The Bratwurst – Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Now that Yi Jianlian is officially coming to Milwaukee, what can we expect from him this year?

First of all, I am completely convinced that he is 22 and not 19 years old. As baseball has proven for years, it is not uncommon for players to fudge their age. It is also a common practice in countries that place a lot of emphasis on international competition, as Under-21 World Championships are often hotly contested. It was rumored that Turkish authorities lowered Ersan Ilyasova’s age, and there is plenty of evidence that the Chinese have done the same with Yi.

As Bob Wolfley reported in the Journal-Sentinel, there is a Chinese social security office with a public record of Yi being born in 1984 instead of 1987, plus other evidence exists that Yi is 22.

So lets assume that where there’s smoke there’s fire, and that Yi’s age is more comparable to a college senior entering the NBA rather than a one-and-done freshman.

What was visible in the NBA Summer League? First the good: Yi is clearly athletic enough to get up and down the floor and move without the ball. His shooting form is solid and looks a little like Nowitzki’s. His body type is kind of Charlie Villanueva with shorter arms, so he doesn’t have Charlie V’s ballhandling ability but has a tighter looking jump shot. Yi shot poorly in the summer league but did a very nice job of getting to the line, where he clearly has excellent free throw form and will probably be 75%+ from the foul line.

However he does not seem to be too terribly physical on the boards, repeatedly being pushed well away from the basket by smaller, borderline NBA players. That is a red flag to me, as I believe that rebounders are born, not made.

In the Chinese league last year, Yi averaged 26 ppg and 10 rebs. How good is the chinese league compared to, say, NCAA ball? Lets say it’s similar to low-major D-1 college. Like the WAC, for example. Yi’s CBA numbers last season were pretty similar to Paul Millsap’s final season at Louisiana Tech (20 ppg, 12 rpg) and in 18 mpg Millsap’s 6.8/5.2 rookie NBA season was quite solid.

Yi wont be the rebounder that Millsap is, but should shoot at a high percentage and score much more.

So the next question is: how much time will Yi get on the court?

The problem with starting Yi and giving him big minutes is the Charlie Villanueva factor. Villanueva is a better player than Yi will initially be, and Charlie V’s intensity and attitude have been question marks in the past. For this team to win they need Villanueva’s head in the game and that means that if he deserves playing time he has to get it.

There has been talk of using Villanueva at the 3 in a Bogut-Yi-V frontcourt, but I don’t think that will work too well. Most of the NBA’s best players are at the 2 and 3 spots on the floor, and a combination of Michael Redd and Villanueva guarding the LeBron/Wade/Kobe/McGrady/Deng’s of the game would get killed on the defensive end night in and night out. Toronto tried the Bosh/Villanueva combo for one season before giving up on playing them together. I don’t think it will work here.

So that means about 20 minutes available for Yi (15 behind Villanueva and 5 at center behind Bogut). Back to my Paul Millsap comparison, Millsap only took 5 shots per game, and I’m sure Yi would double that and also get to the line more effectively. However I don’t see Yi as much more than half the rebounder that Millsap is.

So here’s my prediction: 20 MPG, 47% shooting (like Nowitzki at 22), 80% FT, 13 ppg, 4 rpg, much struggling on defense.

If he shoots that high a percentage then he’ll be a valuable backup on what should be a pretty competetive team.