The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

When Scott Skiles was hired as the Bulls coach, the improvement was immediate. The Bulls didn’t win much more with Skiles at the helm at the beginning (he replaced Bill Cartwright mid-season) but they immediately looked better on the court. Much more hustle, a much more coordinated defense. 20 point losses became 6 point losses. They were simply better.

The same thing is happening with the Bucks.

It’s not quite time to start making playoff plans, as the team’s 3 wins have come against some of the leagues’ worst (Washington, OKC and the Knicks) but the product on the floor is so much better than last year — better with people rotating to help out on defense and better with Sessions and Ridnour quickly deciding what to do on offense instead of Mo and Redd pounding the ball and refusing to give it up until the shot clock wound down to 2 seconds.

I’ve posted the seasons’ first IPM update and season power rankings.

What do the numbers say? Lets take a look:

The Bucks have been the #10 team in the league, and the #6 team in the East. Given their rather lackluster schedule strength thus far (beating 3 of the bottom 7 in the league), I’d expect this ranking to fall once they play Boston, Phoenix and San Antonio in the next 5 days. But there are some good things going on here.

First: The Bucks are playing defense and it shows. Through the first 5 games, the Bucks have averaged a defensive IPM of 3.28, good for #8 in the league. That’s simply fantastic. The offense is a somewhat anemic 3.45, only #20, but the defense has been better than the offense — and that translates to wins. It’s hard to believe that the defense could make that much of a jump with Andrew Bogut the only dependable big man, so it will likely slip somewhat soon. But the difference in the way the team plays is obvious to the naked eye and is also borne out in the stats. Scott Skiles has made a huge difference already.

The players:

Charlie Villanueva, 0.918 IPM: Charlie V has mixed in some lousy games with a couple of really good ones, and the result has been a really nice IPM. He is averaging 22 points and 13 rebounds per 40 minutes, and a respectable 1.84 blocks+steals per 40, which is a huge improvement over the last couple of seasons. So why is he only playing 22 minutes per game? Obviously, Scott Skiles has major problems with Villanueva’s defense. I get the feeling that Skiles may be intentionally putting up with Villa’s defense just long enough to make sure he is feeling it offensively, and then getting him out of the game as soon as it appears he is going cold. An example is the Wizards game on Wednesday — the Bucks ran out to a 15 point lead with Villanueva in during the first quarter, where he only shot 2-8 but grabbed 6 rebounds and had 2 assists. But once he struggled in the third quarter — 4 minutes, 0-1 shooting, 2 fouls — he was benched for the game. The result here is that Skiles may be artificially inflating Villanueva’s IPM by only using him while he is on a hot streak, but maybe he’s found the best way to use a player who is sometimes unstoppable offensively but always a liability defensively.

After a horrible preseason, Ramon Sessions (0.9224 IPM) chose a great time to really turn it on. 18 points and 8 assists per 40 on 50% shooting is exactly what the biggest optimist would have predicted for him. The best part has been Sessions’ decision making — he doesn’t mess around (like Mo) when he brings the ball up. Either he swings the ball around, tries to hit a cutter, or heads for the rim. He still has trouble with his jump shot when pressured — his natural form results in an ugly shot that comes out of his hands with sidespin on it — but he has clearly been working on his form, as it looks pretty nice when he is left open. Luke Ridnour should remain the starter, as having a Vinnie Johnson-type like Sessions coming off of the bench is a huge luxury, and one the Bucks need, given the awful production from the rest of the bench. I just hope the shooting percentage can hold up — as it might not as players start laying off of him to cut off the drive and make him shoot.

Andrew Bogut (0.713 IPM): I guess you can justify the slow start somewhat for Bogut as the only real problem for him seems to simply be not getting many shots. He’s shot 67.5%, which, as I like to say, means one of three things — you are Wilt Chamberlain, you are a horrible offensive player who is smart enough to only shoot when wide open under the basket, or you aren’t shooting enough. Clearly the latter is the problem, but he seems to be having a hard time getting open. I think the problem isn’t with Bogut, it is either his teammates or Skiles’ offense (and probably a bit of both). With Bogut the only inside presence on the team it becomes very easy to double him the second he touches the ball because his teammates are always hanging around the 3-point line. As a result, Bogut’s turnovers are up a little more than you would like, but at least he is rebounding (11.6 per 40) and getting dirty on defense (8 blocks and 7 steals). However, the free throw shooting is becoming a real problem — is there any reason for an athletic 7-footer like Bogut to be 33% from the foul line? If he had a jump shot then he could distribute out of the high post and probably average 18 ppg and 3 assists in his sleep, but that’s wishful thinking at this point of his career. But the free throw shooting is a major, major problem that threatens to short circuit the Bucks season — their offense is predicated on getting him touches and freeing up someone else for jumpers, so what good is he if you don’t want him touching the ball late in games because you don’t want him getting fouled?

LR Mbah a Moute (0.669 IPM): I was wrong about him. I admit it. I wanted Richard Hendrix in the draft, so that clouded my judgement of Moute from the beginning. But his defense and ability to guard three positions is a major plus — the type that wins games. The problem with LR is that his IPM right now is significantly better than it was in college (0.577), and an increase when moving up to the next level is beyond rare. He has shot 60% and so far has made some big ones, but I’d expect his FG% to drop to the low 40′s by seasons end.

Charlie Bell (0.29 IPM): I don’t know where that huge knee brace came from, but Bell might be better off staying on the bench and rehabbing for a while. He should not have started Wednesday’s game against Washington. He has shot poorly (30%) and turned the ball over far more than usual (8 times in 100 minutes played) while clearly not being able to play as physical defense as normal. He’s not right. The Bucks have been outscored by 16 points per game with him on the court and outscored the opposition by 12 ppg without him.

Overall, I would say this has been a very encouraging start to the season but one that is likely to hit a rough patch. The schedule gets a lot rougher in the next week, and then comes a long road grind. The record will slip, but as long as the team keeps playing like they have, I will be happy.