The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

One day he is touted as the next big thing, and the next he seems to be invisible. Something is up with our man Yi Jianlian. What’s going on?

As per-game IPM rankings show, through 19 games Yi had his 4 best efforts early in the season (Chicago, Toronto, at Houston, at San Antonio) while his last 6 games have been among the 9 worst he has played (except for the Golden State game — More on that later).

The most obvious problem is that Yi is getting fewer shots. After taking between 10 and 15 shots in the 5 games between Nov. 3 and Nov. 14, he has only exceeded double digits in shot attempts twice in the last 12 games.

However, even more disturbingly, his blocks and steals totals have dropped off dramatically. He totaled 18 blocks + steals in his first 6 games, but only 11 in the next 12. His playing time has been pretty consistent, so the only explainations for the block and steal dropoff are (1) matchups, (2) foul trouble, (3) a lack of effort or (4) the first 6 games were a fluke.

Unfortunately, you can pretty much eliminate the first two reasons, as if anything the Bucks’ early schedule was harder than the last 12 games, and he hasn’t picked up more than 3 fouls in 13 games. So maybe he’s tired (which is a little disturbing in itself this early in the season) or perhaps he’s not as athletic as advertised.

There is one major indicator that the problem is the latter — 82games.com shows that Yi has been getting a simply massive number of his shots thrown back in his face. According to them, 25% of his dunk attempts and fully 41% of his other “close in” shot attempts have been rejected. Because he shoots such a high percentage of jumpers his overall percentage of shots blocked doesn’t sound that bad (11%) but I haven’t been able to find many other players who have even close to that total sent back. For comparisons sake, Kevin Durant has had 6% of his shots blocked and Jeff Green 8%, and both of them shoot a much higher percentage of their shots close to the basket.

While these stats are discouraging, there might be a more benign explanation — maybe he’s learning the hard way that NBA athletes are a lot more powerful than the guys he saw in the Chinese league.

The next problem — how can this guy get some more shots?

It seems like a similar refrain — Williams shoots too much at the expense of Redd! Bogut doesn’t get enough shots! Yi doesn’t shoot enough! All the more reason that the Bucks need to push the pace more, as I mentioned a couple of posts ago. They have too many good offensive players to be playing at pace in the bottom third of the league. Mo, Redd and Bogut are all high-efficiency shooters, and all Yi needs to do to be just as high-percentage as them is substitute a few of the 22-footers with (unblocked) short shots. Also it’s worth noting that the only good game Yi has had recently was the Golden State game, which was played at by far the highest pace the Bucks have seen in weeks.

Some of it is on Yi himself. Yi’s slow stretch started after the Houston game, when he was guarded — effectively — for a long stretch by Tracy McGrady. Teams have seemed to realize that Yi will not post up much, and by putting a smaller guy on him it is easier to deny him the ball. Also, a smaller, faster defender keeps Yi from putting the ball on the floor (which I’ve only seen him do twice this season — against big guys Bosh and Nowitzki) so it limits him to the 22 footers that he seems so enamored with. Well, any team is going to give the best shooter in the world 22-footers all night, since he’s not going to hit more than 40% of them and he’ll never draw any fouls that way. So Yi is kind of playing into the defenses hands here. Being guarded by a smaller player also probably adds to the block totals against him, because instead of having a big guy leaning on him so he knows where the defender is, that same big man comes at him from the weak side on his rare forays into the lane to swat his shots away.

Of course, it’s not all his fault — the coaching staff has to be directing him to get in the post and telling the team to get him the ball. I can remember one time where Yi had a mismatch in the post, was calling for the ball, and Mo simply ignored him and swung the ball around the perimeter. That should get Mo benched (mild exaggeration, but still).

So what’s the problem here? His effort must be wavering a little, indicated by the block and steal totals. But we all know there will be some growing pains with him, and it’s time for him to feel those pains while inflicting some damage in the post. He’ll still get some shots blocked, he’ll foul out a few times. But seeing him involved and operating within 8 feet of the basket is better than what he’s been doing.