The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

It’s easy to pick apart all of Harris’ moves with the benefit of hindsight, but you know what hindsight also shows? That no matter what he did, a best case scenario is that this team was pretty much stuck in the 40-45 win range. There were some rumors before last season (before the Villanueva trade) that the Bucks were close to getting Carlos Boozer. That would have been nice, but all the other injuries would have still kept last years’ team in the lottery. Even the Paul/Bogut question doesn’t send the Bucks deep into the playoffs , New Orleans has yet to even get there with Paul.

Even Harris’ bad moves haven’t really cost the Bucks much. Besides costing a second shot a Paul Millsap, his mistakes just mean that the end of the bench will be relatively expensive 3 years from now.

However, there are some lessons to be learned from Harris’ moves; both his mistakes and accomplishments:

1: Long term contracts to non-starters are mistakes.

While there are rare exceptions, almost all long-term deals to non-all-star players are mistakes in the long run. Especially in the case of non-starters like Gadzuric and Bell. While it sounds nice to have stability at those reserve positions, in reality long contracts create more problems than they are worth. If you want to make a trade it’s harder to throw in one of these bench players to make the salaries work. If you get lucky in the draft or sign someone good from Europe, then you probably wind up with a better, cheaper player than the long-term guy but don’t get the advantage of having a trade chip. And if the player in question winds up not playing up to his contract “¦ ugh.

2: Hoarding second round draft picks is important.

As the draft has become so much more top-heavy with young and foreign players, second round picks have become more valuable sources of backup players (such as those with major international or college experience). In the last 4 years, 18 second rounders are still paying dividends (Varejao, Ivey, Duhon, Ariza, CJ Miles, Turiaf, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche, Ryan Gomes, Amir Johnson, Craig Smith, Daniel Gibson, Alexander Johnson, Paul Millsap, Chiekh Samb, Glen Davis, Jemareo Davidson, plus nine more from the 2003 draft). That means that a second rounder has about a 20% chance of being a good pick, and it’s a cheap investment , usually 2 years at the minimum with a team option on the second.

3: Building through free agency is risky, risky business.

People knock the Bucks for signing Bobby Simmons, but that’s unfair. First of all, the entire free agent class of 2005 , except for Michael Redd and Gerald Wallace , was total busts. Second, the Bucks had the cap room and they had to use it. It’s not like you can just decide not to bother using your space, hold it for next year, and sell that to your fan base. However, superstar players don’t just spring out of nowhere. When Simmons blossomed into a moderately above average player, that’s what he was. And because there aren’t that many good options in free agency, you have to overpay to get guys like him.

So here it is , Harris has had some hits, had some misses, but his tenure as GM was screwed before he ever got the job. He was shafted by Ernie Grunfeld twice and condemmed to chasing free agents to build his team.

“Denver trades Kevin Willis and Aleksandr Radojevic to Milwaukee for Scott Williams and a future first round pick (2004). Milwaukee trades Willis to Houston for a 2002 second round draft pick”

“Milwaukee trades Ray Allen, Ronald Murray and a first round pick (2003) to Seattle for Gary Payton and Desmond Mason”

That 2004 first round pick would cost the Bucks Josh Smith. Smith may be a head case, but he’s a difference maker. This would be a 50+ win team with him. The 2003 pick wasn’t as vital, since it only became Luke Ridnour, but who knows what might have happened with the Bucks holding two top 15 picks in a great draft (and David West, Travis Outlaw and Josh Howard still available at #14).

So all in all, Harris has done a pretty good job. He’s built a competitive team without the necessary draft picks to do the job right.