The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

According to Charles Gardner in the Journal Sentinel, the Bucks might have to give it a go against Washington without Michael Redd:

“Bucks guard Michael Redd did not practice today after suffering a deep left thigh bruise in Milwaukee’s 103-98 victory over the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.

Redd was listed as day-to-day, and it was uncertain if he would be available for the Bucks home game against the Washington Wizards on Friday night.”

While you’d think I’d immediately run up the “Charlie Bell is starting, we are screwed” white flag, I’d say that isn’t the case against the Wizards. As Washington’s starting shooting guard, DeShawn Stevenson has been as bad as Bell this season. Stevenson has shot very poorly (.375) and has an IPM of 0.5554, almost identical to Bell’s 0.5543. By IPM, they rank as the 296th and 297th best players in the league. So that matchup is actually a push by the numbers. However, for Bell to shoot so badly and still have a similar IPM as Stevenson, he has had to play a little better than him in the other aspects of the game.

However, the arrival of Caron Butler to town means that Bobby Simmons will have to be on his game in a big way tonight. Butler is having a fantastic season in the absence of Gilbert Arenas, raising his shooting percentage to 50% as well as averaging a career high 4.4 assists per 40 minutes. He’s giving the Wizards 40 solid minutes every game. If Simmons gives a lame 15 minutes and then Krystkowiak switches Bell onto him … it’s going to be a really, really long night.

So, please, Coach …. try Villanueva on Butler! Someone other than Simmons will have to guard him for 20 minutes, so lets compare the relative merits of having Bell on Butler vs. Villanueva:

Bell:
– Gives more energetic defense
– Gives up several inches and 20 pounds to Butler, so no matter how hard he tries there is only so much he can do
– Has a much higher steal and block total than Villanueva
– Is not only having a miserable offensive season, but playing him at small forward also means that Ivey will be in the game. The combination severely limits the Bucks’ offense

Villanueva:
– Has a height/weight advantage on Butler, so can lean on him and make him work more for his points
– Has had a problem with losing his man, so Butler will still get his share of easy ones
– Long arms can cause some problems for Butler’s passing
– A far superior offensive talent than Bell, so he can probably draw some fouls on Butler and score a little to make up for what he allows
– Yi can be in the game with Villanueva, but only either Bell or Ivey will be in as well, significantly improving the Bucks’ team offense

My conclusion? The only real advantage to having Bell on Butler is that his generally higher effort level might result in some more turnovers. But Butler is still talented and big enough to get a shot off over Bell whenever he wants. Villanueva at least offers the benefit of improving the Bucks’ offense to the point that they might be able to make up for their defensive shortcomings on the other end of the floor.