The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Is that they are boring.

And I mean that in a good way.

Last year I had so much to write about. The team was such a colossal mess that it was really fun to come up with all sorts of things. The coaching was awful. The team had some of the worst on-court chemistry imaginable. Larry Harris had collected some of the worst contracts imaginable. It was a complete train wreck. It was painful to watch. And so much fun to write about.

This year, it’s a lot harder.

Some of that is me. Last year I had one child and was a stay-at-home dad. This year I have two children and a job as well. So I don’t have as much time to think about interesting things to say, but there isn’t that much going on to complain about, make fun of, or point out as unexpected.

This year the Bucks have won every game they should have and lost every one they should have. Now, compared to last year that is a huge improvement. I’m sure that with Larry Krystkowiak at the helm they would have found a way to lose on November 5th against Washington and on Saturday night at Charlotte, and probably would have managed to lose to the 7-man Knick crew on Friday (considering that the Bucks blew 17-point third quarter leads to the Knicks twice last year).

To build their 7-8 record they have beaten 6 bad teams and it is debatable just how good San Antonio is right now without Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker (according to me and to IPM: not good at all). They have lost to 7 good teams, plus Chicago on opening night, which was a justifiable loss in my book. Going 1-3 in the at Boston – Phoenix – at Cleveland – San Antonio stretch? Justifiable. Looking awful in Denver and Utah without Redd or Villanueva? No big deal — those two high-altitude teams have the biggest home court advantage in the league.

This team is a heck of a lot better this year than it was last year. The chemistry is better, the defense is better, the coaching is better, the expectations are more realistic. You know, once they get Michael Redd back then they will add the scoring they have been lacking. Maybe this team will be capable of playing .500 ball all year with one hot 10-of-13 win streak in there, and that will propel them to 47 wins and a 6 seed. It’s nice to know that you can go to the Bradley Center and know that you will either see the Bucks play a competitive game against a good team or soundly beat a bad one.

But they sure aren’t as much fun to write about.

Meanwhile, I’ve updated my IPM rankings and Team Power Rankings, which are available at these links and always on the links on the right hand side of the page.

A couple of other random, general NBA thoughts:

I’m not surprised the Thunder fired PJ Carliesimo on Saturday. I watched most of the Friday night Thunder-Hornets game and thought that the Thunder looked like the worst NBA team I have ever seen. There was no semblance of a team concept on either end of the floor. I don’t think there was a single interior defensive rotation all night — I couldn’t believe how many open layups and uncontested follow up baskets the Hornets got. Meanwhile, I think I saw Kevin Durant touch the ball no more than three times in the entire time I watched. You can justify being awful if the cornerstone of your franchise is active in the game, but he was just floating along out there. Add to that the game was on ESPN and was against the Hornets — a team that many people in Oklahoma City most likely identify with more closely than the Thunder given the way the team wound up in OKC — and I can imagine that the Thunder owners were just embarrassed by Friday night’s performance. They suck, and with all of the shenanigans involved in stealing the team from Seattle, I’m glad.

Greg Oden is dominant. Yes, that’s right. After his career got off to a problematic start with the sprained foot in his first game, Oden has managed to average a 0.927 IPM in 19.5 minutes per game. Basically, his per-minute performance has him as the 8th best center in the game and within shouting distance of 5th best. As expected, Oden has been a rebounding machine (over 15 per 40 minutes) and shot-blocking threat (about 4 per 40 minutes) while he has shot 51% from the floor and has not turned it over much (zero turnovers in three of the five games where he has played over 16 minutes). Basically, he hasn’t hurt his team on offense (taking care of the ball and not shooting poorly) while stepping on to the floor as one of the best per-minute rebounders in the league. He might not start all season because of his health issues, but he could be the most important player in the league who averages less than 30 minutes per game this year.

The Knicks appear to know what they are doing (shudder). It hurts me to say it, but the Knicks made two great trades last week. Not only did they dump enough long-term salary to make a run at LeBron James in two years, but I think they actually improved themselves right now. Jamal Crawford may have been their leading scorer, but his game is so full of holes it’s pathetic. He scores and that’s it — no defense, no conscience about taking bad shots, nothing that helps you win. I once read a quote from Crawford where he said he always played in the Rucker Park tournament in the summer because “that’s where you work on your game.” That’s Crawford’s idea of how to play basketball? Streetball?

Meanwhile, the subtraction of black-hole Zach Randolph should help as well. Randolph puts up great scoring and rebounding numbers but is one of the laziest defenders around and screws up any sort of offensive flow with his need to get the ball in “his” spots on the floor to be effective.

The Knicks won’t be able to get a rebound any longer but by adding Al Harrington and Cuttino Mobely will actually be able to run Mike D’Antoni’s offense properly.

Now, will they actually sign LeBron James in two years … you know, I don’t think so. The whole LeBron pursuit thing has been so played up and will only be a bigger and bigger story over the next two years. I can’t help but feel that LeBron will risk so much bad press should he switch teams (and assuming that Cleveland remains highly competitive) that his marketing people will tell him that his image as an endorser could suffer. So much is made of how much “more money” he can make playing in New York, but if the consumer’s image of him becomes that of a disloyal, spotlight-hungry slut the potential losses would be huge. I’m not saying that Nike would drop him, but there is nothing to say that the endorsement rewards would be as large as one might think. Backlashes can be funny things.

It does seem to defy belief — down three with 10 seconds remaining in overtime to Boston, the Bucks need a quick score. Instead of going to Ramon Sessions or Richard Jefferson they wind up running a screen-roll with Joe Alexander and Dan Gadzuric?

Gadzuric would miss a six-foot floater and that ended the game.

It seems ridiculous that Gadzuric and Alexander would even be in a situation to touch the ball in a big moment, but that’s what happened. And I’m fine with it.

With Redd and Villanueva not suiting up, Bogut ejected and Ridnour fouled out; the Bucks were without 4 of their top 6 offensive players. And considering that Richard Jefferson had spent the whole game getting beaten down by Paul Pierce, that left Ramon Sessions as the only viable offensive threat the Bucks could put on the floor.

I knew that. You knew that. Doc Rivers certainly knew that.

So, assuming that Sessions would draw a crowd as soon as he touched the ball, why not run something for the two guys least likely to get the ball? Besides, taking a quick two was the Bucks’ best chance of winning the game at the time. Think about it:

If they make a two, foul, and Boston misses a free throw then they are in a situation where a three can win the game on the last shot.

If they make a three with 10 seconds remaining, then they are tied and the Celtics will have 10 seconds to work for the last shot — where they will most likely get a foul or force a second overtime.

If the game went to a second overtime, the Bucks — with only Jefferson and Sessions remaining of their good offensive players, and both of them with four fouls — would have been toast.

So why was Gadzuric and Alexander in the game? Alexander had to be in, since Tyronn Lue and Francisco Elson were the only other Bucks remaining on the bench after Ridnour fouled out. A good case for Elson being in over Gadzuric can be made, but while I was driving home I figured it out:

Gadzuric deserved to be in the game. He had come in cold and made two big free throws when Bogut was ejected, and had played pretty well for about nine minutes by the end of overtime. Does Elson, who would have been coming in cold, have that much better a chance of making a 6-foot shot than Gadzuric would at that time? Gadzuric still likely had about a 60% chance of making it.

Gadzuric had earned the playing time through his efforts after Bogut was ejected, and Scott Skiles let him keep his spot. Rewarding the guys who are playing hard. Good coaching.

Meanwhile, it’s too bad that the Bucks couldn’t pull out the Boston game, but with the team losing players left and right it’s not too big a surprise that the better team would win at the end. The Celtics simply had more guys on the floor who could get off a good shot whenever they needed it.

The problem, though, is that the NBA is reviewing the bogus call that got Bogut ejected in the first place. Clearly Garnett, who swung at and hit Bogut in the face, deserves a suspension but there seems to be some precedent to suspend Bogut as well, even though all he did was inadvertently hit Garnett in the mouth while getting smothered by KG.

It’s only been a few games, but what are last years’ Bucks doing with their new team?

With one notable exception, not much.

You remember how I used to maintain that Royal Ivey wasn’t much of a defensive player, and even if he was, he was so bad offensively that it doesn’t really matter? Well, he has only played 7 minutes per game for a Philly team that is off to a slow start, and they have been outscored by 8 ppg with him on the floor while outscoring their opponents by 3.5 ppg without him. Ivey was the Bucks’ sixth man for long stretches last season … and he is being used much more effectively now. He is shooting 43%, not bad for him.

After shooting 48% for the Bucks last season, Desmond Mason is back up to his old tricks, only shooting 38% in 27 mpg for the Thunder. He’s also turning the ball over more than last year, rebounding worse, and getting fewer assists. At 31 years old, the athleticism is likely starting to wane, and the Bucks were lucky to have gotten as effective a season out of him as they did.

Mo Williams is off to a slow start with the Cavs, only shooting 40% and seeing his numbers fall off in nearly every other category. However, after going into a new situation in Cleveland, an adjustment period is to be expected and with the ball in LeBron’s hands, a decline in Mo’s numbers can only be expected. As the Bucks-Cavs game showed, the team is doing just fine with Mo.

You thought Bobby Simmons was bad last year? Oh man, look at him now! He’s playing 27 minutes a game and shooting 33%. His rebounds are down to 3.5 per 40 minutes and assists are down to 1 per 40 minutes. At least he’s not turning it over much, but the real problem is he isn’t really doing anything on the court. In my post-season recap last year I wrote that Simmons’ averages last year were almost the same as his previous four years, not counting the big 04-05 season that got him his big contract. Well, he’s underperforming those numbers by a lot. He recently made some comments about needing to do more without the ball, but the real problem is what he does with the ball near the basket — he is shooting 45% on jumpers but only 20% close to the hoop.

Don’t look now, but Yi Jianlian is off to a really nice start for the Nets. He is playing 27 minutes a game and has an IPM of 0.83, making him the #20 forward in the league for this young season. He is shooting a little worse (41%) but is actually rebounding this season — averaging 11.9 boards per 40 minutes! He’s doing everything a little better this season — getting more assists, averaging a block per game, and not turning it over. However, his defense probably still has problems — the Nets aren’t really doing any better with him on the floor. And, just to be sure this is Yi Jianlian we are talking about, he is still getting 25% of his shots close to the basket blocked.

Larry Harris, former general manager of the Milwaukee Bucks, is set to join the Golden State Warriors.  Whether it’s as an assistant coach or personnel assistant is not currently known.

What we do know is this.  Don Nelson is the head coach at Golden State.  Don Nelson is good friends with Chicago Bulls assistant coach Del Harris.  Del Harris is the father of Larry Harris.

When Scott Skiles was hired as the Bulls coach, the improvement was immediate. The Bulls didn’t win much more with Skiles at the helm at the beginning (he replaced Bill Cartwright mid-season) but they immediately looked better on the court. Much more hustle, a much more coordinated defense. 20 point losses became 6 point losses. They were simply better.

The same thing is happening with the Bucks.

It’s not quite time to start making playoff plans, as the team’s 3 wins have come against some of the leagues’ worst (Washington, OKC and the Knicks) but the product on the floor is so much better than last year — better with people rotating to help out on defense and better with Sessions and Ridnour quickly deciding what to do on offense instead of Mo and Redd pounding the ball and refusing to give it up until the shot clock wound down to 2 seconds.

I’ve posted the seasons’ first IPM update and season power rankings.

What do the numbers say? Lets take a look:

The Bucks have been the #10 team in the league, and the #6 team in the East. Given their rather lackluster schedule strength thus far (beating 3 of the bottom 7 in the league), I’d expect this ranking to fall once they play Boston, Phoenix and San Antonio in the next 5 days. But there are some good things going on here.

First: The Bucks are playing defense and it shows. Through the first 5 games, the Bucks have averaged a defensive IPM of 3.28, good for #8 in the league. That’s simply fantastic. The offense is a somewhat anemic 3.45, only #20, but the defense has been better than the offense — and that translates to wins. It’s hard to believe that the defense could make that much of a jump with Andrew Bogut the only dependable big man, so it will likely slip somewhat soon. But the difference in the way the team plays is obvious to the naked eye and is also borne out in the stats. Scott Skiles has made a huge difference already.

The players:

Charlie Villanueva, 0.918 IPM: Charlie V has mixed in some lousy games with a couple of really good ones, and the result has been a really nice IPM. He is averaging 22 points and 13 rebounds per 40 minutes, and a respectable 1.84 blocks+steals per 40, which is a huge improvement over the last couple of seasons. So why is he only playing 22 minutes per game? Obviously, Scott Skiles has major problems with Villanueva’s defense. I get the feeling that Skiles may be intentionally putting up with Villa’s defense just long enough to make sure he is feeling it offensively, and then getting him out of the game as soon as it appears he is going cold. An example is the Wizards game on Wednesday — the Bucks ran out to a 15 point lead with Villanueva in during the first quarter, where he only shot 2-8 but grabbed 6 rebounds and had 2 assists. But once he struggled in the third quarter — 4 minutes, 0-1 shooting, 2 fouls — he was benched for the game. The result here is that Skiles may be artificially inflating Villanueva’s IPM by only using him while he is on a hot streak, but maybe he’s found the best way to use a player who is sometimes unstoppable offensively but always a liability defensively.

After a horrible preseason, Ramon Sessions (0.9224 IPM) chose a great time to really turn it on. 18 points and 8 assists per 40 on 50% shooting is exactly what the biggest optimist would have predicted for him. The best part has been Sessions’ decision making — he doesn’t mess around (like Mo) when he brings the ball up. Either he swings the ball around, tries to hit a cutter, or heads for the rim. He still has trouble with his jump shot when pressured — his natural form results in an ugly shot that comes out of his hands with sidespin on it — but he has clearly been working on his form, as it looks pretty nice when he is left open. Luke Ridnour should remain the starter, as having a Vinnie Johnson-type like Sessions coming off of the bench is a huge luxury, and one the Bucks need, given the awful production from the rest of the bench. I just hope the shooting percentage can hold up — as it might not as players start laying off of him to cut off the drive and make him shoot.

Andrew Bogut (0.713 IPM): I guess you can justify the slow start somewhat for Bogut as the only real problem for him seems to simply be not getting many shots. He’s shot 67.5%, which, as I like to say, means one of three things — you are Wilt Chamberlain, you are a horrible offensive player who is smart enough to only shoot when wide open under the basket, or you aren’t shooting enough. Clearly the latter is the problem, but he seems to be having a hard time getting open. I think the problem isn’t with Bogut, it is either his teammates or Skiles’ offense (and probably a bit of both). With Bogut the only inside presence on the team it becomes very easy to double him the second he touches the ball because his teammates are always hanging around the 3-point line. As a result, Bogut’s turnovers are up a little more than you would like, but at least he is rebounding (11.6 per 40) and getting dirty on defense (8 blocks and 7 steals). However, the free throw shooting is becoming a real problem — is there any reason for an athletic 7-footer like Bogut to be 33% from the foul line? If he had a jump shot then he could distribute out of the high post and probably average 18 ppg and 3 assists in his sleep, but that’s wishful thinking at this point of his career. But the free throw shooting is a major, major problem that threatens to short circuit the Bucks season — their offense is predicated on getting him touches and freeing up someone else for jumpers, so what good is he if you don’t want him touching the ball late in games because you don’t want him getting fouled?

LR Mbah a Moute (0.669 IPM): I was wrong about him. I admit it. I wanted Richard Hendrix in the draft, so that clouded my judgement of Moute from the beginning. But his defense and ability to guard three positions is a major plus — the type that wins games. The problem with LR is that his IPM right now is significantly better than it was in college (0.577), and an increase when moving up to the next level is beyond rare. He has shot 60% and so far has made some big ones, but I’d expect his FG% to drop to the low 40′s by seasons end.

Charlie Bell (0.29 IPM): I don’t know where that huge knee brace came from, but Bell might be better off staying on the bench and rehabbing for a while. He should not have started Wednesday’s game against Washington. He has shot poorly (30%) and turned the ball over far more than usual (8 times in 100 minutes played) while clearly not being able to play as physical defense as normal. He’s not right. The Bucks have been outscored by 16 points per game with him on the court and outscored the opposition by 12 ppg without him.

Overall, I would say this has been a very encouraging start to the season but one that is likely to hit a rough patch. The schedule gets a lot rougher in the next week, and then comes a long road grind. The record will slip, but as long as the team keeps playing like they have, I will be happy.

I just realized that I let the season begin without finishing my thumbnail preview. Well, I’m going to wrap it up real quick and then give my playoff picks:

1- Cleveland: It bugs me a little that Mo Williams has been touting how committed he will be to defense with the Cavs in his preseason interviews since that sort of seems to confirm that he was more interested in getting his numbers up with the Bucks than in creating a winner. However, if you look back, Williams said the same stuff every year with the Bucks only to see his defense get worse and worse as his offense got better. He’s the same guy no matter what jersey he wears, only he will probably look better on D this season because of the guys behind him.

With LeBron James as the most dominating force in the game, I think this season the title winds up in Cleveland.

Last year: 45 wins

Lose 5 more games from the decline of Ilgauskas and Ben Wallace.
+6 wins from having Anderson Varejao on the team for a whole season.
+6 wins because LeBron is unstoppable.
+2 wins from Mo Williams.
+1 win because JJ Hickson was a steal.

This season: 55-27

2- Detroit: This is the year the Pistons show their age. That’s what I was saying before the Iverson trade. Now I feel that they are embarking on a sort of, “maybe it wont work, but this season will be exciting and we save gobs of money in the offseason” plan. The Iverson trade was yet another savvy move by Joe Dumars. This team is way too old and Dumars is rebuilding the correct way (letting his young guys ease into the lineup while the older players have contracts set to expire around the same time).

Last year: Won 59 games.

Lose 4 games because their starters are either way too old or inexperienced.
Lose 3 games because Allen Iverson is not the same player any longer, and it will take time to get him integrated into the system.
Lose 2 games because they actually intend to use Kwame Brown.
Win 3 more games because Amir Johnson is a stud (not so sure about Rodney Stuckey yet).

This year: 53-29.

3- Chicago: People seem to think that the Bulls don’t have a whole lot of talent on their team because they don’t have any muscular Dwight Howard-types. But they have 7 recent top 10 picks on their team! How much more talent do you need? They quit on Scott Skiles and didn’t play nearly up to their talent level after pretty much the same group won 50 the year before. This team is already good — and it helps that it took 1 game to realize that Derrick Rose is the real deal.

Last year: won 33 games.

Win 1 more game because they started slowly every season under Skiles and don’t have him any more.
Win 8 more games because they quit on their coaches last year and didn’t play anywhere near their talent level.
Lose 3 more games because hiring Vinny Del Negro was stupid.
Win 5 more games because Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah are improving, and Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng are much better players than they showed last year.
Lose 4 more games by force feeding minutes to Derrick Rose — he has to have some growing pains. No matter how great Chris Paul was his rookie year, the Hornets were still a sub-.500 team.

This year: 40-42.

4- Milwaukee: My Bucks previews are here and here. While I have been mighty impressed with the teams’ play so far, I still think my original prediction of 38 wins and no playoffs will turn out to be correct. A 12 game improvement is still nothing to sneeze at.

Last year they won 26 games.

This year they win 3 more simply by not having Krystkowiak as head coach (they blew 17-point 3rd quarter leads to the Knicks twice! In one of those, Isiah Thomas didn’t make a single 4th quarter substitution!)
They win 3 more by having an above average coach in Skiles.
They win 2 more because Michael Redd sucked last year and shouldn’t be that bad again.
They lose 5 games because Mo Williams is better than their other point guards (they were 2-15 in games that Ramon Sessions played. Lets wait until he’s played some meaningful minutes before judging him.)
They win 3 more games because the “chemistry” and “offensive flow” is better with Ridnour than with Williams. If you believe in that sort of stuff.
They win 4 more games because Jefferson is an upgrade over Simmons.
They lose 1 more game because Mason was surprisingly good last year.
They win 1 more game because Alexander simply has to be better than Yi. He won’t get 40% of his close-to-the-basket shots blocked, right?
They win 2 more games because Bogut’s career trajectory has shown moderate improvement every year.

This year: 38-44.

5- Indiana: I’m just not a believer in what Indiana is doing. I think the Bayless for Brandon Rush and Jarret Jack trade was a joke, and I wonder how while TJ Ford has done nothing but put up better and better numbers for his whole career, the fans of his teams never want him around. The seasons that Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy had last year screams “fluke” to me. This team is nothing but a bunch of guys who collectively make you shrug and say, “yeah, he’s not bad, I wouldn’t mind him as my 6th or 7th man.” I just don’t see it working.

Last year: Won 36 games.

Lose 2 games from the loss of Jermaine O’Neal (it would be more but O’Neal hasn’t cared much about playing hard for the Pacers for years).
Win 1 more game from replacing Jamaal Tinsley with TJ Ford.
Lose 2 games because Mike Dunleavy comes back to earth.
Lose 3 games because they don’t have any shooting guards on the roster. A Jim O’Brien coached team without a 3-ball gunning shooting guard? How is that supposed to work?
Win 1 more game because Danny Granger is pretty good and getting better.

This year: 31-51.

That completes my thumbnail previews for the season. I think the final standings will look like this (and it already looks like Memphis might be a bit better than I give them credit for):

The Eastern Conference:

Boston 57
Cleveland 55
Detroit 53
Orlando 49
Philadelphia 48
Toronto 47
Washington 45
Miami 41
Chicago 40
Milwaukee 38
Atlanta 36
Indiana 31
Charlotte 31
New York 25
New Jersey 22

And the Western Conference:

Utah 58
New Orleans 56
Lakers 54
Houston 53
San Antonio 48
Portland 47
Phoenix 47
Dallas 46
Golden St 39
Denver 36
Sacramento 33
Minnesota 29
OKC 26
Clippers 23
Memphis 17

Who wins all the marbles? Cleveland over the Lakers.

The play by play went like this:

12:00 – Start of the first quarter
11:49- Andrew Bogut fouled by David Lee

That’s all she wrote. Game over. I even said so at the time.

With David Lee picking up a foul on the first possession of the game then he had to dial his hustle/energy game back to stay out of foul trouble. Then, when he picked up foul #2 six minutes later then he was on the bench for the rest of the quarter.

Mike D’Antoni fell into my favorite coaching blunder of all time at that point — He sat Lee until the end of the quarter and then yanked him five minutes into the second when Lee picked up his third foul. D’Antoni played the matchups in the second half, using Lee for a total of 9 minutes, generally only keeping him on the floor when Charlie V was also in the game.

The result for Lee, a player who had averaged 14.5 points, 11 boards and 2 steals in the Knicks first two games? 3 points, 2 boards and 2 turnovers in 19 minutes. And only three fouls.

So by yanking Lee with two fouls, D’Antoni moved his best player to the bench — his only player who makes a living through hustle and rebounding; his only player who makes his living doing the things that help teams win basketball games. This meant that not only was he not on the floor helping his team, but he was also successfully staying out of foul trouble. He finished with 3 fouls! He wasn’t even in foul trouble at the end of the game!

When D’Antoni yanked Lee in the second quarter after picking up his third foul the Knicks had just concluded a 10-4 run that saw them take their final lead of the night at 37-35. As soon as Lee checked out the Bucks went on a 12-3 run to essentially salt the game away (the Bucks made no substitutions immediately before or during the run, except to take out Bell and insert Redd at the end of it). If D’Antoni had left Lee in he might have possibly played out the half without picking up any more fouls and potentially helped keep his team in the game.

Even if he had picked up 1 or even two more fouls in the half, he still would have been available for at least some second half duty. And then the second half might have actually been a game instead of about 22 minutes of garbage time. Lee only played 19 minutes last night. If he had been left in the game with three fouls after playing 10 minutes is it really likely that he would foul out in less than 19 minutes? Instead, D’Antoni did the Bucks a favor my keeping his own player off of the offensive glass — which was probably the Bucks’ #1 priority in last nights game plan.

Of course, the whole point is moot because of what the Bucks did at the start of the second half — roaring out of the gate with a 12-0 run. Good coaching! Good halftime adjustments! It feels so good to say that the team seems to be hitting the floor ready to roll in the third quarter this season!

Now, hopefully Michael Redd’s sprained ankle gets better very quickly.