The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

It’s funny how in all the major sports the balance of power has shifted so dramatically away from the conferences and leagues that the teams we root for in Wisconsin. The American League makes the National League look like AAA. The AFC thoroughly dominates the NFC (well, until it really matters). And the Eastern Conference is so ridiculously bad compared to the Western Conference that a 35 win team will make the playoffs this season.

And that team will be the Milwaukee Bucks.

Laugh if you must. Say “homer!” if you will. But it’s highly likely. Of the seven teams scrambling for the final two playoff spots in the East, the Bucks have three advantages. They have the most favorable schedule. They have the most home games. And they have the best home-court record.

The Bucks have 20 home games remaining and 14 road games. To this point in the season they have won 62% of their home games and 18% of their road games, so that projects to 33 wins for the season. If every other team’s home/road percentages remain constant then the Bucks would tie with Indiana for the ninth spot, missing out on the playoffs by two games.
How can the Bucks get from 18 to 35 wins in the season’s final 34 games?

I looked at the remaining schedule and divided each game into four categories: games the Bucks will definitely get blown out in, the games they should lose, the “winnable” games, games they absolutely should win, and games I can’t figure out.

Blowout losses: at Dallas, Detroit, at Detroit, San Antonio, Utah, Boston (2), at Boston, at Toronto

Should lose: New Orleans, Denver, at New Jersey, at Washington (2), Orlando, at Chicago

Winnable: at Indiana (2), at Atlanta, New York (2), Indiana, Chicago

Should Win: at Memphis, LA Clippers, Seattle, at Miami, Miami, at Minnesota

I’m not sure: Cleveland (2), Portland, Philadelphia, New Jersey

So if the Bucks win the games they should win and lose the games they should lose that puts them at 31 wins with 5 “not sure” games. So figure they lose two of the games they should win, steal two games they should lose and go 3-2 in the five toss-up games. That’s 34 wins.

Now, will that be enough?

One thing the Bucks have going for them is that they are done with their West coast trips. They only have two games remaining West of the Mississippi (at Dallas and at Minnesota) so they don’t have much travel remaining. How do the other challengers for the last spots stack up?

Atlanta: Currently holding the #8 spot, they have the inside track at finishing at #7. They have one more road game than home remaining, and have a road trip coming up next week that sees them with six west coast games (and a home game sprinkled in there). This team actually seems to be maturing into something halfway decent, and they should hold on to a playoff spot , as long as they can muster up the six road wins they need.

New Jersey: A recent nine game losing streak has this team is circling the drain. It now appears that Jason Kidd won’t get traded (as Dallas has backed out of the bidding) and that Vince Carter has already decided that with a new contract it isn’t worth it to him to try very hard. They also have a five game west coast trip coming up in March. While I could see this team collapsing, they have always given the Bucks fits , and the April 12 Bucks-Nets game could be the final determinant of which of these teams gets the 8 seed.

Indiana: The Pacers have a favorable schedule , 20 home games to 15 road games, and their only west coast run is a quick jaunt to lose at Houston and San Antonio. But the difference between them and the Bucks is that the Pacers have been lousy at home this season (43%). They have been playing at the second highest pace in the league all season but use a short bench (only six players average 20+ minutes, but does Kareem Rush really count as a player?). A late season fade would not be a surprise as exhaustion catches up to Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley and injury fells Jermaine O’Neal. The Pacers are currently on a 1-8 streak in games without O’Neal.

Chicago: The one team of the bunch that I’d worry about being able to “turn it on” and get hot, but they haven’t shown any sort of ability to do that thus far. They have a balanced home/away schedule the rest of the year, but have been poor both at home and on the road all season (43%/35%). I thought this team was a title contender, so obviously I am the last person to pass judgment on their prospects, but I feel that if any team out of this group might be able to get hot and make a run, this is it.

Philadelphia: How is it possible to win 39% of your home games? Despite the fact the Bucks have made them look like world-beaters twice, this Sixers team is awful.

Charlotte: They have an absolutely brutal schedule. 8 more road games than home, and they essentially spend all of March on an extended west coast trip that has a couple of random day trips back East for home games sprinkled in. The Bobcats have no chance with their schedule.

Doesn’t it make sense that the Bucks can catch either Atlanta or New Jersey and hold off the rest of the East? The Bucks might not be the best team, but they have a very realistic shot against the other contenders. For all the complaining about the Bucks roster, most of these other teams have it much worse.

Of course the only problem is that should the Bucks get the 8 seed, they will be the answer of a trivia question for a long time: “Who was the worst team (by record) to ever get a playoff spot in the NBA?”

As far as I’m concerned, I hope the Bucks get the 8 seed instead of the 7. I’d rather see them get blown out by Boston twice than by Detroit.

So that’s it , I’m a believer. I have one more flare of optimism left in me. Barring a run of injuries, this team will be in the playoffs come April. That makes Tuesday night’s game against Memphis extremely important. Blow it against the Grizzlies and all bets are off.