The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Back in July I wrote a Central Division preview, and now it’s time for an update. My basic premise is the same: This division has 3 of the 4 best teams in the conference, and in the end the Bulls are going to be the Eastern Conference champions.

This article refers to IPM, which is available here.

1: Chicago: The Bulls survived their first “scare” of the season as Joe Smith finally played in the last 3 games of the preseason. However, that’s about as bad as it gets for them. This team is good, deep, and can match up with anyone.

The question everyone has about the Bulls is, “Where is the low-post scoring going to come from.” I think that is such a tired argument. While the Bulls don’t have an Eddy Curry, their offense is designed around their talent perfectly well. The offense is predicated on movement and doesn’t stagnate around a post player who needs his touches. This is a top-10 offense and will get plenty of inside points from their rotation of big men, plus the ever-expanding game of Luol Deng. The usefulness of Ben Wallace as a post player cannot be underestimated, either. Of course Wallace never shoots on inside plays, but he is an exceptionally good passer who can get touches and quickly get rid of the ball without the offense losing its flow. It’s not like the Bulls offense is simply whipping it around the perimeter. They get post touches, just not shots or points.

In my efforts to pinpoint one “bust out” player this season, all my numbers point to Tyrus Thomas. Thomas amassed an amazing number of rebounds, blocks and steals in his limited minutes last year, and his defense was spectacularly good. Thomas’ defensive IPM ranked as the 9^th best in all of basketball, and his combined IPM was third best on the Bulls last season. Clearly he has the defensive ability and the athleticism to be a star, he just needs the offensive game. Well, he has shot 54% from the field and 72% from the line in the preseason; both major improvements from last year. Watch out.

The one major worry is Ben Wallace , his game has obviously started to slip, as he has seen several years of declines in points, rebounds and blocks. However, some of his skills have remained in full effect , namely his ability to avoid committing fouls. He makes defense so much easier for his teammates because of his ability to challenge and harass shots without fouling, which frees up his teammates to play much tighter on their men , knowing that if they get beat, Wallace has their back. However, that cannot continue forever, and should Wallace suddenly have trouble staying on the floor, that could prove to be the Chicago achillies heel.

The Bulls have a lot going for them, but most of all is the consistency on the coaching staff and in the front office. The end result is a team that is extremely good, well-constructed, and ready to make a run to the finals. I call it a 55 win season.

2: Cleveland: I’m sure that the GM’s of every other NBA team are praying that the Cavs win their stare down with Dan Fegan over Anderson Varejao. Fegan and Varejao are demanding a $10 million/year contract, which would throw the Cavs well into the luxury tax realm and would set a precedent that no other GM wants to see: $10 million/year to a guy who averaged 6 points and 6 rebounds per game. But here’s the thing: in terms of how valuable he is to the Cavs, Varejao is worth that kind of money.

Varejao was the 8^th best defensive player in the game last season, by defensive IPM, and was the key to one of the best team defenses in the league. Defense was the real reason the Cavs made it to the finals last year , LeBron James was the only thing they had going for them on offense. Varejao came off the bench but was always on the court in the 4^th quarter, led the league in charges taken, and was an annoying pest that had a habit of coming up with big loose balls and offensive rebounds. This team needs him badly, because other than LeBron and about 20 good minutes a night from Zydrunas Ilgauskas then this team has nothing. Of course that’s not quite true , Drew Gooden is pretty effective offensively, and Daniel Gibson’s hot playoffs may not have been a fluke, but the overall talent level here is a problem.

I always felt that this team was set to take a step back as their best player had no offseason (yet again) and there’s no help on the roster for him, but without Varejao and (to a lesser extent) Sasha Pavlovic, who is also holding out, the Cavs will be looking at a much worse regular season. They’ll win 50 with Varejao, 45 if they don’t resign him or fail to do something else to bring in some help for LeBron.

3: Detroit: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this team looked old and slow at the end of the year. They hammered Orlando in round 1 of the playoffs, jumped all over the Bulls for 3 games, and then hit the proverbial wall. For a while it looked like the Bulls might be able to get back into the series; and then after 2 close wins, Cleveland lowered the boom on them.

The concern was how run down the Pistons lineup looked at the end of the playoffs. Chauncey Billups had a horrible postseason , which doesn’t bode well as he signed a new contract , and Rasheed Wallace typically had his mind on the officials more than the game, as he shot 5-14 and unsurprisingly got ejected from the season-ending loss after fouling out (in a nice show of team spirit, Richard Hamilton did the same thing). It’s not a good sign for the oldest starting 5 in the league to roll over like that. They also lost Chris Webber, and now depend on a tag-team of Nazr Mohammed and Antonio McDyess to man the middle. So who backs up the other 4 starters?

Joe Dumars is trying to remake the roster while still remaining competitive, so there isn’t much in the way of proven help on the bench. After Lindsey Hunter and Jason Maxiell, the bench is made up of rookies Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo. But the guy to watch out for is Amir Johnson.

Johnson turned pro out of high school a couple of years ago and was a second round pick. He’s a 6’9″, 210 pound forward who put up absolutely sick numbers in the NBDL and in very limited NBA minutes has performed well (he got only 2 games of 20+ minutes last year, but responded with double-doubles in both). He was a free agent this offseason, but the Pistons thought enough of him to resign him to a 3 year, $11 million contract. He’s the guy to watch for — you heard it here first.

I’m so sick of this team , constant whining at the officials, perpetual “we get disrespected by the media/fans/officials/coaching staff/caterers” complaining, and that dammed PA announcer “¦ This starting lineup is too old and the bench is too young, and this is the year that they slide. I hope I’m right. They are still a playoff team, but I don’t think they win more than 44.

4: Milwaukee: I’ll write a longer Bucks preview in a couple of days, but suffice it to say that this team is pretty much guaranteed the 4^th spot in the division. They could be anywhere from the 5^th to the 12^th best team in the conference, but they are sandwiched between three playoff teams and one rebuilding job. Anywhere from 32 to 42 wins will leave the Bucks in this spot.

5: Indiana: Larry Bird, are you still around here somewhere? The Pacers are stuck with the payroll of a team in a 3-year championship contention window ($52 million committed for 2009/10) but the talent level of a lottery team. It’s tough to rebuild when you owe over $100 million over the next 4 years to 3 players that nobody else would want , Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley.

The result of having a front office that either doesn’t know what it is doing or doesn’t know what it wants to do is this team: their best player is going around saying he wants to be traded, their big free agent signing is Travis Diener, and they brought 3 guys off their bench in their last preseason game that I have never heard of.

This team is going nowhere, and I think they will spend the season trying to figure out how good their young guys are (Danny Granger, Ike Diogu, and Shawne Williams) and how to get rid of everyone else.
My guess is that they remain somewhat competitive for a couple of months, pull the trigger on a Jermaine O’Neal trade, and crater after that. I’m looking for 32 wins this year.