The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Yeah, I know 9-13 isn’t very good.

But here’s the key: the Bucks have played nine home games and 13 road games. All they have to do is keep up the pace they have currently played and thanks to the 32 home games vs. 28 road games they have remaining they should finish at .500. Which should get them into the playoffs.

Also, it helps that the schedule will get slightly easier going forward. For example, the Bucks have lost 5 times to the three best teams in the league (Boston, Cleveland and the Lakers). Over the remaining three quarters of the season they only have to see these teams five more times.

More home games + more games against bad teams = more wins.

It also helps that this team has actually played pretty poorly on the offensive side of the ball, and the reason is because it’s biggest guns have been misfiring all year.

Michael Redd has not gotten going at all, hampered with his ankle injury and possibly a little post-Olympic hangover, and is putting up a brutal 0.668 IPM this season (IPM Data through Sunday is HERE). His numbers are down a little bit in every category, which suggest to me that his struggles are more a result of his injury rather than anything he is doing differently. His offense could also be down a bit because he is actually trying on defense this season, but either way he has not played enough minutes yet to be sure.

Andrew Bogut has not fit well in Skiles’ offense, and it has horribly hampered his numbers. He has been plagued with a case of turnover-itis, as he seems to constantly get the ball in the post and have a hard time getting rid of it cleanly. Remember his “great passing big man” reputation? I’m starting to wonder if he’s having trouble with Skiles’ offense or if his passing is going the way of his college jump shot. However, he has been bringing the goods on the boards and defensively, so if he gets going — adds 1 or two assists a night and cuts a turnover here or there — his numbers will be back to where they were last year. At least he is shooting 53% from the floor.

I’m satisfied that Ramon Sessions is a real player, so there’s a plus. I don’t know what the deal is with Richard Jefferson — a 0.68 IPM is not what we expected. In fact, that only looks good when compares with the 0.488 that Bobby Simmons is putting up for New Jersey. Jefferson made a nice career for himself as a complementary player but he’s not good enough to carry a team. With a little improvement from Bogut and Redd than maybe he wont have to try and carry the Bucks any more.

Most encouraging is that the Bucks currently rank 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. Scott Skiles has singlehandedly changed this team from a defensive laughingstock to nearly a top-third team in 20 games. That’s great, now their 26th ranked offense needs to pick up some slack.

I think they will, simply because the schedule says so.

That said, get ready for a little losing streak the next two weeks. They have little chance at Phoenix tomorrow. Then they have to play a back-to-back against Golden State — a horrible team, but one that could cause problems for a tired team. Then a must-win at home against Indiana, likely losses at Miami and Philadelphia next week, then a winnable game at New York next Friday, followed by a likely gimme against the Clippers at home next Saturday (LA will be on the second of a back-to-back). 3-4 will be likely in that stretch, I’d consider 4-3 a success.