Time to take a few minutes off from watching our economy melt away and instead focus on the Southeast Division. This division is a good example of the “if you aren’t getting better then you are getting worse” principle.
1 – Orlando: I don’t understand what the deal is with Orlando’s front office. They just hate power forwards and shooting guards. They spent last season with Rashard Lewis playing out of position and got a career year from Hedo Turkoglu, so they used their mid-level exception on … Mickael Pietrus? Based on his new salary, there aren’t many more overrated players in the league (except for Chris Duhon, Darko Milicic … forget I said that). Pietrus is still getting by on his “great defender with an MJ body type” mystique dating back to before he was drafted, but has never done anything to live up to it. So now Orlando has another small forward, mans the power forward with Tony Battie and Brian Cook, and will still give Keith Bogans big minutes at shooting guard. Meanwhile, Dwight Howard will get better but there’s not much chance of Turkoglu doing what he did last year. This team isn’t better, and they overachieved last year.
Won 52 games last year.
-3 games because they overachieved last year.
+2 games because Dwight Howard is still getting better.
-2 games because Turkoglu had a career year and Rashard Lewis is quietly slipping
This year: 49-33
2- Washington: It was strange, after losing Gilbert Arenas, all you heard was how the Wiz’s chemistry was somehow better without Arenas dominating the ball. Yet, that didn’t stop the Wiz from signing Arenas to a 6 year extension, despite the fact that he will now be out until December following another knee procedure. I think that one has to wonder if Arenas will ever be the same.
Last year: 43 wins
6 more wins from the return of Gilbert Arenas
-5 wins from the return of Gilbert Arenas
-2 wins from the decline of Antwan Jamison
1 more win with the return of Etan Thomas
This year: 43-39
3- Miami: Any doubts about Dwyane Wade’s health were removed in the Olympics, and this team now has a really solid core. Add to that the fact that Shaq wasn’t really helping them this year, and this team should make some noise right away with Michael Beasley.
Last year: 15 wins
+16 wins from a healthy Dwyane Wade.
+9 wins from a contract-year Shawn Marion.
+3 wins from Michael Beasley.
-2 wins from downgrading from Shaq/Mourning to Haslem/Blount.
+1 win from Mario Chalmers.
This year: 42-40.
4- Atlanta: I don’t like the idea of Josh Smith getting paid. He’s one of the most unique talents in the game today, but he doesn’t get along with the coach and got jerked around by his team in his free agency. That sounds like a perfect time for a new contract hangover. That said, this team has a pretty good young core of improving players, but I think they take a small step back this year.
Last year: won 37 games.
-2 wins from Josh Smith getting paid by a team he didn’t want to get paid by.
-1 win from the loss of Josh Childress.
2 more wins from a bounce back season from Joe Johnson.
-2 wins from a declining Mike Bibby.
+3 wins from an improving Al Horford.
This year: 37-45.
5- Charlotte: I’ve always felt Larry Brown was overrated. He gets all sorts of credit for “turning teams around”, but his big turnarounds always either coincided with a superstar just entering his prime (Allen Iverson, Reggie Miller, pre-knee Danny Manning) or a major influx of talent (David Robinson and Sean Elliott). The Pistons were ready to win a title before he got there, and he managed to blow the 2004 Olympics by burying LeBron James, Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony on the bench. Meanwhile, Michael Jordan didn’t do anything else to improve his team in the near-term. He drafted a short point guard despite already having a short point guard, and used his other first round pick on a raw, raw player who was playing 5 minutes a game in the French “C” league or something last year. They re-signed Emeka Okafor, but otherwise didn’t do much to improve or address their black hole at power forward.
Last year: won 32 games.
0 change from their personnel moves (re-signed Okafor, welcomed back Adam Morrison)
-2 because Larry Brown will jerk around their young point guards to no end. He hates young players, especially point guards.
This year: 30-52.
2 responses so far ↓
1 Zach // Sep 18, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Good analysis, but I don’t think the Hawks lose two games because of a declining Bibby. He didn’t play the whole season for them and I don’t really think he provided that much to them in the stretch run last year. He probably won’t make much of a difference. The loss of great 6th man Childress will probably hurt the Hawks a little more too.
Also I’d like to speculate that Hedo will continue his performance from last year. At least in the first half because I think he wants to be in the all-star game. pure speculation though.
2 Kimbal // Sep 28, 2008 at 3:27 pm
The analysis for Charlotte was not only spot-on, it was hilarious! Larry Brown being one of the more over-rated coaches in recent memory is obvious, but the observations about the point guards was the best! Why DID they draft a dinky point guard when they already had one anyway?
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