I’ve updated IPM and Power Rankings this week, links available as aways on the side of the page, and I’ve got some thoughts about the Lakers and Phoenix games.
First of all, it sure was nice to see the Bucks be competetive on the road against a couple of good teams. These last two games are literally the only times the Bucks have not been blown out when up against tough competetion. Of course, they still managed to trail by double digits late in the 4th quarter of both games, so it’s not like they were going to win them, but it’s better than losing by 35.
Of course, these games coincided with two of the fastest paced games that Milwaukee has played this season, and they illustrated the advantages and disadvantages of running more:
The Bucks’ personnel is much better suited for a running attack. Andrew Bogut had two excellent games against top competition (although his counterparts had even better games both times), shooting 19-28 in the two games, grabbing 22 rebounds and dishing 8 assists vs. two turnovers. He might not be the most athletic guy, but he can run with the best big men. Despite playing poorly, Yi looked much more comfortable in a faster offense, as he actually got some post touches (gotta go up strong when you’ve got a size mismatch, though!) and put the ball on the floor agressively. More running equals more shots for the Bucks’ talented offensive players.
The problem was that the rebounding really suffered at a higher pace. The Bucks were outrebounded badly in both games (which I believe is the first time that’s happened this season) , 46-41 against the Lakers and 34-27 against Phoenix. Getting outrebounded like that against Phoenix, the worst rebounding team in the league, is unacceptable but somewhat justified when you figure that the Bucks’ rebounding strength has been their offensive rebounding and they did shoot 56% for the game, limiting their chances. Still, not enough crashing the boards.
The Bucks really needed the flu virus to stop Kobe Bryant, because it was pretty obvious that their defense couldn’t. I’ve sorry, Coach K, but 6’3″ Charlie Bell cannot check Kobe. Between Bell, Ivey and a returning Redd there was not much of a chance they would keep Kobe from doing whatever he wanted. So isn’t that the perfect time to use Villanueva at the 3 and move Simmons to shooting guard for a stretch or two? It makes sense against the Lakers — they start Luke Walton at small forward, who isn’t particularly fast or a shooter but is a great passer. Wouldn’t the long arms of Villanueva make him a tough matchup for Walton? Then you can use a defender against Kobe who is a better physical match for him than Bell. It’s not like Villanueva was having an awful game — he scored 8 points and got 4 rebounds and two assists against one turnover in only 15 minutes — or that he had to play because Yi was struggling. Mo was playing well and is perfectly capable of running the offense. So why not go big?
So even though Villanueva is seeing his minutes cut as Yi’s increases (36 minutes in the two games for V, against 50 for Yi), Charlie V now has a higher IPM than Yi. There’s nothing wrong with using Yi (who only played 17 minutes when he struggled against Phoenix) but has to be more time for V.
Meanwhile, Gadzuric didn’t see the court in either game. I really think he should be getting a few minutes a night — he’s played well in his limited minutes the last month.
Well, two losses in games the Bucks weren’t supposed to win. But it’s encouraging to see them play well after just a couple of weeks ago when it looked like they were about ready to give up and mail in the rest of the season.
3 responses so far ↓
1 Kevsui // Jan 14, 2008 at 12:46 pm
I have a couple additional observations from the weekend as well.
Why can’t Michael Redd finish games anymore? He is our “superstar” player and we get him the ball in the closing minutes of every game and it’s getting to the point where he can’t even get off a shot anymore. I’m all for him becoming a better overall player, but he needs to stop forcing it and let the game come to him. Everyone just stands around and watches him when he starts one of his dribbling exhibitions and you know he’s going to shoot it.
ALL high pick and pop/rolls should be ran through Yi. Only Yi has a versatile enough game. There is no sense running the pick through Bogut because he’s obviously going to roll to the basket. Same with Charie V and Bobby Simmons except they will definitely pop and shoot from the outside. Since Yi can drive and shoot, he can read the defense and catch them out of position. Our offense is so predictable and we don’t keep teams guessing on defense. Why do you think we always end up jacking up some terrible fade away jump shot as the shot clock expires?
The offense should run through Bogut. He needs to stand near the free throw line (NOT 3 point!) and should receive the first pass on offense. Then, run cutters to the basket from both sides. This creates non-stop movement and easier shots. Our guards will never be pass-first guys, so Bogut is our best option. He’s an excellent passer and he plays a lot harder when he’s involved in the offense more. Note to Coach K: Stop playing our best rebounder outside of the 3-point line!
Bobby Simmons is a lost cause. I hope Coach K is serious about playing only those who earn it by playing hard. If that’s true, Bobby should find himself sitting with Danny G every night. I was real high on this guy when he arrived and he’s really lost his game this year. Maybe it’s from the injury. Maybe its his mysterious absences from games. I do agree on defense that we should match him up on bigger 2 guards. Charlie Bell is too small to play guys like Kobe for long periods of time. At least Simmons can muscle them around for a while.
It’s good to see a little more heart from this group. It’s easy to give up on a season when the losing starts. Players like Mo, Bell, and Ivey clearly have been playing with more intensity. Intensity doesn’t always lead to wins but I can respect guys who play their hearts out like the way they did for Terry Porter.
We’re only 3 games out of the playoffs with a favorable second half schedule. We’re not out of this yet!
2 Ray // Jan 14, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Hello. My name is Ray Flowers and I wanted to touch bases with you regarding your work in the area of basketball and was especially intetested in your IPM work.
The reason I bring this is up is because I have the opportunity to put together a crack staff of freelance writers to cover fantasy basketball for an industry leader. I’m looking for a handful of writers to write a weekly fantasy basketball article, and thought I would reach out to you to gauge your level of interest.
If you wouldn’t mind, could you send me a brief bio of yourself, as well as any thoughts you might have on the matter? I would be greatly appreciative. We could then enter in a discussion about the available positions and see if we might be able to find a fit that will work for both of us.
Ray Flowers
3 Brett Boyer // Jan 14, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Kevsui, thanks for the comment.
I think Redd’s end-game problems and poor shot selection stems from playing too much small forward — the more physical matchups were leaving him gassed at the end of the game. Tons of lazy, flat footed shots — a sign that he was getting too tired to cross over and drive the lane.
I agree with your other analysis, except that I don’t think the high post is the best place for Bogut since he has no jumper. If he had a deadeye 15 footer in his arsenal then he’d have more passing lanes open to him. You can see it in his assist averages, which are at a career low this season. Defenders are sagging off of him, taking away the back door looks he used to find. Until he gets a jumper, he should be stationed on the low blocks.
Leave a Comment