The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Sure, I know training camp hasn’t even started yet. But you know what? It’s still time to bring forth my thumbnail preview of the 08/09 season. I kind of liked how I projected the Bucks’ record a few posts ago, so I did it for the rest of the league. Today, I’m going to cover the Atlantic Division.

1 – Boston: After ending a career of frustration for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, one has to wonder just how aggressively they will go at it this season. It’s only natural – you bust your ass to reach the top of the mountain and realize that, hey, it’s the NBA, we could have won 20 fewer games and still made the playoffs. Shaquille O’Neal’s teams were well known for using the regular season as an extended playoff warm-up, and a little of that attitude will cause the same thing for the Celtics this year. However, barring injury, they will still be really, really good.

Last year: won 66 games.

This year:
-4 wins from a general “I got mine”-itis.
-2 wins from age-related declines for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.
-3 wins from Ray Allen’s decline. Nobody seemed to notice last season that Allen had really dropped off last season, and at his age he is not going to get any better. Eddie House is Allen’s only backup.
+2 wins from continued improvement from Rajon Rondo.
-2 wins from the loss of James Posey. The Celtics bench still has Big Baby and Leon Powe, but after losing the valuable Posey (who played big minutes when Allen had to sit) they took flyers on Patrick O‘Bryant and Darius Miles. Yuck.

Celtics final record in 08/09: 57-25.

2 – Philadelphia: According to my numbers last year, the Sixers were for real last season, and actually underachieved a little. They didn’t lose anyone and added Elton Brand, a perfect complement for their roster. They need shooting, but have plenty of athleticism to make up for it.

Last year: won 40 games.

This year:
+6 wins from the addition of Elton Brand.
+2 wins from budding stud Thaddeus Young.
-1 win for signing Royal Ivey.
+1 win because they underachieved last year.

Sixers’ final record this year: 48-34.

3 – Toronto: While TJ Ford blossomed with the Raptors, Jose Calderon will make them forget about him in a hurry. Overall I like the Ford-O’Neal trade for the Raptors, with the assumption that O’Neal will be able to play at least 70 games and will be healthy for the playoffs. Other than that the Raptors pretty much stood pat this offseason.

Last year: won 41 games.

This year:
+5 wins from a full season of Jermaine O’Neal (and the corresponding banishment of Andrea Bargnani to the bench).
-3 wins since the odds that O’Neal wont get hurt and miss at least 20 games are about 50:1.
+1 win because the TJ Ford/Jose Calderon sideshow has finally been decided.
+3 wins because Chris Bosh is continuing to get better and better.

Raptors final record this year: 47-35.

4 – New York: Lost in all of the “Mike D’Antoni is a coaching genius” hype is this little fact: in the two seasons that D’Antoni has not had Steve Nash as his point guard, he has a 35-76 career record (0.315) which would rank as the 17th worst career record among coaches with over 100 games of experience (one spot ahead of Larry Krystkowiak, incidentally). I have my doubts about D’Antoni’s system without the unique collection of talent he had as his disposal. He simply ignores defense, so the only way the Suns were able to stop anyone was through the incredible athleticism of Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion. The Knicks roster is pretty much the worst possible collection of “talent” that D’Antoni could find for his system – slow, lazy plodders like Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry and, even worse, shot-happy chuckers like Jamal Crawford and Nate Robinson. I can just see Crawford telling D’Antoni: “You want a shot in seven seconds or less? I can get one up in three seconds, no problem!” I foresee Crawford firing up 500 pull-up three pointers with 20+ on the shot clock this season. It’s going to be ugly in NY. On the bright side, at least D’Antoni will actually try to coach the Knicks this season, unlike what Isiah Thomas did last year.

Last year: won 23 games.

+14 wins by having a coach that cares.
-8 wins from having the worst imaginable collection of talent for D’Antoni’s system.
+2 wins from the nights that Jamal Crawford is hot.
-6 wins from the nights that Jamal Crawford is ice cold – but that’s never stopped him from firing away before.

Knicks final record this year: 25-57.

5 – New Jersey: Don’t you just feel bad for everyone involved here? The organization is obviously trying to clear cap room for their 2010 run at LeBron, meaning that most of the players (everyone except for Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Sean Williams and maybe Yi Jianlian) know that they are only there as salary cap-filling bookmarks. Vince Carter is sure to either be traded or pull his “Half Man/Half Invisible” act he perfected in Toronto. Devin Harris is blossoming into an excellent player, but the Nets are going to be completely irrelevant for a couple of more years.

Last year: won 34 games.

-6 wins by not having Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, or Vince Carter (whether he is on the court or not).
+2 wins from the growth of Devin Harris.
-4 wins from “trying to develop the youngsters and/or 25 year olds masquerading as youngsters” as Lopez and Yi get minutes they don’t deserve in the name of “player development”.
-4 wins from most of the team realizing that there is absolutely no “team concept” ‘at work here that includes them, so they may as well just gun for their own stats.

Nets final record this year: 22-60.

It’s an interesting division. Boston clearly remains one of the top four teams in the conference (assuming the big three, and particularly Garnett, stays healthy) while Philadelphia and Toronto should be interesting for all the right reasons. The Knicks should remain a sideshow (but not quite the comical one they have been).

Up next: the Southeast.