The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Now that the lottery is done, it’s time to move on to the most meaningless thing I could possibly do — writing a draft projection. It’s silly to act as though I have some sort of insight into the thought processes of every GM in the league, and could likely do no better than getting 2 or 3 picks correct.

But I’m not letting that stop me. Here’s how I see the picks by the 14 lottery teams shaking out.

As I have been writing, I have plenty of opinions about who should be taken in what order, but tonight I’m going to write about who will be taken. I’m not really looking at my rankings, but more importantly am considering team needs and the perceived value of the available talent.

1-Chicago: Derrick Rose. It’s tough to say whether the Bulls will go for Rose or Michael Beasley, but I think that when the chips are down that John Paxson will be more interested in the potential of the home-grown Rose over the low-post ability of Beasley. With Ben Gordon’s contract status up in the air and the Bulls so heavily invested in the progress of Tyrus Thomas (after trading LaMarcus Aldridge for him), I think that in the end Paxson will go for the guard.

2-Miami: Michael Beasley. Talk about a no-lose situation — either the Heat get a next-generation point guard or a low-post force to remind people of the Shaq/Wade combination. Miami would be just about the perfect destination for Beasley.

3-Minnesota: Brook Lopez. Kevin McHale has already talked about how he felt that the main thing he wants to change about his team for next season will be to add a center to allow Al Jefferson to move to his natural power forward. Of course, Lopez is completely the wrong type of center to install alongside Jefferson (a weak rebounder whose main skill is scoring), but never put it beyond McHale to ignore something like that.

4-Seattle: Kevin Love. In one final insult to Seattle fans before their team sneaks off to Oklahoma, they take the local kid. According to ESPN.com’s Chad Ford, Love has been working hard to alleviate the major concern about him – his weight. He has dropped 13 pounds (to 258) since the end of the NCAA Tournament, and should his conditioning translate to solid workouts he would likely fly up draft boards. Sonics’ GM Sam Presti is an excellent judge of talent would would be more likely to take a player who has proven himself as a good player rather than a raw athlete. Love’s game should complement Kevin Durant well, as he can play power forward or center, depending on which forward position Durant matures into. Seattle could also use backcourt help, but Love would be too talented for the Sonics to pass up.

5-Memphis: Anthony Randolph. A team going nowhere may as well take a flyer. After denuding their roster in the Pau Gasol trade, the Grizzlies have two valuable pieces in place in Mike Conley and Rudy Gay. This means that they don’t need a small forward (Danilo Galinari), and undersized guard (Jerryd Bayless, Eric Gordon) or a potential headache (OJ Mayo). Randolph has been compared favorably to Chris Bosh, and with the Grizzlies so far away from competing they can afford to wait a year or two for him to blossom.

6-New York: Jerryd Bayless. With Mike D’Antoni in place, Bayless looks like the type of guy to fit into his system well. He’s probably the best athlete available, and point guard is the only position where the Knicks would be likely to grab a starter in this draft. Early rumors had Donnie Walsh tabbing Texas A&M center DeAndre Jordan, but that wouldn’t make any sense.

7-LA Clippers: OJ Mayo. Even if Mayo eventually becomes something closer to Larry Hughes than an all-star (I believe he’s not as talented as many people think) he could fit in extremely well with the Clippers. If Shaun Livingston should come back (a big if), then the Clippers could roll out a starting five next season of Livingston, Mayo, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Chris Kaman — a lineup that would see Mayo as the smallest player but probably the best athlete (which is a complement). Mayo fills a need.

8-Milwaukee: Eric Gordon. As I have written before, I would prefer that the Bucks trade down to get Richard Hendrix, but at this point in the draft there are two “top” prospects left in Gordon and Danilo Gallinari (”top” in quotations because I have real questions about both of them). Even though Gordon doesn’t really fill a need here, I think that the Kelvin Sampson connection will see Gordon wearing a Bucks jersey next season. With his devastatingly quick first step, I think there is a chance that Gordon could become a special Dwyane Wade-type player at some point, but not immediately. However, he would combine with Ramon Sessions to form a pretty potent second unit backcourt next season. Keep an eye on Gordon’s predraft measurements — if he turns out to be 6′2″ instead of 6′3″ he might fall out of the top 15, but if he is 6′4″ he might be gone before the Bucks get their pick.

9: Charlotte: Roy Hibbert. Much like Minnesota, the Bobcats need a center who can allow Emeka Okafor to move out of the post. Michael Jordan loves drafting proven college players (preferably ones who will really suck in the pros), and Hibbert fills the bill perfectly. Hibbert is huge, slow, and had a productive college career. But guys like him — over 7 feet and over 270 pounds — rarely develop into much more than borderline starters. However, after seeing Jordan draft players like Juan Dixon, Jared Jefferies and Adam Morrison, I just can’t imagine him taking a younger, less proven player with Hibbert available.

10: New Jersey: Danilo Gallinari. Despite the presence of Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter, Gallinari will prove too tantalizing a prospect to pass on at #10. He’s a couple of years away, but it will take that long for enough years to drop off of Jefferson’s contract for him to become tradeable.

11: Indiana: DJ Augustin. They have been desperate to move Jamaal Tinsley’s off-court baggage for years, and Augustin could be ready to step in behind him quickly. However, all of the off-court stuff dragged the Pacers’ attendance to dead last in the league this past season, and they might be desperate to make a splash — such as by obtaining local product Eric Gordon. Perhaps a trade with the Bucks here? The #8 pick (Gordon) for the #11 and Indiana’s first rounder next year? It’s a little early to take Hendrix here (unless some other GM’s read this blog, in which case the Bucks better grab him here) but Indiana’s pick next year could be #1 overall.

12: Sacramento: Russell Westbrook. After Kevin Martin, this team has a lot of problems. Westbrook is probably the most highly-regarded player available at this point.

13: Portland: Chase Budinger. Portland is kind of the opposite of Sacramento — they don’t really have any pressing needs. I’m not as high on Budinger as many people seem to be (he doesn’t shoot well for a supposed great shooter, and doesn’t put up very well-rounded numbers for a supposedly well-rounded player), but the Blazers would love to find a player who can both back up Brandon Roy a little and also bring some better defensive presence to the small forward spot.

14: Golden State: Ty Lawson. Lets see, who is the best available athlete? Best case scenario is that Lawson explodes onto the scene and pushes Baron Davis out of the door, the more likely scenario is that he becomes a nice change-of-pace backup (tongue planted in cheek — the only way Lawson “changes” the Golden State pace of play is to make them play faster). Despite being only 5′11″, I actually think Lawson will be pretty good. He’s incredibly fast and pretty strong.

So when it’s all said and done, how many picks will I have called correctly? I’d guess … I’d be doing well if I get four.