The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

It’s a common complaint about NBA GM’s that they don’t have the balls to pull off any big trades and that they would rather do nothing rather than take a risk. There may be something to that attitude, but the truth is that NBA trades are very difficult to consummate with all of the trade restrictions and salary cap considerations. The fact is that a big trade now will often completely hamstring you for the future, and if GM wants to trade a guy the chances are that they want to trade him because something is wrong with him.

But that didn’t stop me from trying to put together some trade scenarios for the Bucks. I came up with 14 possibilities, 3 or 4 of which might be considered by both teams. But, honestly, it’s tough to come up with realistic trades that wouldn’t be rejected immediately by one of the parties. But here we go:

First of all, there are so many restrictions on members of the Bucks roster that there aren’t too many trade pieces available. As newly-signed free agents the following players cannot be traded at least until Mid-December: Bell, Ivey, Mason, Ruffin, Storey, Voskuhl and Williams. The Bucks aren’t going to look to trade Bogut, Yi, or Redd. That leaves only Gadzuric, Noel, Sessions, Simmons and Villanueva as potential trade bait.

The other problem is that except for Villanueva the other players would have almost zero trade value around the league based on their talent. Any GM would probably immediately reject any deal for Bobby Simmons until he has proven he is healthy. Gadzuric’s contract is so long that he would be rejected unless the other team is really desperate for a big man or is sending back an even worse contract.

I ran all of the trade ideas through ESPN’s Trade Machine, and they all would work under the cap. Except for a couple of the trades, I didn’t assume draft picks would be included.

So, with all that in mind, here go the trade proposals:

Charlie Villanueva and Bobby Simmons to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko. The main reason for Utah to do this deal is money — they would save almost $30 million over the next 4 seasons and would have Simmons and (probably) Villanueva off the books by 2010, which is when extensions for Boozer and Deron Williams kick in. Kirilenko had a bad season last year and didn’t fit well in their system, plus he demanded a trade in the offseason. For the Bucks, this would be a sort of “all-in” big money move that would give them a very expensive, inflexible lineup fpr 4 years. Kirilenko would bring Milwaukee exactly what they need — defense — and his shooting shortcomings wouldn’t be a problem. Ultimately, though, Utah would decline this deal — Kirilenko is too important to their team defense to give up.

Dan Gadzuric to Charlotte for Adam Morrison and Jared Dudley. With Sean May out for the year and Primoz Brezec’s game declining to … well … something worse than Gadzuric, it would depend on how close Michael Jordan feels the Bobcats are to prime time. Would Gadzuric be a good player alongside Emeka Okafor? I doubt it, but you never know with MJ’s eye for talent. Morrison’s contract is only guaranteed through this season (so he would probably never play for the Bucks) and Dudley is a rookie making only $1.1 million this year, so the Bucks would save $20 million over the next 4 years. Dudley is an intriguing player, a combo forward who has already shown a solid nose for the ball and could be a good backup at both forward positions. However, I’m sure even Michael Jordan would turn down this trade, as Dudley is already better than Gadzuric and it’s a lot to ask for him to give up on Morrison so soon (although he probably should).

Simmons to Denver for Nene. This would be a dumb bad-contract swap for both teams. The Bucks would be getting the more expensive, more injury prone player who would be a career backup, while Denver would weaken their frontcourt. I only included this deal because it has been rumored in the past.

Villanueva to Golden State for Brandan Wright. This is an intriguing deal. Wright is getting no court time in Golden State, with Don Nelson preferring to play veterans. Villanueva would fit in perfectly in Nelson’s run-and-gun scheme. While Wright would take at least a season to blossom, at the very least he would provide an inexpensive backup to Bogut and Yi for 5 years. I think this would be a fair trade, and would be a huge boost to Villanueva’s career.

Gadzuric and David Noel to Houston for Steve Novak, Rafer Alston, and Luther Head. A good team with an eye on the championship can never have too many big, active bodies and Houston would probably be interested in getting rid of Alston, who was arrested twice in the offseason. Alston insists that neither incident was his fault, but his reputation around the league has dropped to somewhere between “bad guy” and “guy who bad stuff always seems to find” and Houston has Steve Francis available to take Alston’s minutes. Alston has 3 years left on his deal, so the Bucks would save 1 year and about $12 million in this trade. Head is a solid combo guard who can play some point, play good defense, and hit open shots. He would allow the Bucks to pursue trade opportunities for Charlie Bell, as Head does the same things for 1/3 the salary. Novak would sell some tickets. My guess is that the Rockets would jump at this trade if Head was not included and might take it if he was, but the Bucks would probably be very leery at the trail of problems that have followed Alston wherever he has been.

Gadzuric to Houston for Kirk Snyder, Luther Head, Steve Novak, and Carl Landry. Another version of the same trade that the Bucks would most likely jump at. Snyder is in the last year of his deal and is not getting any playing time, while Landry would throw another Milwaukee native into the mix. Would Houston gut the end of their bench and take on an extra $20+ million in long term salary to add a big man who can’t stay on the floor? I’d like to say so, but I doubt it.

Villanueva to Minnesota for Mark Madsen and Craig Smith. Smith was a steal in last season’s draft who is already the T-Wolves’ second best player while Madsen is one of the worst players in the NBA and has 3 years left on his contract. Smith would fit well on the Bucks, though, as he would bring tenacious rebounding and “bruiser” ability to a team that sorely needs it. Smith has a similar skill set as Al Jefferson, so the T-Wolves might be willing to include him if the reward is talent like Villanueva and getting rid of dead weight like Madsen. More likely, though, they would turn down the deal as they probably think they are set at forward for years with Jefferson and Brewer.

Gadzuric and Villanueva to New Jersey for Antoine Wright and Jason Collins. Once again, this is more of a salary dump than a talent upgrade for the Bucks. Wright is a bust who has shown some signs of life early in this season while Collins is a defensive-minded center who is owed $12 million over the next two seasons. This would save the Bucks $13 million in the long run, but the addition of Villanueva would be a big upgrade for New Jersey. This is a trade that I could see New Jersey doing (except that they need Wright with Vince Carter out right now) but the Bucks declining.

Gadzuric to New Orleans for Bobby Jackson. A dumb deal for both teams, except that Jackson only has two years left on his contract instead of 4. Kind of a pointless trade for both teams.

Gadzuric to Orlando for Pat Garrity and JJ Redick. A blatant salary dump by the Bucks, but one which Orlado might consider in their leave-no-stone-unturned efforts to find a power forward. Garrity is awful and Redick has yet to show himself to be remotely close to being an NBA athlete, but this could save the Bucks as much as $20 million. However, with 3 more years of Tony Battie and Howard’s extension starting next year, Orlando would probably rather sign a scrap-heap free agent instead of taking on a long contract.

Simmons and Gadzuric to Washington for Caron Butler and Darius Songalia. I only put this deal in the list because … well … it’s hard to come up with deals. Is Washington serious about blowing up their roster before Arenas opts out? Are the Wizards that anxious to add a big men with Etan Thomas’ season over and career in some doubt? Are they trading an All-Star for two bad contracts? No. Michael Jordan isn’t running the show there anymore.

Simmons to Phoenix for Boris Diaw and Marcus Banks. The Bucks would be adding a lot of salary in this deal and wouldn’t even begin to consider it unless Phoenix threw in lots of cash and multiple draft picks. I think we can write off Diaw’s 2005-06 season that got him his $45 million contract as a huge fluke and Banks has been horrendous for his whole career. The ever-cost sensitive Suns would love this offer, but it would be a bad idea for the Bucks that would send them careening off into luxury tax payment.

Simmons and Villanueva to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Brian Cook and a #1 pick. Would this satisfy Kobe? Probably not, but it would upgrade the Lakers’ talent level without removing much. Odom and Villanueva in the same lineup would be very intriguing, and Simmons’ shooting would help them as well. Imagine a Lakers “big” lineup (Phil Jackson’s favorite) of Bryant-Simmons-Odom-Villanueva-Bynum that would be able to push around and run past most defenses. The Bucks would only have to suffer through one season of Kwame Brown’s act, and while Cook isn’t the same player as Villanueva he would fit in better as a 15-minute backup to Yi than Villanueva does. I think the Lakers do this deal in a hurry, and the $20 million in savings that it gets the Bucks makes them look long and hard at it too.

But if that deal makes the Bucks too thin at small forward then there is Villanueva to the Lakers for Cook, Sasha Vujacic and a #1 pick. There aren’t any major cap ramifications in this trade, as Vujacic’s deal expires and Villanueva and Cook’s contracts are similar. But it gets Villanueva into a much better position to succeed and adds a future draft pick to the Bucks stable. As a favor to Charlie V, I think both teams would do this trade.

So there you have it — 29 teams to trade with, 14 trade scenarios and maybe two deals that would satisfy both teams. No wonder teams don’t make many trades and fans always complain about teams’ inactivity. Between the salary cap restrictions and the fact that an NBA roster is so small compared to other sports, it’s nearly impossible to come up with good trades. But I kind of like the Golden State and Lakers proposals. At the very least it’s fun to come up with these combos, but the moral of the story is … don’t sign lousy backup centers to $40 million deals.