling that part of the reason his overall numbers were so good was that Skiles played him perfectly — leave him out there when he’s playing well, yank him as soon as it appears his concentration is starting to drift. I don’t think Charlie V will ever be consistent enough to be a great 35+ MPG player, although he’s a really good 30 MPG guy. That means he’s reasonably paid at $4 mil a year, but would be grossly overpaid at $10+. I would extend Villanueva the 1 year tender offer and let him be an unrestricted free agent after the season. Besides, with the collective bargaining agreement expiring after this year, there is a good chance that the next CBA will change free agency enough that Villanueva would have little choice but to return to the Bucks for pretty reasonable money.
The Jefferson trade means that the Bucks now go into next season (not including the draft picks) looking like this:
Sessions/Ridnour
Redd/Bell
Mbah a Moute/Alexander
Villanueva/Johnson
Bogut/Thomas/Gadzuric/Elson
That’s not a team poised to make a huge leap forward. But by trading Jefferson to free up room for Moute, Alexander and Johnson at least there is a little more hope for the future. This team will still be lucky to win 42 games next year.
On to the draft. Which sucks.
My Draft Preview, which uses the same methodology as last year, is available here.
Thoughts on a few players:
Ricky Rubio: He’s #1. Not only did he put up solid numbers for a good team in the world’s 2nd toughest league (the Spanish League), he did it by shooting only 38%. However, he also had a wrist injury that caused him to miss some time and when he did come back, made it nearly impossible for him to shoot the ball for a large part of the season. He’s going to be a star, no matter what Brandon Jennings says.
Nick Calathes: I know you are saying, “Who does he have rated #2?” But Calathes put up great number with Florida last year and can really take care of the ball. He’s draft eligible but will be playing in Greece this season and possibly next year as well. Which actually makes drafting him a nice cost saving move for some team, because they will retain his rights but not have to pay him for a while.
Hasheem Thabeet: Bust. I’ve never been impressed with his athleticism at all. He just looks clumsy when grabbing rebounds and seems to have trouble holding them in traffic. He also has no offensive game. It is often said that he hasn’t played basketball that long, but he will be turning 22 this year — he’s not all that young either.
What should the Bucks do?
Since Rubio will obviously be gone, I would target Jrue Holliday first. Big and quick, he has the skill set to eventually combine with Sessions in a dual scoring guard role. He takes defense seriously. He’s from a solid family. Even though his season at UCLA was termed “disapointing”, he still showed enough to rank #9 in my rankings, and he did a good job of racking up the assists, steals and blocks while keeping his turnover rate low.
Johnny Flynn also intrigues me, but is likely to be gone. I’m not a big fan of Stephen Curry (for reasons I can’t exactly put my finger on, but I guess I don’t like small shooting specialists that much. Seems like those sort of players have a hard time scoring enough to make up for what they give up at the other end) and Brandon Jennings doesn’t excite me either (no frontin’).
If Hammond panics and decides he has to take a small forward, like Gerald Henderson or Chase Budinger, I will break my television. If he absolutely has to take a SF, though, Terrence Williams has the necessary track record. Without age as a consideration, Williams rates as my #1 prospect. he takes care of the ball and was an exceptionally good rebounder for someone who played a lot of shooting guard.
Looking in another direction, DeJuan Blair has some serious “Paul Millsap” potential in him, as he was an absolutely amazing rebounder at Pitt. That’s a skill that should transfer well to the NBA. I’m not as excited about Jordan Hill — he put up decent scoring and rebounding numbers at Arizona, but did little else and needs to gain weight.
James Harden could also be an intriguing prospect should he fall (which is unlikely). He is only my #10 prospect, but had he come out last year would have been in my top 5. He just had a worse sophomore season than his freshman year at Arizona State.
So there you have it. I’m hoping for Jrue Holliday. And for the second round … you heard it here first: either Victor Claver or Leo Lyons.
