The draft is just four days away and it seems that many people feel that since the Bucks didn’t get a top-2 selection then the offseason will be a failure. However, I don’t believe that to be true. The Bucks have a young core that is actually in a very good spot , if the right player falls to them at #6 then they could reap major rewards in coming seasons, and that player should be able to help make them a playoff team next year. But who will be available? Who is the right guy for the team? After Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, who are the Bucks looking at in the draft this year? And whomever they grab, will it make much of a difference?
I’m going to run down the most likely candidates for the #6 pick and what sort of value they would provide to the Bucks.
Obviously the #1 and #2 picks are Oden and Durant. It appears that Al Horford (21 y/o, 13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg) has become the frontrunner for the #3 pick. I find it a little humorous that in a column titled “Bucks Need a Big Splash on Draft Day“, Michael Hunt proclaims that in order for the Bucks to remain relevant in Milwaukee they need to trade up for a power forward whose strengths are defense and rebounding. Sexy. He is correct that Horford’s skills are exactly what the Bucks need but even if they do get him I can’t imagine the season ticket salesmen’s phones would start ringing after the draft. Horford will be a solid player for years , just not on the Bucks. If he’s the consensus #3 pick then Atlanta or Memphis (I’m sure Atlanta will find a way to screw this up) won’t give the pick away. Even if the Bucks do want to trade up, the disadvantage of having so much cap room this offfseason is that they don’t have many reasonable bargaining chips to try to make a deal.   Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 1%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 100%.
It’s unfortunate that Horford’s teammate Joakim Noah (22 y/o, 12 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.8 bpg) refused to work out for the Bucks and apparently is doing all he can to make sure he either goes to the Bulls or slides out of the lottery altogether. Give him a little credit , he’s wealthy, worldly and understands that he’d rather be playing on a good team in a big city than slogging it out on a bad team. He has a big mouth and seems to be the perfect sort of player who people love to hate unless he’s on your team. I’ve heard him derisively described as “Dan Gadzuric with better hands”, but the thing is that if Danny G had better hands then he’d be a pretty darn good player. Noah (like Gadzuric) runs the floor well, never quits throwing his body around, and can’t shoot. He’s a dirty work guy –the sort of guy that good teams need — and would be a perfect addition to the Bucks, if he only wanted to come here. Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 80%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 0%.
The next top power forward is Brandan Wright (19 y/o, 14.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg); a long, lanky, soft power forward who , unlike Marvin Williams (the last freshman 4 to come out of UNC) — could actually get off the bench for Roy Williams. The last time the Bucks used a mid-lottery pick on a player of his body type and skill set was Marcus Haislip. We all know how that worked out, but I guess the one difference is that , nothing against Haislip , apparently Wright is a very smart kid with a solid work ethic. He needs to gain weight and strength, but he’s only 19 years old. He’s not a great shooter but is crafty around the basket and a pretty athletic shot blocker. It’s a risky pick but the potential for a great player is there , he’s pretty similar to a 19 year old Chris Bosh. A skinny 4 who sometimes gets pushed around is a risk, but a player with this combination of size and athleticism doesn’t come along very often. Wright may be a bust, but may eventually become the third best player to come out of this draft.  If available, I think Wright is the pick at #6. There aren’t that many free agent power forwards available but some quality small forwards, and since the Bucks should be a fairly decent team next year they can afford to wait a year or two for Wright to really blossom. Boston already has a young 4 in place in Al Jefferson, so if Memphis passes on Wright he should still be there at #6.  Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 70%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 80%.Â
Nobody is a bigger question mark than Yi Jianlian (somewhere between 19 and 23 y/o, Chinese League 2005 stats: 20.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg) and lets face it , most of the media has no idea how good this guy is or even how old he truly is. Since baseball’s experience seems to have been that if a player is rumored to be older than he claims he probably is, my guess is that Yi’s not as young as he claims. Tossing the “is he 19 or 23″ debate aside, can he really play? I don’t know. But I found a post on the Scout.com Knicks message board from a poster named Koji who has actually seen him play. Two things jump out at me:
“The first (thing) is that the guy is not a rebounder. He got boxed out Jason Collins style by a couple of guys who are never going to play in the NBA.”Â
And then:
“I don’t know where the reports of this guy comfortably hitting 18-20 foot jump shots are coming from. He missed a lot of shots from out there and I don’t recall him hitting a trey. At one point he got drilled by fans who were screaming at him in Chinese to take it to the basket.”
There’s also a YouTube highlight video of him that doesn’t impress me at all. It shows him mostly dunking on guys who are about 6 inches shorter than him and none of the highlights show him being double teamed. I think Yi is more hype than substance.   But rumors are that Boston and Memphis love him and the Bulls want to trade up for him. From the Bucks perspective, it’s all a moot point anyway. As previously posted, Yi has refused to work out for the Bucks. Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 40%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 0%.
It seems that there are two types of people who want the Bucks to grab Mike Conley II (Not jr. , the second, thank you very much) (19 y/o, 11.3 ppg. 3.4 rpg, 6.1 apg): “the grass is greener” types who think he is going to be a better “pure point guard” than Mo Williams and the “I want insurance in case Mo leaves” people. The problem with the insurance idea is that the Bucks cannot negotiate with Williams until after the draft. So unless they have reason to believe that he is going to leave, why bother taking Conley? He’s not leaving , the only teams who can offer him more than the midlevel are Orlando and Charlotte, and both of them have young point guards. So what about the argument that Conley is actually a better player than Williams? Point guards always (Chris Paul excepted) take at least 1 year to blossom into an adequate player. Jason Kidd, Deron Williams, Mike Bibby , all of them struggled in year one. Some , like Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups , take closer to 5 years to figure it all out. So if the Bucks are planning on making a playoff run next year they are better off not turning the reigns over to a rookie, especially when they have a perfectly good player already in place. The other problem with Conley: he’s an awful shooter. That lefty J turned him into a 30% 3-point shooter last year, and if he can’t shoot then he becomes pretty easy for the best athletes in the game to defend him. And it’s not like he’s likely to improve that jumper of his since, like Inigo Montoya, “I “¦ am not left-handed!” Or, as Conley’s father explains it:
“Michael is right-handed,” Conley Sr. said. “He never really developed a shot with his right hand as far as squaring up and shooting, but he actually shoots better with his right hand than he does with his left. So any time he’s not square, it’s easier for him to use his right hand, so the runner is a natural shot.”Â
 I know that Conley is an amazing athlete, but how good a shooter are you supposed to become if you are going out of your way to make the game tougher?
 I have one other problem with Conley , the level of his competition. He may be a fantastic athlete but the Big 10 was simply awful this year. According to NBADraft.net, the list of Big 10 players likely to be drafted consists of Oden, Conley, Daquean Cook (another teammate of Conley’s) and Alando Tucker. That’s it. It’s not like Conley was routinely facing other guards who had NBA-level talent. I had the same issue with Adam Morrison , that he was dominating subpar competition , and I think Conley will struggle to adjust to the level of play in the same way.
So, to sum up (ah, Princess Bride), the only reason to take Conley is as part of a trade. But that’s a subject for another article. Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 60%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 5%.
The other Florida guy is Corey Brewer (21 y/o, 13.2 ppg, 2.9 apg, 1.9 spg), who I simply don’t think will be a very good fit on the Bucks. At 6’8″, 185 he really REALLY needs to gain some weight (I know this is the same issue as with Brandan Wright, but Wright is 19 years old and Brewer 21) and while he is supposed to be an amazing defender I have a hard time seeing how he can hold any sort of defensive position against the 220-250 pound 3′s that he would have to guard. There’s only one spot for a lanky, skinny backcourt defender on the floor and Michael Redd has that one locked up. Brewer’s offensive game is also very spotty , not that great a shooter, okay distributor. I just don’t see him fitting in very well. Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 75%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 15%.
Another small forward candidate is Jeff Green (20 y/o, 14.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.2 apg). He is big (6’9″, 235), has a well-developed all around game, and is a high-character guy. His college stats were probably suppressed by Georgetown’s Princeton offense, but Green shot a solid 52% from the floor. It’s worth noting that Herb Kohl attended the Bucks’ workout for Green in Washington DC. Additionally, Green apparently was undecided about staying in the draft until the very last minute, so he may have gotten a promise from someone that he was their pick. The question mark on Green is his footspeed, and he didn’t look particularly quick against Ohio State in the NCAA tournament. I admittedly don’t really know enough about him to make a definitive judgment, but given that Kohl saw his workout (which he does most players) makes me think that he has the edge over Julian Wright should the Bucks go for a small forward. Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 95%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 40%.
The final likely option is Julian Wright (20 y/o, 12 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg). Multi-talented, defensive-oriented, supposedly can’t shoot but still managed to shoot 55% from the floor this season. When a player has a significantly high shooting percentage it means one of two things , he’s either very efficient or he is horrible offensively and does nothing but ram home offensive rebounds. Wright is the former. Playing on a Kansas team that was loaded with offensive talent meant he was the one to concentrate on defense. That’s just fine for the Bucks. His strength is a bit of a question since he did poorly at the bench press at the NBA’s combine (as did Brandan Wright and Kevin Durant) but that doesn’t worry me too much. The bench press becomes dramatically more difficult for players as they get taller and have longer arms, because they have to raise the bar higher and their pectoral muscles become less compact. There’s a difference between being bench press strong and basketball strong.  Likelihood of him being available for the Bucks pick: 95%. Likelihood of them taking him if available: 20%.
In conclusion, I feel that the best options for the Bucks will be:
1-Â Â Â Â Â Â Al Horford
2-Â Â Â Â Â Â Brandan Wright
3-Â Â Â Â Â Â Julian Wright
Horford will not be available, and I feel that Brandan Wright is the best long-term prospect at power forward. With Ruben Patterson most likely leaving, then Julian Wright would offer the best combination of filling a team need and being unlikely to be a bust (I know I said that Jeff Green would probably be the pick here, but I just can’t come to a definitive opinion about him) but his ceiling probably isn’t that high. Two other reasons for taking Brandan Wright: the free agent market is much deeper at small forward than power forward and would give the team more flexibility in filling out the roster; and while Wright is probably the biggest boom or bust prospect in the whole draft, the Bucks have a good enough core that they won’t be completely sunk if he doesn’t pan out.Â
There’s also always the chance of making a trade , but as I said before, that’s for another article.
1 response so far ↓
1 Daniel // Aug 11, 2007 at 5:04 am
I have to say, that I could not agree with you in 100% regarding Draft Date Cometh, but it’s just my opinion, which could be wrong
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