The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

The Pacific Division is probably the most interesting one in the NBA. With the Lakers returning to prominence and the Suns slowly mismanaging themselves into oblivion, this division is a lot of fun to watch. But it’s only interesting for the off-court stuff – this division shouldn’t be all that competitive this season.

1- LA Lakers: Am I the only person who isn’t sold on Andrew Bynum? Since most prognosticators seem to think he is the difference makers who is about to send the Lakers on a 2-3 year run of titles, apparently so. But I don’t like all of the conflicting stories that constantly surround him about his attitude and work ethic. For every story you hear about his personal big man camp with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar there is another one about how the Lakers want him in better shape and working harder on defense. First his knee injury was supposed to be a month, then the season, then it turns out he was never consulting the Lakers doctors in the first place – on the advice of Jim Buss (who had “discovered” and drafted Bynum, and considers him something of a personal project), Bynum was working with his own doctors all along. It all sounds like he is kind of going through his own little career path separate from the experience of the rest of his team. Does that sound like a way to build a winner? What happens when Kobe Bryant gets all over him in a big game? Bynum is big, young and talented; but it all makes me think that he is a little farther away from realizing that talent than people like to think. He’s still really good, but I’m still skeptical of him as a superstar.

Meanwhile, my guess is that the Lakers – who enter this season as the prohibitive favorite in the division instead of being seen as a team who might challenge for a playoff spot if Kobe decides to play hard – will cruise through the regular season, resting their two stars who played big minutes in the Olympics (and trying to ease the stress on Kobe’s injured finger). But for this team to cruise through the regular season likely makes them no less than a 3-seed. Their bench is unlikely to be as strong as it was last season (Ronny Turiaf is gone and Sasha Vujacic’s success was likely a bit of a fluke, but Jordan Farmar is for real and improving) but it will be about enough.

Last season: won 57 games.

-5 wins from Kobe pacing himself through the regular season.
-3 wins from the loss of Ronny Turiaf and a regression from Sasha Vujacic.
+2 wins from the return of Andrew Bynum.
+3 wins from having Pau Gasol for a whole season.

This season: 54-28.

2- Phoenix: Only in Robert Sarver’s twisted world can trading Shawn Marion (1 year, $17 million contract) and Marcus Banks (3 yrs/$15 million) for Shaquille O’Neal (2 yrs/$40 million) be seen as “saving” money (the Suns cut about $3 million in salary last season in the deal). Just about the only justification for having Shaq around now is that he will be a better locker room fit with the emotional Amare Stoudemire than the high-maintenance Marion was (in his book Can I Keep My Jersey, Paul Shirley related a great story about Stoudemire and Marion almost getting into a locker room brawl during training camp over who got to sit in a nicer chair). The big “last dash” at a title that the Suns tried last year was a failure and now the Suns are forced to waste 2 years of Stoudemire’s prime and most likely the beginning of the end of Nash’s career while waiting for Shaq’s millstone contract to expire. It’s not that Shaq is awful now, but he’s nowhere near the player he once was. He can barely dunk, is too slow to reliably stay out of foul trouble, and cannot be counted on for more than 15-20 minutes a game nowadays. He might still throw up the occasional 25-12 night, but the bad games will outnumber the good so often that it’s barely worth it to leave him on the court long enough to find out if he’s “got it” any particular night.

It’s good that Terry Porter is getting another chance as a head coach, but he’s got his work cut out for him if a title is the goal for this team. A more realistic goal is to try and let Nash and O’Neal cruise into the sunset and to start planning for rebuilding the team around Stoudemire in a couple of years.

Last year: Won 55 games.

-8 wins with Mike D’Antoni’s system gone.
-2 wins from Shaq continuing to slow down.
-2 wins from losing the offensive system that was absolutely perfect for Steve Nash.
+2 wins from Leandro Barbosa taking a larger role.
+2 wins from Amare Stoudemire officially being “the man”.

This year: 47-35.

3- Golden State: In a game of dueling free agent signings, the Warriors essentially traded Baron Davis for Corey Maggette. Just try to spin that one. Okay … Maggette sounds like the perfect Don Nelson player: big, fast, athletic, and doesn’t play any defense. Yeah, that’s not working for me, either. By stockpiling players like Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph in the last couple of drafts and resigning Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis, the Warriors may be set up well for three years down the road but it’s going to get a little ugly this year. At least Ellis seems to be dependable and ready to assert himself as a go-to team leading star. Oh, wait ….

Last year: Won 48 games.

-8 wins from the loss of Baron Davis.
-3 wins from the loss of Monta Ellis for half the season.
+2 wins from the arrival of Andris Biedrins.
+1 win from improvement from Brandan Wright.
-1 win because Steven Jackson (who might have been one of the top five players in the league for a 10-12 game stretch early last year) overachieved.

This year: 39-43.

4- Sacramento: Let’s face it, the Kings are the Bucks of the Western Conference. Small market, not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to be comical, not interesting enough for anyone to care about them except their fans. After several years of weaseling their way out from under the remnants of Chris Webber’s contract, the Kings have wound up with a strange roster that contains Kevin Martin and every conceivable type of big man (except for a good one). You’ve got an unqualified bust (Shelden Williams), a total mystery rookie (Jason Thompson), a once-effective big man who completely lost it two years ago (Brad Miller), a moderately effective player who is on the “league’s most overpaid” short list (Kenny Thomas), and a big man who is so brittle he refused to do the mandatory training camp fitness tests (Spencer Hawes – he hurt his knee running suicides in camp last year, so he refuses to to them this year). And I almost forgot the ultimate example of a fluke season in a contract year getting a midlevel deal (Mikki Moore)Unfortunately, Shareef Abdur-Rahim (“good guy, consummate pro who has the reverse Midas Touch – whenever he arrives on a new team they immediately go to hell”) had to retire this offseason. Reggie Theus and Larry Krystkowiak seemed to have similar problems relating with their players in their rookie seasons as head coaches, but Theus managed to stick around for year two. I don’t think there will be any improvement.

Last year: won 38 games.

-4 wins from the combination of too old and too young frontcourt players.
+1 win from Kevin Martin’s improvement.
-5 wins from the loss of Ron Artest.
+3 wins from the offense running better than with Ron Artest going one-on-one all night.

This year: 33-49.

5- LA Clippers: At first glance, it looks like Elton Brand really screwed over the Clippers. After adding Baron Davis and getting a breakout season from Chris Kaman, it appeared the Clippers were a healthy Brand away from making a run at 50 wins. But then Brand spurned the Clippers and headed off to Philly for less money. However, we might not know the whole story. Everyone knows the Clippers are still the Clippers – which means having the most screwed up front office in the game. For everything we hear about involving Donald Sterling and Elgin Baylor, there are probably a dozen things we don’t – but Brand would know about them all. He had probably had enough of depending on that crew to put together a winner. Meanwhile, I get the feeling that without much of a chance to win and being back at home in LA, Baron Davis (who is interested in getting into film production) won’t be paying much attention on the court within half a season. One bright note? Since Brand was hurt all last season, losing him won’t hurt their record this year compared to last.

Last year: 23 wins.

+6 wins from Baron Davis.
-2 wins from the mismatched Camby/Kaman combo (and the fact that Kaman likely overachieved last year).
-2 wins because they might as well give minutes to Eric Gordon even if he isn’t ready.
-2 wins because they added professional team-killer Ricky Davis.

This year: 23-59.