The Bratwurst - Milwaukee Bucks Blog

Something about this whole Yi pick doesn’t feel right. He didn’t come to Milwaukee today for the traditional post-draft press conference and while he is not saying anything negative about being drafted by the Bucks he doesn’t sound very excited about coming, either. His agent Dan Fegan isn’t making any comments about him and Yi is headed straight to Chinese National Team practices (instead of taking a whole 12 hours to visit with the Milwaukee media).

But in the next-to-last paragraph of his (typically hilarious and spot-on) ESPN.com draft diary, Bill Simmons made a good point that I’m surprised that I didn’t pick up on first:

Also, G-State dealt Jason Richardson to Charlotte for the rights to Brandan Wright, one of those moves that has “the first step in another trade in which G-State gets Yi” written all over it.

There was a rumor before the draft which had the Bucks trading Yi for Jason Richardson (which didn’t work under the salary cap for a predraft trade, and wouldn’t make any sense for Milwaukee, anyway). Now is Brandan Wright going to wind up a Buck?

Charlotte did Golden State a huge favor by taking Richardson, because with several of their young players close to extensions (Matt Barnes is an unrestricted free agent, Mickeal Pietrus a restricted free agent, Monta Ellis will be a FA after next year and Andris Biedrins a FA the year after that) and so much money owed to Baron Davis and Richardson that the Warriors were in danger of having their salary structure spiral close to $100 million in a couple of years. Michael Jordan and Herb Kohl have done business together before — in 2003 Jordan almost bought a controlling interest in the Bucks, and the story is that TJ Ford was actually his pick before the ownership deal fell through after the draft.

Could there be a deal in place where the Bucks send Yi to Golden State for, say, Brandan Wright and the Warriors 2008 first round pick? In return for facilitating the deal by taking Richardson, do the Bucks now not pursue Gerald Wallace all that agressively?

Just wondering, but the more I think about this draft pick, the more I think that Yi will never wear the green and red.

The second most mistifying move of Draft Night (#1 being the Knicks getting Zach Randolph) had to be Charlotte trading Brandan Wright for Jason Richardson.  Apparently Michael Jordan wanted a cluth, go-to jump shooter (sort of like when he traded Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse) and Richardson, being the lynchpin to several 25-30 win seasons for Golden State was his guy.

This makes you wonder where Gerald Wallace fits in with them.  Charlotte still has plenty of freedom under the cap to resign Wallace (and has his Bird Rights), but where does Adam Morrison fit in here?  Wallace can play some shooting guard but Morrison cannot.  Are they turning Wallace loose and going with a starting five of Felton-Richardson-Morrison-May-Okafor?

I feel that Morrison is barely an NBA player but Michael Jordan is the one who invested a pick in him … he has more reason to force him into the starting lineup over a player — Wallace — that he had nothing to do with obtaining.

This is clearly Milwaukee’s potential gain, since they are the most logical destination for him.

Hopefully I’m right about this.

The Bucks’ second round pick is a point guard with good size (6′3″, 200) and decent scoring/distributing ability (12.3 ppg, 4.7 apg). He rebounds well for his size (4.7 rpg).  He was a 3 year starter for Nevada, and was considered a likely candidate to return to school after declaring for the NBA Draft, but since running mate Nick Fazekas was out of eligibility, going pro made some sense.

The problem with Sessions is that he has very poor form on his jumper, leading to inconsistency.  In his final 10 college games he scored in double figures 6 times, but had only 2 points in 3 of the remaining 4 games.  He played for a WAC team, so the jury is still out on his ability to handle tougher competition.

He wont pay dividends this year, especially since the point guard position will most likely be manned by Mo Williams with Lynn Greer and Charlie Bell providing the backup minutes.  Most likely he spends the season in the D-League trying to get that J straightened out.  If he can, then he might become a capable backup in a year or two.

 

Alright, I gotta admit, I’m kind of psyched for the Bucks to take Yi Jianlian … because it meant I get to use that headline.

Seriously, this has to be one of the most bizarre picks I’ve ever seen.  Larry Harris stakes his job on a pick that refused to work out for him?  A pick who may be as many as 4 years older than he claims?  What’s next, the Brewers add Danny Almonte as a middle reliever?

Lets look at this pick from a mathematical perspective.  Yi is an offensive-minded “4″ who apparently has 3 point range and doesn’t play much defense or rebound.  He’s probably 22.  He’s Charlie Villanueva.  What are the odds that Yi will be a bust? Lets charitably say 20%.  What are the odds he will be an All-Star?  Once again, lets charitably say 20%.  So there’s a 60% chance he will be an okay NBA player.  Therefore there is an 80% chance that he will not be better than Charlie V!

Look, I’m not just writing here to pick away at a guy I’ve never seen play.  I’m a Bucks season ticket holder.  I want them to do well. But this pick ….. Wait, at this very moment, as I type this, I just realized the true genius of this move.

Drafting Yi (assuming the Chinese government doesn’t pull him back) will be a financial windfall for the Bucks.  Jersey sales.  International television rights.  Logo usage rights.  The Bucks had the 3rd lowest revenue of any NBA team last year and are desperate to sell more season tickets this year.  Well, they just drafted a whole new revenue stream.

One that will significantly improve the financial standing of the Bucks and just may keep them in Milwaukee once Herb Kohl sells the team.

The business opportunities from drafting Yi were enough that Atlanta almost took him — even though he’d be a horrible fit for them.  Say he’s worth an extra $20 million in jersey sales and whatnot.  That stuff isn’t included in basketball related income – the numbers that teams use when they go crying to city councils about how they need a new stadium – it goes straight to ownerships’ pocket.  That completely changes the financial picture for the Bucks, and when Kohl sells the team he will then probably be able to pick an ownership group that is willing to keep the team in Milwaukee and continue dealing with the Bradley Center Sports and Entertainment Corporation over their lease in exchange for the cash flow that results from having Yi.

What’s awesome about this whole thing is that Senator Kohl might have to use diplomatic channels to get the Chinese authorities to allow Yi to come to Milwaukee (since he didn’t go to one of his preferred markets).  Imagine that: “Okay, so you let Yi play, we guarantee him 30 mpg and for every point he averages we agree to eliminate tariffs on one ton of raw steel imports.”

Thanks Senator! You saved the NBA in Milwaukee!

At least, I hope that’s the logic.  Because otherwise, this is a pretty strange pick.  Not going to call it a bad pick before seeing him play, but a strange pick.

Yi Jianlian is now a Buck after Larry took him with the sixth pick in the draft.  What do you think?

A special hello to the millions of Chinese people who are Googling Milwaukee.

Because of the myriad restrictions in the NBA salary cap, it is far more difficult to consummate trades than most people think.  Because of this it is almost pointless to create trade rumors because there is usually a reason that the deal cannot be completed, and even if it could, the proposition is usually so one-sided that one team would never do the deal anyway.

That said … here are 3 reasonable proposals that I believe would significantly improve the Bucks.

1)       Andrei Kirilenko and Utah’s first rounder (#25) for Bobby Simmons and Charlie Villanueva

The Jazz have been rumored to be shopping Kirilenko for several weeks for a couple of reasons.  One is that he was forced to move to small forward this season with the return to health /emergence of Carlos Boozer.  As a result, Kirilenko’s production took a major slide.  Offensively he simply doesn’t shoot well enough to help the team much from the outside, and defensively guarding smaller, quicker forwards away from the basket takes away his strength – his incredible ability to block shots and get steals by jumping in from the weak side. 

The other reason the Jazz want to move Kirilenko is that he is overpaid.  He has 4 yrs/$60 mil left on his contract and while that isn’t necessarily a problem it becomes one when the Jazz look down the road and realize that in 2 years they will have to extend Deron Williams and probably Boozer.  They currently have $51 million committed to only 5 players for 2008-09 (including Kirilenko but not including an extension for Williams).  This trade would significantly alleviate their salary cap problems.

By sending Bobby Simmons and Charlie Villanueva to the Jazz, Utah would save $30 million.  Simmons would replace Kirilenko with a player who is a much better shooter and no slouch defensively (although he is certainly no Kirilenko).  Charlie V gives them an inexpensive backup for all 3 frontcourt positions, and someone big who could really run well with Deron Williams (incidentially, Villanueva originally committed to the University of Illinois as a High School Junior, only to de-commit when Bill Self left for the Kansas job).

From the Bucks perspective they would address the team’s major weakness – defense.  Kirilenko is probably the best defensive player in basketball.  His help ability covers for the mistakes of all of his teammates and he makes every fast break (for the other team) interesting because nobody is better at swatting away layups from behind.  Offensively, he’s crafty around the basket but not a great shooter, which doesn’t matter so much because that is a skill that plenty of other Bucks are already adept at.  At #6 the Bucks would still be able to take a starter-level small forward (Jeff Green, Julian Wright or Al Thornton) and at #25 several interesting prospects should still be available (Alando Tucker, Marc Gasol, Josh McRoberts).

The problem with this deal is the health of Simmons.  The fact that he didn’t play last year would probably be a deal-breaker, but Kirilenko has never been a picture of health either.  This would be a ballsy move by both Milwaukee and Utah, and I’d like to see it happen.

2)       Marvin Williams and Atlanta’s second pick (#11) for Earl Boykins and the #6 pick (Mike Conley)

Atlanta needs a point guard.  Atlanta loves those 6’10� guys who can get up and down the floor.  Atlanta wants Al Horford.  Atlanta has young power forwards galore in Shelden Williams and Marvin Williams.

From Atlanta’s perspective, this deal might let them undo the damage made by passing on Chris Paul 2 years ago while also allowing them to get the player – Horford – they really want in this year’s draft.  They could add Conley as well, giving them a young starting 5 (Conley, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Horford, Shelden Williams) that could really blossom in a year or two.  Boykins opts out of the final year of his contract and becomes a free agent, saving Atlanta $3 million.

The Bucks would add a 21-year old Marvin Williams plus get a small forward that they might have considered at #6 (Julian Wright, Al Thornton, or Thaddeus Young).  By all accounts Williams is a good kid with a solid work ethic, and a good bet to eventually reach his all-star potential.  He’d be a solid backup power forward immediately, and could offer the Bucks a strong bargaining chip in 2 years when he and Villanueva are eligible for extensions.  Not bad, considering the Bucks might still be able to draft the player they would have taken anyway (Julian Wright).

3)       3-way trade: Bucks receive LaMarcus Aldridge, Sergio Rodriguez, Phoenix’s first pick (#24).  Portland receives the #6 pick (Mike Conley) and Marcus Banks.  Phoenix receives Earl Boykins

It seems like a lot for Portland to give up, but there’s a good reason I bring this deal up: Mike Conley Sr is both Greg Oden’s and his son’s agent.  Oden and Conley, jr have played together since grade school and Conley’s Dad is doing everything he can to try and see that relationship continue.  With Portland getting Oden and being stuck with Zach Randolph, Aldridge is somewhat redundant.  Also, with Jarret Jack as the starting point guard and Mike Conley joining the team, Rodriguez is also stuck down the depth chart.  Portland gives up a lot here, but if it nets them an eventual starting point guard plus a happier Greg Oden, I think they’d like it.

Phoenix’s participation in this deal is necessary because the Bucks traded their first round pick last year and therefore are required to have one this season.  The Suns are desperately trying to get under the luxury tax threshold and rid themselves of the Marcus Banks mistake, and this deal would help with both.  Boykins might opt out of his deal, saving Phoenix $3 million this season (in addition to the $15 million remaining on Banks’ contract), or could also stay with them and really do well in that system.

The Bucks would get Aldridge – a post-playing shot-blocker who could complement Andrew Bogut exceptionally well – and Rodriguez, who is nicknamed “Spanish Chocolate� for his Jason “White Chocolate� Williams-style passing (before Williams’ knee injuries).  Both players are under 22 years old and could blossom in the next couple of years.  Of major concern is the heart condition that caused Aldridge’s season to be shut down early this year, but apparently he will be at full strength next year.

3 deals that improve the Bucks both immediately and long-term.  Okay, Larry Harris – what’s your next move?

Okay, so you are Gerald Wallace, and you play for one of the more messed-up organizations in the NBA (which is really saying something).  You are the highest-paid player on your squad at $5.2 mil/yr, which was actually below the midlevel exception.  In 2005-06 you had one of the most well-rounded statistical seasons in NBA history (15 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 2.5 spg, 2.1 bpg).  And then your team drafts a player — Adam Morrison – who not only plays your position, but who really sucks.  And your team sits with a $41 million payroll, about 2/3 of the salary cap.  Oh, not to mention, you are only 24 years old and just scratching your potential.  Where’s the love?

 Obviously, it’s time for you to become a free agent.  Which he has.

This is a very interesting (if expected) opportunity for the Bucks.  Orlando is the only other team (besides Charlotte) that is going to be far enough below the salary cap to be able to offer Wallace a contract in the $10/$12 million range.  And Wallace would be perfect in Milwaukee.  He doesn’t shoot much but has shot over 50% for the last two seasons, making him a very efficient scorer even while only being a 65% free throw shooter.  He rebounds exceptionally well for his position.  He is a spectacular gambling defender, racking up steal and block totals with abandon (although his man defense suffers somewhat from his swiping at other players).

 The only problem is that he plays for a team that can offer him a max deal with ease.  And they might have to.  Charlotte is so far under the salary cap that they might actually have trouble reaching the league minimum if they lose Wallace.

It’s a foregone conclusion that the Bucks will offer Wallace as much as they can afford, and that the Bobcats will as well (for more money and more years than the Bucks can).  The question is: does money talk, or is Gerald Wallace tired of the atmosphere in Charlotte?

The Bucks will be hosting a free draft party at the Bradley Center starting at 5:30 pm (one hour before the draft begins). 

I went to one of these in 1993 at the Cap Center.  What a great time we had with the unfolding drama of the Chris Webber for Anfernee Hardaway trade, the JR Rider Insanity Express making its first stop in Minnesota, and the overwhelming rush of ambivalence when the Bullets took Calbert Chaney.  It was a blast.

I have a feeling that there wont be much opportunity to boo this year (except when Alando Tucker goes to San Antonio with what should have been the Bucks second round pick … you heard it here first!).  There will be an exciting player available at #6, and it will be fun to see who it is in person.

Also, the Bucks are offering a drawing for a 10-pack of season tickets to whomever can pick the top ten selections.  Nice deal.

 

If teams were to draft bloggers instead of players this year, Winning The Turnover Battle predicts this is how it would go down.  It looks like The Bratwurst would have to be pulling a Ben Wallace as an undrafted free agent.

ESPN is reporting that the Associated Press is reporting that Earl Boykins will opt out of the final year of his contract.  They have kind of a funny way of confirming the story — Larry Harris told ESPN that he hadn’t heard from Boykins yet (Boykins has until Saturday to tell Harris he intends to return) and Boykins’ agent wouldn’t return calls.

Anyway, that’s great — by leaving then the Bucks will have the most cap flexibility possible.  They could even trade him as part of a draft-day deal to a team that wouldn’t want to take on his salary for next year.

I, for one, am glad that Boykins will be leaving.  He’s a nice player and a great story, but you can’t win with a player like him getting big minutes.  For all the mismatches his size creates offensively, it creates even bigger problems with his defense that blow up the entire team’s schemes.  He’s constantly posted up by whomever is guarding him, forcing double teams and leaving open men.  You can’t hide him in a zone, either, because that just allows the opposition to choose who they want to attack him with.

Having Boykins certainly didn’t help the Bucks win at all.  But maybe now that he’s going to opt-out and could become a valuable salary cap-loophole creator in a trade, maybe something positive will end up coming out of his Bucks tenure.